现代大学英语（第三版）精读3 课件 B3U7、B3U8

ContentsUnit7Watchthevideoclip

andanswerthefollowingquestionsMorequestionsaboutthetextLead-inWhatisGlobalization?

Watchthevideoclip

andanswerthefollowingquestions:1.Whatisthebackgroundtoglobalization?2.

Accordingtothespeaker,whatisavailableformorepeoplebecauseofglobalization?3.Whatisafurtherdisadvantageofglobalizationmentionedinthisvideo?Lead-in1.Whatisthebackgroundtoglobalization?

Advancesintechnologysuchasmobilephones,aeroplanes,telephonesandtheInternethavemadethegrowthoftransportandcommunicationnetworkspossible.Amongstotherthings,thismeansthatpeopleandcountriescanexchangeinformationandgoodsmorequickly,andinalesscomplicatedway.Thisprocessiscalled“Globalization”.2.

Accordingtothespeaker,whatisavailableformorepeoplebecauseofglobalization?

Moreaffordableproductsareavailableformorepeople.However,notonlydoesanexchangeofproductsandeconomicgoodstakeplace,butalsoofservices,knowledge,culturalgoodsandevenlanguages.Lead-in3.Whatisafurtherdisadvantageofglobalizationmentionedinthisvideo?

Afurtherdisadvantageofglobalizationisecologicalproblemssuchasclimatechange.Theuseofaeroplanes,shipsandlorriestotransportgoodsoverinternationalbordersisconstantlyontheincrease.Thiscausesmorecarbondioxidetobereleasedintotheatmospherewhich,inturn,isthemaincauseofglobalwarming.Lead-inLead-inMorequestionsaboutthetext:1.Whydidtheauthorwritethisessayattheedgeofthiscentury?Howhad“globalization”cometobeatrendywordbythattime?Whatinhisopinionmadeitpossiblefortheworldeconomytobeinterdependent?2.Whatistheauthor’soverallpositionontheissueofglobalization?Isheforitoragainstit?Whydoeshesaythatitisa“double-edgedsword”?3.Howcanglobalizationbenefitallnations?Howdoestheauthorprovethis?4.Whohavebeensomeofthemostenthusiasticsupportersofglobalization?HowabouttheUnitedStates?HowabouttheEuropeancountries?5.Wouldyousaythatglobalizationhasbeenmainlythegameoftheeconomicallypowerfulcountries?Whathasbeenthegeneralattitudeofdevelopingcountries?HowaboutChina?Lead-inMorequestionsaboutthetext:6.Whatisthefirstproblemintheauthor’sopinionthatcanneutralizethepotentialbenefitsofglobalizationandmakeithighlyrisky?Whatexampledoestheauthorusetoillustratehispoint?7.Whatistheotherproblemthatmaythreatenthefutureofglobalization,accordingtotheauthor?Whatdoestheauthormeanwhenhearguesthatmanyofpeople’scomplaintsarepolitical,cultural,andsocial?8.Doestheauthorbelievethatsinceglobalizationislargelyspontaneous,itisinevitableorcompletelyirreversible?Whyorwhynot?9.Theauthormaintainsthatglobalizationcanharmnationsunderunfavorableconditions.Whatmighttheunfavorableconditionsbeinyouropinion?10.Hasthehistoryofthepasttwodecadesborneouttheauthor’sviewsinthisessay?Whatistheanswertothedauntingquestiontheauthorraisesaboutglobalizationattheverybeginningoftheessay?Text1.Abouttheauthor2.Background

3.Structure4.GotothetextGlobalization’sDualPower

RobertJ.SamuelsonText1.AbouttheauthorRobertJacobSamuelson(bornDecember23,1945)isaconservativejournalistforTheWashingtonPost,wherehehaswrittenaboutbusinessandeconomicissuessince1977.HewasacolumnistforNewsweekmagazinefrom1984to2011.HebeganhiscareerinjournalismasareporteronthebusinessdeskofTheWashingtonPostin1969andleftthepapertobecomeafreelancerin1973.HisworkhasappearedinTheSundayTimes,TheNewRepublicandtheColumbiaJournalismReview.HejoinedtheNationalJournalin1976,wherehewrotethe“EconomicFocus”column.Hewasacontributingeditortherefrom1981to1984,whenhelefttowriteforNewsweek.Atage75,Samuelsonpostedhislastop-edarticleinTheWashingtonPostonSeptember14,2020.Text2.Background

Globalizationisatrendywordtoday.Moreandmorepeoplenowbelievethattheworldisbecomingincreasinglyintegrated.Indeed,peoplenowthinkthatitisbecomingasmallglobalvillage.Globalization,theysay,isnotjustanirresistibletrend.Itisalreadyafact.Actually,initsbroadestsense,globalizationstartedalongtimeago.OnecouldtraceittotheearlycaravansacrosstheSaharaDesertandalongtheSilkRoad;thetradearoundtheMediterraneanorinthewakeoftheCrusades,oracrosstheAtlanticafterColumbus“discovered”America.TextTheprocessreacheditsfirstpeakaroundtheendofthe19thcentury,andalthoughitwastemporarilysuspendedbywidespreadprotectionism,thetidereturnedinthelatterhalfofthe20thcenturywithmoretranquilinternationalrelationssupportedbytheUnitedNations,theGATT(todaytheWTO),theWorldBankandtheIMF.Thepaceofinternationaleconomicintegrationacceleratedinthe1980sand1990s,especiallyaftertheColdWarended.Manypoliticalbarriersthathamperedinternationaltradewerereducedorremoved,andgreattechnologicaldevelopmentfacilitatedeasytransportationandcommunication.Themostdramaticexampleofthisnewroundofglobalizationisnodoubttheopening-upofChina.ButChinaisnottheonlycountrycaughtupinthisprocess.Todayeventhemostsecludedandisolatedcountriesaretakingtheirfirstcautiousstepsinthisdirection.TextHowever,thisisonlyonesideofthestory.Therealsoexiststheoppositetendency,thetendencyofprotectionism,regionalism,unilateralism,separatism,andanti-globalization.Thereasonforthisissimple.Astheauthorputsit,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword.Itcutsbothways.Ontheonehand,itcanbringnewproductsandservices,newinvestmentandmarkets,newtechnologiesandmanagementskillsandgenerallyhigherlivingstandards.Ontheother,itcanalsobringmoredebt,moreinstability,agreatergapbetweentherichandthepoor,farworseenvironmentaldegradation,andthelossofnationalaandculturalidentity.Inspiteofallthepromisesofawin-winsituation,inthisgame,nationsarenotequallypositioned.Theydonothavealevelplayground.Therefore,thereareboundtobewinnersandlosers.TextPeopleinmanydevelopingcountriesareafraidthattheywouldlosetheirhardwonindependence.TheysuspectthatglobalizationisjustanothernameforAmericanization.Theyfeelthattheyarebeingmarginalizedratherthanintegrated.Nowondertherehasbeenanincreasinglyintensemassprotestagainstglobalizationaroundtheworldinrecentyears.Thisdoesnotmeanthatglobalizationiscompletelywrong.Itsimplymeansthatitismorecomplicatedthanwethought.Itmeansthatmanynewproblemswillhavetobelookedintoandproperlyresolved.Globalizationprobablywilleventuallyprevail.Butitwillhavetobeamoreequitable,morehumane,moreuniversallybeneficialkindofglobalization.Inthisessaywrittenattheedgeofthe21stcentury,theauthordrawsourattentiontothedualcharacterofthistrendandurgespeopletodealwiththenewproblems.TextChina’s15-year-longunremittingeffortstojointheWTOshowthatwehavemadeourchoice.Wehavedecided,afterweighingtheprosandconscarefully,thatwecannotaffordtobeleftoutofthistrend,thetrendthatwedecidedtoembracein1978.Ourachievementssincethattimehaveprovedthewisdomofpursuingthispolicy.However,wemustnotforgettheothersideofthestory.Ourrealchallengesarestillaheadasglobalizationrequiresbigchangesinideas,attitudes,policiesandinstitutionalstructures.Itisforthisreasonthatweoughttoknowaboutglobalizationinallitssubtletyandcomplexity.Weshouldthinkabouthowwestudents,asindividuals,canadjustourselvestothechallengesofamoreopencountryandavailourselvesofthenewopportunities.TextText3.StructurePartI.Theauthor’spositiononglobalization(paras.1–2)Globalizationhasdualpower:itraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnology,andraiseslivingstandards;butitcanalsohurtnationalsovereignty,threatenlocalculture,andcauseeconomicandsocialinstability.PartII.Thedefinitionandpositiveeffectsofglobalization(paras.3–17)1.Theauthordefinesglobalizationasthenewstageofthenever-endingprocessofmarketexpansionasaresultoffavorablepoliticalconditionsandtechnologicaldevelopmentswhenproduction,marketing,andallothereconomicandfinancialactivitiesgoglobal.2.Bothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries,multinationalcompaniesandgovernmentsgainbenefitsfromglobalization.TextPartIII.Theproblemsmakingglobalizationrisky(paras.18–33)1.Oneproblemiseconomicinstability.Globalizationcanmakeeconomicrecessions/crisesglobalandgiveharsherblowstoanation.TheAsianfinancialcrisisintheearly1990scanserveasanexample,inwhichvastflowsofforeigncapitalcausedoverspendingorwasteasaresultof“cronycapitalism,”ineptgovernmentinvestmentpolicies,andexcessoptimism.2.Theotherproblemisthatpeopleoftenfindforeignpolitical,cultural,andsocialinfluencesalienandmenacing.PartIV.Theconclusion(para.34)Theauthorendstheessaybyrepeatinghiswarningthatifwearenotcareful,globalization’spromisemayexceednotitsperil.Oneofthegreatdramasofthenewcenturyistoseehowitturnsout.Globalization’sDualPowerRobertJ.Samuelson1

Attheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.2

Adauntingquestionofthe21stcenturyiswhethernationswillcontrolthisgreatupheavalorwhetheritwillcometocontrolthem.Text3

Insomerespectsglobalizationismerelyatrendywordforanoldprocess.Whatwecallthemarketissimplythejoiningofbuyersandsellers,producersandconsumers,andsaversandinvestors.Economichistoryconsistslargelyofthestoryofthemarket’sexpansion:fromfarmtotown,fromregiontonationandfromnationtonation.Inthe20thcentury,theDepressionandtwoworldwarsretardedthemarket’sgrowth.ButafterWorldWarIIended,itreaccelerated,drivenbypoliticalpressuresandbettertechnology.4

Fromthelate1940sthroughthe1980s,theUnitedStateschampionedtradeliberalizationandeconomicgrowth.Asuccessionofmajortradenegotiationsreducedaveragetariffsinindustrializedcountriestoabout5percentin1990fromabout40percentin1946.Text5

Aftertwoworldwars,Europeanssaweconomicunificationasanantidotetodeadlynationalism.Technologycomplementedpolitics.Ever,beforetheInternet,decliningcostsforcommunicationandtransportation—fromjetplanes,betterunderseatelephonecablesandsatellites—favoredmoreglobalcommerce.Bytheearly1990s,worldexports(afteradjustingforinflation)werenearly10timeshigherthantheyhadbeenfourdecadesearlier.6

Globalizationcontinuesthisprocessbutalsodepartsfromitinatleastonecriticalrespect.Untilrecently,countrieswereviewedasdistincteconomicentities,connectedmainlybytrade.Now,thisisbecominglesstrue.Companiesandfinancialmarketsincreasinglydisregardnationalborderswhenmakingproduction,marketingandinvestmentdecisions.Text7

Asrecentlyas1990,governments—eitherindividuallyorthroughsuchmultilateralinstitutionsastheWorldBank—providedhalftheloansandcreditsto29majordevelopingcountries(includingBrazil,China,India,SouthKoreaandMexico),accordingtotheInstituteofInternationalFinance,abankingindustryresearchgroupinWashington.8

Adecadelater,evenafterAsia’s1997–1998financialcrisis,privatecapitalflowsdwarfedgovernmentalflows.In1999,privateflows(bankloans,bondfinancing,equityinvestmentinlocalstockmarketsanddirectinvestmentbymultinationalcompanies)totaledanestimated$136billiontothese29countries,comparedwithgovernmentcapitalflowof$22billion,accordingtotheinstitute.Text9

Meanwhile,multinationalcompanieshavegoneonaninternationalacquisition

binge.Inthefirsthalfof1999alone,thevalueofnewcross-bordermergersandacquisitionspassed$500billioninbothadvancedanddevelopingcountries.

10

Thetotalroughlymatchedtheamountforall1998($544billion)andwasalmostseventimeslargerthanthe1991level($85billion),accordingtotheWorldInvestmentReportbytheUnitedNations.TherecenttakeoverstrugglebetweenBritishandGermanwirelessgiants—VodafoneAirTouchPLCandMannesmannAG—isexceptionalonlyforitssizeandbitterness.Text11

Behindthemergerboomliesthegrowingcorporateconvictionthatmanymarketshavebecometrulyglobal.Bytryingtomaximizetheirpresenceinasmanynationsaspossible,companiesseektoachieveeconomiesofscale—thatis,tolowercoststhroughhighersalesandproductionvolumes—andtostayabreastoftechnologicalchangesthatcannowoccuralmostanywhere.12

Inaddition,companiesincreasinglyorganizeproductionglobally,dividingproductdesign,componentmanufacturingandfinalassemblyamongmanycountries.Text13

Butitisnotjustmultinationalcompanies,seekingbiggersalesandprofits,thatdriveglobalization.Governmentsdo,too.InEurope,therelentlesspursuitofthe“singlemarket”isoneindicator.ThisreflectsawidespreadrecognitionthatEuropeancompanieswillbehard-pressedtocompeteinglobalmarketsiftheirlocaloperationsarehamstrungbyfragmented

nationalmarkets.14

Amongpoorercountries,thebestsignofsupportistheclamortogetintotheWorldTradeOrganization.Since1995,sevencountries—Bulgaria,Ecuador,Estonia,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,MongoliaandPanama—havejoined.And32areseekingmembership.Thereisabeliefthatglobaltradeandinvestmentcanaideconomicdevelopmentbyprovidingnewproducts,technologiesandmanagementskills.Text15

It’snomyth.Countriessucceedorfailmainlybasedontheirownworkers,investmentandgovernmentpolicies.Butengagingthewiderworldeconomycanhelp.16

ConsiderAsia.Despiteitsfinancialcrisis,rapidtradeexpansionandeconomicgrowthsharplycutthenumberofthedesperatelypoor.From1987to1998,thoseintheregion,includingChina,withincomesof$1orlessadaydroppedto15percentfrom27percentofthepopulation,theWorldBankestimates.17

Meanwhile,LatinAmericaandsub-SaharanAfrica—whoseembraceoftheworldeconomyhasbeenlateorlimited—faredmuchlesswell.InAfrica,forexample,theWorldBankreckonsthat46percentofthepopulationlivedonlessthan$1adayin1998,exactlywhatthepercentagewasin1987.Text18Well,ifglobalizationissogood,whyisitalsosorisky?Theansweristhattwoproblemscouldneutralizeitspotentialbenefits.19

Thefirstiseconomicinstability.Theglobaleconomymaybepronetoharsherboom-bustcyclesthannationaleconomiesindividually.Thetheorythatinternationaltradeandinvestmentraiselivingstandardsworksonlyifinvestmentfundsarewellusedandiftradeflowsdonotbecometoolopsided.20

TheAsianfinancialcrisisraisedquestionsonbothcounts.Intheearly1990s,mostofAsiathrivedbecauseitreceivedvastflowsofforeigncapitalasbankloans,directinvestmentinfactoriesorstock-marketinvestmentinlocalcompanies.Text21

TheensuingspendingboominturnaidedEurope,JapanandtheUnitedStatesbyincreasingimportsfromthem.Thentheboomabruptlyhaltedinmid-1997when,itbecameapparentthatasaresultof“cronycapitalism,”ineptgovernmentinvestmentpoliciesandexcessoptimism,muchoftheinvestmenthadbeenwastedonunneededfactories,officebuildingsandapartments.22

WhatpreventedtheAsiancrisisfrombecomingafull-scaleglobaleconomicdownturnhasbeentheU.S.economy,tosomeextent.Text23

Itsgrowthhelpedtherestoftheworldbypurchasingmoreandmoreoftheirexports.Since1996,theU.S.current-account

deficitinitsbalanceofpayments—thebroadestmeasureofthecountry’sinternationaltrade—hasmorethandoubled,from$129billiontoanestimatedtotalof$330billionin1999.24

Theworldeconomy,asTreasurySecretaryLawrenceSummershasrepeatedlysaid,hasbeenflyingononeengine.Thetroubleis,asMr.Summershasalsowarned,thiscannotgoonforever.25

ThegreatdangeristhatsomecountriesaretoodependentonAmericanprosperityandthataslowdownorrecession—reflectingadeclineinthestockmarket,alossofconsumerconfidenceorhigherinterestrates—mightsnowballintoaninternationalslump.Text26

Byeconomicforecasts,EuropeandJapanaregoingtodobetter.In2000,theEuropeanUnion’sgrossdomesticproductwillgrow2.8percent,upfrom2.1percentin1999,accordingtoprojectionsbytheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentinParis.27

Japanisprojectedtogrow1.4percent,thesameastheOECDispredictingfor1999butabigimprovementfromthe2.8percentdropin1998.Iftheforecastsmaterialize—andtheOECD’sgrowthestimatesforJapanexceedmostprivateforecasts—theywillrestoresomebalancetotheworldeconomyandrelievefearsofaglobalrecession.Text28

AsiaandLatinAmericacancontinuetorecoverwithoutrelyingsolelyonexportstotheUnitedStates.Butuntilthathappens,noonecanbecertainthatAsia’sfinancialcrisishastrulyended.Itremainspossiblethatabruptsurgesofglobalcapital,firstmovingintoAsiaandthenout,willhavecaused,withsomedelay,alargerinstability.29Globalization’sotherproblemispolitical,culturalandsocial.Peoplefeelthreatenedbyanykindofeconomicchange—andchangefromabroadnaturallyseemsespeciallyalienandmenacing.Text30

ThestreetprotestersattheSeattlemeetingoftheWorldTradeOrganizationinearlyDecembermayhavelackedacommonagendaorevenacoherentcaseagainsttrade.Buttheyaccuratelyreflectedtheanxietyandangerthatglobalizationofteninspires.SodoEuropeanfearsofgeneticallymodifiedfoodornationalisticoppositiontocross-bordermergers.31

Whatislocalandfamiliarissuddenlybeingreplacedor,assaultedbysomethingthatisforeignandunfamiliar.Andeveniftradehelpsmostpeople,itwillusuallycreatesomelosers.IntheUnitedStates,workersinsomehigh-costindustries—steelandautos,mostconspicuously—sufferedfromintensifiedimportcompetition.Text32

Justbecauseglobalizationislargelyspontaneous—propelledbybettercommunicationsandtransportation—doesnotmeanthatitisinevitableorcompletelyirreversible.Governmentscan,insubtleandnot-so-subtleways,shieldlocalindustriesandworkersagainstimportsordiscriminateagainstforeigninvestors.Ifonlyafewcountriesdo,theiractionswillnotmattermuch.Globalcapitalandtradewillgowheretheyaremostwelcomeandproductive.Indeed,itispreciselythislogicthathaspersuadedsomanycountriestoacceptglobalization.Iftheydon’t,someoneelsewill.Judgedbytheirbehavior,mostgovernmentsbelievetheyhavemoretogainthantolose.Text33

Butthisdoesnotmeanthatapowerfulpopularbacklash,withunpredictableconsequences,isnotpossible.Inaglobalrecession,toomanysellerswillbechasingtoofewbuyers.Aplausiblepresumptionisthatpracticalpoliticianswouldtrytoprotecttheirconstituentsfromglobalgluts.Iftoomanycountriesdid,globalizationcouldimplode.34

It’sascaryprospect.Economicinterdependencecutsbothways.Underfavorableconditions,ithelpseveryone;underunfavorableconditions,ithurtseveryone:Globalization’spromisemayexceeditsperil—buttheperilisstillreal.Bothawaitthenewcentury.Oneofthegreatdramaswillbetoseewhichprevails.(1,634words)Text全球化力量的两重性罗伯特·J.塞缪尔森1

在新世纪即将到来之际，全球化已成为一柄双刃剑：一方面它对富国和穷国都是发展经济、传播新技术、提高生活水平的有力手段；但另一方面，它又是一个极具争议的进程，因为在这一过程中，它会侵犯国家主权，损害本土的文化传统，并威胁经济和社会稳定。2

在21世纪，究竟是各国能够控制这个巨大的动荡，还是这动荡将会控制各国，这是一个令人畏惧的问题。Text3

在某些方面，全球化不过是描述过去一个老进程的时髦字眼。我们平时所说的市场其实就是把卖方和买方、生产者和消费者、储蓄者和投资者联系在一起。经济史很大程度上就是市场扩大的历史，先由农场扩大到城镇，然后从地区扩大到全国，再从一个国家扩大到另一个国家。20世纪的经济大萧条和两次世界大战减缓了市场发展的速度。但是二战结束以后，政治压力和先进的技术使市场又加速发展起来。4

从20世纪40年代晚期到80年代，美国带头提倡贸易自由化和经济发展。一连串重大的贸易协议使工业国家的平均关税由1946年的大约40%，降低到1990年的大约5%。Text5

在经历了两次世界大战以后，欧洲人把经济一体化看成是对付激进民族主义的手段。技术给政治提供了有力的帮助。在互联网问世之前，喷气式飞机、更高级的海底电缆和人造卫星等技术不断降低通讯和交通成本，这促进了全球贸易。到20世纪90年代早期，世界出口总额（扣除通货膨胀因素后）几乎比40年前高了10倍。6

全球化使这一过程得以继续，但同时也至少在一个关键的方面背离了它。直到不久前，国家还被认为是独立的经济实体，主要由贸易联系在一起。现在情况已经不完全是这样了。很多公司和金融市场做生产、销售和投资决定时，正逐渐忽视国界。Text7

就在1990年，根据世界金融研究所（一个总部设在华盛顿的银行业研究小组）的统计，由政府——不管是各自单独行动，还是通过像世界银行这样的多边机构——向29个主要的发展中国家提供了一半的信贷和贷款（包括巴西、中国、印度、韩国和墨西哥）。8

但是10年以后，尽管亚洲经历了1997-1998年的金融危机，私人的资金流已使政府的资金流相形见绌。根据这家研究所的统计，1999年私人资金（包括银行贷款、债券融资、在当地股市里的股本投资以及跨国公司的直接投资）流向这29个国家的总额估计已达1,360亿美元，而政府的资金流只有220亿美元。Text9

与此同时，跨国公司在全球范围内掀起收购热潮。仅以1999年上半年计，在发达国家和发展中国家的跨国兼并和收购，其价值已超过5,000亿美元。10

根据联合国的世界投资报告，这一总额大致与1998年全年的数额（5,440亿美元）相当，几乎比1991年的水平（850亿美元）高7倍。最近英国沃达丰AirTouch上市公司和德国曼尼斯公司两大无线电巨头之间围绕收购接管的争斗在规模和激烈程度上是前所未有的。Text11

兼并热潮表明，公司经营者越来越相信很多市场已经真正实现了全球化。很多公司都想通过在尽可能多的国家里尽量扩大它们的影响来实现规模经济——也就是通过提高生产量和销售额来降低成本——同时紧紧跟上如今几乎无处不在的技术变革。12

与此同时，各公司也越来越多地在全球组织生产，把产品设计、零配件制造和最后组装分散到很多国家进行。Text13

但是，推动全球化的并不只是追求更多销量和更大利润的跨国公司。各国政府也同样如此。欧洲对“单一市场”坚持不懈的追求就是一个标志。它反映了一个共识：如果欧洲公司在当地的运营被各国的独立市场严重阻碍的话，那它们在全球市场的竞争就会遇到巨大的压力。14

在比较贫困的国家，支持全球化的最佳标志就是强烈要求加入世贸组织。自1995年至今，已有7个国家加入：保加利亚、厄瓜多尔、爱沙尼亚、吉尔吉斯斯坦、拉脱维亚、蒙古和巴拿马。目前还有32个国家正在申请成为成员国。人们相信，全球贸易与投资能通过提供新的产品、技术和经营管理技能帮助本国经济发展。Text15

这并非神话。一个国家成功与否，主要取决于本国的工人、投资和政府的政策。但是更大范围地与国际经济接轨肯定会有好处。16

就以亚洲为例。尽管有过那次金融危机，但是飞速的贸易扩张和经济发展大大减少了极度贫困人口的数量。据世界银行估计，从1987年到1998年，包括中国在内的地区或国家中，每天平均收入少于1美元的人口比例已从27%降低到15%。17

与此同时，拉美和撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲——由于它们与国际经济接轨较晚，或程度有限——情况就远不如亚洲。比如，据世界银行统计，1998年，非洲46%的人口靠每天不到1美元的生活费生活，这情况与1987年完全相同。Text18

那么，既然全球化如此美妙，为什么它又充满风险呢？答案在于，有两个问题可能会把潜在的好处都抵消掉。19

首先是经济的不稳定。全球性经济与各国单一的经济相比，容易受到更加严重的繁荣—萧条这个经济周期的影响。只有当投资使用得当，进出口贸易也没有严重失衡时，国际贸易和投资会提高生活水平的理论才是对的。20

亚洲的金融危机正是在这两方面都出了问题。20世纪90年代初，多数亚洲国家都经济繁荣，因为它们得到了大量外国资金，比如银行贷款、对工厂或是本地公司的股票市场的直接投资。Text21

随之而来的消费热潮又通过增加进口，帮助欧洲、日本和美国发展经济。但到1997年年中，消费热突然停止，因为情况越来越明显，由于“裙带资本主义”、不当的政府投资政策以及过度乐观的情绪，大量的投资被浪费在无用的工厂、写字楼和公寓上了。22

从某种程度上说，后来是美国惊人的经济表现才使这场亚洲危机没有成为大规模的全球经济衰退。Text23

当时美国经济的不停增长使它能够通过购买更多的进口商品帮助世界上其他国家。从1996年起，美国外贸的往来账目赤字——这是衡量一个国家国际贸易最全面的标准——已经翻了一番多，从1,290亿美元增加到了1999年的3,300亿美元。24

正如财政部部长劳伦斯·萨默斯多次所说，世界经济一直靠着单一引擎在飞速发展。但他也曾警告这种情况不可能永远持续下去。25

现在巨大的危险是一些国家过分依赖美国的繁荣，以至于一旦美国经济出现减速或衰退——反映在股市的下跌、消费者信心的丧失或利率的提高——就可能发展成为一次全球性的经济萧条。Text26

从经济前景来看，欧洲和日本将会有所好转。根据总部设在巴黎的经济合作与发展组织的预测，欧盟2000年的国内生产总值将增长2.8%，1999年增长了2.1%。27

日本预计将提高1.4%，与经合组织对1999年的预测相同，但与1998年下降2.8%相比，是很大的进步。如果这些预计都成为现实——经合组织对日本增长的估计超过了大多数私人的预测——它们就能使全球经济恢复某种平衡，同时解除人们对世界经济萧条的担心。Text28

亚洲和拉美的经济不用单纯依靠对美国的出口也能继续复苏。但在这实现之前，没有人能保证亚洲的金融危机已经真正结束了。仍然存在这样的可能性：全球资金突然猛增，涌入亚洲又撤出，最终将会造成更大的经济不稳定，尽管效应会有一段时期的延后。29

全球化还会带来政治、文化和社会方面的问题。人们对任何经济变化都会感受到威胁——来自国外的变化自然会显得格外陌生和吓人。Text30

今年12月月初在西雅图世贸会期间聚集街头的抗议者们，也许并没有共同纲领，也许连反对贸易的统一的理由都没有。但是他们真真切切地反映了全球化经常引起的焦虑和愤怒。欧洲人对转基因食品的担心和出于民族主义对跨国兼并的反对也是这种情绪的反映。31

大家熟悉的本地东西突然遭到外国那些不熟悉的东西的攻击，或为它们所代替。此外，即便贸易对多数人有帮助，通常也会使一些人蒙受损失。在美国，一些高成本工业的工人们，尤其是钢铁工业和汽车工业，就深受激烈的进口竞争之苦。Text32

全球化在很大程度上是一个自发的过程，由更先进的通讯手段和交通工具推动着。但这并不意味着它是不可避免或不可逆转的。各国政府可以用一些微妙或不那么微妙的办法，保护本国工业和工人不受进口的伤害，或是排斥外国的投资者。如果只有少数几个国家这么干，问题倒不大。全球资本和贸易会转向它们最受欢迎，投资最有效果的地方。实际上，正是因为这个逻辑，那么多国家才会同意接受全球化。如果它们不接受，会有别的国家来接受。从它们的行动来看，大多数国家相信它们这么做得大于失。Text33

然而，这并不意味着民众就不会对全球化表示强烈的反对，并导致难以预料的后果。在全球出现经济衰退时，众多的卖家追逐太少的买主。这时，比较合理的假设是，那些讲实际的政治家们会努力保护他们的选民免受国际上供过于求的伤害。假如这么做的国家太多了，那全球化就会崩溃。34

这是一个可怕的前景。经济的互相依赖既有好处，也有坏处。在条件有利的时候，它对每个人都有好处；条件不好的时候，它却会伤害所有人。全球化可能带来的好处也许超过它带来的危险——但这危险的确存在。两种可能都在等着这新的世纪。我们面临的大戏中，有一场就是看这两种可能性中哪一种能够胜出。TextTextAnalysisAttheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.Asthenewcenturyapproaches,globalizationmeanstwodifferentthings.Itcanhavebothnegativeandpositiveeffects.Ontheonehand,itcangreatlyincreaseeconomicproduction,spreadnewtechnologyandimprovethelivingstandardsinbothrichandpoorcountries;ontheotherhand,itishighlycontroversialbecauseitthreatensnationalsovereignty,destroyslocalcultureandtradition,andislikelytocauseeconomicandsocialinstability.TextAnalysisAttheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.theedge:thepointjustbeforesth.verydifferentandnoticeablehappense.g.1)Itwasreportedintoday’spaperthatthecompanyisontheedgeofcollapse.2)Theoppositionleaderclaimedthatthegovernmenthadbroughtthecountrytotheedgeofacatastrophe.TextAnalysisAttheedgeofanewcentury,globalizationisadouble-edgedsword:apowerfulvehiclethatraiseseconomicgrowth,spreadsnewtechnologyandraiseslivingstandardsinrichandpoorcountriesalike;butalsoanimmenselycontroversialprocessthatassaultsnationalsovereignty,erodeslocalcultureandtraditionandthreatenseconomicandsocialinstability.