发展经济学-课件

古典增长模型

在早期的古典经济理论中，斯密、穆勒、马尔萨斯和李嘉图等人都曾涉及到经济增长（或剩余）同资本、劳动力的关系。他们认为，“剩余”的出现引起了资本的积累，资本的积累同时构成了对劳动力需求的增加，从而加大了就业规模和社会生产规模。而社会生产规模扩大的直接结果就是剩余的增加，再在更高的起点上重复前一过程。如此反复，从而带动了经济的增长。这也就是经济增长理论基础和经济曾长模型的理论依据。

古典增长模型

在早期的古典经济理论中，斯密、穆勒、马1新古典增长模型

新古典增长模型(NeoclassicalGrowthModel)这一模型假定：1、全社会只生产一种产品；2、生产要素之间可以相互替代；3、生产的规模收益不变；4、储蓄率不变；5、不存在技术进步；6、人口增长率不变。从而得到sf(k)=Δk+nk。式中：s为储蓄率；k为人均资本占有量；y=f(k)为人均形式的生产函数；n为人口（或劳动力）增长率；Δk为单位时间内人均资本的改变量。模型表明，一个经济社会在单位时期内（如1年）按人口平均的储蓄量被用于两个部分：一部分为人均资本的增加k，即为每一个人配备更多的资本设备；另一部分是为新增加的人口配备按原有的人均资本配备设备nk。第一部分被称为资本的深化，而后一部分则被称为资本的广化。

新古典增长模型新古典增长模型(Neoclas2精品资料精品资料3你怎么称呼老师？如果老师最后没有总结一节课的重点的难点，你是否会认为老师的教学方法需要改进？你所经历的课堂，是讲座式还是讨论式？教师的教鞭“不怕太阳晒，也不怕那风雨狂，只怕先生骂我笨，没有学问无颜见爹娘……”“太阳当空照，花儿对我笑，小鸟说早早早……”发展经济学--ppt课件4Topic11.WhataretheassumptionsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?2.HowdoestheRicardiangrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?3.WhataretheimplicationsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?Topic11.Whataretheas51、WhataretheassumptionsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?

1、Whataretheassumptionsof6

（1）、Naturalresources

（2）、Malthusianidea

（1）、Naturalres7Naturalresources1、Naturalresourcesconsideredthemainconstrainttogrowth.thisclassicalidea,theRicardianmodel,wasparticularlyappropriateinbritain,whichisanislandwithlimitedcultivableland.themarginalproductivtyoflabordeclinesasmorelandisbroughtintoproduction.自然资源被认为是经济增长的主要限制因素。这个古典理念,李嘉图模型,特别适用于英国,这是一个岛屿有限的可耕种的土地。随着更多的土地投入生产，边际劳动生产率下降。2、incontrast,mostmoderntheoristsimplicitlybelievethattechnologywill"bailusout"asweapproachthelimitsofnaturalresources.recently,someeconomistshavereturnedtoricardianthinking.相反,大多数现代理论家含蓄地相信技术将“拯救我们“当我们接近极限的自然资源。最近,一些经济学家已经回到了李嘉图的思考。Naturalresources1、Naturalres8Malthusianidea

Themalthusianideathatpopulationsexpandsendogenouslywithoutoutput.whateveroutputgrowspopulationalsowillexpanduntilaverageconsumptiondropstotheleverofsubsistence.Inotherwords,wheneveraneconomyproducestoomuch,peoplewillprocreatetoexpandtheirnumbersuntiltheyreverttosubsistencelever.Thus,standarsoflivingaredoomedtostagnateForthisreasoneconomicsusedtobelabeledthedismalscience.Thistheoryisnotjustanantiquatedrelic,irrelevantforcurrentpurposes.Itappearstooperateeveninmoderntimesinpartsofasiaandafricawherepopulationhasgrownatroughlythesamerateasoutput.马尔萨斯的想法:人口膨胀内生没有输出。无论何时产量增长，人口也将扩大到平均消费水平下降到生存的杠杆。换句话说,当一个经济体的产品太多,人们会产生扩大他们的数字直到他们恢复生计杆,因此,标准的生活注定会停滞不前。因为这个原因经济学用于被贴上沉闷的科学。这一理论不仅是一个过时的遗物,为当前的目的无关。它似乎运作，甚至是在现代的亚洲和非洲部分地区,人口增长大致相同的汇率作为输出.Malthusianidea

Themalthusia9李嘉图模型解释了低收入国家在农业停滞的状态下进行工业发展必然受到自然资源制约的问题。如果工业化初期的人口迅速增长和食品供给的增长不相匹配，食品价格的大幅度上扬，会使以恩格尔系数高为特征的低收入居民的生活费用飞涨。这就会通过有组织的讨价还价以及食品骚动对工资上涨产生很大的压力。作为结果而发生的工资上升，可能会严重地打击依赖于劳动密集技术的工业化初期的工业。对于这些发展中国家，除了在工业化的同时促进农业技术进步外，似乎没有其他办法来摆脱李嘉图陷阱。……显而易见，发展中国家只要遵循发达的工业化国家以往的农业生产率增长方式，就能摆脱李嘉图陷阱（制约工业化初期经济增长的资源禀赋机制）李嘉图模型解释了低收入国家在农业停滞的状态下进行工业发展必然10WhataretheassumptionsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?1、laboristheonlyresourceimportantforproduction.2、laborproductivityvariesacrosscountries,usuallyduetodifferencesintechnology,butlaborproductivityineachcountryisconstantacrosstime.3、thesupplyoflaborineachcountryisconstant.4、competitionallowslaborerstobepaida“competitive”wage,afunctionoftheirproductivityandthepriceofthegoodthattheycansell,andallowslaborerstoworkintheindustrythatpaysthehighestwage.5、onlytwocontriesaremodeled:domesticandforeign

Whataretheassumptionsofth112、HowdoestheRicardiangrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?发展经济学--ppt课件12Ricardointhecapitalisteconomicgrowthpointofview,themoderneconomicdevelopmentandeconomicgrowththeoryorigin,theoreticalsignificanceandvalue.李嘉图对资本主义经济增长的观点、代经济发展和经济增长理论的渊源具有理论意义和价值。Ricardointhecapitalistecon13theoreticalsignificanceandvalue1、Fromthethoughtsofeconomicdevelopmentevolutionperspective,ricardonegativeeconomicgrowthisinresourceinfinitesupplyconditions,isundoubtedlyprogress.Inthericardoago,AdamSmithandthelimitedresourcesgrowthrestrictionconditiontoinvestigate,rarelyconsiderthetotalpopulationphaselimitedresourcesandthecauseoftheproblem.Butintherealeconomicgrowthprocessperspective,anyeconomicgrowthonthebasisofanobjective,ricardiantheoryismoreclosetotheeconomicgrowthoftheobjectivereality,thisiswithoutadoubtprogress.theoreticalsignificanceandv14theoreticalsignificanceandvalue2、itispointedoutthatonecountrylong-termeconomicdevelopmentistheopeningtotheoutsideworld,andtheworldeconomyweldingprocess,isricardooneconomicdevelopmentofthetheory.Ricardoforeigntradeeconomicgrowthcanbediscussedrevealsthatwhenacountryeconomicdevelopmenttothestage,andtheworldeconomicintegration,foreigntradeandinternationaldivisionoflaborwillbeonecountryeconomicgrowthmechanismofthecomposition.Conversely,closedthedomesticmarket,howtoenormouslyfullofcompetitiveness,alsonotallowedbytheresourcesofthenationalwealthgrowthpotential.,anypursuitofdevelopmentshouldconsciouslyintheworldeconomy,withinthescopeoftheinternationaldivisionoflaborandtradetheinterestintoitseconomicgrowth.Ricardoargumentformostdevelopedeconomicgrowthhistoricalfactshaveproved.theoreticalsignificanceandv15theoreticalsignificanceandvalue3、Ricardoisthesourceofsocialwealthaccumulation,accumulatedandcausesofthewealthofthesocietydeterminants.Ricardianlaborproductivitytoeconomicgrowththoughts,totheeconomicgrowthinChinaandthechangeofthesustainabledevelopment,andhasreferencesignificance.Intheeconomicdevelopmentofacountryinitialstagetotheproductionelementsofthehighinput,highconsumption,attheexpenseofthepursuitofeconomyinspeedofexpansion,anddon'tpayattentiontothequalityofdevelopmentandthusbringeconomicandsocialproblems.Highinput,highconsumptionbringshighspeed,intheshorttermpricerise,addingtopopulation,resources,economic,andsocialcontradiction,causetheeconomicdevelopmentoftheviciouscircle.Growthisnotadvisable,itiseconomicunsustainabledevelopment,notonlytheabuseofresources,andthescenesandthesociety.Therefore,thetransformationofeconomicgrowthtointensivesustainabledevelopmentinourcountryhowgreatandfar-reachingsignificance.theoreticalsignificanceandv163、WhataretheimplicationsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?

3、Whataretheimplicationsof17Thericardianmodelhasaclearimplication:inthelongrun,labor‘spercapitaconsumptionmustreverttosubsistencelever

李嘉图模型有一个清晰的含义:从长远来看,劳动的人均消费必须回归生存杆

Thericardianmodelhasaclea18Topic2

1.WhatdoestheassumptionsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?2.HowdoestheLewisgrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?3.WhataretheimplicationsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?Topic219

"Dualeconomy"referstothedevelopingcountry'seconomyismadeupoftwodifferenteconomicsectorscomposition.Oneisthetraditionaldepartment,andthesecondisthemoderndepartment."Dualeconomy"referstothe201.WhatdoestheassumptionsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?1.Theinfinitelaborsupply,laborforceshiftofthemarginalcostiszero2.Thesalariesoftheworkersisconstant3.Theefficiencyoftheindustrialsectorishigherthanagriculture.4.Highprofitallconversionforinvestment1.Whatdoestheassumptionsof21

Self-sufficientagricultureandsimple,retailbusiness,serviceindustry,laborproductivityisverylow,marginallaborproductivityclosetozeroandevenlessthanzero,unskilledlaborwagesisextremelylow,inthedepartmentofthepresenceoflargeamountsofdisguisedunemployment,butcontaindevelopingcountriesmostofthelaborforce.Self-sufficientagriculturea22TechnologyisadvancedGongKuangYe,construction,modernbusiness,services,accommodateemploymentlesslabor,laborproductivityishigher,wageleveltobehigher,inthetraditionaldepartmentabovewages.TechnologyisadvancedGongKua23Therearealargeamountofsurpluslabortraditionaldepartment'spercapitaincomeleveldeterminesthelowerlimitofmoderndepartmentwage,moderndepartmentfromthetraditionaldepartmentoflaborforcetoabsorbinalargeamount,andthebasicwagesremainunchanged.Thisisthecoreofthemodeltheory.Moderndepartmentprofitfromlaboroutputisgreaterthanthetotalpayrollpart,andconstantlyputprofitintocapitalexpandedreproduction,untilthetraditionaldepartment'ssurpluslaborisfullabsorption.So,themoderndepartmentgreatlyexpansion,thetraditionaldepartmentonlyinsurpluslaborisabsorbedafterthecompletionofthelaborproductivitytoimprove,thetraditionaldepartmentemployedincomecanimprove.Therearealargeamountofsu24

2.HowdoestheLewisgrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?

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从刘易斯模型可以看出，二元经济下的经济发展取决于多方面的因素

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(1)两部门；劳动生产力的高低(2)两部门技术进步的类型(3)两部门的工资水平，特别是现代部门的工资水平(4)人口增长率的高低(1)两部门；劳动生产力的高低27发展经济学--ppt课件28

3.WhataretheimplicationsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?3.Whataretheimplicationso29

TheLewismodelimpliesthatLDCgrowthisindeedquitehopeful.Industrialistsareexpectedtomakeampleprofits.Thisencouragesthemtoaccumulatecapitalandexpandindustrysothedemandforlaborincreases.Themodelimpliesasteadyaccumulationofcapital,atleastuntilsurpluslaborisexhausted.Afterthat,thegrowthprocessrevertstoessentiallyneoclassicalgrowth.Solongasthewagerateremainslow,thecapital/laborratioutilizedinindustryalsoremainsconstant.Thustherateofreturnoncapitalstayshigh,therebyencouragingcontinuedinvestmentforKaccumulation.TheLewismodelimpliesthat30

刘易斯模型意味着LDC增长确实非常希望。工业家预计将使足够的利润。这鼓励他们积累资本,扩大行业因此对劳动力的需求增加。该模型意味着一个稳定的资本积累,至少直到耗尽剩余劳动力。在那之后,增长过程本质上是新古典增长恢复。只要工资率仍然很低,资本/劳动比用于工业也保持不变。因此,资本回报比率保持高,从而鼓励持续投资对K累积。刘易斯模型意味着LDC增长确实非常希望。工业家预计将使足31

(1)Theindustrialsectormustbeespeciallyencouraged,possiblybyattractingforeigncapitalistswhoinvestinviewofthelowwagerate.Alternativethegovernmentmightintervenetostimulatedomesticindustrythatisinitiallyprotectedfromimportcompetition.Inotherwords,industrycouldstartbyimport-substituting-industrialization.(1)Theindustrialsectormust32

(2)Savings,whichprovideforinvestmentbycapitalists,shouldbeespeciallyencouraged.Animportantinducementistoassureahighrateofindustrialprofitbyensuringthatwagesindeedremainlow,atleastuntilallthesurpluslaborisconsumed.Ingeneraltermsthisisdonebyextractingresourcesfromtheagriculturalsector(bytaxationorlowfoodprices)anddivertingthesetowardindustry.Lewisalsoexplicitlyrecognizedthepossibilityofstate-capitalism,andstate-bearingdirectresponsibilityforinvestment.(2)Savings,whichprovidefor33Lewisturningpoint"Lewisturningpoint"inshortisbeforethisturningpointherenomatterhowmanynewobtainemployment,wageswon'trise,thisisatypicaldualeconomydevelopment;Atthispointafterlaborsupplyisnotinfinite,salarybeginstorise,percapitabeginsmaterialitygroundgrowth,thisisatypicalmoderneconomygrowth.Lewisturningpoint"Lewisturn34TopictodiscussTheShortageofRuralLabors

andtheLewisianTurningPointinChinaTopictodiscussTheShortageo35DualeconomicMostdevelopingcountrieshavetoundergoadualeconomicdevelopmentprocess.Theoutstandingfeatureisthattherurallaborforcefortherestoftheindustrializedprovidecheaplaborsupply,wagegrowthisslow,employmentrelationshipworkersagainstincomegapbetweenurbanandruralareascontinued.Accordingtothedevelopmentoflogic,thisprocesswillcontinuetolaborforcefromtheinfinitesupplyintoshortage,growthmodetorealizequalitativeleap,intothemoderneconomicgrowthstagesofar.DualeconomicMostdeveloping36Duetothedualeconomicdevelopmenttheoryframeworkisputforwardbyeconomistslewis,therefore,thiskindoflaborforcefromtheinfinitesupplytotheshortageoftransformation,namelythedualeconomicstructuretransformation,alsoknownas"lewisturningpoint".Previousinternationaldevelopmentexperienceshowthatthebinaryeconomicdevelopmentstage,acountryorregioncanthroughtheformationofproductiveofthepopulationstructure,economicgrowthtoprovidepopulationbonus;Binarystructureconversionkey,isatraditionaldemographicdividenddisappearandchangethewayofgrowth.Duetothedualeconomicdevel37China'scurrentsituationInthereformandopeningperiod,China'srapideconomicgrowthisinbinaryeconomicconditions.Inthisperiod,workingagepopulation(16-64yearsoldpopulation)bigscale,highproportionandgrowing,sopopulationburdenislight,toensurethesufficientlaborsupplyandhighsavingsrate,foreconomicgrowthbroughtthedemographicdividend.China'scurrentsituationInt38Researchshowsthat,inthereformperiod,raisingpopulationthan(16yearsoldthefollowingand65yearsoldpopulationandtheratioofworkingagepopulationeachfellby1%,canincreasethepercapitaGDPgrowthof0.115%;Thatistosay,thepopulationthanraisingthedrop,toreformthepercapitaGDPgrowthduringthecontributionrateofupto27%.However,accordingtothepopulationagestructureprediction,by2013,withtherapidityofthepopulation'saging,China'spopulationthanraisingwillstopdownandturntoimprove.Also,thepopulationthanraisingeveryincreasedby1%,willmakethepercapitaGDPgrowthratereducedby0.115%.Researchshowsthat,inthere39Thetotalpopulationandagestructureisthebasisofthelaborsupply.Basedontheabovepopulationstructureoftheforecastandanalysis,wecanbesure,atpresentoriginatedincoastalareasandspreadinlaborshortage,nottemporaryphenomenon,but"lewisturningpoint"signsofarrival.If"lewisturningpoint"andwithoutaclearpointofwords,wecansay,China'seconomyhasenteredinto"lewisturninginterval".Thetotalpopulationandages40Thisjudgmentstillcanusethefollowingfactstoconfirm.Firstofall,30yearsthroughtheimplementationofthefamilyplanningpolicy,China'spopulationtransformationintoanewstage,thetotalfertilityrate(generallyunderstoodasawomanlifechildrennumber)haslessthan2.1replacementlevel,atpresentis1.7.Secondly,workingagepopulationgrowthratetodropyearbyyear,expected"11thfive-yearplan"periodfromthetotalamountcan'tmeetthenon-agriculturalindustry'slabordemand,long-termLaboursupplyisgreaterthandemandpatternwillbereversed.Thisjudgmentstillcanuseth41SuchaturningpointforChina'seconomywillbringwhatkindofchallenge?"Lewisturningpoint"isneverdevelopedtodevelopedeconomicturninggates.Inthisturningbefore,economicgrowthmainlybycapitalandlaborinputdrive,andafterturningpoint,economicgrowthdependsontheproductivityincreasetodrive.Therefore,therealizationoftheinputfromdependonthewaytoimprovetheproductivitygrowthdependsonthegrowthmodeofchange,canbe"lewisturningpoint"intopositivefactorsofthekey.Specificfor,inthisturningpoint,orhaveanticipatedthefollowingandeconomicgrowthchangesrelatedcharacteristics.SuchaturningpointforChina42First,thelaborshortageofcommoninurbanandruralareas.Onthesurface,inrecentyears,seemstobeanannualincreaseofemploymentisstillnotenoughtoabsorballurbanandruralsurpluslaborforce.Butasaresultofemploymentstatisticscannotfullycoversrealemployment,statisticalfiguresreflectedthenumberofjobsisfarlessthantheactualemployment.Forexample,intheconstructionsector,aformalintostatisticalworker,usuallycandrivethefivetotendidnotincludethestatisticalLaoWuGong.Andinmanylargestate-ownedenterprise,thisdidnotincludestatisticalworkersalsoaccountforallemployedalargeproportion.Inthecountryside,removeintothetownshipandvillageenterprisesemployment,transferredtotheurbanemploymentandagriculturalproductionneedtolabor,theso-called"surpluslaborforce",isactuallyemploymentbyage,sex,familystatusandotherfactorsofworkingagepopulation,theiremploymentchoicerangerelativelylimited.First,thelaborshortageofc43Second,ordinaryworkerswagesrise,sothattoimprovelaborcosts.Sincelate1990s,thecitynormallabormarketeachyear,experiencingdouble-digitwagerise,thisnotonlyoccurredinmonopolyindustries,alsooccurredinthemainabsorptionordinaryworkersemploymentmanufacturingindustries.Inurbanemploymentofrurallaborflowofwageincreasespeedevenfaster.Accordingtothefivebigcitiessurvey,in2001-2005period,foreignlaborhourwageincreasespeed,morethan64%highercitylocalworkers.Laborcosts,thechangetrend,haveforeigninvestmentorientationandenterprisemanagementstatehasproducedcertaineffect.Second,ordinaryworkerswages44Third,foralongtimetopromoteChina'seconomicgrowthwilltendtoreducethehighsavingsrate.Causethecauseofthesustainedhighsavingsrateinthreemain:first,thepopulationburdenislight,soeconomicsurplusproportionislarge;Secondly,ordinaryworkershouseholdincomegrowth,domesticdemandisinsufficient,whichleadstotheresidents'highsavingstendency;Thirdly,socialsecuritynotfullandexpectationsarenotstable,inducedresidentsthroughthesavingstorealizeselfinsurance.Butasthepopulationdeclinethanraisingspeedslowandwillsoonturnup,togetherwithordinaryworkerswagesrisewillchangetheoveralltendencyofconsumptionandsavingstendency,andthesocialsecuritysystemhasbeenimprovedgradually,andtheabovefactorswillhappenreversechangeofdirection,thusinevitablyinhibitsavingsrateinthetrendofsustainedhigh.Third,foralongtimetoprom45Ofcourse,laborsupplytrendchangeisstillonlyincrementalsense,Chineselaborcostandthedevelopedcountriesandmanydevelopingcountries,andinaquitelongtimewillstillbelow,thesavingsratefromhightolowchangealsowon'thappenovernight.Therefore,"theChineseeconomywillsoonloselabor-intensiveproductscomparativeadvantageandcompetitiveness"judgmentandworrystillpremature.However,thechangingtheenvironmentofeconomicdevelopmenturgentlyputforwardtherequirementsofthechangeinthepatternofeconomicgrowth.Cansay,China'seconomyisnowatacrossroads.Correctjudgmentdevelopmentphasechange,andusethisaspolicybasisforpropersystemadjustment,isthecurrentshouldmakereasonablereaction.Ofcourse,laborsupplytrend46Inparticular,weshouldbehowtodealwith?-Throughthedevelopmentalfactormarket,changethewayofeconomicgrowth.Laborgraduallybecomescarceelements,willcausecapitaldiminishingreturns,mainlyrelyonfactorofproductioninputgrowthmodewouldbedifficult.Thechangeinthepatternofgrowthofdemandistogivetheeconomicgrowthbasedontotalfactorproductivityincreasingbasedon,notsimplyfromthelaborintensiveindustrystructuretocapitalintensiveindustrystructure.Inparticular,weshouldbeho47Therefore,thecorrectwayistoconformtothetrendofproductionfactorendowmentchangeforinvestorsandenterprisetocreateasignalaccurately,thefunctionisperfectproductionfactorsmarketenvironment,andavoidt