货币金融学（第十三版）课件 英文第22章 总需求总供给分析

TheEconomicsofMoney,Banking,andFinancialMarketsThirteenthEditionChapter22AggregateDemandandSupplyAnalysisCopyright©2022,2019,2016PearsonEducation,Inc.AllRightsReservedPreviewThischapterdevelopstheaggregatedemand-aggregatesupplyframework,whichwillallowforanexaminationoftheeffectsofmonetarypolicyonoutputandprices.LearningObjectives(1of2)22.1Summarizeandillustratetheaggregatedemandcurveandthefactorsthatshiftit.22.2Illustrateandinterprettheshort-runandlong-runaggregatesupplycurves.22.3Illustrateandinterpretshiftsintheshort-runandlong-runaggregatesupplycurves.22.4Illustrateandinterprettheshort-runandlong-runequilibria,andtheroleoftheself-correctingmechanism.LearningObjectives(2of2)22.5Illustrateandinterprettheshort-runanlong-runeffectsofashocktoaggregatedemand.22.6Illustrateandinterprettheshort-runandlong-runeffectsoftemporaryandpermanentsupplyshocks.22.7Explainbusinesscyclefluctuationsinmajoreconomiesduringthe2007–2009financialcrisis.22.8Summarizetheconclusionsfromaggregatedemandandsupplyanalysis.BusinessCycleandInflationAggregatedemandandsupplyanalysisattemptstoexplainthebusinesscycleandinflationExpansionsRecessionsPotentialoutputOutputgapUnemploymentInflationFollowingtheFinancialNewsAmongthemoreimportantdatacollectedonbusinesscyclevariablesareRealG

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PIndustrialProductionUnemploymentRateTherateofinflationG

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IAggregateDemand(1of3)Aggregatedemandismadeupoffourcomponentparts:consumptionexpenditure:thetotaldemandforconsumergoodsandservicesplannedinvestmentspending:thetotalplannedspendingbybusinessfirmsonnewmachines,factories,andothercapitalgoods,plusplannedspendingonnewhomesgovernmentpurchases:spendingbyalllevelsofgovernment(federal,state,andlocal)ongoodsandservicesnetexports:thenetforeignspendingondomesticgoodsandservicesAggregateDemand(2of3)TheaggregatedemandcurveisdownwardslopingbecauseAggregateDemand(3of3)Thefactthattheaggregatedemandcurveisdownwardslopingcanalsobederivedfromthequantitytheoryofmoneyanalysis.Ifvelocitystaysconstant,aconstantmoneysupplyimpliesconstantnominalaggregatespending,andadecreaseinthepricelevelismatchedwithanincreaseinaggregatedemand.Meaningofthetermautonomous.Nowlet’slookatthefactorsthatcanshifttheA

DcurveFigure4LeftwardShiftintheAggregateDemandCurveFigure5RightwardShiftintheAggregateDemandCurveFactorsThatShifttheAggregateDemandCurveAnincreaseinthemoneysupplyshiftsA

Dtotheright:holdingvelocityconstant,anincreaseinthemoneysupplyincreasesthequantityofaggregatedemandateachpricelevel.AnincreaseinspendingfromanyofthecomponentsC,I,G,N

XwillalsoshiftA

Dtotheright.SummaryTable1FactorsThatShifttheAggregateDemandCurveAggregateSupplyLong-runaggregatesupplycurve:DeterminedbytheamountofcapitalandlaborandtheavailabletechnologyVerticalatthenaturalrateofoutputgeneratedbythenaturalrateofunemploymentShort-runaggregatesupplycurve:WagesandpricesarestickyGeneratesanupwardslopingS

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Sasfirmsattempttotakeadvantageofshort-runprofitabilitywhenpricelevelrisesFigure6Long-andShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurvesShiftsinAggregateSupplyCurvesShiftsinthelong-runaggregatesupplycurveThelong-runaggregatesupplycurveshiftstotherightfromwhenthereisAnincreaseinthetotalamountofcapitalintheeconomyAnincreaseinthetotalamountoflaborsuppliedintheeconomyAnincreaseintheavailabletechnology,orAdeclineinthenaturalrateofunemploymentAnoppositemovementinthesevariablesshiftstheL

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Scurvetotheleft.Figure7ShiftintheLong-RunAggregateSupplyCurveShiftsintheShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurveTherearethreefactorsthatcanshifttheshort-runaggregatesupplycurve:ExpectedinflationOutputgapInflation(supply)shocksSummaryTable2FactorsThatShifttheShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurveFigure8ShiftintheShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurvefromChangesinExpectedInflationandSupply(Inflation)ShocksFigure9ShiftintheShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurveFromaPersistentPositiveOutputGapEquilibriuminAggregateDemandandSupplyAnalysisWecannowputtheaggregatedemandandsupplycurvestogethertodescribemacroeconomicorgeneralequilibriumintheeconomy,whenallmarketsaresimultaneouslyinequilibriumatthepointwherethequantityofaggregateoutputdemandedequalsthequantityofaggregateoutputsupplied.Short-RunEquilibriumFigure7illustratesashort-runequilibriuminwhichthequantityofaggregateoutputdemandedequalsthequantityofoutputsupplied.InFigure8,theshort-runaggregatedemandcurveA

Dandtheshort-runaggregatesupplycurveA

SintersectatpointEwithanequilibriumlevelofaggregateoutputatandanequilibriuminflationrateatFigure10Short-RunEquilibriumFigure12AdjustmenttoLong-RunEquilibriuminAggregateSupplyandDemandAnalysisSelf-CorrectingMechanismRegardlessofwhereoutputisinitially,itreturnseventuallytothenaturalrate.Slow:Wagesareinflexible,particularlydownwardNeedforactivegovernmentpolicyRapid:WagesandpricesareflexibleLessneedforgovernmentinterventionChangesinEquilibrium:AggregateDemandShocksWithanunderstandingofthedistinctionbetweentheshort-runandlong-runequilibria,youarenowreadytoanalyzewhathappenswhentherearedemandshocks,shocksthatcausetheaggregatedemandcurvetoshift.Figure13PositiveDemandShockFigure14TheVolckerDisinflationChangesinEquilibrium:AggregateSupply(Price)Shocks(1of2)Theaggregatesupplycurvecanshiftfromtemporarysupply(price)shocksinwhichthelong-runaggregatesupplycurvedoesnotshift,orfrompermanentsupplyshocksinwhichthelong-runaggregatesupplycurvedoesshift.ChangesinEquilibrium:AggregateSupply(Price)Shocks(2of2)TemporarySupplyShocks:Whenthetemporaryshockinvolvesarestrictioninsupply,werefertothistypeofsupplyshockasanegative(orunfavorable)supplyshock,anditresultsinariseincommodityprices.Atemporarypositivesupplyshockshiftstheshort-runaggregatesupplycurvedownwardandtotheright,leadinginitiallytoafallininflationandariseinoutput.Inthelongrun,however,outputandinflationwillbeunchanged(holdingtheaggregatedemandcurveconstant).Figure15NegativeSupplyShockFigure16NegativeSupplyShocks,1973–1975PermanentSupplyShocksandRealBusinessCycleTheoryApermanentnegativesupplyshock—suchasanincreaseinill-advisedregulationsthatcausestheeconomytobelessefficient,therebyreducingsupply—woulddecreasepotentialoutputandshiftthelong-runaggregatesupplycurvetotheleft.Becausethepermanentsupplyshockwillresultinhigherprices,therewillbeanimmediateriseininflationandsotheshort-runaggregatesupplycurvewillshiftupandtotheleft.Onegroupofeconomists,ledbyEdwardPrescottofArizonaStateUniversity,believethatbusinesscyclefluctuationsresultfrompermanentsupplyshocksaloneandtheirtheoryofaggregateeconomicfluctuationsiscalledrealbusinesscycletheory.ConclusionsAggregatedemandandsupplyanalysisyieldsthefollowingconclusions:Theeconomyhasaself-correctingmechanismthatreturnsittopotentialoutputandthenaturalrateofunemploymentovertime.Ashiftintheaggregatedemandcurveaffectsoutputonlyintheshortrunandhasnoeffectinthelongrun.Atemporarysupplyshockaffectsoutputandinflationonlyintheshortrunandhasnoeffectinthelongrun(holdingtheaggregatedemandcurveconstant).Figure17FirstPhaseoftheGreatRecessionApplication:AnA

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SAnalysisoftheCovid-19Recession(1of4)WhenthecoronavirusbegantospreadexponentiallyinMarch2020andlockdownswereimplementedthroughouttheUnitedStates,theeconomydeclinedatthesteepestrateinU.S.history.Theaggregateoutputindexfallingfrom101.2inthefourthquarterof2019to90.0inthesecondquarterof2020,theunemploymentraterosefrom3.5%inthefourthquarterof2019to13%inthesecondquarterof2020andatthesametime,theinflationratefellfrom2.0%to0.4%.Figure19TheCovid-19RecessionApplication:AnA

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SAnalysisoftheCovid-19Recession(2of4)WhatisunusualabouttheresultingCovid-19recessionisthatitwastriggeredbyamassiveaggregatesupplyshockthatinducedamassiveaggregatedemandshock.ThelockdownsthatbeganinMarch2020ledtoproductionshuttingdowninmanypartsoftheU.S.economy.Theresultwasthattheshort-runaggregatesupplycurveshiftedupandtotheleftfromA

S2019:Q4toAS2020:Q2.Application:AnA

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SAnalysisoftheCovid-19Recession(3of4)Becausethelockdownsmeantthathouseholdswereunabletoventureouttostores,theysharplycutbacktheirspending.Inaddition,becauseitwashardtoknowhowlongthecoronaviruspandemicwouldlastandwhentheeconomymightreopen,uncertaintyincreasedgreatly,sobusinessesshelvedalotoftheirinvestmentplans.Uncertaintyandthecollapseinstockpricesalsofurtherreducedthewillingnessofconsumerstospend.Theresultwasalargedeclineinthequantityofaggregateoutputdemandedatanygiveninflationrate,sotheaggregatedemandcurveshiftedsharplytotheleft.Application:AnA

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SAnalysisoftheCovid-19Recession(4of4)Theeffectsofthesimultaneoussupplyanddemandshiftsleftuncleartheeffectonprices.Howeveranotherevent,apricewarbetweenSaudiArabiaandRussia,whichledtoadropinthepriceofoilfromaround$60abarreltolessthan$30perbarrelinthesecondquarterof2020ledtoaprecipitousdropinthepriceofoil.Thisactedasapositivesupplyshockthatoffsetsomeofthenegativesupplyshockfromthepandemic.Asaresult,theshort-runaggregatesupplycurveshiftedbylessthantheaggregatedemandcurve,andtheinflationratefellfrom2.0%inthefourthquarterof2019to0.4%inthesecondquarterof2020.AppendixtoChapter22:ThePhillipsCurveandtheShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurveThePhillipsCurve:thenegativerelationshipbetweenunemploymentandinflation.TheideabehindthePhillipscurveisintuitive:Whenlabormarketsaretight—thatis,theunemploymentrateislow—firmsmayhavedifficultyhiringqualifiedworkersandmayevenhaveahardtimekeepingtheirpresentemployees.Becauseoftheshortageofworkersinthelabormarket,firmswillraisewagestoattractneededworkersandraisetheirpricesatamorerapidrate.Figure1InflationandUnemploymentintheUnitedStates,1950–1969and1970–2019Source:

FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,F

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Ddatabase:/series/UNRATE;/series/CPIAUCSLFigure2TheShort-andLong-RunPhillipsCurveThreeImportantConclusionsThereisnolong-runtradeoffbetweenunemploymentandinflation.Thereisashort-runtradeoffbetweenunemploymentandinflation.TherearetwotypesofPhillipscurves,longrunandshortrun.ThePhillipsCurveAfterthe1960sTheexpectations-augmentedPhillipscurveshowsthatthenegativecorrelationbetweenunemploymentandinflationbreaksdownwhentheunemploymentrateremainsbelowthenaturalrateofunemploymentforanyextendedperiodoftime.Inflationjumpedupsharplywiththesharpriseinoilpricesin1973and1979andPhillips-curvetheoristsrealizedthattheyhadtoaddonemorefeaturetotheexpectations-augmentedPhillipscurve.Supplyshocksareshockstosupplythatchangetheamountofoutputaneconomycanproducefromthesameamountofcapitalandlabor.Thesesupplyshockstranslateintoinflationshocks.TheModernPhillipsCurvewithAdaptive(Backward-Looking)ExpectationsTocompleteouranalysisofthePhillipscurve,weneedtounderstandhowfirmsandhouseholdsformexpectationsaboutinflation.Onesimplemodelassumesthattheydosobylookingatpastinflation.Thisformofexpectationsisknownasadaptiveexpectationsorbackward-lookingexpectationsbecauseexpectationsareformedbylookingatthepastandthereforechangeonlyslowlyovertime.TheShort-RunAggregateSupplyCurveTocompleteouraggregatedemandandsupplymodel,weneedtouseouranalysisofthePhillipscurvetoderiveashort-runaggregatesupplycurve,whichrepresentstherelationshipbetweenthetotalquantityofoutputthatfirmsarewillingtoproducean