UNDP-国家数字化转型的投资回报率：探索数字化对发展的影响（英）

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©UNDPPeru/JasminRamírezRomero

UNDPGlobalPolicyNetworkBrief

UNITEDNATIONSDEVELOPMENTPROGRAMME

DEVELOPMENT

FUTURESSERIES

March2024

Return-on-InvestmentinNationalDigitalTransformation:

ExploringtheDevelopmentImpactofDigital

byVitaliiZakhozhyiandCalumHandforth1

Digitaltransformationisoftenmeasuredinthecontextofsystemsand

subscribers—forexample,increasesin4Gmobilecoverage,numbersofactive

usersandthevalueoffinancialinvestmentinhardwareandsoftware.Thisresultsindigitalbeingseensolelythroughthelensofsolutionsandnotoutcomes.

Thisbriefhighlightstheimportanceofbroadeningourmeasurementofdigital

transformation:‘return-on-investmentindigitaltransformation’(RoI-DT)aimsto

positiondigitalapproachesaskeytoachievingdevelopmentoutcomes.This

includestheroleofdigitalinreducingpoverty,improvingequalityandprotectingtheplanet.Bybroadeningthedefinitionofimpactandreturn-on-investment,the

developmentcommunitycanbetterintegratedigitalasakeyhumandevelopmentenabler—andonethatshouldnolongerbesolelytheresponsibilityofdigital,

technicalorITteamsandexperts.

Digitaltransformationisincreasinglybeingseenasanimportantdriver2forhumandevelopment.3–4

SincetheCOVID-19pandemicforcedthe

acceleration,explorationandimplementationof

digitalaroundtheworld,manycountrieshave

proactivelyexploredtheroleandpotentialofdigitalfortheirnationalandlocaldevelopment.5Asthe

worldlockeddown,publicandprivateservices—

includingsocialprotectionpayments,education

andhealthcare—wentonline.Governmentswith

existingdigitalfoundationsandprocesses(includingdigitalidentityandpaymentcomponents)were

betterpositionedtoreachandsupporttheircitizensthancountrieswithouttheseassets.6

However,digitaltransformationisacomplexand

sometimescostlyjourneythatrequiressignificant

investmentinskills,cultureandtechnology.These

investmentscanalsotakemanyyearstodemonstrate

areturn-on-investment.Andthedirectionmaynot

alwaysbepositive.Digitaltechnologiescanintroduce

newrisksandexacerbateexistingharms,7including

mis-anddisinformation,cyberthreats,technology-

facilitatedviolenceandenvironmentalimpact.In

addition,someoutcomesofdigitalinvestment,whetherpositiveornegative,maybedifficulttodirectly

attribute.Todate,significantattentionhasbeengiven

tothefinancialoreconomicreturn-on-investment

ofdigital.Thereisaneedtobroadenthisdefinition,

particularlyrecognizingthecomplexity,ambiguityand

non-linearityofnationaldigitaltransformation.

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UNDPGlobalPolicyNetworkBrief

Whyweneedtomeasurereturn-on-investmentofdigitaltransformation

DEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIES

Althoughmeasuringtheimpactofnationaldigitaltransformationcanbecomplicated,8itisacrucial

componentofshapingawhole-of-societyapproachtodigitaltransformation.Therightmeasurementofthereturn-oninvestmentcouldenable:

■Moreeffectiveandbettertargeteddigital

interventions:understandingofwhatisandisn’tworking;ensuringthatnooneisleftbehindandthatdigitalhasanimpactwhereitisneeded

most—includingsupportingthosewhoareusuallyatriskofbeingexcluded.9

■Betterandevidence-baseddecision-making:equippingpolicymakersanddevelopment

professionalswithdataandpracticalinsightsthattheyneedforbroaderdevelopment

interventionstodriveandfurtherthedigitalagenda;makingintentional,well-scopedandbolddigitalinvestmentsforsignificanthumandevelopmentreturns.10

■Prioritizingwhatworks:ifresultsarewell

measuredandarticulated,11theseinsightsarecrucialforguidingadditionaleffortswithinandbeyondcountries.Thisincludestheroleofdataininformingthescalingofsuccessfulprojectsandinterventionsintoothercontextsand

countriesandforfuturedigitalinitiatives.12

■Crowding-inofadditionalsupportand

partnerships:demonstratingimpactcanbe

apowerfulmobilizerforattractingadditional

investment,buildingnewpartnershipsand

movingbeyondindividualtechnologiesandusecasestowardsawhole-of-societyapproachtodigitaltransformation.

Rigorousandconsideredmeasurementofthe

return-on-investmentofdigitaltransformationwouldenableabetterappreciationofthewide-ranging

andcatalyticpotentialofdigital.Itcouldallow

allstakeholderstohaveabetterpictureofthe

positiveandnegativemultipliereffectsofdigital

transformationandtoimprovetheirunderstandingoftheroleofdigitalindrivingdevelopmentefforts.Greaterunderstandingofthereturnsofdigital

investmentscouldshapeacompellingargument

forgovernmentswithmultiplecompetingprioritiesintheirnationalagendastoprioritizeandposition

digital.Thisimprovementcouldtranslateintokey

policyandinstitutionalcomponentsthatunderpin

sustainabledigitaldevelopment:theavailability

ofdigitalfunding,seniorpoliticalengagementwithdigital(creatingamandatefordigitaltransformation)

andacommitmenttoshapingawhole-of-

governmentandwhole-of-societyapproach.

Existingapproachestomeasuringeffectsofdigital

transformation

Identifyingreturn-on-investmentofdigital

transformationcanbechallengingasthereisno

singledefinitionofdigitaltransformationnorany

singlemethodologyorframework.Inaddition,

existingmethodsofexploringtheeffectsofdigitaltransformationareoftencountry-specific,focusedonparticularsectorsorthemes(suchashealth

orgender)andfragmented—rangingfromhigh-

levelconceptualapproachesandframeworksto

variouseconomicmodelsandindicesattemptingtohighlightorquantifydigitalimpact.

Whilequantifyingthenationaldigitaltransformationeffects,practitionersandresearchersoftenexplorecorrelationsbetweendigitaltransformationand

variousmicro-ormacro-economicindicatorssuchasgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).13,14Forexample,theGovernmentofEstonianotesthatdigitalizationofpublicservicessavesthecountrytheequivalent

ofmorethan2percentofitsGDPannually,

anddigitalservicedeliverysavesEstoniansthe

equivalentofmorethan1,300yearsofworking

timeeveryyearduetomoreefficientservice

delivery.15Additionalapproachesfocusontechnicalindicators,likethenumberofpeoplewithmobile

internetaccess,thenumberofpublicservices

digitizedandwhetherornotparticularlawshavebeenimplemented.Suchmetricsareimportant,buttheydonotengagewiththebroaderandlonger-termpotentialofdigital.

Otherapproaches9,16–17thataregettingsome

tractionbroadenthisdefinitionandsetoutamoresocial-focusedperspectiveofdigitaltransformationeffects,suchasenhancedhumanandsocial

capabilities,societalwell-beingandoutcomes,

includingtrust,usersatisfaction,participation18andeffectiveness—alongsidemoretraditionaleconomic

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UNDPGlobalPolicyNetworkBrief

metricsofimpact.Atanationallevel,some

countriesarealsoexploringthebroaderoutcomesofdigital—includingthe‘SmartNation’approachin

Singapore19andtheNationalDigitalTransformationAgendasinVietnam20andTrinidadandTobago.21

DEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIES

Developmentreturn-on-investmentfornationaldigital

transformation

TheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)wereadoptedbytheUnitedNationsin2015.Traditionaldevelopmentoutcomesareincreasinglyframed

inthecontextofthe17SDGsandtheirtargetsandindicators.SignificantresearchhasexploredhowdigitaltransformationprocessesandtechnologiescanaccelerateattainmentoftheSDGs.22–23

However,fewcountrieshaveadoptedanSDG-ledapproachtoanalyseandassessthereturn-on-

investmentofdigitalefforts.Recognizingthisgap,thisbriefhighlightstheneedforanewframeworkformeasuringtheeconomic,social,environmental,culturalandbroaderhumandevelopmentvalue

ofdigitaltransformation:return-on-investmentin

digitaltransformation(RoI-DT).24RoI-DTusesthe

2030Agendapreambleframingofpeople,planet,prosperity,peaceandpartnershipstoidentify

potentialmeasurementopportunitiesforunpackingandillustratingthedevelopmentpowerofdigital.25

People

Theimpactinthisdomainoftenfocuseson

efficiencyorproductivity,suchastimesavedin

digitizingprocessestodeliversocialprotection

paymentsorimprovementsinfarmyieldenabled

bydigitaltoolsandtechnologies.However,broaderRoI-DToutcomesareimportantinrecognizinga

widerreturn-on-investmentofdigital.Forexample:

■Socialinclusionandhumanrights

improvements:howdigitaltoolsandchannelscanleadtoanincreaseincitizenengagementbyprovidingavoiceandplatformtomore

marginalizedgroupsoradecreaseinhumanrightsviolations.

■Themultipliereffectofdigital:howdigital

skillscanspreadthroughoutsociety26—andhowdigitalcanshapea‘multipliereffect’,includingamplifyingtheworkofbusinesses.

■Increasedhouseholdincomesecurity:beyondfinancialmetrics,includinghowdigitalcan

provideopportunitiesforwomentoparticipateinthedigitaleconomy.

However,measuringthesewidermetricscanbedifficult.Thesecond-andthird-ordereffectsofdigitalcanbehardtoidentifyandharderto

attribute.Theycanrequirelonger-termandmorequalitativeresearch.Similarly,thenegativeeffectsofdigital,forexample,thelong-termeffectsof

harassmentandotheronlineabuse,alsoneedtobeexplored.Strengtheningexistingmeasurementapproachescouldalsoprovidegreatervalue,forexample,measuringcitizensatisfactioninrelationtodigitalpublicservicedeliveryandthenexploringhowthetimesavedduetodigitalizationisutilized.

Thiswiderapproachisbeingexploredin

Bangladesh,wherethegovernmenthasbeen

implementingitsnationalstrategy,Digital

Bangladesh,since2008.Itsflagshipprogramme,

AccesstoInformation(A2I),includesananaloguefocus.Inparticular,A2Iprovidesaccesstodigital

publicservicesviaanetworkofmorethan8,858

physicaldigitalcentres.27AnumberofA2IInitiativeshavesavedBangladeshicitizenstheequivalent

of12.7billionphysicalvisitstogovernmentoffices,US$21.6billionincostsand17billionworkdays

amongcitizens.28

Planet

Thecorefocusofthe2030Agendaissustainabilitysothattheplanetcansupporttheneedsofpresentandfuturegenerations.Digitalplaysaconsiderableroleinthisarea,andtheimpactcanoftenbeveryspecific,includingafocusonresourceoptimization.Whenexploringabroadermeasurementapproach,sampleRoI-DToutcomescouldinclude:

■Betterpreparedness,resilienceandfaster,moreefficientresponse:improvingthequalityandtimelinessofresponsetoclimaticevents,strengtheningearlywarningsystemsand

buildingcommunityengagement.

■Reductionsinemissionsduetodigital

interventions,includingthroughbetter-

optimizedprocessesandbyleveragingdigital

toolsandchannelstoreducetheneedfortravel.

Aparticularchallengeinthiscontextistheveryrealandnegativeimpactthatdigitalitselfcanhaveontheplanet,fromwaterandotherresourceusageofcloudtechnologies(andtheemissionscreatedbythisinfrastructure)toincreasesine-waste.Efforts

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UNDPGlobalPolicyNetworkBriefDEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIES

financialreturnsoverbroadersocialorsocietal

returns.Thisincludesafocusontechnological

solutionsandnottheneeds,realitiesorunderlyingcontext—orproblem—athand.

tomeasurethecarbonfootprintoftechnologiesor

broaderdigitaltransformationshouldbeprioritized.

Thisincludestheindividualimpactoftechnologies

(suchastrainingmachine-learningandAImodels29)

andtheenvironmentalimpactofdigitalvalue-

Incontrast,theGovernmentofMalawi’sefforts

tobuildanationaldigitalIDsystemhavehad

significantandpositiveeffects,includingthose

thatgobeyondfinancialbenefits.Withalmost100percentoftheeligiblepopulationnowrecorded

intheNationalRegister,35thecountryhasseen

improvedcasemanagementinitsjusticesystem,moreeffectivedistributionofvaccinesanda

reductioninfraudcasesreportedtothepolice36

andhassaved$7millioninvoterregistrationcostsduring2019elections.Onthefinancialside,this

workhasalsoledtoimprovedtaxinformation,

ensuredmoreeffectivesocialbenefitsdistributionandhelpedcontrolbenefitleakagesduetoits

linkagewiththenationalsocialbenefitsregistry.Thishasincludedsavingsofover$20millioninannualpaymentsto‘ghost’beneficiarieswho

shouldnolongerbereceivingsuchsupport.18

Peace

chainsfromcodingtoclouddeployment.30These

issuesreaffirmtheroleofaRoI-DTapproach:

engagingwithandmeasuringthebroaderimpactof

digital,bothgoodandbad.

ThisapproachisbeingtestedinUruguay,where

thecountry’s670kmcoastlineishometo70

percentofitspopulation.31Thesecoastalareasand

thepeoplewholivetherearehighlyvulnerableto

sealevelriseandextremenatureevents.Therefore,

byanalysinghistoricalandprojectedclimatedata,

climatemodellingandvulnerabilityassessment

technologyhavebeendeveloped32todetermine

thethreatofclimatevariabilitytoUruguay’scoastal

zones.Thesuccessfuluptakeoftheclimate

modellingtechnologyhasenabledUruguaytonot

onlydevelopitsCOASTAL-NationalAdaptation

Plan(NAP)33butalsoenhanceitscapacityand

securefundingforitsimplementation.Italsoserves

asapilotthatcanbereplicatedinothercountriesin

theregion.

Digitalplaysanincreasinglyimportantrolein

catalyzingpeaceandadvancingcollectiveactionanddialoguearoundtheworld.Itcanpromote

moreinclusivedecision-makingandpolitical

participationaswellasimprovetransparencyandaccountability.SomeRoI-DToutcomesthatwouldbeimportanttoconsiderare:

■Country’sresilienceinthefaceofhuman-

madeconflictsandcrisis:usingdigitalto

keepacountryoperationalandensurecitizensreceiveallnecessarypublicservicesduringacrisis.

■Citizenparticipationinpoliticalandsocial

life;socialandpoliticalinclusion:providing

aplatformandanopportunitytoraiseavoice,

shareanopinionandengageinpublicdiscourse.

■Governanceefficiency,transparency,

accountabilityandanticorruptioneffects:

usingdigitaltomakedecision-making

processesmoreinformed,effective,efficientandtransparent.

However,digitalalsorisksunderminingefforts

toshapesafeandsecuresocieties.Digitaltoolsandchannelscanspreadmis-anddisinformationatanunprecedentedpaceandscale,leadingtoradicalizationandentrenchingmarginalization.Digitalcanalsostrengthensurveillanceand

censorshipefforts,whileonlineharmscanalsotranscendthedigitalworld.

Prosperity

Manyconsiderationsof‘prosperity’centreon

financialoreconomicreturns.Forexample,

improvedefficiencyleadstogreaterworkoutputs

andgreaterincome.However,thereisaneedto

recognizehowdigitalcanleadtoprosperityacross

countriesandcommunities,particularlyformore

marginalizedgroups.Exampleoutcomescouldbe:

■Improvedprocurementprocesses:using

digitalstandardstoshapemoretransparentgovernmentprocurementprocesses,leadingtobetterproductsandservicesforcitizens

andtheinclusionofmicro,small,andmediumenterprisesinprovidingthesesolutions.

■Improvementsingenderequality:as

highlightedbytheAllianceforAffordable

Internet,30-pluslower-incomecountrieshavemissedouton$1trillioninGDPasaresultof

women’sexclusionfromdigital.Closingthis

digitalgendergapwoulddeliver“anestimatedUS$524billionincreaseineconomicactivityby2025”tothesecountries.34

Atthesametime,digitalcancomplicatematters,

withexacerbatinginequality,joblosses,reduced

salariesandmoreprecariouscontracts—all

potentialresultsofautomationandotherdigital

processes.Also,relatedaspects,suchasthe

functioningofthedigitalsector,canprioritize

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UNDPGlobalPolicyNetworkBriefDEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIES

throughmoreinformedandefficientdecision-makinganddata-drivenapproachesto

assessmentofresourcesanduse.

■Ecosystemimpact:includingshapingnew

waysofworking,newindustriesandsectorsand

Ukrainehaspositioneddigitalasakeypillarinits

approachtoresilienceandinpursuitofpeace.The

developingpositivemultipliereffects.

However,attributingthoseeffectstospecific

investmentsindigitalcanbeachallengingtask.

Andtheincreaseinactorscanalsoleadtonegativeoutcomes,suchasdataandotherprivacybreachescausedbyweakorineffectivedigitalinfrastructureamongorganizations.

Partnershipscanalsoleadtoconsiderablefinancialreturns.DuringtheCOVID-19pandemic,thecentralhealthlaboratoryinMauritiuswasinurgentneed

ofalaboratorymanagementinformationsystem

toprocessvirustests.Throughleveragingand

adaptinganexistingopen-sourcesolution,the

team—incollaborationwiththedevelopersof

thesolution—wasabletosaveover$4millionby

notbuildingfromscratch.Thiscollaborationalso

providedavaluableopportunityforinstitutionalizingkeydigitalskillswithinMauritius.40

country’sDiiaplatform,adigitalserviceecosystemand

acornerstoneofUkrainiandigitaltransformation,isa

lifelineforitscitizens.Sixty-threepercentofUkrainians

haveusedatleastonedigitalpublicservice,37andthe

countryisshapingnewservicesinresponsetoconflict.

Thisincludesservicestorecordwar-relateddamage,38

registerforfinancialreimbursementandapplyfor

recognitionasaninternallydisplacedperson.39

Partnerships

UNDP’swhole-of-societyapproachtodigital

transformationdemandstheengagementofall

sectors,includingthepublicandprivatesectorsand

civilsociety.Potentialoutcomesinthisdomaincan

include:

■Increasedtrust,betterdialogueandalignmentthroughbettertransparencyandaccountabilityandnewandmoreeffectivemeansofworkingtogether.

■Resourceoptimizationandatime-saving

effectfromcollectiveactionandpartnerships:

Reflectionsandrecommendations

Digitalhasenormouspotentialfordevelopment,butonlyifitswide-rangingpoweranditspossible

risksarerecognized.Itcanimproveinclusion,

sustainability,equality,participationand

partnership.Thesefunctionscantranslateinto

financial,social,economicandotherbenefitsforcountriesandsocieties.Toachieveandmeasurethesebenefits,thereisaneedto:

■Explore,unpackandquantifythe

developmentoutcomesofdigital,usingtheSDGsasastartingpoint.Whenexploring

thereturn-on-investmentinnationaldigital

transformation,itisimportanttomovebeyondasingularfocusonfinancialreturns.Analysingtheimpactofdigitalthroughthelensof

developmentoutcomesandtheSDGscouldhighlighttheroleofdigitalforcountries—andensurethatitispositionedatthecentreof

developmentstrategies.Furtherresearchandanalysisareneededinthisarea.

■Analysetheextenttowhichkeygroupsareimpactedbydigitaltransformation.Toensurethatdigitaltransformationbenefitseveryone,itiscrucialtoapproachassessmentofdigitalwithaspecialfocusongroupsandcommunitiesthatareatriskofbeingexcluded.

■Comprehensivelymapandrecorddigital

spending.Costsassociatedwithdigital—

includingcostsindigitalliteracyand

competencybuilding,up-frontinvestmentin

hardwareandsoftwareandongoingcosts—arenotoftenreportedinasystematicway(ormayberolledintolargerdepartmentalornationalbudgets).Beingabletoidentifydigitalspend

isakeypartofunderstandingthereturn-on-investmentthatdigitalcanenable.

■Engagewiththepositiveandnegative

multipliersofdigital.Governmentsandpartnersneedtounderstandthenetimpactofdigital

onindividuals,communitiesandenvironment,

includingworkingwithcommunitiestoidentifyandtacklenegativeconsequences.Thisalso

includesrecognizingthedifficultiesofattributionandexploringbroadermonitoring,learning

andevaluationapproaches,includingmixed-methodsapproaches,ethnographyandothertoolsthatcouldbegintoexplorecausation.

■Beopeninthinkinganddelivery.Governmentsshouldbeopentosharingtheirlearningand

measurementstosupportothercountriesin

navigatingtheirrespectivedigitaltransformationjourneys.Similarly,governmentscanalso

benefitfromopenandopen-sourcedigital

solutionsthathavebeentestedinothersettings.

UNDPGlobalPolicyNetworkBriefDEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIES

Althoughmeasuringdigitaltransformationimpactanditsdevelopmentvalueisacomplextask,

itiscrucialtoexploreandfurtherunpackthis

broaderrelationship.UNDPrecognizestheneedtodemonstratetheeffectivenessofitsinterventions

Morebroadly,alldigitaldevelopmentactors,

includingtheinternationaldevelopmentcommunity,

needtoinvestincollectingdata,buildnational

capacitiesonmeasuringthedevelopment

impactofdigitalandshapethenarrativewith

andinvestmentsinachievingdevelopment

outcomesthatareoftenmultidimensionaland

interlinked.UNDPismovinginthedirectionof

developingaholisticRoI-DTframeworkand

encouragesgovernmentsandotherdevelopmentpartnerstoadoptthisthinkingandsupporttheseeffortsbyexploringdifferentwaysofattributing

digitalinterventionstodevelopmentoutcomesandsharingbestpracticesandcountries’impactstories.

evidenceofimpact.Futureinvestmentsindigital

transformationeffortsneedspecificdirection,and

moreandbetterevidenceofdigitaltransformation

developmentreturnscanandshouldhelpguide

thoseinterventionsandmakethemmoreefficient.

Developinganarrativearoundthereturns,making

acasefordigitaltransformationwithexamplesof

impactisalsoimportantforcrowding-inadditional

fundingandpartnerships.Thisincludesbuilding

monitoringandevaluationskillswithingovernment

toidentifytheimpactofdigital.

Endnotes

1VitaliiZakhozhyiisadigitalanalystatUNDPChiefDigitalOffice,

email:

vitalii.zakhozhyi@

;CalumHandforthisadigital

programmesstrategicmanageratUNDPChiefDigitalOffice,email:

calum.handforth@

.

Acknowledgements:TheauthorswouldliketothankRobertOpp,

UNDPChiefDigitalOfficer,YolandaMa,headofdigitalpolicy&globalpartnershipsatUNDPChiefDigitalOffice,MeganRoberts,

UNDPdigitaldevelopmentengagementandpositioningmanageratUNDPChiefDigitalOffice,DariaAsmolova,digitalspecialistatUNDPChiefDigitalOffice,ChristineWellingtonMoore,SDGintegration

leadatUNDPRBAP,OlenaUrsu,programmespecialist,DemocraticGovernanceatUNDPUkraine,VirginiaVarela,programmeanalystatUNDPUruguay,VichittraPurdassee,projectmanageratUNDP

Mauritius,AnowarulHaq,assistantresidentrepresentativeatUNDPBangladesh,MihailPeleah,programmespecialist,GreenEconomyandEmployment,UNDPIstanbulRegionalHub,andManishPant,

policyspecialist,DigitalHealth,UNDPfortheirreviewofandhelpfulcommentsonthisbrief.

2UNDP(2022).UNDPDigitalStrategy2022–2025,

https://

/

3UnitedNations(2023).OurCommonAgenda,PolicyBrief5:‘AGlobalDigitalCompact:AnOpen,FreeandSecureDigitalFutureforAll’,

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12Souter,David(2021).‘InsidetheDigitalSociety:HowDoWeMeasure

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13Mammadli,ElvinandKlivak,Vsevolod(2020).‘MeasuringtheEffectof

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14Domínguez,Javier&Perez,Eugenia&González,Jorge.(2021).The

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16PwC