瑞银-2026年顶级投资主题与交易思路：图文故事-Top Investment Themes and Trade Ideas for 2026：The story in pictures-20260201

UBS

GlobalResearch

February2026

TopInvestmentThemesandTradeIdeasfor2026

Thestoryinpictures

BhanuBaweja

ChiefStrategist

Tel:+442075686833

Bhanu.baweja@

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAG,LondonBranch

ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonSLIDE73

UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

【价值目录】网整理：

Fivethemesfor2026

1.EarlyheadwindsbutAIproductivitywins:USleads~10%equityreturns

2.Feddoesn’tcontrolthelongend:USleadsmeagre3-5%fixedincomereturns

3.Notriggerforrotationtotherestoftheworld:Aflatdollar

4.Fomo&uncertaintycohabit:Goldoutperformsindustrialsmetals&energy

5.DeflationarywindsfromChina:LongChinaagainsttherestofEM

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

UBS2

UBS3

YWbVuZmYrUbYaZfY6M9R6MmOnNnPsMlOoOnPeRrQsQ9PnMoOwMoOnPMYsOoP

Globalgrowthreboundfromthetariff-inducedconfidenceshock

GlobalNowcast:compositegrowthestimatefromhardandsoftdatacombined

QoQ,saar(%)Globalgrowthnowcast

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

Liberationday

totalfithardfitsoftfit

Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25Aug-25Nov-25

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

UBS4

ContributionstoUSgrowth

ContributionstoUSgrowth

RealGDP(%y/y)

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

AIInvestmentUpperincomeconsumptionEverythingElseRealGDP

0.5

1.1

0.8

Jun22Dec22Jun23Dec23Jun24Dec24Jun25

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS5

Averageannualisedreturnduringdifferenteconomicphases

Growthabovetrendbutfallingandinflationbelowtrendbutrising(currentphase)

Growthabovetrendbutfallingandinflationabovetrendandrising(expectedphase)

OilGold

CrudeCopper

EUDMxUS

EM

US

Semis

JPYUSDAUDUSD

AverageReturn(Annualized)

TechHardware

Retail

EURUSDTIPS5y

Media

TIPS10y

Software

TIPS30yUSTreasury5y

USTreasury10y

USTreasury30y

USIG

USHY

USSmallCap

CapGoods

Autos

Utilities

ConsSvs

Durab&Appar

TransportDivFins

USValue

USLargeCap

Materials

Telecoms

Energy

USGrowth

RealEstate

Banks

CommercSvsInsurance

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

(10%)

(20%)

(30%)

(40%)

(50%)

(60%)

(70%)

(80%)

HlrhmEuBipitechFoodFoSdt,avls&ReTtoabilc

House&PersProd

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS6

WillAIproductivitydiffusetotherealworld?

Realsalesperemployeeacrossmarkets

US$

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

S&P500S&P600(small)Stoxx600MSCIEM

111213141516171819202122232425

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS7

Ninecompanieshaveadded$6trntotheUSmarketcapoverthelast12months

Ninecompaniesdrove72%oftheincreaseinmarketcapitalizationthelast12m

%GDPRussell3000marketcap

250

230

210

190

170

150

130

110

90

70

50

Theother2991companiesNotorious9

929495969799000102040506070910111214151617192021222425

Source:FactSet,Haver,Bloomberg,UBS[Note:the'notorious9'consistsoftheMagnificent7+OracleandBroadcom]

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS8

Netincomemargin(1990s)

%

28

23

18

13

8

S&P500top10companiesfundamentals(1990svsToday)

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2-0.4

-0.6

.mlnll,

Jun-97Mar-98Dec-98Sep-99Jun-00

NetDebttoEBITDA(1990s)

Jun-97Mar-98Dec-98Sep-99Jun-00

%Netincomemargin(Today)

28

23

18

13

8

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2-0.4

-0.6

Sep-21Jun-22Mar-23Dec-23Sep-24Jun-25

NetDebttoEBITDA(Today)

Sep-21Jun-22Mar-23Dec-23Sep-24Jun-25

Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,UBS.Note:usedmedianofthetop10constituentsbyweightinS&P500asof31Aug1998.

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS9

Marketpatternstodayseemawayfromtopofthemarket

Similarityanalysisshowstoday’smarketpatternsaremostsimilarto1997-1999

October

October

S&PPea

k

(23/03/20

00)

TopMatc

h

97-Feb

99)

aritytoc

urrentr

egime(

rnsimil

2023-

2025)

Patte

(Mar

Source:Bloomberg,Reuters.Note:Wecomputerolling24-monthcorrelationmatricesacrossS&Pindustries,equitystyles,rates,credit,FXandcommoditiesbackto

1995,andscoreeachwindowbyhowcloselyitscorrelationpatternsalignwiththoseobservedtoday(viacosinesimilarity).Thisidentifieswhenthemarketinternal

“wiring”lastlookedlikeitdoesnow.TheanalysisidentifiesMarch‘97-’99astheclosesthistoricalanalogue,excludingpost-2022windowsthatasexpectedrankhigherduetoregimestability.

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS10

Tarifftransmissiontoconsumerpricescouldrunthroughthemiddleof‘26

Webelievethetariffcostwillrotatefrommarginstoprices

1.4

1.1

0.8

0.5

0.2

-0.1

Increaseincustomsrevenuerelativetoconsumption

(Percentagepoints)

USdomesticfirmshare

Foreignexportershare

Additionaltariffcosts

USconsumershare

Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25

Source:UBS.BasedonanassumptionofimportpricesinSeptember2025beingthesameasinAugust2025.

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS11

MarketexpectstrendearningsforMag7butabigpick-upfortheremaining493

Mag7andremaining493expectedearnings

Magnificent7companies'quarterlyEPS

ExpectedCAGR:

18.0%

USD

21

18

15

12

9

6

3

0

ActualsConsensusexp.

CAGRsince2012:

19.4%

excludingmagnificent7companies'quarterlyEPS

S&P500

ActualsConsensusexp.

Expected

CAGR:10.2%

USD

CAGRsince2012:7.6%

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source:FactSet,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS12

HighvslowqualitystockbasketperformanceandUSHYspreads

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

%

USHYIndex

UBSL/SQualityQuantFactor(rhs)

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS13

Europeanearnings:Wefinallyseegrowthin2026E

Stoxx600annualEPSgrowth(%)

Source:RefinitivEikon,Datastream,UBS

UBS14

US10yyieldstodropto3.5%,risebackto4%

USsupplyofduration(10yequivalents)

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

-1000

-1500

-2000

$,bn

UStotalissuance

Fedmarketpurchases

Netissuance(incl.Fedpurch.)

Netissuance(incl.Fedpurchases)%ofGDP(rhs)

11%

9%

7%

5%

3%

1%

-2%

101112131415161718192021222324252627

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

UBS15

Fedratecutsunlikelytoleadcostofequitydecline

USFedfundseffectiverateandS&Pdiscountratesproxy

%——S&P500discountrateproxy——USFederalFundsEffectiveRate

16

14

Thenumbersinboxesdenotethedeclinefromhightolowpointsinbothseriesinratecuttingcycles.

12

10

-730bp

-560bp-85bp

8

-415bp

6

4

-225bp

-550bp

2

-500bp

-225bp

0

1998200120042007201020132016201920222025

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS16

Risk-rewardforcreditinferiortoequities

UBSEvidenceLabBankruptcymonitor

AllPrivatePublic

25

20

15

10

5

0

202122232425

Source:UBSEvidenceLab(>AccessDataset)

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS17

Withnotriggersforrotation;the$standsitsground

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Standardizedresiduals

2.0

2.5

0.4

0.7

1.1

1.4

1.6

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

-1.3

-1.5

-2.6

CHFAUDGBPNDZCADCNYEURSEKINRMXNBRLNOKKRWJPY

Source:Bloomberg,UBS.Note:basedonaverageresidualofregressionbetweencurrenciesagainstUSDandtheirrespectivemarket's2y,5y,10yinterest-ratedifferentialswiththeUS.

UBS18

Whatdrivesthedollar?

8.080Worldex-USrealGDPy/ychange,4QmaDollarrealTWI(rhs,inverted)

7.085

6.090

5.095

4.0100

3.0105

2.0110

1.0115

0.0120

-1.0125

1982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS19

Chinaexportvolumeandpricesrelativetoworld

1.15

1.10

1.05

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80

(SA,IndexedtoDec-19=100,3mma)(SA,IndexedtoDec-19=100,3mma)

Chinaexportprice/WorldexChinaexportpriceChina/worldexChinaexportvolumes(rhs)

10111213141516171819202122232425

1.45

1.25

1.05

0.85

0.65

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

UBS20

Goldmodelsarebroken,butcautionwarrantedwhenresidualssig

ttllist

isic://awwnw.ale

accelerateonnonews

Goldmodel

Gold,model'scontributiontoin-samplefit(3mma)

10

Otherfactors

UStermpremiaVIX

Industrialmetalsindex

5yTIPS

USD

Constantterm

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Jan-22

May-22

Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23

Jan-24May-24

Sep-24Jan-25

May-25

Sep-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS21

AnewaccelerationphasesinceAug‘25becamemorestretchedinDec

GoldpriceandUS5yrealratesy/ychange

95

85

75

y/y%changeingoldprice

65

55

45

35

25

15

5

-5

-15

-25

-35

2011-20212022-2025

LatestSince19Aug2025

2022-2025

2011-2021

-200-1000100200300400y/ybpchangeinUSrealrates

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS22

Highergoldvolatilityisassociatedweaklywithlowerfuturereturns

GoldandSilver3mimpliedvol1yrollingcorrelbetween3mimpliedvolinGoldand3mfwd

returns

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

90

82

80

70

60

50

40

30

24

20

10

0

20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026

1yrollingcorrelbetween3mimpliedvolinGoldand3mfwdreturns

2007200920112013201520172019202120232025

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

UBS23

Asurgeinsilverrelativetogoldhasalsotypicallypointedtoweakerreturns

GoldSilverRatioGoldandSilveraveragepriceperformancebeforeandafter

Gold-Silverratioisin~65range

140

GoldSilverratio

120

100

80

Jul-201666

Feb-2021

64

60

Feb-2026

60

Usedlast10ydataforthe

40

Apr-200644

May-198750

Feb-199839

Apr-2011

32

20

Jun-198332

Jan-198014

0

198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024

105

100

95

90

85

80

GoldSilver

-44-40-36-32-28-24-20-16-12-8-4048121620242832364044

Source:Bloomberg,UBS.

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS24

Thiswasn’tagoldmove.Itjustpiggy-backedonwhitemetals

Performanceofpreciousmetals

Rebasedon1stJan,2025

400

GoldSilverPlatinum——Palladium

350

300

271

250

223

200

179

177

150

100

Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS25

Whitemetalmarketsareindeficit

1MForwardSwapRate

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

GoldSilver

-25

PlatinumPalladium

-30

-35

Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS26

AndthewhitemetalrallyseemslargelymadeinChina

Palladiumtradingvolume,kozPlatinumtradingvolume,koz

GuanghzhouFuturesExchange(GFEX)

6,000NewYorkMercentileExchange(NYMEX)

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

27-Nov-2511-Dec-2525-Dec-2508-Jan-26

——GuanghzhouFuturesExchange(GFEX)

——NewYorkMercentileExchange(NYMEX)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

27-Nov-2511-Dec-2525-Dec-2508-Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,UBS.

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS27

SomesignsoffrothinSilvertradinginChina

Silvertradingvolumeandopeninterest

2,500

SHFEsilveropeninterest,mozSHFEsilvertradingvolume,moz

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS28

Near-termpullbacksnotwithstanding,long-termdemandfromChinaisstrong

ChinaphysicalinvestmentdemandvsHomeprices

4

3

2

1

0

Physicalinvestmentdemand,moz(1yearmovingavg)PC(1)ofChinaTier1–3citiesrealestateprices(rhs)

111213141516171819202122232425

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS29

Asisdemandfromcentralbanksandsupranationals…

Centralbankgoldreserveas%oftotalreserveOfficialsectorgoldpurchases

90%

World

80%

70%

EmergingandDevelopingeconomiesAdvancedeconomies

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

34%

22%

12%

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

RussiainvadesUkraine

UBSe

Officialsectorgoldpurchases,tonnes

10111213141516171819202122232425

Source:WorldGoldCouncil,UBS.

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS30

…andthedemandfordiversificationinprivateportfolios

Bond-equitycorrelationpercoreCPIinflationdecile

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

%

Averagebondequitycorrelationperinflationdecile◆AveragecoreCPIinflationpercoreCPIinflationdecile(rhs)

0.28

0.30

0.30

Correlationincreasessharplyand

stayspositiveafterCPImovesin

6thdecile

0.24

0.22

8.9%

-0.01

◆

5.6%

◆

4.4%

2.8%

3.6%

-0.20

1.5%

◆

2.3%

2.1%

1.8%

-0.29

1.1%

-0.28

-0.32

0-10%ile10-2020-3030-4040-5050-6060-7070-8080-9090-100

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

UScoreCPIdeciles

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS31

PrivateinvestorsarediversifyingthroughgoldETFsinasteadyfashion

PreciousmetalETFflows

170

150

130

110

90

2025ETFflows

GoldSilverPlatinumPalladium

Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,UBSNote:Index100=Jan2025

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS32

Asthe$’slefttailbehaviorhaschangedfortheworse,gold’shasforthebetter

PrevsPost(2022+)Risk-offReaction

0.2

Post-2022:Avgrisk-offreaction(zunits)

0.1

0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

GoldEUR

EUROStoxx

USDTradeWgt

JPY

NikkeiEUHY

USTs

CRBIndex

S&PNasdaq

Russell2000

Bunds

MSCIEM

USHY

EMSovereign

-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2

Pre-2022:Avgriskoffreaction(zunits)

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

【价值目录】网整理：

UBS33

Wethinktheconditionsarenotinplaceforabigfallingold

Macrovariablesduringpreviousepisodesofgoldfall

Nov1974to

Aug1976

Sept1980

toJun1982

Jan1983to

Feb1985

Nov1987to

Aug1999

Aug2011to

Dec2015

Median

%

Gold

-20.6%

-31.1%

-19.9%

-5.0%

-9.1%

-19.9%

%DXY

2.7%

19.5%

16.4%

0.6%

6.6%

6.6%

%EURUSD

-

-19.7%

-16.6%

-1.2%

-6.0%

-11.3%

%S&P500

19.8%

-5.8%

13.8%

14.9%

11.0%

13.8%

%MSCIWorld

16.8%

-8.6%

12.4%

9.8%

5.8%

9.8%

bpsUS10ynominal

-7.6

157.6

75.3

-25.5

-10.7

-7.6

bpsUS10ytermpremium

54.4

49.2

19.3

-13.7

-27.8

-19.2

bpsUS2ynominalyield

-73.7

171.9

51.1

-17.1

16.6

16.6

bpsUSIGspreadsproxy

-46.3

176.8

-37.8

-26.0

2.1

-26.0

ppChangeinUSrealGDP,%y/y

3.0

0.3

4.8

0.0

0.1

0.3

ppChangeinUSCPI,%y/y

-3.5

-3.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.7