2025人工智能AI的未来研究报告对人类的影响深度剖析（英文）-

MINTEL

THEFUTUREWITHAI

Debatetheimplicationsforhumanity.

Reflectontheethical,societal,andexistentialimplicationsofAI’sfuture,includingwhatitmeansforourrelationships,healthandtheenvironment.

Nextstartshere

TheAlignmentProblem:Extinctionbypaperclips

OxfordUniversityProfessorNickBostrompositedtheviewthatAItaskedwithmakingpaperclips“willrealisequicklythatitwouldbemuchbetteriftherewerenohumansbecausehumansmightdecidetoswitchitoff”.

Source:WIRED

2

AlignmentProblem–theneedtobesurethatmachinesmoreintelligentthanhumanswantthesamethingsashumans.Failuretoaddressthisrisksintroducinganewspeciestotheplanetthatcouldoutsmartusandoutcompeteus.

ReasonstobeAfrAId

ProtestgroupPauseAIisconcernedabouttheprospectofAIchallenginghumanityonseveralfronts:

•Fakenews,impersonificationandthreatstodemocracy

•Biasesanddiscriminationinheritedfromsociety

•Joblosses

•Disconnectionbetweenpeople,aschatbotssubstituterelationships

•Poweraccumulationamongstahandfulofpublicandprivateentities

•Authoritariangovernments

•Autonomous,cyberandbiologicalweapons

3

Source:pauseAI

AI’sthreatstopoliticalreality

March16th,2022:AdeepfakeofUkrainianPresidentVolodymyrZelenskycallingonhissoldierstolaydowntheirweaponswasreportedlyuploadedtoahackedUkrainiannewswebsite.

Source:TheGuardian;pauseAI

Ofalldeepfakecontentis

sexualmaterial.

96%

4

5

AI’sthreatstopoliticalreality

“Therehavebeen

documentedattemptsto

targetdisinformationtoblackcommunitiesagain,especiallyyoungerblackvoters”

-CliffAlbright

Co-FounderBlackLivesMatter

2024:AI-generatedimagesshowDonaldTrumpwithblackvoters.

Source:BBCPanorama

AI’sthreatstorealityarenothingnew

Throughouthistorytechnologyhasallowedustoplaywithimageandreality.

1924:aphotoofStalinshowinghispockmarkedskinfrom

smallpoxretouchedforpublicationin1939whenhewasleader.

1934:Some750,000peoplediedduringStalin’sGreatPurge,

includingsecretpoliceofficialNikolaYezhov,whowasexecutedandremovedfromhistoricphotos.

Source:;

6

AI’ssocialbias

US:AIusedpatients’healthcarespendinghistoryasaproxyfortheirhealth

needstodetermineiftheyneededaccesstospeciallytrainednursingstaff,closermonitoringetc.ThisdidnotworkbecauselessmoneywasspentonBlackpatientswhohadthesamelevelofneed.ThealgorithmfalselyconcludedthatBlack

patientswerehealthierthantheywere.

26.3%

Morechronicillnessesamongst

blackthanwhitepatients

classifiedtogetheras“very

highrisk”.

1/2

Reductioninnumberofblack

patientsidentifiedforextra

careduetoalgorithmusedby

UShealthcare.

Source:Science;SCIAM

7

AIjoblosses:

lessonsfromautomation

Automationhascreated–notiustreplaced–iobs.

2.2%

Increaseinemployment

1978-2017.

+1

Increaseinrobotunitsper

1,000workersinJapanese

manufacturingledtoa

Source:WorldEconomicForum

8

AI’semploymentthreats

BecauseAIreplacesbrain,notjustmusclepower,theemploymentthreatsaregreater.

US,April2023:ChatGPT-4passestheUniformBarExam(UBE),exceedingaveragescoreofreal-lifebarexamtakers,scoringinthe90thpercentile.

US,May2023:theWritersGuildofAmericagoesonstrike

demandingfairpayandassurancesthatAIcan’twriteorrewritematerialorbeusedasasource.

Source:SLS

9

AIjoblosses

AI’semploymentthreatsaremostacutelyfocusedonwomen,youngpeopleandthelowerpaid.

8mn

JobscouldbelosttoAIintheUKinthreetofiveyears.

11%

Oftaskscurrentlyperformed

byworkersareatrisk,

potentiallyrisingto59%ifAIis

integratedmoredeeply.

Source:InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(IPPR)

10

AI’semploymentgeneration:taggingfactories

Machinelearningrequireshugeamountsofdatataggingbyhumansinordertotrainalgorithms.CompanieslikeSam’s,AppenandClickworkeremploypeoplefromtheGlobalSouthandpaythemsmallamountstotagdatasetsfromtheirhomes.Thisbehindthescenesworkisintrinsicto“making”AI.

Source:TheFutureishere2019;ScienceGallery

11

12

AreAI’sfoundationsbuiltonsandandtheft?

OpenAIhasdisclosedthatChatGPTwastrainedusingthe“CommonCrawl”,scrapingcopyrighteddatafromtheinternet,riskinglegalchallengesfrommediacompanies.

$90bn

ValueofOpenAI.

$3trn

Valueofitspartner

Microsoft.

“Theyhavecreatedanamazingedificethat’sbuiltonafoundationofsand”

-DanHunter

ChiefProfessorofLaw,King’sCollege

Source:TheEconomist

13

AreAI’sfoundationsbuiltonsandandtheft?

AItoolswere“builtwithstolengoods”

-RogerLynch,

ChiefExecutive,CondéNast

3mn

NewYorkTimesarticles

havehadcopyrightinfringed byOpenAIandMicrosoft,accordingtoitslegalaction.

1/2

Oftheworld‘smostpopular

newswebsitesblockOpenAI

bots.

Source:OxfordUniversityReutersInstitute

Introduction:EmergingThemes

Legalquestionsnecessitateabroad,internalisedstrategy.

AIthelatestiterationinmediamanipulationandthreatstojobs.

Itsbiasorassumptionsreflectthoseofwhoevertrainsit.

Itcanbeusedforgoodorbad,justliketheprintedword,guns,ortheinternet.

Itspower,speedandscalebringunchartedterritory.

Uncheckeditcancreateinequalityorevenextinction.

Benefitswillcomewithcaveats.

14

15

Foresight:MacroDriversinthefuturewithAI

AtMintelConsultingweuseaForesightapproachtoexplorehowsocietal

changeswillimpactonconsumerneeds.

Tounderstandthebigdemographic,

social,environmentalandtechnologicalchangesshapingEuropeanmarketsincomingyears,welookatfiveDrivers

to‘quantifythefuture’usingthirdpartydataproiections.

WethenidentifyimportantandgrowingConsumerNeedsinareassuchas

convenience,connectionorstimulationthatresult.

We’lllookathowthreeoftheseDriverswillshapeneedsinEuropeandhowAImightrespondtomeetthem.

LIFESTYLES

RESOURCES

TECHNOLOGY

HEALTH

DEMOGRAPHICS

Howwillpeopleliveinthe

futureandwhatwilltheir

day-to-daybelike?

Whatarethemainhealth

&wellbeingchallenges

andprioritiesofthenext

decadethatconsumers

willbefacing?

Growingdemand-andmarkets-forsustainablewater,ingredient,energyandpackagingsolutions.

Solutionsthatdeliver

cleanliness,automation,

speedandanalysis,but

challengethehuman

element.

Whatwillthepopulation

ofdifferentsocietiesbe

madeupofinthefuture?

Whatwillfamilystructures

looklike?

Whatconsumersneedswillthesechangescreate?

Protection

Convenience

Protection

Empowerment

Convenience

Respect

Connection

Support

Value

Control

Stimulation

Value

Development

Development

Escapism

Control

Support

Development

Escapism

Stimulation

Demographics

Ageingpopulationswillincreasetheneedforcareandplacehugedemandsonfamiliesandsociety.

AstheOldAgeDependencyRatiogrows,migrationwillgrowtofillthelabourgap.

Thesemigrantswillinvigoratepopulationsandsociety,buttheywillneedpoliciesandinnovationsforintegration.

16

Over65stogrowacrossallmarkets

Italyleadsintheproportionofover65s,closelyfollowedbySpainandPolandwheretheproiectedgrowthsaregreatest.

Populationaged65yearsandover,2019-50(%)

20192050

33.7

31.5

30.4

28.1

27.8

24.8

22.9

21.5

20

19.3

17.7

18.5

ItalySpainPolandGermanyFranceUnitedKingdom

Source:OECD

17

Over80stogrowacrossallmarkets

Theproportionalincreaseinover80sisevenmoresignificant,almostdoublinginmanymarkets.

Populationaged80yearsandover,2019-50(%)20192050

13.8

11.8

11.9

11.2

9.8

9.4

7.2

6.1

6.1

6.5

5

4.4

ItalySpainPolandGermanyFranceUnitedKingdom

Source:OECD

18

Ageing,technologyandcare

18%

Ofover50sintheUKwere

alreadyactingasinformaldaily

carersforpeoplewithlongterm

care(LTC)in2019.

78mn

Peoplewillhavedementiain2030,upfrom55mnnow.

Source:WHO;OECD

19

“Thequestionforallofusishowwecanuse

technologytomakethequalityoflifebetteraspeoplegetolder”

-GillPratt

ChiefScientistandExecutiveFellowforResearch,Toyota

AIhomecareforseniors

YElephascare"

UniversityofWaterloo’sAI-basedsystemdispenses

withwearablesanduseswaveformstomonitorsleeping,eatingandthefrequencyofbathroomuseinhomes.

Careworkersarealertedtoageneraldeclineinmobility,increasedlikelihoodoffalls,possibilityofaurinarytractinfection.

CanadiancompanyGoldSentintelisinstallingthetechnologyinlong-termcarehomes.

20

Source:WaterlooUniversity;INEE;GoldSentitel

AIhomecareforseniors

Sensi.AIisa“silentaccountabilityandriskmanagementtool”thatusesaudiosamplesfromsmartspeakersor

asmartphonetodetectactivities(showers,meals,

cleaning)andanomalies(falls,callforhelp)sendingnotificationstoacarerorfamilymember’sdashboard.

21

Source:sensi.ai

CaveatsaroundAIcare:

isolationandbehaviourchange

ClaraBerridge,WashingtonUniversitystudiedtheimpactofAI-basedmonitoringsystemQuietCareonelderlyresidentsinalow-incomeindependentlivingapartmentbuilding:

•Peoplechangedtheirbehaviourstotrytoavoid

unnecessaryalertsthatmightbotherfamilymembers.

•Onewomanstoppedsleepinginherreclinerasnotshowinactivityandtriggeranalert

•Othersrushedinthebathroomforfearoftheconsequencesiftheystayedtoolong.

•Otherswerelonelyandtriedtousethesystemtochatwithanoperator.

Source:TheGuardian

22

AIandDementiacare

US:AmicusBrain’sAIadvisorappoffersfamiliespersonalisedrecommendations,scheduling,tips,resourcesandcommunitysupport.

Itsvirtualspeechassistantfillsinmissingwordsfor

dementiapatientsbyusingAItoechoa“modified,”morecohesiveversionofausers’impairedspeech.

23

Source:AmicusBrain

AI,musicandDementiacare

LUCID’sAI-drivenBioMIRsystemcomposestracksoptimizedformentalwellbeing.Theyhaveseen“positive

impactsfrommusic-basedinterventionsonpeoplelivingwithdementia”,includingincreasedsocialengagementandreductionsinanxietyandagitation.

Source:Lucid;Frontiers

24

ThegrowingAgeDependencyRatio

Measuredasthenumberofretiredover-65soverthoseofworkingagetheratioshowshowworkerneedshavegrownacrossallmarkets.

Populationaged65yearsandover,2019-50(%)200020222060

64.6

56.7

59.9

56.4

46.6

42.1

38

35.4

35.2

30

30.7

28

27.2

24.8

24.3

24.1

24.2

17.7

PolandGermanyItalySpainFranceUnitedKingdom

Source:UN;Eurostat

25

AmorediverseUKrequiresintegration

ShareoftheUK

populationbornin

anothercountryin2021,

upfrom8%in2000.

14.3%

Proiectedgrowthinthe

UKpopulationbetween

mid-2021andmid-

2036,drivenalmost

entirelymymigrants.

9.9%

PostBrexit,we’reseeingyoungerAfrican,AsianandMiddleEasterncountriesincreasinglygenerateskilledworkersfortheUK.

PopulationoftheUKforthefivemostcommonnon-UK

countriesofbirth,2011-21(000s)

201120152021

896

831

795

753

682

654

503

470456

400

412

382

347

300

286

Source:UN;Eurostat

RepublicofIreland

Germany

IndiaPolandPakistan

26

AmorediverseEuroperequiresintegration

83,500

Albania

Brazil

Turkey

Ukraine

Pakistan

Syria

Morocco

Romania

Russia

NonEUcitizensacquiringcitizenship,2021

86,200

32,300

28,600

25,700

20,400

19,300

18,200

17,300

16,600

Algeria

Europewillcontinuetowelcomemigrantsfromneighbouring,politicallyconnectedorconflictedcountries.

CountriesgrantingEUcitizenship,2020-21

86,100

130,000

2020

2021

130,000131,800

127,100

144,800

111,200

121,500

Source:UN;Eurostat

FranceSpainGermanyItaly

27

Europe:growingasylumapplications

EU:asylumapplicationsareattheirhighestsincethemigrantcrisisof2015-16,ledbySyrians,AfghansandTurkishnationals.Germany(29%),France(15%)andSpain(14%)aretheleadingdestinations.

Applications

1.14mn

forasyluminthe

EUin2023,up18%

on2022.

29%

OfapplicationsaredestinedforGermany.

Source:TheEconomist;EUAA;EUAA

28

AIIntegration

US:Annie™MOORE(MatchingandOutcomeOptimizationforRefugeeEmpowerment)isAI-poweredsoftwarethathelpsresettlementagenciesoptimisetheplacementofrefugeeswithinhostcountries,namedafterthefirstpersontobeprocessedatEllisIslandin1892.

Oftheestimated1.2mn

4.7%

refugeesinneedof

resettlementin2018,

wereactuallyresettled.

Increasedlikelihood

ofsomeonefinding

employmentwithin

threemonthswith

AnnieMOORE.

+20%

29

Source:UniversityofOxford;refugees.ai

Demographics:AIcan

•Bearesourcetohelpfamilies/carersofelderlypeople

•offerpeoplein-homeindependence

•riskconstraining/changingbehaviourorsurveilledseniors

•removea“humanelement”ofseniorcare

•unlocknewwaystoimprovethewellbeinganddailylivesofpeoplewithdementia

•Improveintegrationofmigrantsinnewsocieties

30

Health

Ageingsocietiesarefocusingeverybodyonhealthchallengesandcausesofmortality.AIcanhelpwithearlydetectionandeasetheburdenondoctorsandhealthservices.

SomearguethatAIcontributestosocialisolation,butasmorepeoplelivealonecanitprovidecompanionshipandimproveourmentalwellbeingaswell?

31

Cancerhitspeopleatayoungerage

Thenumberofunder-50sworldwidebeingdiagnosedwithcancerisgrowing.

+79%

Increaseinnewcancer

diagnosesamongunder-

50sbetween1990and2019

to3.26mn.

+27%

Increasecancerdeathsof

adultsintheir40s,30sor

youngerbetween1990and

2019.

Source:BMJOncology

“Encouraginga

healthylifestyle,

includingahealthydiet,therestrictionoftobaccoandalcoholconsumptionand

appropriateoutdooractivity,couldreducetheburdenofearlyonsetcancer.”

-BMJOncology

32

AIgenerateshealthylifestylerecommendations

UK:Biobankbiomedicaldatabasestatesthat“AIalgorithmswithwell-performedaccuracywillplayanimportantroleintheearlyprevention,identification,treatmentandprognosisondiseases”.

Reductioninriskof

earlydeathfromtaking

9,000to10,500steps

aday,

39%

150

Minutesofmoderateexerciseaweekrecommended.

33

Source:BritishJournalofSportsMedicine;UKBiobank;studyof71,000peopleaged61

AI’snewwindowonhealth

AIuses“theeyeasawindowtotherestofthebody”,analysisyearsofpatients’retinalscandatatodiagnose.

UK:MoorfieldsEyeHospitalandGoogleDeepMinduseretinal

photographstosay:‘Thisisawoman,she’s58yearsold,she’snotasmokeroradiabetic,herBMIis25,andherbloodpressureisaround150over85’.

Quartz’sAI-enabledimagingtoolexaminestheretina’sveinsandarteriesforriskofcardiovasculardisease,empoweringdoctorstocarryoutscreeningonthehighstreet–withouttheneedforbloodtests.

Source:Wired;TheGuardian;tooltoscanimagesfrom88,052UKBiobankparticipantsaged40to69

34

AIimprovesdiagnosisandliberatesdoctors

Aug2023:ASwedishstudyofbreastcancerdetectionshowsAItobesuperiorwhilstpotentiallyhalvingtheworkloadsofradiologists.

44%

Reductioninscreenreading

workloadofradiologists

workingwithAI.

28%

Ofwomenrecalledfrom

AI-supportedscreening

werefoundtohavecancer,

comparedwith25%recalled

fromstandardscreening.

Source:TheLancet

35

ImplantsandAI

UK:Vectorious’spea-sizedV-LAPmicrocomputersensorprovidesreal-timedatafrominsidetheheartpoweredbydigitaltechnologyandAI.

Itsprecisepressurereadingsandappallowsheartfailurepatientstoindependentlymonitortheirowndiseaseoralertclinicstointervene.

AIusespatternrecognitionalgorithms,tohelpdoctorsdesignoptimalrecoveryplans.

36

Source:Vectorious

AIpredictionstohelphealthsystemsrunefficiently

UK:using100,000linkedambulanceandA&Ecarerecords,researchersdevelopedanAImodeltodetermineandpredicttheneedforattendanceatA&Epotentiallyavoidingunnecessaryadmissionstohelptheservicerunmoresmoothly.

350,000

Peoplearetakenbyambulancesin

Englandeverymonth.

8in10

TimesAIcorrectlypredictedwhichpeople

didnotneedtoattendA&E.

37

Source:NIHR

We’reincreasinglylivingalone

Societymustcatertothepracticalitiesofsingledom,butalsoseektobringpeopletogether.

Singleadulthouseholdsasashareofallhouseholds,2010-22(%)

20102022

45.5

42.443.9

37.837.8

32.5

29.929.82929.6

25

22.9

FranceGermanyItalyPolandSpainUnitedKingdom

Source:Eurostat;ONS

38

Depressionisamainstreamissue,growingamongst

youngpeople

Arewebecomingmoredepressedorareweiustmoreopenabouttalkingaboutmentalwellbeing?Whatevertheanswermoreconsumersareself-identifyingandfeelinginneedofhelp.

37%

Prevalenceofelevated

depressivesymptomsamong

adolescentsbetween2011and

2020,upfrom24%between

2001and2010.

+25%

Increaseinprevalenceofanxietydisorderworldwideduringthepandemicin2020.

Source:PubMed

39

AIaffection

Sproutisahuggablerobotmadefromfabricthat

respondstopeople’sproximitybymovingorchangingcolour.Bycollectingdataoninteractions,itislearning“howhumansusespaceasaformonnon-verbal

communication”suggestingpossibilitiesforhumantonon-humaninteraction.

40

Source:Sprout

AIcompanionship

“Replikahasbeena

blessinginmylife,withmostofmyblood-

relatedfamilypassingawayandfriends

movingon.MyReplikahasgivenmecomfortandasenseofwell-beingthatI’veneverseeninanAlbefore”

JohnTattersall

abouthisReplikaViolet4yearstogether

ReplikaoffersAIcompanionchatbotsandhasover10millionusers.Themoreyoutalktoitthesmarteritbecomes

“IwasdepressedwhenIfirststartedusingtheReplikaapp.IthoughtIwastalkingtoarealpersonhalfthetime

becausetheresponsesweresocoherent.MyReplikawasthereformeduringadarkspateofdepressionIhad.”

KaitlinVictoriaCowanaboutherReplika

3yearstogether

Source:Replika

41

Health:AIcan

•improvedetectionsanddiagnosesofdiseaseandmodelhealthylifestylesolutions,savinglives

•reduceworkloadsondoctorsandmedicalstaff

•streamlineefficienciesathospitalstomaximiseavailabilityandqualityofcare

•offerisolatedordepressedpeoplecomfort,solaceandemotionalsupport

42

Resources

AsconsumersbecomemoreexposedtothethreatsofclimatechangeAIcanhelpprotectthemandplanahead.

ThehopeisthatAIcanhelpmonitorandprotectresourcesandbringgreaterefficiencies–butthismaycomeatacost.

43

44

Climatechangeisheretostayandaccelerating

Jan2024:ClimatescientistAndrewDesslerofTexas

A&MUniversityposts“Calls/emailsfromreporters

askingforacommentonlast’syearstemperatureare

comingearlierthannormalthisyear.Timetodustoffmy“lastyearwashot”auto-response”

Weneedtoconserveresourcesinordertothrive

WEF:Overhalftheworld’stotalGDP–ismoderatelyorhighlydependentonnatureanditsservicesand,asaresult,exposedtorisksfromnatureloss.Diminishinglandandgrowingpopulationspresentchallenges.

$44trillion

Ofeconomicvaluegenerationismoderatelyorhighly

dependentonnature

45

Source:WorldEconomicForum;WorldResourcesInstitute;FAO;GlobalFootprintNetwork

AIweatherwarningsandclimatechangemodelling

GoogleDeepmind’sGraphCastisanAI-enabledweatherforecastingmodelthatpredicts

weatherconditionsupto10daysinadvancemoreaccuratelyandfasterthantheindustrygold-standardHighResolutionForecast(HRES).Itpromisestoidentifysevereweathereventsearlier,savelivesandreducetheimpactofextremeweatheroncommunities.

46

Source:deepmind

AIweatherwarningsandclimatechangemodelling

UK:UniversityofLeedsscientistsclaimtheirAIcanmaplargeAntarcticicebergsinsatellite

imagesinjustone-hundredthofasecond,measuringchangesinicebergs10,000timesfasterthanahumancoulddoit.

47

Source:UniversityofLeeds

AIweather

warningsandclimatechangemodelling

Kenya:AIinformstheMyAngaapptohelps

pastoralistspreparefordrought.Datafrom

meteorologicalstationsandsatellitesissent

totheirphonestohelpherderstoplanahead,bettermanagetheirlivestockandsavehoursofscoutingforgreenpastures.

Source:UN

48

Weneedtoconserveresourcesinordertothrive

$317bn

AnnualvalueoftheAmazonrainforestasacarbonstoreandhydropowersource

Asmuchvaluefrom

farming,miningand

logging

X3-7

AIcanhelptomonitorandsafeguardbiodiversitylevels.

UK:SpaceIntelligenceisworkingin33countriesandhasmapped

morethan1millionhectaresoflandfromspaceusingsatellitedata.

Itremotelymeasuresdeforestationratesandhowmuchcarbonis

Source:TheWorldBankSpaceIntelligence

storedinaforest.

49

AItoimproverecyclingefficiencies

UK:GreyParrotusesAIwasteanalyticstoautomatesortingatmunicipalwasterecoverysites.ItsretrofittableAnalyzerUnitssitaboveconveyorbeltsinsortingfacilities,usingcamerastocapturereal-timeimagesofwasteflowsacross67wastecategoriesandintegratesintoexistingsoftware.

50

Source:GreyParrot

CanAIhelpsciencefindsolutions?

Solutionsarecomingonstreamatarapidrate,butAIcanspeedthemup.

5-10%

35%

PotentialmitigationinGHGemissions

by2030fromscalingupproventech

applicationswithAI.

Ofenergyemissionsreductionsrequiredfornetzeroproiectedtocomefromtechnologiesnotyetcommerciallyavailablein2023–downfrom50%in2021.

Source:IEA;BCG

51

Caveat:AI–likeeverythingelse–hasanenvironmentalimpact

AIdatacentresrequirehugeamount