债务的世界：日益加重的全球繁荣负担（英）-联合国

Agrowingburdentoglobalprosperity

UNGLOBALCRISISRESPONSEGROUP

ofdebt

Aworld

July2023

CONTENTS

Introduction

1

2

3

4

5

Globalpublicdebtatunprecedentedlevels

Inequalitiesintheinternationalfinancialarchitectu

re

Facingimpossiblechoices:servicingdebtorservingtheirpeople

Peoplepaytheprice

Aroadmaptofinancesustainabledevelopment

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Introduction

Publicdebtcanbevitalfordevelopment.Governmentsuseittofinancetheirexpenditures,toprotectandinvestintheirpeople,andtopavetheirwaytoabetterfuture.

However,itcanalsobeaheavyburden,whenpublicdebtgrowstoomuchortoofast.Thisiswhatishappeningtodayacrossthedevelopingworld.Publicdebthasreachedcolossallevels,largelyduetotwofactors.

Financingneedssoaredwithcountries’effortstofendofftheimpactofcascadingcrisesondevelopment.TheseincludetheCOVID-19pandemic,thecost-of-livingcrisis,andclimatechange.

Aninequalinternationalfinancialarchitecturemakesdevelopingcountries’accesstofinancinginadequateandexpensive.

Theweightofdebtdragsdowndevelopment.Debthasbeentranslatingintoasubstantialburdenfordevelopingcountriesduetolimitedaccesstofinancing,risingborrowingcosts,currencydevaluationsandsluggishgrowth.Thesefactorscompromisetheirabilitytoreacttoemergencies,tackleclimatechangeandinvestintheirpeopleandtheirfuture.

Countriesarefacingtheimpossiblechoiceofservicingtheirdebtorservingtheirpeople.Today,3.3billionpeopleliveincountriesthatspendmoreoninterestpaymentsthanoneducationorhealth.Aworldofdebtdisruptsprosperityforpeopleandtheplanet.

Thismustchange.

TheUnitedNationshasaroadmapofmultilateralactionstoaddresstheglobaldebtburden

andachieve

sustainabledevelopment

.Theroadmapislaidoutin

OurCommonAgendaPolicy

BriefonReformstotheInternationalFinancialArchitectur

eandthe

SDGStimulus

,which

focusesonthreeareasofaction:

i)tacklingthehighcostofdebtandrisingrisksofdebtdistress,

ii)massivelyscalingupaffordablelong-termfinancingfordevelopment,and

iii)expandingcontingencyfinancingtocountriesinneed.

Theimplementationoftheseactionsiscrucialtounleashtheresourcesneededtobuildamoreprosperous,inclusive,andsustainableworld.

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1

Globalpublicdebtatunprecedentedlevels

Publicdebtaroundtheworldhasbeenontheriseoverthelastdecades.Cascadingcrisesinrecentyearstriggeredasharpaccelerationofthistrend.Asaresult,globalpublicdebthasincreasedmorethanfivefoldsincetheyear2000,clearlyoutpacingglobalGDP,whichtripledoverthesametime.

In2022,globalpublicdebt–comprisinggeneralgovernmentdomesticandexternaldebt–reachedarecordUSD92trillion.Developingcountriesowealmost30%ofthetotal,ofwhichroughly70%isattributabletoChina,IndiaandBrazil.1

Figure1:Publicdebthasincreasedmorethanfivefoldsince2000

Globalpublicdebt(USDtrillion)

92

USDtrillion

Globalincreasesince2000

publicdebt5-foldGDP3-fold

17

USDtrillion

2002

2012

2022

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).Note:FiguresrepresentnominalvaluesincurrentUSD.Publicdebtreferstogeneralgovernmentdomesticandexternaldebtthroughoutthedocument.Generalgovernmentconsistsofcentral,stateandlocalgovernmentsandthesocialsecurityfundscontrolledbytheseunits.

1ThisdocumentfollowsthedevelopingcountriesclassificationoftheUnitedNationsM49system,subjecttodataavailability.

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Figure2:Almost30%ofglobalpublicdebtisowedbydevelopingcountries

Publicdebtbycountryin2022(USDbillion)

DevelopedcountriesDevelopingcountries

UnitedStatesofAmerica

30985

Japan

11061

China

France

3092

Australia

947

Italy

Germany

India

2815

UnitedKingdom

3152

Brazil

1653

Mexico

792

Spain

1568

13955

2911

2711

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).

However,publicdebthasincreasedfasterindevelopingcountriescomparedtodevelopedcountriesoverthelastdecade.Theriseofdebtinthedevelopingworldhasmainlybeenduetogrowingdevelopmentfinancingneeds–exacerbatedbytheCOVID-19pandemic,thecost-of-livingcrisis,andclimatechange–andbylimitedalternativesourcesoffinancing.

Consequently,thenumberofcountriesfacinghighlevelsofdebthasincreasedsharplyfromonly22countriesin2011to59countriesin2022.2

2ArepresentativethresholdofapublicdebttoGDPratioof60%isusedtoindicatehighdebtlevels.Thisbenchmarkis

usedbythe

IMF

asoneofitsindicatorstoassessdebtburdensinemergingmarkets.However,theactualburdenposedbydebtdiffersacrosscountriesduetofactorssuchastheirlevelofdevelopment,growthandrevenuepotential,aswellasinstitutionalconsiderations.

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Figure3:Publicdebtisgrowingfasterinthedevelopingworld

Index:outstandingpublicdebtin2010=100

350

300

250

200

150

100

Developingcountries

Developingcountries

excl.China

Developedcountries

2010201220142016201820202022

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).

Figure4:Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithpublicdebtexceeding60%ofGDP

Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithpublicdebtexceeding60%ofGDP

Commoditysupercycle

u

anddebtreliefnderHIPC-MDR

Firstyearofthe

ICOVID-19pandemic

20002005201020152020

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).

Note:HighlyIndebtedPoorCountries–MultilateralDebtReliefInitiatives(HIPC-MDRI).

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

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2

Inequalitiesintheinternationalfinancialarchitecture

Developingcountriesaredealingwithaninternationalfinancialarchitecturethatexacerbatesthenegativeimpactofcascadingcrisesonsustainabledevelopment.Theburdenofdebtondevelopmentisintensifiedbyasystemthatconstrainsdevelopingcountriesaccesstodevelopmentfinanceandpushesthemtoborrowfrommoreexpensivesources,increasingtheirvulnerabilitiesandmakingitevenhardertoresolvedebtcrises.

Borrowingfromforeigncreditorsincreasesexposuretoexternalshocks

Developingcountries’totalpublicdebtincreasedfrom35%ofGDPin2010to60%in2021.Similarly,externalpublicdebt,thepartofagovernment’sdebtowedtoforeigncreditors,increasedfrom19%ofGDPto29%ofGDPin2021.

Comparingdebtlevelstodevelopingcountries’abilitytogenerateforeignexchangethroughexportsshowsthattheirabilitytogeneratesufficientrevenuetoservicetheirexternaldebtobligationshasalsobeendeteriorating.Theshareofexternalpublicdebttoexportsincreasedfrom71%in2010to112%in2021.Duringthesameperiod,externalpublicdebtserviceasashareofexportsincreasedfrom3.9%to7.4%.3

Developingcountriesfaceadditionalmajorchallengesduetohighlevelsofexternalpublicdebt,whichmakethemmorevulnerabletoexternalshocks.Whenglobalfinancialconditionschangeorinternationalinvestorsbecomemorerisk-averse,borrowingcostscanshootupsuddenly.Similarly,whenacountry’scurrencydevalues,debtpaymentsinforeigncurrencycanskyrocket,leavinglessmoneyfordevelopmentspending.

3Forcomparison,the1953LondonAgreementonGermany’swardebtlimitedtheamountofexportrevenuesthatcouldbespentonexternaldebtservicing(publicandprivate)to5%toavoidunderminingtherecovery.

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112%

60%

29%

Figure5:Developingcountries’increasingexternalpublicdebt

Medianvaluesfordevelopingcountries

140

120

100

80

71%

60

40

35%

20

19%

7.4%

3.9%

0

201020122014201620182020

Externalpublicdebt

asshareofexports

Totalpublicdebt

asshareofGDP

Externalpublicdebt

asshareofGDP

Externalpublicdebtserviceasshareofexports

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculations,basedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2022.

Notes:TotalpublicdebtreferstoGeneralGovernmentdebt.ExternalpublicdebtreferstoExternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.

Relyingonprivatecreditorsmakescreditexpensiveanddebtrestructuringcomplex

Privatecreditors,suchasbondholders,banks,andotherlenders,offerfinancingoncommercialterms.Inthepasttenyears,theportionofexternalpublicdebtowedtoprivatecreditorshasrisenacrossallregions,accountingfor62%ofdevelopingcountries’totalexternalpublicdebtin2021.

Theincreasingshareofpublicdebtowedtoprivatecreditorspresentstwochallenges.First,borrowingfromprivatesourcesismoreexpensivethanconcessionalfinancingfrommultilateralandbilateralsources.Second,thegrowingcomplexityofthecreditorbasemakesitmoredifficulttosuccessfullycompleteadebtrestructuringwhenneeded.Delaysanduncertaintiesincreasethecostsofresolvingdebtcrises.

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LatinAmericaand

32%

23%

33%

44%

30%

37%

30%

14%

22%

62%

47%

24%

26%

4%

7%

74%

22%

67%

7.7

Asia

Africa

USA

theCaribbean

andOceania

Figure6:Developingcountriesrelymoreonprivatecreditorsnow,makingcreditmoreexpensiveanddebtrestructuringmorecomplex

Debtbytypeofcreditorasshareofexternalpublicdebt

PrivatecreditorsBilateralcreditorsMultilateralcreditors

DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES

AFRICA

ASIA

ANDOCEANIA

LATINAMERICA

ANDTHECARIBBEAN

22%

31%

15%

30%

63%

39%

20102021201020212010202120102021

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculations,basedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2022.

Note:ExternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.

Developingcountriespaymuchmorefortheirdebtthandevelopedones

Whendevelopingcountriesborrowmoney,theyhavetopaymuchhigherinterestratescomparedtodevelopedcountries,evenwithoutconsideringthecostsofexchangeratefluctuations.CountriesinAfricaborrowonaverageatratesthatarefourtimeshigherthanthoseoftheUnitedStatesandeveneighttimeshigherthanthoseofGermany.Highborrowingcostsmakeitdifficultfordevelopingcountriestofundimportantinvestments,whichinturnfurtherunderminesdebtsustainabilityandprogresstowardssustainabledevelopment.

Figure7:Developingcountriespaymuchmorefortheirborrowing

Bondyields(2022-2023)

11.6

6.5

3.1

1.5

Germany

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).Note:IllustrativecomparisonoftheaverageJPMEMBIGlobalDiversifiedUSDbondyieldsperregionwiththe10-yearbondyieldsofGermany,andtheUnitedStatesfromJanuary2022toMay2023.

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4

4.2%

1.5%

3

Facingimpossiblechoices:

servicingdebtorservingtheirpeople

Developingcountries’debttrendshavecausedarapidincreaseintotalpublicinterestpaymentsrelativetothesizeoftheireconomiesandgovernmentrevenues.4Currently,halfofdevelopingcountriesdevotemorethan1.5%ofitsGDPand6.9%ofitsgovernmentrevenuesforinterestpayments,asharpincreaseoverthelastdecade.

Theriseofinterestpaymentsisawidespreadproblem.Thenumberofcountrieswhereinterestspendingrepresents10%ormoreofpublicrevenuesincreasedfrom29in2010to55in2020.

Figure8:Developingcountriesusemoreresourcestopayinterestontheirpublicdebt

NetinterestpaymentsofdevelopingcountriesasashareofGDPandgovernmentrevenues

76.9%

6

Relativeto

5revenues

3

2

0.9%

1

Relativeto

0GDP

2010201220142016201820202022

Sources:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculations,onIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).

Note:Mediansharesacrossdevelopingcountries.

4Unlessnoted,interestpaymentsinthissectionrefertonetinterestpaymentsofthegeneralgovernment.Thisisthetotalamountofdomesticandexternalinterestexpensesincurredfromborrowing,minusanyinterestincomereceived.

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54.7%

41.1%

40.8%

Figure9:Arisingnumberofcountriesusemorepublicrevenuesforinterestpayments

Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithnetinterestpaymentsexceeding10%ofrevenues

54

44

29

2010201220142016201820202022

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023).Note:Netinterestpaymentsofthegeneralgovernmentrefertothetotalamountofdomesticandexternalinterestexpensesincurredfromloansandotherformsofborrowing,minusanyinterestincomereceived.

Interestpaymentsaregrowingfasterthandevelopmentspending

Interestpaymentsindevelopingcountrieshavegrownfasterthanpublicspendingonhealth,educationandinvestmentoverthelastdecade.Therapidincreaseofinterestpaymentsissqueezingoutspendinginthesekeyareas.

Figure10:Interestpaymentsaregrowingfasterthanotherpublicexpenditures

Nominal(%)changeofpublicexpenditurecategoriesindevelopingcountriesbetween2010-2012and2019-2021

60.4%

%

EducationInvestmentHealthInterest

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023),IMFInvestmentandcapitalstockdatabaseandWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase.

Note:Aggregateexpendituresfordevelopingcountries.

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Investment

Interest

4

Peoplepaytheprice

Someregionsspendmoreonservicingdebtthanservingtheirpeople

InAfrica,theamountspentoninterestpaymentsishigherthanspendingoneithereducationorhealth.DevelopingcountriesinAsiaandOceania(excludingChina)areallocatingmorefundstointerestpaymentsthantohealth.Similarly,inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,developingcountriesaredevotingmoremoneytointerestpaymentsratherthantoinvestment.Acrosstheworld,risingdebtburdensarekeepingcountriesfrominvestinginsustainabledevelopment.

Figure11:Someregionsspendmoreonservicingdebtthanservingtheirpeople

Publicexpenditureonnetinterest,education,healthandinvestmentasashareofGDP(%)(2019-2021)

Education

Health

10

8

6

4

2

0

AfricaAsiaandOceaniaAsiaandOceaniaLatinAmerica

(exc.China)andtheCaribbean

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023),IMFInvestmentandcapitalstockdatabaseandWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase.

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2010-2012

2019-2021

45

Anincreasingnumberofcountriesfindthemselvestrappedinasituationwhereboththeirde-velopmentandtheirabilitytomanagedebtiscompromised.Currentlyatleast19developingcountriesarespendingmoreoninterestthanoneducationand45arespendingmoreoninter-estthanonhealth.Intotal,48countriesarehometo3.3billionpeople,whoselivesaredirectlyaffectedbyunderinvestmentineducationorhealthduetolargeinterestpaymentburdens.

Figure12:Interestpaymentsoutweighdevelopmentspendinginmorecountries

Numberofdevelopingcountriesspendingmorepublicresourcesonnetinterestthanoneducation,investmentorhealth

Education

Health

Investment

9

13

19

21

36

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023),IMFInvestmentandcapitalstockdatabaseandWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase.

Figure13:3.3billionpeopleliveincountriesthatspendmoreoninterestthanhealthoreducation

Populationofdevelopingcountriesspendingmoreoninterestthanhealthoreducation

1.9

BILLION

3.3

BILLION

Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroupcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2023),IMFInvestmentandcapitalstockdatabaseandWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase.Latestfiguresavailable.

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1

2

UnitedNations

Secretary-General’s

SDGStimulus

toDeliver

Agenda2030

FEBRUARY2023

5

Aroadmaptofinancesustainabledevelopment

Toaddresstheglobaldebtchallengesandachievesustainabledevelopment,theUnitedNationsinthe

SDGStimulu

spackageandtheSummitfortheFuture’s