世界银行 -破产制度的经济影响证据、挑战与机遇 The Economic Impacts of Insolvency Regimes Evidence,Challenges and Opportunities

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THEECONOMICIMPACTSOFINSOLVENCYREGIMES

Evidence,ChallengesandOpportunities

FINANCEFINANCE

AntoniaMenezesandAkvileGropper

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THEECONOMICIMPACTSOFINSOLVENCYREGIMES

Evidence,ChallengesandOpportunities

AntoniaMenezesandAkvileGropper

schweizerischeEidgenossenschaftconfdrationsuisse

confederazionesvizzera

confederaziunsvizra

swissconfederation

FederalDepartmentofEconomicAffairs,EducationandResearchEAER

statesecretariatforEconomicAffairsSECO

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TABLE

OFCONTENTS

Acknowledgements·1Abstract·2

1.Introduction4

2.Context:BridgingtheKnowledgeGap—Relevanceto

EmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies(EMDEs)·63.Bird’sEyeView:UnpackingtheBenefitsofEfectiveInsolvency

·Frameworks84.ChallengesandOpportunities·205.Conclusions·22Annexes24

·References·27

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Acknowledgements

ThisnoteupdatestheWorldBankGroupInsolvencyandDebtResolutionProgram’sViewpoint“InsolvencyReformforCredit,Entrepreneurship,andGrowth”July2014edition.TheViewpointJuly2014editionwasbasedonresearchundertakenfortheteambyDrNatalieMrockova,MertonCollege,theUniversityofOxfordandProfessorKristinvanZwieten,UniversityofOxfordandauthoredbyAntoniaMenezes.

ThisrevisednotedrawsonfurtherresearchbyProfessorKristinvanZwieten.ThedevelopmentofthispublicationwasledbyAntoniaMenezes,SeniorFinancialSectorSpecialist,Finance,Competitiveness&InvestmentGlobalDepartmentandAkvileGropper,SeniorConsultant,Finance,Competitiveness&InvestmentGlobalDepartmentundertheoverallsupervisionandguidanceofJeanPesme(GlobalDirectorintheFinance,Competitiveness&InvestmentGlobalDepartment)andHarishNatarajan(PracticeManagerintheFinance,Competitiveness&InvestmentGlobalDepartment).WeextendourgratitudetotheWorldBank’sInsolvency&DebtResolutionteamfortheirinvaluableinputs:FernandoDancausa,AndresFedericoMartinez,NinaMocheva,SergioMuro,WillPaterson,HarryLawlessandSashaSvyryba.Thankstothevariousreviewerswhoprovidedhelpfulguidanceandsubstantiveinputs,includingErikFeyen(LeadFinancialSectorSpecialist,WorldBank),SteveKargman(KargmanAssociates),IsfandyarKhan(LeadFinancialSectorSpecialist,WorldBank),KlausAdolfoKoch-Saldarriaga,(SeniorPrivateSectorDevelopmentSpecialist,WorldBank),ElaineMacEachern(SeniorOperationsOfficer,IFC),MartinMelecky(LeadEconomist,WorldBank),GauravNayyar(LeadEconomist,WorldBank)andMatthewSaal(PrincipalIndustrySpecialist,IFC).

ThispublicationissupportedbyTheStateSecretariatforEconomicAffairs(SECO),whichimplementsSwitzerland’seconomicandtradepolicymeasuresforthebenefitofdevelopingcountries.ItcoordinatesitsactivitieswiththeSwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation(SDC)andthePeaceandHumanRightsDivision(PHRD)oftheFDFA.ThethreeadministrativeofficesimplementSwitzerland’sinternationalcooperationtogether.Formoreinformation,visit

www.seco-cooperation.ch

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Abstract

Thisnotereviewsempiricalevidenceontheimpactsofinsolvencyregimesonentrepreneurship,accesstocredit,preservationofviablebusinessesandjobs,andothervariablescontributingtoeconomicdevelopment.Itsobjectiveistoprovidepolicymakerswithevidencetoguideinsolvencyreformsthatfosterpositiveeconomicoutcomes.Thenotesummarizesfindingsofempiricalstudiesselectedafterawide-rangingliteraturereview.MostofthesestudiesarefromdevelopedeconomiesduetolimiteddatafromEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies(EMDEs).Somefindingssuggestthatrobustinsolvencyregimescanpromoteentrepreneurship,facilitateaccesstocredit,helppreserveviablebusinessesandjobs,managehighnonperformingloanlevels,andpreventthepersistenceofzombiefirms.Whilesignificantgapsremaininfullyunderstandingtheimpactofinsolvencylawsoneconomicgrowth,particularlyinEMDEs,theexistingliteratureindicatesthatwell-designedandeffectivelyimplementedinsolvencyframeworksarecrucial.Policymakersshouldconsiderthisevidencewhenaimingtostrikeanappropriatebalancebetweencreditoranddebtorrightsandtailoringtheinsolvencyframeworkstofitthelocalcontext.

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1WorldBank2022b.

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INTRODUCTION

TheEconomicImpactsofInsolvencyRegimes:Evidence,ChallengesandOpportunities

TheWorldBankregardsinsolvencyregimesasanimportanttoolforthetreatmentofunsustainabledebtlevels,bothforindividualsandfirms.The2022WorldDevelopmentReport,forinstance,highlightsthatnotonlydowell-functioninginsolvencysystemsestablishfairnessfordebtorsbyprovidingapathwayoutofperpetualindebtedness,buttheyalsohavethepotentialtodrivefutureinnovationandeconomicgrowthbyseparatingfinanciallydistressedbutstillviableenterprisesfromnonviableones.1Thishelpsfreeupcapitalforlendingtonewandproductiveenterprises.Also,irrespectiveofwhetherfinancialdistressactuallyoccurs,insolvencyregimescanhaveaprofoundimpactthroughoutafirm’slifecycle.Atinception,entrepreneursmaybemorewillingtoenterthemarketwhentheyarenotputtingtheirentirepersonallifesavingsatrisk.Banksandinvestorsmaybemorewillingtolendwhentheycanbetterpricetheriskshouldtheirloanorinvestmentfail.Whenbusinessenterprisesdofail,effectiveinsolvencyregimescanfacilitateassetreallocationtomoreproductiveusesvia

firmexit.

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Thisnoteexploressomeoftheevidence,drawnfromempiricalliterature,2oftherelationshipbetweeninsolvencyregimesandimportantvariablescontributingtoeconomicdevelopment.Focusingonevidencerelatingtotheeffectsofinsolvencyregimesforbusinessdebtors(bothindividualandincorporated),thenotesuggeststhatinsolvencyframeworkscanplayanimportantrolein(i)promotingentrepreneurship,(ii)reducingthecostandbroadeningaccesstocredit,(iii)facilitatingthesurvivalofviablefirms,and(iv)enhancingeconomicefficiencyandproductivitybyfacilitatingtheexitofunviablefirmsfromthemarket—allfundamentalcomponentsforprivatesectordevelopmentandimportantcontributorstofinancialsectorstability.

Inhighlightingthisevidence,thisnotedoesnotattempttoofferacompleteaccountofthewaysinwhichinsolvencyframeworkscancontributetoeconomicdevelopment,3butrathertopointtosomeofwhatmaybeatstakewhenpolicymakerspursuereforminthisarea.Itistothesepolicymakers—thelegislatorsandgovernmentministriesresponsibleforshapingacountry’sinsolvencyregime—thatthisnoteisprimarilyaddressed,althoughitmayalsoprovideusefulinsightsforthebusinesssector,financialindustry,andotherstakeholdersconcernedwithunderstandinghowdifferentcharacteristicsofinsolvencyregimesmayinfluencethebroadereconomiclandscape.

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2Onmethodology,seeAnnexI.

3Forexample,muchrecentattentionhasfocusedontheroleofinsolvencyframeworksinrespondingtomacroeconomiccrises(WorldBank2022a;Menezes,

Gropper,andUttamchandani2021),andthepotentialroleforinsolvencyframeworksinhelpingtoalignprivatesectorinvestmentincentiveswithstates’goalsinrelationtoclimatechangemitigation(Menezesetal.,forthcoming).

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2.

CONTEXT:BRIDGINGTHEKNOWLEDGEGAP—RELEVANCETOEMERGINGMARKETSAND

DEVELOPINGECONOMIES(EMDEs)

Insolvencyregimes,whichprovidemechanismsforthecoordinatedtreatmentofadebtor’sexpectedinabilitytodischargeitsfixedobligations,areonlyonecomponentoftheregulatoryandinstitutionalenvironmentforcredit.Otherrelevantcomponentsincludelawsandinstitutionsthatenabledebtorstograntcollateraltolenders(securedtransactionsandcollateralregistries),lawsandinstitutionsthatfacilitateinformationsharing,andthestructureandregulationofthebankingsectorandothercreditproviders.Theinteractionsamongthesecomponentscanbecomplex.

Inrelationtocollateral,forexample,reformsto

expandtheassetsthatdebtorscancrediblyofferascollateraltolenders,whileretainingpossessionofthepledgedasset,canwidenaccesstocredit.InRomania,followingreformsofthiskind,thefirmsmostlikelytobeaffected4increasedtheirborrowingandreducedcashhoarding;theywerealsofoundtohaveincreasedtheirinvestmentinfixedassetsandtheirhiringofworkersandtohaveimprovedproductivity.5InFrance,areformthatexpandedtheassetsavailabletobeofferedascollateralwasfoundtoincreaselonger-termborrowingbyaffectedfirms(particularlybyfirmsthathadnotpreviouslyborrowedlongterm),which

4Thoseoperatinginsectorswithmoreofthekindsofassetsfreeduptobeusedascollateral;seeCampelloandLarrain2016.

5CampelloandLarrain2016.Thereformsnotonlywidenedthetypeofassetsthatcouldbeofferedas(nonpossessory)security,buttheyalsostrengthened

enforcementrightsforsecuredlenders.However,thefindingswerefoundtobegeneralizableacrossasampleofeconomiesinEasternEuropethathadcarriedoutthefirstkindofreform(wideningassetsavailableascollateral).Astoproductivity,theauthorshypothesizethatthisresultmayhavebeendrivenbyfirms

beingfreedupbythereformtochangethecompositionoftheirassetsfrom“liquid,idleassetstowardsmoreilliquid,productiveassets.”

werealsofoundtohaveinvestedmore,hiredmore,andenjoyedhighersales.Thebenefitswerefoundtobemostpronouncedforfirmsmostlikelytobecreditconstrained—younger,smaller,moreruralfirms.6Inrelationtorightsofenforcement,however,areformundertakeninIndiatoenablesecuredlenderstounilaterallyenforceagainstcollateral,evenifthisriskedforcingdebtorsintoprematureliquidation,wasfoundtohaveledtoareductionintheuseofsecureddebtandanincreaseincashhoarding.7Clearly,theinteractionbetweenlawsgoverningthegrantandenforcementofcollateralrightsandinsolvencylawsprovidingforacoordinatedtreatmentofdistressmustbecarefullyconsidered.

Withinthedomainofinsolvencylaw,itisrecognizedthatthewayinwhichaninsolvencyregimefunctionsinpracticewilldependonthefeaturesoftheinstitutions(courtsandtribunals,insolvencypractitionersandtrustees)thatareresponsibleforitsapplication.8Lawswhicharesimilar‘onthebooks’mayfunctionverydifferentlyindifferentlegalenvironments,andcloseattentiontothisaspectoftheinstitutionalcontextiskeytorealizingthepotentialbenefitsofinsolvencyreform.Weexploresomeaspectsofthisbelowin“ChallengesandOpportunities.”

Understandingtheeconomicimpactsofinsolvencyregimes—andtheirlimitations—isessentialwhenshapinganycountry’sinsolvencyreforms.Thisnoteaimstosupportpolicymakersinthismission.TheWorldBank,withinitsmandatetosupportcountriesinstrengtheningtheirlegal,institutional,andregulatoryframeworkstoimproveeconomicoutcomes,isuniquelypositionedtoaccumulateanddisseminateknowledgeandempiricalevidenceinthisarea,enablingpolicymakerstoputforwardevidence-basedreforms.

Mostevidenceinthisnoteisgatheredfromdevelopedeconomieswherelong-termdataoninsolvencyreformsandthevariouscharacteristicsofinsolvencylawsandtheirperformanceismorereadilyavailable.ThelimitedevidencefromEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies(EMDEs)underscoresthebroaderchallengesofinsolvencyreformsandtheirimplementationintheseregions.First,insolvencysystemsinEMDEsareoftenunderdeveloped(orifmodernlawsexist,theyarerelativelyrecent),makingitdifficulttogathercomprehensivedata.Second,unlikedevelopedeconomies,wheremorerobustlegalandeconomicdataonsuchreformscanbecollected,EMDEsoftenlacktheinstitutionalcapacityandconsistentenforcementmechanismstosystematicallytrackinsolvencyoutcomes.

TheseknowledgegapsdonotdiminishtherelevanceoffindingsfromdevelopedeconomiestoEMDEs,asthebroadprinciplesandcorefunctionsofinsolvencyregimesshouldapplyacrossalleconomies.TherootcausesofthedatascarcityabouttheimpactsofinsolvencyframeworksinEMDEsneedtobeaddressed,however.Sharingbestpracticesfromothercountriesandtailoringthemtouniquelocalcontextsaswellasinstitutionalcapacitybuilding(includinginvestinginjudicialandinsolvencypractitionertrainingandtechnologicalinfrastructure)andcomprehensivedatacollectionmechanismsarecrucialstepstowardachievingthisgoal.

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6Aretz,Campello,andMarchica2019.Theauthorsnotethatthisreformfocusedonwhatcouldbeofferedascollateral,ratherthanontheprocessfor

enforcementagainstcollateral,andexplainwhytheyconsideritimprobablethatinsolvencyreformsmadeinthepreviousyearwouldconfoundtheseresults.

7Vig2013.

8AyotteandYun2007.

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3.

BIRD’SEYEVIEW:UNPACKINGTHEBENEFITSOFEFFECTIVEINSOLVENCYFRAMEWORKS

Insolvencyregimesarenotjustreactivemeasuresthatcomeintoplaywhenabusinessisonthebrinkofcollapse.Theyplayadynamicandinfluentialrolethroughouttheentirebusinessandcreditlifecycle—frominfluencinginitialbusinessdecisionsandfinancingstrategiestoshapingrisk-takingbehaviorsand,ultimately,guidingtheresolutionoffinancialchallenges,whetherthroughsuccessfulreorganizationororderlyliquidation.

Thegraphicbelowillustratesinterplaybetweeninsolvencyregimesandtheireffectsonbusinessandcreditcycles,alongwiththeirassociationswithpositiveeconomicoutcomes.

Duringtheincipientstagesoffirmdevelopment,insolvencyregimespromotethecreationof

newfirmsbypromotingaccesstocreditandentrepreneurship.Thelatterisachievedthroughtheestablishmentofconditionsandsafeguardsfordebtdischargeandafreshstartfornaturalpersonentrepreneurs.Duringtheexpansionstages,insolvencyregimesallowfirmstogrowandexpand,notonlythroughgreateraccesstocredit,butalsothroughthepreservationofvaluederivedfromrestructuringdistressedbutviablefirms.Thisisbecauseinsolvencyregimesserveasanimportantsafetynetforbusinessactivity,ensuringthatwhenbusinessesfacefinancialdifficulties,mechanismsareavailabletorescuethem.Finally,duringtheexitstage,insolvencyalsopromotesthedeploymentofassetstrappedinunproductivefirmstomoreproductiveuses,maximizingthevalueofthose

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Insolvencysystemsafectentrepreneurialpursuit

Businessformation/Precreditstage

Insolvency

Insolvency

systemsafect

thecostandthe

availabilityof

credit

systemsafect

Businessgrowth/Creditexpansion

Businessexit/Creditclosure

returnsto

creditorsandthe

exitofunviable

firmsfromthe

market

Financialdistress/Debtrestructuring

Financialdistress

prevention/Credit

monitoringand

insolvencyrisk

Insolvencysystemsafectreturns

tocreditors,survivalofviable

firms(andpreservationofjobs)

andhelpadjustNPLlevels

assessment

Source:authors

Earlywarningsystems

debtenforcement,allorthemajorityofcreditorsparticipateininsolvencyproceedings,andeffectiveinsolvencyregimesaimtoprovideabalanceofbothdebtorprotection10andcreditorrecovery.Effectiveimplementationthroughsoundinstitutionalandregulatoryframeworks11iskeytosecuringtheseadvantages.

assets.Atthisstage,insolvencyalsoensuresanorderlypaymentprocess,avoidingachaoticracebycreditorstocollect.Throughtheimpactacrossthethreestagesoffirms’development,insolvencyalsocontributestotheconceptualprocessof‘creativedestruction’andpromotestheadequateinterplaybetweentheeconomicforcesofcreation,preservation,anddestruction.9

Findingthisbalanceisoneofthemainchallengespolicymakersfacewhendesigninganinsolvencylaw.Thebestapproacheswillbetailoredtomeettheparticularneeds,characteristics,andeconomicandsocialgoalsofagivencountry.Unlikebilateral

9WorldBank2024.Theterm“creativedestruction”wascoinedbyAustrianeconomistJosephSchumpeterin1942andreferstothe“processofindustrialmutationthatincessantlyrevolutionizestheeconomicstructurefromwithin,incessantlydestroyingtheoldone,incessantlycreatinganewone.”See

Schumpeter(1942).

10Thenatureofthe“protection”requiredwillofcoursevarydependingonwhetherthedebtorisanindividualpersonoralegalentity,suchasalimitedliabilitycorporation.

11SeeWorldBank2021,PartD.

PromotingEntrepreneurship

Entrepreneurshipcreatesjobs,increasesproductivity,andencouragesinnovation.12Entrepreneurstendtoproducemultipliereffectsthatcanincreaselong-termemploymentgrowthratesthroughoutanentireregion.13Atthesametime,entrepreneurstakeconsiderablerisks,includingriskstotheirownandtheirfamilies’financialwell-being.Whennaturalpersonscarryoutabusinessactivity(asindividualentrepreneursorownersoflimitedliabilitymicroandsmallenterprises),theirbusinessdebtsandpersonaldebtsareoftenintermingled.Ifthedebtorbecomesinsolventandthesedebtscannotbeaddressedthroughastreamlinedprocedureandsomeformofdebtdischarge,itcanleadtoachillingeffectonentrepreneurialactivity.Targetedpersonalandcorporateinsolvencylawreformscanhelpmitigatethisriskandtherebyencouragemoreentrepreneurship.

Personalinsolvencylaws

Entrepreneursoftenhavetocommitpersonalassetstostartabusinessandtopersonallyguaranteeloanstothenewventure.Acertainlevelofprotectionandmeasurestoreducestigmainpersonalinsolvencylaws(suchasfavorableconditionsandadequatesafeguardsfordebtdischargeandafreshstartforhonestnaturalpersonentrepreneurs)appeartoencouragetherisk-takingnecessaryforentrepreneurshipandinnovation.Severalstudieshaveshownastrongconnectionbetweenacountry’spersonalinsolvencylawsandentrepreneurship.

Forexample,a2004studyoftheUnitedStatesandtenEuropeancountriesfoundapositivecorrelation

between“debtor-friendly”personalbankruptcyregimesandlevelsofventurecapitalfunding.Theauthorspeculatedthatgreaterprotectionsforpersonalassets,withmore“forgiving”bankruptcyregimes,madeentrepreneursmorewillingtocommittheirownresourcesintheearlystagesofaproject,whichwouldthenincreasedemandforventurecapital.14AlawreforminJapantofacilitatecompanyreorganization,includingbyprovidinggreaterprotectiontomanagers(whosepersonalassetshadpreviouslybeenatriskundertheoldlaw),wasfoundtobeassociatedwithanincreaseincompanyfounding,particularlyby“elite”entrepreneurs,15theauthorshypothesizingthatboththereducedpersonalfinancialcostsofinsolvencyfortheentrepreneur,aswellasincreasedlegitimacy(reducedstigma)oftheuseofthereorganizationprocess,wouldhavechangedthecalculusforentrepreneurschoosingbetweenfoundinganewventureandseekingemploymentinsomeotherfirm.16

Studiesinvestigatingtherelationshipbetweenpersonalbankruptcylawsandentrepreneurshipsuggestthat“forgiving”bankruptcylawshadasignificantpositiveeffectonself-employmentrates.Forexample,astudycomparingself-employmentin15countriesinEuropeandNorthAmericabetween1990and2005foundthatmoreforgivingpersonalbankruptcylaws,measuredparticularlyinreferencetothetimeabankruptindividualhastowaittobedischargedfrompre-bankruptcydebts,combinedwithreadyaccesstolimitedliabilityprotections,enhanceentrepreneurialactivity(measuredbyself-employmentrates).17

Legislativeexclusionsorexemptionsfromthebankruptcyestateofassetsthatarenotdirectlylinkedtothebusinessofanaturalperson

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12VanPraagandVersloot2008;CarreeandThurik2010.

13VanPraagandVersloot2008.

14Armour2004.

15Asproxiedbyeducationlevels;Eberhart,Eesley,andEisenhardt2017.Theauthorsfocusedonsuchindividualsbecausetheliteraturesuggestedtheywere“especiallylikelytofoundhigh-growthventures”anddisproportionatelyaffectedbylegitimacyissues.

16Eberhart,Eesley,andEisenhardt2017.Theauthorsexplainingwhyanearlierreformwasnotl