银行业投资观察：节后流动性无虞关注二季度通胀格局

目录索引一、期察：A股整体落，H股行于A股 6二、资议节流性无，注季通格局 6三、块现银板下跌周换率落 10四、股现：A股整体落城行对健 15五、债现本银转债均格涨0.48% 23六、利测踪：25利润速致期本变 26七、险示 30图表索引图1：行块市数表现 7图2：行块现盘 7图3：板超收盘 8图4：板绝收况 8图5：2024Q4末募金持仓北持仓VS以来场跌（%） 9图6：母利润TTM比增（新得）VS初以市涨幅（%） 9图7：行块、 全A非融油化表现 10图8：行块、 全A非融油化换手（） 图9：盈：行 14图10：对盈：/ 全A金石化 14图市率银行 14图12：对净：/ 全A金石化 14图13：息：行 14图14：对息：/ 全A金石化 14图15：行债对与相收（） 24图16：行债银块、转指累收率 24图17：行债性一览至2026年2月20日） 25图18：行债位一览至2026年2月20日） 25图19：有行利速预（2025E） 28图20：有行收预测（2025E） 28图21：有行利速预（2025E） 28图22：有行收预测（2025E） 28图23：份净润预测（2025E） 29图24：份营增测（2025E） 29图25：商净润预测（2025E） 29图26：商营增测（2025E） 29图27：商净润预测（2025E） 29图28：商营增测（2025E） 29TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：信级业涨跌情（） 12表2：信级业换手情（） 13表3：市行间幅情（） 16表4：市行间率情（） 18表5：市行对/相估值股率所分情况 20表6：A+H上银行AH溢价及处位况 22表7：行债键一览 23表8：行债间幅情（） 24表9：行债间率情（） 24表10：A上银净润增预跟（2025E） 26表股市行增速测踪（2025E） 27一、本期观察：A股银行整体回落，H股银行优于A股本期观察区间：2026/2/9-2026/2/20本数来于 数。（图（2026/2/9-2026/2/20）全A1.1%，（23A-0.52%-0.81%。恒生综合指数上涨0.4%，H股银行跌幅0.2%，跑输恒生综合指数，跑赢A股银行。个股表现方（表据示A股行幅前为夏行涨2.28%、南京行涨1.43%，幅前为庆银下4.40%、安行下跌3.61%。H股银行涨幅前三为民生银行上涨4.80%、浙商银行上涨1.96%、青岛银行上涨0.91%，跌幅三邮银下2.68%农银下跌1.64%、庆行跌1.62%。银行转债方（图72表79： 数显本银行债均格涨，跑输证债0.60百点券面涨前为上转（+1.26%）重银转债（+0.51%）、兴业转债（+0.25%），跌幅靠前为紫银转债（下跌0.02%）。盈利预期方面（图21-30，表10-11）：本期共3家银行25年业绩增速一致预期有变化（A250.00pct、0.00pct。二、投资建议：节后流动性无虞，关注二季度通胀格局节前流动性受到春节长假两方面影响，一方面居民节前取现影响了超储，另一方面长假的不确定性压低了风偏，而春节期间外盘及港股总体上涨，考虑到跨境流动性的持续改善，节后资金回流和风偏回升有望支撑风险资产表现，银行虽大概率无相对收益，但估值有望获得流动性支撑，从而获得一定的绝对收益，节后至两会期间预计板块总体呈现跟随上涨的局面。展望二季度，今年的核心问题在于二季度是否会看到通胀的加速修复和长期利率的继续回升，如果通胀加速修复格局确立，高股息和债性资产估值将被压制，今年银行板块的目标回报率则需要下调，通胀格局及其对利率的影响也需要重点关注。图1：银行板块和市场指数表现绝对收益行情区间表现(4.01-2.13)40.4%37.6%40.4%37.6%16.6%15.7%11.8%5.4%-4.4%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%，注：银行指数为 行业指数:银行，国有行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行图2：银行板块表现复盘10.8发革委宣布加力推出

12.3112月制造业PMI连续

4.2美国关税政策落地

美国关税政策落地，中国进行反制30.0%

一揽子增量政策

三个月稳定在扩张区间

4.25政治局会议:加紧实施更加积极有25.0%

10.12财政部加力支持地方化债，发行特别国债支持国有大行补充核心一级资本10.171.324Q4

为的宏观政策，适时降准降息7.15上半年GDP为66.05万亿元，同比+5.3%“组合拳”

“择机降准降息”5.7国新办发布会介绍“一揽子金融政策”，证10.181.10

11.1310月社融公布，存款20.0%

述核心政策思路

在公开市场买入国债

8.137月社融数据回升

搬家继续10.2110月LPR

1.1412月社融增速超预期

9.3举办抗战胜利80周年阅兵…15.0%

下调25bp10.3110月PMI超季节性好转

8.4对购买国债等债务取得

10.28上证指数突破4000点12.1211月社融公布10.0%

1.1510.15

1.9元旦假期后上证指数高6.20央行、香港金融管理

月社融微降

涨，突破4100点5.0%

11.6特朗普胜选

局共同推动跨境支付通

9.18美联储宣布降息25bp0.0%

3.6潘行长答记者问，修12.9

6.18陆家嘴金融论坛聚焦9.23央行召开三季度货币政策例会“全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展”-5.0%

12.2央行宣布25年1月起启用新M1统计口径

3.5人大开幕，GDP目标5%，赤字率拟按4%左右安排

5.55.201年及5年LPR11.29

10BP，六大行下调存款挂牌利美联储降息

习总书记出席民营企业座谈会率纳入自律管理2.141月社融增速超预期，开门红表现亮眼

率5.144月信贷增速较弱常委会审议通过化债方案11.1510月经济数据初步好转-15.0% 1.22

5.12中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布-20.0%

相对收益 银行(申万)；注：银行指数为 行业指数:银行80.0%国有大行80.0%国有大行(相对)农商行(相对)股份行(相对) 银行(申万)70.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨月月：月月：12月-25年3月：-大行防御-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情60.0%价值再现回调-区域行表现较好城商行(相对)高利润增速银行(相对)4月-：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图4：分板块绝对收益情况国有大行(绝) 股份行(绝对) 城商行(绝对)90.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨5月-8月：-大行防御价值再现90.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨5月-8月：-大行防御价值再现月月：12月-25年3月：80.0%-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情回调-区域行表现较好4月-：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图5：2024Q4末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）0张家港0张家港3重庆江阴平安江苏成都4苏农中国工商沪农苏州南京中信 光大浦发北京农业建设招商交通兴业76瑞丰5浙商21邮储民生青农渝农长沙杭州兰州郑州宁波厦门常熟齐鲁西安无锡紫金青岛20152026年以来涨跌幅（2026年以来涨跌幅（%）50-5-10-15-20-25

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2025Q4）图6：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）江苏0江苏0银行浦发交通工商沪农农业中国江阴南京中信设郑州3530252015重庆 瑞丰10苏州5兰州邮储招商齐鲁青农上海杭州苏农厦门成都长沙西安宁波渝农光大北京青岛20152026年以来涨跌幅（2026年以来涨跌幅（%）50-5建-10-15-20-25

归母净利润TTM同比增速(最新）三、板块表现：银行板块下跌，周度换手率回落涨跌幅：本期（2026/2/9-2026/2/20）银行（中信一级行业）板块整体下跌1.28%，在30个中信一级行业第23，跑输 A（金融、石油石化）指数约2.72个百分点。（0.53个百分点，在3030。2026年02月20（）0.65X（/A（指数为在历史平均水平。图7：银行板块、 全A非金融石油石化指数现16.00% 12(全A非金融、石油石化16.00% 12(全A非金融、石油石化) 12(银行（右轴）)4.00%14.00%3.50%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%118%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.50%.21%.4.00% 1.00%.2.00% 0.50%0.00% 0.00%图8：银行板块、 全A非金融石油石化区间手率（周）15,000

全A非融、油石化 银行 银行/ 全A非融、油石（右）

2.0013,000 1.8011,000 1.609,000 1.407,000 1.205,000 1.003,000 0.802026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初以来计算机4.00%-3.88%-4.47%-0.46%4.31%8.42%0.80%7.50%电子3.70%-5.09%-2.18%1.58%3.64%7.39%-0.19%8.84%传媒3.66%-3.30%0.32%0.96%3.34%13.55%2.27%19.12%机械2.47%1.08%-4.23%4.12%1.36%5.72%1.00%10.68%建材2.38%0.91%0.08%9.18%-0.48%4.00%-1.25%16.82%有色金属2.29%-8.46%3.70%5.97%3.03%8.66%0.38%15.19%通信2.21%-6.73%4.77%-1.68%0.77%1.61%-1.15%0.55%煤炭1.86%-0.61%3.98%1.44%-3.34%6.26%-0.74%9.68%汽车1.74%0.47%-5.12%2.21%0.71%2.73%1.49%2.55%基础化工1.41%-1.68%-2.40%5.73%1.27%5.39%-0.88%9.81%轻工制造1.27%0.41%-1.55%4.59%-1.04%3.47%-0.59%7.20%国防军工1.12%0.10%-7.60%4.72%-5.66%14.56%3.83%5.85%电力设备及新能源1.04%2.08%-4.56%2.77%0.36%4.96%-1.91%6.57%钢铁1.01%-3.02%-2.02%6.98%-1.62%3.35%-0.55%4.41%建筑0.16%-1.19%-1.55%1.68%0.06%5.32%-0.51%4.40%家电0.16%1.15%-2.53%0.44%-0.10%2.19%0.69%1.24%消费者服务-0.02%0.70%-3.34%2.54%-0.99%2.54%0.59%1.30%电力及公用事业-0.63%0.15%-1.61%2.24%-0.25%2.40%-2.35%2.28%房地产-0.65%-0.04%-2.10%5.14%-3.28%5.84%-0.68%4.63%石油石化-0.68%-2.37%6.92%7.76%-0.40%0.17%3.92%11.46%医药-0.85%0.35%-3.33%-0.38%-0.72%7.70%-2.02%2.45%综合金融-1.25%0.30%-6.16%1.76%-2.38%2.48%5.13%-5.37%银行-1.28%2.08%0.87%-2.69%-2.60%-1.88%0.99%-5.45%综合-1.35%-0.51%-3.96%3.51%-1.76%3.17%-0.72%-1.12%交通运输-1.40%1.84%-1.29%1.63%-1.17%-0.03%-0.68%-0.48%非银行金融-1.54%-0.68%1.18%-1.49%-2.76%2.77%-1.93%-2.59%农林牧渔-2.07%-1.72%1.54%0.67%-3.49%0.99%0.20%-4.11%纺织服装-2.24%2.23%-2.52%3.52%-0.85%2.89%0.55%2.88%食品饮料-2.52%4.44%1.79%-1.57%-2.03%2.14%-2.28%2.08%商贸零售-3.07%-0.91%-2.09%2.24%-0.16%4.43%-3.13%0.24%2026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初以来传媒35.21%28.28%30.30%23.63%42.13%29.71%10.31%189.26%电力设备及新能源19.80%22.93%24.31%26.99%26.22%21.64%9.88%141.90%计算机18.60%17.52%24.18%23.09%40.66%25.77%10.70%149.81%国防军工17.46%20.97%25.04%30.48%38.98%41.93%19.95%174.86%建材15.04%15.07%16.22%16.26%15.42%13.02%7.36%91.03%消费者服务15.02%16.18%17.68%18.02%32.90%19.35%9.53%119.14%轻工制造14.18%13.33%15.28%15.79%19.05%17.43%10.45%95.06%有色金属14.17%20.49%30.85%20.06%21.39%19.27%10.07%126.22%基础化工13.92%15.07%19.85%18.65%18.75%17.46%8.10%103.69%机械12.17%13.67%17.29%15.72%19.66%18.08%8.63%96.59%电子12.12%14.17%20.18%19.99%21.85%19.17%7.99%107.48%农林牧渔10.59%17.13%21.27%12.96%14.87%14.09%8.82%90.89%纺织服装10.32%11.60%11.84%11.07%14.17%13.33%8.06%72.34%综合10.19%11.75%15.99%13.74%15.71%14.58%9.78%81.95%通信10.03%10.88%12.34%11.34%16.31%13.56%6.33%74.46%综合金融9.64%8.99%10.38%12.51%24.79%21.51%11.86%87.81%商贸零售9.44%13.37%14.57%13.83%22.28%16.56%9.84%90.05%家电9.10%9.40%12.08%13.42%15.98%11.79%5.89%71.77%汽车9.04%11.04%13.43%15.72%18.85%17.04%8.99%85.11%房地产8.95%12.01%13.44%13.72%12.91%13.02%6.08%74.06%钢铁8.48%8.59%13.68%11.17%10.80%8.74%3.33%61.46%煤炭8.47%12.33%12.97%8.10%8.23%10.64%3.01%60.75%医药7.86%9.28%14.03%10.99%17.53%11.77%4.48%71.45%建筑6.90%8.88%13.22%10.82%11.22%7.43%3.64%58.46%食品饮料6.89%10.18%9.74%7.78%8.82%7.62%4.06%51.04%电力及公用事业5.47%6.11%7.33%7.04%7.51%5.41%3.12%38.87%交通运输3.76%5.19%5.57%4.48%5.15%4.62%2.85%28.77%石油石化3.29% 4.22%6.44%3.87%3.87%3.60%1.73%25.28%非银行金融3.09%4.51%6.39%4.45%7.98%7.08%2.21%33.49%银行1.21%1.74%2.04%1.53%1.61%1.32%0.67%9.46%图9：市盈率：银行 图10：相对市盈率：银/ 全A非金融石油石化 均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位9.00 1%分位 6.005.004.003.00

0.400.350.300.250.200.150.10

均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位 0.700.30 0.60 0.250.500.200.400.15图11：市净率：银行 图0.700.30 0.60 0.250.500.200.400.15 均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位 均值 均值-1倍标准差1%分位 均值+1 99%分位1.20 1%分位0.501.10 0.451.000.90 0.400.800.35 图13：股息率：银行 图14：相对股息率：银/ 非金融石油石化

均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位

均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位5.00 4.504.003.503.002.502.001.50 四、个股表现：A股银行整体回落，城商行相对稳健+2.28%+1.43%（-1.67%-1.53%、-0.52%、-0.81%，城商行表现较好。换手率：本期个股换手率靠前的为青岛银行8.73%、兰州银行、江阴银行7.07%周换手0.62%2.00%2.96%农商行整体交易活跃度更高。7.07X5.71X5.87X0.68X0.54X0.67X、1.070.860.89（LF）分别为1.06、0.84、1.04、0.93。2026/2/132026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初以来华夏银行2.28%3.79%0.16%-0.31%-4.73%-1.46%0.73%-0.49%南京银行1.43%5.89%1.74%-0.96%-3.51%-5.25%1.87%-1.05%民生银行1.29%3.47%-0.27%0.00%-1.57%-0.26%-0.78%2.61%渝农商行1.06%1.54%5.88%-0.45%-3.35%1.70%1.89%6.33%齐鲁银行0.49%1.20%5.05%2.59%-4.09%-1.92%2.68%3.11%北京银行0.19%1.89%0.76%0.38%-4.90%0.55%-0.18%-1.28%长沙银行0.10%1.54%4.16%2.52%-3.69%-2.16%-0.10%2.27%浙商银行0.00%1.72%-1.36%-1.01%-1.65%-0.33%-0.33%-2.63%江苏银行-0.19%2.76%4.11%-0.31%-3.14%0.00%1.56%3.11%贵阳银行-0.34%0.52%-0.34%1.04%-1.54%-0.17%-0.51%-0.85%成都银行-0.49%1.49%2.81%-0.51%-2.23%0.00%-1.53%0.99%郑州银行-0.52%0.52%0.00%0.00%-1.55%0.52%-1.03%-1.04%光大银行-0.60%2.75%-1.48%0.60%-2.90%-1.15%-0.57%-2.85%青农商行-0.63%0.32%0.00%2.28%-0.97%0.00%-0.96%0.97%中国银行-0.75%-0.37%1.90%-2.41%-1.64%-4.19%2.14%-7.33%交通银行-0.89%1.36%-0.30%-3.35%-2.83%-2.48%0.42%-8.28%沪农商行-0.93%-0.35%1.18%-3.19%-2.88%-2.80%2.65%-8.72%张家港行-1.07%2.41%2.24%1.13%-2.64%-0.66%-0.44%1.31%紫金银行-1.07%1.46%1.44%0.73%-0.72%0.36%0.00%2.19%苏州银行-1.08%1.46%2.11%0.62%-1.60%-1.81%-0.72%-0.36%苏农银行-1.17%2.19%0.00%1.21%-1.59%-0.20%-0.98%0.40%无锡银行-1.17%1.36%1.55%-0.17%-1.19%-0.67%0.00%-0.34%平安银行-1.27%2.03%-1.46%-1.79%-2.36%0.44%-1.13%-4.38%杭州银行-1.40%1.86%5.76%-0.59%-0.45%1.05%0.20%6.22%建设银行-1.58%1.38%0.81%-3.35%-1.21%-2.37%2.09%-6.25%瑞丰银行-1.62%2.02%-0.73%1.29%-1.28%-3.68%0.18%-4.04%青岛银行-1.63%5.75%15.49%6.35%-4.06%-1.12%-1.32%21.21%江阴银行-1.71%2.41%1.11%1.57%-2.63%0.00%-1.72%0.66%兰州银行-1.72%2.15%0.43%0.43%-1.28%0.86%-0.43%0.83%兴业银行-1.91%3.80%-2.20%-4.78%-3.65%-1.04%-0.38%-9.59%工商银行-2.07%0.14%0.55%-5.26%-1.30%-2.77%1.54%-10.34%邮储银行-2.12%2.37%0.20%-2.32%-2.45%-0.55%0.93%-4.87%招商银行-2.25%2.40%3.12%-3.15%-3.83%-1.90%0.96%-5.68%浦发银行-2.27%0.80%-4.47%-4.80%-4.33%-7.23%6.14%-20.50%农业银行-2.40%-0.74%-0.44%-6.38%-2.70%-3.52%2.26%-15.23%常熟银行-2.45%0.55%1.67%3.01%-0.85%-0.14%-0.28%1.70%宁波银行-3.32%4.26%6.80%-1.09%4.09%0.21%0.32%11.07%西安银行-3.61%3.47%1.63%1.37%-2.41%0.81%-1.07%1.08%重庆银行-4.40%1.81%0.48%2.45%-2.49%-1.97%-0.18%-4.23%民生银行H4.80%1.80%1.83%1.60%-2.59%-2.77%0.76%5.60%表3：上市银行区间涨跌幅情况（周）浙商银行H1.96%2.00%1.63%-0.81%-0.80%-1.19%-0.39%3.17%青岛银行H0.91%4.28%7.67%3.44%-1.56%0.52%-1.29%15.36%中国光大银行H0.30%3.68%2.52%-2.15%-6.14%-2.19%-0.54%-3.71%江西银行H0.00%-1.41%4.41%0.00%1.49%0.00%0.00%4.48%郑州银行H0.00%-0.88%-0.88%0.00%-0.87%0.00%-1.71%-2.61%广州农商银行H0.00%0.66%-6.21%6.62%0.00%-0.66%-1.30%0.00%建设银行H-0.13%0.76%3.94%-2.81%3.16%-2.69%3.17%3.51%交通银行H-0.14%2.98%3.23%-1.66%3.12%-2.13%2.50%7.13%中国银行H-0.21%-0.21%4.71%-0.89%2.51%-3.09%2.26%4.26%重庆农村商业银行H-0.33%4.80%2.28%-2.23%-2.51%-0.17%1.14%2.82%招商银行H-0.77%2.76%3.15%-2.36%-3.09%-6.35%3.78%-5.47%渤海银行H-1.12%-2.20%-1.09%2.22%-1.10%-6.19%3.19%-7.37%工商银行H-1.23%0.00%5.53%-3.15%3.59%-3.31%3.43%1.91%重庆银行H-1.62%1.91%5.50%-0.40%-3.10%-2.52%-0.38%0.51%农业银行H-1.64%0.55%2.82%-4.32%0.54%-5.15%3.92%-6.40%邮储银行H-2.68%2.55%1.80%-1.38%0.40%-3.62%1.46%-1.81%2026/2/132026/2/62026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初以来青岛银行8.73%15.93%18.28%9.80%7.34%6.31%3.43%66.39%兰州银行7.11%9.87%8.71%6.19%6.95%4.90%1.93%43.74%江阴银行7.07%9.68%8.03%6.01%8.00%6.85%5.17%45.63%紫金银行6.60%7.89%7.81%5.34%5.99%3.66%2.01%37.29%苏农银行6.60%9.34%7.70%6.23%6.02%5.17%3.03%41.05%郑州银行6.38%8.29%7.37%6.29%7.62%4.97%2.12%40.92%青农商行5.42%7.45%5.86%4.11%4.95%4.09%1.67%31.89%常熟银行5.39%7.81%7.70%10.47%5.78%5.45%2.21%42.62%张家港行5.21%6.91%6.57%4.67%5.67%5.68%3.79%34.70%民生银行4.83%5.64%5.34%3.54%4.93%3.47%1.98%27.75%建设银行4.58%6.18%6.64%5.60%5.80%5.23%2.45%34.03%瑞丰银行4.40%6.33%6.09%6.22%5.45%5.17%3.91%33.66%齐鲁银行4.17%7.07%5.86%4.27%4.90%3.98%3.47%30.25%贵阳银行4.05%5.95%5.01%3.09%4.42%3.62%2.17%26.14%无锡银行3.89%5.30%4.28%3.27%3.48%3.95%1.81%24.18%西安银行3.63%3.77%3.03%2.23%3.44%1.88%1.22%17.97%重庆银行3.34%4.03%3.09%2.96%2.95%3.18%1.59%19.54%苏州银行2.96%4.67%5.13%3.35%4.72%3.99%2.06%24.82%渝农商行2.90%4.09%5.33%5.01%4.15%4.62%2.22%26.11%交通银行2.69%3.80%5.28%3.73%3.11%2.36%1.40%20.96%浙商银行2.59%3.06%3.58%2.73%2.55%1.59%1.03%16.10%北京银行2.53%4.39%4.63%3.64%5.53%2.90%1.32%23.62%光大银行2.33%3.66%4.78%2.42%2.75%2.10%1.12%18.04%成都银行2.30%4.29%5.42%5.33%4.45%4.21%2.35%26.00%杭州银行2.22%3.48%5.55%4.22%5.21%4.26%1.57%24.93%南京银行2.05%3.22%2.94%2.85%3.52%4.00%1.07%18.58%江苏银行1.98%3.31%4.75%3.71%4.04%3.39%1.78%21.19%宁波银行1.94%3.07%3.91%3.32%3.43%2.93%0.88%18.61%长沙银行1.89%2.83%2.59%2.03%2.26%2.22%0.89%13.82%华夏银行1.85%2.37%2.72%2.35%2.83%1.67%0.80%13.79%招商银行1.54%2.56%4.58%3.44%3.40%2.30%1.00%17.80%平安银行1.49%2.39%3.29%2.25%2.68%2.70%0.94%14.79%兴业银行1.48%2.84%4.46%3.05%2.57%1.73%0.92%16.13%浦发银行0.95%1.27%2.03%1.59%1.33%1.31%0.73%8.48%沪农商行0.87%1.52%2.26%1.52%1.33%1.34%0.58%8.85%邮储银行0.82%1.38%1.33%1.08%1.24%1.08%0.59%6.93%农业银行0.54%0.60%0.87%0.67%0.61%0.41%0.25%3.70%中国银行0.47%0.76%0.85%0.68%0.71%0.82%0.38%4.29%工商银行0.45%0.69%0.85%0.69%0.62%0.57%0.28%3.87%民生银行H2.21%1.46%3.05%3.86%1.77%1.85%0.99%14.30%表4：上市银行区间换手率情况（周）重庆农村商业银行H1.88%3.38%3.31%2.36%2.30%2.54%1.29%15.83%招商银行H1.55%2.19%2.80%1.73%1.76%1.66%2.11%11.95%郑州银行H1.44%2.54%2.86%1.37%1.08%0.71%0.43%10.02%邮储银行H1.41%1.03%1.37%0.76%0.74%0.68%0.55%6.06%青岛银行H1.23%1.80%2.05%1.01%0.55%0.33%0.23%6.99%农业银行H1.05%1.16%1.67%1.36%1.16%1.78%2.03%8.38%中国银行H0.78%1.10%1.52%0.82%1.13%1.18%0.82%6.67%工商银行H0.66%1.08%1.62%0.88%1.04%1.38%1.10%6.81%中国光大银行H0.47%0.58%0.71%0.95%0.78%0.47%0.34%4.00%浙商银行H0.43%0.53%0.44%0.64%0.84%0.51%0.29%3.42%建设银行H0.34%0.49%0.66%0.36%0.53%0.48%0.36%2.91%重庆银行H0.30%0.69%0.53%0.31%0.57%0.82%0.34%3.24%交通银行H0.28%0.33%0.61%0.26%0.32%0.33%0.28%2.17%江西银行H0.18%0.19%0.32%0.17%0.14%0.20%0.28%1.27%渤海银行H0.17%0.20%0.34%0.29%0.27%0.45%1.12%1.83%广州农商银行H0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%单家银行（PE单家银行（PE、PB单位：倍） 单家银行/银行板块（PE、PB单位：倍）PE所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位工商银行6.9181.30%0.6735.30%4.30%81.30%1.0487.90%1.0476.70%0.914.30%建设银行6.7570.00%0.6733.50%3.21%70.00%1.0266.70%1.0451.70%0.688.50%农业银行7.9094.50%0.8469.90%3.76%94.50%1.1994.00%1.3094.10%0.808.40%中国银行7.1492.00%0.6547.50%4.08%92.00%1.0887.10%1.0080.40%0.878.90%邮储银行6.9867.80%0.6112.30%4.20%67.80%1.0639.50%0.9426.40%0.8958.30%交通银行6.1970.00%0.5236.30%4.53%70.00%0.9469.90%0.8157.40%0.9611.60%招商银行6.5018.70%0.929.50%7.78%18.70%0.983.20%1.425.20%1.6599.20%兴业银行5.0530.10%0.496.80%8.79%30.10%0.761.70%0.760.80%1.8799.50%浦发银行6.5972.60%0.4526.40%3.77%72.60%1.0069.20%0.6928.80%0.8052.30%民生银行5.6767.40%0.319.60%5.04%67.40%0.8649.00%0.475.80%1.0740.00%光大银行4.8231.40%0.402.90%5.78%31.40%0.735.20%0.614.30%1.2372.70%平安银行4.9117.80%0.482.90%5.48%17.80%0.746.70%0.745.10%1.1682.10%华夏银行3.9429.60%0.3515.60%6.02%29.60%0.605.20%0.545.50%1.2891.40%浙商银行5.8358.30%0.4615.00%5.27%58.30%0.8837.70%0.7130.20%1.1274.50%北京银行4.3527.30%0.4112.70%3.70%27.30%0.665.00%0.644.70%0.794.90%江苏银行5.5852.40%0.7756.70%5.25%52.40%0.8428.80%1.1880.30%1.1166.60%宁波银行7.0224.00%0.9321.20%3.85%24.00%1.0621.00%1.4322.70%0.8297.30%南京银行6.4155.00%0.7721.00%4.38%55.00%0.9752.50%1.1944.70%0.9332.40%杭州银行6.1828.40%0.8840.90%4.07%28.40%0.9326.00%1.3656.80%0.8686.60%成都银行5.1826.90%0.8111.20%5.47%26.90%0.784.80%1.2628.10%1.1688.90%长沙银行4.8746.80%0.5736.40%6.25%46.80%0.7422.10%0.8828.20%1.3395.90%重庆银行6.3758.30%0.6561.70%4.08%58.30%0.9647.70%1.0162.60%0.8754.50%贵阳银行4.1739.40%0.343.20%4.98%39.40%0.6310.50%0.527.00%1.0688.10%郑州银行9.0956.00%0.385.00%1.05%56.00%1.3746.10%0.5914.60%0.2268.40%青岛银行6.0931.70%0.7448.30%2.95%31.70%0.9225.10%1.1441.80%0.6323.30%苏州银行6.8839.70%0.7549.60%4.96%39.70%1.0433.10%1.1649.00%1.0588.80%齐鲁银行6.2565.80%0.7558.90%3.98%65.80%0.9459.20%1.1671.10%0.8484.90%兰州银行6.874.50%0.432.60%4.41%4.50%1.0453.80%0.6756.30%0.9487.70%西安银行6.2431.10%0.4810.20%2.67%31.10%0.9417.80%0.7425.30%0.5735.90%渝农商行6.3584.90%0.5876.30%4.72%84.90%0.9678.40%0.9089.20%1.0038.60%沪农商行6.6170.00%0.6558.20%5.12%70.00%1.0059.00%1.0067.20%1.0978.30%青农商行5.8524.80%0.4716.10%3.83%24.80%0.8817.40%0.7222.50%0.8178.60%常熟银行5.665.60%0.808.60%5.27%5.60%0.866.60%1.2311.50%1.1295.70%紫金银行6.8749.30%0.516.80%3.61%49.30%1.0427.60%0.7919.00%0.7786.90%无锡银行5.5921.60%0.595.60%5.58%21.60%0.859.40%0.9110.00%1.1997.70%张家港行5.7625.50%0.6318.80%6.48%25.50%0.8716.80%0.9716.70%1.3896.40%苏农银行5.0115.80%0.5410.40%5.00%15.80%0.767.20%0.8310.70%1.0695.60%江阴银行5.1815.00%0.6019.70%6.52%15.00%0.787.00%0.9317.00%1.3897.80%表5：上市银行绝对/相对估值、股息率及所处分位情况瑞丰银行5.3511.60%0.5610.80%3.66%11.60%0.8149.10%0.8651.30%0.7893.60%工商银行H5.9381.30%0.5548.90%5.24%81.30%0.9084.30%0.8480.20%1.113.60%建设银行H5.7678.60%0.5542.60%5.36%78.60%0.8784.60%0.8678.20%1.147.00%农业银行H6.4292.10%0.6361.40%4.97%92.10%0.9798.20%0.9798.20%1.065.90%中国银行H6.1290.10%0.5156.20%5.41%90.10%0.9399.70%0.7998.80%1.158.60%邮储银行H6.9072.30%0.5522.70%5.07%72.30%1.0462.50%0.8538.30%1.0846.80%交通银行H6.3896.30%0.4953.40%5.59%96.30%0.9699.50%0.7693.10%1.196.70%招商银行H7.8442.80%1.0329.50%6.78%42.80%1.1830.20%1.5936.60%1.4498.80%民生银行H6.3796.40%0.3041.90%5.23%96.40%0.9698.00%0.4657.90%1.1116.70%中国光大银行H5.1583.10%0.3742.30%6.19%83.10%0.7891.40%0.5771.60%1.3113.80%浙商银行H5.0239.20%0.3721.50%6.55%39.20%0.7623.20%0.5720.70%1.3959.40%渤海银行H3.2115.50%0.143.20%0.00%15.50%0.4934.60%0.2238.60%0.000.00%重庆银行H4.7780.20%0.4050.40%5.73%80.20%0.7296.20%0.6192.50%1.2234.50%郑州银行H6.5080.70%0.2026.80%1.96%80.70%0.9872.20%0.3123.90%0.4268.80%青岛银行H5.1526.20%0.5935.20%3.94%26.20%0.7829.80%0.9241.20%0.847.20%江西银行H6.1037.10%0.107.50%5.95%37.10%0.9237.40%0.1513.60%1.2684.80%重庆农村商业银行H5.4286.90%0.4853.70%5.65%86.90%0.8296.40%0.7494.90%1.207.50%注：所处分位指2017年至今表6：A+H上市银行AH溢价率及所处分位情况所处分位2026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初交通银行57.00%24.93%21.87%25.58%24.51%25.15%23.50%30.73%26.75%33.34%39.79%38.48%39.58%32.80%27.18%32.67%31.72%33.61%77.00%35.53%36.14%37.63%41.49%44.28%48.93%45.85%47.11%43.80%28.06%28.88%28.82%31.76%33.52%38.99%40.04%42.24%26.00%12.19%11.19%11.15%12.40%13.23%19.05%14.93%13.42%1.40%7.92%8.85%10.36%13.74%15.46%22.40%22.36%24.45%浙商银行0.30%-11.24%-9.61%-9.48%-9.88%-9.34%-8.47%-12.96%-11.72%2.80%1.90%7.70%9.99%8.00%9.76%11.26%9.99%6.81%7.90%9.96%9.93%14.09%18.18%14.69%7.11%5.57%6.15%39.10%26.76%30.31%30.40%33.72%33.70%34.71%33.03%33.56%重庆银行10.70%48.19%49.49%49.33%56.06%51.37%50.25%51.20%52.74%32.80%108.86%92.44%89.36%86.83%86.41%87.50%85.81%85.81%62.80%39.95%41.15%38.91%28.91%25.10%28.22%29.84%29.17%渝农商行13.10%23.59%20.89%24.52%19.73%21.19%22.11%14.99%16.30%注：所处分位指2017年至今五、转债表现：本期银行转债平均价格上涨0.48%0.60+1.26%+0.25%8.74%7.86%2026年02月20132.066.94%。表7：银行转债关键信息一览转债名称纯债溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)平价底价溢价率(%)最新转债价格(元)平价(元)底价(元)触发强赎正股涨幅()最新余额(亿元)已转股比例(%)剩余期限(年)最新转股价格(元)常银转债26.448.6316.39132.06121.56104.456.9459.990.012.595.89重银转债17.9320.88-2.45129.92107.47110.1720.96129.990.012.109.50兴业转债15.2538.60-16.85124.2289.63107.7945.05413.5217.301.8720.63上银转债16.1810.125.50128.11116.34110.2711.75199.780.110.958.57青农转债1.0138.22-26.92108.1678.25107.0866.1350.000.010.534.00紫银转债0.5942.76-29.54109.8576.94109.2168.9545.000.010.443.60表8（周）2026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初以来上银转债1.26%0.72%-2.52%1.41%-0.45%0.47%0.44%0.83%重银转债0.51%0.73%-0.83%1.38%0.58%0.26%0.23%2.64%兴业转债0.25%0.18%-0.27%0.59%0.18%1.94%-1.27%2.89%青农转债0.16%-0.08%-0.19%0.16%-0.18%0.47%-0.23%0.32%常银转债0.04%0.50%-1.19%2.13%0.02%0.39%-0.12%1.88%紫银转债-0.02%-0.07%-0.07%0.00%0.00%0.27%-0.08%0.12%表9（周）2026/2/132026/2/62026/1/302026/1/232026/1/162026/1/92026/1/2年初以来常银转债8.95%11.72%11.79%9.64%8.56%7.09%3.35%57.74%紫银转债8.74%11.92%10.97%8.94%9.76%11.59%5.49%61.93%青农转债7.86%13.44%12.50%11.98%10.62%14.46%7.31%70.85%重银转债6.75%8.96%7.64%8.24%8.69%8.03%2.88%48.30%上银转债5.91%9.61%8.99%6.46%10.28%8.36%3.89%49.61%兴业转债3.75%6.66%7.95%5.76%6.26%5.75%3.10%36.12%图15：银行转债绝对收与相对收益（元） 图16：银行转债、银行块、可转债指数累收益率0.300.250.200.150.100.050.00

银行转债加权平均价格/中证可转换债券指数银行转债加权平均价格(右轴)

银行转债加权平均价格中证银行指数图17：银行转债债性股性一览（截至2026年2月20日）常银转债重银转债常银转债重银转债上银转债兴业转债青农转债紫银转债2520纯债溢价率(%)纯债溢价率(%)10500 5

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25 转股溢价率(%)

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45 50图18：银行转债价位估值一览（截至2026年2月20日）45紫银转债40青农转债35

兴业转债转股溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)25重银转债201510 5

常银转债090

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135最新转债价格(元)六、盈利预测跟踪：25年利润增速一致预期基本不变本期共3家银行25年业绩增速一致预期有变化（华夏银行、常熟银行、江阴银行）。本期A股银行25年净利润增速、营业收入增速一致预期环比上期分别变动0.00pct、0.00pct。25年净利润一致预期方面，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别变动0.00pct0.00pct0.00pct-0.02pct250.00pct0.00pct、0.00pct、-0.03pct。较最新财报披环比上期净利润 评级机 最新财报披露露前变动 变动 2026/2/13 2026/2/6 2026/1/30 2026/1/23 2026/1/16 2025E 构家数 同比（PCT较最新财报披环比上期净利润 评级机 最新财报披露露前变动 变动 2026/2/13 2026/2/6 2026/1/30 2026/1/23 2026/1/16 2025E 构家数 同比（PCT） （PCT）工商银行160.520.000.52%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%建设银行150.260.000.52%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%农业银行15-0.020.003.28%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%中国银行175.720.001.12%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.66%邮储银行22-0.050.001.07%0.62%0.62%0.62%0.62%0.62%0.62%交通银行9-0.350.002.16%0.32%0.32%0.32%0.32%0.32%0.32%招商银行260.44%0.08%0.08%0.22%兴业银行200.59%-0.43%-0.43%浦发银行139.76%6.57%民生银行5-3.410.00-7.09%-4.21%-4.21%-4.21%-4.21%-4.21%-0.11%光大银行13-0.510.00-3.40%-4.19%-4.19%-4.19%-4.19%-4.19%-4.19%平安银行21-0.530.00-3.50%-4.22%-4.22%-4.22%-4.22%-4.22%-4.22%华夏银行4-2.31%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%浙商银行83.150.00-8.76%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%北京银行14-1.950.000.21%0.27%0.27%0.27%0.27%0.27%0.27%江苏银行204.330.008.87%6.73%6.73%6.73%6.73%6.73%6.73%宁波银行278.70%6.97%6.97%南京银行188.16%6.43%6.43%杭州银行2314.53%14.24%14.24%14.40%成都银行24-1.360.005.02%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%长沙银行100.680.004.52%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%重庆银行1610.880.0010.42%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%贵阳银行1-1.78%郑州银行00.48%青岛银行1215.86%15.74%15.74%15.74%苏州银行164.880.007.43%6.39%6.39%6.39%6.39%6.39%6.39%齐鲁银行1016.14%15.86%15.86%15.62%15.62%兰州银行00.63%西安银行05.32%渝农商行181.930.003.32%4.64%4.64%4.64%4.64%4.64%4.64%沪农商行152.660.000.93%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%青农商行03.92%常熟银行257.520.0811.64%12.61%12.52%12.38%12.38%12.38%12.38%紫金银行10.00-10.90%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%无锡银行41.350.003.71%4.36%4.36%4.36%4.36%4.36%4.36%张家港行4-0.050.005.71%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%苏农银行65.05%4.84%4.84%江阴银行5-0.