IRENA-能源转型的地缘政治：能源安全（英）

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ISBN:978-92-9260-599-5

CITATION:IRENA(2024),Geopoliticsoftheenergytransition:Energysecurity,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

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ABOUTIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture.Itservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

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GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransitionENERGYSECURITY

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ThisreportwasdevelopedunderthesupervisionofElizabethPress(Director,IRENAPlanningandProgrammeSupport),whoco-authoredthereportwithYanaPopkostovaandThijsVandeGraaf(IRENAconsultants)withsubstantivesupportfromEllipseRathandGeraldTagoe.

Theauthorsaregratefulforthereviews,inputsandsupportprovidedbyIRENAcolleaguesRolandRoesch,MichaelTaylor,FranciscoBoshell,RicardoGorini,PaulKomor,ImenGherboudj,AdrianGonzalez,SibghatUllah,FrancisField,KathleenDaniel,StephanieClarke,AnastasiaKefalidou,CeliaGarcía-Baños,JaidevDhavleandHannahSofiaGuinto.

InternalpeerreviewwasprovidedbyCarolineOchieng,EmanueleBianco,KarstenSach(IRENAconsultant),MichaelRenner,MirjamReiner,RaulAlfaroPelico,SafiatouAlzoumaandStefanoMarguccio.ExternalpeerreviewwasprovidedbyAndrasRozmer(EEAS),AnnabelleLivet(FoundationforStrategicResearch),BenjaminGibson(Ørsted),DanielScholten(UniversityofMinnesota),HansOlavIbrekk(NorwegianMinistryofForeignAffairs,SectionforEnergy,ClimateandEnvironment),HolgerKlitzing(FederalForeignOffice,Germany),IndraOverland(NUPI),IrinaPatrahau(HCSS),LigiaNoronha(UNEP),OlgaKhakova(TheAtlanticCouncil),PaulaKivimaa(FinnishEnvironmentInstitute[SYKE],PiyushVerma(UNDP),RuudKempener(EuropeanCommission)andSaitoKazuhiko(MinistryofForeignAffairs,Japan).

ThereportwaseditedbyStevenKennedy.Designwasprovidedbyweeks.deWerbeagenturGmbH.

3

(U)HVDC(ultra)highvoltagedirectcurrent

UNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme

UF6uraniumhexafluoride

USUnitedStates

USDUnitedStatesdollars

WETOWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook

WIPOWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization

GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition

ABBREVIATIONS

ACC

COP

CRM

EJ

ESG

EU

EVs

FAO

GDP

GW

H2

IAEA

IEA

IPCC

IPRs

IRENA

LFP

NATO

NMC

OECD

PV

SDG

TFEC

TW

TWh

aircooledcondenser

ConferenceoftheParties

criticalrawmaterials

exajoule

environmental,socialandgovernance

EuropeanUnion

electricvehicles

FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations

grossdomesticproduct

gigawatt

hydrogen

InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency

InternationalEnergyAgency

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange

intellectualpropertyrights

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

lithium-ironphosphate

NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization

nickel-manganese-cobalt

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

photovoltaic

SustainableDevelopmentGoals

totalfinalenergyconsumption

terawatt

terawatt-hour

©PhilipLange;shutterstock

4

ENERGYSECURITY

FOREWORD

Theessentialroleofrenewablesincreatingmoreresilient,inclusiveandcleanerenergysystemsisundisputed.COP28underscoredthiswithapledgetotriplerenewablecapacityanddoubleenergyefficiencyby2030,whiletransitioningawayfromfossilfuels.Thispathway,adoptedfromIRENA’sWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook,representsouronlyoptiontocourse-correctwithinthenextsixyearstostayonthe1.5°Cpathway.

Theaccelerationofarenewable-basedtransitionreliesonourcollectiveabilitytoprioritiseactionsaroundkeyenablerssuchasthemodernisationandexpansionofinfrastructure,policyandmarketadaptation,andinstitutionalandhumancapacities.Alltheseareasarestronglylinkedtoenergysecurity,whichisstillpredominantlyviewedthroughthelensofafossilfuel-dominatederaanditsgeopoliticallandscape.Giventheriseofrenewables,IRENA’smembershaverequestedanexplorationoftheimplicationsofthisshiftforenergysecurity.

ThisreportbuildsonIRENA'sgeopoliticsoftheenergytransitionseries,andleveragesextensiveIRENAknowledgeofawiderangeoftechnical,socio-economicandclimateissues.

Thereportadvisesthatpolicymakersshouldnotmerelytransposethinkingfromthefossilfueleratoarenewables-basedsystem.Itidentifiesmultipleissuesthatshouldbesystematicallyconsideredtoguidenationaldecisionmakingonresourceendowmentsandcomparativeadvantages.Thisisparticularlycrucialasgovernmentsmakesignificantinvestmentsininfrastructureforsystemsthatareincreasinglyelectrified,digitalisedanddecentralised.Thereportplacesthewellbeingofpeopleandtheplanetatthecentreoftheevolvingenergysecuritynarrative.Ultimately,itrecognisesthataddressingenergysecurityisasmuchapoliticalendeavourasitisatechnicalone.

ThisreportwasdevelopedundertheCollaborativeFrameworkontheGeopoliticsofEnergyTransformation.IwouldliketoextendmygratitudetotheIRENAmembershipfortheirsupportofthisworkandtothemanyexpertsfromacademia,thinktanks,internationalorganisationsandtheprivatesectorwhoprovidedinsightfulinputandfeedbackonthisreport.Itismyhopethatthisnewanalysiswillsparkaninformedandconstructivedialogueontheevolvingnatureofenergysecurityintheeraofrenewables.

FrancescoLaCamera

Director-General,IRENA

5

6

GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition

TABLEOF

CONTENTS

Acknowledgements 03

Abbreviations 04

Foreword 05

SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERS............10

References..................................77

©ChristopherAmes;iStock

7

ENERGYSECURITY

CHAPTER1

ANEWERAFORENERGYSECURITY 17

1.1Theglobalshiftsaffectingenergysecurity 19

1.2Rethinkingenergysecurity 21

1

CHAPTER2

TRADE,SECURITYAND

INTERDEPENDENCE 27

2.1Theenergysecurityrisksofrenewablesvs.fossilfuels 29

2.2Energyrelationsinanet-zeroworld:Moreregional,lessglobal 32

2.3Residualfossilandnucleardependencies 36

2.4Thegeopoliticsofelectricitytradeandcross-bordergrids 39

2.5Thegeopoliticsoftradeinhydrogenandderivatives 43

2.6Thegeopoliticsoftradeincriticalmaterials 47

2.7Thegeopoliticsoftradeincleanenergytechnologies 50

2

CHAPTER3

AMULTI-DIMENSIONAL

APPROACHTOENERGYSECURITY 53

3.1.Accesstotechnology 55

3.2.Flexibilityforelectricitysystemshighinrenewables 58

3.3.Thedemandsideofenergysecurity 62

3.4.Hardsecuritythreatstoinfrastructure 64

3.5.Cybersecurity 64

3.6.Physicaleffectsofclimatechange 67

3.7.Humansecurity 71

3

POLICYCONSIDERATIONS..................74

8

GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition

LISTOFFIGURES

FIGURES.1TotalfinalenergyconsumptionbyenergycarrierunderIRENA's1.5°Cscenario,

2020and2050 10

FIGURES.2Shareofcountriesandglobalpopulationdependentonnetimportsoffossilfuels 11

FIGURES.3Techno-economicpotentialofgeothermal,hydro,solarandwind 13

FIGURES.4Amulti-dimensionalapproachtoenergysecurity 14

FIGURE

1.1

TotalfinalenergyconsumptionbyenergycarrieraccordingtoIRENA's1.5°Cscenario,

2020and2050 18

FIGURE

1.2

Renewablepowercapacitybyregion,2023.........................................21

FIGURE

1.3

Traditionalapproachtoenergysecurity.............................................23

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

FIGURE

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.10

2.11

2.12

2.13

2.14

2.15

2.16

Shareofcountriesandglobalpopulationdependentonnetimportsoffossilfuels

29

Techno-economicalpotentialofgeothermal,hydro,solarandwind

32

Suitableareaforutilityscalesolar

33

Suitableareaforwind

33

Globalshippingiscloselyintertwinedwithfossilfuels

34

Recentdisruptionsofnaturalgassupply

36

Geographicconcentrationinthenuclearfuelcycle(percentoftheglobaltotal)

37

Netelectricityimports(2022)

39

Existingelectricityinterconnectors(asof1February2024)

40

Plannedelectricityinterconnectors(asof1February2024)

41

Subseainterconnections(asof1February2024)

42

Hydrogenpipelines,storageandports(existingandplanned,asofOctober,2023)

44

Thegeopoliticsofhydrogenandfossilfuelsarefundamentallydifferent

45

Expertviewsonhydrogenenergysecurityrisks

46

Criticalmaterialsarefundamentallydifferentfromfossilfuels

48

Distributionofhumanresourcesrequiredalongthevaluechainforthe

developmentofa50MWsolarPVplant,byactivity 51

9

ENERGYSECURITY

FIGURE3.1Amulti-dimensionalapproachtoenergysecurity 54

FIGURE3.2Disparitiesingrowthofrenewablecapacity,byselectedcountrygroups,2023 55

FIGURE3.3Topcountriesfilingpatents,bytechnology,2023 56

FIGURE3.4Internationalfinancialflowstodevelopingcountriesinsupportofcleanand

renewableenergy(USDmillion,2020PPP),2021 57

FIGURE3.5Enablersofpowersystemflexibilityintheenergysector 59

FIGURE3.6Benefitsandcostsofinterconnectionsandregionalmarketsasflexibilityproviders 61

FIGURE3.7Majorcyberattacksontheenergyindustry,2023 65

FIGURE3.8Energysectorcompaniesatriskofsuccessfulcyberattacks(%ofcompanies),

byindustry,May2023 67

FIGURE3.9Exposureofelectricitygenerationassets,T&Dnetworkandfossilfuelsupplychains

toclimate-relatedrisks 69

FIGURE3.10Climateimpactmap 70

FIGURE3.11EnergyandtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals 71

FIGURE3.12Entrypointsforrenewableenergyatdifferentstagesoftheagri-foodchain 73

LISTOFBOXES

BOX2.1Comparingenergysecurityrisksforfossilfuelsandrenewables 30

BOX2.2Energysecurityandthenuclearfuelcycle 37

BOX2.3Disruptiveinnovation 49

©CrovikMedia;shutterstock

GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition

SUMMARYFOR

POLICYMAKERS

Transitioningfromfossilfuelstorenewableenergyyieldsmoreelectrified,decentralisedanddigitalisedenergysystems.Systemsbasedonrenewableenergy,includinggreenhydrogenandsustainablebiomass,lendthemselvestohighratesofelectrificationandefficiency.AccordingtoIRENA's1.5°Cscenario,electricityisprojectedtobecometheprimaryenergycarrierinthefuture,withitssharemorethandoublingfrom22%todayto51%by2050(FigureS.1).By2050,bothbiomassandhydrogenareexpectedtoconstitutelargerportionsofthetotalenergyconsumptionthanfossilfuels.

FIGURES.1TotalfinalenergyconsumptionbyenergycarrierunderIRENA's1.5°Cscenario,2020and2050

2050

2020

(1.5°CScenario)

11%

16%

Biomass

Biomass

12%

Fossilfuels

63%

Fossilfuels

22%51%

374EJ

353EJ

Electricity

(direct)

7%

Other

4%

Other

14%

Hydrogen(94%green)

91%

28%

Source:(IRENA,2023).

Note:EJ=exajoules.

Renewableshareinelectricity

10

11

©janiecbros;iStock

countriesarenetcoal importers

ENERGYSECURITY

Theshareofrenewableenergyintheglobalenergymixwouldincreasefrom16%in2020to77%by2050inIRENA’s1.5°Cscenario.Totalprimaryenergysupplywouldremainstableduetoincreasedenergyefficiencyandgrowthofrenewables.Useofrenewableswouldincreaseacrossallend-usesectors,whileahighrateofelectrificationinsectorssuchastransportandbuildingswouldrequireatwelve-foldincreaseinrenewableelectricitycapacityby2050,comparedto2020levels.

Triplingrenewablesanddoublingefficiencyby2030formthecentralpillarofthedecarbonisationstrategy,alsoaffirmedatCOP28inDecember2023.IRENAestimatesthatanadditional11terawatts(TW)ofrenewablepowercapacitywillberequiredtocutemissionsby43%by2030inlinewiththerecommendationsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Themostviableapproachwithinthistimelineinvolvesaggressivelydeployingrenewableandefficiencytechnologies,reducingrelianceonfossilfuels,andinnovatingforactionbeyond2030.

Everycountryhassomeformofrenewablepotentialitcanharness,therebyenhancingitsenergyresilience,independenceandcontrol,andreducingexposuretovolatilefossilfuelprices.In2022,86%oftheglobalpopulationlivedincountriesthatwerenetimportersoffossilfuels.Theshifttorenewablesfromlocalsourceswillboostself-sufficiency,shiftingenergydependenciesfromtheglobaltotheregionallevelandmakingmostcountrieslesssusceptibletogeopoliticaldisruptions.Byconventionalstandardsofenergysecurity,thispromisesenhancedstabilityandresilience,whileimprovingbalanceofpaymentand

macroeconomicbenefits.

FIGURES.2Shareofcountriesandglobalpopulationdependentonnetimportsoffossilfuels

116

countriesarenetoil importers

112

countriesarenetgas importers

Worldpopulation

8.1

billion

86%

oftheworld

population

livesinnet

importing

countries

Source:(UNComtradeDatabase,2022).

12

GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition

Transitioningawayfromfossilfuelsissettoalterglobaltrade,leadingtoasubstantialregionalisationofenergytrade.Approximately40%ofmaritimecargotodayismadeupoffossilfuels,andshippingheavilyreliesonthesefuels.Transitioningawayfromoil,gasandcoalwillreducelong-distancetradeinenergy.Electrificationwillpromotecross-bordertradeandcleanenergycommoditiessuchasgreenhydrogenwillnotbetradedinvolumescomparabletofossilfuels,oroversuchgreatdistances.Goingforward,globaltradeincleanenergy-relatedtechnologiesorsemi-finishedproductsisexpectedtodiversifyandintensify.

Newtradeflowsinelectricity,hydrogen,materialsandcleantechnologieswillemerge,differingsignificantlyfromtraditionalfossilfueldependencies.Disruptionsinmostoftheseareaswouldnotimmediatelyaffectend-users’energysecurity.Interruptionsinelectricity,however,wouldbeinstantaneous,changingthenatureofenergysecuritypolicywherecross-bordertradeisintroducedorexpandedcomparedtofossilfuels.

Cross-bordertradeinelectricityfostersmutualbenefits,contrastingtheasymmetricdependenciesseeninoilandgas.Giventhattheelectricitytrademayflowinbothdirections,itshouldbeviewedthroughthelensofinterdependencyandmutualbenefits.ThisisevidentinthelargelyintegratedEUelectricitymarket,whereall27memberstates,includingnetexporters,benefitfromimports.In2023,noneoftheEUmembercountrieswereexportersallofthetime.Theinterconnectorsthatfacilitatethistradecanthusbeconsideredchannelsforgreaterintegrationandco-operation,butsuchaviewimpliesconsiderablepoliticaltrust.

Thereisaneedforareassessmentofwhatconstitutesastrategicsovereignasset.Withtheriseinelectrification,interconnectorsandelectricalgridsbecomevitalforenergysecurity.Thesamecanbesaidforemerginggreenenergycarriersandlocationsforseasonalstorage.Theoperationandsafetyoftheseassetswillplayapivotalroleinhowenergyistradedandsecuredacrossborders.Thisshiftrequirespolicymakerstoreviewtheownershipandsecurityofenergyinfrastructure,aswellasaccesstoandcontrolofthatinfrastructure.

Greenhydrogenandproductsderivedfromitcouldplayanimportantroleinenergysecurity.

Producinghydrogenfromlocalrenewablesourcescanreducerelianceonimportedfossilfuels,particularlyinindustryandsectorsdifficulttodecarbonise.Thereisstillalotofuncertaintyregardingtheextenttowhichhydrogenwillbetradedinlargequantitiesacrossbordersorifindustrialactivitieswillshifttorenewable-richareas.Inbothcases,tradeflowswillensue,whichwouldbenefitfromeffortstodiversifysuppliersandsupplyroutesaswellaseffortstoboostresiliencesuchasthroughstorageandcontingencyplanning.

Criticalmaterials,askeyinputstoenergytechnologymanufacturing,requireattentionintheshorttomediumtermduetothehighconcentrationoftheirsupplychains.Diverseandresilientsupplychainsareessentialfortheenergytransitionandbothminingandprocessingvolumesandlocationsarealreadyexpanding.Innovationisalreadyrelievingthepressurescurrentlybeingfeltinmarketsand,fromthenextdecade,recyclingandcirculareconomywillplayagreaterrole.ContinuedsupportforR&Dtoimproveefficiency,findalternativesandshapeproductdesignwithcircularityinmindcanreducelong-termvulnerabilitiesandrisks.

13

ENERGYSECURITY

Nocountrymasterseveryaspectofcleantechnologies,soitisessentialtoconsidertheimpactofdomesticpolicieswithinabroaderwebofinterdependence.Arenewables-dominatedfuturewillseeenergysecurityfocusshifttotradeintechnologiesorsemi-finishedproducts.However,thepatternoftechnologydependencyinthatsystemwillbevastlydifferentfromwhatithasbeeninthefossilfuel-dependentworld.Forinstance,mostjobsinsolarPVare“downstream”,asmoreworkersinstallsolarpanelsthanbuildthem.Inthatcontext,tariffsandothertradeprotectionmeasuresmayhaveanadverseimpactofthreateninglocaljobs.

Whilerenewableresourcesremainlargelyunaffectedbygeopoliticalinterruptions,harnessingthemdependsonavailabilityoftechnologiesandfinanceatscale.Thiscanbechallengingformanydevelopingcountriesduetoalackofaccesstotechnologyandtheprohibitivelyhighcostofcapital.Therefore,facilitatingtechnologytransfersandensuringaccesstointellectualpropertyrights(IPR)isneededtoencouragewidespreaddeploymentofrenewablesandtopromoteequitabledevelopment.

Developingnationscanenhancetheresilienceofregionalandglobalenergymarketswhileimprovingtheirowneconomicandenergysecurity,ifaccesstotechnologyandfinanceisprovidedtothem.

Doingsonotonlyfostersdomesticgrowthbutcanpositionthesenationsascompetitiveplayersintheglobalcleantechnologymarket.Theirintegrationintotheglobalgreeneconomycanfavouramoreequitabledistributionofbenefitsandtechnologicaladvancementsandhelpinreducingdependencyonasmallnumberofcountries,thusmakingenergymarketsmoreresilient.

FIGURES.3Techno-economicpotentialofgeothermal,hydro,solarandwind

Potentialin

all4sectors

3sectors

2sectors

Technologysectors

1sector

Nodata

GeothermalHydroSolarWind

Nopotential

Source:(IRENA,2024a).

Notes:FigureisbasedonIRENAGlobalAtlasdatasets.Onlygeothermal,hydro,solarandwindsourcesareincluded.Dataforcalculatingthetechno-economicpotentialofbioenergyandmarinesourcesiscurrentlyunavailable.

Disclaimer:Thismapisprovidedforillustrationpurposesonly.BoundariesandnamesshownonthismapdonotimplyanyendorsementoracceptancebyIRENA.

14

high-renewable

electricitysystems

Demandside

ofenergysecurity

Infrastructuresafeguarding

Physicalefectsofclimatechange

Cybersecurity

Humansecurity

GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition

Energysecurityinrenewables-basedsystemsrequiresmulti-dimensionalthinking.Theenergytransitionrepresentsthecreationofanewenergysystem,notjustthesubstitutionofonesetoffuelsforanother.Reflexivelytransposingthegeopoliticalconsiderationsofthefossilfueleratotheeraofrenewableenergycouldleadtosignificantoversightsandill-consideredinvestments.Thesystemicnatureoftheongoingtransitionanditswide-rangingsocialandeconomicimpactswarrantholisticthinking.

Technology–notfuels–willplaythedominantroleinrenewables-dominatedsystems.Intheevolvingglobalenergylandscape,technologysupplychainswillbeexposedtogeopoliticaldisruptionsanduncertainties,theirexposuremagnifiedbythecomplexwebofconnections.Ensuringaccesstotechnologywillalsodependonenhancingsupplychainresilience.Giventheneedtodecarbonisetheglobaleconomyandthecriticalroleofenergyforindustrialisationanddevelopmentintheglobalsouth,resilienceisanindispensablepartofenergysecurityframeworks.

Inanelectricity-dominatedenergysystem,flexibilityisacriticalaspectofenergysecurity.Renewablepowerisincreasinglydominatedbysolarandwindpower,and,in2023alone,98%ofthenewcapacityaddedgloballyinvolvedoneofthesetechnologies.Astheshareoftheseandothervariablesourcesofenergygrows,flexibilitygrowsinimportancegivingtheabilityofpowersystemstorespondtochangesindemandandsupply.Flexibilityincreasinglydependsoninfrastructurethatisinterconnectedacrossborders,astateofaffairsthatimplicatesregulatoryframeworksandpoliticalrelations.

FIGURES.4Amulti-dimensionalapproachtoenergysecurity

for

Flexibility

Accessto

technology

Amulti-

dimensional

approach

toenergy

security

15

ENERGYSECURITY

©show999;iStock…

Energydemand,oftenoverlookedindiscussionsofenergysecurity,gainsparamountimportanceinanewworldofinterconnectedsystems.Rapidlygrowingdemand,particularlyinAfricaandAsia,alsohasgeopoliticalimplicationsthatmakethemselvesfeltinglobalenergymarkets,tradepatternsandstrategicalliances.Addressingtheseconsiderationsiskeytoensuringaresponsiveandresilientenergyframework,oneadaptabletobothgradualshiftsandsuddenchanges.Inabroadersense,managingandmoderatingdemandgrowththroughenergyefficiencyanddemandresponsepoliciesandinvestmentscanmitigatecompetitionforenergyresourcesandmarketaccess.

Climatechangeimpactsandextremeweathereffectsmustbecomeanintegralpartofenergysecurityconsiderations,includinginfrastructure,tradeanddemandresponsemeasures.Essentialstepsincluderethinkingthelocationanddesignofenergyassetsandinfrastructuretoenhanceresilience,implementingrobustconstructionmethods,andformulatingcontingencyplansforextremeweatherevents.Enhancingearlywarningsystemsandemergencyresponsestrategiesarealsovitalfortemperingtheimpactofextremeweathereventsonenergysupplychains.Adaptationresponsesacrosssectorsshouldleveragerenewableenergytoprovidecost-efficient,integrated,andreliablesolutionsforclimateadaptationandenergysystemsresilience.

Traditionalthreatstoenergysystems,suchasphysicalattacksoninfrastructureanddisruptionsduetoconflictorstrategicmanipulation,remaincriticalconcernsforenergysecurity.However,thescopeofriskwillreducegeographically,aselectricityisdeliveredinrealtime,andconsumptionwillcontinuetobepredominantlydomestic.Conversely,theincreasingprevalenceofhybridthreatsthatcombinephysicalandcyberelementscreatesamulti-facetedrisklandscape.Cascadeeffectsthroughinterconnectedelectricitysystemscantriggerphysicaldisruptionsacrosscountries.Buildingresilienceagainstsuchmulti-facetedthreatsisastrategicnecessity.

Cybersecuritywillgrowinimportanceinelectrifiedanddigitalisedsystems.Asenergysystemsbecomeevenmorecomplexanddigital