金融工程快评：2025年12月沪深核心指数成分股调整冲击测算

的投资机会。我们对跟踪不同指数的被动产品的规模进行了统计，仅考虑ETF、普通场外指数基金以及202528LOF2025930202528100A56只，其中跟踪规模前三的指数分别为沪深050008385318342亿元。表1：被动产品跟踪规模超过100亿元的A股股票指数（截至20251128）跟踪指数代码跟踪指数简称总规模(亿元)发布机构000300.SH沪深30011813.28中证指数有限公司000510.CSI中证A5001953.51中证指数有限公司000016.SH上证501883.42中证指数有限公司000905.SH中证5001730.12中证指数有限公司000688.SH科创501698.79中证指数有限公司000852.SH中证10001660.81中证指数有限公司399975.SZ证券公司1431.42中证指数有限公司399006.SZ创业板指1349.07深圳证券交易所000685.SH科创芯片544.12中证指数有限公司399997.SZ中证白酒473.30中证指数有限公司H30590.CSI机器人445.76中证指数有限公司399673.SZ创业板50410.28深圳证券交易所930713.CSICS人工智404.30中证指数有限公司980017.CNI国证芯片(CNI)378.47深圳证券信息有限公司H30269.CSI红利低波359.12中证指数有限公司399986.SZ中证银行348.49中证指数有限公司931151.CSI光伏产业347.43中证指数有限公司931643.CSI科创创业50340.09中证指数有限公司399967.SZ中证军工313.41中证指数有限公司399989.SZ中证医疗302.35中证指数有限公司000922.CSI中证红利260.46中证指数有限公司399987.SZ中证酒247.73中证指数有限公司000010.SH上证180245.01中证指数有限公司000813.CSI细分化工230.84中证指数有限公司000932.SH800消费226.49中证指数有限公司931152.CSICS创新药225.90中证指数有限公司000698.SH科创100216.45中证指数有限公司H30184.CSI中证全指半导体210.49中证指数有限公司980022.CNI机器人产业209.62深圳证券信息有限公司950180.CSI科创AI203.19中证指数有限公司931719.CSICS电池202.75中证指数有限公司399976.SZCS新能车191.57中证指数有限公司930050.CSI中证A50187.12中证指数有限公司980032.CNI新能电池180.80深圳证券信息有限公司000015.SH红利指数176.83中证指数有限公司000913.SH300医药172.27中证指数有限公司H30035.CSI300非银163.15中证指数有限公司000819.SH有色金属156.72中证指数有限公司930955.CSI红利低波100146.90中证指数有限公司930901.CSI动漫游戏146.71中证指数有限公司930986.CSI金融科技145.48中证指数有限公司000860.CSI结构调整143.62中证指数有限公司399330.SZ深证100138.67深圳证券交易所931066.CSI军工龙头137.75中证指数有限公司930598.CSI稀土产业134.92中证指数有限公司399441.SZ生物医药134.38深圳证券信息有限公司980092.CNI自由现金流125.94深圳证券信息有限公司931160.CSI通信设备124.19中证指数有限公司399998.SZ中证煤炭123.18中证指数有限公司930997.CSI新能源车119.25中证指数有限公司899050.BJ北证50113.17北京证券交易所931743.CSI半导体材料设备108.03中证指数有限公司000680.SH科创综指107.88中证指数有限公司990001.CSI中华半导体芯片104.09中华证券交易服务有限公司000001.SH上证指数101.36中证指数有限公司930707.CSI中证畜牧101.35中证指数有限公司指数成分股调整冲击测算在对指数成分股调整冲击进行测算时，有如下处理细节：100月底指数公司实际公布的成分股权重，月底的成分股自由流通市值进行测算，值得注意的是，（N大样本等）设置了一定权重上限，我们在测算时均予以相应处理。15%2025年15%，指数定期调整时权重的再平衡亦会对个股造成冲击，因而我们在测算时对权重变化带来的冲击予以考虑。（包括调入调出或权重变化����∗���_���−Σ����∗ft�=� � ������_�����������_���548.65、47.91、34.87亿元。表2：预计净买入规模超过5亿元的股票（截至20251128）股票代码股票简称中信一级行业预计买入规模(亿元)预计卖出规模(亿元)预计净调整规模(亿元)近两周日均成交额(亿元)冲击系数300476.SZ胜宏科技电子84.8636.2148.6585.730.57002384.SZ东山精密电子48.000.0947.9136.681.31002625.SZ光启技术国防军工35.280.4134.8710.343.37601689.SH拓普集团汽车35.540.7934.7515.602.23603019.SH中科曙光计算机35.861.7934.0734.830.98600522.SH中天科技通信25.1525.157.883.19002594.SZ比亚迪汽车26.992.5224.4728.780.85688313.SH仕佳光子通信20.120.0020.1221.250.95600111.SH北方稀土有色金属23.384.1319.2533.390.58600930.SH华电新能电力及公用事业18.2318.234.474.08688220.SH翱捷科技-U电子21.464.6216.845.353.15002050.SZ三花智控家电17.541.7315.8160.750.26002157.SZ正邦科技农林牧渔15.6315.632.865.47600104.SH上汽集团汽车16.231.0815.156.632.29601211.SH国泰海通非银行金融16.801.7515.0513.851.09600938.SH中国海油石油石化15.930.9614.9711.231.33300255.SZ常山药业医药14.4214.4212.801.13300803.SZ指南针计算机24.3910.4313.9622.060.63603893.SH瑞芯微电子20.737.5813.1518.940.69688981.SH中芯国际电子16.514.1212.3949.720.25000651.SZ格力电器家电13.711.6812.0313.360.90688702.SH盛科通信-U电子15.273.5711.704.102.85300866.SZ安克创新电子11.720.4411.285.122.20600256.SH广汇能源石油石化11.150.0211.133.623.07600566.SH济川药业医药10.6210.622.304.61002230.SZ科大讯飞计算机11.341.0810.2616.510.62300548.SZ长芯博创通信9.629.6245.500.21688521.SH芯原股份电子21.6612.089.5725.130.38002600.SZ领益智造电子10.480.989.5015.110.63600750.SH江中药业医药9.379.371.118.44300953.SZ震裕科技机械8.090.157.945.121.55000001.SZ平安银行银行8.420.967.4612.850.58688382.SH益方生物-U医药7.360.007.363.362.19600803.SH新奥股份电力及公用事业7.500.157.352.972.48600757.SH长江传媒传媒7.287.281.066.84600873.SH梅花生物基础化工8.020.757.282.972.45601369.SH陕鼓动力机械7.4036.99002839.SZ张家港行银行7.080.017.071.345.28000708.SZ中信特钢钢铁7.110.087.032.702.60300251.SZ光线传媒传媒11.824.836.995.211.34601018.SH宁波港交通运输7.050.086.961.813.85002131.SZ利欧股份传媒6.920.026.9029.510.23002402.SZ和而泰电子16.439.656.7839.610.17600863.SH内蒙华电电力及公用事业7.280.616.672.432.74688068.SH热景生物医药6.526.523.311.97601916.SH浙商银行银行6.860.366.505.661.15300760.SZ迈瑞医疗医药7.551.146.4114.220.45601928.SH凤凰传媒传媒8.882.476.411.504.26002233.SZ塔牌集团建材7.401.336.070.708.69000429.SZ粤高速A交通运输6.820.766.061.035.91600030.SH中信证券非银行金融8.782.865.9227.490.22601666.SH平煤股份煤炭5.930.035.901.633.61002128.SZ电投能源有色金属5.820.035.795.291.09601001.SH晋控煤业煤炭5.790.035.763.111.85002139.SZ拓邦股份电子6.140.445.691.743.26601919.SH中远海控交通运输6.811.275.549.060.61300065.SZ海兰信国防军工5.425.427.750.70300972.SZ万辰集团农林牧渔8.583.32600546.SH山煤国际煤炭5.200.025.182.322.24300432.SZ富临精工汽车8.783.625.1611.700.44300409.SZ道氏技术基础化工30.85600036.SH银行10.405.375.0325.500.20冲击系数大于2的股票如下，其中塔牌集团、江中药业、陕鼓动力等股票预计冲击较大，冲击系数分别为8.69、8.44、6.99。表3：冲击系数大于2的股票（截至20251128）股票代码股票简称中信一级行业 预计买入规模(亿元) 预计卖出规模(亿元)预计净调整规模(亿元)近两周日均成交额(亿元)冲击系数002233.SZ塔牌集团建材7.401.336.070.708.69600750.SH江中药业医药9.379.371.118.44601369.SH陕鼓动力机械7.4036.99600502.SH安徽建工建筑4.960.164.800.706.87600757.SH长江传媒传媒7.287.281.066.84000429.SZ粤高速A交通运输6.820.766.061.035.91002157.SZ正邦科技农林牧渔15.6315.632.865.47600461.SH洪城环境电力及公用事业7.392.934.460.835.39002839.SZ张家港行银行7.080.017.071.345.28920029.BJ开发科技机械2.572.570.544.73600566.SH济川药业医药10.6210.622.304.61601928.SH凤凰传媒传媒8.882.476.411.504.26600930.SH华电新能电力及公用事业18.2318.234.474.08603967.SH中创物流交通运输1.300.011.290.333.94601018.SH宁波港交通运输7.050.086.961.813.85601666.SH平煤股份煤炭5.930.035.901.633.61002698.SZ博实股份机械3.593.591.033.47002625.SZ光启技术国防军工35.280.4134.8710.343.37600007.SH中国国贸房地产3.731.702.030.613.31002139.SZ拓邦股份电子6.140.445.691.743.26002737.SZ葵花药业医药1.990.121.880.583.23600522.SH中天科技通信25.1525.157.883.19688220.SH翱捷科技-U电子21.464.6216.845.353.15600256.SH广汇能源石油石化11.150.0211.133.623.07920438.BJ戈碧迦电子2.842.840.933.05600350.SH山东高速交通运输3.060.422.640.873.03920593.BJ鼎智科技机械2.040.271.770.612.91688702.SH盛科通信-U电子15.273.5711.704.102.85600863.SH内蒙华电电力及公用事业7.280.616.672.432.74000708.SZ中信特钢钢铁7.110.087.032.702.60600803.SH新奥股份电力及公用事业7.500.157.352.972.48600873.SH梅花生物基础化工8.020.757.282.972.45300972.SZ万辰集团农林牧渔8.583.32600104.SH上汽集团汽车16.231.0815.156.632.29002901.SZ大博医疗医药1.441.440.642.24600546.SH山煤国际煤炭5.200.025.182.322.24601689.SH拓普集团汽车35.540.7934.7515.602.23300866.SZ安克创新电子11.720.4411.285.122.20688382.SH益方生物-U医药7.360.007.363.362.19920982.BJ锦波生物医药3.570.133.441.582.18920839.BJ万通液压机械52.17603589.SH口子窖食品饮料2.250.002.251.082.08688131.SH皓元医药医药3.493.491.722.03预计净卖出规模超过5亿元的股票如下，其中阳光电源、中际旭创、寒武纪等股票预计净卖出规模较大，预计净卖出规模分别达到56.79、38.98、31.25亿元。表4：预计净卖出规模超过5亿元的股票（截至20251128）股票代码股票简称中信一级行业预计买入规模(亿元)预计卖出规模(亿元)预计净调整规模(亿元)近两周日均成交额(亿元)冲击系数300274.SZ阳光电源电力设备及新能源0.3057.09-56.79118.53-0.48300308.SZ中际旭创通信8.7747.75-38.98194.59-0.20688256.SH寒武纪-U电子2.2633.51-31.2583.37-0.37603259.SH药明康德医药0.4126.06-25.6529.92-0.86688041.SH海光信息电子5.5830.27-24.6943.18-0.57600941.SH中国移动通信1.4823.00-21.5211.58-1.86601766.SH中国中车机械0.0020.53-20.535.72-3.59300750.SZ宁德时代电力设备及新能源3.4622.01-18.55109.18-0.17688008.SH澜起科技电子6.1523.37-17.2225.85-0.67688012.SH中微公司电子0.8816.57-15.6931.12-0.50600282.SH南钢股份钢铁0.0315.40-15.371.70-9.02601225.SH陕西煤业煤炭1.1615.75-14.596.12-2.38600919.SH江苏银行银行1.3615.85-14.4910.78-1.34002129.SZTCL中环电力设备及新能源0.9814.91-13.9312.54-1.11000568.SZ泸州老窖食品饮料0.0913.58-13.4910.03-1.35000988.SZ华工科技通信1.4014.54-13.1328.04-0.47601600.SH中国铝业有色金属7.9320.53-12.6034.61-0.36601166.SH兴业银行银行2.7214.79-12.0715.26-0.79600048.SH保利发展房地产0.0611.96-11.918.95-1.33300390.SZ天华新能基础化工0.299.96-9.6746.27-0.21600000.SH浦发银行银行0.829.95-9.139.82-0.93002180.SZ纳思达电子9.10-9.102.86-3.18002027.SZ分众传媒传媒8.31-8.317.49-1.11688072.SH拓荆科技电子1.509.79-8.3018.58-0.45603993.SH洛阳钼业有色金属0.007.97-7.9626.83-0.30600177.SH雅戈尔纺织服装0.808.65-7.861.35-5.82002540.SZ亚太科技有色金属1.308.88-7.581.59-4.76601288.SH农业银行银行8.3815.95-7.5823.51-0.32600809.SH山西汾酒食品饮料0.477.87-7.398.26-0.90600039.SH四川路桥建筑3.4610.48-7.021.73-4.05601006.SH大秦铁路交通运输2.279.25-6.975.32-1.31600839.SH四川长虹家电0.006.93-6.937.63-0.91300059.SZ东方财富非银行金融0.277.18-6.9145.42-0.15601899.SH紫金矿业有色金属0.006.88-6.8850.02-0.14600377.SH宁沪高速交通运输0.006.80-6.800.98-6.93601825.SH沪农商行银行0.357.08-6.732.12-3.17002048.SZ宁波华翔汽车0.016.62-6.604.36-1.51688363.SH华熙生物医药1.888.34-6.461.08-5.97600895.SH张江高科房地产0.006.34-6.3428.52-0.22601009.SH南京银行银行0.797.03-6.235.18-1.20600332.SH白云山医药5.0311.22-6.192.31-2.68300502.SZ新易盛通信9.0415.19-6.14145.34-0.04600548.SH深高速交通运输6.09-6.090.39-15.65002543.SZ万和电气家电0.006.00-6.000.45-13.30000066.SZ中国长城计算机5.89-5.896.47-0.91688599.SH天合光能电力设备及新能源6.2112.08-5.879.66-0.61600276.SH恒瑞医药医药0.506.36-5.8718.14-0.32600406.SH国电南瑞电力设备及新能源0.005.67-5.678.77-0.65600019.SH宝钢股份钢铁4.319.88-5.576.10-0.91688559.SH海目星机械0.095.60-5.527.80-0.71688563.SH航材股份国防军工1.396.80-5.410.84-6.44601216.SH君正集团基础化工0.415.80-5.392.90-1.86002185.SZ华天科技电子0.065.44-5.385.64-0.95002032.SZ苏泊尔家电1.626.97-5.360.96-5.60601939.SH建设银行银行2.677.98-5.3111.76-0.45000937.SZ冀中能源煤炭0.005.21-5.210.92-5.66000625.SZ长安汽车汽车0.055.22-5.166.10-0.85600153.SH建发股份交通运输2.577.62-5.042.91-1.73300486.SZ东杰智能机械5.00-5.003.27-1.53冲击系数小于-2-15.65、-13.30、-10.52。表5：冲击系数小于-2的股票（截至20251128）股票代码股票简称中信一级行业预计买入规模(亿元)预计卖出规模(亿元)预计净调整规模(亿元)近两周日均成交额(亿元)冲击系数600548.SH深高速交通运输6.09-6.090.39-15.65002543.SZ万和电气家电0.006.00-6.000.45-13.30002646.SZ天佑德酒食品饮料3.76-3.760.36-10.52600282.SH南钢股份钢铁0.0315.40-15.371.70-9.02605377.SH华旺科技轻工制造4.67-4.670.53-8.83002867.SZ周大生商贸零售1.236.20-4.970.62-8.03600377.SH宁沪高速交通运输0.006.80-6.800.98-6.93688563.SH航材股份国防军工1.396.80-5.410.84-6.44600729.SH重庆百货商贸零售0.004.75-4.740.78-6.10688363.SH华熙生物医药1.888.34-6.461.08-5.97600177.SH雅戈尔纺织服装0.808.65-7.861.35-5.82000937.SZ冀中能源煤炭0.005.21-5.210.92-5.66002032.SZ苏泊尔家电1.626.97-5.360.96-5.60688606.SH奥泰生物医药1.25-1.250.23-5.35603519.SH立霸股份基础化工0.001.60-1.600.30-5.30002540.SZ亚太科技有色金属1.308.88-7.581.59-4.76688305.SH科德数控机械0.022.90-2.890.63-4.55605368.SH蓝天燃气电力及公用事业0.001.77-1.770.39-4.54688366.SH昊海生科医药1.56-1.560.35-4.49600039.SH四川路桥建筑3.4610.48-7.021.73-4.05688575.SH亚辉龙医药0.022.84-2.820.77-3.67601766.SH中国中车机械0.0020.53-20.535.72-3.59600997.SH开滦股份煤炭0.002.12-2.120.60-3.57920985.BJ海泰新能电力设备及新能源1.14-1.140.33-3.43000012.SZ南玻A建材0.012.73-2.720.81-3.37002327.SZ富安娜纺织服装1.66-1.660.50-3.31003028.SZ振邦智能家电0.82-0.820.25-3.25600587.SH新华医疗医药0.012.70-2.700.83-3.24002180.SZ纳思达电子9.10-9.102.86-3.18601825.SH沪农商行银行0.357.08-6.732.12-3.17600971.SH恒源煤电煤炭0.012.62-2.610.84-3.10300406.SZ九强生物医药0.011.45-1.440.48-2.98601799.SH星宇股份汽车3.438.41-4.981.71-2.91603566.SH普莱柯农