91宏观经济学及习题第4章课件

EconomicGrowth,Productivity,andLivingStandards1Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsImportantConcepts

Compoundinterest复利Diminishingreturnstocapital资本收益递减Entrepreneur企业家2Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsChapteroutlineThesourcesofeconomicgrowthandrisinglivingstandardsinthemodernworldAnalyzeeachoftherefactorsanddiscussitsimplicationsforgovernmentpoliciestopromotegrowth3Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsIntroduction“Whichwouldyouratherbe?Anordinary,middleclassAmericanlivingtoday,ortherichestpersoninAmericaatthetimeofGeorgeWashington?”4Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards5Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards6Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards7Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards8Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards9Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards10Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsYoucanthinkofenormouschangeinthewayaveragepeopleliveThesechangesaredueinlargeparttoscientificadvances.Newscientificknowledgeleadstowidespreadimprovementsinlivingstandardsonlywhenitiscommerciallyapplied11Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsⅠ.theremarkableriseinlivingstandards:therecordCompoundinterestWhynationsbecomerich:thecrucialroleofaveragelaborproductivity12Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPperPersonInSelected

Countries,1870-2003(in2000U.S.Dollars)Country

Australia 5,512 7,236 9,369 17,670 28,312 1.2 2.1 Canada 2,328 5,509 8,906 19,882 29,201 1.9 2.3 France 2,291 4,484 6,164 18,138 26,176 1.8 2.8 Germany 1,152 2,218 4,785 17,222 25,271 2.3 3.2 Italy 2,852 4,018 5,128 16,912 25,458 1.7 3.1 Japan 931 1,763 2,141 16,329 26,636 2.6 4.9 UnitedKingdom 3,892 5,976 8,709 16,557 26,852 1.5 2.1 UnitedStates 2,887 6,852 12,110 22,835 35,488 1.9 2.0Annual%change1950-2003Annual%change1870-20031870191319501979200313Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPperPersoninFiveIndustrializedCountries,1870-200314Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsObservationThevariety,quality,andquantityofgoodsandservicesincreasedenormouslyduringthe19thand20thcenturies,asreflectedinrealpercapitaGDP.15Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPperPersonInSelected

Countries,1870-2000(in1995U.S.Dollars)Country

Australia 5,626 7,385 9,561 18,033 24,708 1.1 1.9 Canada 2,447 5,791 9,362 20,899 26,604 1.8 2.1 France 2,249 4,401 6,049 17,801 22,447 1.8 2.6 Germany 1,205 2,320 5,005 18,014 23,247 2.3 3.1 Italy 2,248 3,167 4,042 13,331 21,930 1.8 3.4 Japan 963 1,825 2,216 16,899 24,772 2.5 4.8 UnitedKingdom 3,500 5,374 7,832 14,889 21,142 1.4 2.0 UnitedStates 2,843 6,745 11,921 22,480 32,629 1.9 2.0Annual%change1950-2000Annual%change1870-200018701913195019792000Observations1870:AustraliahadthehighestpercapitalrealGDPandJapanthelowest2000realpercapitaGDPinJapanexceededAustraliaNotethedifferenceinthegrowthrateof1.1%forAustraliaand2.5%forJapan16Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPperPersonInSelected

Countries,1870-2003(in2000U.S.Dollars)Country

Australia 5,512 7,236 9,369 17,670 28,312 1.2 2.1 Canada 2,328 5,509 8,906 19,882 29,201 1.9 2.3 France 2,291 4,484 6,164 18,138 26,176 1.8 2.8 Germany 1,152 2,218 4,785 17,222 25,271 2.3 3.2 Italy 2,852 4,018 5,128 16,912 25,458 1.7 3.1 Japan 931 1,763 2,141 16,329 26,636 2.6 4.9 UnitedKingdom 3,892 5,976 8,709 16,557 26,852 1.5 2.1 UnitedStates 2,887 6,852 12,110 22,835 35,488 1.9 2.0Annual%change1950-2003Annual%change1870-200318701913195019792003Observations2000RealPerCapitalGDPinJapanwasgreaterthanAustralia2003Australia’sRealPerCapitaGDPwasgreaterthanJapanSmallchangesingrowthratesmakeabigdifference17Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsCompoundInterestThepaymentofinterestnotonlyontheoriginaldepositbutonallpreviouslyaccumulatedinterestWhy“Small”DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatter18Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsWhy“Small”DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatterCompoundInterestSuppose:In1800$10deposited@4%interestIn2005theaccountisworth$25,507.50$10x(1.04)205=$31,033.7719Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsWhy“Small”DifferencesinGrowthRatesMatterInterestrate(%) Valueof$10after205years2 $579.484 $31,033.776 $1,540,644.29ObservationsAsmallsumcompoundedoverlongperiodscangreatlyincreaseinvalueSmalldifferencesininteresthaveaverylargeimpactonvalue20Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsCompoundInterestEconomicgrowthratesaresimilartocompoundinterestrates.Governmentpoliciesthataffectthelong-termgrowthratebyasmallamountwillhaveamajoreconomicimpact.21Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsWhyNationsBecomeRich:TheCrucialRoleofAverageLaborProductivityQuestionWhatdeterminesanation’seconomicgrowthrate?Somedefinitions:Y=realGDPN=numberofemployedworkersPOP=totalpopulation22Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPPerPerson23Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPPerPersonObservationsRealoutput/persondependson:Howmucheachworkercanproduce.Thepercentofthepopulationthatisworking.24Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsRealGDPperPersonandAverageLaborProductivityintheU.S.,1960-2004RealGDPperpersongrewby166%between1960and200425Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsShareoftheU.S.PopulationEmployed,1960-2004Increasesinbothlaborproductivityandtheworkingpeoplecontributetothisriseinlivingstandard26Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsWhyNationsBecomeRich:TheCrucialRoleofAverageLaborProductivityWhatdeterminesanation’seconomicgrowthrate?Inthelongrun,increasesinoutputperpersonariseprimarilyfromincreasesinaveragelaborproductivity.27Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsⅡ.TheDeterminantsofAverageLaborProductivityA.HumanCapitalThetalents,education,training,andskillsofworkers28Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsExampleLucyandEthelontheassemblylineLucyandEthelwrapandboxchocolatecandies.Lucy(anovice)wraps100candies/hror4,000/weekEthel(receivedon-the-jobtraining)wraps300/hror12,000/weekAveragelaborproductivity/week=16,000/2=8,000/weekor16,000/80hrs=200candies/hrEthel(withtraining)ismoreproductivethanLucy29Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsB.PhysicalCapitalWorkerproductivitydependsnotonlyontheirskills(humancapital)butonthetools(physicalcapital)theyhavetoworkwith.30Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsExampleLucyandEthelgetautomatedCandyCobuysacandy-wrappingmachineoperatedbyoneworkerAnuntrainedworkerusingthemachinecanwrap500candies/hrLucyusesthemachineandEthelwrapsbyhand31Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsExampleLucy’sweeklyoutput(40hrsx500)=20,000candiesEthel’sweeklyoutput(40hrsx300)=12,000candiesTotaloutput=32,000candies/weekoraveragelaborproductivity=16,000candies/weekor 32,000/80hrs.=400candies/hr.Doubletheaverageproductivitywiththemachine32Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsAverageLaborProductivityandCapitalperWorkerin15Countries,199033Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsCapital,Output,andProductivity

intheCandy-WrappingFactory(1)Numberofmachines(capital)

0 16,000 80 200 1 32,000 80 400 2 40,000 80 500 3 40,000 80 500 (2)Totalnumberofcandieswrappedeachweek(output)(3)Totalhoursworkedperweek(4)Candieswrappedperhourworked(productivity)ObservationsForagivennumberofworkers,addingcapitalwillgenerallyincreaseoutputandaveragelaborproductivityThemorecapitalthatisalreadyinplace,thesmallerthebenefitsofaddingextracapital34Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsDiminishingReturnstoCapitalIftheamountoflaborandotherinputsemployedisheldconstant,thenthegreatertheamountofcapitalalreadyinuse,thelessanadditionalunitofcapitaladdstoproduction.35Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsPhysicalCapitalPublicpolicydesignedtostimulategrowthshouldconsiderthat:Increasingtheamountofcapitalavailabletotheworkforcewilltendtoincreaseoutputandaveragelaborproductivity.Thedegreetowhichproductivitycanbeincreasedbyanexpandingstockofcapitalislimited.36Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsC.LandandOtherNaturalResourcesGenerally,anabundanceofnaturalresourcesincreasestheproductivityofworkers.Resourcescanbeobtainedthroughinternationalmarkets.37Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsD.TechnologyNewtechnologiesarethesinglemostimportantsourceofproductivityimprovement.Anewtechnologywillexpandtheproductivityinmanysectorsbystimulatinggreaterspecialization.38Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsE.EntrepreneurshipandManagementEntrepreneursPeoplewhocreateneweconomicenterprises39Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsEntrepreneurshipandManagementFactorsinfluencingentrepreneurshipTaxationRegulationSocialCustoms40Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsEntrepreneurshipandManagementManagement:Influenceproductivitybyimplementingmoreefficientmethodsofproduction.41Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsF.ThePoliticalandLegalEnvironmentEstablish:Well-definedpropertyrightsMaintainpoliticalstabilityPromotefreeandopenexchangeofideas42Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsⅢ.TheCostsof

EconomicGrowthTheopportunitycostofincreasingtheproductionofcapitalgoodsis:Lessconsumergoods.Reducedleisuretime,worker’ssafety,andhealth.ThecostofR&D.Thecostofeducation(humancapital).43Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsWhatDoYouThink?Dothebenefitsofeconomicgrowthexceedthecosts?44Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsⅣ.PromotingEconomicGrowthPoliciestoincreasehumancapitalPoliciesthatpromotesavingandinvestmentPoliciesthatsupportresearchanddevelopmentThelegalandpoliticalframework45Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsWhydoalmostallcountriesprovidefreepubliceducation?46Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsPoliciesthatpromotesavingandinvestmentTaxcodeprovisionsPublicinvestmentandcreationofinfrastructure47Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandards48Chapter7:EconomicGrowht,Productivity,andLivingStandardsPoliciesthatsuppo