亚开行-东帝汶的财政状况：税收和公共支出对贫困和不平等的影响（英）

FISCALINCIDENCEINTIMOR-LESTE

IMPACTOFTAXATIONANDPUBLICEXPENDITURE

ONPOVERTYANDINEQUALITY

APRIL2024

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

FISCALINCIDENCE

INTIMOR-LESTE

IMPACTOFTAXATIONANDPUBLICEXPENDITURE

ONPOVERTYANDINEQUALITY

APRIL2024

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

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©2024AsianDevelopmentBank

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PublicationStockNo.SPR230620-2

DOI:

/10.22617/SPR230620-2

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Notes:

1.ThisstudywasconductedunderTA9122-TIM:Timor-Leste,FiscalPolicyforImprovedServiceDelivery.ThisstudywasmanagedbyDavidFreedman,formerCountryEconomist,andthepublicationwasmanagedbyKavitaIyengar,Economist,SoutheastAsiaDepartment.

2.Inthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars.

Onthecover:CommonfolkandmarketscenesfromTimor-Leste(photosbyLuisEnriqueAscui/ADB).

Contents

TablesandFiguresiv

Forewordv

Prefacevi

Acknowledgmentsvii

ExecutiveSummaryviii

1.Introduction

1

2.MethodsandApproach

3

3.Data

5

DataSources

5

DataLimitations

5

ConstructionoftheIncomeandExpenditureVariables

6

4.Results

8

ImpactofTaxesandSocialExpendituresonPovertyandInequality

8

TargetingtheIncidenceofTaxesandExpenditures

11

Coverage

16

5.PolicySimulations

19

BolsadaMãe

19

ElectricitySubsidies

23

IncreasingWageIncomeTaxes

25

ShiftingtoaValue-AddedTax

2

6

6.Conclusions

28

Appendixes

1CalculatingtheCommitmenttoEquityIncomeVariablesandTheirComponents

30

2MeasuresofInequality,Poverty,andIncidence

39

References

43

TablesandFigures

Tables

1TaxandExpenditureItemsIncludedintheAssessment

6

2InequalityandPovertyforCommitmenttoEquityIncomeMeasures

8

3TargetingandEffectivenessofSocialExpenditures

13

4TargetingandEffectivenessofTaxes

15

5CoverageofTransferPayments

16

6EducationCoverage

17

7HealthCareCoverageasaPercentageofTotalPopulationinQuintile

18

8BolsadaMãeSimulations

20

9UniversalBasicIncomeSimulations

23

10ElectricitySubsidySimulations

2

4

11WageIncomeTaxSimulations

25

12Value-AddedTaxSimulations

2

6

A1.1Timor-LesteExciseDutyRates,2014

32

A1.2Cost-of-ProvisionforFreeandSubsidizedHealthandEducationServices

33

A1.3GovernmentRevenues,ActualBudgets,andTLSLSEstimates

35

A1.4GovernmentExpenditures,ActualBudgets,andTLSLSEstimates

38

A2.1ExampleDataforaLorenzCurveandGiniCoefficient

39

A2.2Foster–Greer–ThorbeckeMeasureofPoverty:AnIllustration

40

A2.3ExampleDataforaConcentrationCurve

41

Figures

1DefinitionoftheCommitmenttoEquityIncomeConcepts

4

2ChangeinGiniCoefficientfromMarkettoFinalIncome

9

3ChangeinPovertyHeadcountfromMarkettoConsumableIncome

10

4NetPayersorBeneficiariesofTaxesandSocialExpendituresbyDecile

10

5NetPayersorBeneficiariesofTaxesandSocialExpendituresbyDecile(VerticalAxisTruncated)11

6ConcentrationCoefficientsforConditionalCashTransferPrograms,SelectedfromCountries19

withCompletedCommitmenttoEquityAssessments

A1.1CivilServantsbyPayGrade,PayrollDataversusTLSLSData

36

A2.1ExampleLorenzCurve

40

A2.2ConcentrationCurve

41

T

Foreword

imor-Leste’sexperienceprovidesanimportant

exampleofhowfiscalpoliciescansupportpost-crisisrecovery.Since2006,successivegovernmentshaveusedtherevenuesfromoffshoreoilandgas

productiontofundnewsocialassistanceprograms,

scaleupspendingonhealthandeducation,and

upgradeinfrastructure.Theseprogramshelped

reducetheproportionofthepopulationbelowthe

internationalpovertylineof$1.90perdayfrom47.2%in2007to30.3%in2014,thelastyearforwhich

nationallyrepresentativesurveydataisavailable.

AspartofitsongoingpartnershipwithTimor-Leste’sMinistryofFinance,theAsianDevelopmentBank

(ADB)hashelpedtheGovernmentofTimor-Lestetocompletethefirstcomprehensivefiscalincidenceanalysisforthecountry.Theanalysis,whichis

presentedinthisreport,waspreparedthrougha

partnershipwiththeCommitmenttoEquity(CEQ)Institute.Theresultsoftheanalysisarestriking,withTimor-Lesteachievingoneofthelargestpoverty

reductionsofanycountrywheretheCEQframeworkhasbeenapplied.

Theanalysisshowscashandnear-cashtransfers

reducedthepovertyheadcountby10.4percentagepointswhichisfurtherreducedby11percentage

pointswhentheestimatedvalueofin-kindhealthand

educationservicesisaddedtohouseholds’income.

Theanalysisalsoshowsthatfiscalpolicyisprogressive

inthesensethatitservestoreduceinequality,

withanestimatedreductionintheGinicoefficient

from0.32to0.27.Thereductionininequalityis

smallwhencomparedtothemagnitudeofpoverty

reduction.However,cross-countryanalysisshows

thatthereductionininequalityseeninTimor-Leste

isaboveaverageconsideringthecountry’slevelof

development.

Theexpansionofprogramsbenefitinghouseholds

withoutanyconcurrentincreaseinhouseholds’tax

burdenmayhavesupportedTimor-Leste’ssocial

stabilityandpeace-buildingprocess.However,over

time,Timor-Lesteislikelytofacegrowingpressure

tobothincreasedomesticrevenuemobilizationand

toadjustexpenditurestomaximizedevelopment

impacts.

IwouldliketocommendEpifanioMartins,National

DirectorofEconomicPolicy,MinistryofFinance,

GovernmentofTimor-Leste,andtheentireteam

forthisexcellentanalysis.IwouldliketothankADB

fortheirsupportinthepreparationofthistimelyand

usefulreport.

HelderLopes

Governor,BancoCentraldeTimor-Leste

Preface

M

anycountriesinAsiaandthePacificcontinuetofaceunprecedentedchallengesinthewakeofthecoronaviruspandemic.Againstthisbackdrop,fiscalpolicyhasneverbeenmoreimportant.

Governmentsintheregionhaverespondedtothe

pandemicwithnewpackagesoftaxrelief,wage

subsidies,andcashtransfers.Thesemeasureshave

provencrucialinstemmingthecrisis.Asgovernmentstransitionfromemergencyresponsetoeconomic

recovery,theymayfacedifficultchoicesabouthowtorebuildrevenuesandrationalizetheirfuturespending.Lookingahead,itwillbeimportanttoensurethat

fiscalpoliciesremainconsistentwithgrowthandmacroeconomicstability.

Changesinfiscalpoliciescanhavesignificantimpactsonbothpovertyandincomeinequality.Byanalyzingtheincidenceoftaxationandexpendituresamong

differentsegmentsofthepopulation,itispossibletoobtainaclearpictureofhowfiscalpolicyimpacts

incomedistributionacrosssociety.Thisanalysiscan

helpgovernmentsbetterunderstandtheoverall

impactoftheircurrentpolicies,andbetterevaluate

differentpolicyoptions.

Fiscalincidenceanalysisisatoolthatcanbeusedto

supportchangesinfiscalpolicy.Thisreportpresents

aseriesofpolicysimulationswhichconsiderthe

revenueanddistributionalimpactsofpossiblechanges

inthedesignofexpenditureprogramsorinstruments

forrevenuecollectioninTimor-Leste.Wehopethe

methodology,analysis,andresultspresentedinthis

reportwillbeinsightfulforstakeholdersinTimor-

Leste,andforothercountriesinAsiaandthePacific.

OnbehalfoftheAsianDevelopmentBank,Iwould

liketoexpressmyappreciationfortheexcellent

collaborationwiththeGovernmentofTimor-Leste

andCommitmenttoEquityInstituteindelivering

thisstudy.

WinfriedWicklein

DirectorGeneral

SoutheastAsiaDepartment

AsianDevelopmentBank

Acknowledgments

T

heanalysisdrewondataprovidedbyarangeofGovernmentofTimor-Lesteagenciesanddevelopmentpartners.Thisreportwaswrittenby

ateamfromTimor-Leste’sMinistryofFinanceand

CommitmenttoEquityInstitute.StephenD.YoungerledtheteamandwassupportedbyCarlosCondeJ.T.NevesdeCamoes,AlziraDoutel,MayaGoldman,Francisco

SoaresdeJesus,CiriloPereiraMendonca,andNiltonVicente.OverallguidanceandsupervisionoftheteamwasprovidedbyEpifanioMartins,NationalDirectorofEconomicPolicy,MinistryofFinance,GovernmentofTimor-Leste.

Theteamwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributions

providedbytheofficialsandadvisorsoftheGovernmentofTimor-Leste,aslistedbelow.

MinistryofPlanningandFinance.FernandaBorges,Coordinator,FiscalReformCommission;Januarioda

Gama,GeneralDirectorofStateFinance;Eliasdos

SantosFerreira,GeneralDirectorofStatistics;EpifanioMartins,NationalDirectorofEconomicPolicy;MónicaRangeldaCruz,GeneralDirectorofTaxAuthority;

CristinoGusmao,NationalDirectorofEconomic

SocialStatistics;SilvinoLopes,NationalDirector,

SystemandReports;OstialinaDulceAnabelaC.P.

Santos,NationalDirectorofRevenueAccounting,TaxAuthority;UldaricoRodrigues,NationalDirectorof

Declarative,Liquidation,andCollectionManagement,TaxAuthority;M.daCostaBelo,ChiefofInformationSystemUnit,TaxAuthority;GerardoA.Puga,NationalAccounts,Non-ResidentAdvisor,GeneralDirectorateofStatistics.

MinistryofAgriculture.FaustinoT.G.daCosta,

NationalDirector,NationalDirectorateofPolicyandPlanningforMonitoringandLegalMatters;CarlosdaCostaLemos,ChiefofDepartment,DepartmentofPolicyandPlanning.

MinistryofEducation.AntoninhoPires,General

Director,AdministrationandFinance;ManuelMonteiro,

NationalDirector,AdministrationandFinance;

JosedosSantos,ChiefofDepartment,Administration

andFinance;JustinoVarela,ChiefofDepartment,

Finance,AdministrationandLogistics;RuiFreitas,

NationalConsultant,Finance.

MinistryofHealth.MarceloAmaral,National

Director,AdministrationandFinance.

MinistryofPublicWorks,NationalDirectorate

ofElectricity.JoseSmith,ChiefofDepartment,

NationalDirectorateofCustomerSupport;Jose

Fernandes,NationalDirector,NationalDirectorateof

CustomerSupport.

MinistryofSocialSolidarity.AidaMariaSoares

Mota,NationalDirector,NationalDirectorateof

SocialContributionScheme;LourencoMarquesda

Silva,NationalDirectorateofSocialContribution

Scheme;NunoGabrielSá,TechnicalAdvisor,

NationalDirectoratefortheCombatantsof

NationalLiberation.

Theteamisgratefulforthesupportofthefollowing

multilateralagencies.

InternationalLabourOrganization.AndréF.

Bongestabs,SocialProtectionOfficer.

WorldBank.AdelaideNevesdeCamoes,Education

Specialist,EducationProgram;DavidKnight,

SeniorEconomist,MacroeconomicsTradeand

Investment;EricVitale,ProgramCoordinator,Country

ManagementUnit.

ExecutiveSummary

incidenceanalysistobepreparedforTimor-

T

hisreportpresentsthefirstcomprehensivefiscal

Leste.Thisanalysiswascarriedoutbyapplyingthe

methodologydevelopedbytheCommitmenttoEquity(CEQ)Institutetodatafromthe2014Timor-Leste

SurveyofLivingStandardsandarangeofGovernmentofTimor-Lesteadministrativesources.1

UsingtheCEQframeworkenablestheresultsfrom

thisanalysistobecomparedwithothercountries

wheretheCEQmethodologyhasbeenapplied.TheanalysisfoundthatTimor-Leste’sfiscalmeasures

tosupportthenominalincomeofhouseholdshad

apositiveimpactonreducingthepovertyrate.The

overallimpactonpovertyreductionislargerthananyothercountrywheretheCEQmethodologyhasbeenapplied,withtheexceptionofGeorgia.

In2014,whichisthelastyearforwhichdetailed

householdsurveydataisavailable,cashandnear-

cashtransfersreducedthepovertyheadcountby

10.4percentagepoints.Whentheestimatedvalue

ofin-kindhealthandeducationservicesisaddedto

households’income,thenthepovertyheadcount

fallsbyafurther11percentagepoints.Taxesincreasepoverty,butbysmallamounts,reflectingthesmalltaxtakeinTimor-Leste.

Theimpactoffiscalpolicyonincomeinequalityis

lessdramatic.Theanalysisshowsthatfiscalpolicy

isprogressiveinthesensethatitservestoreduce

inequality,withanestimatedreductionintheGini

coefficientfrom0.32to0.27.Thereductionin

inequalityissmallwhencomparedtothemagnitudeofpovertyreduction.However,crosscountry

analysisshowsthatthereductionininequalityseen

inTimor-Lesteisaboveaverageconsideringthe

country’slevelofdevelopment.

Thesestrikingresultsreflecttwobroadfeaturesof

Timor-Leste’sdevelopmentsinceindependence.

Firstly,inequalityislow,andmanyhouseholdshave

incomesclosetothenationalpovertyline.Secondly,

thegovernmenthasusedpartoftheincomefrom

offshoreoilandgasproductiontofinanceseverallarge

socialassistanceprogramsandasignificantincrease

inspendingoneducation.To-date,financingofthese

programshasnotrequiredadditionalmobilizationof

domesticrevenues,thusenablinganunusualsituation

inwhichrepresentativehouseholdsfromalldeciles

oftheincomedistributionarenetbeneficiariesof

governmentservices.Thismeansthatthevalueof

transferpayments,subsidies,andin-kindservicesthat

householdsreceivefromgovernmentexceedsthe

paymentstheymaketothegovernmentthroughdirect

andindirecttaxes.

Theexpansionofprogramsbenefitinghouseholds

withoutanyconcurrentincreaseinhouseholds’tax

burdenmayhavesupportedTimor-Leste’ssocial

stabilityandpeace-buildingprocess.However,itis

unlikelytobesustainableinthelong-termunlessthere

arefurtherlargenaturalresourcedevelopments.Over

time,Timor-Lesteislikelytofacegrowingpressure

tobothincreasedomesticrevenuemobilizationand

toadjustexpenditurestomaximizedevelopment

impacts.Fiscalincidenceanalysisisatoolthat

canbeusedtosupportchangesinfiscalpolicy.To

demonstratethis,thereportpresentsaseriesof

policysimulationswhichconsidertherevenueand

1Thisempiricalstudyisbasedonthedatasetforhouseholdincome,expenditureandconsumptionpatterns,andnationalpovertylineestimatesinthePovertyinTimor-Leste2014andTimor-LesteSurveyofLivingStandards2014reports.

ExecutiveSummaryix

distributionalimpactsofpossiblechangesinthe

designofexpenditureprogramsorinstrumentsforrevenuecollection.

Theanalysisfindsthatmostpovertyreductionis

achievedthroughtheold-ageandveteranspensions.Neitherofthesesocialtransfersaretargetedonthebasisofpoverty.Timor-Leste’srelativelyflatand

compressedincomedistributionmadeitdifficultto

developproxy-meantestsforidentifyingpoor

households.Thisunderminedeffortstodesigna

conditionalcashtransferforthetargetedhouseholdsegments.Hence,itiscriticaltomakecashtransfer

programsbettertargetedbasedontherecentincomedistributiondataandproxy-meantests.2Thereportpresentsanumberofsimulationsofchangesinthe

designofthisprogram,includingestablishmentofauniversalchildbenefit.Thereportalsofindsthat

whensavingsfromphasingoutelectricitysubsidiestothegeneralpopulationareredirectedtothepoorthroughsocialassistanceprogramssuchasBolsadaMãe,povertyandinequalitydecreaseswithoutanyadditionalcosttothebudget.

Theanalysisofdirectandindirecttaxespresentedinthereportshowsthattheincidenceofthesetaxesis

relativelyprogressive,andthatsmalldesignchangescanhelptosafeguardorreinforcethisprogressivity

whilealsoenablinggreaterrevenuecollection.This

suggeststhatfutureeffortstoincreasedomestic

revenuecollectionthroughchangesintheratesor

thresholdsforpersonalincometaxorintroduction

ofavalueaddedtaxwillnotnecessarilyleadtoa

significantincreaseinpoverty.Indeed,suchmeasurescouldbeusedtofinanceadditionalexpendituresthatarerelativelyconcentratedamongpoorhouseholds,thushelpingtoachieveanetreductioninpoverty

andinequalitywithoutfurtherunderminingfiscal

sustainability.

Inconsideringtheresultspresentedinthisreport,it

isimportanttobeclearaboutsomeofthelimitationsoftheanalysis.Timor-Leste’seconomyhaschangedsince2014andsotheoverallimpactofdifferentfiscalpolicyinstrumentswillalsohavechangedtosome

extent.Perhapsmoreimportantly,therearesome

inherentlimitsinthescopeforfiscalpolicytodirectlydrivepovertyreduction.Whileitisnecessarytolookathowtaxationandspendingaffectshousehold

incomes,itisequallypertinenttoremainattentiveto

thewaysinwhichpublicpoliciesinfluencehouseholds’productivepotentialandtheincentivesthattheyface.

2BolsadaMãe–JerasaunFoun,TechnicalNote#2-2021.BolsadaMãeJerasaunFounisplannedtobeimplementedasauniversalprogramforthetargetpopulation,i.e.,pregnantwomenandearlychildhood.

1.Introduction

O

neofthefunctionsofagovernmentisto

redistributeresources,especiallytothemost

disadvantagedmembersofsociety.Althoughthereisconsiderabledisagreementoverboththeextentand

themeanstoeffectsuchredistribution,mostpeopleagreethatsocietyisbetteroffifinequalityandpovertycanbereduced,andallgovernmentsdo,infact,

redistributeincomewiththeirtaxandexpenditure

policies.ThepurposeofthisreportistoexaminetheextenttowhichtheGovernmentofTimor-Lestedoesso.Inparticular,thereportaddressesfourgeneral

questions:

(i)Howmuchredistributionandincomepoverty

reductionisbeingaccomplishedthroughrevenuecollection,socialspending,andsubsidies?

(ii)Howprogressivearerevenuecollection,subsidies,andgovernmentsocialspending?

(iii)Howeffectivearerevenuecollection,subsidies,andgovernmentsocialspendingatreducing

inequalityandpoverty?

(iv)Withinthelimitsoffiscalprudence,whatcouldbedonetoincreaseredistributionandpovertyreductionthroughchangesintaxationand

spending?

Toputthesequestionsincontext,Timor-Lesteisa

veryyoungcountry,havingregainedindependence

in2002.Atindependence,itwasalsoverypoor,so

thegovernment’sabilitytotaxandspendwasquite

limited.Thoserestrictionschangeddramatically

withthedevelopmentofBayu-Undan,anoffshore

oilandgasfieldthatcameonlinein2004.Whileall

petroleumrevenuesarepaidintoasovereignwealth

fund—thePetroleumFund—transfersfromthefund

togovernmentweresufficienttoallowgovernment

spendingtomorethandoubleinrealtermsbetween

2008and2016(WorldBank,2021).1Whilea

largeshareofthatspendingwenttomuch-needed

infrastructure,thekindsofsocialspendingthat

featureinanincidenceanalysis—education,health,

andtransferpayments—alsoincreasedsubstantially.

Educationspendingperstudentmorethandoubled

duringthesameperiod,2transferpayments

increasedby50%,3andhealthspendingpercapitaby

approximately30%,4allinrealterms.Timor-Lestenow

hassocialspendingsharesthatlookmorelikeamiddle

incomecountrythanapoorone,especiallywithregard

toitstransferpayments.

Hasthatextraspendingpaidoffintermsofpoverty

andinequalityreduction?Theshortanswerisa

resounding“yes”forpovertyreduction,and“not

much”forinequality.Theanalysispresentedinthis

1Timor-LestefollowedaduodecimalregimeifthestatebudgetwasnotpassedbytheParliament.Insuchacase,one-twelfthoftheprevious

yea