印度石化工业简介

2Review&OutlookofIndianEconomySnapshotofIndianEconomy34GDPrecordedslowestgrowthinlast6years~5%(E)-2012-13Unit:%2007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-2013Y-O-YGrowthRates

2R1RAEAgriculture&AlliedActivities5.80.10.87.93.61.8Mining&Quarrying3.72.15.94.9-0.60.4Manufacturing10.34.311.39.72.71.9Electricity,gas&watersupply8.34.66.25.26.54.9Construction10.85.36.710.25.65.9Trade,Hotels,Transport&Communication10.97.510.412.37.05.2Finance,Insurance,RealEstate&BusinessServices12.012.09.710.111.78.6Community,Social&PersonalServices6.912.511.74.36.06.8GDPatfactorCost(%)9.36.78.69.36.25.0IIP38.134.336.536.835.0naInflationCPI15.52.55.38.22.90.7ForeignExchangeReserves(US$)6.29.112.410.48.410.0ExchangeRate~Rs/US$309.7252.0279.1304.8294.4295.5Note:QEreferstotheQuickEstimates,AEreferstotheAdvanceEstimatesSource:EconomicSurvey2012-13IndianEconomy:2012-13GrowthinGDPatFactorCostat2004-5prices(%)5Moderationingrowthduetoweaknessinindustry(mining&quarrying,manufacturing,electricity,gas&watersupply&constructionsectors)6Unit:US$billion2007-082008-092009-102010-11PR2011-12P2011-12(H1-A-S)PR2012-13(H1-A-S)PExports166.2189.0182.4256.2309.8158.2146.6Imports257.6308.5300.6383.5499.5247.7237.2TradeBalance-91.5-119.5-118.2-127.3-189.8-89.5-90.7NetInvisibles75.791.680.079.3111.653.151.7CurrentAccountBalance-15.7-27.9-38.2-48.1-78.2-36.4-39.0ForeignInvestment43.38.350.442.139.217.118.6O/WFDI(net)15.922.418.011.822.115.712.8Portfolio(net)27.4-14.032.430.317.21.35.8CapitalAccountBalance106.67.451.663.767.843.540.0OverallBalance92.2-20.113.413.1-12.8-5.8.36Source:EconomicSurvey2012-13BalanceofPaymentSummaryIndia'scurrentaccountdeficitplumbedasgoldandoilimportssoared7India:TrendsinIndustrialOutputImprovementinManufacturing&ConsumerGoodsGrowthRate8Indiaexpectedgrowthratein2013-14~6-7%India’sGDPgrowthprojection:2013-14Agencies2013-14EconomicSurvey2012-136.1%-6.7%IMF-WEO-Jan20135.9%WorldBank6.0%UnitedNations6.1%Moody's–Mar20136.2%CRISIL–Jan20136.7%CreditSuisse–Feb20136.7%Indianagriculturehasperformedremarkablywellintermsofoutputgrowth,despiteweatherandpriceshocksinthepastfewyears.Theproductionofkeycapitalgoodssuchasmachineryandequipment,electricalmachinery,andtransportsegmentscontractedowingtodecelerationininvestment,declineinnewprojects,andimportcompetition.Highinterestratesandslowergrowthinhouseholdorretailcreditresultedinslowergrowthinconsumerdurables.Servicesectorhasclearlyoutgrownboththeindustryandagriculturesectors.Indianowhasavibrantandtransparentfinancialmarketintermsofmarketefficiency,transparency,andpricediscoveryprocess.Expenditureonsocialservicesbythegovernmenthasincreasedinrecentyearsreflectingthehigherprioritygiventothissector.Multilateraleffortsonsustainabledevelopmentandclimatechangehaveledtoseveralpositiveoutcomes.9ReviewoftheEconomy10Review&OutlookofPetrochemicalIndustry11Capacityadditionof440KtbyMRPLin2013Capacityforpolymersgrewat5%in2012MMT12DemandforPE&PPisexpectedtoregisterastronggrowthof12%&15%respectivelyin2013Polymerdemandgrewat10.4%in2012MMT13PVCImportdependencyexpectedtobearound45%in2013&2014,nocapacityadditionTrendinPolymersnettrade(mmt)NetexportablesurplusincaseofPP14….andisexpectedtotouch42mmtby2014Aggregatepetrochemicalsdemandcombiningallthekeysector(KT)Petrochemicaldemandwasat34.5mmtin201215….andisexpectedtogrowat8%-13%in2013&2014SegmentProductsActualProjectedGrowthoverpreviousyear2011201220132014201220132014PolymersLDPE+EVA,LLDPE,HDPE,PP,PVC,PS8113895999131103710%11%11%OlefinsEthylene,Propylene,Butadiene,Styrene,EDC&VCM807086339362108107.0%8.5%15%FibreIntermediatesACN,Caprolactum,PTA&MEG59576360669971386.8%5.3%6.6%SyntheticFibresPSF,ASF,PPSF,PFY,PPFY,VSF,VFY&NFY33883473366339652.5%5.5%8.2%Para-XylenePX2424230524103478-4.9%4.5%44%SurfactantsLAB,EO6666977317644.7%4.9%4.5%ElastomersSBR,PBR,NBR&EPDM40645548151312%5.7%6.7%CarbonBlack&CBFS