INTR9018-lecture3-Rise-of-East-Asia翻译报告课件

RiseofEastAsiaKeyQuestions:Howaretheeconomicdevelopmentexperiencesofthe‘Asiantigers’differentfromthatofJapan?IsthereagrowingsenseofEastAsiaasasinglecohesiveregion?WhyhavesomeSouthEastAsiancountrieslikethePhilippinesnotwitnessedrapiddevelopment,whileSingaporehasbeensuchasuccessstory?WhatdoesthefutureholdforSouthEastAsia?RiseofEastAsiaRequiredReadingsTerada,T.“Constructingan‘EastAsian’conceptandgrowingregionalidentity:fromtheEAECtoASEAN+3,”PacificReviewVol.16,No.2,2003.Doner,R.etal.“Systemicvulnerabilityandtheoriginsofdevelopmentalstates:NortheastandSoutheastAsiaincomparativeperspective,”InternationalOrganizationVol.59,Spring2005.RiseofEastAsiaWong,J.“TheadaptivedevelopmentalstateinEastAsia,”JournalofEastAsianStudiesVol.4,2004.T.Hamashita.China,EastAsiaandtheGlobalEconomy:RegionalandHistoricalPerspectives(Routledge,LondonandNewYork,2008),Chapter4,39-57.JosephEStiglitzandShahidYusuf(2001),RethinkingtheEastAsianMiracle:Aco-publicationoftheWorldBankandOxfordUniversityPress.RiseofEastAsiaKishoreMahbubani,WhySingaporeistheWorld’sMostSuccessfulSociety./entry/singapore-world-successful-society_b_7934988?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS5hdS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACe-LR-Pk_SnKc84f4Cicm-k48BQXSdLbo7kriCsA7adwiNuCx0NBP_QKJpBHuYMeQQTjPMDZ5oGYj3VPN8dlFr6WcvZuvJLbZmhSd2p4QRnW3lcl-aInaagXBoxcxiCvyRGbrJKMGXmgLiRqHtu0erMmLjgvH2EiLHlxvtH8627SilverintheeconomyHamashitaReadingLet’sbeginwithhistory.Duringthe16th~19thcenturies,silverdominatedAsianandworldtrade.Indeed,Asia’stradewithEuropeshapedworldfinancialflows,andwithitsilverasthemainstandard.SilverwascirculatingasacurrencyfirstwithinAsiaandthenbeyondregionaleconomies.Pursuingtheflowofsilverledtotherecognitionofaworldsilvermarketsupportedbycirculationnetworks.SilverintheeconomyConditionsfortheflowofsilver:Movementsofsilverthroughexchangeactivitiesmadeitmorethanacurrencyjustforbusinessdeals.Itwasameansforlinkinguponeregionaleconomy’smarketwithanother.Forexample,thedesireofEuropeanstolinkupdirectlywiththeadvancedeconomicpowersofChina,IndiaandtheMiddleEast.SilverintheeconomyLetusnowlookatWHYsilverwasreplacedbygoldinAsiaandtheworldingeneral.Becauseofitsvalueandimportancetoworldtrade,silverwasactivelyminedandthisledtoover-supply.Andwithitafallintheprice–andvalueofthispreciousmetal.FallofSilverPriceWhy?Atthesametime,severalcountriesinEuropewenttothegoldstandard,andthepriceofgoldincreasedbecauseofincreaseddemand.ImpactThegoldstandardincreasedexportsfromAsia.ThegoldstandardwasimplementedinEurope,AmericaandvariousAsiannationsfrom1870sonwards.EastAsiaLet’sturntotheTeradareadingandtheconceptofwhatconstitutes‘EastAsia’EastAsia:Theconceptwasraisedin1990swiththefloatingoftheideaofthe‘EastAsianEconomicCaucus’(EAEC).ThetermwastoincludeChina,Japan,SouthKoreaandthesixmembersoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN).ActualcooperationdidnotstartuntilthefirstinformalASEAN+3meetingin1997.EastAsiaConstructivistApproachesRegionsRegionsdonotexistnaturallybutaresubjectivelyconstructedbyhumanbeings.Emergenceofasenseofidentityamongcountriesinacertainregionisimportantinpromotingregionalcooperationandregionalintegration.EastAsiaConstructivistApproachesRegionalIntegrationRegionalIntegration:dependsontheemergenceofasenseofidentityamongcountriesinacertainregionTheexperienceofcommonproblemswithincertainregionalcountrieshelpstodistinguish‘us’from‘them’EastAsiaEAEC:apioneeringfailureConcept:introducedbyDrMahathir(Malaysia’sPM)thatintegratingNortheastandSoutheastAsiaintoonebodywasbeneficialforregionalintegration(early1990).Untilthen,EastAsiatendedtomeanNortheastAsia,consistingofJapan,ChinaSouthKorea,HongKongChinaandChineseTaiwan.Mahathir’sEAECproposalwaspremisedontheconceptofawiderandmoreunifiedregion,consolidatingthesedifferentgeographicalconceptsinto‘EastAsia’.EastAsiaEAEC:apioneeringfailureWhy?Threereasons.

ThecentralideaandpurposeofEAECwasnotclear. DrMahathirnotappreciateothercountries'differentopinions. DifficultformanyregionalcountriestoaccepttheconceptinitiallybecauseAPECwasalreadyausefulregionalinstitutionandthosecountriesfounditunnecessarytorushintothecreationofanotherregionalbody.EastAsiaChangeinThinkingoftheEastAsianConceptInformal6+3lunch(1994):ForeignministersmetfromASEANmetwiththeforeignministersofChina,JapanandKorea FirstministerialencountercombiningNortheastandSoutheastAsia

GeneratedagrowingconsciousnessofasharedEastAsianidentity,asthebasisfortheASEAN+3frameworkEastAsiaForcesthatledtothechangeinthinkingInter-linkagesduringthefinancialcrisisCommonpolicypositionsglobally,suchasontradeandprotectionismandinvestmentRegionalproductionnetworksAdesirebymanycountriestoplacelimitsonJapaneseleadershipEastAsiaMovetowards‘EastAsian’regionalismASEAN+3cooperationbeganin1997andwasinstitutionalisedin1999PlannedatstrengtheninganddeepeningEastAsiacooperationinvariousareassuchasindustrypolicy,investment,trade,security.Aimedtolaunchtwocooperationplans:theestablishmentofanEastAsianFTAandanEastAsiansummit.EastAsiaWhywastheASEAN+3asuccess?Threereasons:GradualacceptanceoftheEastAsianconceptthroughthepromotionofasharedunderstand-ingofregionalsettingsandregionalproblems.PromotedbytheAsianfinancialcrisis(commonexperience)andExpandingregionalisminEuropeandtheAmericas.DevelopmentalStatesLet’snowturntotheDoner&WongReading–developmentalstatesDevelopmentalstatesrelatetobureaucraticagenciesandpublic-privatesectorlinkages.Theywerealsotheproductofacertaintimeandplace–1990s,Asia.Theypromotelinkageswithprivateactors,particularlybusinessandlabour.DevelopmentalStatesDevelopmentalstatesrefertothephenomenonofstate-ledmacroeconomicplanningin

EastAsiainthelatetwentiethcentury.Inthismodelof

capitalism

(sometimesreferredtoas

statedevelopmentcapitalism),thestatehasmorecontrolovertheeconomy.Adevelopmentalstateischaracterisedbyhavingstrongstateintervention,aswellasextensiveregulationandplanning.DevelopmentalStatesTheEastAsianModel(Wongreading)ThedevelopmentalstatewasdefinedbyitsabilitytobalancestrategiclinkageswithdifferentsocialforcesAtthepolicylevel,thepost-wardevelopmentalstatewascharacterisedbyitsuseofmarket-interveningpolicies.Itwentagainsteconomicorthodoxythatemphasisedtheroleofmarkets.DevelopmentalStatesPressuresfordevelopmentstates(Wongreading)ExogenousEconomicPressures(outside):Economicglobalizationandglobalmoneyflows-impactedonJapan,SouthKorea,ChineseTaiwan.EndogenousPressures(within):(1)Economicmodernisationintheregion(2)Awaveofdemocraticdeepeningbeginninginthe1980s(3)Theeaseofcooperativerelationshipsbetweenthestateandbusinesssincethelate1990sInstitutionalFeaturesDevelopmentalStates-DonerReadingFeaturesthatdistinguish“clientelist”arrangements(exchangeofgoods/servicesforgovernmentsupport)ingovernment-businessrelations:OperateonthebasisofindustrydemandsforprotectionPrivatesectorparticipantstendtobeofficial,sectoralorpeakassociationsandtheiroperationstendtobetransparentProceedaccordingtoexplicitandconsistentrulesandnormseventhoughsucharrangementscouldbemis-interpreted.InstitutionalVariation

NIEs(Korea,ChineseTaiwan,Singapore)Aforementionedcharacteristics,combinedmeritocraticpromotionandcompetitiveselectionPowerfulleaddevelopmentagenciesinvolvedlikeEDBinSingaporeandBOFTinChineseTaipeiExhibitshighlevelsoflinkageswithorganizedprivateactorslikelabourunionsIntermediatestatesinIndonesia,Malaysia,PhilippinesandThailand.Public-privatelinkagesexhibitsignificantdegreesofclientelismandprivate-sectorfactionalismTheArgumentWhatarethefactorsforinstitutionalcapacitythatdrovetheNIEs’economicsuccess?Externalthreat:egKoreaandChineseTaipeiforcethemtomeetthefinancialchallengesofwarResourceconstraintsSystemicvulnerability–relianceonvolatileworldmarkets.Initialconditions:JapanesecolonialisminKorea,ChineseTaipeicreatednew“statestructures”and“patternsofstate-classrelations”.TheArgumentAlsoincludes:EthnichomogeneityandConfuciantraditionBroadConclusion:Undertheseconditions,institutionswereabletoformulatebroaddevelopmentalobjectivesthroughdevelopingsensibleeconomicpolicies.SouthKoreaandChineseTaiwanLetslookateffortsinKoreaandChineseTaipeiLeaderscreatedinstitutionstomeetthepoliticalandeconomicchallengesofsystemicvulnerabilityinthreestages

Earlytomid-1950s:beganwithruraldevelopmentandimportsubstitutionLate1950sandearly1960s:shiftedtolabour-intensiveexportpromotionEarly1970s:movedtoindustrialdeepeningandupgradingSouthKoreaandChineseTaiwanKeypointsItconfirmedtheplausibilitythatdevelopmentalinstitutionsarosefromchallengesofdifficultbudgetconstraintsinahighlyconstrainedandvolatilegeopoliticalenvironment.Meaningdemocracygreatlyassistedeconomicdevelopmentthroughbudgetmeasuresaimedatdifferentsectionsofsociety.SingaporeEffortsGovernmentcreatedthehousingDevelopmentBoard(HDB)tosubsidizeland,buildingpricesandhomefinancingEducationwasprioritizedandsubsidized,withastrongfocusontechnicaltrainingThePeople’sActionParty(PAP)restoredperksandintroducedanaggressivepayscaleforcivilserviceThestatemadefirmsincreasetheircontributionstotheCentralProvidentFundtobenefitworkers.SingaporeMainpointsInstitutionaldevelopmentwasmainlydrivenbythePAP’spoliticalneedtopromotegrowthinbothwagesandproductivityInSoutheastAsia,SingaporewastheonlycountrythathadsystemicvulnerabilitylikeSouthKoreaandChineseTaiwan.Becauseofitsextremerelianceonvolatileworldmarkets.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessLet’snowlookatsomeoftheunderlyingreasonsforSingapore’suniquesuccessandseeiftherearelessonswecanlearn.AccordingtoKishoreMabunhani,formerSingaporeanAmbassadortotheUN,whenSingaporewasexpelledfromMalaysiain1965andthrustintoanunwantedindependence,itwasatypicalThirdWorldcountry.ItsincomeperheadwasUS$2915in1965.Itwasnotdesperatelypoor,butithadmalnutrition.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessTable1:ComparisonofrealGDPpercapita

Table1:ComparisonofrealGDPpercapita

ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessAswecanseefromthetableshowingpercapitaGDPinseveralcountries,withindecades,Singaporehasspectacularlytransformeditselffromasocietydestinedtofailtoaregionalsuperpower,proudlywitnessingitsGDPpercapitasoaringfrom$2915in1965to$50,000today.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessWhiletherearemanyreasonsforSingapore’ssuccess,threestandout–geography,education,andgovernment.ThefirstandforemostfactorcontributingtoSingapore’seconomicprosperityisindisputablyitslocation.

Singaporeisbestowedwithanaturalharborandtradingport,whereupto40%oftheworld’smaritimetradepasses;Singaporehasheldasignificantpositionfortradeactivityeversincethe14thcentury.

ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessCombinedwithopenforeigntradeandinvestmentpolicies,SingaporeflourisheddramaticallyunderLeeKuanYew—Singapore’sfoundingfatherandvisionaryleader—asaneconomicpowerhouseandcontinuestodosotoday,withitsportbeingoneofthebusiestandmostdynamicintheworld.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessSecond,educationplayedanextremelyvitalroleinpushingSingaporefromaThirdWorldcountrytowhatitistoday—amemberoftheFirstWorld.Fromitsfirstdays,Singapore’seducationsystemcarriedagreatmission—“todevelopSingapore’sonlyavailablenaturalresource,itspeople”—andsoitwasestablishedonthebasisofsolidfundamentalsinheritedfromthecountry’sBritishcolonialpast—thosethatprovedtobetremendouslysuccessful.afterwards.

ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessApartfromofferinggenerousscholarshipsforpupilsandhighstartingsalariesforteacherstoattractandretainthebestindividuals,thenationbasesitseducationsystemontheultimateprincipleofmeritocracy,asgovernmentscholarshiprecipientsareobligedtodocommunityserviceforatleasttwoyearsforeveryyeargrantedforstudying.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessThis,undoubtedly,helpsfostereconomicandsocietalgrowthinabalancedmanner.Furthermore,theeducationsystemoftheSingaporeansisoneofunremittingprogressiveness,havingadoptedbilingualismtoconnectthecountryglobally,geareditsfocustowardsdevelopingSTEMsubjects,andprovidedendlesspossibilitiesforexcellenceinhumanities,artsandsportstoencouragecreativityandentrepreneurship.

ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessHence,it’snosurprisethattoday,Singaporefrequentlyranksamongthetopperformersineducationalachievement(asevaluatedbytheOECD’sProgramforInternationalStudentAssessment)andproudlyboaststwopremieruniversitiesamongthetop75(accordingtothe2018TimesHigherEducationWorldUniversityRankings),producinggenerationsoftheunbelievablyexcellent.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessFinally,afocusonthegovernment’stransparencyandorderlinessisundeniablywhathassetthescenefortoday’ssocialstabilityandricheconomyofSingapore.Tobeparticular,unlikethatofanyothercountriesintheworld,PrimeMinisterLeeKuanYew’sgovernmentwasinauguratedfromthestarttobecomeasmall,yetefficient,honestandcorruption-free.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessThispragmaticstyleofruling,inturn,helpsestablishaclosebondbetweenthegovernmentanditscitizens.Inotherwords,thefactthattheadministratorsagreetokeeptheirpoliticshonestearntheirpeople’sabsolutetrust,makingthemabletopushthroughtoughpolicies—thosethataredesignatedforsolelySingapore’sbenefits.AlthoughmanymayrefutethatLee’sstyleofgovernanceistooundemocratic,itcannotbedeniedthatitwaswhatbroughttheislandnationunprecedentedwealthandsocialstabilityinjustafewdecades.ReasonsforSingapore’sSuccessUnderLee’sgovernance,Singaporeunderwentarevolutionisingstageinitshistory,inwhichittookfulladvantageofitsstrategiclocation,builtameritocraticeducationsystem,and