房地产 -2025年第三季度珀斯零售数据 Perth Retail Figures Q3 2025

CBRE

FIGURESIWARETAILlQ32025

bumper2024

1.8%

WApopulationGrowth2025-261DeloitteAccessEconomics

21.7%

CBDvacancyRate,H125

6.13%

Regionalcentreyield

3.5%

LargeFormatRetailFaceRentGrowthy-o-y

Note:Arrowsindicatechangefrompreviousquarter.

FIGURE1:westernAustraliaMonthlyHouseholdspending,seasonallyadjusted

keypoints

-MonthlyhouseholdexpenditureinwesternAustraliaremainsrobust,rising8.2%y-0-y(seasonallyadjusted)asofAugust2025,drivenbyinfrastructureinvestmentsanddemographictrends.

-RetaildevelopmentsupplyremainedsubduedinQ32025,withc.21,300sqmoftotalsupply

anticipatedfortheyear.Neighbourhoodcentresareontracktomakeupnearly60%ofthistotal.

-superprimecBDincentiveshavedecreasedtoanaverageof17.5%from25.0%ayearago,leadingtoaverageneteffectiverentgrowthof3.1%q-o-qand10.0%y-0-y.

-Largeformatretailnetfacerentsincreased1.1%q-0-qand3.3%y-0-ytoanaverageof$250/sqm.populationgrowth,tightsupplyandstrongperformanceinthetop-tiercentresaredrivinggrowth.

-Regionalcentrenetfacerentsremainedstableq-0-qbutincreasedby3.3%y-0-ytoreachanaverageof$1,384/sqm.

+8.2%

year-on-yeartoAugust25

+0.3%

Month-on-MonthtoAugust25

-MostretailassetyieldswerestableinQ32025,butregionalcentreyieldsfellby13bpq-o-qand14bpsy-o-y,whilelargeformatretailyieldsdroppedby5bpq-o-qand11bpy-0-y.

-Afterarecord$2bilioninretailinvestmenttransactionsin2024,2025hasseenamoresubduedtotalof$379millionyTD(fortransactions2$5million).

source:ABS,CBREResearch

Economicoverview

short-termeconomicfactorsaresupportingAustralia'seconomicgrowth

InQ22025,Australia'sGDPgrewby0.6%q-o-q(seasonallyadjusted,chainvolumemeasures)and1.8%y-o-y.Despiteunderlyingsoftness,thisgrowthwasfuelledbyrobustretaildiscounting,holidaytimingandspendingrelatedtotheFederalelection·publicinvestmentwasthemainobstacletoexpansion,whereasnettradeprovidedamodestboost,largelydrivenbyexportsofminingcommodities·

westernAustralia'SGspisestimatedtohavegrownby0.5%inrealtermsforthe202425FY,withaforecastof2.5%growthfor2025-26and3.0%for2026-27.Althoughthestate'sdomesticeconomyshowedstablegrowth,theexportsectorfacedchallengesduetounfavourableweatherandlow

globaldemand.Goingforward,thecombinationoftaxcuts,energybillreliefandinterestratereductionsislikelytostimulateconsumerspendingandbusinessinvestment.

RetailsalesgrowthinWAremainsbuoyant

HouseholdexpenditureinwAperformedstrongly,surgingby8.2%y-o-yinAugust2025,witha0.3%m-o-mincrease.Therisewasbroad,withsolidperformanceacrossmostcategories,particularly

householdgoods.Monthlyspendingontransport(+2.5%)andfood(+0.7%)sawnoticeablegrowth,aswesternAustraliansprioritisedessentialservicesandmobility.

FIGURE2:WAHouseholdspendingy-o-ybycategory(seasonallyadjusted)

WA'sjobsmarketremainshistoricallystrong

InAugust2025,theWAlabourmarketshowedamixedpicture,withemploymentdecreasingby15,400jobsbutstill1.2%y-o-yhigher·Theunemploymentratedroppedto3.8%(seasonallyadjusted),thelowestinmainlandAustralia,andbelowthenationalaverageof4.2%andthelong-termaverageof5.3%.DespitethejoblossesinAugust,thestate'semployment-to-populationratioremainedthehighestinthecountry,reflectingastronglong-termcommitmenttotheworkforce·

FIGURE3:unemploymentRatebystate(%)(seasonallyadjusted)

Thestateisexperiencingthefastestpopulationgrowthinthecountry,drivenbyastrongjobmarket

andasurgeinbothinternationalandinterstatemigration.AccordingtothelatestdatafromtheABS,

WA'spopulationgrewby2.3%y-o-yinQ12025,surpassingthenationalgrowthrateof1.6%y-0-y.keyindustriessuchasmining,healthcare,constructionandeducationarefuellingthisgrowth,whileperth'slifestyleappealandlowercostoflivingcontinuetodrawpeoplefromotherstateslikeNswandTAS.

Thisdemographicmomentumisreinforcingeconomicexpansionandboostingdemandacrosshousing,retailandinfrastructuresectors

supply

Risingconstructioncostsaresettocurbretailsupplyintheshortrun

NewretaildevelopmentsupplyrecordedoverQ32025remainedmutedwithnomajor

completions.Retailsupplyinperthhasbeenlowwithanaverageofjustc.32,000sqmper

annumrecordedover2022-2024,wellbelowthe10-yearaverageofc.102,200sqm(for

developmentsz3,000sqm).Retailsupplyfor2025isalsoexpectedtobebelowhistoriclevels,withc.21,300sqmexpectedasofQ32025,mainlyintheneighbourhoodcentrecategory.The

2025pipelinealsoincludesc.4.000sqmofadditionalspacefromthesubregionalkardinya

shoppingcentreRedevelopmentstage2works,whichisscheduledtoopenaroundDecember2025.

supplyvolumesarepoisedtopickupin2026and2027,butmuchofthispipelineisstillinthedevelopmentapprovalstage.Thismeansthatwhilethereispotentialforasurgeinnew

projects,manymayfacedelaysorcancellationsduetothecurrenthighfinancingand

constructioncosts.Theseeconomicheadwindsarepromptingdeveloperstoreassess

feasibility,andunlessmarketconditionsimprove,particularlyintermsofinterestratesandbuildcosts,someprojectsmaynotproceedtoconstructioninthenearterm.AsofQ32025,onlyc.25%ofthe2026developmentpipelinehadcommencedconstruction.

vacancy

perth'SCBDretailvacancysawaminorimprovement,droppingby42bpto21.7%inH12025,markingthelowestvacancyraterecordedsincetheseriesbeganinH12021.Theratehas

declinedby480bpsinceitpeakedat26.5%inH12022,thankstoacombinationofsteady

returntooffice-basedwork,increasedfoottraffic,agrowingpresenceofpremiumbrandsandimprovedconsumersentiment.perth'SCBDvacancyratesimprovedintheretailstripsand

centres,whilearcadesexperiencedanincreaseinH12025.

FIGURE4:WARetailsupplypipeline

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE5:perthcBDvacancybyperiod

source:CBREResearch

Rentalperformance

Regionalcentresareleveragingperth'sdemographicboomtofuelstrongrentalgrowth

InQ32025,largeformatretailcentreshavecontinuedtoseethestrongestrentgrowthoverthepastyear,withnetfacerentsrisingby1.1%q-o-qand3.5%y-o-ytoanaverageof$250/sqm.TheLFRcategoryhasoutperformedthewidermarketsincethepandemic,spurredbyitsdefensivecharacteristics,robustpopulationgrowththatsupportedretailsalesgrowthofhouseholdgoodsandanimprovedtenantmixfromLFRoperatorsanddevelopers.

Incontrast,superprimecBDnetfacerentswerestableqmmmmqandymmmmy,averaging$2,830/sqm.

However,effectiverentalgrowthhasbeennotableduetoreducedincentives,attributedto

tighteningvacancyratesalongthesuperprimeMurraystreetMallstrip.AveragecBDsuper

primeincentiveshavefallento17.5%from25.0%ayearago,resultingineffectiverentalgrowthof3.1%q-o-qand10.0%y-o-y.vacancyalongMurraystreetMallhastightenedfurtherwiththeintroductionofinternationalanchortenantsandtherelocationofluxurybrandstothewesternendofthemall.

Moreover,perthcontinuestoleadthenationinofficeoccupancyrates,whichisboostingretailspendingandrevitalisingthecBD.TheupcomingopeningoftheEdithcowanuniversity(ECU)campusinthecBDforthefirstsemesterof2026offersanoptimisticoutlookforcBDretail.Thecampusisexpectedtoattractover8,100studentsand1,100staff,whichshouldenhancefoot

traffic,accordingtoECU.

Regionalcentresinperthareseeingsolidrentalgrowthunderpinnedbytightsupplyand

ongoingpopulationgrowth.Toptierregionalcentreslikekarrinyupandwestfieldcarouselareoutperformingothers,benefitingfromhighfoottrafficandpremiumtenantmixes.Asan

example,inMay2025,karrinyupbecamethefirstwAshoppingcentretosurpass$1billioninannualsales,attractingover13.4millionvisitorsin2024.Neteffectiverentsacrossperth's

regionalcentresincreasedby3.3%q-0-qand6.8%y-o-ytoanaverageof$1,073/sqm.

FIGURE6:RetailRentsandIncentivesbycategory

CBDsuperprime

2,830

stable

stable

17,5%

250bp

750bp

2,335

+3.1%

+10.0%

Regionalsc

1,384

stable

+3.3%

22.5%

250bp

250bp

1,073

+3.3%

+6.8%

subRegionalsc

721

stable

+0.9%

25%

stable

stable

541

stable

+0.9%

Neighbourhoodsc

655

stable

stable

22%

stable

stable

511

stable

stable

LargeFormatRetail

250

+1.1%

+3.5%

15%

stable

stable

212

+1.1%

+3.5%

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE7:NetFaceRentGrowth,bycategory

4.0%

3.5%●

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%●

0.5%

0.0%CBDsuperprimeRegionalcentressub-RegionalNeighbourhoodLargeFormatRetailcentrescentres

Q-O-QY-O-Y

source:CBREResearch

Investment

Transactionvolumeshavedroppedin2025afterarecord-breakingyearin2024

Fuelledbyregionalandsubregionalcentres,WA'sretailinvestmenttransactionvolumeshita

record$2billionin2024,asinvestorsflockedtotheretailsector.strongfundamentals,likelimitedsupply,robustpopulationgrowthdrivingdemandandrisingrents,havekeptinvestorinterest

high.However,transactionvolumessoftenedinH12025,totallingc.$379myTD(fortransactions之$5m)afterthe2024recordperformance.

NoteworthyretailtransactionsinQ32025include:

JoondalupGate,apremierlarge-formatretailcentreinEdgewater,soldfor$79.1minAugust2025tosydneybasedinvestmentfirmAsheMorgan·

Brightonvillageshoppingcentre(neighbourhoodcentre)inButlersoldfor$25.3minlateseptember2025fromISPTtoTrilogyFunds.

Despiteelevatedconstructionandfinancingcosts,thelongmmtermoutlookremainspositive,withinvestorsdrawntowA'sresilienteconomy,strategicdevelopmentopportunitiesand

demographicmomentum.

yields

Ratecutstriggeryieldcompressioninregionalandlargeformatretail

yieldsformostretailassetsremainedstableduringQ32025.However,yieldsforregionalcentresdecreasedby13bpq-0-qand14bpy-o-y.Largeformatretailyieldsfellby5bpq-o-qand11bpyo-y.TheRBA'scashratewascutinAugust2025by25bpto3.60%,markingthethirdreductionoftheyear,followingcutsinFebruaryandMaythatcontributedtothetightening.Asborrowing

costsdecline,investordemandforincomegeneratingassetshasintensified,leadingtoincreasedcompetition.yieldcompressionissettoaccelerateintolate2025toearly2026asinterestrateseaseanddealflowpicksup.

FIGURE8:WARetailTransactionsbycategoryandyear

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE9:WARetailyieldbycategoryandyieldchange

source:CBREResearch

contact-Research

katyaEzhova

ResearchAnalyst

+61421547176

katya.ezhova@cbre.com

EzaRanjbar

AssociateDirector,WA+61425225915

eza.ranjbar@cbre.com

kateBailey

HeadofRetailandAlternativesResearch+61438528352

kate.bailey@cbre.com

sameerchopra

HeadofResearch,pacificandESGAPAC+61422242830

sameer.chopra@cbre.