银行业投资观察：非息扰动加大板块进入筑底期

目录索引一、期察：A股回落，H股于A股 6二、资议非扰加大板进筑期 6三、块现：银板回落周换率落 四、股现银板回落国大相稳健 16五、债现本银转债均格涨0.12% 24六、利测踪：25利润速期体修 27七、险示 32图表索引图1：行块市数表现 7图2：行块现盘 7图3：板超收盘 8图4：板绝收况 8图5：2025Q2末募金持仓北持仓VS市场跌（%） 9图6：母利润TTM比增（新得）VS期市涨幅（%） 9图7：2024Q4末募金持仓北持仓VS以来场跌（%） 10图8：母利润TTM比增（新得）VS初以市涨幅（%） 10图9：行块、 全A非融油化表现 图10：行块、 全A非融油化换手（） 12图市率银行 15图12：对盈：/ 全A金石化 15图13：净：行 15图14：对净：/ 全A金石化 15图15：息：行 15图16：对息：/ 全A金石化 15图17：行债对与相收（） 25图18：行债银块、转指累收率 25图19：行债性一览至2025年10月3126图20：行债位一览至2025年10月3126图21：有行利速预（2025E） 30图22：有行收预测（2025E） 30图23：有行利速预（2025E） 30图24：有行收预测（2025E） 30图25：份净润预测（2025E） 31图26：份营增测（2025E） 31图27：商净润预测（2025E） 31图28：商营增测（2025E） 31图29：商净润预测（2025E） 31图30：商营增测（2025E） 31TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：信级业涨跌情（） 13表2：信级业换手情（） 14表3：市行间幅情（） 17表4：市行间率情（） 19表5：市行对/相估值股率所分情况 21表6：A+H上银行AH溢价及处位况 23表7：行债键一览 24表8：行债间幅情（） 25表9：行债间率情（） 25表10：A上银净润增预跟（2025E） 28表股市行增速测踪（2025E） 29一、本期观察：A股整体回落，H股优于A股本期观察区间：2025/10/27-2025/10/31。文来源于 数。（图（2025/10/27-2025/10/31），全A上涨29、0.7%A股银行。个股表现方面（表3-6）： 数据显示A股银行涨幅靠前为重庆银行上涨4.92%、宁波银行上涨2.09%，跌幅前三为浦发银行下跌11.48%、成都银行下跌7.84%、江阴银下跌5.57%H股行涨靠前为庆行涨4.56%国行涨0.23%，跌幅前三为中国下跌6.18%、民生银行下跌5.91%、浙商银行下跌4.89%。银行转债方（图72表79） 数显本银行债均格涨，跑输证债0.66百点券面涨前为重转（+1.34%）常银转跌幅前前为青农债（下跌1.08%）、紫银债下跌0.28%）（图3025（A25年净利润增速、营收增速一致预期环比上期分别变动0.18pct、-0.13pct。二、投资建议：非息扰动加大，板块进入筑底期回顾2025Q1-3续同比高增。展望25Q4，银行板块大概率进入平台筑底期。利率波动对其他非息的扰动，可能仍是当前影响业绩的主要因素。随着贸易冲击接近尾声，十五五规划方向也奠定了国内发展的安全性和可持续性，考虑到市场流动性依然宽松，风偏的短期波动预计已经结束，资产趋势将延续。近期央行重启买债，债市利率回落后仍有兑现压力，长债的阶段性反弹类似于二季度初，银行板块表现在此处大概率进入平台筑底期，继续推荐宁波银行、、常熟银行等顺周期特征银行，国有大行，以及业绩增速有持续性的青岛银行。图1：银行板块和市场指数表现绝对收益行情区间表现(4.01-10.31)27.7%29.0%27.7%29.0%25.7%14.4%10.5%10.4%1.9%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%，注：银行指数为 行业指数:银行，国有行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行图2：银行板块表现复盘10.812.3112月制造业PMI连续

4.2美国关税政策落地

美国关税政策落地，中国进行反制30.0%

揽子增量政策

三个月稳定在扩张区间

4.25政治局会议:加紧实施更加积极有为25.0%

10.12财政部加力支持地方化债，发行特别国债支持国有大行补充核心一级资本

的宏观政策，适时降准降息7.15上半年GDP为66.05万亿元，同比+5.3%10.17住建部稳地产政策1.3央行货币政策委员会24Q4例会提出20.0%组合拳10.18

1.10择机降准降息5.7国新办发布会介绍一揽子金融政策，证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展动方案》金融街论坛潘行长阐述核心政策思路

央行决定阶段性暂停在25bp公开市场买入国债25bp

8.137月社融数据回升15.0%

10.2110月LPR下调1.1412月社融增速超预期

9.3举办抗战胜利80周年阅10.3110月PMI超季节性好转

8.4对购买国债等债务取得利息收入征收增值税

兵仪式10.159月社融微降10.0%

1.15尾盘隔夜利率一度高达16%6.20央行、香港金融管理局9.18美联储宣布降息25bp11.6特朗普胜选

共同推动跨境支付通

9.23央行召开三季度货币政5.0%0.0%

12.9.63.5人大开幕，GDP目标5%6.18陆家嘴金融论坛聚焦全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展5.5习主席同特朗普通电话

策例会-5.0%

12.2央行宣布25年1月起启用新M1统计口径

，赤字率拟按4%左右安排

5.201年及5年LPR均下调11.29非银同业活期存款利

2.17习总书记出席民营企业座谈会10BP，六大行下调存款挂牌利率11.8美联储降息25bp；人大常

率纳入自律管理

2.141

5.144月信贷增速较弱-10.0%

月社融增速超预期，开门红表现亮眼委会审通过债方案 11.1510月经济数据初好1.22六部门印发长期金入方案5.12中美日内瓦贸会联合声明发布-15.0%

相对收益 银行(申万)；注：银行指数为 行业指数:银行80.0%农商行(相对)1月-5月： 5月-8月： 银行(80.0%农商行(相对)1月-5月： 5月-8月： 银行(申万)月月：高利润增速银行(相对)12月-25年3月：70.0% -银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨-大行防御价值再现-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情回调-区域行表现较好4月-：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图4：分板块绝对收益情况国有大行(绝) 股份行(绝对) 城商行(绝对)90.0%80.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨5月-8月：-大行防御价值再现90.0%80.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨5月-8月：-大行防御价值再现月月：-板块-相对收益减弱12月-25年3月：-复苏行情回调-区域行表现较好4月-：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行0无锡0无锡青农贵阳青岛南京中国长沙农业渝农郑州5交通苏农上海工商10 常熟银行 江中信紫金兰州平安苏州张家港15建设杭州2025招商华夏浙商北京浦发成都西安光大邮储民生沪农江阴兴业宁波重庆厦门6.004.002.00本期涨跌幅（%本期涨跌幅（%）-2.00-4.00-6.00-8.00-10.00-12.00-14.00

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2025Q2）图6：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）厦门重庆6.00厦门重庆宁波4.00宁波青岛2.00青岛工商 农业交通 瑞工商 农业交通 瑞银行兰州 苏州常熟京-10本期涨跌幅（%）-10本期涨跌幅（%）

0.000无锡0兴业

长沙渝农南

齐鲁齐鲁20 30 40-2.00紫金建设浙商

青农 郑州江阴杭州江苏江阴杭州江苏苏农北京招商民生华夏邮储 光大 西安成都-6.00成都-8.00

浦发浦发归母净利润TTM同比增速(最新）重庆工商宁重庆工商宁银行无锡紫金浙商贵阳 上海瑞丰苏州中国邮储渝农杭州常熟招0兰州平安5郑州华夏沪农25201510光大民生交通北京成都商建设张家港西安中信长沙齐鲁苏农浦发兴业青农波厦门南京青岛农业502025年以来涨跌幅（2025年以来涨跌幅（%）3020100-10-20

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2024Q4）图8：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）00000宁波0渝农长沙江0苏农西安沪农0邮储0上海张家港中国兰州青农常成都南京瑞丰北京50光大0郑州353025201510杭州熟齐鲁浦发江阴苏工商中信建设 银行重庆招商厦门青岛农业52025年以来涨跌幅（2025年以来涨跌幅（%）321-1-2归母净利润TTM同比增速(最新）三、板块表现：银行板块回落，周度换手率回落涨跌幅751银（信级行块体跌，在30个中信一级行业第29，跑输 A（金融、石油石化）指数约2.87个百分点。（0.08个百分点，在3030。2025年10月31（（/全为历史平均水平。图9：银行板块、 全A非金融石油石化指数现16.00%

全A非融、油石化 银行（轴）12周期移动平均( 全A非金、石石化) 12周期移动平均(银行（右轴）)

4.00%14.00%

12.25%3.50%12.00% 3.00%10.00% 2.50%.% ..%6.00% 1.50%4.00% 1.00%2.00% 0.50%2019/01/042019/02/222019/01/042019/02/222019/04/122019/05/312019/07/192019/09/062019/10/252019/12/132020/01/312020/03/202020/05/082020/06/262020/08/142020/10/022020/11/202021/01/082021/02/262021/04/162021/06/042021/07/232021/09/102021/10/292021/12/172022/02/042022/03/252022/05/132022/07/012022/08/192022/10/072022/11/252023/01/132023/03/032023/04/212023/06/092023/07/282023/09/152023/11/032023/12/222024/02/092024/03/292024/05/172024/07/052024/08/232024/10/112024/11/292025/01/172025/03/072025/04/252025/06/132025/08/012025/09/19，广发证券发展研究中图10：银行板块、全A非金融石油石化区间换手率（周）图10：银行板块、全A非金融石油石化区间换手率（周）15,00013,00011,0009,0007,0005,0003,0002017/08/0815,00013,00011,0009,0007,0005,0003,0002017/09/262017/11/142018/01/022018/02/202018/04/102018/05/292018/07/17全A全A非金融、石油石化2018/10/232018/12/112019/01/292019/03/192019/05/072019/06/252019/08/132019/10/012019/11/192020/01/072020/02/252020/04/142020/06/022020/07/212020/09/08银行2020/10/27银行2020/12/152021/02/022021/03/2312/3412/342021/06/292021/08/17银行/银行/2021/11/232022/01/112022/03/012022/04/19全A全A非金融、石油石化（右轴）2022/07/262022/09/132022/11/012022/12/202023/02/072023/03/282023/05/162023/07/042023/08/222023/10/102023/11/282024/01/162024/03/052024/04/232024/06/112024/07/302024/09/172024/11/052024/12/242025/02/112025/04/012025/05/202025/07/082025/08/262.001.801.601.401.201.000.802025/10/142.001.801.601.401.201.000.802025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初以来基础化工3.37%2.55%-5.76%0.85%3.54%-0.14%-0.95%32.26%电力设备及新能源3.28%4.64%-5.03%-1.64%4.24%3.21%3.61%42.86%综合金融3.15%3.33%-4.22%0.49%0.46%-1.92%-0.55%24.21%消费者服务2.74%2.60%-1.22%-2.81%0.07%-6.71%3.52%7.52%综合2.73%2.67%-3.80%1.15%1.94%-0.36%-4.09%25.62%计算机2.66%4.52%-5.90%-2.03%2.68%-0.31%0.16%34.41%有色金属2.61%1.01%-2.91%4.35%7.11%3.24%-3.93%78.82%钢铁2.29%0.65%-2.62%3.67%3.18%-0.55%-2.74%24.50%农林牧渔1.98%-1.59%-1.65%1.14%0.17%-1.86%-2.77%18.87%建材1.57%1.85%-3.48%2.49%1.57%-1.73%0.49%20.97%家电1.23%3.18%-2.05%-0.35%0.21%-0.83%1.29%10.32%纺织服装1.22%1.86%-0.77%1.67%-0.10%-2.51%0.92%11.15%医药1.21%0.56%-2.60%-1.27%1.61%-2.11%-1.98%21.94%交通运输0.92%1.12%0.73%1.01%0.03%-1.85%0.42%3.40%电力及公用事业0.77%1.13%-0.43%2.91%0.27%0.56%-2.15%10.00%汽车0.69%2.95%-6.24%-1.47%2.42%0.11%3.43%25.67%商贸零售0.39%-0.28%-0.08%0.10%0.39%-3.92%-1.42%4.61%石油石化0.39%4.75%-2.81%2.77%-0.49%0.03%-1.92%5.02%机械0.15%4.80%-5.21%-0.59%1.52%0.03%1.54%36.01%传媒0.14%4.20%-6.28%-3.58%0.31%0.16%0.69%30.01%轻工制造0.06%2.73%-2.45%0.92%0.70%-2.80%-1.08%16.55%国防军工-0.22%2.60%-5.12%0.24%3.66%-0.26%0.04%17.87%食品饮料-0.29%-0.81%0.85%-0.20%0.73%-2.48%-2.58%-3.26%煤炭-0.43%1.46%4.27%4.30%-0.93%-1.44%3.59%4.79%非银行金融-0.51%2.30%-1.09%0.71%2.66%-0.04%-3.80%9.52%房地产-1.17%1.59%-2.69%-0.62%2.85%-0.33%0.44%9.01%建筑-1.47%2.51%-1.50%2.53%1.12%-1.93%0.18%9.57%电子-1.94%8.11%-7.10%-2.52%2.69%3.67%2.75%44.93%银行-2.20%1.42%4.99%0.23%-1.25%-0.26%-4.09%10.52%通信-3.47%11.56%-5.63%-1.36%-0.57%-0.31%1.01%64.53%2025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初以来计算机19.50%13.64%16.84%7.86%6.61%21.37%22.72%867.46%综合金融18.98%8.68%10.01%3.90%4.16%11.01%15.59%683.52%电力设备及新能源18.69%14.23%20.25%8.92%7.40%18.03%19.07%557.42%有色金属18.28%14.06%21.17%9.35%7.34%14.22%16.45%484.59%电子17.14%13.75%16.99%9.17%7.35%22.43%21.21%595.41%综合16.42%12.94%14.76%6.04%4.90%12.00%15.12%588.68%机械15.86%14.12%14.42%6.23%5.07%15.04%18.55%598.03%传媒15.57%12.19%12.88%6.99%6.24%18.67%23.11%725.29%汽车14.20%12.24%17.13%7.44%6.56%19.65%21.78%531.70%轻工制造13.74%13.71%14.74%5.94%5.34%16.48%20.84%544.89%基础化工13.66%10.80%12.77%6.13%5.17%12.70%14.52%509.55%国防军工13.22%9.41%11.65%5.04%4.16%10.05%10.82%524.15%纺织服装12.72%12.74%12.72%5.10%4.73%16.45%19.54%512.85%消费者服务12.27%11.74%12.97%6.36%6.40%20.80%25.71%663.18%建材12.09%10.13%10.66%4.91%3.28%10.30%11.40%392.40%煤炭11.52%15.02%12.51%4.47%2.77%10.19%12.67%265.86%房地产11.43%12.39%11.24%5.13%4.49%13.62%18.61%383.17%家电11.03%8.86%9.45%4.50%4.13%12.90%16.38%472.16%农林牧渔10.87%10.24%11.71%4.16%3.32%9.53%13.29%460.89%商贸零售10.54%10.59%12.75%4.27%3.86%11.49%19.55%563.45%医药10.33%8.91%9.47%3.52%3.08%8.93%11.17%440.04%钢铁9.52%7.41%13.30%4.66%3.02%6.35%8.53%276.20%建筑9.19%8.98%9.77%4.69%3.07%9.46%11.34%305.91%通信8.98%7.46%8.98%4.30%3.46%10.79%12.19%442.98%电力及公用事业7.50%6.94%7.24%3.24%2.54%6.15%6.57%224.57%非银行金融7.04%5.09%6.29%3.16%3.97%5.08%7.96%237.30%食品饮料6.69%5.72%6.84%2.80%2.43%6.63%7.91%365.15%交通运输5.82%5.52%5.57%1.97%1.57%4.77%6.54%182.50%石油石化2.35%3.31%2.10%0.97%0.71%1.76%2.09%81.49%银行1.86%1.94%2.20%0.78%0.65%1.59%1.85%60.33%1.201.101.000.900.800.700.600.500.406.50%5.50%1.201.101.000.900.800.700.600.500.406.50%5.50%4.50%3.50%2.50%1.50%15/15/

图15：股息率：银行图15：股息率：银行 1%分位3.50 1%分位3.50 34

2018/129.008.007.006.005.004.003.00 9.008.007.006.005.004.003.00 1%分位图13：市净率：银行均值均值-1倍标准差 1%分位2019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/032024/062024/092024/122025/032025/062025/09图11：市盈率：银行均值均值-1倍标准差图12：相对市盈率：银行/均值均值-1倍标准差 1%分位0.400.350.300.250.200.150.10全A非金融石油石化均值+1倍标准差99%分位均值+1图11：市盈率：银行均值均值-1倍标准差图12：相对市盈率：银行/均值均值-1倍标准差 1%分位0.400.350.300.250.200.150.10全A非金融石油石化均值+1倍标准差99%分位均值+1倍标准差99%分位均值+1倍标准差99%分位 图均值均值-1倍标准差1%分位均值+1倍标准差99%分位6.505.504.502.501.50

0.50 0.450.400.50 0.450.400.350.30 0.250.200.1516：相对股息率：银行/均值均值均值均值-1倍标准差全A非金融石油石化全A非金融石油石化均值+1均值+1倍标准差99%分位

2018/12图14：相对市净率：银行/均值均值图14：相对市净率：银行/均值均值-1倍标准差1%分位2019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/06全A全A非金融石油石化均值+1倍标准差99%分位2022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/032024/062024/092024/122025/032025/062025/09四、个股表现：银行板块回落，国有大行相对稳健+4.92%+2.09%（-0.82%-3.60%、-1.45%、-2.10%，国有大行表现较好。换手率：、青岛银行9.77%周换手0.97%3.22%4.61%农商行整体交易活跃度更高。7.83X6.10X5.85X0.75X0.58X0.67X、1.090.850.81（LF）分别为1.07、0.83、0.96、0.88。表3：上市银行区间涨跌幅情况（周）2025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初以来重庆银行4.92%-1.26%14.19%1.01%-0.78%-0.88%-5.22%19.84%宁波银行2.09%1.13%4.02%-0.15%0.23%-1.42%-5.11%20.46%中国银行1.45%3.56%2.10%0.97%-1.15%-0.95%-3.47%6.36%贵阳银行1.00%1.18%2.23%1.04%-0.69%-1.02%-2.50%6.36%青岛银行0.58%0.98%6.92%0.21%0.00%-1.86%-5.27%37.75%长沙银行0.21%2.14%3.20%2.60%-0.45%-0.32%-3.60%14.74%渝农商行-0.14%-4.81%12.17%-1.52%2.01%3.19%-3.40%19.88%农业银行-0.38%4.86%11.57%2.40%0.76%-0.45%-8.15%55.76%常熟银行-0.56%-0.56%3.94%0.29%-1.58%-1.56%-6.98%7.82%南京银行-0.62%-2.57%8.05%-1.10%-2.93%7.44%-5.07%7.99%齐鲁银行-0.66%-1.46%4.92%2.61%-2.05%3.35%0.18%13.28%交通银行-0.69%3.58%3.41%0.45%-1.47%-1.87%-2.52%-2.76%工商银行-0.77%2.89%4.24%0.14%-1.48%2.92%-3.74%17.15%瑞丰银行-1.08%0.18%3.17%0.94%-0.19%-0.75%-2.90%1.18%江苏银行-1.19%-0.73%8.60%0.90%-1.08%-1.17%-2.56%15.30%无锡银行-1.46%0.00%3.88%0.85%0.00%-0.34%-1.50%6.29%郑州银行-1.47%0.99%0.00%2.02%-1.00%-1.96%-0.49%-3.42%苏农银行-1.52%0.19%3.55%2.01%-1.00%-0.59%-1.90%12.91%青农商行-1.53%0.93%2.21%1.93%-1.27%-0.63%-3.35%9.30%兰州银行-1.64%1.67%0.42%1.27%-0.84%-1.65%-0.82%1.58%苏州银行-1.66%-1.64%3.64%1.10%-1.45%1.60%-0.97%4.33%兴业银行-1.80%2.03%2.54%-0.81%-2.31%0.15%-5.28%10.51%张家港行-1.99%1.57%4.66%1.40%-0.46%-0.23%-2.91%8.86%平安银行-2.08%1.40%1.85%0.79%-0.53%-0.44%-2.30%1.90%建设银行-2.46%1.52%5.98%1.05%-0.58%-2.48%-2.63%8.75%-2.53%0.87%3.51%-0.57%-0.96%-0.49%-3.62%8.55%华夏银行-2.99%3.24%3.66%-0.30%-2.23%-1.17%-5.02%-10.61%北京银行-3.29%0.87%4.18%-0.18%-1.61%-0.53%-5.38%-4.62%紫金银行-3.41%1.03%1.75%1.79%-0.71%-2.08%-2.37%2.88%浙商银行-3.55%0.98%1.66%1.34%-1.00%-0.66%-1.94%7.42%杭州银行-3.68%-0.61%5.53%1.77%-0.26%-0.65%-1.97%9.23%沪农商行-3.72%0.00%9.25%-0.86%-0.97%0.20%-2.30%5.07%邮储银行-4.01%4.72%1.06%-1.57%-3.04%-1.82%-3.21%6.21%民生银行-5.10%2.74%1.52%-0.75%-1.73%0.00%-4.44%-1.06%西安银行-5.35%2.24%2.55%0.77%-1.77%-1.74%-5.62%10.36%-5.38%2.92%2.39%-0.30%-2.04%-0.87%-4.68%-9.65%江阴银行-5.57%3.29%8.71%0.67%-1.33%-1.96%-5.15%14.37%成都银行-7.84%-1.46%5.83%1.39%-0.58%-1.03%-3.89%2.95%浦发银行-11.48%-2.55%12.50%-0.50%-2.86%-4.37%-5.81%15.05%重庆银行H4.56%0.13%6.23%0.42%-2.18%-0.54%-4.40%37.33%HHHHHHH重庆农村商业银行HH建设银行H青岛银行H邮储银行H浙商银行H民生银行H中国H0.23% 2.57%1.90%-0.71%0.71%-3.00%-2.91% 18.19%0.00%0.00%-0.29%0.79%-0.78%0.79%-1.55%0.78%-3.03%26.63%-3.51%3.64%3.55%-0.60%0.00%-2.35%1.19%5.05%3.28%-0.92%-0.91% -1.20% -3.61%15.24%-0.82%-0.97%4.48%2.65%-0.70%0.00%-3.06%-2.00% 22.57%6.19%-7.62%1.94% 0.98%-4.67%-5.31%14.61%-1.43%-1.82%-2.29%-2.33%-2.41%-1.41%1.43%-1.41%0.00%-1.39%-1.52%-2.70%-0.85%7.87%6.88%1.16%-0.58%-5.38%40.98%39.85%-1.36%12.76%1.55%-4.93%4.64%-4.12%1.55%5.96%-0.64%1.97%-3.14%-3.02%-2.12% 26.55%3.54%3.81%-0.41%-0.14%-3.43%27.02%-3.16%-3.35%-0.45%6.21%-1.41%-0.70% 0.00%-1.61%55.49%6.38%-0.37%0.39%0.00%-1.11%0.19%-3.91%-3.77%22.75%20.60%-4.89%2.70%2.42%1.18%-1.92%-2.26%-4.32%-5.91%-6.18%0.49%0.98%-1.45%-2.59% 21.51%1.19% 4.35% 0.94%-2.45%-2.97% -6.13%12.52%表4：上市银行区间换手率情况（周）2025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初以来江阴银行11.98%17.29%9.07%2.69%2.26%5.58%6.65%306.91%青岛银行9.77%7.07%7.54%2.04%1.76%4.84%5.76%276.79%常熟银行9.46%5.55%6.83%2.57%2.83%6.66%8.17%267.72%成都银行7.33%3.02%4.04%1.23%1.31%3.06%2.81%122.63%民生银行7.20%9.02%7.04%3.76%2.85%4.26%8.69%148.53%郑州银行7.10%10.33%9.82%2.92%2.59%8.16%12.62%362.08%紫金银行7.03%7.26%7.23%2.28%2.06%5.77%8.47%334.75%贵阳银行6.67%5.05%5.75%1.64%1.52%4.03%4.61%238.86%张家港行6.33%8.61%8.57%1.99%2.08%5.03%5.95%303.08%苏农银行6.33%7.53%7.18%2.41%1.61%4.25%5.81%362.99%兰州银行6.17%8.53%6.59%1.92%1.98%5.83%10.17%335.51%建设银行6.04%6.07%8.73%2.35%2.23%7.16%6.55%230.77%重庆银行6.00%4.48%9.57%1.19%1.31%3.60%3.32%138.10%齐鲁银行5.83%4.65%6.63%2.44%2.24%7.91%6.76%216.24%苏州银行5.72%3.86%6.28%2.43%2.41%5.47%4.85%220.45%北京银行5.22%5.71%7.44%3.79%2.18%3.89%7.17%118.65%西安银行5.21%4.52%4.68%1.26%1.22%3.57%5.07%136.75%交通银行4.92%4.53%5.09%1.50%1.50%3.37%4.39%103.18%瑞丰银行4.20%5.28%5.52%1.52%1.44%3.43%3.97%216.08%青农商行4.11%4.88%5.43%1.56%1.87%3.94%4.57%277.58%4.06%4.18%4.86%2.65%1.46%2.69%4.30%84.51%无锡银行4.00%4.24%5.31%1.17%1.19%3.03%4.03%213.67%浙商银行3.99%5.69%5.28%1.54%1.52%4.20%4.02%176.99%江苏银行3.92%3.40%6.29%1.74%1.22%4.05%3.89%137.75%杭州银行3.61%3.01%4.94%1.59%1.55%4.63%3.01%154.23%渝农商行3.37%3.35%5.98%1.58%2.11%4.10%4.15%154.22%宁波银行2.92%2.32%3.40%1.21%1.21%2.95%3.24%100.61%华夏银行2.75%3.23%4.25%2.99%1.38%2.52%3.30%79.85%南京银行2.71%1.85%2.88%1.15%1.42%3.44%2.50%92.88%平安银行2.55%2.53%3.39%1.10%1.04%2.37%2.34%118.84%长沙银行2.48%2.13%3.45%1.30%1.37%2.39%2.37%123.62%浦发银行2.23%1.88%2.05%0.56%0.57%1.45%1.39%47.86%2.15%1.63%2.79%0.93%0.74%1.74%1.92%63.89%兴业银行1.99%2.20%2.90%1.25%1.28%1.91%2.53%66.85%邮储银行1.34%1.57%1.37%0.39%0.40%0.89%0.89%54.03%沪农商行1.07%1.08%2.09%0.62%0.50%1.35%1.11%60.43%中国银行0.99%0.83%0.81%0.24%0.23%0.67%0.69%25.17%农业银行0.67%0.87%0.89%0.27%0.24%0.81%0.71%28.01%工商银行0.65%0.70%0.89%0.22%0.24%0.75%0.70%26.58%青岛银行H4.08%0.60%0.88%0.35%0.36%1.48%0.41%31.69%农业银行H2.76%2.77%2.73%0.88%1.28%2.06%1.82%97.03%H2.09%1.88%3.25%0.74%1.25%1.66%2.07%88.86%重庆农村商业银行H1.45%1.67%5.02%1.35%1.60%3.03%1.83%135.35%中国银行H1.28%0.97%1.58%0.90%0.82%1.52%1.44%74.02%民生银行H1.25%1.90%1.88%1.02%1.19%1.68%2.04%98.52%工商银行H1.17%1.27%1.71%0.66%0.75%1.40%1.13%63.00%重庆银行H0.96%0.59%1.22%0.41%0.29%0.54%0.68%35.53%郑州银行H0.75%1.01%1.88%1.03%1.30%2.05%2.25%160.19%邮储银行H0.65%0.66%0.84%0.42%0.57%0.83%1.14%56.54%中国H0.64%0.49%1.09%0.56%0.51%0.56%0.57%29.16%浙商银行H0.51%0.78%1.07%0.54%0.25%0.59%1.02%48.87%建设银行H0.48%0.46%0.78%0.31%0.37%0.49%0.50%28.05%渤海银行H0.44%0.28%0.48%0.14%0.29%0.31%0.52%17.39%交通银行H0.35%0.47%0.60%0.24%0.22%0.28%0.29%18.13%江西银行H0.22%0.13%0.39%0.43%0.36%0.50%0.62%26.17%广州农商银行H0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.01%单家银行（PE单家银行（PE、PB单位：倍） 单家银行/银行板块（PE、PB单位：倍）PE所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位工商银行7.5694.40%0.7351.20%3.96%94.40%1.0591.40%1.0478.30%0.989.20%建设银行7.0883.80%0.7037.10%2.00%83.80%0.9827.20%1.0020.30%0.504.10%农业银行9.6599.60%1.0298.60%3.04%99.60%1.3499.60%1.4699.60%0.764.50%中国银行7.5497.10%0.6856.10%3.82%97.10%1.0576.80%0.9773.70%0.9511.70%邮储银行7.9287.10%0.6844.20%3.60%87.10%1.1054.50%0.9831.30%0.8961.10%交通银行6.6987.40%0.5643.80%3.88%87.40%0.9367.40%0.8055.10%0.979.60%招商银行6.9225.50%0.9512.00%4.89%25.50%0.960.20%1.360.10%1.2299.60%兴业银行5.5448.10%0.5519.80%5.24%48.10%0.772.70%0.790.40%1.3089.60%浦发银行7.8395.50%0.5338.40%3.24%95.50%1.0982.70%0.7648.80%0.8154.90%民生银行5.6467.00%0.307.50%5.06%67.00%0.7822.20%0.440.20%1.2666.40%光大银行4.9033.20%0.403.40%5.66%33.20%0.680.50%0.570.00%1.4196.90%平安银行5.0921.60%0.505.70%5.28%21.60%0.710.40%0.710.20%1.3190.80%华夏银行3.9930.60%0.3516.50%5.95%30.60%0.550.20%0.500.50%1.4898.30%浙商银行5.8962.20%0.4621.10%5.22%62.20%0.8226.20%0.6625.70%1.3092.10%北京银行4.5029.00%0.4316.30%5.72%29.00%0.620.10%0.610.20%1.4281.50%江苏银行5.7961.30%0.7861.40%4.83%61.30%0.809.00%1.1154.20%1.2080.50%宁波银行6.4816.40%0.8614.80%3.18%16.40%0.902.30%1.237.90%0.7996.70%南京银行6.5058.00%0.7720.30%4.33%58.00%0.9022.50%1.108.10%1.0855.50%杭州银行5.9924.10%0.8629.70%3.73%24.10%0.832.50%1.2333.20%0.9393.60%成都银行5.3529.30%0.8415.40%5.30%29.30%0.741.30%1.2023.40%1.3299.20%长沙银行4.6937.40%0.5527.90%6.48%37.40%0.6510.20%0.7913.80%1.6199.00%重庆银行6.6671.90%0.6768.20%3.88%71.90%0.9244.80%0.9758.30%0.9680.60%贵阳银行4.3549.30%0.358.80%4.77%49.30%0.600.90%0.501.30%1.1997.10%郑州银行9.5664.00%0.407.80%1.00%64.00%1.3332.70%0.5712.10%0.2574.20%青岛银行6.2835.80%0.7648.30%3.09%35.80%0.8716.00%1.0936.30%0.7734.70%苏州银行6.8939.50%0.7443.10%4.45%39.50%0.9622.30%1.0623.20%1.1194.60%齐鲁银行6.7674.80%0.7764.10%3.46%74.80%0.9458.80%1.1160.70%0.8688.60%兰州银行7.2015.90%0.456.30%4.21%15.90%1.0052.20%0.6453.70%1.0597.50%西安银行6.4940.20%0.5015.70%2.57%40.20%0.9015.00%0.7219.20%0.6446.10%渝农商行6.6189.70%0.6077.30%4.40%89.70%0.9268.50%0.8682.90%1.0949.50%沪农商行6.6575.40%0.6564.80%5.09%75.40%0.9247.00%0.9449.70%1.2690.30%青农商行6.0233.40%0.4923.30%3.73%33.40%0.8416.00%0.7018.10%0.9396.10%常熟银行5.572.70%0.795.10%5.35%2.70%0.770.10%1.130.20%1.3399.60%紫金银行7.0250.90%0.526.50%3.53%50.90%0.9720.60%0.7414.50%0.8898.30%无锡银行5.7425.60%0.607.60%3.62%25.60%0.800.50%0.851.20%0.9095.70%张家港行5.5219.10%0.607.00%6.76%19.10%0.770.20%0.862.10%1.6899.70%苏农银行5.1620.30%0.5617.40%4.90%20.30%0.720.20%0.802.10%1.2299.50%江阴银行5.3420.70%0.6121.60%4.21%20.70%0.740.10%0.883.90%1.0595.30%表5：上市银行绝对/相对估值、股息率及所处分位情况瑞丰银行5.3610.70%0.569.80%3.65%10.70%0.7444.70%0.8046.40%0.9199.10%工商银行H5.5767.40%0.5143.60%5.58%67.40%0.7739.20%0.7346.20%1.3943.20%建设银行H5.5772.90%0.5440.70%5.65%72.90%0.7750.30%0.7745.80%1.4041.90%农业银行H7.0299.10%0.6972.60%4.45%99.10%0.9799.20%0.9999.40%1.115.00%中国银行H5.7985.80%0.4851.40%5.94%85.80%0.8080.70%0.6968.30%1.4831.00%邮储银行H7.4382.60%0.5929.90%5.15%82.60%1.0359.50%0.8538.70%1.2883.40%交通银行H6.3797.60%0.4953.40%5.94%97.60%0.8893.10%0.7077.70%1.4831.30%H7.8143.20%1.0329.60%4.50%43.20%1.0816.80%1.4718.30%1.1288.00%民生银行H6.1197.00%0.2839.60%5.46%97.00%0.8594.60%0.4144.90%1.3626.80%中国H4.8571.10%0.3535.20%6.45%71.10%0.6755.10%0.5018.60%1.6049.20%浙商银行H4.8933.30%0.3618.70%6.73%33.30%0.6810.90%0.514.60%1.6792.10%渤海银行H3.7238.70%0.1624.20%0.00%38.70%0.5239.90%0.2346.00%0.000.00%重庆银行H4.8683.90%0.4052.60%5.56%83.90%0.6793.00%0.5882.90%1.3840.60%郑州银行H7.4386.30%0.2330.30%1.71%86.30%1.0374.90%0.3327.20%0.4368.00%青岛银行H4.9921.50%0.5732.00%4.06%21.50%0.6912.10%0.8230.30%1.0136.30%江西银行H6.0234.00%0.104.20%6.03%34.00%0.8331.00%0.149.00%1.5097.50%重庆农村商业银行H5.6892.10%0.5057.70%5.16%92.10%0.7992.50%0.7290.50%1.2812.70%注：所处分位指2017年至今表6：A+H上市银行AH溢价率及所处分位情况所处分位2025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初工商银行89.40%41.66%41.52%43.62%41.47%40.28%42.19%33.89%43.43%建设银行55.10%29.97%29.98%32.50%29.83%27.96%28.34%27.59%46.48%农业银行97.70%47.39%45.18%49.27%43.04%41.31%39.24%37.71%30.17%中国银行77.50%39.76%38.02%36.63%36.40%34.13%36.46%33.58%49.88%邮储银行35.50%15.02%15.75%17.52%15.88%16.42%20.11%17.51%33.92%交通银行19.90%14.06%14.48%14.08%14.27%12.72%13.19%13.93%31.31%1.30%-7.85%-7.70%-7.13%-4.90%-4.98%-2.31%-4.94%6.10%民生银行0.90%7.69%6.72%6.32%4.76%6.07%8.84%7.22%29.65%1.60%14.77%13.76%11.79%13.96%15.37%14.72%12.26%38.38%浙商银行51.30%29.55%27.69%29.80%28.21%28.00%26.62%24.55%41.55%重庆银行7.50%45.66%45.09%47.06%36.84%36.04%33.93%34.35%64.82%郑州银行6.90%72.13%74.63%74.18%72.86%70.77%69.57%74.26%120.17%青岛银行49.30%32.36%27.38%25.50%24.70%22.68%21.64%23.90%44.98%渝农商行3.60%18.71%16.10%20.24%20.90%24.67%16.02%17.61%40.50%注：所处分位指2017年至今五、转债表现：本期银行转债平均价格上涨0.12%0.66+1.34%+0.23%、+0.19%9.93%9.34%8.04%2025年1031只129.92转债名称价率(%)转股溢价率(%)转债名称价率(%)转股溢价率(%)平价底价溢价率(%)最新转债价格(元)平价(元)底价(元)触发强赎正股涨幅(%)最新余额(亿元)比例(%)剩余期限(年)最新转股价格(元)常银转债25.258.5415.39129.92119.69103.738.6159.990.012.875.89重银转债15.7314.850.77126.73110.34109.5017.82129.990.012.399.67兴业转债12.8228.42-12.14122.6095.47108.6636.17413.5217.302.1621.19上银转债11.0413.47-2.14125.66110.74113.1617.40199.780.111.248.57青农转债3.4136.89-24.46110.2080.50106.5761.4950.000.010.824.00紫银转债1.6442.45-28.65110.4477.53108.6667.6745.000.010.733.65表8（周）2025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初以来重银转债1.34%-0.56%1.78%1.46%0.63%0.41%-2.55%7.43%常银转债0.23%-0.47%0.78%0.16%-0.07%0.61%-2.06%3.38%上银转债0.19%-0.59%1.60%1.21%0.00%1.37%-2.76%4.67%浦发转债0.00%0.20%0.14%-0.31%0.06%-0.10%-0.93%1.65%兴业转债-0.18%0.01%1.02%0.59%-0.35%1.21%-2.74%8.63%紫银转债-0.28%-0.36%0.35%0.26%-0.05%-0.45%-0.72%-0.60%青农转债-1.08%-0.10%0.30%0.67%-0.86%1.18%-2.05%0.68%表9（周）2025/10/312025/10/242025/10/172025/10/102025/10/32025/9/262025/9/19年初以来常银转债9.93%9.34%12.04%3.39%2.15%9.63%11.30%319.94%紫银转债9.34%10.98%11.34%4.49%3.67%14.41%15.09%298.23%青农转债8.04%4.61%10.16%2.61%2.76%9.82%11.24%346.44%重银转债6.50%5.64%11.83%2.65%2.53%15.70%17.55%246.90%上银转债5.75%7.13%7.53%2.83%1.88%12.99%16.37%234.63%兴业转债4.46%7.37%6.01%2.10%1.71%7.16%8.82%163.83%浦发转债0.00%63.47%29.43%7.66%8.80%13.50%13.27%413.57%图17：银行转债绝对收与相对收益（元） 图18：银行转债、银行块、可转债指数累收益率0.290.280.270.260.250.240.230.22

银行转债加权平均价格/中证可转换债券指数银行转债加权平均价格(右轴)

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中证银指数 银行转债权平价格(右)2024-112024-122025-012024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-10图19：银行转债债性股性一览（截至2025年10月31日）302520重银纯债溢价率(%)重银纯债溢价率(%)上银转债105紫银紫银转债0 0.00%转债0 5

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20 25 转股溢价率(%)

35 40 45图20：银行转债价位估值一览（截至2025年10月31日）紫银转债青农转债紫银转债青农转债兴业转债重银转债上银转债常银转债4035转股溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)252015105090

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135最新转债价格(元)六、盈利预测跟踪：25年利润增速预期整体上修3025）。本期A股银行25年净利润增速、营业收入增速一致预期环比上期分别变动0.18pct、-0.13pct25-0.06pct-0.16pct-0.04pct25-0.19pct、-0.09pct0.19pct、-0.15pct。较最新财报披环比上期净利润 评级机 最新财报披露露前变动 变动 2025/10/31 2025/10/24 2025/10/172025/10/102025/10/3 2025/9/262025E 构家数 同比较最新财报披环比上期净利润 评级机 最新财报披露露前变动 变动 2025/10/31 2025/10/24 2025/10/172025/10/102025/10/3 2025/9/262025E 构家数 同比（PCT） （PCT）工商银行13-35.27-0.020.52%-0.59%-0.57%-0.57%-0.57%-0.57%-0.49%建设银行14-31.420.640.52%0.94%0.30%0.30%0.30%0.30%0.30%农业银行12-35.560.663.28%2.01%1.35%1.38%1.38%1.38%1.57%中国银行17-27.940.061.12%0.71%0.65%0.65%0.65%0.65%0.65%邮储银行18-14.230.461.07%0.99%0.53%0.53%0.53%0.53%0.43%交通银行7-34.69-0.152.16%1.45%1.60%1.60%1.60%1.60%1.60%招商银行23-31.29-0.220.44%0.14%0.37%0.37%0.37%0.37%0.37%兴业银行19-21.710.630.59%-0.03%-0.66%-0.66%-0.66%-0.66%-0.66%浦发银行13-46.290.389.76%7.49%7.11%7.11%7.11%7.11%7.48%民生银行44.580.00-7.09%0.51%0.51%0.51%0.51%-0.90%-4.87%光大银行12-9.680.00-3.40%-3.19%-3.19%-4.12%-4.12%-4.03%-4.03%平安银行21-12.37-0.46-3.50%-4.22%-3.76%-3.68%-3.43%-3.43%-3.43%华夏银行40.00-2.31%-10.40%-10.40%浙商银行7-14.730.68-8.76%-0.40%-1.09%-1.09%-1.09%-1.09%-0.23%北京银行13-29.72-1.940.21%0.51%2.45%0.42%-1.46%-1.46%-1.46%江苏银行18-23.050.008.87%7.11%7.11%7.11%6.69%6.69%6.69%宁波银行26-45.110.968.70%7.00%6.04%6.09%6.09%6.07%6.07%南京银行16-35.300.008.16%6.40%6.40%6.69%6.69%6.69%6.69%杭州银行20-54.40-0.3414.53%14.72%15.06%15.06%15.06%14.88%14.88%成都银行23-67.72-1.095.02% 5.45%6.54%6.54%6.54%6.54%6.54%长沙银行9-32.980.004.52%4.05%4.05%3.66%3.66%3.66%3.66%重庆银行15-11.132.5810.42%7.75%5.17%4.52%4.52%4.52%4.52%贵阳银行1-1.78%郑州银行00.48%青岛银行11-29.010.0115.86%15.74%15.73%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%苏州银行18-37.53-0.087.43%5.64%5.72%5.72%5.72%5.68%5.68%齐鲁银行9-73.390.9916.14%15.12%14.13%14.78%14.78%14.78%14.78%兰州银行00.63%西安银行05.32%渝农商行16-14.49-0.423.32%4.88%5.30%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%沪农商行15-14.96-0.010.93%1.02%1.03%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%青农商行03.92%常熟银行31-45.420.0011.64%12.27%12.27%12.52%12.48%12.48%12.26%紫金银行0-10.90%8.22%8.22%8.22%8.22%无锡银行3-33.741.713.71%4.19%2.48%2.48%2.48%2.48%2.46%张家港行4-33.830.055.71%3.91%3.86%3.86%3.86%3.86%3.86%苏农银行6-45.92-1.085.05%5.11%6.20%6.20%6.20%6.20%6.20%江阴银行6-87.841.0111.71%12.02%11.01%11.01%11.01%11.01%9.77%瑞丰银行11-54.30-0.195.50%6.02%6.21%6.21%6.21%6.21%6.21%；注：表中数据为 一致预期预测值营收 评级机较最新财报披露环比上期变动最新财报披露2025/10/31 2025/10/242025/10/17营收 评级机较最新财报披露环比上期变动最新财报披露2025/10/31 2025/10/242025/10/172025/10/10 2025/10/3 2025/9/262025E 构家数前变动（PCT）（PCT） 同比工商银行13-26.14-0.142.17%-0.70%-0.56%-0.56%-0.56%-0.56%-0.56%建设银行14-27.34-0.150.82%-0.75%-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%农业银行12-33.670.111.97%1.22%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.20%中国银行17-35.48-1.172.69%0.27%1.43%1.43%1.43%1.43%1.43%邮储银行18-34.470.221.82%1.70%1.48%1.48%1.48%1.48%1.43%交通银行7-30.290.611.80%1.02%0.42%0.42%0.42%0.42%0.42%招商银行23-30.680.06-0.51%0.13%0.08%0.08%0.08%0.08%0.08%兴业银行19-36.10-0.27-1.82%-0.58%-0.31%-0.31%-0.31%-0.31%-0.31%浦发银行13-26.220.131.88%2.63%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.23%民生银行