2024版全球风电成本回顾

CostofCostofWindEnergyReview:2024Edition风电成本回顾：2024DanielMulasHernandoNationalRenewableEnergyNovemberDanielMulasHernando202411PhotofromiStock- iStock‑627281636NRELNREL|NREL|ListofListofAcronymsand AnnualTechnology balanceof capital capitalrecovery U.S.Departmentof fixedcharge fiscal GovernmentPerformanceandResults hub Land-basedBalanceofSystem

netpresent NationalRenewableEnergy operationsand OffshoreRenewablesBalanceofSystemandInstallationTool OffshoreWindRegionalCost rotor U.S. weightedaveragecostof WindEnergyTechnologies

annualenergyannualenergyApplicableProject

ewablendmaintenanceewablesBalanceofnstallationTooldRegionalCostAnalyzerragecostofcapitalTechnologiesOffice

WindPlantIntegratedSystems

风力发电厂输入tegratedSystems levelizedcostof metersper ModifiedAcceleratedCostRecovery

andEngineering WindfarmOperations&Maintenancecost-BenefitAnalysisTool

ingerations&MaintenanceAnalysisToolExecutive ExecutiveExecutiveThe13thannualCostofWindEnergyReviewusesrepresentativeutility-scaleanddistributedwindenergyprojectstoestimatethelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)forland-basedandoffshorewindpowerplantsintheUnitedStates. Dataandresultsarederivedfrom2023commissionedplants,representativeindustrydata,andstate-of-the-artmodelingcapabilities. Thegoalsofthisanalysisaretoprovideinsightintocurrentcomponent-levelcostsandgiveabasisforunderstandingtheimpactsofmarketvariabilityonwindenergyLCOEintheUnitedStates.RecentU.S.offshorewindindustrystrikepricesexceedtheLCOEestimatesinthispublication.Slide43,titled“2023OffshoreWindReferencePlantLCOEEstimates,”outlinesseveralfactorscontributingtothesedisparities.Theprimaryelementsofthis2023analysis EstimatedLCOEfor(1)arepresentativeland-basedwindenergyprojectinstalledinamoderatewindresourceintheUnitedStates,(2)arepresentativefixed-bottomoffshorewindenergyprojectinstalledintheU.S.NorthAtlantic,and(3)arepresentativefloatingoffshorewindenergyprojectinstalledofftheU.S.Pacific UpdatedLCOEestimatesforrepresentativeresidential-scale,commercial-scale,andlarge-scaledistributedprojectsinstalledinamoderatewindresourceintheUnited SensitivityanalysesshowingtherangeofeffectsthatbasicLCOEvariablescouldhaveonthecostofwindenergyforland-basedandoffshorewindprojects UpdatedFiscalYear2024valuesforland-basedandoffshorewindenergyusedforGovernmentPerformance

第13届（LCOE） Dataand结果are导出from2023投产的 and The目标ofthis分 areto提 洞察into当前组件 成本andgivea基准了解市场波动对美国风电平准化度电成本（LCOE）近期美国近海风电行业罢工价格超过了本出版物中的LCOE估算。幻灯片 "《2023年近海风电参考电站LCOE估算》"概述了导致这些差异的几个因 元数 该2023 对（1）在美国中等风资源地区安装的一个代表性陆上风能项目的估计平准化度电成本（LCOE），（2）在美 对代表性住宅规模、商业规模和大型规分布式风项目在美国中等风资源地区安装的更新LCOE估计 敏感性分析，显示基本LCOE变量对陆上和上风能项目成本的影响范围− 用于政府绩效和成果法案（GPRA）报告的陆上和海上风能的2024财年更新值，并说明了实现已建立GPRA目标的进展。ResultsAct(GPRA)reportingandillustratedprogresstowardestablishedGPRA

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NREL|NRELNREL|NREL|KeyInputsKeyInputsandLevelizedCostofEnergyUtilityUtilityScale(FixedBottom)UtilityScaleWindturbine20100CapitalexpendituresFixedchargerate(FCR)OperationalexpendituresNetannualenergyLevelizedcostofenergy(浮式)(住宅)20100平准化电力成本（LCOENote:AdditionalinformationonthesourcesofdataarepresentedintheAppendix.Unlessspecificallystated,allcostdatapresentedinthisdocumentarereportedin2023U.S.dollars(USD).kW=kilowatt;MW=megawatt;MWh=megawatt-

2023（USD）报告。kW=千瓦；MW=兆瓦；MWh=兆瓦小时LevelizedCostBreakdownforReferenceLand-BasedLevelizedCostBreakdownforReferenceLand-BasedWindPlantNote:The“Contingency”costcategoryalsoincludesinsurance,permitting,bonding,andmarkupestimates.The“OperationalExpenditure” Note:The“Contingency”costcategoryalsoincludesinsurance,permitting,bonding,andmarkupestimates.The“OperationalExpenditure”includesmaintenancecost.Eng.=

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includesmaintenancecost.Eng.= NREL|LevelizedLevelizedCostBreakdownforReferenceFixed-BottomOffshoreWindPlantNote:The“ArraySystem”costincludescostsassociatedwiththeprocurementoftheinter-arraysystemcablesofanoffshorewindfarm.Install.=Installation.

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Note:The“ArraySystem”costincludescostsassociatedwiththeprocurementoftheinter-arraysystemcablesofanoffshorewindInstall.= NREL|LevelizedCostBreakdownforReferenceFloatingLevelizedCostBreakdownforReferenceFloatingOffshoreWindPlantNote:The“ArraySystem”costincludescostsassociatedwiththeprocurementoftheinter-arraysystemcablesofanoffshorewindfarm.Install.=Installation.

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Note:The“ArraySystem”costincludescostsassociatedwiththeprocurementoftheinter-arraysystemcablesofanoffshorewindfarm.Install.=Installation.

NREL|NREL|NREL|BOS=NREL|BOS=balanceofLevelizedCostBreakdownforReferenceDistributedWindProjectsNRELNREL|NREL|Key 主要结KeyThereferenceprojectLCOEforland-basedinstallationsis$42/MWh,witharangeofland-basedestimatesfromthesingle-variablesensitivityanalysiscovering$30–$61/MWh(seeSlide33).Thefixed-bottomoffshorewindestimateis$117/MWh,andthefloatingsubstructurereferenceprojectestimateis$181/MWh.Thesetworeferenceprojectsgiveasingle-variablesensitivityrangeof$76–$234/MWh(seeSlides46and47).ThisrangeisprimarilycausedbythelargevariationinCapEx($3,000–$9,187/kW)andprojectdesignlife.TheresidentialandcommercialreferencedistributedwindsystemLCOEareestimated$240/MWhand$174/MWh,respectively.Single-variablesensitivityanalysisfortherepresentativesystemsispresentedinthe2019CostofWindEnergyReview(Stehly,Beiter,andDuffy2020).AnalystsincludedtheLCOEestimateforalargedistributedwindenergyprojectinthisyear’sanalysis,estimatedat$80/MWh.

LCOE42/MWh，单变量敏感性分析得出的陆上估计范围为30–61/MWh（33）。要由CAPEX（3,000–$9,187/kW）和项目设计寿命的大幅变化引起。2019（StehlyBeiterandDuffy2020）中呈现。分析师在本年度分析中包含了大型分布式风能LCOE U.S.DepartmentofEnergyGoalsandReportingRequirementsLand-BasedWindEnergyOffshoreWindEnergyDistributedWindEnergy

1NRELNREL|NREL|TheCostofWindEnergyReview:2024Editionestimatesthelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)forland-based,offshore,anddistributedwindenergyprojectsintheUnitedStates. LCOEisametricusedtoassessthecostofelectricitygenerationandthetotalpower-plant-levelimpactfromtechnologydesignchanges.Itcanbeusedtocomparecostsofalltypesofgeneration. ThespecificLCOEmethodappliedinthisanalysisisdescribedinAManualfortheEconomicEvaluationofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyTechnologies(Short,Packey,andHolt1995):

背 《风能成本回顾：2024（LCOE） LCOE是一种用于评估电力生产成本以及技术设计变化对整个发电厂水平影响的指标。它可以用𝐶𝑎𝑝𝐸𝑥∗ LCOE（Short,PackeyandHolt𝐶𝑎𝑝𝐸𝑥∗𝐶𝑎𝑝𝐸𝑥∗𝐶𝑎𝑝𝐸𝑥∗

LCOE=levelizedcostofenergy(dollarspermegawatt-hourFCR=fixedchargerateCapEx=capitalexpenditures(dollarsperkilowattAEPnet=netaverageannualenergyproduction(megawatt-hourspermegawattperyear[MWh/MW/yr])OpEx=operationalexpenditures

𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸

LCOE=平准化电力成本（美元每兆瓦时[$/MWhFCR=固定费用率（CapEx=资本支出（[$/kWAEPnet=净平均年发电量（兆瓦时/兆瓦/年[MWh/MW/yr]OpEx=运营支出（$Thisreviewalsoprovidesanupdatetothe2022CostofWindEnergyReview(Stehly,Duffy,andMulasHernando2023)andexamineswindturbinecosts,financing,andmarketconditions.Theanalysisincludes:

背 EstimatedLCOEforarepresentativeland-basedwindenergyprojectinstalledinEstimatedLCOEforarepresentativeland-basedwindenergyprojectinstalledinamoderatewind估计一个代表性陆上风能项目在美国中等风资源地区安装（[IEC]IIb(i.e.,InternationalElectrotechnicalCommission[IEC]windclassIIb[IEC2020])intheUnitedEstimatedLCOEforrepresentativeoffshore(fixed-bottomandfloating)windenergyprojectsusingNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)modelsanddatabasesofgloballyinstalledprojects;theauthorsassessedrepresentativesitesontheU.S.NorthAtlanticcoast(fixedbottom)andPacificcoast(floating)usingcurrentleaseandcallinformation,nominationsdatafromtheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement,and2020]）估计代表性近海（固定底座和浮式）风能项目使用国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）模型和全球已安variousgeospatialLCOEestimatesforrepresentativeresidential,commercial,andlargedistributedwindenergyprojectsintheUnitedStatesSensitivityanalysesshowingtherangeofeffectsthatbasicLCOEvariablescouldhaveonthecostofwindenergyforland-basedandoffshorewindpowerplantsLCOEUpdatestothenationalsupplycurvesforland-basedandoffshorewindenergybasedongeographicallyspecificwindresourceconditionspairedwithapproximatewindturbinesizecharacteristicsProjectedland-basedandoffshorewindcosttrajectoriesfrom2022through2035usedforU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)annualwindpowerLCOEreportingasrequiredbytheGovernmentPerformanceandResultsAct |20222035（DOE）根据政府绩效和结果法案（GPRA）LCOEU.S.DepartmentofEnergyGoalsand

NRELNREL|NREL|DOEGoalsDOEGoalsandReportingEveryyear,theWindEnergyTechnologiesOffice(WETO)reportstheLCOEforland-basedwindandfixed-bottomoffshorewindtosatisfyGPRAreportingThisreportprovidestheunderlyingmarketandcostdataforWETOtofulfilltheannualGPRAreportingrequirements.UpdatestotheLCOEtargetsareperiodicallyimplementedtokeepperformancemeasurescurrentwithdevelopmentsinthemarket,incorporateimprovedcostandperformanceestimatingtools,andresetthedollaryeartominimizeinflationarypressuresonLCOE.InFiscalYear(FY)2023,newGPRALCOEbaselinevalues,costreductiontrajectories,andend-pointtargetswereestablishedforland-basedwindandfixed-bottomoffshorewind.

每年，风能技术办公室（WETO）都会报告陆上风电和固定式近海风电的平准化度电成本（LCOE），GPRAWETOGPRALCOE目标会定期更新，以使性能指标与市场发展保持一致，纳入改进的LCOE 2023GPRALCOEGPRARe-BaselineEffortsThenandThenewbaselineplantcharacteristicsarearefinementofthepreviousvaluesandwereestablishedusingupdatedbottom-upengineeringcostandperformancetools,expertwindindustryfeedback,andanalysisGPRARe-BaselineEffortsThenandThenewGPRAend-pointtargetsarebasedoncostreductiontrajectoriesforland-basedandfixed-bottomoffshorewindprojectsthatspanFY2023toFY2035,whereasthepreviousre-baselineanalyseshadatargetyearinFY2030.Theneedforfuturere-baselineeffortswillbeassessedperiodically,andre-baseliningwillbeimplementedasThetablesummarizesthemethodsandassumptionsofpriorGPRAtargetsandtheupdatedmethodsandassumptionsforFY2023GPRAtargets.

技术基准（ATB）的分析建立。GPRA新的GPRA终点目标基于陆上和固定式近海风电项目的成本降低轨迹，这些项目跨越了2023财年到2035财年，而先前的重新基准分析有一个2030财年的目标年份。新的GPRA终点目标基于陆上和固定式近海风电项目的成本降低轨迹，这些项目跨越了2023财年到2035财年，而先前的重新基准分析有一个2030GPRATheneedforfuturere-baselineeffortswillbeassessedperiodically,andre-baseliningwillbeimplementedasGPRA2023GPRALand-BasedLand-BasedFixed-BottomOffshorePriorGPRABaselineRe-BaselinePriorGPRABaselineRe-BaselineOperationDateMarketaverageturbineATBWindTurbineTechnology3(3.3MW,148mrotordiameter[RD],100mhubheight[HH])MarketaverageturbineATBConservativeScenario(12MW,214mRD,136mHH)()Marketcapacity-weightedaverage(2015USD)ATBConservativeScenarioBottom-upcostmodeling+BVGAssoc.innovationsreductions(Beiteretal.2016;Valpyetal.2017)CapExestimatedusingtechnologylearningsimilartoATB();OpExandAEPtrajectoriesinformedbyWiseretal.FinancemodelandmarketATBfinanceassumptionsinR&DcaseFixedchargeratemethodwithfinancingassumptionsbasedonEuropeanconditionsin2018FixedchargeratemethodwithfinancingassumptionsbasedonNorthAmericanconditionsin20227.25m/s@50mabovethe7.25m/s@50mabovethe8.43m/s@50mabovethe8.43m/s@50mabovetheCapacity40%(16.7%total46.8%(18.9%total48.6%(16.2%total48.7%(16.0%total固定式近岸风机horeGPRA（原GPRA（原Re-BaselineATB3兆瓦，148米转子直径[RD],100米轮毂高度[HH])() ATBConservativeScenario(12MW,214mRD,136mHH)()ATBConservativeScenarioBVGCapExestimatedusingtechnologylearning相似artoATBOpExandAEP轨迹ctoriesinformedbyWiseretal.ATB2018FixedchargeratemethodwithfinancingassumptionsbasedonNorthAmericanconditionsin20228.43m/s@50mabovethe48.7%(16.0%totalGPRACostGPRACostReductionPathwayFrom2023to2035forLand-BasedWind20232035GPRATheFY2023baselineassumesarepresentativewindturbineof3.3MW,148m(RD),100m(HH),andtheFY2035targetassumesaturbineof6MW,170m(RD),115mTheland-basedwindGPRAbaselinevaluestartsat$39/MWh(in2022USD)setinFY2023,usingthe2022referenceprojectTheland-basedwindGPRAtargetis$27/MWhbyFY2035(in2022USD)andisderivedfromtheanalysisconductedinthe2023AnnualTechnologyBaseline:

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TheFY2023baselineassumesarepresentativewindturbineof3.3MW,148m(RD),100m(HH),andtheFY2035targetassumesaturbineof6MW,170m(RD),115mTheland-basedwindGPRAbaselinevaluestartsat$39/MWh(in2022USD)setinFY2023,usingthe2022referenceprojectTheland-basedwindGPRAtargetis$27/MWhbyFY2035(in2022USD)andisderivedfromtheanalysisconductedinthe2023AnnualTechnologyBaseline:

NREL|GPRACostGPRACostReductionPathwayFrom2023to2035forFixed-BottomOffshoreWind20232035GPRATheGPRAbaselinevaluestartsat$95/MWh(in2022USD)setinFY2023using2022referenceprojectTheGPRAtargetis$61/MWhbyFY2035(commercialoperationsdate[COD]2034)(in2022USD)andisderivedforafixed-bottomwindplantatthereferencesitebasedon

TheGPRAbaselinevaluestartsat$95/MWh(in2022USD)setinFY2023using2022referenceprojectTheGPRAtargetis$61/MWhbyFY2035(commercialoperationsdate[COD]2034)(in2022USD)andisderivedforafixed-bottomwindplantatthereferencesitebasedonreductionsinformedbyindustrylearning(Shieldsetal.2022)andexpertelicitation(Wiseretal.2021).Notethatvaluesareroundedtothenearest

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reductionsinformedbyindustrylearning(Shieldsetal.2022)andexpertelicitation(Wiseretal.2021).Notethatvaluesareroundedtothenearest NREL|ModeledCostModeledCostReductionPathwayFrom2023to2035forFloatingOffshoreWindEnergy20232035DOEhasnoofficialGPRAreportingrequirementforfloatingoffshorewindenergyProjectedfloatingoffshorewindcostreductionsaremappedto$74/MWhinFY2035usingsimilarmethodologyasfixed-bottomoffshoreDOEestablishedaFloatingOffshoreWindShotgoalof$45/MWh(2020USD)by2035foradifferentreferencesiteusingadifferentsetofNotethatvaluesareroundedtothenearest

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DOEhasnoofficialGPRAreportingrequirementforfloatingoffshorewindenergyProjectedfloatingoffshorewindcostreductionsaremappedto$74/MWhinFY2035usingsimilarmethodologyasfixed-bottomoffshoreDOEestablishedaFloatingOffshoreWindShotgoalof$45/MWh(2020USD)by2035foradifferentreferencesiteusingadifferentsetofNotethatvaluesareroundedtothenearest

NREL|BaselineandBaselineandGPRACostReductionPathwayFrom2023to2035forLand-BasedWindEnergyGPRA（20232035 FiscalyearestimatesinformedbyprojectswithCODtheprioryear(FY=COD+TheFY2023baselineassumesarepresentativewindturbineof3.3MW,148m(RD),100m(HH),andtheFY2035targetassumesaturbineof6MW,170m(RD),115mForGPRAreporting,theFY2024$42/MWhLCOEwasdeflatedfrom2023USDto2022USDusingtheConsumerPriceIndexfromtheBureauofLaborandStatistics

COD（FY=COD+1）20233.3148（RD），100（HH），20356170（RD），115（HH）GPRA202442LCOE20232022（未注明日期）Forcomparison,theFY2030GPRAsetin2015inflatedfrom2015USDto2022USDusingtheConsumerPriceIndexfromtheBureauofLaborandStatisticsTheFY2023andFY2035LCOEestimatesareinformedbytheanalysisconductedinthe2023AnnualTechnologyBaseline:

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为了比较，20152030GPRA20152022（未注明日期）

NREL|GPRACostReductionGPRACostReductionPathwayFrom2023to2035forFixed-BottomOffshoreWindEnergyGPRACostReductionPathwayFrom2023to2035forFixed-BottomOffshoreWindEnergyTheFY2023(COD2022)LCOEis$95/MWhwithanFY2035(COD2034)GPRAtargetofTheFY2035targetisinformedbyindustrylearning(Shieldsetal.2022)andexpertelicitation(Wiseretal.ForGPRAreporting,theFY2024$117/MWhLCOEestimatewasdeflatedfrom2023USDto2022USDusingtheConsumerPriceIndexfromtheBureauofLaborandStatistics

TheFY2023(COD2022)LCOEis$95/MWhwithanFY2035(COD2034)GPRAtargetofTheFY2035targetisinformedbyindustrylearning(Shieldsetal.2022)andexpertelicitation(Wiseretal.ForGPRAreporting,theFY2024$117/MWhLCOEestimatewasdeflatedfrom2023USDto2022USDusingtheConsumerPriceIndexfromtheBureauofLaborandStatisticsForcomparison,theFY2030GPRAsetin2019andinflatedfrom2018USDto2022USDusingtheConsumerPriceIndexfromtheBureauofLaborandStatistics

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Forcomparison,theFY2030GPRAsetin2019andinflatedfrom2018USDto2022USDusingtheConsumerPriceIndexfromtheBureauofLaborandStatistics NREL|Land-BasedWind Land-BasedWindTurbineAverageNameplateCapacity,HubHeight,RotorLand-BasedWindTurbineAverageNameplateCapacity,HubHeight,RotorDiameter,andAssumedRepresentativeWindPlantAverageturbinenameplatecapacity,hubheight,androtordiameterforland-basedwindGraphicisbasedonnewinstallationseachSource:WiserandMillstein

AssumedwindturbinecharacteristicsforprojectWindturbine3.3Rotor148Hub100Windplant200NumberofPowercurvedataavailableonNREL|

Averageturbinenameplatecapacity,hubheight,androtordiameterforland-basedwindGraphicisbasedonnewinstallationseach

2023参数Windturbine3.3148100Windplant200Numberof NREL|ReferenceLand-BasedReferenceLand-BasedWindSiteCharacteristicsandPerformanceReferenceLand-BasedWindSiteCharacteristicsandPerformance AnnualaverageAnnualaveragewindspeedat50mabovesurface7.25Annualaveragewindspeedathubheight8.01Weibull2.0ShearGrossenergyGrosscapacityTotalNetenergyNetcapacity年平均风 在50米高 e7.25年平均风 8.012.0总能量捕 总容量系 WindresourceoftheUnitedStates,annualaveragewindspeedat100mabovesurface

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100

NREL|Land-BasedWindProjectComponentCostLand-BasedWindProjectComponentCostBreakdownTurbinecomponentcostestimatesarederivedfromrecentupdatestoNREL’sWindPlantIntegratedSystemsDesignandEngineeringModel(WISDEM®)/WISDEM/WISDEM.BOScomponentcostestimatesareobtainedfromtheLand-basedBalanceofSystemSystemsEngineering(LandBOSSE)model(Eberleetal.Constructionfinancingassumptionsarefromthe2024AnnualTechnologyBaseline

ValueWindTurbineBOSValueWindTurbineBOSEngineeringandProjectSiteaccess,staging,andAssemblyandElectricalWindturbineSoftConstructionWindturbineTotal

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TurbinecomponentcostestimatesarederivedfromrecentupdatestoNREL’sWindPlantIntegratedSystemsDesignandEngineeringModel(WISDEM®)/WISDEM/WISDEM.BOS（LandBOSSE）（Eberle2019）2024

ValueValueEngineeringandSiteaccess,staging,and

NREL|Land-BasedLand-BasedWindPlantOperationalExpendituresEstimateandHistoricalDataEstimatedEstimatedAll-inprojectOpExestimatesinformedbyupdatedanalysisconductedinthe2024AnnualTechnologyBaseline().

2024AverageO&Mcostsforavailabledatayearsfrom2000to2023,bycommercialoperationSource:WiserandMillstein(2024)Note:O&Mdatareportedinthechartdonotincludealloperatingcosts.

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AverageO&Mcostsforavailabledatayearsfrom2000to2023,bycommercialoperation

NREL|Land-BasedWindLand-BasedWindProjectFinancialNominalNominalRealCapitalrecoveryFixedchargerate固定费用率（FCRTheeconomicevaluationofwindenergyinvestmentsinthisanalysisusestheFCRmethodfromNREL’sAnnualTechnologyBaselineandStandardScenarioswebpage:.TheFCRrepresentstheamountofannualrevenuerequiredtopaythecarryingchargeasappliedtotheCapExonthatinvestmentduringtheexpectedprojecteconomiclifeandisbasedonthecapitalrecoveryfactor(CRF)butalsoreflectscorporateincometaxesanddepreciation.Theanalysisassumesthereferenceprojectoperatesfor25years,a5-yearModifiedAcceleratedCostRecoverySystem(MACRS)depreciationschedule,andaninflationrateof2.5%.

NRELFCRFCR（CapEx）的摊销费用所需的年度收入金额，它基于资本回收因子（CRF），但也反映了企业所得税和折旧。255（MACRS）2.5%Additionalfinancialassumptiondetailsaredisplayedinthe

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NREL|LCOELCOEforRepresentativeLand-BasedWindPlantandHistoricalDataWindturbine3.3CapitalFixedchargerateNetannualenergyCalculatedlevelizedcostof3.3固定费用率（实际净年能源产 计算出的平准化成 Estimatedlevelizedcostofwindenergyforactualwindprojectsbycommercialoperationdate.Source:WiserandMillstein

Modeledcostandperformancedatausingthemethodspresentedinthe2024AnnualTechnologyBaseline()tocalculateLCOE.NREL|

Source:WiserandMillstein

2024NREL|LCOEBreakdownforReferenceLCOEBreakdownforReferenceLand-BasedWindPlantNote:The“Contingency”costcategoryalsoincludesinsurance,permitting,bonding,andmarkupestimates.“OperationalExpenditure”includesmaintenance Note:The“Contingency”costcategoryalsoincludesinsurance,permitting,bonding,andmarkupestimates.“OperationalExpenditure”includesmaintenanceEng.=

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Eng.= NREL|RangeofRangeofLCOEParametersforLand-BasedNote:ThereferenceLCOEreflectsarepresentativeindustryLCOE.ChangesinLCOEforasinglevariablecanbeunderstoodbymovingtotheleftorrightalongaspecificvariable.Valuesonthex-axisindicatehowtheLCOEwillchangeasagivenvariableisalteredandallothersareassumedconstant(i.e.,remainreflectiveofthereferenceproject).

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Note:ThereferenceLCOEreflectsarepresentativeindustryLCOE.ChangesinLCOEforasinglevariablecanbeunderstoodbymovingtotheleftorrightalongaspecificvariable.Valuesonthex-axisindicatehowtheLCOEwillchangeasagivenvariableisalteredandallothersareassumedconstant(i.e.,remainreflectiveofthereferenceproject).

NREL|OffshoreWind 20232023MarketAverageOffshoreWindTurbineandRepresentativeWindPlantWindWindturbine12.0Rotor216Hub137Specific327Windplant600Numberof12.0216137327600Globalcapacity-weightedaverageturbinerating,hubheight,androtordiameterforoffshorewindprojectsin2023.Source:OffshoreWindMarketReport:2024Edition(McCoyetal.

RepresentativeturbineparametersandcurvesavailableonGlobalcapacity-weightedaverageturbineratingin2023was9.7MWastheglobalmarkethasbegunadoptingmachinesintherangeof12–15MW(McCoyetal.2024).Thefirstcommercial-scaleoffshorewindprojectsinstalledintheUnitedStatesselected11-MW(SouthForkWindandRevolutionWind)and13-MW(VineyardWindI)turbines.NREL|

2023Representative2023Representativeturbineparametersandcurvesavailableon◻20239.71215（McCoy2024）。The11（wind

能）13（I）

NREL|OffshoreOffshoreWindReferenceWindSitesandWindPlantPerformanceWaterExportcableWaterExportcableAnnualaveragewindspeedat50mAnnualaveragewindspeedathubheightShearGrossenergyGrosscapacityTotalNetenergyNetcapacityThefloatingoffshorewindreferencesiterepresentsthefirstleasesinCalifornia.WindresourceoftheUnitedStates,annualaveragewindspeedat100mabovesurfaceMapbyBillyJ.Roberts,NREL;moreinformationat/maps-

固定固定50kNREL|WindresourceoftheUnitedStates,annualaveragewindspeedat100mabovesurfaceNREL|MapbyBillyJ.Roberts,NREL;moreinformationNREL|Fixed-BottomFixed-BottomOffshoreWindSystemCapExComponentCostBreakdownBOSandsoftcostestimatesareobtainedwiththeOffshoreRenewablesBalanceofSystemandInstallationTool(ORBIT)(Nunemakeretal.2020).Referto/WISDEM/ORBIT.Note:Valuesroundedtothenearestdollar,and“Install.”indicatesinstallation.

ArrayExportOffshoreScourProjectLeaseSoftConstructionConstructionProcurementInstall.Total

BOSandsoftcostestimatesareobtainedwiththeOffshoreRenewablesBalanceofSystemandInstallationTool(ORBIT)(Nunemakeretal.2020).Referto/WISDEM/ORBIT.Note:Valuesroundedtothenearestdollar,and“Install.”indicatesinstallation.

ArrayExportOffshoreScourProjectLeaseSoftConstructionConstructionProcurementInstall.TotalRelativeRelativeValueofManufacturedComponentsforanOffshoreWindProjectTheU.S.DepartmentoftheTreasury(2023)issuedguidancelistingtheApplicableProjectComponents(APC)foranoffshorewindfacility.ThetableonthenextslideestimatesthepercentcostcontributionofeachAPCforarepresentativeoffshorewindproject.ItalsoprovidesamoredetailedlistofmajorcomponentsundereachAPCandestimatesthepercentcostcontributionofeachmajorcomponentintherepresentativeoffshorewindproject.Theserelativecostsarebasedonempiricaldata,NREL’sWindPlantIntegratedSystemsDesignandEngineeringModel(WISDEM®)(/WISDEM/WISDEM)andtheOffshoreRenewablesBalanceofSystemandInstallationTool(ORBIT)(/WISDEM/ORBIT).

美国财政部（2023）（APC）APCAPC这些相对成本基于经验数据，美国国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）的风电场NREL| NREL|RelativeValueofComponentsRelativeValueofComponentsforanOffshoreWindApplicableProjectComponentPercentCostContributionFromEachAPC(%)2MajorAPCPercentCostContributionFromEachMajorComponent(%)2ApplicableProjectComponentPercentCostContributionFromEachAPC(%)2MajorAPCPercentCostContributionFromEachMajorComponent(%)2PowerTubularmonopileTransitionTubulartransitionPersonnelaccessExportInsulatedArrayInsulatedOffshoreElectricalWindtower每个APCAPCPercentCostContributionFromEachMajorComponent(%)22Therelativecostcontributionsandlistofmajorcomponentsweredevelopedby3Monopilesandtransitionpiecescompriseseveraltubularsteelsectionsthatareweldedtogether,integrated,andthenfinished.Transitionpiecesarefurtheroutfittedwithpersonnelaccesssystemspriortoinstallation.Sometransitionpiecesmaybeintegratedwithamonopileinasinglefacility.4Apersonnelaccesssystemincludesinternalplatforms,externalplatforms,andboatlandings.5Theelectricalsystemincludestransformers,switchgear,shuntreactors(high-voltagealternatingcurrentvoltagedirectcurrentsubstationssubstationsvoltagedirectcurrentsubstations

NREL|

1海上风电APC2023）NREL3单桩和过渡构件由几段焊接在一起的钢

NREL|FloatingOffshoreFloatingOffshoreWindSystemComponentCostBreakdownBOSandsoftcostestimatesareobtainedwithORBIT(Nunemakeretal.2020).RefertoNote:Valuesroundedtothenearestdollar,and“Install.”indicates

ArrayExportOffshoreMooringProjectLeaseSoftConstructionConstructionProcurementInstall.Total

BOS和软成本估算使用ORBIT（Nunemaker等人，2020年） Note:Valuesroundedtothenearestdollar,and“Install.”indicates

ArrayExportOffshoreMooringProjectLeaseSoftConstructionConstructionProcurementInstall.TotalFixed-BottomFixed-BottomandFloatingOffshoreWindOpExEstimatesFixed-bottomandfloatingoffshorewindplantOpExestimatesarecalculatedwithNREL’sWindfarmOperations&Maintenancecost-BenefitAnalysisTool(WOMBAT)(HammondandCooperman2022).WOMBATisascenario-basedtool*thatusesadiscreteeventsimulationframeworktocalculatethecostsassociatedwithcomponentfailures,scheduledmaintenancetasks,andmobilizationofequipmenttocarryoutrepairs.OpExmodeling−30full-timetechniciansassumedperprojectinboth−Threecrewtransfervessels,onecablelayvessel,andonedivingsupportvesselperproject−Fixed-bottomsiteemploysaninsiturepair−Floatingcaseexecutesreplacementsthroughatow-to-portstrategy,whichisassumedtobelessexpensivethaninsiturepairs−FailureratesandcostsassociatedwithrepairsandreplacementsinformedbyCOREWIND(2021).*AccesstheWOMBATmodelon

FixedValueFloatingValueFixedValueFloatingValueLaborPortTotal

NREL|

NRELWOMBATHammondandCooperman2022)。WOMBAT*，它使用离散事件模−30每个项目在两个场站假设的全职技术人员− 人员转运船、一艘电缆铺设船和一艘潜水支援船− 用现场维修策略− 比现场维修成本更低− COREWIND(2021)。

ValueFloatingValue劳动力（技术人员设备（船舶

NREL|Fixed-BottomFixed-BottomandFloatingOffshoreWindProjectFinancialAssumptionsNominalNominalRealWeightedaveragecostofCapitalrecoveryFixedchargeThedatausedtocalculatetheweightedaveragecostofcapital(WACC)arecollectedbyNRELbasedonconversationswithprojectdevelopersandindustryfinanciersandprovidesabasisforWACCassumptionsfortherepresentativewindprojectin2022.TheWACC,CRF,andFCRaregiveninnominalandrealtermsusingtheafter-taxWACCdiscountrateof6.61%and4.01%,respectively,aprojectdesignlifetimeof25years,andanetpres