高盛-美国CPI、PCE及失业率等0712

11July2024|11:59AMEDT

USA:CoreCPIInflationSlowsto41-MonthLow;CorePCETrackingat20bp;JoblessClaimsNormalizeLower

BOTTOMLINE:JunecoreCPIrose0.06%month-over-month,14bpbelow

consensusandtheslowestpacesinceJanuary2021’swintercovidspike.The

compositionwasnotassoft,becauseairfaresandlodgingcontributed-8bptothecore.However,webelievemostofthestepdowninsheltercategoriesis

sustainable,andpriceincreasesalsoslowedforhealthcareservices,another

relativelypersistentcategory.JoblessclaimsdeclinedbymorethanexpectedintheweekendedJuly6.WetentativelyexpectcorePCEpricesrose0.20%inJune,in

linewithourpreviousassumptionandcorrespondingtoayear-over-yearrateof

2.60%.Thismorning’sCPIreportsupportsourviewthatnormalizingthefundsrateisbecomingreasonable,andwecontinuetoexpectthefirstcutinSeptember.

USMAP:

Initialclaims+2(2,+1)

Continuingclaims0(1,0)

KEYNUMBERS:

CPI(mom)-0.06%forJunevs.GS+0.11%,medianforecast+0.1%,prior+0.01%

CoreCPI(mom)+0.06%forJunevs.GS+0.21%,medianforecast+0.2%,prior+0.16%

CPI(yoy)+2.97%forJunevs.GS+3.17%,medianforecast+3.1%,prior+3.25%

_

CoreCPI(yoy)+3.27%forJunevs.GS+3.43%,medianforecast+3.4%,prior+3.41%

Initialclaims222kfortheweekendedJuly6vs.GS233k,medianforecast239k,priorrevised239k

Continuingclaims1,852kfortheweekendedJune29vs.medianforecast1,855k,priorrevised1,836k

MAINPOINTS:

1.JunecoreCPIrose0.06%month-over-month,14bpbelowconsensusandthe

slowestpacesinceJanuary2021’swintercovidspike.Theyear-on-yearratefell

0.13ppto3.27%,belowconsensusof3.4%.Thecompositionofthereportwasnotassoft,becausedeclinesinthevolatileairfares(-5.0%)andlodging(-2.0%)

categoriescontributed-8bptothecorereading(momsa)andbecausethepaceof

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AlecPhillips

+1(202)637-3746|alec.phillips@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DavidMericle

+1(212)357-2619|

david.mericle@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SpencerHill,CFA

+1(212)357-7621|spencer.hill@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonnieWalker

+1(917)343-4543|

ronnie.walker@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ManuelAbecasis

+1(212)902-8357|

manuel.abecasis@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TimKrupa

+1(202)637-3771|tim.krupa@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ElsiePeng

+1(212)357-3137|elsie.peng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JessicaRindels

+1(972)368-1516|

jessica.rindels@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachs

declineinusedcarprices(-1.5%)willlikelyslowlaterthissummer.Thatbeingsaid,

shelterinflationslowedsharply,withthepacefinallyreturningtopre-pandemicnorms(rent+0.26%vs.+0.30%averagein2019;owners’equivalentrent+0.28%vs.

+0.27%).Priceincreasesalsoslowedfurtherforhealthcareservices(+0.2%),anotherrelativelypersistentcategory.Inflationwasmixedacrosscoregoodscategories,withdeclinesinthenew(-0.2%)andused(-1.5%)carcategoriesbutstrengthinrecreationgoods(+0.4%),mostnotablypetproducts(+0.8%).Apparelpricesalsorebounded

modestly(+0.1%).Alsoofnote,carinsurancepricesreboundedbyabitmorethanweexpected(+0.9%vs.GS+0.5%)butthepaceremainswellbelowthatofthespring.

Non-housingservicesinflationwasagainweakat-0.06%.HeadlineCPIfell0.06%,asenergypricesfell2.0%andfoodpricesrose0.2%.

2.WetentativelyexpectcorePCEpricesrose0.20%inJune(momsa),inlinewithourpreviousassumptionandcorrespondingtoayear-over-yearrateof2.60%.WeestimatethatheadlinePCEincreased0.10%inJune,correspondingtoayear-over-yearrateof

2.49%.WeexpectcorePCEtobehigherthanusualrelativetocoreCPIbecausewe

estimatethatresidualseasonalityisworth+5bpinJuneoncorePCEandbecause

today’sCPIreportshowedlargeincreasesinafewcategories,suchascomputer

softwareandlegalservices,thathavealowweightinCPIbutahighweightinPCE.Wewillupdateourestimateaftertomorrow’sPPIdata.

3.Initialjoblessclaimsfellby17kto222kintheweekendedJuly6,belowconsensusexpectationsforamoremodestdecline.Thefour-weekmovingaverageofclaims

declinedby5kto234k.Claimsincreasedby7kinMichiganand2kinIndiana,and1kinWisconsinandNorthDakota,anddecreasedby3kinCaliforniaandNewYork,and2kinPennsylvaniaandTexas.Nationwidecontinuingclaims—thenumberofpersons

receivingbenefitsthroughstandardprograms—declinedby4kto1,852kintheweekendedJune29,roughlyinlinewithexpectations.

4.Thismorning’sCPIreportsupportsourviewthatnormalizingthefundsrateisbecomingreasonable,andwecontinuetoexpectthefirstcutinSeptember.

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11July20242

GoldmanSachs

Source:DepartmentofLabor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:DepartmentofLabor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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11July20243

GoldmanSachs

ThousandsThousands

270

260

250

240

230

220

210

200

190

180

270

SeasonallyAdjustedInitialClaims

260

250

240

230

220

210

200

190

180

Jan2022

Jan2024

AprJul

AprJulOctJanAprJulOct

2023

Source:DepartmentofLabor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

_

11July20244

GoldmanSachs

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,JanHatzius,AlecPhillips,DavidMericle,SpencerHill,CFA,RonnieWalker,ManuelAbecasis,TimKrupa,ElsiePengandJessicaRindels,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthe

firm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfrom

servingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhas

beenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonany

suchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicy

Statementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder

applicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldman

SachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe

_

securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research

Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

referredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybefore

investing.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@.ComplianceOfficer:AnilRajput|Tel:+912266169000|Email:anil.m.rajput@.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor

“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Further

informationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html

.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenotadvertisingasdefinedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonot

provideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspecificclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthefinancial

circumstances,investmentprofilesorriskprofilesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymatters

arisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdefinedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthis

researchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainfinancialtermsusedinthisreport,are

availablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.

EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)

11July20245

GoldmanSachs

(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis

implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment

recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofconflictsofinterestisavailableat/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingConflictsof

InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,The

InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommission

pre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-specificdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.

Globalproduct;distributingentities

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofficesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/or

contatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunicaçãocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanada

byGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanby

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNew

ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andinthe

UnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomof

Norway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritéde

contrôleprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarches

financiers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldel

MercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omvärdepappersmarknaden)

disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherrespectssupervisedbyGermanFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)andDeutscheBundesbankanddisseminatesresearchintheFederalRepublicofGermanyandthosejurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicAreawhereGSIisnotauthorisedtodisseminateresearch

andadditionally,GSBE,CopenhagenBranchfilialafGSBE,Tyskland,supervisedbytheDanishFinancialAuthoritydisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofDenmark;GSBE-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)subject(toalimitedextent)tolocalsupervisionbytheBankofSpaindisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSBE-SuccursaleItalia(Milanbranch)totherelevantapplicableextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianCompaniesandExchangeCommission(CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa“Consob”)disseminatesresearchin

Italy;GSBE-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch),supervisedbytheAMFandbytheACPRdisseminatesresearchinFrance;andGSBE-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch),toalimitedextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheSwedishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finansinpektionen)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden.

Generaldisclosures

Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatwe

_

considerreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotification.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.

GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC().

Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipal

tradingdesksthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.

Weandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployeeswillfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearch,unlessotherwiseprohibitedbyregulationorGoldmanSachspolicy.

TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyreflectthoseofGlobalInvestmentResearchandarenotanofficialviewofGoldmanSachs.

Anythirdpartyreferencedherein,includinganysalespeople,tradersandotherprofessionalsormembersoftheirhousehold,mayhavepositionsintheproductsmentionedthatareinconsistentwiththeviewsexpressedbyanalystsnamedinthisreport.

Thisresearchisfocusedoninvestmentthemesacrossmarkets,industriesandsectors.Itdoesnotattempttodistinguishbetweentheprospectsorperformanceof,orprovideanalysisof,individualcompanieswithinanyindustryorsectorwedescribe.

Anytradingrecommendationinthisresearchrelatingtoanequityorcreditsecurityorsecuritieswithinanindustryorsectorisreflectiveoftheinvestmentthemebeingdiscussedandisnotarecommendationofanysuchsecurityinisolation.

Thisresearchisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbe

illegal.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendationortakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituations,orneedsof

individualclients.Clientsshouldconsiderwhetheranyadviceorrecommendationinthisresearchissuitablefortheirparticularcircumstancesand,ifappropriate,seekprofessionaladvice,includingtaxadvice.Thepriceandvalueofinvestmentsreferredtointhisresearchandtheincomefromthemmayfluctuate.Pastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformance,futurereturnsarenotguaranteed,andalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccur.

11July20246

GoldmanSachs

Fluctuationsinexchangeratescouldhaveadverseeffectsonthevalueorpriceof,orincomederivedfrom,certaininvestments.

Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingfutures,options,andotherderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.InvestorsshouldreviewcurrentoptionsandfuturesdisclosuredocumentswhichareavailablefromGoldmanSachssalesrepresentativesorat

/about/publications/character-risks.jspand

https://www.fi/fia/regulatory-disclosures_1/fia-uniform-futures-and-options-on-futures-risk-disclosures-booklet-pdf-version-2018.

Transactioncostsmaybesignificantinoptionstrategiescallingformultiplepurchaseandsalesofoptionssuchasspreads.Supportingdocumentationwillbesupplieduponrequest.

DifferingLevelsofServiceprovidedbyGlobalInvestmentResearch:ThelevelandtypesofservicesprovidedtoyoubyGoldmanSachsGlobal

InvestmentResearchmayvaryascomparedtothatprovidedtointernalandotherexternalclientsofGS,dependingonvariousfactorsincludingyourindivi