能效2025研究报告（英文版）-国际能源署IEA

Energy

Efficiency2025

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasand

coalsupplyand

demand,renewable

energytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,

energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityand

sustainabilityofenergyinits

32Membercountries,13Associationcountriesandbeyond.

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internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

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EnergyEfficiency2025Abstract

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Abstract

EnergyEfficiency2025istheIEA’sprimaryannualanalysisonglobalenergyefficiencydevelopments,showingrecenttrendsinenergyintensityanddemand,investment,employmentandpolicy.Thereportprovidessector-specificanalysisonindustry,buildings,appliancesandtransportandexploressystem-widethemessuchasemissionsreductions,energysecurity,affordabilityandcompetitiveness.Thisreportislaunchedinparallelwithanupdatetothe

IEAEnergyEfficiency

ProgressTracker

,whichcanbeaccessedthroughtheIEAwebsite.

EnergyEfficiency2025Acknowledgements

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Acknowledgements

EnergyEfficiency2025waspreparedbytheEnergyEfficiencyandInclusiveTransitionsOffice(EEIT)intheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS).ThereportwasdesignedanddirectedbyLucasBoehlé,togetherwithFedericoCallioni,whoco-ordinatedtheanalysis.SusanCopelandeditedthereport.

ThereportdrawsondatafromtheupdatedEnergyEfficiencyProgressTracker.ThiswasledbyNicholasHowarthandpublishedinparallelwiththisreport.SpecialthanksgotoJoelCouse,MarcCasanovas,RamizFarishta,ErenҪamandAlexanderBressers.WebdevelopmentfortheTrackerwasledbyJonCuster.

ThereportbenefittedfromanalysisanddraftingfrommanycolleaguesinEEIT,includingJulietteDenis-Senez,ElspethHathaway,MineIsik,ChrisMatthew,ShaneMcDonagh,EmmaMooney,JacopoPasqualotto,VidaRozite,DorianeSénatandFabianVoswinkel.OthercontributorsinEEITwereSophieAttali,CorineNsangweBusinge,GiuliaD’Agniolini,GinaDesombre,LisaMarieGrenier,AlinaHo,LucienHua,OrestisKarampinis,NamhyukKim,AlexandreLanglois-Meurinne,AnaLepure,AlbertoMaggi,PatrickMcMaster,LinusMehl,JackMiller,SungjinOh,KseniaPetrichenko,AudreyPoupon,MatthieuPrin,PetraPusztai,BrendanReidenbach,NaomiRossetti,ReneeStephens,ArdaTopalakci,andNivesDellaValle.JonathanSinton,KristinaKlimovichandCarolineFedrinefromtheEnergyEfficiencyHubalsoprovidedvaluableguidanceandsupport.ExternalconsultantsthatcontributedtotheanalysisanddraftingincludeIanHamilton,SimratKaurandEviWahyuningsih.

BrianMotherway,HeadofEEIT,andJérômeBilodeau,SeniorProgrammeManager,providedstrategicguidancetothereport.JaneCohenandMelanieSladegaveexpertadviceandmanagementsupport.KeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurity,providedexpertguidance.ValuablecommentsandguidancewereprovidedbyotherseniormanagementwithintheIEA,inparticular,TorilBosoni,LauraCozzi,DanDorner,PaoloFrankl,TimGould,TimurGül,DennisHesseling,PabloHevia-Koch,NickJohnstoneandSue-ErnTan.

OtherIEAcolleaguesthatcontributedvaluabledataandanalysistothereportandtheTrackerareStéphanieBouckaert,TanguydeBienassis,ElizabethConnelly,ChiaraDelmastro,AraceliFernandezPales,RolandGladushenko,MathildeHuismans,NatalieKauf,HaneulKim,MartinKueppers,MichaelMcGovern,ApostolosPetropoulos,ArthurRoge,RebeccaRuff,RichardSimon,OrsSumeghy,CeciliaTam,AnthonyVautrin,andDanielWetzel.

EnergyEfficiency2025Acknowledgements

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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DataandanalysisfromtheIEAEnergyDataCentrewasalsoinstrumentaltothereportandtheTracker,particularlyfromRobertaQuadrelli,AlexandreBizeul,ThomasElghozi,AgnieszkaKoscielniak,SuzyLeprince,ArnauRisquezMartin,AloysNghiem,AnnaSaguesMollaandAlessiaScoz.

ThereportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthesupportofJethroMullen,HeadoftheCommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO),andhisteamwhowereresponsibleforproductionandlaunchsupport,especiallyPoeliBojorquez,CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,LivGaunt,GraceGordon,JuliaHorowitz,OliverJoy,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,SamTarling,LucileWall,andWonjikYang.

MitsidiProjetosandPremiseprovidedanalyticalsupportofdifferentpartsoftheanalysis.TheUNEPCopenhagenClimateCentresupportedonthedistributionoftheGlobalESCOSurvey.BelénMuñozZuritaalsoprovidedanalyticalsupport.

ThisreportwasmadepossiblebyassistancefromtheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,Japan.TheItalianMinistryofEnvironmentandEnergySecurityisalsoacknowledgedfortheirsupportthroughtheircontributionstotheIEA’sDigitalDemandDrivenElectricityNetworks(3DEN)initiative.TheIEAgratefullyacknowledgessupportfortheTrackerfromtheCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme(CETP).

Peerreviewers

Manyseniorgovernmentofficialsandinternationalexpertsprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theirsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:

AfricanEnergyCommission

NicksonBukachiOngeri

AlfaLaval

AnnaHall

AmericanCouncilforanEnergyEfficiencyEconomy

SteveNadel

AppliedEnergyLtd

NickMeeten

AsianDevelopmentBank

DavidMorgado

AustralianEnergyEfficiencyCouncil

JeremySung

Canada,NaturalResourcesCanada

MattJones

CentreforEnergyPolicyUniversityofStrathclyde

AntoniosKatris

ClimateStrategy

PeterSweatman

ColombiaInteligente

JuanDavidMolinaCastro

Danfoss

JensTovgaard

DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater

LeonieWilson

E3G

LisaFisher,PedroGuertler

Energía,TecnologíayEducación,S.C.

OdonDemofiloDeBuen

EnergyEfficiencyinIndustrialProcesses

RodJanssen

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

EnergyEfficiencyMovementMikeUmiker

ENGIEFlorenceDufour

Euroheat&PowerEloiPiel

EuropeanCommission,DGENEREdytaNowak

Finland,MinistryofEconomicAffairsandTimoRitonummi

Employment

France,MinistryoftheEcologicalTransitionAngéliqueLequaiTransitionandTerritorialCohesion

GlobalESCONetworkAlexanderAblaza

IndependentConsultantAlisonPridmore

Japan,InstituteofEnergyEconomicsNaokoDoi

Mexico,MinistryofEnergyAdrianRuizCarvajal

NationalEnergyAdministrationChinaJunYang

OctopusEnergyFranBenson

OracleOpowerUtilitiesMarySprayregen

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandCorneliaSchenkDevelopment

PekingUniversity,InstituteofEnergyYangLei

PrayasEnergyGroupAdityaChunekar

RegulatoryAssistanceProjectSamuelThomas

RepublicofTürkiye,MinistryofEnergyandBilalDüzgün,

NaturalResourcesBoraŞekipGüray

RockyMountainInstituteWillAtkinson,AmoryLovins,

LaurensSpeelman,

ChiaraGulli

RoyalMelbourneInstituteofTechnologyAlanPears

SchneiderElectricSustainabilityResearchVincentMinier

Institute

SignifyPaoloCeccherini

SolarImpulseFoundationNathalieHemeleers

Spain,PermanentRepresentationtotheOECDDiegoVázquezTeijeira

SwedishEnergyAgencyCarlosLopes

TrinomicsJesseGlicker

UniversityPolitecnicodiMilanoLorenzoPagliano

UsersTCPSamuelThomas

WorldResourcesInstituteSumedhaMalaviya

WorldWideFundforNatureRichardScotney

EnergyEfficiency2025Tableofcontents

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 8

Chapter1:Globaltrends 12

1.1Currentprogress 13

1.2Recenttrends 18

1.3Acceleratingprogress 24

1.4Policies 31

1.5Investment 38

1.6Employment 45

Chapter2:End-usesectors 50

2.1Industry 52

2.2Buildings 59

2.3Appliances 66

2.4Transport 73

2.5Powersystems 79

Chapter3:Efficiencyandglobalenergypolicypriorities 84

3.1Emissionsreductions 85

3.2Energysecurity 89

3.3Affordability 92

3.4Competitiveness 96

EnergyEfficiency2025Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

Executivesummary

Globalenergyefficiencyprogressseesimprovementin2025,butremainsofftracktomeetglobalgoal

Globalenergyefficiencyprogressissettoimproveby1.8%in2025,upfromaround1%in2024.Preliminaryestimatesindicatethatseveralkeyregionsareshowingsomesignsofstrongerprogresscomparedtotheiraveragesince2019.Forexample,energyintensityprogressin2025isestimatedtobeover3%inthePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter“China”)andover4%inIndia,wellabovetheiraveragesintheyearssince2019.IntheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion(EU),ontheotherhand,progressin2025issettofalltounder1%afterseveralyearsofstrongerperformancefollowingtheenergycrisis.

TheworldremainsofftracktoachieveitsCOP28ambitionfor2030.In2023,nearly200governmentsagreedatCOP28inDubaitoworktogethertocollectivelydoubletheglobalaverageannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovementsby2030.However,globalenergyefficiencyprogress–measuredbytherateofchangeinprimaryenergyintensity–hasfallento1.3%peryearonaveragesince2019.Thisisjustoverhalfitslonger-termaverageofaround2%peryearintheperiod2010-2019,andwellbelowtheCOP28targetofa4%annualimprovementby2030.

Globalprimaryenergyintensityimprovement,2000-2025e,COP28doublingtarget,2030

Primaryenergyintensityimprovement

4%

(annualchange)

3%

2%

1%

0%

2000-092010-192019-25202020212022202320242025eCOP28

Doubling

Target

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:Primaryenergyintensity=totalenergysupplydividedbygrossdomesticproduct(GDP2021purchasingpower

parity).Animprovementisdefinedasareductioninenergyintensity.Greybarsdenotethecompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)fortheindicatedtimeframes;darkbluebarsshowannualgrowthratesinsingleyears.2025e=estimatedvaluesfor2025.

Source:IEA

EnergyEfficiencyProgressTracker

(accessedNovember2025).

EnergyEfficiency2025Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

Fourkeytrendsareholdingbackfasterprogress

1.Aroundtwo-thirdsofglobalfinalenergydemandgrowthsince2019hasbeenconcentratedinindustry,asectorwhereenergyintensityprogresshasslowedsharply.Industrialenergydemandgrowthhasacceleratedsince2019,whiletheaverageannualrateofindustrialenergyintensityimprovementfelltounder0.5%overthatsameperiod,comparedtoalmost2%lastdecade.Thisglobalshifttowardsmoreintensiveenergyuseinindustryisoffsettinggainsmadeinothersectorsandisweighingdownoverallefficiencyprogress.

2.Policieshavelaggedtechnologyprogress,leavingsignificantsavingsonthetable.Manyappliancesbeingsoldtodayareoftenonlyhalfasefficientasthebestavailablemodels.Astechnologieshavebecomemoreefficientinrecentyears,energyefficiencystandardshavenotprogressedatthesamepace.Forexample,theefficiencyofbest-in-classlightbulbsdoubledinthelast15years,whileminimumperformancestandardshaveonlygoneupby

30%.

3.Increasedaccesstoairconditionershaspushedupcooling-relatedelectricitydemand.Higherlivingstandardshaveallowedmorepeopletoaffordmuch-neededcoolingtechnologiessuchasairconditioners,especiallyinemergingeconomies.Infact,energyforspacecoolinghasseenthefastestgrowthofanyend-useinbuildingssince2000,growingover4%peryear.However,thisincreaseddemandhasbeenmetwithequipmentthatisnothighlyefficient,furtherstrainingenergysystemsatatimeofrapidgrowth.Ifeveryairconditionerboughtsince2019hadbeenthemostefficientavailable,theworldcouldhaveavoidedelectricitydemandgrowthequivalenttothedemandgrowthfromdatacentresoverthesameperiod.

4.Electricitydemandgrowthhasoutpacedrenewablesupplyleadingtoanoverallincreaseinlessefficientfossilfuelgeneration.Electricitydemandhasgrowntwotothreetimesfasterthanoverallenergydemandsince2019.Insomeregions,thisrisingdemandhasledtogreateruseofinefficientgenerationsources,placingupwardpressureonprimaryenergydemandandslowingenergyintensityprogress.

EnergyEfficiency2025Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

Efficiencyinvestmentandemploymenthavegrown,buthighercostsandlabourshortagesremainaschallenges

Globalenergyefficiency-relatedinvestmentissettoreachalmostUSD800billionin2025,growingby6%comparedtolastyearandover70%comparedto2015.However,insomecountries,publicsupportschemeshavedecreasedamidbudgetaryconstraints,whilematerialcostshaverisentoo.Forinstance,constructionpricesintheEuropeanUnionhaveincreasedover20%since2021.Geographicdisparitiesininvestmentsremaintoo,withtwo-thirdsofenduseinvestmenttakingplaceinChina,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,whilethefastestgrowthinthelast10yearshappenedinIndiaandSoutheastAsia.

Nearly18millionpeoplewereemployedinenergyefficiencyin2024aroundtheworld,butthesectorcontinuestofacelabourandskillsshortages.Overallefficiency-relatedemploymentincreasedover6%from2023to2024.MostefficiencyworkersareinChina,theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,butemergingmarketslikeIndiahaveseenarapidincreaseinrecentyears.Meanwhile,newIEAsurveysin2025highlightpersistentlabourshortagesandtheneedtoincreaseeffortstoattractandtrainworkers.

2025seesarenewedfocusonenergyefficiencyto

addressglobaleconomicandenergypolicypriorities

NewIEAanalysisshowstheimpactenergyefficiencypolicieshavehadonglobalenergypolicypriorities.Notably,withoutefficiencygainssince2010,todaysgreenhousegasemissionswouldbe20%higher,andenergyefficiencyremainsoneofthekeydriverstoloweremissionsinthefuture.

Efficiencyactionssince2000havereducedhouseholdenergybillsinadvancedeconomiesbyupto20%.In2025,severalmajoreconomiesputinplaceefficiencypoliciesspecificallylinkedtoenhancingenergyaffordability.Efficiencyhasalsoimprovedcompetitiveness,withindustriestodayproducing20%morevalueperunitofenergyconsumedthanin2000.

Efficiencygainshavealsoavoidedtheneedfor20%morefossilfuelimportsinIEAcountriesoverthesameperiod.Newdatashowsthatefficiencyactionsaccountedfortwo-thirdsofthegasdemandsavingsinEuropeanhouseholdsduringtheenergycrisis,enhancingitssecurityandstrategicindependence.

Thisroleofenergyefficiencyinwiderenergypolicygoalswasalsorecognisedatthe10thAnnualIEAGlobalConferenceonEnergyEfficiencyinJune.Participatinggovernmentsreaffirmedtheircommitmenttostrongerenergyefficiencyactionandparticularlyhighlighteditsroleasakeytooltoaddressenergyaffordability,qualityoflifeandindustrialcompetitiveness.

EnergyEfficiency2025Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

Toaccelerateefficiencyprogress,governmentsmustraiseambitionandclosepolicygaps

Governmentsimplementedover250neworupdatedefficiency-relatedpoliciesincountriesallaroundtheworldin2025.Thesecountriesrepresentover85%ofglobalenergydemand,comparedtocountriesaccountingfor70%oftotalenergydemandtakingefficiency-relatedpolicyactionsin2024.AheadofCOP30,over50countrieshavealsosetupdatedtargetsforenergyefficiencyintheirNationallyDeterminedContributions.Thesepoliciesformthebasisforfasterprogress,andcountriescanaccelerateefficiencyimprovementsintwoways.

First,governmentscanmovequicklytoraisetheambitionofexistingpolicies.Astechnologyimproves,manypolicieshavenotbeenkeptuptodate,andpolicyambitionvarieswidelyamongcountries.Insomecountries,forinstance,abuildingthatmeetsthelocalefficiencystandardmayinfactbeusingthreetimesasmuchenergyasoneinanothercountrywithasimilarclimate.Thereissignificantroomtoraisethebarandaccelerateprogressusingexistingandwell-provenpolicytools.Whenpolicyframeworksarealreadyinplace,thisrepresentsthefastestandeasiestwaytoaccelerateefficiencyprogress.

Second,thereremainimportantpolicygapstobefilled.Therearestillmanyareaswherepoliciesareeitherabsentorlimited.Forexample,aroundhalfofcountriesgloballystilldonothaveefficiencystandardsfornewbuildings,includinginregionsexperiencingrapidgrowth.Similarly,therearestillnomandatoryenergyperformancestandardsforindustrialmotorsintwo-thirdsofallcountriesglobally.Identifyingandclosingspecificpolicygaps,prioritisingwhereenergyuseandsavingspotentialarethehighest,canhelpcountriesaccelerateprogress.

EnergyEfficiency2025Chapter1:Globaltrends

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

Chapter1:Globaltrends

TheworldremainsofftracktomeettheCOP28targetofdoublingenergyefficiencyimprovementsby2030.Globalenergyintensityprogresssince2019isaround1.3%peryearonaverage,wellbelowthe2010-2019averageof2%peryear.Fourkeytrendshelpexplainwhyglobalenergyintensityprogressthisdecadeisstuckinlowgear:strongdemandgrowthandweakefficiencyprogressinindustry;policieslaggingtechnologyprogress;risingcooling-relatedelectricitydemand;andinefficienciesinpowergeneration.

Globalenergyintensityissettoimproveby1.8%in2025,upfromjustover1%in2024.Keyregionsthathaveshapedglobalprogressthisdecadeareshowingsignsofpotentialrecoveryin2025.Comparedtothepreviousdecade,bothChinaandIndiahaveseenaverageprogressthisdecadeslowdowntobelow2%.Preliminaryestimatesfor2025,however,suggestapossiblerecovery,withIndiasettoreachaprogressratejustabove4%thisyearandChinaaround3.5%.

Governmentsimplementedover250neworupdatedpoliciesrelatedtoenergyefficiencyincountriesallaroundtheworldin2025.Thesecountriesrepresentover85%ofglobalenergydemand,comparedtocountriesrepresentingaround70%oftotalenergydemandintroducingefficiency-relatedpolicyactionsin2024.ForCOP30,over110countriesalsoupdatedtheirNationallyDeterminedContributions,withover50ofthemsettingefficiency-relatedtargets.

EnduseinvestmentissettoreachalmostUSD800billiongloballyin2025,growingby6%comparedto2024.However,risingcosts,suchasrecentspikesininterestratesandhighermaterialcosts,mayhidelowerlevelsofactivity.Geographicdisparitiesinenduseinvestmentsremainaswell,withabouttwo-thirdsoftotalefficiency-relatedinvestmentoccurringinChina,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion.

Nearly18millionpeoplearoundtheworldwereemployedinenergyefficiencyin2024,markinganincreaseof6%from2023.MostefficiencyworkersareinChina,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,butemergingmarketslikeIndiahaveseenarapidincreaseinrecentyears.Theefficiencysectorcontinuestofacelabourandskillsshortages,whichcouldworsenincomingyearsifnotaddressedthroughimprovedtrainingandeducation.

Keypolicyactionscanhelpgovernmentsaccelerateprogress.Inparticular,policymakerscanraisetheambitionofexistingpoliciesandcloseremainingpolicygaps.

EnergyEfficiency2025Chapter1:Globaltrends

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

1.1Currentprogress

Globalenergyintensityprogressseesimprovementin2025butremainsofftracktoachieveCOP28ambition

Energyintensityistheamountofprimaryenergyrequiredperunitofeconomicoutput(GDP).WhenenergyusegrowsmoreslowlythanGDP,globalenergyintensitydeclines,indicatinganimprovement.Globalprimaryenergyintensity,the

mainindicator

usedtotracktheenergyefficiencyoftheeconomy,isexpectedtoimproveby1.8%in2025,anuptickfromaround1%in2024.Thisyearsimprovementreflectsslowingenergydemandgrowth,fromjustover2%in2024to1.3%in2025,amidstresilientbutstill

relativelysubdued

economicgrowth,continuingatjustover3%.

In2023,at

COP28

inDubai,nearly200governmentsagreedtoworktogethertocollectivelydoubletheglobalaverageannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovementsandtriplerenewableenergycapacitygloballyby2030,aspartofajust,orderlyandequitabletransitionawayfromfossilfuelsinenergysystems.Whileprogressonrenewableenergycapacityis

expectedtoreach2.6timesits

2022levelby2030

,overallprimaryenergyintensityprogresshasfallento1.3%peryearonaveragesince2019,justoverhalfitslonger-termaverage(2010-19)ofaround2%,insteadofacceleratingtowards4%peryear.Asaresult,theworldisnotontrackyettoreachits2030ambition.

Primaryenergyintensityimprovement,2000-2025e,COP28doublingtarget,world,2030

Primaryenergyintensityimprovement

4%

(annualchange)

3%

2%

1%

0%

2000-092010-192019-25202020212022202320242025eCOP28

Doubling

Target

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:Primaryenergyintensity=totalenergysupplydividedbygrossdomesticproduct(GDP2021purchasingpower

parity).Animprovementisdefinedasareductioninenergyintensity.Greybarsdenotethecompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)fortheindicatedtimeframes;darkbluebarsshowannualgrowthratesinsingleyears.2025e=estimatedvaluesfor2025.

Source:IEA(2025),

EnergyEfficiencyProgressTracker

(accessedNovember2025).

EnergyEfficiency2025Chapter1:Globaltrends

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|14

ResilientenergydemandgrowthcoupledwithslowingGDPhaspusheddownintensityprogressthisdecade

Overthefirst20yearsofthiscentury,globalenergyintensityprogressfollowedasteadyprogression,acceleratingfromanaverageofaround1%peryearfrom2000to2010toabout2%peryearfrom2010to2019.Thiswasdrivenbyslowergrowthintotalenergysupplyintheperiod2010-19thanin2000-10,whileeconomicgrowthwasrelativelysimilar.Thisriseinglobalefficiencyprogressin2010-19sawtheamountofprimaryenergygrowthneededtofueleachextra1%ofgrowthingrossdomesticproduct(GDP)fallfrom0.7%to0.4%,apositivetrend.Thisprogressledto

multiplebenefits

,suchasstrengthenedenergysecurityandreducedCO2emissions.

However,sincetheCovid-19pandemic,ratherthandoublingtowards4%,averageglobalefficiencyprogresshasfallento1.3%peryearintheperiod2019-25.Thisistheresultofthefactthat,overthisperiod,theaveragerateofglobaleconomicgrowthslowedtoabout2.8%peryear,whichisbelowthe3.4%averageannualgrowthbetween2010and2019.Atthesametime,totalenergysupplycontinuedtogrowat1.4%peryearonaveragein2019-25