2025年第四季度全球房地产趋势与策略报告：机遇与风险分析（英文版）-Nuveen

4Q2025

Globaltrendsandtactics

Realestateopportunitiesandrisksinthecurrentenvironment

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

NOTFDICINSURED|NOBANKGUARANTEE|MAYLOSEVALUE

Tableofcontents

3

Europe

2

U.S.

1

Global

overview

4

Asia

Pacific

Clicktogodirectlytosectionofinterest

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

Globaltrendsandtactics

2

3

Globaltrendsandtactics

1

Globaloverview

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

4

Globaltrendsandtactics

Globalrealestatereturnspositivelast5quarters

Followingatwo-yearreset,globalprivaterealestatevalueshavetickedupforfiveconsecutivequarters.Duetorealestate’sstableincomereturncomponent,totalreturnshavenowbeenpositiveforfiveconsecutivequarters.

Globalunleveredquarterlyreturns

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-5%

IncomereturnCapitalgrowthTotalreturn

21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q2

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q22025dataasof6Sep2025datarelease);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

5

Globaltrendsandtactics

Valuesarereboundinginmostmarkets

Globally,valueshavetickedupineachofthelastfivequarters.MostofthecountriesacrossEuropearenowbeginningtoshowmeaningfulvalueincreases.InAsiaPacific,AustraliahasstabilizedwhileJapanandKoreamoderate.IntheAmericas,U.S.valuesaretrendingupbutvaluesinCanadaarestilladjustingdownward.

Propertyvalueindex,Q22022-Q22025(Q22022=100)AsiaPacificEuropeAmericas

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q22025dataasof6Sep2025datarelease);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:Global|U.S.|Europe|APAC

6

Globaltrendsandtactics

ReturnspositiveacrossallcountriesinQ2

Inthesecondquarter,all21countriesintheMSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndexdeliveredpositivetotalreturnsforinvestors.Wearebeginningtoseeconsistencyinthisdata—overeachofthelastfourquarters,atleast20

countrieshavegeneratedpositivetotalreturns.Valuesfellin3ofthe21,butthereturnfromincomemorethanoffsetthefallinprices.

Quarterlyreturnsacrosscountries(Q22025)

3%

IncomereturnCapitalgrowthTotalreturn

2%

1%

0%

-1%

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q22025dataasof6Sep2025datarelease);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

7

Globaltrendsandtactics

Returnspositiveinnearlyallmarketsegments

Inthesecondquarter,outof50availablecountryandsectorcombinations,allbutoneproducedpositivetotalreturns.

Quarterlyreturnsacrosscountriesandpropertytypes(Q22025)

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

ResidentialIndustrialOfficeRetail

GermanyOff

CanadaOff

FranceRes

CanadaRes

USAOff

SouthKoreaInd

UKOff

IrelandOff

FranceOff

CanadaInd

JapanInd

GermanyRet

USAInd

UKRes

NetherlandsRet

FranceRet

GermanyRes

Belgium/LuxOff

AustraliaOff

JapanOff

NetherlandsOff

SouthernEuropeOff

FranceInd

USARes

CanadaRet

AustraliaRet

Cent/EEuropeInd

NetherlandsInd

Belgium/LuxRet

GermanyInd

AustraliaInd

SingaporeInd

NordicRet

UKRet

UKInd

NordicRes

USARet

Belgium/LuxInd

NordicOff

SouthKoreaOff

IrelandRes

JapanRes

NordicInd

IrelandInd

Cent/EEuropeRet

SouthernEuropeRes

SouthernEuropeInd

SouthernEuropeRet

NetherlandsRes

IrelandRet

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q22025dataasof6Sep2025datarelease);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

Note:Central/EasternEuropeanofficedidnothavedatafor25Q1andthusisnotrepresented.OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

8

Globaltrendsandtactics

Transactionvolumesarestartingtopick-up

Overthetrailingyear,investmentvolumesforincome-producingpropertytotaled$739billionacrosstheU.S.,Europe,andAsiaPacific,whichwasa19%increaserelativetothesameperiodlastyear.

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Q12019-Q22025Investmentvolume(TTM,$billion)*

U.S.EuropeAsiaPacific

Source:RealCapitalAnalytics;NuveenRealEstateResearch(25Q3dataas4November2025).

Note:*Transactionvolumeincludesallpropertytypesexcludingdevelopmentsites.Apreviousversionofthisslideincludeddevelopmentsiteswhichresultedin

significantlyhighertransactiontotalsforAsiaPacific.Excludingnon-incomeproducingpropertyprovidesabetterlike-for-likecomparison.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

9

Globaltrendsandtactics

Investorsarelikelynowunderweightrealestate

In2022,fallingequityandfixed-incomeportfoliospushedrealestateallocationsaboveinvestors’targetsduetothe“denominatoreffect,”butthesituationhassincereversed.Withequitiesstillnearall-timehighs,manyinvestorsarenowsignificantlybelowtheir2021realestateallocationsandbelowtheirtargetweight.

Totalreturnindex(21Q4=100)

Equities

150

145

140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

21Q4

22Q1

22Q2

22Q3

22Q4

23Q1

23Q2

23Q3

23Q4

24Q1

24Q2

24Q3

24Q4

25Q1

25Q2

25Q3

75

Evolutionofhypothetical60/30/10portfolio(%)

Equities

Fixedincome

Privaterealestate69.5

60.0

55.3

30.031.0

23.1

13.7

7.5

10.0

Baselinepriortorate

hikes

(2021Q4)

Peakoverallocationto

realestate

(2022Q3)

Current

(30Sep2025)

Source:Bloomberg,NuveenRealEstateResearch,NuveenPortfolioStrategy&Solutions(25Q3).

Notes:Modeledportfolioassumesastarting60%allocationtoequities,30%tofixedincome,and10%toprivaterealestatewithportfoliochangesduetomarketmovements,notrebalancing;Equities=S&P500TotalReturnIndex;FixedIncome=BloombergU.S.AggregateTotalReturnIndex,PrivateRealEstate=NCREIFODCETotalReturnIndex.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

10

Globaltrendsandtactics

Commercialrealestatedebtmarkets

Recoveringdemandfromborrowers,coupledwithbanks’repositioningasprovidersofbackleverageandwithnewloansagainstrepricedassets,theopportunityfordebtfundstoproduceattractiverisk/rewardvintagesishigh.

Lenderswillcontinuetobeselective

Lendersareincreasinglybeingselective,focusingonassetsthatdemonstrateimprovingvaluations,increasedrental

incomeandhigh-qualitysustainabilitycredentials.Surprisingly,inEurope,officetransactionshavemadeacomeback,accountingfor25%offinancingrequestsinearly2025,secondonlytoresidentialdevelopment(34%).Thissector

•Lendingriskisfallingascapitalvalueshavestabilized,andinsomemarkets,arestartingtorecover

•TighterpricingandlowerLTVswillbethenewnorminthe

short-mediumtermaslenderscompeteforthebestassets

whilemaintainingsufficientcovenants

balancewillvaryglobally,butwhathasbeenacleartrendandlikelytocontinuetobeafocusisthatlendersareheavilyweightedtowardsassetsthatcandemonstratepositivecashflowincurrentmarketconditions,ratherthanthosewith

potentiallyincreasedrentallevelsinthefuture.

TighterpricingandlowerLTVsarethenewnorm

Despitethechallengingmarketconditions,loanpricinghasbecomemorecompetitiveduetolowtransactionvolumes

andhighcompetitionamonglendersforqualitydeals.However,thishasnoterodedlenderfocusonreducingrisksas

averageday-oneLTVshavealsotrendeddownsincetheendof2023andconservativeLTVlevelsarenowthenewnorm.AverageseniorLTVsarenowsub60%forallassettypesinEurope,withsomesectorsaslowas50%.Higher

•Banksrepositioningfromdirectlendingtoprovidingback

leveragetodebtfunds.Thisismainlydrivenbyregulatory

pressuresandreducedcostofcapitalforbackleverage

senior-stretchloansareupto70%LTVbutareprimarilythroughalternativelendersandcomeatsubstantiallyhighercosttoborrowers.Thereissignificantcapitalwaitingtodeploy,soloanpricingsarelikelytoremaintightinthe

short-mediumterm.Atthesametime,givenrecentmarketvolatility,lendersareunlikelytoloosenloancovenantsandLTVs.

Banksincreasinglyfocusedonbackleverage

Recentmarketvolatilityhasdampenedtheappetiteofbankstolendtorealestatedirectly.InEurope,therecently

implementedBaselIIIEndgameislikelytohavesimilareffectastheslottingregimehashadintheU.K.,withanincreaseincostofcapitalforrealestatelending.Ultimately,itisbecominglesseconomicallyviableforbankstomakerealestate

loansoutsidetheircoreseniorlendingfocus.However,bankshaveincreasinglyofferedbackleverage,whichbenefitfromfavorablecapitaltreatmentrelativetodirectlending,todebtfunds.Thiswillprovidefurtherdebtliquiditytothemarketandlikelybeanincreasingmethodoffinancingrealestatedebt.

Source:NuveenResearch,November2025.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

11

Globaltrendsandtactics

Sustainability:Globalsentiment

Despitepushbackincertainmarkets,theglobaltrendforgreateradoptionandintegrationofsustainabilityinportfolioscontinue.

Investorsarecontinuingtoallocatecapitaltolowandzerocarbonproducts,supportingthelowcarbontransition.Nuveen’srecentsurveyofover800institutionalinvestorsrepresenting$19trillionofassetsundermanagement,foundthatalmostsevenoutof10investorshaveorareconsideringnetzerocommitments(NZC)andasignificantnumberhavesetinterimgoalsoutto2025/2030.

Corporateoccupiercommitmenttodecarbonizationcontinuestogrow,suggestingstrongdemandisbuiltinforgreenbuildings.In2024,morethan7,300companiesrepresentingover40%ofglobalmarketcapitalizationhadanapprovedScienceBasedTargetinplace.

Investorsconsideringnetzerocarbonininvestmentdecisionmaking

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

202320242025GlobalNORAMEMEAAPAC

Source:2025NuveenGlobalInstitutionalInvestorSurvey..

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

Annualcumulativenumberofcompanieswithapprovedtargetsandcommitments

10949

9875

6957

4230

2253

116

203

332

515

7461106

20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:SBTiTrendTracker,August2025.

Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

12

Globaltrendsandtactics

2

U.S.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

13

Globaltrendsandtactics

Realestatehasbeensubstantiallyde-risked

Realestatehasthreeprimaryrisks:fallingvalues,oversupplyandlossofdemand.Asaresultofthe2022-2024correction,twoofthethreeriskshavebeensubstantiallymitigated.

RiskMitigatingfactor

Exhibit

Values

U.S.corerealestatefundvaluesfell21%from22Q3-24Q4.Valuesfoundafloorandhaveshownmodestappreciationoverthepastyear.

U.S.corerealestatequarterlychangeinvalues

5%

3%

1%

-1%

-3%

-5%

20212022202320242025

Pressureonoccupanciescausedbynewsupplypeakedin23Q4andhas

Oversupply

beendecreasingeversince.Elevatedconstructioncostshavecausedafall-offinconstructionstarts.Annualdeliveriesaresettobeatthelowestlevelinoveradecade,whichbodeswellforpropertyfundamentals.

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

U.S.CREdeliveriesasapercentofexistingstock

HistoryForecast

212223242526

Demandloss

Uncertaintycausedbytariffscouldslowleasingactivity.Thisriskcanbesomewhatmitigatedbyfocusingonpropertysubtypeswithdemand

underpinnedbymegatrendsorstructuralimbalancessuchasmedicalofficebuildings,grocery-anchoredretail,andaffordablehousing.

160

140

120

100

80

60

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

Inpatientvs.outpatientsurgeryindex(1995=100)

Outpatientsurgeries

Hospitalsurgeries

Source:NCREIFODCE(2025Q3);CoStar(2025Q2);AmericanHospitalAssociation(June2025);NuveenRealEstateResearch(November2025).OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

14

Globaltrendsandtactics

U.S.transactionpricingisimproving

TheNationalAll-PropertyIndexrose2.5%year-over-year(y-o-y)inSeptember,thesharpestincreasesincelate

2022.Acrosspropertytypes,weareseeingstabilityandgrowthwithnearlyallmajorpropertytypesloggingpositivepricinggrowthonaone-month,three-monthandone-yearbasis.

Commercialpropertypriceindices(year-over-yearchange)

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

National

202122232425

Apartment

202122232425

Industrial

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

202122232425

Office-Suburban

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

202122232425

Retail

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

202122232425

Office-CBD

202122232425

Source:MSCIRealCapitalAnalyticsCommercialPropertyPriceIndices;NuveenRealEstateResearch(datathroughSeptember2025asof23October2025datarelease).OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

15

Globaltrendsandtactics

U.S.returnspositiveforlastfivequarters

Totalbenchmarkreturnshavebeenpositiveforfiveconsecutivequarters.Followingtenquartersofvaluelosses,thelastthreequarterssawmodestpositiveassetappreciationoverall.Acrosssectors,valuesarestablewithmanynowseeinggains.

ODCEquarterlyreturnsbyselectsubtype(asofQ32025)

NCREIFODCEreturns

IncomereturnCapitalgrowthTotalreturn

8%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

21Q1

21Q2

21Q3

21Q4

22Q1

22Q2

22Q3

22Q4

23Q1

23Q2

23Q3

23Q4

24Q1

24Q2

24Q3

24Q4

25Q1

25Q2

25Q3

-6%

IndustrialOfficeSFRMedicalApartmentStripretailSelf-

Officestorage

Jumpto:Global|U.S.|Europe|APAC

IncomereturnCapitalreturnTotalreturn

Source:NCREIFODCE(25Q3);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

16

Globaltrendsandtactics

NextcyclehasseeminglybegunforU.S.realestate

TherehavebeenthreemajorcyclessincetheformationoftheU.S.coreopen-endedrealestatefundindustry,eachofwhichwas12+yearsinlengthandgeneratedreturnsof10%+annually.Followinga25%lossoverthelasttwoyears,valueshavestabilized.Corerealestatehasnowproducedfiveconsecutivequartersofpositivetotalreturns.

Historically,twoconsecutivequartersofpositivetotalreturnshavereliablyindicatedthestartofthenextcycle.

CumulativereturnsofU.S.corerealestatefunds(NFI-ODCE)

400%

300%

200%

100%

0%

-100%

二Positivetotalreturns二Negativecapitalreturns(valuelosses)

411%

1993-2008

15years

11.5%CAGR

2010-2022

12.75years11.8%CAGR

312%

299%

1978-1990

12.75years11.5%CAGR

?

Early90srecession

35%value-loss

Globalfinancialcrisis

44%value-loss

Rateshock

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

25%value-loss

Source:NFI-ODCE(NCREIFFundIndex–Open-EndDiversifiedCoreEquity;NuveenRealEstateResearch(25Q3).

Notes:Thischartshowscumulativepositivetotalreturnsuntileachcycleended,identifiedbyatleasttwoquartersofnegativetotalreturns(ex:thesingle-quarterofnegativetotalreturninQ22020didnotindicatetheendofthecycle).Similarly,cumulativevalue-lossesidentifyperiodsofsustainednegativecapitalreturnsuntilvaluesincreasedforatleasttwoconsecutivequarters.Themostrecentquarterofdata(Q424)wasthefirstquarterofpositivecapitalreturnsthiscycle(following9quartersofvaluelosses)andthesecondquarterofpositivetotalreturns.Totalreturnsarecomprisedofcapitalreturns(changeinvalues)andincomereturns(i.e.rentandotherincomeasapercentofassetvalue).Becauseincomereturnsare

generallypositiveandstable,totalreturnscanbepositiveeveninperiodswhenvaluesaremoderatelynegative(ex:1994-1995;“Tech-wreck”of2001-2022;Q32024).AnearlierversionofthischartutilizedNPI-ODCE,unleveredproperty-levelreturns.TheaboveversionutilizesNFI-ODCE,afund-levelcapitalizationweightedreturnindexwhichincludespropertyinvestmentsateffectiveownershipshare,cashbalances,leverage,andotherfundlevelimpacts.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

17

Globaltrendsandtactics

Thereareopportunitiesacrossallsectors

Mostmedicalofficeandretailmarketshavevacanciesbelowlong-termaverages.Theindustrialmarketisnear

equilibriumwithmostvacanciesconcentratedinlargerpropertiesandwithlightindustrialspaceparticularlytight.Thewidespreadinvacanciesacrossallpropertytypeshighlightsthatthereareopportunitiesineachsector.

Sources:CoStar;Revista;NuveenRealEstateResearch(Q32025asof1November2025);Note:thelengthofthepre-pandemicaveragevacancyvariesduetodifferencesindataavailabilitybymarketandsector.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

18

Globaltrendsandtactics

Deliveriessetfordecade+lows

Thenumberofnewprojectsgettingstartedhasdroppedsignificantlyacrosssectors,whichwillbodewellforfuturefundamentalsasnewsupplywillbecomelessofaheadwind.

Quarterlydeliveriesasapercentofexistingstock(Q12017-Q42026)

1.2%

HistoryForecast

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

17192123251719212325171921232517192123251719212325

MultifamilyIndustrialMedicalOfficeOfficeRetail

Source:CoStar(Q32025);Revista(Q32025),NuveenRealEstateResearch.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.Jumpto:

Global

|

U.S.

|

Europe

|

APAC

19

Globaltrendsandtactics

U.S.economics

GrowthcontinuedatasolidpaceinQ32025,butjobgrowthhasslowedandtheeconomyislikelytomoderateattheendof2025.TheOneBigBeautifulBillActintroducesandrenewstaxcuts,whichshouldhelpgrowthin2026.

•AcceleratedinvestmentinA.I.infrastructurehasstimulatedgrowthin2025,butthepaceof

employmentgrowthhasslowednoticeably

•TheFederalReservehasrespondedtogrowth

concernsbycuttinginterestratesineachofthepasttwomeetings.Long-termratescontinuetohover

around4%amidlingeringconcernsoverinflation

U.S.realGDPgrowth

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

3.2%

2.5%

2.1%

1.6%

202320242025F2026F

TheU.S.economycontinuestoexpand,butconcernsarerising

IntheU.S.,policyuncertaintyandarapidlychangingtradeenvironmentcontinuetodominatethe

economiclandscapethroughthefirstthreequartersof2025.Anewroundofbroad-basedreciprocaltariffswentintoeffectinearly-August,andtheTrumpadministrationhasimplementedor

threatenedadditionaltariffsonChinaaswellasongoodsfromspecificindustrieslikefurnitureandpharmaceuticals.TheU.S.effectivetariffrateisexpectedtotop15%byyear’sendaccordingto

Moody’sAnalytics,increasingcostsforU.S.importers.Inaddition,fundingfortheU.S.governmentexpiredonSeptember30th,leadingtoashutdownofmanygovernmentfunctions.Thereductioningovernmentemploymentandspendingwillhavegrowthimplicationsattheendof2025andwilladdanotherlayerofuncertaintyintotheoutlook,asmanykeydatareleasesaredelayed.

Despitethevolatilityfromtradepolicy,theU.S.economycontinuedtoexpandatasolidpaceinthethirdquarter,climbingatanestimated2.8%annualizedpaceafterreboundinginQ2.Consumer

spendinghaspickedupafterstallingatthestartoftheyearbutmuchoftheimprovementinGDP

growthoverthepasttwoquartershasbeendrivenbybusinessspending,fueledbycompani