房地产 -领先指标 - 2025 年 12 月 Leading Indicators - December 2025

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keyeconomicandfinancialmetricsimpactingpropertymarketsDec-25

Risinginflationcloudsdirectionofnextratemove

INFLATIONSURPRISESAGAIN

InflationisgatheringmomentumwithsecondupwardsurpriseAnnualconsumerpriceindexinflation(%)

AllgroupscpI——Trimmedmean

TheABS'snewmonthlycpIdatacameinmuchhigherthanexpectedwith

annualheadlineinflationrising3.8%inoctoberandtrimmedmeaninflation

roseby3.3%.AlthoughtheRBAwill

placemoreweightonthequarterlycpIreadingduringthisdatatransition,

elevatedandbroad-basedinflation

pressuresinthisnewmonthlyinflationmeasurewillnotbeignored.ThisdataindicatesupsiderisktotheRBA's

source:knightFrankResearch,ABS

recentinflationforecasts,

Risinginvestorloanssignalpentuphousingdemand

Housingcreditgrowth,sixmonthendedannualised,seasonallyandbreakadjusted(%)——Investorowner-occupierTotal

2025

source:knightFrankResearch,ABSAPRA,RBA

RISEINCASHRATEEXPECTATIONS

Theprogressiveriseincashrateexpectations

RBAcashrateimpliedbymarketpricingattheendofeachmonth(%)

JanuaryMarchMayJuly

4.5septemberNovember----cashRate

over2025,cashrateexpectationsfelltoalowof2.9%followingtheustariff

announcementinApril.However,thesehavesubstantiallyunwoundoverH2

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2025withtheRBAnowmorehawkish

ontheoutlookforinflationand

employmenteasinginlinewith

expectations.Followingtheoctober

inflationprint,marketpricingindicatesthatthenextmoveinthecashratemay

20252026

beahike,notacut.

source:knightFrankResearch,RBA,Macrobond,ASX

HOUSEPRICEGROWTHMAYSUPPORTCONSUMPTIONREBOUND

NewlendingfordwellingsrosesharplyinQ3,drivenbyincreaseddemand

frominvestors.Thisindicatesgrowinghousingdemand,whichhasalready

beguntotranslateintohouseprices

whichgrew7.5%intheyeartoNOV-25.Anothercyclicalupswinginhouse

pricescouldboosthouseholdwealth,

consumption,andsupportGDpgrowth.ModellingintheRBANovembersoMPestimatedthata10%increaseinhousepricesincreasesGDpby0.7%(allotheraspectsheldconstant),ofwhicharound0.4%reflectsincreasedconsumption.

Australiakeyforecasts

RealGDPgrowth

(Q22025,y/y%)

Unemploymentrate(September2025,%)

CoreCPIinflation(October2025,y/y%)

Cashratetarget

(November2025,%)

10-yearbondyield(28November2025,%)

Latest

1.8

4.5

3.3

3.60

4.5

Year-end2025(f)*

1.8

4.4

2.6

3.60

4.3

source:knightFrankResearch,*oxfordEconomics,ABS,RBA

knight

Frank

Businessconfidenceandconditionscontinuetoshowpositivesigns

PMlsliftinNovember

compositepMIoutputIndex(above50indicatesexpansion)

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

LatestLastquarter1yearago

Nov-25Aug-25May-25Feb-25Nov-24

Australia52.655.550.550.650.2

China

0.0

51.9

49.6

51.5

52.3

EuroArea

52.4

51.0

50.2

50.2

48.3

Japan

52.0

52.0

50.2

52.0

50.1

UK

50.5

53.5

50.3

50.5

50.5

US

54.8

54.6

53.0

51.6

54.9

Businessconfidenceandconditionsrise

NABsurvey,balanceofpositiveandnegativeresponses

——BusinessconditionsBusinessconfidence

source:knightFrankResearch,NAB,Macrobond

unemploymentcontinuestoriseunemploymentrate(trendadjusted)

AustraliaQld

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

NSW

WA

Oct-25Jul-25Apr-25Jan-25Oct-24

Australia

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

NSW

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

Vic

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.5

Qld

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

4.0

WA

4.2

4.1

3.8

3.5

3.6

Forwardordersstilltrendingup

Forwardordersindex,balanceofpositiveandnegative

source:knightFrankResearch,NAB

knight

Frank

Householdspendingcontinuestosteadilyimprove

HouseholdspendingslowlyrisingHouseholdspendinggrowth(%)

volume(q/q)volume(y/y)value-currentprices(y/y)

source:knightFrankResearch,ABS

Percentagechangefrom

Sep-25Jun-25Mar-25Dec-24Sep-24

Householdspending,volume(q/q%)0.20.90.61.00.1

Householdspending,volume(y/y%)

2.7

2.6

1.1

1.9

0.7

Householdspending,value(y/y%)

5.1

4.4

3.8

3.7

2.8

consumersentimentturnspositive

confidenceindex,valueabove100signaloptimism

westpac/MelbourneInstituteAveragesince2006

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

Householdsspendonfunandhealth

Annualgrowthinvalueofspendingbycategory*(%)

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond*ExcludesAlcoholicbeveragesandtobacco

LatestinSep-25

m/m(%)y/y(%)

Other-0.18.7

Health0.78.1

Recreation&Culture1.17.8

Food0.66.4

Total0.25.1

Hotels,Cafes&Restaurants-0.35.0

Transport-0.44.7

Clothing&Footwear-0.63.7

HouseholdGoods0.43.5

Alcohol&Tobacco-0.8-17.3

WA,SAandQLDdrivehouseholdspendingAnnualgrowthinvalueofspendingbystate(%)

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

knightFrank

Increasedinflationrisksdriveapullbackinratecutexpectations

InflationrisessharplytoaboveRBAtargetAnnualgrowthinconsumerpriceindex(y/y%)

HeadlinecpI,seasonallyadjusted——Trimmedmeaninflation

source:knightFrankResearch,ABS

Note:DatatransitionsfromquarterlytomonthlyinApril2025.

Oct-25Jul-25Apr-25

HeadlineCPI(m/msa,%)0.30.90.3

3.9

3.0

2.4

HeadlineCPI(y/ysa,%)

Trimmedmeaninflation(y/y,%)3.33.03.1

MarketsexpectnofurtherratecutsHistoricratesandindicativeRBAoutlook

cashRateTargetNAB

MarketpricingoxfordEconomics

5%

4%

3%

2%

20192020202120222023202420252026

source:knightFrankResearch,NAB,oxfordEconomics,ASX

Nov-25Feb-26May-26Aug-26Nov-26

Cashratetarget3.60

OxfordEconomics

3.60

3.60

3.35

3.10

NAB

3.60

3.60

3.60

3.60

Marketpricing

3.57

3.57

3.59

3.64

Month-end

GlobalinflationhascrepthigherHeadlinecpI(y/y,%)

AustraliaUSUKEuroarea

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

Oct-25Jul-25Apr-25Jan-25Oct-24

Australia(y/y,%)3.83.02.42.42.4

0.0

2.1

2.3

3.0

2.6

US(y/y,%)

UK(y/y,%)3.63.93.53.02.3

Euroarea(y/y,%)2.12.02.22.52.0

yieldsrisewithlessratecutsexpectedyieldbyswap/bondduration(%)

——2-yearswap5-yearswap10-yearbond

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

Nov-25Aug-25May-25Feb-25Nov-24

2-yearswap

3.86

3.53

3.57

3.81

4.10

5-yearswap

4.06

3.72

3.75

4.11

4.31

10-yearbond

4.42

4.27

4.33

4.43

4.57

Monthlyaverage

Monthlyaverage

Monthlyaverage

knight

Frank

GlobalfinancialmarketswerevolatileinNovember

EquitysfallsharplybeforereboundingGlobalequities,priceindices,1Jan2024=100

——ASX200S&P500——Nasdaq——EurosTOXX

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

MarketvolatilityliftswithequityuncertaintyUSVIxindex-measureofmarketvolatility(Index)

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

Percentagechangefrom

Aug-25May-25Feb-25Nov-24

ASX200-2.44.53.14.5

S&P500

5.2

16.1

11.6

13.7

Nasdaq

7.7

23.5

17.7

21.