房地产 -波兰仓储市场 2025 年第三季度 Warehouse Market in Poland - Q3 2025

Warehouse

marketinPoland

Q32025

KnightFrank’sComprehensiveGuidetoPoland’sWarehouseMarket

.pl/en/research

WAREHOUSEMARKET

Poland

Q32025

Existing

warehousestock36.4msqm

Supply

underconstruction1.6msqm

Vacancyrate

8.2%

Newsupply

(Q1-Q32025)

1.5msqm

Take-up

(Q1-Q32025)

4.5msqm

Standardleasetermsinwarehousebuildings

2

Askingrents

forwarehousespace

EUR/sqm/month

BIG-BOX

3.80-5.00

CityLogistics

5.00-7.50

Askingrents

forofficespace

EUR/sqm/month

10.00-12.50

Servicecharge

PLN/sqm/month

4.00-7.00

Rent-freeperiod

1-1.5miesiąca

ThedemandforlogisticsspaceinPolandremainsrobust.Inthefirstthreequartersof2025,4.5millionm²wereleased,markinga20%increasecomparedtothesameperiodin2024.Theinvestmentmarketcontinuestodemonstratestrongactivity,withthevolumeoflogisticstransactionsrisingby18%toEUR873million.ThecontinueddominanceofglobalinvestorsunderscoresPoland’spositionasoneofthemostattractiveandstablelogisticsmarketsintheregion.

SUPPLY

Poland’smodernlogisticsstockcurrentlyexceeds36.4millionsqmandcontinuestogrow,althoughthepaceofexpansionhasmoderatedcomparedwiththerecordyearsof2021–2023,whenannualdeliveriesrangedbetween3.4and4.4millionsqm.

InQ1–Q32025,1.55millionsqmofnewwarehousespacewasdelivered,representinga26%declinecomparedwiththesameperiodin2024.Thevolumeofspaceunderconstructionremainsbelowthelevelsobservedinpreviouspeakyears.Nevertheless,sinceQ22025,agradualrevivalindeveloperactivityhasbeennoted,withthevolumeunderconstructionincreasingto1.5millionsqm,reflectinga6%growthquarter-on-quarter,despitebeing20%lowerthanthesameperiodlastyear.

ThelargestshareofnewdevelopmentsisconcentratedintheWarsawregion(approx.

527,000sqm),theTricityarea(221,000sqm),andUpperSilesia(190,000sqm).

Amodestimprovementindevelopersentimentisalsoreflectedinanincreasedwillingnesstocommencespeculativedevelopments,althoughtheirshareremainsbelowthelevelsrecordedduringthepeakyearsof2021–2023.

AttheendofQ32025,almost55%ofspaceunderconstructionwaspre-let,comparedwithnearly59%inQ1.Notably,thisratioissignificantlylowerinthemostmaturemarkets,withtheWarsawregionandUpperSilesiareportingonlyabout30%ofpre-letspace.

TAKE-UP

Take-upinthePolishwarehouseandlogisticsmarketcontinuedtostrengthenforthesecondconsecutiveyear.Inthefirstthreequartersof2025,nearly4.5millionsqmofspacewasleased,a20%increasecomparedwiththesameperiodin2024.Q3aloneaccountedfor1.6millionsqm,reflectinga42%year-on-yearrise.

Despitethesolidoccupiermomentum,leasingactivityremainsheavilyfocusedonrenegotiations,whichaccountedfor47%oftotalvolumeinQ1–Q32025,whilenewleasesrepresented44%.

ThehighestleasingvolumesinQ3wererecordedinWarsaw,CentralPoland,andWrocławregions,togetherrepresentingmorethan60%oftotaltake-up.InWarsawandCentralPoland,demandwasdrivenprimarilybylogisticsoperatorsandretailchains,consistentwithongoinggrowthinretailsales.

Lightmanufacturingalsocontinuedtogainimportance,accountingfor16%ofleasedspaceoverthefirstthreequartersof2025,withdemandconcentratedinwesternandsouth-westernPoland.

Lookingahead,theexpectedreboundinindustrialproduction,combinedwitharesilientconsumermarket,islikelytosupportfurtherstrengtheningofdemandforlogisticsspaceinthecomingquarters.

KNIGHTFRANK

VACANCYRATE

AttheendofQ32025,thevacancyratestoodat8.21%.Despitetheconstrainedlevelofnewsupply,theratedeclinedonlymarginally,reflectingthefactthattenantactivityremainedpredominantlyfocusedonleaserenegotiationsratherthanexpansions.Asdemandcontinuestofirm,furtherreductionsinvacancyareanticipatedoverthecomingquarters.

RENTALLEVELS

Headlinerentalratesremainstable.Forbig-boxlogisticsfacilities,rentsrangefromEUR3.8toEUR5.0persqmpermonth,whileurbancitylogisticsspaceispricedbetweenEUR5.0andEUR7.5persqm.ThehighestrentallevelscontinuetoberecordedwithintheadministrativeboundariesofWarsawandKraków.

INVESTMENTMARKET

TotalinvestmentvolumeinthewarehousesectorreachedEUR873millioninthefirstthreequartersoftheyear,representingan18%increasecomparedwiththesameperiodinthepreviousyear.Thesectoraccountedfor34%ofallrealestateinvestmentactivityoverthisperiod,maintainingitsstrongpositionwithinthebroadermarket.

EUR873m

WarehouseinvestmentvolumeQ1-Q32025

Themajorityoftransactionswerecompletedbylargeglobalinvestors,typicallytargetingstable,low-riskassetswithsolidlong-termgrowthprospects.ThistrendhighlightsthecontinuedattractivenessofthePolishlogisticsmarket.

PrimeyieldsremainedstableinQ3,atapproximately6.25%.

GrowthofwarehousestockinPoland

40

30

20

10

msqm201920202021202220232024Q32025

Source:KnightFrank

Developmentpipeline:underconstructionandpre-let

Underconstruction

Pre-leasingrate

Constructionsstartedinthequater

2

1.5

1

0.5

msqm

2.5

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2024202420242024202520252025

Source:KnightFrank

Warehouseinvestmentvolume

Q1Q2Q3Q4Numberoftransactions

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

EURm

2019202020212022202320242025

Source:KnightFrank

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Polishwarehousemarketdynamics:newsupply,take-upandvacancyrate

NewsupplyTake-upVacancyrate

8.2%

88%

66%

44%

22%

msqm0%

201920202021202220232024Q1-Q3

2025

Source:KnightFrank

WAREHOUSEMARKET-POLAND3

4KNIGHTFRANK

Transportationinfrastructure

HeatmapofwarehousestockinPoland

S6

LITHUANIA

High-speedroads

S22

KOSZALIN

S11

GDAŃSK

S7

5,200km

S61

S16

A1

S3S6

OLSZTYN

SZCZECIN

S5

S61

S10

S5

High-speedroadsunderconstruction

BYDGOSZCZ

BIAŁYSTOK

S7

S8

TORUŃ

400km

Intermodalterminals

45

Cargo

ports

4

Cargoairports

S3

GORZÓWWLKP.

S5

S10

S19

S8

BELARUS

POZNAŃ

A2

A1

WARSZAWA

CPK

A2

A2

A2

ŁÓDŹ

ZIELONAGÓRA

A18S3

S8S7

S17S19

S5

GERMANY

S11

S12

RADOM

LUBLIN

S8

A4

A4

A8

A1

WROCŁAW

S74

S17

S19

KIELCE

S8

OPOLE

A4

A1KATOWICE

S1

UKRAINE

KRAKÓWA4

RZESZÓW

CZECHIA

S19

S52

S7

SLOVAKIA

S3

7

Source:KnightFrank

RegionalbreakdownofPoland’swarehousemarketQ32025

Region

Existing

stock

(sqm)

Vacancy

rate

Newsupply

(sqm)

Under

construction

(sqm)

Take-up

(sqm)

Asking

rents

(EUR/sqm/

month)

Unemployment

rate

Averagemonthly

salariesin

transportand

warehousesector

(PLN)

Warsaw

7,100,000

5.2%

57,000

530,000

470,000

3.8-7.5

4.4%

8,800

UpperSilesia

6,200,000

7.5%

20,000

190,000

165,000

4.0-6.0

4.3%

8,800

CentralPoland

5,100,000

9.5%

145,000

90,000

250,000

3.8-4.5

6.2%

8,400

LowerSilesia

4,600,000

9.9%

0

110,000

280,000

4.0-4.7

5.2%

8,100

Poznań

3,600,000

9.7%

47,000

35,000

70,000

3.8-4.5

3.5%

8,200

Tricity

1,800,000

10.3%

8,800

220,000

110,000

3.8-4.5

5.2%

9,700

Szczecin

1,300,000

2.1%

0

80,000

130,000

3.8-4.5

7.3%

9,800

Krakow

1,170,000

3.3%

33,000

8,000

37,000

4.0-6.0

4.6%

7,600

Poland36,440,0008.2%400,0001,600,0001,600,0003.8-7.55.6%8,500

ThemodernwarehousemarketinPolandisconcentratedacrosseightmajorregions:Warsawanditssurroundings,UpperSilesia,CentralPoland,GreaterPoland,LowerSilesia,Szczecinregion,theTricityandKraków.However,rapidinfrastructuredevelopmentandincreasingcompetitionforlabourarereshapinglocationstrategies.Developersaremovingbeyondtraditionalhubs,targetingemerginglocationssuchaswesternPoland(neartheGermanborder),Rzeszów,Kielce,LublinandtheKuyavianregion.

WAREHOUSEMARKET-POLAND5

SoldprodcutionofindustryRetailsalesinPoland

(averagemonthly2021=100)

125

120

115

110

105

100

01

2025

02

2025

04

2025

03

2025

05

2025

06

2025

07

2025

09

2025

10

2025

08

2025

Source:StatisticsPoland

Onlineretailsalesgrowth

1.5

1.0

0.5

PLNtrn

2019202020212022202320242025f

f-forecastSource:StatisticsPoland

PurchasingManagers’Index

(previousyear’scorrespondingperiod=100)

114

112

110

108

106

104

102

100

60

50

40

30

01

2025

03

2025

04

2025

05

2025

06

2025

07

2025

08

2025

09

2025

10

2025

02

2025

202020212022202320242025

Source:StatisticsPolandSource:S&PGlobal

Labourcosts(EUR/hour)

50

40

30

20

10

0

BelgiumNetherlandsFranceGermanySpainSlovakiaCzechiaPolandLithuaniaHungaryRomania

Source:Eurostat,2024

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Minimalwage(EUR/month)

NetherlandsGermanyBelgiumFranceSpainPolandLithuaniaCzechiaSlovakiaRomaniaHungary

Source:Eurostat,July2025

knightFrank

CONTACTSINPOLAND:

+48225965050

www.KnightF.pl

RESEARCH

DorotaLachowska

dorota.lachowska@

INDUSTRIALAGENCY

PrzemysławPiętak

przemyslaw.pietak@

CAPITALMARKETS

KrzysztofCipiur

krzysztof.cipiur@

VALUATION&ADVISORY

MałgorzataKrzystek

malgorzata.krzystek@

AsoneofthelargestandmostexperiencedresearchteamsoperatingacrossPolishcommercialrealestatemarkets,KnightFrankPolandprovidesstrategicadvice,forecastingandconsultancyservicestoawiderangeofcommercialclientsincludingdevelopers,investmentfunds,financialandcorporateinstitutionsaswellasprivateindividuals.Weoffer:

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