2023年欧盟天然气供需平衡-如何为2023-24的冬天做准备（英）

Naturalgassupply-demand

balanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

Howtoprepareforwinter2023/24

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Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

3

Summary

TheEuropeanandtheglobalgasmarketsufferedamajorsupplyshockin2022:Russia’ssteepgassupplycutstotheEuropeanUnionputanunprecedentedpressureonthemarket,triggeringaglobalnaturalgascrisis.

DespitethesteepdeclineinRussianpipedgas,theEuropeanUnionwasabletofillupitsgasstoragesitestowell-abovehistoricaverages.Thestrongstoragebuild-upwassupportedbyacombinationofwell-tailoredpolicymeasures,arecordinflowofLNGandasteepdropinnaturalgasconsumption,inparticularingas-intensiveandenergy-intensiveindustries.Thecurrentnaturalgascrisismakesitclearthatcleanenergytransitionsareurgentandwillhelptoincreasestabilityintheglobalgasmarket.

Globalgassupplyissettoremaintightin2023andtheglobalbalanceissubjecttoanunusuallywiderangeofuncertaintiesandexogenousriskfactors.ThisincludesthepossibilityofcompletecessationofRussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnion,aswellasarecoveryofChina’sLNGimportsinlinewiththecountry’slong-termLNGcontractsandapotentialloweravailabilityofLNGsupply.Takingintoconsiderationacombinationoftheserisks,andassumingatthetimethatEUgasstoragefacilitieswouldbearoundone-thirdfullatthebeginningofthe2023fillingseason,,the2022“HowtoAvoidGasShortagesintheEuropeanUnion”Reportidentifiedapotentialsupply-demandgapof57bcmintheEuropeanUnionin2023.

SincethepublicationofourReportinmid-December2022,theprevailingtensionsontheEuropeanUnion’sgassupply-balancehavemoderated.Thecombinationofstrongersupplyandlower-than-expecteddemandresultedininventorylevelsstanding15bcmabovethestoragelevelsmodelledintheanalysisunderpinningour“HowtoAvoidGasShortagesintheEuropeanUnion”Report.

ThisimprovedoutlookshouldnotbeadistractionfromthemeasuresnecessarytoreducenaturalgasdemandinastructuralmannertomitigatetheEuropeanUnion’sexposuretotheexogenousrisks.WehavedevelopedanewstressscenariowherebyRussiangasceasesfrommid-February2023,LNGsuppliesremaintightandweather-relateddemandincreaseslaterintheyear.Thisupdate,takingintoaccountdataavailableupto15February2023,wouldresultinapotentialsupply-demandgapof40bcmintheEuropeanUnionovertheremainderof2023incontrastwithourbasecasenotforeseeingsuchagap.ThefollowingReportidentifiesfourkeypolicymeasurestoenhancetheEuropeanUnion’sanditsEasternneighbourhood’snaturalgassupplysecurity:

1.Reducenaturalgasdemandinastructuralmanner:AnalysisbythemembersoftheIEA'sTaskForceonGasMarketMonitoringandSupplySecurity(TFG)suggeststhattheEuropeanUnioncouldpotentiallyreduce

4

itsnaturalgasdemandbycloseto37bcmin2023throughimprovingenergyefficiency,continuedexpansionofrenewablespowergeneration,deploymentofheatpumpsandbehaviouralchanges.Themagnitudeofsuchdemandreductionwouldrequireacollectiveandsimultaneousdeploymentofthesesolutionsatunprecedentedspeedandscale.Moreover,non-EUcountriesinEuropehavealsotakenmeasurestoreducedemandbyover3bcm,whichwouldclosetheabovementionedpotential40bcmsupply-demandgap.

2.Continueoptimisingtheuseofexistinginfrastructureandimplementtheremaininggasinfrastructurepriorityprojects:Consideringthechangingpatternofnaturalgasimportsandcross-bordergasflows,theEuropeanUnionanditsMemberStatesshouldcontinueoptimisingtheuseofexistinginfrastructureandcarefullyassessfuture-proofgasinfrastructurerequirementsinclosecoordinationwithrelevantstakeholders,whileavoidingcarbonlock-ineffectsandstrandedassets.

3.EnhancesolidaritywiththeEasternNeighbourhoodoftheEuropeanUnion:UpholdingenergysecurityandsovereigntyinUkraine,Moldovaandotherresource-limitedcountriesintheregionrequiresthatalliesaroundtheworldareabletostandfirmandenhancecooperationandcoordination,includingongasandenergysupplysecurity.ThereisacontinuedneedtoassessthesolidaritygasneedsinparticularofUkraineandMoldovaandenhanceinterconnectivityandinfrastructureco-usewiththeEuropeanUnion.

4.EnhancemarkettransparencyandfacilitatedataexchangeonenergysupplysecuritysecurityamongIEAmembersandlikemindedcountries:Thecurrentglobalenergyandgascrisisrequirestheestablishmentofacloserandmoreregulardialoguebetweenresponsibleenergyproducersandconsumers.Thisshouldbeunderpinnedbyenhancedmarkettransparency,aregularexchangeofdataandclosemonitoringofnaturalgassupplysecurity.

Withoutimplementingthesepolicymeasures,theEuropeanandglobalgasmarketcouldfacerenewedperiodofsupply-demandtensions,coupledwithheightenedpricevolatilitythrough2023,andanincreasedriskofgassupplyshortagesoverthe2023/24winterseason.Consideringtheincreasinglyglobalisednatureofthegasmarket,increasedgasdemandintheEuropeanUnionorotherregionsoftheworldcould,underminegasandelectricitysupplysecurityinother,morepricesensitivemarkets.Thisiswhyjointefforts,includingamongIEAmembersandwithotherlikemindedcountries,areneededtoreducestressontheglobalgasmarkets.

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

5

Thegassupplyshockof2022

Russia’ssteepgassupplycutstotheEuropeanUnionputanunprecedentedpressurebothontheEuropeanandglobalgasmarkets,triggeringaglobalgascrisis.Russia’spipednaturalgasexportstoOECDEuropefellbyanestimated49%(or82bcm)y-o-yin2022,totheirlowestlevelsincethemid-1980s.WhilstdeliveriestotheRepublicofTürkiyedeclinedby15%y-o-y,gassuppliestotheEuropeanUnionmorethanhalved-translatingintoadropof78bcmcomparedto2021.

ThesteepdropinRussiangassupplydroveupEuropeanhubprices,andindirectlyAsianspotLNG,toall-timehighsin2022.InEurope,TTFspotpricesaveragedatarecordhighEUR120/MWh(USD38/MBtu)in2022–almosteighttimestheirfive-yearaverageduring2016-2020.GaspricesrosetotheirhighestlevelinQ3,asthesteepdeclineinRussianpipedgascoincidedwithhighergasburninthepowersectorandstrongstorageinjections.Month-aheadpricesonTTFspikedtoanall-timehighofEUR340/MWh(USD99/MBtu)attheendofAugust.All-timehighgaspricesinEuropeputupwardpressureonAsianspotLNGprices,whichaveragedatUSD34/MBtuin2022–theirhighestlevelonrecordandmorethanfivetimestheirfive-yearaverageduring2016-2020.ThestrongincreaseingaspricesledtorecordhighelectricitypricesacrosstheEuropeanUnion.InGermany,electricitymonth-aheadpricesaveragedatoverEUR280/MWh–morethanseventimestheirfive-yearaverageduring2016-2020.

FlexibleUSLNGplayedacrucialroleinmitigatingtheshortfallinRussianpipedgassupply.LNGinflowsintotheEuropeanUnionroseby70%or55bcmin2022comparedtothepreviousyear–almosttwicetheincreaseinglobalLNGproduction.ThestrongpricesignalsprovidedbytheEuropeanhubsledtoareconfigurationofglobalLNGflowstowardstheEuropeanUnion,primarilyspotanddestination-flexibleLNGfrommorepricesensitivemarkets.LowerLNGdeliveriesdeterioratedelectricitysupplysecurityinSouthAsianmarkets–includinginBangladeshandPakistanwhereloadsheddingscheduleswereintroducedthrough2022.ThestrongLNGinflowintoEuropewaspartlyenabledbyanunprecedenteddropinChina’sLNGimports,whichdeclinedby21%(or22bcm)in2022–whichwasprimarilyduetolowerprocurementsonthehigh-pricedspotmarket.

Recordhighpricesdepressednaturalgasdemandin2022.Latestestimatesindicatethatglobalgasconsumptionfellbyover1%(or55bcm)in2022,primarilyduetolowerdemandinthekeyimportingmarketsoftheAsiaPacificregionandEurope.China’snaturalgasdemandfellby0.7%(or2.5bcm)–forthefirsttimesince1982.Slowereconomicgrowth,covid-inducedlockdownsandprice-driven

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

6

gas-to-coalswitchingweighedonChina’snaturalgasdemand.Japan’sandKorea’sgasdemandremainedbroadlyflat,whileIndia’sgasconsumptiondeclinedby4%amidstlowergasuseinpowergeneration,refiningandthepetrochemicalssector.IntheEuropeanUnion,naturalgasconsumptionfellbyanestimated13%(or55bcm)in2022comparedto2021–itssteepestdeclineinabsolutetermsinhistory.Distribution-networkrelateddemandfellbyanestimated17%(or28bcm)in2022,accountingforoverhalfofthetotalreductioningasconsumption.Milderweatherconditionsweighedonspaceheatingrequirements,whilerecordhighpricesincentivisedfuel-switchingandenergyefficiencymeasuresintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.Heatingdegreedays(HDDs)were12%belowtheir2021levelsdrivingdowngasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsbyaround18bcm.Energyefficiencyimprovements,togetherwithfuel-switchingdynamicsandbehaviouralchangesreducedgasuseinbuildingsbyanestimated10bcm.Gasdemandinindustryfellby25%(or25bcm)in2022.Production-curtailmentsacrossthemostgas-andenergy-intensiveindustriesaccountedforaroundhalfofthedecline,fuel-switching(primarilytowardsoilproducts)foranestimated30%.Acombinationofefficiencygains,importsubstitutionsandweathereffectexplaintheremainderofthedecline.Gasuseinthepowersectorremainedflatin2022despitelowerelectricitydemandandgas-to-coalswitching,aslowhydroandnuclearpowergenerationsupportedgas-firedgeneration.

Estimatedyear-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasdemandintheEuropeanUnionin2022

Source:IEAanalysisbasedonvariousmarketdata,includingtransmissionsystemoperators.

DespitethesteepdeclineinRussianpipedgas,storageinjectionsreachedarecordofover70bcmduringtheApriltomid-Novemberperiod.Unseasonably

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

7

mildweatherinOctoberandthefirsthalfofNovembereffectivelydelayedthestartoftheEuropeanheatingseasonbyonemonth,allowingfora4bcmofgasinjectionsbetweenmid-Octoberandmid-November-aperiodwhenstoragesitestypicallyturntowithdrawals.Inventorylevelsreached95%oftheirworkingstoragecapacitybymid-Novemberandclosedthecalendaryearstandingat20%(or14bcm)abovetheirfive-yearaverage.Thisprogresswastremendouslyencouraging,butweshouldnotethattheabilitytorepeatthisaccomplishmentfornextwintercouldbehinderedbythereducedavailabilityofRussianpipedgastoinjectintostorage.

MajorEuropeaninitiativesalreadytakentoeasestrainsongasmarkets

Alongsidethebroaderstructuralchangestargetedbythe

Fitfor55package

andthe

REPowerEU

plan,therehavebeenanumberofadditionalinitiativesand

infrastructureprojectsputinplaceoverthepastyearthatseektoincreasethe

resilienceofEuropeangasmarketsthattheIEAsupportedwithits10pointplan:

.Introductionofminimumgasstorageobligations:TheEuropeanUnionadopteda

newstorageregulation

inJune2022,accordingtowhichstoragesiteshavetobefilledtoatleast80%oftheircapacitybeforethewinterof2022-23,andto90%aheadofallfollowingwinterperiods.SeveralEUMemberStatesadoptedmorestringentregulations,aimingforfillingtargetsabove90%.

.Aregulationonco-ordinateddemandreductionmeasuresforgas:This

targets

a15%voluntaryreductioninEUgasdemandbetween1August2022and31March2023,comparedwithitsfive-yearaverage.ThereductiontargetcouldbecomemandatoryincasetheEuropeanUnionwouldtriggertheEUalertcrisislevel.

.Energydiplomacy:theEuropeanUnionintensifieditsinternationaloutreachtostrengthenenergypartnershipswithkeynaturalgasandLNGsuppliers,includingAlgeria,Azerbaijan,NorwayandtheUnitedStates.

.JointGasPurchasingMechanismadoptedinDecember2022willfacilitateabettercoordinationofjointgaspurchasesthroughatwo-stepprocess,includingdemandaggregationandvoluntaryparticipationinjointpurchasing.BesidestheEuropeanUnion,thejointpurchasingmechanismisopentoparticipationofcompaniesfromEnergyCommunityContractingParties.

.Enhancedsolidarity:theCounciladoptedinDecember2022newdefaultrulesforsharingnaturalgasamongstEUmemberstatesincaseofagenuineemergency.Thedefaultruleswillstepinonlyifmemberstateshavenotconcludedbilateralagreementssettingthemodalitiesofsolidarity.

.Newfloatingstorageregasificationunits(FSRUs)andtheexpansionofexistingregasificationterminalswillallowtheEuropeanUniontohave25%

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moreregasificationcapacityin2023thanin2021(anincreaseofaround40bcmonanannualisedbasis).

.Severalinterconnectorswerecommissionedaheadofthe2022-23heatingseasonthatfacilitatedinternalgasflowsanddiversificationofgassupply,includingbetweenCentralandSouth-EasternEuropeancountriesthathavehistoricallyhadahigherrelianceonRussianpipelinegas.

.Fasterdeploymentofrenewables.AspartoftheREPowerEUPlan,theEuropeanCommissionhasproposedanincreaseoftheEU’s2030targetforrenewablesto45%.TheEUhasadoptedemergencymeasurestoacceleratepermittingofrenewables.

.Theelectricityemergencymeasures,includingreductionofelectricityinpeakhours,whichledamongotherpositiveimpactstothereductionofgasuseforelectricityproductionandreducepressureonprices.

Globalgassupply-demandbalance

in2023:baseforecast

UnseasonablymildweathersincethestartoftheEuropeanheatingseason,togetherwithcontinuedstrongLNGinflowandhighinventorylevelsputdownwardpressureonEuropeanandAsianspotprices,averagingatEUR60/MWh(USD20/MBtu)sincethebeginningof2023.Nevertheless,globalgassupplyissettoremaintightin2023andtheglobalbalanceissubjecttoanunusuallywiderangeofuncertainties.

AccordingtoIEA’sforecast,globalgasdemandisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatin2023,withgrowthalmostentirelyconcentratedinthegas-richMiddleEasternmarketsandtheAsiaPacificregion.GasdemandinNorthAmerica,EuropeandEurasiaisexpectedtodeclinein2023.InAsia,gasdemandisexpectedtoincreasebycloseto3%,primarilydrivenbyChinaandIndia.NaturalgasdemandinChinaisforecastedtogrowby6.5%(or24bcm)in2023,drivenbytheexpectedrecoveryineconomicactivityfollowingtheeasingofCovid-19lockdownrestrictions.InIndia,totalgasconsumptionisprojectedtoincreaseby3%,drivenbyhighergasburninthepowersectorandcontinuing—albeitslow—growthintheindustrialandcitygassectors.InJapan,gasdemandisexpectedtodecreasebynearly4%amidstgrowingsolarandhighernuclearoutput(thankstoadditionalrestartsandimprovingoperatingratesofalreadyrestartedunits).Korea’snaturalgasdemandin2023isprojectedtodecreaseby

9

another2%,drivenbylowergasburninthepowersectoramidstthestart-upof2.1GWofnewcoal-firedcapacity,therestartofthe1GWHanbit4nuclearunitafterandthecommissioningofthe1.4GWShinHanul1nuclearblockscheduledforH22023.

NaturalgasdemandintheEuropeanUnionisexpectedtodeclinebycloseto3%(or10bcm)in2023comparedto2022to350bcm.Thiswillbeentirelydrivenbylowergas-to-powerdemand,decliningbyalmost20%comparedto2022.Continuedexpansionofwindandsolarpowergenerationcapacityisexpectedtoreducegasburninthepowersectorbyaround12bcm.Hydropowergenerationisassumedtorecovertoitsfive-yearaverage,furtherreducinggas-to-powerdemandby8bcm.Inthecaseofnuclear,higherFrenchgenerationin2023issettobelargelyoffsetbyreductionsinGermanyandplantclosuresinBelgium(Doel3inSeptember2022andTihange2inFebruary2023).WeestimatethatEUnuclearpowergenerationwillincreasebyaround2%(or10TWh)in2023,leadingtogassavingsof2bcm.Wedonotexpectfurthergas-to-coalswitchduring2023intheEuropeanUnion,despitehigheravailablecoalcapacityinsomecountries,mainlyGermany,ashighernuclearandrenewablegenerationwillreducetheopportunitiestodispatchcoalplants.Inthisregard,ouranalysisshowsthatgasdemandforpowerisveryelastictogaspricesaslongasthereisavailablecoal–andoil-capacity.Highemissionallowancespricesbenefitgasversuscoalinthemeritorderevenatrelativelyhighgasprices,whichcouldinfactreducecoal–andoil-powergenerationin2023comparedwith2022.However,whenthereisnoavailablecapacityofcoalandoil,gasdemandisveryinelastictogaspricesasitremainsasthemainsourceofflexibility.Thatwasthecaseduringabigpartoflastyearamidrestrictednuclearandhydrooutput,inwhichdespiteextremelyhighgasprices,demandforpowerincreased.ThesteepdropinnaturalgaspricessincethesecondhalfofDecember2022isexpectedtosupportgasdemandinindustry.Consideringrecentpricetrendsalongtheforwardcurve,industrialgasuseisexpectedtoincreaseby13%in2023.Incontrast,withthe“HowtoAvoidGasintheEuropeanUnion”Report,thisforecastdoesnotassumecontinuedgas-to-oilswitchingintheindustrialsector,amidsttheimprovingcompetitivenessofnaturalgasvis-à-visoilproductsinindustry.Assumingareturntoaverageweatherconditionsthroughtherestof2023,naturalgasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsisexpectedtoincreaseby3%.

Globalnaturalgassupplyisexpectedtoremaintightin2023:theincrementalLNGsupplyis2023won’tbesufficienttooffsettheexpecteddropinRussia’spipedgassuppliestotheEuropeanUnion.

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

10

Year-on-yearchangeinglobalLNGsupplyandkeypipelinegassupplies(2019-2023)

Source:IEAanalysisbasedonvariousmarketdata,includingcustomsdata,transmissionsystemoperators.

GlobalLNGsupplyisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5%(or23bcm)in2023.TheUnitedStatesalonewillaccountforhalfoftheincrementalsupply,supportedbytheramp-upoftheCalcasieuPassLNGterminalandthereturnofofFreeportLNG.InadditiontotheUnitedStates,LNGsupplyfromAfricaisprojectedtoincreasebyclose10bcm,amidstimprovingfeedgasavailabilityinAlgeriaandEgypt,andtheramp-upoftheCoralSouthandCongoFLNGplants.

Inourbasecase,LNGinflowsintotheEuropeanUnionwillincreasebyaround9%(or11bcm)comparedto2022to140bcmin2023-althoughthisisassumingamoderaterecoveryof3%inAsianLNGimports.HigherLNGuptakewillbefacilitatedbynewlycommissionedFSRU-basedregasificationplantsintheNetherlands,FinlandandGermany.

RussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnionwilldeclinebyaround35bcmin2023tojust25bcm.ThisisassumingnaturalgasflowsviaTurkStreamandUkrainewillcontinueattheaverageflowratesobservedinDecember2022.

Non-RussianpipelinesupplierstotheEuropeanUnionhavelimitedupsidepotential,projectedtoremainflatyear-on-year.Naturalgasproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyjust1bcmfrom121bcmin2022to122bcmin2023.Hence,NorwegianpipedgasflowstotheEuropeanUnionareexpectedtoremainbroadlyflat.SimilarlytoNorway,AzerigasdeliveriesviatheTAPpipelinewereclosetonameplatecapacityin2022andareexpectedtoincreasebylessthan1bcmin2023.InthecaseofAlgeria,somelimitedupsideisexpectedwiththedevelopmentofgasfieldsintheBerkineSouthbasin.Pipelineimportsfrom

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

11

theUnitedKingdomareassumedtomarginallydeclinebyfromtheirhistorichighsreachedin2022,amidsttighterpricespreadsbetweenNBPandTTF.

DomesticnaturalgasproductionintheEuropeanUnionisexpectedtodeclinebyaround5%in2023.IntheNetherlands,Groningengasproductionhasbeencappedat2.8bcmfortheGasYear2022/23(downfrom4.5bcmduringthepreviousGasYear)andextractionatthefieldisduetoceasecompletelyby2024atthelatest.InRomania,naturalgasproductionissettoincreasefromtheMidiaGasDevelopmentprojectandfromtheDoinaandAnaoffshorefields–offsettingthedeclinesfrommorematurefields.InDenmark,thereturnoftheTyrafieldwasdelayedintolate2023orearly2024.Thefieldwasinredevelopmentsince2018andwillsupply2.8bcmeachyeartotheEuropeanmarketonceoperational.

Russia’snaturalgasdeliveriestoChinaviathePowerofSiberiapipelinesystemaresettoramp-upbyover40%from15bcmin2022to22bcmin2023.PipelineimportsfromCentralAsiaareexpectedtomarginallydeclineamidstweakupstreamdeliverabilityinUzbekistanandKazakhstan.

Keyexogenousrisksin2023

TheglobalandEuropeannaturalgasbalanceissubjecttoanunusuallywiderangeofuncertaintiesin2023.Ifnotmitigatedthroughapropersetofmeasures,theseexogenousriskscanbreakthefragilebalancedescribedintheprevioussection.Thiswouldleadtohigher-than-expectedpricelevels,furtherdamagetheeconomyanddriveupdemandformorepollutingfuels.

Fourkeyexogenousrisksshouldbeconsidered:

.China’sLNGappetite:OurbaseforecastanticipatesChina’sLNGimportstoincreaseby10%(or8bcm)toreach94bcmin2023,althoughthisissubjecttoawiderangeofuncertainty.Ouranalysisindicatesthatasetofonlymoderatelybearishassumptionsontotalgasconsumption,domesticproductionandpipelinegasimportscoulddepressLNGdemandbyanother12%(10bcm)in2023,whereasaconfluenceofmodestlybullishconditionscouldboostChina’sLNGintakeby35%(30bcm)towell-abovethepreviouspeakin2021.Thetotaluncertaintyrangeisabout40bcm.

.Russia’sbehaviour:RussianpipedgassuppliestotheEuropeanUnionfurtherdeclinedsincethebeginningof2023(recordinga35%dropinJanuary2023comparedtoDecember2022levels)andcouldcease

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

12

entirely.Thiswouldbe25bcmlowerthanthesupplyassumedinourbasecaseandwouldresultinayear-on-yeardropof58bcmingassupplytotheEuropeanUnion.

.GlobalLNGsupplyisexpectedtoincreaseby23bcminourbasecase.Weestimatethatthedevelopmentofsmall-scaleLNGprojectsandtheimprovedavailabilityoffeedstockgastoexistingfacilities-includingviaenhancemethanesavings-couldresultinanadditional10bcmofLNGsupplyin2023.Conversely,unplannedoutagescouldlimitthegrowthinnewLNGsupplytowellbelow20bcmin2023.Thepossibilityofunexpectedoutagesisheightenedbyhighutilisationlevelsofavailablecapacityinrecentyears,alongsidepostponedmaintenanceatsomefacilities.

.WeatherconditionsinQ42023:consideringthetemperature-sensitivityofnaturalgasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,colderthanaveragetemperaturesinEuropeand/ornortheastAsiacouldfurthertightenuptheglobalgasmarketattheendof2023.OuranalysisindicatesthatifQ42023woulddisplaysimilartemperaturepatternsasin2010(thecoldestQ4inthelasttwodecades)distribution-networkrelateddemandwouldbe10bcmhigherthaninourbasecase.Incontrast,ifheatingdegreedaysdroptoasimilarlevelasin2006(themildestQ4intwodecades),distributionnetwork-relateddemandwouldbe4bcmbelowourbasecase.

UncertaintyrangesofkeyexogenousriskstotheEuropeanandglobalgasbalancein2023

Notes:redindicatesatighteningoftheglobal/Europeangasbalance.Blueindicateslooseningofthegasbalance.

Naturalgassupply-demandbalanceoftheEuropeanUnionin2023

13

Thescenariounderpinningthe“HowtoAvoidGasShortagesintheEuropeanUnion”Reportwasconstructedaroundacombinationoftheabovehighlightedrisksanduncertainties:

.AcompletecutofRussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnion,startingfromthebeginningof2023;

.RecoveryinChina’sLNGimportsclosetotheir2021levels(108bcm),inlinewiththecountry’sgrowingexposuretolong-termLNGcontracts.China’sLNGcontractsaresettoincreaseby13bcm/yrin2023tocloseto110bcm/yr.ThisprovidesChinawiththeopportunitytoincreaseitsLNGimportswithoutincrementalprocurementsfromthespotmarketand

.ArecoveryinChineseLNGimportdemandwouldlimitLNGavailabilitytoEuropeanbuyers.TheEuropeanUnionLNGimportswouldincreasebyjust7bcmunderthisscen