国泰海通香江策论：美股分化显著成长有望回归

图2：黄金仍处于蓄势震荡期黄金现货价格(黄金现货价格(美元/盎司)3M隐含波动率(%,RHS)405,000354,500304,000 25203,500153,000102,500 5，海通国际，数据截止2026年2月20日2026年初至今市场表现呈现出两个突出特征：1）非美股市场持续强劲，主要受美国市场估值较贵，更偏成长属性，且传统上对周期性复苏的杠杆率不如日本、欧洲或新兴市场等其它全球股市。2）行业分化显著：大宗商品和工业领域表现出色，材料、工业、房地产等周期性行业持续上行，消费必需品亦强劲。图3：大类资产年初至今涨跌幅（截止2月20日），海通国际，数据截止2026年2月20日图4：美股行业板块分化（截止2月20日）美股各版块ETF年初至今涨跌幅（%）30.0020.0010.000.00-10.00-20.00-30.00，海通国际，数据截止2026年2月20日叠加前一阶段美国宏观经济数据略超预期，使得市场重新关注基本面向好的价值股，形成跷跷板效应，目前科技成长龙头与传统价值股龙头的估值已呈现趋同态势，比如AIPRICEIN松预期的再次升温，市场风格的钟摆有望回归科技成长。图5：微软vs埃克森美孚估值趋同45 微软(MICROSOFT) 埃克森美孚(EXXON4035302520151052023-01-012023-02-122023-01-012023-02-122023-03-262023-05-072023-06-182023-07-302023-09-102023-10-222023-12-032024-01-142024-02-252024-04-072024-05-192024-06-302024-08-112024-09-222024-11-032024-12-152025-01-262025-03-092025-04-202025-06-012025-07-132025-08-242025-10-052025-11-162025-12-282026-02-08

600%500%400%300%200%100%0%，海通国际，数据截止2026年2月20日APPENDIX1SummaryMacroeconomicResiliencePersists,butMomentumisDeceleratingThepreliminaryQ4annualizedrealGDPgrowthfortheU.S.cameinat1.4%,significantlytrailingmarketexpectationsof2.8%andthepreviousreadingof4.4%.Thisindicatesacoolingofeconomicgrowthfollowingahighbaseperiod.January’sCPIdatawasgenerallylowerthanexpected,withcoreinflationcontinuingitsmoderatedownwardtrend,providingtheFederalReservewithsomepolicymaneuveringroominthecomingmonths.January’snon-farmpayrollssignificantlyoutperformedexpectations;theresilienceinemploymentandwagegrowthsuggeststhatinternaldemandremainssupported.ThelatestFOMCminutesleanedhawkish,withsomemembersemphasizing"two-wayrisks"inthepolicyoutlook.Thishaspromptedacorrectioninthemarket’spreviousconsensusofa"one-waydownward"trajectoryforinterestrates.Overall,mainstreamWesterninstitutionsbelievethedisinflationarytrendhasbeenfullypricedintoassetvaluations.Toinitiateamoresubstantialeasingcycleortobringpolicyratesbelow3%,morepersuasivesignalsofdeclininginflationandeconomicdecelerationmayberequired.Non-U.S.MarketsOutperform,U.S.StocksBifurcate,GrowthPoisedforaComebackOnFebruary20,theU.S.SupremeCourtruledthatcertainlarge-scaletariffmeasuresimplementedbytheTrumpadministrationundertheInternationalEmergencyEconomicPowersAct(IEEPA)lackedclearlegalauthorization.Subsequently,TrumpinvokedSection122toimposeanadditional15%tariffonglobalgoodsontopofregularduties,whileSection301and232tariffsremainineffect.Whilethisbrieflysupportedriskassets,themarketreactionwasmutedasmuchofthiswasalreadypricedin.MarketfocushasshiftedtowardgeopoliticalrisksbetweentheU.S.andIran.BothpartiesconfirmedanewroundofnegotiationsinGenevaonFebruary26.Theoscillationbetweenmilitaryconfrontationanddiplomatictalkshastriggeredhighmarketvolatility.Preciousmetalscontinuetoclimbonsafe-havensentiment,withgoldreclaimingthe5,200level.believegoldiscurrentlyinaconsolidationphase;thecoreissueatthisstageisthedigestionofsignificantpriorgains.Whilethelong-termbullishlogicremainsintact,short-to-medium-termrange-boundtradingisexpectedtopersist.Sincethebeginningof2026,globalassetclasseshaveexhibitedtwoprominentcharacteristics:OutperformanceofNon-U.S.Markets:ThisisdrivenbyexpensivevaluationsintheU.S.anditsheaviertilttowardGrowth.Furthermore,U.S.indicestraditionallylessleveragetocyclicalrecoveriescomparedtoJapan,Europe,orEmergingMarkets.SignificantSectorDivergence:Commoditiesandindustrialsectorshaveperformedexceptionallywell.CyclicalsectorssuchasMaterials,Industrials,andRealEstatecontinuetotrendupward,alongsidestrongConsumerStaples.CoupledwithpreviousU.S.macrodataslightlybeatingexpectations,investorshaverefocusedonstockswithstrongfundamentals.Thishascreateda"seesaweffect,"wherethevaluationsofGrowthleadersandTraditionalleadersareconverging(e.g.,thevaluationsofMicrosoftandExxonMobilarenownearingparity).AsAI-relatedanxietyispricedinovertheshorttermandexpectationsofmonetaryeasingintheU.S.heatuponceagain,thependulumofmarketstyleisexpectedtoswingbacktowardtechgrowthstocks.RiskWarning:Politicalandgeopoliticalrisks;Economicgrowthfallingshortofexpectations.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，张忆东，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,YidongZhang,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhouseholdwhomIhavealreadynotifiedofthiswillnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，刘念芸，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,NianyunLiu,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhouseholdwhomIhavealreadynotifiedofthiswillnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，李加惠，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,JiahuiLi,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下中性12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100,美国–SP500;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInte