全球液化天然市场前景报告2024（英）

ShellLNGOutlook2024

Shellplc

Cautionarynote

ThecompaniesinwhichShellplcdirectlyandindirectlyownsinvestmentsareseparatelegalentities.InthisLNGOutlook“Shell”,“ShellGroup”and“Group”aresometimesusedforconveniencewherereferencesaremadetoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneral.Likewise,thewords“we”,“us”and“our”arealsousedtorefertoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneralortothosewhoworkforthem.Thesetermsarealsousedwherenousefulpurposeisservedbyidentifyingtheparticularentityorentities.‘‘Subsidiaries’’,“Shellsubsidiaries”and“Shellcompanies”asusedinthisLNGOutlookrefertoentitiesoverwhichShellplceitherdirectlyorindirectlyhascontrol.EntitiesandunincorporatedarrangementsoverwhichShellhasjointcontrolaregenerallyreferredtoas“jointventures”and“jointoperations”,respectively.“Jointventures”and“jointoperations”arecollectivelyreferredtoas“jointarrangements”.EntitiesoverwhichShellhassignificantinfluencebutneithercontrolnorjointcontrolarereferredtoas“associates”.Theterm“Shellinterest”isusedforconveniencetoindicatethedirectand/orindirectownershipinterestheldbyShellinanentityorunincorporatedjointarrangement,afterexclusionofallthird-partyinterest.

Forward-LookingStatements

ThisLNGOutlookcontainsforward-lookingstatements(withinthemeaningoftheU.S.PrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995)concerningthefinancialcondition,resultsofoperationsandbusinessesofShell.Allstatementsotherthanstatementsofhistoricalfactare,ormaybedeemedtobe,forward-lookingstatements.Forward-lookingstatementsarestatementsoffutureexpectationsthatarebasedonmanagement’scurrentexpectationsandassumptionsandinvolveknownandunknownrisksanduncertaintiesthatcouldcauseactualresults,performanceoreventstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedinthesestatements.Forward-lookingstatementsinclude,amongotherthings,statementsconcerningthepotentialexposureofShelltomarketrisksandstatementsexpressingmanagement’sexpectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projectionsandassumptions.Theseforward-lookingstatementsareidentifiedbytheiruseoftermsandphrasessuchas“aim”,“ambition”,‘‘anticipate’’,‘‘believe’’,‘‘could’’,‘‘estimate’’,‘‘expect’’,‘‘goals’’,‘‘intend’’,‘‘may’’,“milestones”,‘‘objectives’’,‘‘outlook’’,‘‘plan’’,‘‘probably’’,‘‘project’’,‘‘risks’’,“schedule”,‘‘seek’’,‘‘should’’,‘‘target’’,‘‘will’’andsimilartermsandphrases.ThereareanumberoffactorsthatcouldaffectthefutureoperationsofShellandcouldcausethoseresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedintheforward-lookingstatementsincludedinthisOutlook,including(withoutlimitation):(a)pricefluctuationsincrudeoilandnaturalgas;(b)changesindemandforShell’sproducts;(c)currencyfluctuations;(d)drillingandproductionresults;(e)reservesestimates;(f)lossofmarketshareandindustrycompetition;(g)environmentalandphysicalrisks;(h)risksassociatedwiththeidentificationofsuitablepotentialacquisitionpropertiesandtargets,andsuccessfulnegotiationandcompletionofsuchtransactions;(i)theriskofdoingbusinessindevelopingcountriesandcountriessubjecttointernationalsanctions;(j)legislative,judicial,fiscalandregulatorydevelopmentsincludingregulatorymeasuresaddressingclimatechange;(k)economicandfinancialmarketconditionsinvariouscountriesandregions;(l)politicalrisks,includingtherisksofexpropriationandrenegotiationofthetermsofcontractswithgovernmentalentities,delaysoradvancementsintheapprovalofprojectsanddelaysinthereimbursementforsharedcosts;(m)risksassociatedwiththeimpactofpandemics,suchastheCOVID-19(coronavirus)outbreak,regionalconflicts,suchasRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,andasignificantcybersecuritybreach;and(n)changesintradingconditions.Noassuranceisprovidedthatfuturedividendpaymentswillmatchorexceedpreviousdividendpayments.Allforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisLNGOutlookareexpresslyqualifiedintheirentiretybythecautionarystatementscontainedorreferredtointhissection.Readersshouldnotplaceunduerelianceonforward-lookingstatements.AdditionalriskfactorsthatmayaffectfutureresultsarecontainedinShellplc’sForm20-FfortheyearendedDecember31,2022(availableat/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.htmland).Theseriskfactorsalsoexpresslyqualifyallforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisOutlookandshouldbeconsideredbythereader.Eachforward-lookingstatementspeaksonlyasofthedateofthisOutlook,February14,2024.NeitherShellplcnoranyofitssubsidiariesundertakeanyobligationtopubliclyupdateorreviseanyforward-lookingstatementasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherinformation.Inlightoftheserisks,resultscoulddiffermateriallyfromthosestated,impliedorinferredfromtheforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisLNGOutlook.

Shell’snetcarbonintensity

Also,inthisLNGOutlookwemayrefertoShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”,whichincludesShell’scarbonemissionsfromtheproductionofourenergyproducts,oursuppliers’carbonemissionsinsupplyingenergyforthatproductionandourcustomers’carbonemissionsassociatedwiththeiruseoftheenergyproductswesell.Shellonlycontrolsitsownemissions.TheuseofthetermShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”isforconvenienceonlyandnotintendedtosuggesttheseemissionsarethoseofShellplcoritssubsidiaries.

Shell’snet-ZeroEmissionsTarget

Shell’soperatingplan,outlookandbudgetsareforecastedforaten-yearperiodandareupdatedeveryyear.Theyreflectthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandwhatwecanreasonablyexpecttoseeoverthenexttenyears.Accordingly,theyreflectourScope1,Scope2andNetCarbonIntensity(NCI)targetsoverthenexttenyears.However,Shell’soperatingplanscannotreflectour2050net-zeroemissionstargetand2035NCItarget,asthesetargetsarecurrentlyoutsideourplanningperiod.Inthefuture,associetymovestowardsnet-zeroemissions,weexpectShell’soperatingplanstoreflectthismovement.However,ifsocietyisnotnetzeroin2050,asoftoday,therewouldbesignificantriskthatShellmaynotmeetthistarget.

Shellexpectstopublishits2024EnergyTransitionStrategyonMarch14,2024,whichwillincludeanupdateonShell’senergytransitionstrategyandsetoutShell’sclimatetargetsandambitionsforthefuture.

ForwardLookingNon-GAAPmeasures

ThisLNGOutlookmaycontaincertainforward-lookingnon-GAAPmeasuressuchas[cashcapitalexpenditure]and[divestments].Weareunabletoprovideareconciliationoftheseforward-lookingNon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresbecausecertaininformationneededtoreconcilethoseNon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresisdependentonfutureeventssomeofwhichareoutsidethecontrolofShell,suchasoilandgasprices,interestratesandexchangerates.Moreover,estimatingsuchGAAPmeasureswiththerequiredprecisionnecessarytoprovideameaningfulreconciliationisextremelydifficultandcouldnotbeaccomplishedwithoutunreasonableeffort.Non-GAAPmeasuresinrespectoffutureperiodswhichcannotbereconciledtothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasurearecalculatedinamannerwhichisconsistentwiththeaccountingpoliciesappliedinShellplc’sconsolidatedfinancialstatements.

ThecontentsofwebsitesreferredtointhisreportdonotformpartoftheLNGOutlook2024.

Wemayhaveusedcertainterms,suchasresources,inthisLNGOutlookthattheUnitedStatesSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)strictlyprohibitsusfromincludinginourfilingswiththeSEC.InvestorsareurgedtoconsidercloselythedisclosureinourForm20-F,FileNo1-32575,availableontheSECwebsite.

Shellplc February2024 2

Summary

Industry,heatingandemergingAsiatodriveLNGdemandgrowth

Demandfornaturalgashaspeakedinsomeregionsandgloballyissettopeakafter2040.

TheglobalLNGmarketwillcontinuegrowingintothe2040s,mostlydrivenbyChina’sindustrialdecarbonisationandstrengtheningdemandinotherAsiancountries.

Shellplc

Gaspricesmorestablein2023butvolatilitylingeredinatightmarket

GlobaltradeinLNGexpandedslightlyin2023,withtightsuppliesconstraininggrowthandpricesstayingabovehistoricaverages.

Amilderwinter,highgasstoragelevels,modesteconomicrecoveryinChinaandlowerdemandinEuropehelpedbalancetheglobalgasmarketduring2023.

RisingglobaldemandforLNGexpectedtokeeppacewithnewsupply

Inthemediumterm,latentdemandforLNG–especiallyinAsia–issettoconsumenewsupplythatisexpectedtocomeontothemarketinthesecondhalfofthe2020s.

TooffsetfallingdomesticgasproductioninSouth-eastAsia,significantinfrastructureinvestmentwillbeneededtoaccesstheLNGthatthesecountriesneedfortheireconomicdevelopment.

Industry,heatingand

emergingAsiatodrive 1

LNGdemandgrowth

ShellShellplcplc

Gasusepeaksinsomemarkets,continuestogrowgloballyLNGtoplayincreasinglyimportantroleinglobalgassupply

Peakgasdemandbydecade

Russia

2040s+

Japan

USA2030s

2010s

China2040s

Indonesia

Nigeria

India

2040s+

Regions

2040s+

2040s+

2010s

2020s

SouthAfrica

2030s

Argentina

2040s

2040s+

2030s

Source:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedata

CAGR:Compoundannualgrowthrate

Gasdemandbysector

BCM

5.000

4.500

4.000

3.500

3.000

2.500

2.000

1.500

1.000

500

0

2023

2040

Electricity

Industry

Buildings

Transport

Other

Naturalgassupplysource

BCM

5.000

CAGR

4.500

4.000

3.6%

3.500

3.000

-0.2%

2.500

2.000

1.500

0.5%

1.000

500

0

2023

2040

LNG

Pipelineimports

Domesticproduction

Shellplc February2024 5

Industry,buildingstobekeydemanddriversinemergingAsiaLNGexpectedtomeetmorethan75%ofthisgrowth

EmergingAsianaturalgasdemand

BCM

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2023

2040

2023

2040

2023

2040

MainlandChina

SouthAsia

South-eastAsia

Electricity

Industry

Buildings

Transport

Other

EmergingAsiagassupplysource

BCM

CAGR

1.200

1.000

800

5.1%

600

400

4.4%

200

0.5%

0

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Domestic

Pipelineimports

LNG

Source:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedata

Shellplc February2024 6

IndustrymustaddressCO2emissions

Gasesexpectedtoplayanimportantroleinreducingsectoremissions

Comparativeemissions

ChinaexposuretoEUCBAM

WaystodecarboniseChinesesteel

MtCO2/yr.

2022

%

0.4

$bn

100%

Chinasteelsector

90%

80%

70%

Top3Europeanemitters

5.3

$bn

60%

50%

Japan

40%

30%

20%

Aviation

10%

17.3

$bn

0%

Internationalshipping

0

500

1.000

1.500

Germany

UK

Turkey

Fertiliser

Ironandsteel

Aluminium

Gas-driven

Gas-supported

Other

Source:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,IEAdata,NetZeroRoadmapforChina’ssteelindustrystudyforGlobalEfficiencyIntelligence&LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory2023

CBAM:CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism.ValueofChineseexportstoEUthatwillbecoveredbyCBAMatimplementation.CCUS:carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(includesbio-energyCCUS).ThreelargestEuropeanemitters:Germany,UK,Turkey

Shellplc February2024 7

Policyandinvestmentcontinuesforgasprojectswithenvironmentalandemissionsbenefits

AsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBank

EnergydemandandairqualityinBeijing

energyprojectfunding2016-2023

BCMe

Unhealthydays

$M

1.800

25

200

1.600

180

1.400

20

160

140

1.200

15

120

1.000

100

800

10

80

600

60

400

5

40

200

20

0

0

0

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Electricityinfrastructure

Gas

Greenfinancing

Renewablegeneration

Gasdemand

Coaldemand

Unhealthydays

Sources:ShellinterpretationofAsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBankdata,BeijingMunicipalBureauofStatisticsandAirQualityIndexdata

Unhealthydays:definedasanAirQualityindexwithPM2.5greaterthan150µg/m3

Shellplc February2024 8

GascurrentlyplayskeyroleinmeetingheatingdemandElectrificationwillneedinvestment,supplychainandbuildingsimprovements

EnglandandWalesbuildings:gas*andtotalelectricitydemand

GWh/d

3.500

3.000

2.500

2.000

1.500

1.000

500

0

nov2018

mrt2019

jul2019

nov2019

mrt2020

jul2020

nov2020

mrt2021

jul2021

nov2021

mrt2022

jul2022

nov2022

mrt2023

jul2023

nov2023

Gas* Electricity**

Sources:ShellinterpretationofUKNationalGridESOandUKNationalGasdata2023,WoodMacKenziedata2023*LocalDistributionZones(low-pressuregassuppliedtobuildings)inEnglandandWales**TotalelectricitydemandforEnglandandWales

Buildingsgasdemand

BCM(2022)

UK

MainlandChina

33

EuropeanUnion

USA

Shellplc February2024 9

Renewables,supportedbygas,erodescoal’sroleinAsia

China SouthAsia South-eastAsia

CapacityGW Generationshare CapacityGW Generationshare CapacityGW Generationshare

7.000

70%

1.400

70%

6.000

60%

1.200

60%

5.000

50%

1.000

50%

4.000

40%

800

40%

3.000

30%

600

30%

2.000

20%

400

20%

1.000

10%

200

10%

0

0%

0

0%

2022

2030

2035

2040

2022

2030

2035

2040

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables

Hydro

Other

%coalshare

%gasshare

1.000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2022 2030 2035 2040

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedata

Shellplc February2024 10

Gasprovidesgridstability,enablingahighershareofrenewablesingeneration

VariablehourlypowergenerationinSpain

GWh/h

5,0

4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

18-feb 19-feb 20-feb 21-feb 22-feb 23-feb

Gas Wind&Solar Hydro Nuclear Other

Source:ShellinterpretationofEuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsdata2023

Spanishfigurescalculatedfrom15-minuteintervals

Otherincludesbiomass,otherrenewablesandcoal

VariabledailypowergenerationintheNetherlands

GWh/d

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

01

02

03

2023

nov

nov

nov

nov

nov

nov

nov

nov

dec

dec

dec

Coal

Gas

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Other

Imports

Exports

Shellplc February2024 11

MarinesectorcontinuestoreduceemissionsthroughLNG

Liquefiedgasescancombinewithtechnologiestohelpreduceemissions

Vesselorderbook(2023)

(Grosstonnage)

Conventional

Hydrogen&derivatives

LNG

Other

ProjectedLNGbunkeringto2028

(‘000tonnes)

12.000

10.000

8.000

6.000

4.000

2.000

PathwaystoCO2ereduction

Lower-emissionfuels

LNG BioLNG LSG

Efficienttech Futuretech

Net

Zero

537LNG-fuelledvessels

onorder

469LNG-fuelledvessels

0

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Bulkers

Containerships

Cruise

Tankers

PCC,Ro-Ro,Ferries

Others

Lowmethaneslipengines–airlubrication–hullcoatings

–digitalisation–shaftpowergeneration–methaneslipmitigation/elimination

OnboardCCS–

co-feedingH2

engines–fuelcell

formainengine

inoperation

Combinedwithnewtechnologies

Source:ShellinterpretationofClarksonsResearch,DNV

Hydrogen&derivatives:methanol,ammonia,hydrogen,biofuel.Other:Ethane,LPG,nuclear.PCC:purecarcarriers.Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-off.Others:dredgers,ferries,multi-purpose,LPG,tugs.LSG:liquefiedsyntheticgas.Energyefficienttechnologiesincludeairlubrication,shaftpowergeneration,digitaltechnologies,windtechnologiesandimprovedhullcoatings.FutureTechnologiesincludeonboardcarboncaptureandstorage,co-feedinghydrogencombinedwithdual-fuelLNGengines,fuelcellformainengine.

Shellplc February2024 12

LNGdecarbonisationpathwaysneedtobeexploredtogetherToaddressemissionstodayandprogresszeroemissionoptions

Carbon

compensated

LNG

BioLNG

Technologies

andefficiencies

Liquefied

syntheticgas

(LSG)

Carboncapture

andstorage

(CCS)

Feedstock

Anaerobic

Liquefaction

digester

Manure

Foodand

Agricultural

Biogasupgraded

andslurry

amenitywaste

waste

Biogas

BioLNG

tobiomethane

H2O

CO2

Storedand

Surplus

CO2from

exportedasliquefied

syntheticgas

electricity

DirectAirCapture,

BioCO2

circularCO2and,

from

renewable

intheinterim,

CH4

energy

pointsource

industrialCO2

Renewableenergy

Electrolysis

Methanation

to

100%

Up

emissions

compensated

to

100%

Up

emissions

reduced

~10%

emissions

reduced

to

90-95%

Up

emissions

reduced

~80%+

CO2removal

Carboncreditscan

beusedto

compensateforCO2e

lifecycleemissionsof

LNGcargoes

Dependinguponpercentageofbioblending

Forexample,usingrenewableelectricityinliquefactionprocessescanhelpreduceemissionsby8%

Whenproducedfromrenewableelectricity&usingbio-CO2

CO2emissionsremovalwithCCS

inLNGliquefaction

Source:ShellinterpretationofUKDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)GHGconversationfactors2022,JECWell-to-Tankreportv5,WoodMackenzieannouncement

Shellplc February2024 13

Acommongoal:reducingmethaneemissionsto‘nearzero’

Drivenbygovernment,institutionsandpolicy

156countriesnowpart

Drivenbyindustry Drivenbycustomers

ofGlobalMethanePledge,covering

86%ofLNGimportingcountries*

AgreementofEU,Japan,

SouthKorea,USAandAustralia

toharmonisedMRV

Groundbreakingmethaneregulationforoilandgas,includingimportsofgasandLNGintotheEU

$255mlnmobilised

forWorldBankmethaneandflaring

fund

Source:Oil&GasMethanePartnership(OGMP),publicannouncements,MethaneIntelligence(MiQ)announcements,*includingEU;**AnnouncementbyDaphneTechnologies(SlipPure)

Shellplc

Over80%

ofLNGflowscoveredbymorethan

120companiesand

70countries

havejoinedOGMP2.0

Labtestsofnewshippingtechnology

showsmethanereducedto

lowlevels**

Reduction

CH4

52signatories

tooilandgasdecarbonisation

charterlaunchedatCOP28

FirstGIIGNL’sMRVandGHG

NeutralalignedcargodeliveredinTaiwan

Increasingcustomer

leddemandfortransparencyandthird-partyverification

February2024

14

Gaspricesmorestablein2023

butvolatilitylingeredintight2market

Shellplc

Despitestructuraltightnesspricesmoderatedin2023JKMpricesfellbutremainedabovehistoricalnorms

Globalgastradechange(2019vs2023)

BCM

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

Pipelineexports*

LNGexports

2023demandfactors

Mildwintertemperatures

Highgas&LNGinventoriesinEurope&Asia

StrongnucleargenerationinFrance,Japan&SouthKorea

ModestChineseeconomicrecovery

WeakEuropeandemand

&energysavings

AveragemonthlyJKMprices

$/MMBtu

60

40

20

0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2016-2020range

2021

2022

2023

Source:ShellinterpretationofIntercontinentalExchange(ICE)andWoodMackenziedata

JKM:JapanKoreaMarker

*PipelineexportsexcludeNorthAmericapipelinetrade

Shellplc February2024 16

SupplysecurityconcernssparkedperiodsofvolatilityGlobaleventsimpactedmarketevenwithrecord-highinventories

Europeangasinventories

DutchTTFtradedvolumevsprice

%full

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1 2 3

Event-driven

volatility

Prolonged

1 Norwegian

maintenance

Australianindustrialactionconcern

Israel-Hamasconflict

MW

EUR/MWh

600.000

1

80

2

500.000

3

70

60

400.000

50

300.000

40

200.000

30

20

100.000

10

0

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2018-2022range 2022 2023 Maxcapacity

Source:ShellinterpretationofCommodityEssentialsandICEdata

EuropeincludesUK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlands,Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,CzechRepublicandSwitzerlandTTF:TitleTransferFacility

Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23

Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23

Tradedvolume

Frontmonthprice

Shellplc February2024 17

USAbecamethelargestLNGexporter

PanamaCanalconstraintsshiftedtradepatterns

Topexportersin2023

MT

100

80

60

40

20

0

USA

Australia

Qatar

Russia

Malaysia

USA

Australia

Qatar

Russia

Malaysia

Source:ShellinterpretationofKplerdata

*Others:CapeofGoodHope

USexportstoAsia

MT

4

3

2

1

0

jan-23

feb-23

mrt-23

apr-23

mei-23

jun-23

jul-23

aug-23

sep-23

okt-23

nov-23

dec-23

PanamaCanal

SuezCanal

Others*

Shellplc February2024 18

NewinfrastructurehelpsredistributeEuropeanLNGimportsChinaretooktopimporterspot,emergingAsiashowsgrowthpotential

ChangeinLNGimports2023(YoY)

TotalLNGtrade:404MT

MT

10

7,9

5

4,6

4,1

2,9

2,0

1,7

1,3

1,1

0,8

0,7

0,7

0,6

0,4

0,4

0,4

0

-0,5

-0,6

-0,6

-0,7

-1,1

-1,7

-5

-2,8

-3,5

-4,3

-6,0

-10

MainlandChina

Germany

Netherlands

Thailand

India

Italy

Singapore

Finland

Bangladesh

PuertoRico

Colombia

Philippines

Jamaica

Belgium

HongKong

Malaysia

Turkey

Greece

Portugal

Brazil

SouthKorea

Spain

France

UnitedKingdom

Japan

Europeancountrywithexistingregasificationfacility

Europeancountrywithnewregasificationfacility

Others

Source:ShellinterpretationofKplerdata

Shellplc February2024 19

Europeangasdemandfellin2023

Demanddestructioncontinuedduetolowersuppliesandelevatedp