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SOCIALPROTECTION&JOBS

DISCUSSIONPAPER

No.2304|JUNE2023

SocialProtectioninaWorldofCrisis: LearningfromtheResponsetotheCOVID-19PandemicinEasternEuropeandtheSouthCaucasus

SarahColl-Black,CorneliusvonLenthe,StefanieBrodmann,WilliamShaw,JudithSandford,AlejandroGonzalez,andJameleRigolini

ThisprojectisfundedbytheEuropeanUnion.

Project41595

Abstractretrogeometricbackground:©iS/marigold_88

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Socialprotectioninaworldofcrisis:Learning

fromtheresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicinEasternEuropeandtheSouthCaucasus

SarahColl-Black,CorneliusvonLenthe,StefanieBrodmann,WilliamShaw,Judith

Sandford,AlejandroGonzalez,andJameleRigolini

Abstract

ThispaperexploresthesocialprotectionresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicinArmenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,MoldovaandUkrainetolearnlessonsonhowtobuildtheresilienceoftheirsocialprotectionsystem.Thesecountriesmadesubstantialeffortstoaddressthemostseriousconsequencesofthepandemic,pragmaticallyharnessingexistingprogramstoreachvulnerablegroups,whilealsointroducinginnovationstofillgapsintheexistingsocialprotectionsystem.Rigiditiesinadministrativesystems,complexeligibilitycriteria,aswellasweaknessesininformationsystems,limitedgovernments’abilitytoquicklyidentifyandreachthosehouseholdsthatweremostvulnerabletotheimpactofthepandemicwithadequatesupport.Thesechallengesstrengthenthecaseforinvestmentincrisispreparedness–mostimmediatelybyimprovingthefunctioningofsocialprotectionsystemsandsettingoutthedesignfeaturesanddeliverysystemstosupportaresponsetofuturecovariateshocks.

JELCodes:H53,H55,H84,I3,O12,O52,O57

KeyWords:SocialSafetyNets,Resilience,AdaptiveSocialProtection,COVID-19,SocialProtection,SocialAssistance,ActiveLaborMarketPrograms,SocialInsurance,UnemploymentBenefits,Shocks

Acknowledgements

ThispaperhasbeenpreparedbySarahColl-Black,CorneliusvonLenthe,StefanieBrodmann,WilliamShaw,JudithSandford,AlejandroGonzalez,andJameleRigolini.MuchoftheanalysisreliesonbackgroundnotesforeachcountrypreparedbySusannaKarapetyan(Armenia),IsaAliyev(Azerbaijan),DavidOkropiridze(Georgia),SinchetruAlexandru,OlgaKupets(Moldova)andKatyaMaynzyuk(Ukraine).JudithSandfordandAlejandroGonzalezauthoredasetofnotesontheresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicinAustralia,Chile,MexicoandtheUnitedKingdomthatinformthischapter.TheteamisgratefulforadditionalinputsandcommentsprovidedbyAnastasiiaAkulenko,LuciaSolbesCastro,EfsanNasOzden,GozdeMeseliTeague,LucianBucurPop,MaddalenaHonorati,MireyOvadiya,RenataMayerGukovas,RobertoClaudioSormani,RomanZhukovskyi,andSirmaSeker.

ThisreportwaspreparedundertheguidanceofFadiaSaadah(RegionalDirector,HumanDevelopment,EuropeandCentralAsiaRegion),ArupBanerji(CountryDirector,EasternEurope),SebastianMolineus(CountryDirector,SouthCaucasus),andCemMete(PracticeManager,SocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPractice,EuropeandCentralAsiaRegion).ItalsobenefittedfromvaluablefeedbackfromCarynBredenkamp,CarolinGeginat,MattiaMakovec,SarahMichael,HarryPatrinos,MersedehTariverdi,WilliamWisemanandLevent

Yener.

TheteamwouldalsoliketothankrepresentativesoftheEuropeanCommissionforusefulfeedbackandinputs,inparticularHoaBinhAdjemian,ThibaultCharletandCorinneDeleu.ThenotewasmadepossiblebygenerousfundingfromDGNEAR’sEurope2020TrustFund.

Acronyms

ALMPs

ActiveLaborMarketPrograms

AMD

ArmenianDram

ARM

Armenia

ASP

Adaptivesocialprotection

AZE

Azerbaijan

AZN

AzerbaijaniManat

DOST

SustainableandOperativeSocialProtectionAgency

DRM

Disasterriskmanagement

ECA

EuropeandCentralAsia

FB

FamilyBenefit

FLSEB

FamilyLivingStandardsEnhancementBenefit

GEL

GeorgianLari

GEO

Georgia

GMI

Guaranteedminimumincome

HUS

HousingUtilitySubsidy

IFE

EmergencyFamilyIncome

LRIS

LastResortIncomeSupport

MDA

Moldova

MDL

MoldovanLei

MIS

Managementinformationsystem

NEA

NationalEmploymentAgency

SARS

Severeacuterespiratorysyndrome

SESA

StateEmploymentSupportAgency

SMEs

Small-andmediumenterprises

SocialProtectionExpenditureandEvaluation

SPEED

Database

TSA

TargetedSocialAssistance

UAH

UkrainianHryvnia

UI

UnemploymentInsurance

UKR

Ukraine

USC

UnifiedSocialContribution

UnifiedDigitalApplicationandAppointmentsub-

VEMTAS

System

WS

Wagesubsidy

CONTENTS

Abstract i

Acknowledgements i

Acronyms i

Introduction 1

Settingthestage:boostingresiliencethroughshock-responsivesocialprotection 4

Abriefreviewoffoundationalsocialprotectionprograms 10

Thecrisisandtheemergencysocialprotectionresponse 18

Adaptingprogramdesign:respondingtoemergingneedsandnewlyvulnerablepopulations 27

Adaptingthedeliverychain:identification,enrollment,andprovisiontopeopleinneed 39

Betterpreparingforthenextcrisis:Buildingtheresilienceofthesocialprotectionsystem 46

References 52

Annex1:Emergencysocialprotectionprogramsadoptedduringthepandemic 59

ListofFigures

Figure1:Fourpillarsofeffectiveshockandcrisesresponses 7

Figure2:Modificationstosocialprotectionprograms 8

Figure3:Thesocialprotectiondeliverychain 9

Figure4:Socialprotectionspending(%ofGDP),countriesinECA,mostrecentyearavailable 11

Figure5:Employmentbyprofessionalstatus,15+years 14

Figure6:Coverageofsocialprotectionandsocialassistance,totalandpoorestquintile(Q1) 14

Figure7:Coverageandspendingofpoverty-targetedprograms,totalandpoorestquintile(Q1) 16

Figure8:Adequacyofsocialassistanceandpoverty-targetedprogramsforthepoorestquintile 17

Figure9:PercentagechangeinGDPbetweensecondquarterof2019andthesecondquarterof2020 19

Figure10:Estimatedlostworkinghoursinupper-middle-incomeECAcountriesduetoCOVID-19 19

Figure11:Additionalfinancingallocatedin2020toemergencysocialprotectionresponse 22

Figure12:Approximateallocationsofemergencyresourcesinthestudycountries 24

Figure13:Simulationofproportionallossshock 38

Figure14:Simulationofrandomlossshock 38

Figure15:Accesstotheinternet,2010and2020 43

Figure16:Accesstocomputers,2010and2020 43

ListofTables

Table1:Selectnotablenaturaldisastersinthestudycountries 2

Table2:Summarydescriptionofmainsocialprotectionschemesinthestudycountries 12

Table3:Socialprotectionresponsebytypeofworkerandtheiremploymentstatus 28

Table4:Numberofbeneficiariesreceivingpoverty-targetedsocialassistancein2020 37

ListofBoxes

Box1:DisasterRiskProfilesofthestudycountries 2

Box2:Socialprotectionsystems 5

Box3:Disasterriskmanagement(DRM)systemsinthestudycountries 13

Box4:InMoldova,householdsdrivenintopovertybythepandemicdifferedfromthepre-crisispoor 20

Box5:SocialcareservicesduringtheCOVID-19pandemic 26

Box6:Theimportanceofdesign:simulatingdifferentresponseoptionsinMoldova 38

Box7:Ukraine’sDiyaappfacilitatedapplicationsforunemploymentandsicknessbenefits 42

Box8:Facilitatingaccesstoanon-demandsocialassistanceprogram:thecaseofUniversalCredit 45

Box9:Rapidlyidentifyingaffectedhouseholdsthroughasocialregistry 49

Box10:FinancingthesocialprotectionresponsetoCOVID-19:thecaseoftheUnitedKingdom 50

1

Introduction

SocialprotectionprogramshaveplayedacentralroleintheresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemic.Acrosstheglobe,countriesharnessedsocialprotectionsystemstoprovidemuch-neededfinancialsupporttohouseholdsastheycontendedwithjobandincomelossesarisingfrompublic-healthmandatedlockdowns,aslowdowninglobaleconomicgrowth,andrestrictionsontravel.Inmanycountries,theprovisionofsocialprotectionsupporttohouseholdswascentraltotheoverallstrategyofensuringthatpeoplestayedhometomitigatethespreadofCOVID-19(NewYorkTimes2020;AminjonovandBernard2021).Socialprotectionsystemswerealsousedtodirectextraordinarysupporttohouseholdsthatwereparticularlyaffectedbythepandemic,suchasolderpeoplewhofacedenhancedriskofinfectionandthusneededbasicservicestobebroughttotheirhomes,orchildrenwhoseschoolingwasswitchedfromin-persontoremote,withacommensurateincreaseinthetimeburdenonfamilies,oftenmothers.

ThispaperexplorestheresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicandtheassociatedeconomicimpactsthroughthesocialprotectionsystemsinEasternEuropeandtheSouthCaucasus:Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,MoldovaandUkraine(henceforward“thestudycountries”).BylookingatthesocialprotectionsystemsbeforetheCOVID-19pandemicandconsideringwhatcountriesdidinresponsetothislarge-scalecrisis,weaimtogleanlessonsonhowtoimprovethepreparationofthesesystemsforfuturecrises.Thepaperisbasedonbackgroundpapersfromlocalexperts,focusgroupdiscussionswithsocialprotectionprogramrecipientsandsocialworkers,aquantitativesurveyinonecountry,andsomeadditionaldataandanalysis(onexpendituredataandsimulations).Wealsodrawonfourcasestudiesofthepandemicexperienceofupper-middle-andhigh-incomecountriesAustralia,Chile,MexicoandtheUnitedKingdom,aswellasregionalandglobalreviewsofthesocialprotectionresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemic.

Overall,theCOVID-19pandemicwasawakeupcallforthestudycountries–asitwasmorebroadlyacrosstheglobe–ontheurgentneedtoprepareforfutureshocksanddisasters.Thepandemicinducedamassiveeconomicshockthataffectedalargeshareoftheglobalpopulation.Despitethehistoricalimpactofinfluenza(suchastheSpanishflu)andrecentoccurrencesofotherseriousoutbreaksofdisease(includingsevereacuterespiratorysyndrome–SARS–andEbola),countriesallovertheworldweregenerallyunpreparedfortheeconomicconsequencesofwidespreadillnessesthatcouldonlybecontained,atleastinitially,byshuttingdownamajorshareofeconomicactivity.Theconsequencesfortrade,outputandgovernmentfinanceshaveunderlinedthevulnerabilitytodisruptionsoftoday’stechnologicallyadvanced,integratedglobaleconomy.Importantly,theCOVID-19pandemic

2

canbeseenasoneinasequenceoflarge-scaleshocks,bothglobal(suchasthe2008globalfinancialcrisis)andmorelocalized.Asseenin

Box1,

thestudycountriesareexposedtoarangeofnaturaldisasters,whichitisanticipatedwillbecomemorefrequentandseverewithclimatechange.Itreinforcesthepressingneedtoprepareforfuturecrisesaffectinglargesegmentsofnationalpopulations,alongsidemorelocalizedshocks.ThispressingneedisvividlyillustratedbythefactthatevenaseconomiesandhouseholdsrecoverfromtheCOVID-19pandemic,theglobaleconomyisalreadyfacingthefall-outfromRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.ThisconflictisnotonlyaffectingUkraine;itisbeingfeltregionallyandgloballybecauseofdisruptiontosupplychains,anditsinflationaryeffectonfoodandenergyprices,aswellasthemajorrefugeecrisisoverwhelmingneighboringcountries.

Box1:DisasterRiskProfilesofthestudycountries

CountriesinEasternEuropeandtheSouthCaucasusregularlyfacetheimpactofavarietyofnaturaldisasters.Between1990and2022,Thecountriesexperienceddiversenaturaldisastersthataffectedmorethan9.7millionpeople,causingeconomicdamagesinexcessofUS$7.7billion.

Table1

showssomeofthemostnotablenaturaldisastersinthecountries,andtheirdamages:

Table1:Selectnotablenaturaldisastersinthestudycountries

Date

Typeofdisaster

Numberofdeaths

Affected

population

Economic

Loss

($million)

26July2008

Ivano-Frankivskregionflood,

Ukraine

38

224,725

1258

January2006

ExtremeWinter,Ukraine

801

50,000

16April2003

Ismayilli–Gobustanregionflood,Azerbaijan

31,500

55

25April2002

Magnitude4.8Tbilisiearthquake,

Georgia

6

19,156

350

June2000

Caucasussub-regiondrought

993,000

400

24August

1994

Northregionflood,Moldova

47

25,000

548

29April1991

Magnitude7.0Racha-Imeretiearthquake,Georgia

100

100,000

10

10March1989

12December1988

Adzhariaregionlandslide,

Georgia

Magnitude6.9Spitak

earthquake,Armenia

98

25,000

2,500

1,642,000

423

14,200

14February1987

Tbilisiregionflood,Georgia

110

36,000

546

18July1977

Magnitude4.2Noyemberyancityearthquake,Armenia

15,000

33

3

InArmenia,AzerbaijanandGeorgia,floodstendtobethemostcommonnaturaldisasters,whileearthquakeshavehistoricallybeenthemostserious.Since1990,29floods,mostoftheminGeorgia,haveaffectedmorethan20millionindividuals.Earthquakes,however,havebeenthecostliestformofnaturaldisasters,causingdamagesinexcessof$600millionsince1990.In1988,theArmenianearthquakealonecostthelivesof25,000Armenians.WhileUkraineandMoldovaarelessaffectedbyearthquakes,theyareequallyvulnerabletofloods.

Climatechangeisexpectedtoleadtomoresevere,intenseandfrequentweather-relateddisasters,withimportantimplicationsforthecountries.Azerbaijanisaflood-pronearea.InGeorgia,thelargestnaturaldisasteroccurredin2015,whenheavyrainstriggeredlandslides.InUkraine,droughtsnowoccur,onaverage,onceeverythreeyears.Morethan$2.6billionintotaldamageshasbeencausedbyfloodsinUkraineandMoldovaandalmost2.5millionpeoplehavebeenaffected.Duringthesummermonths,Ukrainewasrecentlyimpactedbylargewildfires,whileMoldovahashistoricallystruggledwithdroughts,suchasin2000,2007and2012.Inthewintermonths,extremetemperaturesregularlyleadtodeaths.Since2000,morethan1,100peoplelosttheirlivestoextremecold.

Source:Guha-Sapiretal.2022;WorldBank2009;USAID2016.

Thegrowingfrequencyandseverityofshockshighlightstheimportanceofstrengtheningtheresilienceofsocialprotectionsystems.Agrowingbodyofevidenceshowsthatthepooraremostaffectedbydisasters,aslong-lastingimpactsunderminegainsinhumancapitalandpovertyreduction(Hallegatteetal.2017).InEuropeandCentralAsia(ECA)forinstance,includingthestudycountries,emergingevidencesuggeststhatsocio-economicstatuscandeterminehowhouseholdscopewithandrecoverfromshocks,revealinganeedforinnovativepolicyresponses,suchasscalableoradaptivesocialprotection(WorldBank2021b).Simulationsofthedistributionalimpactsofnaturaldisastersshowthedetrimentalimpactonhouseholdswithlowerconsumptionlevels.Aroundtheworld,countriesareincreasinglyturningtotheirsocialprotectionsystemstoprotectpoorhouseholdsandthosevulnerabletofallingintopovertyfromthenegativeeffectsoflarge-scaleshocks(See,forexample,Bowenetal.(2020)).Socialprotectionhasproventobeaneffectivemeansofprovidingdirectsupporttopoorandvulnerablehouseholdstohelpensuretheirbasicconsumptionandpromotetheirhumancapital(WorldBank2018;BastagliandLowe2021;Gentilini,Almenfi,andDale2022).Increasingly,theseprogramsarebeingusedtoprotectpoorandvulnerablehouseholdsfromsuddenlossesofincomeandtherisingcostsofessentialgoodsandservicesintheaftermathofcrises,therebyhelpingthemtowithstand,manageandrecoverfromshocks(Bowenetal.2020).Inmanycountries–particularlyin

4

AfricaandincreasinglyinSouthAsiaandLatinAmerica–socialprotectionprogramsarebecomingapillaroftheresponsetodisastersandclimatechange(WorldBank2020e,2022h).

TheresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicrevealedshortcomingsintheabilityofsocialprotectionsystemsinthestudycountriestorespondflexiblytoshocks.Thecountriesdidmakesubstantialeffortstoaddressthemostseriousconsequencesofthepandemic,pragmaticallyharnessingexistingprogramstoreachvulnerablegroups,whilealsointroducinginnovationstofillgapsintheexistingsocialprotectionsystem.However,rigiditiesinadministrativesystems,complexeligibilitycriteria,aswellasweaknessesininformationsystems,limitedgovernments’abilitytoquicklyidentifyandreachthosehouseholdsthatweremostvulnerabletotheimpactofthepandemicwithadequatesupport.

1

Thesechallengesstrengthenthecaseforinvestmentincrisispreparedness–mostimmediatelybyimprovingthefunctioningofsocialprotectionsystemsandsettingoutthedesignfeatures,deliverysystems,informationsourcesandinstitutionalarrangementstosupportaresponsetofuturecovariateshocks,betheseclimate-relatedevents,earthquakesorpandemics.

Theexperienceofthestudycountriesduringthepandemicprovidesvaluablelessonsforpreparingforfutureshocksandbuildingtheresilienceofthesocialprotectionsystem.Allthecountriesinitiatedemergencyprogramstoreachthosewholostincomesduringthepandemicandmanydirectedresourcestogroupswhowereparticularlyaffectedorvulnerable,suchasolderpeopleandchildren.Theseresponsesinvolved–dependingonthecountry–increasingthevalueofsocialassistancebenefits;easingeligibilityrequirementstoenterorremaininsocialassistance;extendingassistancetonewcategoriesofbeneficiaries;channelingpublicfundstotheunemployed;subsidizingwagestoretainjobs;andincreasingbenefitsundersocialinsuranceprograms,specificallypensions.Despitethemagnitudeoftheresponse,inallcountriesgroupswereleftuncovered,withtheassistancefundedthroughemergencysocialprotectionprogramsoftenbeingtoolittleandarrivinglate.Reflectingonwhichpopulationswerereached,themodificationstoprogramdesignandtheeffectivenessofthedeliverysystemofferimportantinsightsascountriesprepareforthenextcrisis.

Settingthestage:boostingresiliencethroughshock-responsivesocial

protection

Socialprotectionsystemsaredesignedtodirectlyreducepoverty,whileprovidinginsuranceagainstrisksandpromotingopportunitiesthroughoutthelifecycle.Bydesign,socialprotectionsystemshelpindividualsandsocietiesmanagerisksandvolatility,protectagainstpovertyanddestitution,andfacilitateaccesstoeconomicopportunities.Arangeof

1Itislikelythatavailablebudgetaryresourcesalsolimitedthescaleoftheresponse.However,thisisbeyondthescopeofthispaper.

5

instrumentsacrosssocialassistance,socialinsurance,socialcareservicesandlaborprogramsachievetheseobjectives,withsomeinstrumentscontributingtomorethanonegoal(see

Box

2

)(WorldBank2022c;Gentilinietal.2012).Rootedinarobustandgrowingevidencebaseontheeffectivenessofsocialprotectionprogramsforindividuals,communitiesandsocieties(Bastaglietal.2016;WorldBank2018;Moffitt2014),countriesacrosstheglobehaveestablishedandareexpandingthecoverageofsocialprotectionprograms,includinginthestudycountries(WorldBank2022e,2022f,2022g).

Box2:Socialprotectionsystems

Socialprotectionsystemsrestonfourmainpillars:socialassistance,socialcareservices,socialinsurance,andemployment/labormarketprograms,whichhelpfamiliesandindividualsbuildresilienceagainsteventsandshocksacrossthelifecycleandbuildhumancapital.

2

Socialassistanceisintendedtoprotectpeoplefromfallingintopovertyandprovidesupportatcertainpointsinthelifecycleorinresponsetoparticularvulnerabilities.Itencompassesnon-contributory(government-funded)programs,includingnon-contributorypensions(oftencalledsocialpensions),andfamilyandchildcashbenefits.Socialcareservicessupportindividualsandtheirfamiliestoimprovetheirlivingconditionsthroughoutthelifecycle.Socialinsuranceisintendedtosmoothincomeacrossthelifecycleandprotectpeoplefromshocks;ittypicallycomprisesbenefitsbasedonthelengthandlevelofindividualcontributions(old-age,disabilityandsurvivors’pensions).Finally,employmentandlabormarketprogramsareintendedtoimprovethefunctioningofthelabormarket(throughemploymentservices),enhancelaborsupply(throughtraining)andincreasedemandforlabor(throughsubsidiesorpublicworks);theprogramsalsoseektosmoothincomeduringunemployment(throughunemploymentinsurance)orprotectemploymentinthecontextofchildbirth(throughparentalbenefits).

TheCOVID-19pandemicthrewintostarkreliefhowrigiditieswithinsocialprotectionsystemscanunderminetheseobjectives–leavingmanypoorandvulnerablehouseholdsexposedtoshocks.Globally,despitedecadesofprogress,socialassistanceprogramsoftenreachonlyafractionofthepeopleinthepoorestquintile,thoughcoverageratestendtobehigherinhigher-incomecountries(WorldBank2022b).Thislimitedcoverageamongthepoorestleavesthemvulnerabletocovariateshocks,particularlywhenaccesstosavingsandinsuranceislow.Evenascoverageincreases,designfeaturescancementtheboundariesoftheseprograms.Thesedesignchoicesmaybedrivenbylimitedbudgetaryallocations,whichpreventprogramsfromexpandingcoveragetoincludeadditionalbeneficiariesorweaknessesinfront-lineimplementationarrangements.

3

Theserigiditiesalsoreflectlimitedinformation

2Healthinsuranceisnotconsideredhere,althoughitformspartofsocialinsurancemechanisms.

3Foradiscussofsuchrigiditieswithrespecttotargeting,see:(WorldBank2022a)

6

aboutwhichhouseholdsrequiresupportwhenashockoccurs,whichcanhappenwhenearlywarningsystemsareincompleteorunderutilized,andnotintegratedwithorlinkedtosocialassistancedatabases(WorldBank2022a,2022c).Together,thesefactorspreventprogramsfromreachinghouseholdsinneedofsupportbefore,duringorafterashock.Theseweaknessesincoverage,designanddeliveryincreasinglyappeartoholdtrueforothertypesofsocialprotectionprograms,suchasunemploymentinsuranceoractivelabormarketprograms.Acrossprograms,lowcoverage,rigiddeliverysystemsandlimitedinformationleadtoa“missedmiddle”.Thismissedmiddlearethoseindividualsinacountrywhotendtobeworkerswithoutstandardemploymentcontracts,suchasnon-formalworkersandincreasinglygigeconomyworkers,whoareslightlybetteroffthanthepooresthouseholdsbutareneithercoveredbysocialassistancetargetingthepoornorbysocialinsuranceschemesthatarebasedontheexistenceofformalizedemployer-employeerelationshipsandrequireregularmonthlycontributions.Inthecaseofemployment-orhealth-relatedshocks,thismissedmiddleisoftennotprotectedbyestablishedsocialprotectioninstruments(Guven,Jain,andJoubert2021).

Inresponse,thereisagrowingfocusonboostingresiliencebystrengtheningtheabilityofsocialprotectionsystemstorespondtocovariateshocks.Thisapproach,calledadaptivesocialprotection(ASP)isanagendawithinthebroaderfieldofsocialprotectionthatfocusesonpreparingsocialprotectionprogramsandsystemstobetterrespondtocovariateshocks,withtheaimofbuildingtheresilienceof