世界银行（Worldbank）：2023年6月全球经济展望：东亚与太平洋地区（概要）

GlobalEconomicProspects:EastAsiaandthePacific

June2023

Recentdevelopments:Followingasharpslowdownin2022,growthintheEastAsiaandPacific(EAP)regionisrecovering,supportedbystrongactivityinChinafollowingthereopeningofitseconomyandarapiddeclineinCOVID-19infections.GrowthinChinarecoveredstronglyinearly2023,underpinnedbyareleaseofpent-updemandthatbolsteredconsumption.Retailsalessurgedalongsideamoremodestuptickinindustrialproductiongrowth.Activitywassupportedbyareboundincontact-intensiveservicesectorsandstrongChineseNewYear-relatedspendingandtravel,andtherapidreturnofmigrantworkerstoworkplaces.Infrastructure-relatedstimulus,whichrampedupin2022,helpingtooffsetweaknessesinthepropertysector.Morerecently,thepropertysector—whichhasbeenweigheddownbyhighdebts—hasshowntentativesignsofemergingfromaprotractedslump.Policiestoensurethecompletionofunfinishedprojectsandrestoreconfidenceinthesectorhavehelpedtoliftpricesofpropertiesinanincreasingnumberofcities.

ElsewhereinEAP,growthslowedaroundtheturnoftheyearinanumberofeconomiesastheboostfromearlierreopeningfaded(Malaysia,Philippines,Vietnam).Whileconsumptiongrowthremainedfirm,goodstradedeceleratedbeforestabilizing,reflectingweakglobaldemandandtepidactivityingoods-trade-intensivesectorsinChina.However,servicestradebenefitedfromacontinuedrecoveryinglobaltourism,boostedbytouristsfromChinatakingadvantageofthereopeningofborders.

Outlook:GrowthintheEAPregionisprojectedtostrengthento5.5percentin2023,witharecoveryinChinaoffsettingmoderatinggrowthinseveralothereconomies.In2024and2025,growthinEAPisexpectedtoedgedownto4.6percentand4.5percentrespectively,asgrowthinChinaslowsalongsidebroadlystablegrowthintherestoftheregion.ComparedwithJanuaryprojections,growthinEAPisexpectedtobe1.2percentagepointshigherin2023and0.3percentagepointlowerin2024.Therevisionsprimarilyreflecttheearlier-than-expectedreopeningofChina,wheregrowthhasbeenrevisedupby1.3percentagepointsin2023butdownby0.4percentagepointin2024.

InChina,growthisprojectedtoreboundto5.6percentin2023,asthereopening,togetherwithaccumulatedexcesssavings,supportshouseholdspending,particularlyonservices.Growthisthenprojectedtomoderateto4.6percentin2024and4.4percentin2025,asreopeningeffectsfade.Investmentgrowthisexpectedtopickupmodestlythisyear,supportedbyinfrastructure-relatedstimulusandagradualrecoveryinthepropertysector.Inflationisexpectedtoremainbelowtargetgiveneconomicslack,includinginlabormarkets.

InEAP,(excludingChina),growthisexpectedtobe4.8percentin2023asthetailwindsfromreopeningandpent-updemandfade.PositivespilloversfromChina’srecoveryareexpectedtobelimitedgivenitsconcentrationondomesticservicesactivity.Furthermore,thesepositivespilloversarelikelytobeoutweighedinsomecasesbydomesticheadwinds,particularlyelevatedinflationandthecontinuedeffectsofdomesticmonetarypolicytightening.Whilebothcoreandheadlineinflationareexpectedtoeasethrough2023,inthenearterm,headlineinflationislikelytoremainabovecentralbanktargetsinsomecountries(Mongolia,Philippines),owingtothedelayedpass-throughofincreasesinglobalcommoditypricesanddomesticsupplyshocks.Moderatingcommoditypriceswillhelpreduceheadlineinflationthisyearbutitwillalsoweakenthetermsoftradeofcommodityexporters,includingIndonesia.

Risks:Thebaselineprojectionfortheregionissubjecttoseveraldownsiderisks,includingtighter-than-expecteddomesticandglobalfinancialconditions,persistentlyhighinflation,continuedweaknessinChina’spropertysector,andafaster-than-anticipatedfadingofthepost-pandemicreboundinChina.Anintensificationofgeopoliticaltensionspresentsafurtherdownsiderisk,asdonaturaldisasters,includingextremeweathereventsrelatedtoclimatechange,whichcanimposeparticularlylargecostsonthesmallPacificIslandeconomies.

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EastAsiaandPacificCountryForecasts

(Annualpercentchangeunlessindicatedotherwise)

202020212022e2023f2024f2025f

GDPatmarketprices(average2010-19US$)

Cambodia

-3.1

3.0

5.2

5.5

6.1

6.3

China

2.2

8.4

3.0

5.6

4.6

4.4

Fiji

-17.0

-5.1

16.1

5.0

4.1

3.5

Indonesia

-2.1

3.7

5.3

4.9

4.9

5.0

Kiribati

-1.4

7.9

1.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

LaoPDR

0.5

2.5

2.7

3.9

4.2

4.4

Malaysia

-5.5

3.1

8.7

4.3

4.2

4.2

MarshallIslands

-2.2

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.3

Micronesia,Fed.Sts.

-1.8

-3.2

-0.6

2.9

2.8

1.3

Mongolia

-4.4

1.6

4.7

5.2

6.3

6.8

Myanmara

3.2

-18.0

3.0

3.0

..

..

Nauru

0.7

1.5

3.0

1.0

2.0

2.5

Palau

-8.9

-13.4

-2.8

12.3

9.1

4.7

PapuaNewGuinea

-3.2

0.1

4.5

3.7

4.4

3.1

Philippines

-9.5

5.7

7.6

6.0

5.9

5.9

Samoa

-3.1

-7.1

-6.0

5.0

3.4

3.3

SolomonIslands

-3.4

-0.6

-4.1

2.5

2.4

3.0

Thailand

-6.1

1.5

2.6

3.9

3.6

3.4

Timor-Leste

-8.3

2.9

3.5

3.0

3