新常态下的中国消费-麦肯锡

Mcsey&company（单位：万亿人民币单位：百万户单位：千人民币p.p.）+0.9%+1.4%+0.0%+2.3%+0.9%+1.4%+0.0%+2.4%+0.4%+2.5%-0.5%1.可支配收入包括（税后）工资性收入、经营净收入、财产净收入和转移净收入，是总消费支出和储蓄的总和。2.包括日常消费、房贷及相关支出、车贷及相关支出、储蓄和调查投入。3.消费所占比重=消费支出（日常消费、房贷及相关支出、车贷及相关支出）/总支出（日常消费、房贷及相关支出、车贷及相关支出、投4.基于牛津经济研究院（OxfordEconomics）的估计。受访者比例（%），N=9,6672总体样本的46%更有信心总体样本的46%更有信心813缺乏信心320242.该调查包括经过“筛选”的问题，只收集了那些对近期政策变化较为了解的受访者的回答。受访者比例（%），N=17,11476%74%8%2023年调查2024年调查受访者比例（%），N=17,11467%63%29%25%8%8%2023年调查2024年调查一线二线三线四线一线二线三线四线乐观受访者比例1，（相比2023年2），N=1711467%中14.5-30.1K67%中14.5-30.1K中7.6-14.5K低<7.6K中5-7.6K-7%2.4%70%-4%79%-3%78%-4%收入Z世代E（18-25岁）E-5% 71% 64%25% 69%4%-35%D0%0%69%-15%47%D-6% 77% 83% 77% 77% -5% 71% 64%25% 69%4%-35%D0%0%69%-15%47%D-6% 77% 83% 77% 77% 74% 68%2%0%-8%-3%X世代65%68%-14%64%-7%-13%C-2% 75% 72%4%-7% 68%-15% 78%65%68%-14%64%-7%-13%C-2% 75% 72%4%-7% 68%-15% 78% 83% 78%-10%3%83%71%79%77%-18%60%-29%75%-6% 76% 66% 66% 73% 72% 68% 77%-18%60%-29%75%-6% 76% 66% 66% 73% 72% 68% 79% 80% 78% 81% 75% 78% 85% 75% 69%B-14% 74% 65% 80% 78% 69% 81%-20%-6%-9%-23%8%-15%-4%-9%-4%-14%-7%-1%-7%-8%-8%低3%-10%-3%-9%-4%-14%-7%-1%-7%-8%-8%低3%-10%-3% 79%-3%2.2% 73%-2% 73% 79%-3%2.2% 73%-2% 73%-2%83%-4%-9%-23%-9%-3%-28%-6%-10%-10%-9%-4%-8%78%63%63%74%74%82%54%54%81%81%79%80%80%83%83%82%82%82%9%88%87%9%9%88%87%9%71%63% 81% 84% 71%农村73%-12%37%6%-12%37%6%A-15%8%74%A-15%8%74%82%82%-5%-4%-4%+2% 71%78%-2% 75% 72%总计（按年龄）-5%-4%-4%+2% 71%78%-2% 75% 72%总计（按年龄）B：一线城市的富裕银发族E：城镇Z世代B：一线城市的富裕银发族E：城镇Z世代C：一线城市的中年富裕人群A：农村老年人D：一二线城市的低收入千禧一代2.乐观程度变化公式：2024年乐观群体比例-2023年乐观群体比例。4.指标考虑因素：合并了四线城市和农村地区42-57岁和58-65岁老年人群体，以考虑样本量限制。接受调查的各二级类别主要决策者所占百分比，共计11930名受访者1按二级子类别划分的接受调查的关键决策者所占百分比，N=17114按二级子类别划分的接受调查的关键决策者所占百分比，N=1711434%5.7%7.2%433934%5.7%7.2%4339992.7%26%5.0%35452.7%26%5.0%354590.5%2.4%29440.5%2.4%29443.7%30363.7%3036294629463.4%22603.4%22609926432643-1.5%2840-1.5%28400.8%21510.8%215126428%2.1%运动服装8%2.1%6%0.9%2.6%23436%0.9%2.6%23436%0.9%2.1%24416%0.9%2.1%24410.8%0.5%4%600.8%0.5%4%60-5%-0.5%-1.8%43-5%-0.5%-1.8%4324-10%-1.0%-0.1%42-10%-1.0%-0.1%4228-12%-0.5%-2.2%2040-12%-0.5%-2.2%20409322.增加是根据今天的实际