摩根士丹利-全球主题研究：重新审视我们的十大预测-Global Thematic Research：Revisiting Our 10 Predictions-20260407

Morganstanley

April10,202604:01AMGMT

GlobalThematicResearch:RevisitingOur10Predictions

April7,2026

StephenByrd–GlobalHeadofThematicandSustainabilityResearch|EquityStrategistMichelleWeaver–HeadofUSThematicResearch|EquityStrategist

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLC

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Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

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WhatWeWillCoverinThisPresentation

ExecutiveSummary

RevisitingOur10ThematicPredictionsfor2026

WaystoPlayOurThematicPredictions

KeyAnalyticalToolsHelpfultoThematicInvesting

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ExecutiveSummary

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RevisitingOur10ThematicPredictionsALotCanHappenin3Months

•Catalysts:Irandynamics,LLMreleases,globalenergypolicy,AIinfrastructuregrowth,computedemandgrowth,AIand MultipolarWorldintersections.

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Sincepublishingour10ThematicpredictionsinJanuary,wehaveseenmanydevelopmentsthathavedriventhesepredictionstobecomekeymarketdrivers

•4predictionsarecloselyintertwined,andarelikelytocontinuetodrivealphaandinvestordebatein2026andbeyond:non-linearLLMimprovement,rapidgrowthincomputedemand,AItechtransfer,andAIdisruption/deflation/labor

impacts

•OurThematiccategorieshaveperformedwell:In2025/YTD2026,ourcategorieswereup38%/7%onaverage,outperformingtheS&P500by27%/12%

•Thebiggeststoryistheshortageofcompute,whichwillinourviewbeexacerbatedbyupcomingUSLLMreleases

showingastepchangeincreaseincapabilities–wearefocusedonthe“computebottlenecks”whichincludelabor,gridaccess,memory,backupgenerationandotherkeydatacentercomponentssuchasconduit

•OtherThematiccategorieswefavor:Defense,Healthcare,AIAdopterswithpricingpower,Humanoids

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OverviewofOurCategoriesofStocksWithinEachTheme

AI&TechDiffusion

•Webelieve2025willbetheyearoftheAIAdopter:

companiesthatcan

leverageAItoimproveresults

•Ourin-depthanalysisofAIusecasesshowshighROIforthecapexspentbyAIEnablerstodrivethe

Adoptionusecases

•ThishighROIonAIcapexinturndrives2categoriesofstocks:AIInfrastructure

(alloftheequipmentacrosstheAIvaluechainrequiredtodevelopanddeployAI

capabilities)andthe

Humanoid100(enhancingroboticswithAIcapabilities)

FutureofEnergy

•PoweringAIisakey

subsetofAIInfrastructure,andisakeybottlenecktoAIdeployment

•MultipleDecarbonization

categories(Nuclear

Renaissance,Europe’s

LowDecarbDiet,Clean

Energy&StoragePlayers,CarbonasaCommodity)aredrivenbypower

demandgrowth,technologyimprovementsand

customer+governmentfocusonreducingcarbonemissions

•Multiplecategories

(GlobalizationofNaturalGas,EnergySecurity)

haveadirectlinkagetoourMultipolarWorldTheme

SocietalShifts

•FutureofFood&

BeveragesandDiabesityEcosystemaredrivenbyinnovationthatimpacts

whatweconsumedaily

•JapanLongevity

representsa“postcardfromthefuture”intermsof

impactsfromanagingpopulation

•Leveragingtechnologyforbetterhealthoutcomes

drivesAI+HealthCareandSmartChemo

•PreparingforanAging

Populationisdrivenbytheevolvingfinancialneedsinan“AgeofAgeing”

•AI-DrivenJob

DisplacementandRe-

Skillingaddressesarangeofemploymentimpacts

MultipolarWorld

•TheRiseinDefense

Spendingisevident

globallyasgovernments

adjusttoamoreuncertain

securityenvironment;we

seesignificanttechnologicalinnovationinDefense

•China’sdominanceinkeymetals&mineralsisa

potentialsupplychain

vulnerability;ourCritical

Mineralscategoryincludescompaniespositionedto

benefitfromsupplychaindiversification

•OurTechLocalizationcategoryincludesstocksthatwouldbenefitfromlimitedavailabilityof

WesternAIequipmentinChina

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PerformanceofOurThematicCategoriesYTDin2026

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•Thematicinvestingisapowerfuldriverof

alpha.In2025,our

Thematicstock

categoriesonaveragewereup38%,

outperformingMSCIWorldandtheS&P

500by16%and27%,respectively

•YTD2026,our

Thematicstock

categoriesareup7%onaverage,

significantly

outperformingS&P

500andMSCIWorld

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KeyRecentEventsImpactingOur10ThematicPredictions

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1."Twoworlds"ofLLMprogressandAIadoption:METRanalysisshowingsurprisinglystrongnon-linearityoftaskduration;reportsofupcomingUSLLMswithstepchangeincreasesincapabilities;frontierLLMsactingaspartnersinsolvingopenproblemsinphysics;NYTimesdatashowing54%preferenceforAI-generatedarticles

2.Computedemandexceedssupply:~250%increaseinweeklytokenusagefromJanuary2026toMarch2026;theOpenClawphenomenon;signsofLLMusershittingtokenlimits

3.ArobustUSpolicyagenda:Iranconflictunderscoresourmilitarytechprediction;upcomingUSelectionwillfeaturepowerandenergypriceaffordability(driventhemovetooff-griddatacenters);riskofUAEdatacenterattack

underscoresimportanceofsecurityofcriticalcomputeresources

4.AItechtransfer,coupledwithpushfornationalself-sufficiencyandgreater"grossdomesticintelligence":Ifprediction#1materializesinApril-June,webelievethispredictionwilllikelyfollow

5.Thepoliticsofenergy:Manydatapointssuggestingabacklashagainstdatacentergrowthinmanypartsoftheworld(Hawley-Blumenthalbillisnotable);wemayseesignificantgovernmentsupportgloballyforenergysecurity

6.GreaterconvergenceofAI+energy:MetafundingofTerrapower;MetafundingofLouisianapowerinfrastructure;

wehavenotyetseenawaveofmajorstepsbyAIplayerstogaingreatercontrolofenergyinfrastructure

7.Chinagrowstechnologymanufacturingmarketshare,whiletheUSexperiencesa“Re-shoringRenaissance“:

upcomingUS-Chinasummit;Section232USgovernmentactiononchipexports;rapidroboticsadvancesledbyChina

8.InLatinAmerica,atrifectaofchange:LatinAmericaincreasinglyappeals,givenits“physicalabundance”

9.Re-skillinginitiatives+AIjoblosspolicyintervention:Thishasjustbegun;politicalawarenessgrowsrapidly

10."TransformativeAI"drivesdeflation,highercapex,changesinassetvaluations,andnationalcompetitiveness:significantinvestorinterestintherisingvalueforassetsthatcannotbe"replicated"byAI

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TheIntersectionsBetweenOurThemes:UnderExploredAlphaPotential

MultipolarWorld

AI&TechDiffusionFutureofEnergy

SocietalShifts

(1)Strategicnational

importanceofAIleadership

(2)AItechnologytransferrestrictions:howeffective?

(3)Can"nationalAI

champions"develop

competitiveAIadvantages

withinoneormoreverticals?

(4)Strategicassets:energy,compute,robotics,drones,frontiermodeldevelopment

(5)AIandtheFutureofWarfare

(1)AI-drivenemploymentimpacts:impactonratioofworkerstoretirees

(2)Challengingdemographicsacrossmanygeographies

(3)Potentialforincreasing

disparitiesamongnationswithrespecttoAILifeSciences

technology

(4)Policyresponses:medicalinsurancesubsidies,minimumbasicold-agebenefits

(1)Nationalenergysecurityasastrategicpriority

(2)Industrialcompetitiveness:low,stableenergycosts

(3)Supplychainchallengesconstrainingenergy

infrastructuregrowth

(4)CriticalmaterialsandChina’sdominantposition

(5)EnergyasastrategicassettofuelthegrowthofAI

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TheYearof“ThematicBottlenecks”

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Alphagenerationpotentialfromaddressingarangeofbottlenecksin2026relatingtoourKeyThemes

FutureofEnergybottlenecks

•BasedonourPoweringAIdeepdive,weprojectUSdatacenterdeveloperswillfacea10-20%powershortfall

•ThepowerbottleneckfacingAI:Off-gridsolutionssuchasBEandSEI;Bitcoin-to-DCconversionopportunities

•Otherbottlenecksimpactingenergy/powergrowth:shortagesinlabor,transformers,backuppowergeneration

MultipolarWorldbottlenecks

•Shortageofdomesticrareearths,criticalminerals,metalsanduranium–ourCriticalMineralsThematicstockcategorywasthetopperformerin2025(up>100%)

•Lackofdroneandroboticsmanufacturingcapability,withespeciallyacutechallengeswithrespecttodomesticsupplyofkeycomponentssuchasmotorsandactuators–webelievethiswilldrivesignificantUSgovernmentpolicyaction

AI/TechDiffusionbottlenecks

•Ouranalysisshowsasystematicshortageincomputerelativetodemand–beneficiariesincludenotjustchipmanufacturers,butmemoryandopticalnetworkingaswell

SocietalShiftsbottlenecks

•Thebottleneckshereareconceptuallydifferent–therightskillsinaworldofpowerfulAI,labormobility,demographicpressures(agingpopulations),andtheabilityofinstitutions(governments,educationsystems,employers)toadaptfastenoughtoAI-drivendisruption,whichultimatelylimitshowquicklyproductivitygainsandsocialbenefitsfromAIcandiffusethroughtheeconomy

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AI-DrivenDisruption:AssessingtheKeyArguments

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ArgumentsinFavorofDisruption

1.Non-linearrateofLLMimprovementimpliesmuchgreaterabilitytoperformeconomicactivityatextremelylowcost

2.LLMsaredisruptivetoexistinglargebusinessesbecausetheygivesmallteamstheabilitytodevelopnovel,capableservices/productsatafractionofthecostandtime

3.AIdramaticallydropsthecosttoperformawiderangeofknowledgework(andinthelongerterm,throughEmbodiedAI,awiderangeofphysicalwork)

4.TherapidimprovementinAIchipsresultsinarapiddropinthecostofAItoperformawiderangeoftasks

5.AsLLMsbecomemorepowerful,theyarealsobecoming

morecreative(ascanbeseeninarecentOpenAIpaperco-authoredwithseveralleadingPhysicsprofessors)

6.AdvancesinAgenticAIcouldresultineconomicactivityoccurringoutsideoftraditionalcommercialchannels

CounterargumentsAgainsttheAIDisruptionThesis

1.AIAdoptersareshowingrealbenefitstothebottomline

2.EstablishedcompaniesoftenhavesuperiorresourcesthatallowthemtobetterleverageAIcapabilities,includingsubjectmatterexpertiseandproprietarydata

3.Establishedcompanieshavestrongcustomerrelationshipsandadeepunderstandingofcustomerneeds

4.Incumbentsoftenhavesignificantbrandadvantagesand

extensivedistributions/salesnetworksthatarehardtoreplicate

5.Therearesignificant,non-obviousbarrierstoentrysuchas

complianceandgovernancerequirements,anda“trustbarrier”

6.AIwillinmanycases"augment"ratherthan"automate"employees

7.Manyproductsandservicesrequire100%accuracy,

explainabilityandabilitytoauditresults,whichmaypresentaseriouschallengeforLLMs

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AssessingAI“DisruptionMoats”

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Wefoundaquotefromashortessay,fromMichaelBlochatQuietCapital,tobehelpful(emphasisadded):

"InaworldwhereAIcanbuildanysoftware,replicateanyproduct,andautomateanyprocess,whatactuallymakesabusiness

defensible?MostoftheanswersIheararewrong.They'reallbetsonthesamething:thatintelligencedoesn'tget100xfaster,

better,andcheaper.Itwill.Soon.Defensibilityhasalwayscomefromtwothings.Thingsthatarehardtodoandthingsthatarehardtoget.AIismakingthefirstoneworthless.AIcompressesthetimeittakestodothings.Itdoesnotcompressthe

timeittakesforthingstohappen.ThatdistinctionisnowthesinglemostimportantfilterIapplywheninvesting.Fivethingspassit:

1.Compoundingproprietarydata.Notalldataqualifies.Astaticdatasetthatwasmerelyexpensivetocollectwilleventuallybesynthesizedorworkedaround.That'shardtodo,nothardtoget.Themoatislivingdata:proprietaryinformation

continuouslygeneratedthroughoperationsthatarethemselvesdefensible.

2.Networkeffects.Everyuserthatjoinsmakestheproductmorevaluableforeveryotheruser.Thecoldstartproblemmight

actuallygetharderasAImakesittrivialtobuildcompetitors,becausenowahundredwell-builtalternativesarefightingtobootstrapthesamenetwork.Whoeveralreadyhastheliquiditycompounds.

3.Regulatorypermission.Governmentsmoveatthespeedofpolitics,nottechnology...Abankchartertakesyears.FDAapprovaltakesyears.Andthesurfaceareaofregulationisexpanding,notshrinking,becauseasAIcapabilityincreasesthestakesgethigher.Willthespecificformschange?Almostcertainly.Willtheneedforhumanpermissiongoaway?Ican'tseehow.

4.Capitalatscale.Theonealmosteveryoneisunderweighting.TheendgameisphysicalWhenthebottleneckshiftsfrom

softwaretoatoms,theabilitytofinanceanddeploycapitalatmassivescalebecomesoneofthedefiningadvantagesoftheera.Andcapitalaccessisn'tjustmoney.It'sinstitutionaltrust,trackrecord,andrelationshipsthattakedecadestobuild.

5.Physicalinfrastructure.Factories,powerplants,batterynetworks,datacenters...Physicssetsafloorontimelinesthat

intelligencecan'tbreakthrough.Whoeverstartedbuildingfirsthasaleadthatgrowseverymonthacompetitorhasn'tbrokenground.”

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RevisitingOur10ThematicPredictions

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Prediction#1:“TwoWorlds”ofLLMProgressandAIAdoption

•WepredictthatAmericanfrontierLLMsachieveastep-changeincreaseincapabilitiesin1H26thatisnotmatched

withinthesametimeframebyChinesecompetitors;ChineseLLMdeveloperscontinuetoreducethecostofpracticalAIapplicationsthatsuitawiderangeofcustomerusecases

•Recentdatapoints:(A)theMETRanalysisshowingthatthebestLLMscanindependentlyperformtasksaslongas>15hours(thescalinglawswouldsuggestweshouldbeat~8hourscurrently),(B)theArtificialAnalysismetricsthatcontinuetoshowrapidprogressioninAIcapabilities,(C)astatementfromSamAltmanduringtherecentIndiaAI

ImpactSummit:"theworldisnotprepared.Wearegoingtohaveextremelycapablemodelssoon"(D)newsofanentrepreneurthatusedDNAsequencingandtheDeepMindAItoolAlphaFoldtodevelopacancervaccineforhisdog,(E)KevinRoose,theTechEditorattheNYTimes,postedthat54%ofreaderspreferredtheAIwritingover

humanwriting,(F)researchshowingthatfrontierLLMscansolveopenproblemsinphysics,and(G)reportsofanunreleasedLLMthatreportedlyrepresentsa"step-change"incapabilitiesinsoftwarecoding,academicreasoning,andcybersecurity.

•Investmentimplications:(A)ThemarketdebatesregardingAIdisruption/deflationwillspreadtomoresectors,buttherewillalsolikelybeamorenuancedassessmentofwhichbusinessmodelsfacemore/lessAIrisk.(B)Demandforcomputewillcontinuetogrowatarapidrate,drivenbyexpansionofAIusecasesandmuchgreatercomputeintensityofAgenticAIandEmbodiedAI

•Thematiccategoriesthatarewellpositioned:AIInfrastructure,PoweringAI,AI+HealthCare

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WeareBullishRegardingtheNon-LinearRateofAICapabilityImprovement

ExcerptsFromLeoAschenbrenner’s“SituationalAwareness”Essay

“AGIby2027isstrikinglyplausible.GPT-2toGPT-4tookusfrom~preschoolerto~smarthigh-schoolerabilitiesin4years…GPT-2toGPT-4

tookusfrom~preschoolerto~smarthigh-

schooler;frombarelybeingabletooutputafewcohesivesentencestoacinghigh-schoolexamsandbeingausefulcodingassistant.Thatwasaninsanejump.Ifthisistheintelligencegapwe’ll

coveroncemore,wherewillthattakeus?We

shouldnotbesurprisedifthattakesusvery,veryfar.Likely,itwilltakeustomodelsthatcan

outperformPhDsandthebestexpertsinafield….WhatImeanisanAIsystemthatcouldfullyautomatemyormyfriends’job,thatcouldfullydotheworkofanAIresearcherorengineer oncemodelscanautomateAIresearch

itself,that’senough—enoughtokickoff

intensefeedbackloops—andwecouldveryquicklymakefurtherprogress,theautomatedAIengineersthemselvessolvingalltheremainingbottleneckstofullyautomatingeverything.”

Source:LeopoldAschenbrenner,Introduction-SITUATIONALAWARENESS:TheDecadeAhead

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RecentRapidIncreasesinLLMTrainingPowerCapacity

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Source:EpochAI,FrontierDataCenters|EpochAI

EpochAIhasanexcellent

trackerofLLMtraining

facilitydevelopment—notetherapidincreases.Keepinmindthat,overtime,an

increaseinpowercapacityyieldsadisproportionatelylargerincreasein

computationalresources,becausetheexaFLOPsperwattincreasesasmore

powerfulchipgenerationsareinstalled

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OpenRouterDataonCodingLLMSplit(OpenvsProprietary)

Source:OpenRouter16

•Softwarecoding,whichisthe

dominanttokenuseramongallLLMusecases,isdominatedbyproprietary

(closed)models

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Prediction#2:ComputeDemandExceedsSupply

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•Wepredictdatain2026thatpointstoalikelysignificant,systematicshortageofcomputationalpowerrelativetoextraordinarilyrapidincreasesindemand

•Recentdatapoints:InadditiontotherecentOpenRouterdatashowingasignificantaccelerationintokenusage,wewouldflag(A)thedramaticincreaseinrateofadoptionofAgenticAItools,most

notablyOpenClaw,(B)a~250%increaseinweeklytokenusagegloballyfromearlyJanuarytolastweek(from6.4trilliontokensto22.7trilliontokens),accordingtoOpenRouter,and(C)signsofusagelimitsbeingimposedbyLLMprovidersinordertomanagetherapidgrowthontokendemand

•Investmentimplications:(A)Thiswouldbebullishforanycompanywiththepotentialtode-

bottleneckthedevelopmentofadditionalcomputevolumes(includingchipmanufacturingsupply

chain,memory,"timetopower,"laborneededfordatacenterconstruction,andkeydatacenter

equipmentsuchastransformers,energystorage,andbackupgeneration),bullishforthe"merchantsofcompute"(predominantlytheneoclouds).(B)TherecouldbeashifttowardEnterpriseAIuse

cases,attheexpenseofsomeConsumerusecases.

•Thematiccategoriesthatarewellpositioned:AIInfrastructure,PoweringAI,PowerGridGrowth

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TheComputeSupply-DemandMismatch

Source:EpochAI18

Whywebelievethe

demandforcomputeis

likelytosignificantlyexceedthesupply:

•Projectedcomputeneedsare~3xtheMSprojectedcomputeCAGRfor

NVIDIA

•Weeklytokenusagegrowthisaccelerating

•AverageAItask

complexityisincreasingatanon-linearrate

•AIadoptionisbroadening

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Prediction#3:RobustUSPolicyAgenda

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•Theunderlyingprincipleforthispredictionisthatofgreaternationalself-sufficiency,andthishasmanifestedinwayswedidnotpredict.WhilewepredictedthattheTrumpadministrationwouldtakemorerobustactionthanexpectedto

eliminatedependenceonothernationswithrespecttoarangeofcriticalmaterials,webelieveitisclearthatthisdynamicwill"goglobal"inasignificantway

•RecentDefensesectordevelopments:(1)TheIranconflicthasshowntheimportanceof"asymmetricwarfare,"(2)theIranconflictmayalsodrivemanynationstoincreasetheirDefensespending—seeourEuropeanDefense&

AerospaceanalystRossLaw'srecentnotehere,"(3)theincreasingusageofAIinwarfare;(4)theUS"dronegauntlet"fieldtesting,withresultsreleasedinwhichthetopperformerswere,inthisorder,theShrike10Fiberdrone(producedbySkycutter),Ukraine’sSkyfall,theNerosArcher,Napatree,ModalAI,Auterion,UkrainianDefenseDrones,Griffon

Aerospace,NokturnalAI,HaloAeronautics,AscentAerosystemsandFaragePrecision;(5)theUkrainian

militaryworkingwithmultipleMiddleEasternnationsondronedefenseinitiatives;and(6)questionsfromPresidentTrumponthefutureofNATO

•Investmentimplications:Oneofthebigdriversofalphainglobalmarketsfortheremainderof2026,andlikely2027andbeyond,isamajorpushamongmanynationstoeliminatedependenceonothernationsforthemostimportant

driversofnationaleconomichealthandprosperity,rangingfromenergytonationalsecuritytotechnological

competitiveness.Globally,wecontinuetoexpectanincreaseinmilitaryspending,withalargeincreaseinmilitarytechsuchasdrones/counter-dronedefense,3Dprinting,electronicwarfare,cyber,directedenergyandspace

•Thematiccategoriesthatarewellpositioned:Defense,CriticalMinerals,NuclearRenaissance,CleanEnergy+Storage,Europe'sLowDecarbDiet,EnergySecurity,GlobalizationofNaturalGas.

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CriticalMinerals:SupplyAndGovernmentPolicyReaction

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Source:MorganStanleyResearch,

E

Recentcriticalmineralsdevelopments:

(1)"PaxSilica"fundingcommitments,whichcouldultimatelytotalinthetrillionsofdollars,aswellasseveraladditionalcountriesjoiningthisinitiative

(2)AvarietyofEUinitiativestosecureaccesstocriticalminerals

(3)TheUSgovernment"ProjectVault"initiative,withagoaltostockpileanymineralsthattheUSGSdesignatesas"critical"(thelistofsuchmineralscanbefoundhere)

TotheextentthatAIcapabilitiesincreaserapidlyin2026,especiallyifthisdegreeofincreaseisunevenamong

nations,webelievemanynationswillconsidertheir

envelopesofvulnerabilitytoothernationsshouldtensionsriseduetoheightenedAIcompetition

AUSDepartmentofEnergyreporthighlightsthematerialsthatcouldbesubjecttogreaterUSsupportinfurtheranceofthegoalofdevelopingUSproductionpotential,andthefollowinggraphicishelpfultobetterunderstandthewiderangeofmaterials

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TheEvolutionofWarfare:RecentStatementsbyUSOfficials

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•WarDepartmentAIAccelerationblueprint:“WemustinternalizethatMilitaryAIisgoingtobearacefortheforeseeablefuture,andthereforespeedwins…robustcompetitionbysmallteams,withtransparentmetricsforresults,istheengineofcommercialAIleadership.”

•DoWSecretaryHegseth,Jan.12speech:“Weneedinnovationtocomefromanywhereandevolvewithspeedandpurpose…[DoWCTOEmilMichaelwillreporttohim]everyday,andfrankly,onwhetherweare[winning]orlosingthetechnologyandinnovationcompetition.”

•DoWCTOEmilMichael:“Thesesixcriticaltechnologyareasrepresenttheprioritiesthatwilldeliverthegreatestimpact,thefastestresultsandthemostdecisiveadvantageonthebattlefield.”The6technologyareasare:

1.AppliedAI(pervasiveuseacrossDoW)

2.Biomanufacturing(domesticmanufacturingofmilitarycomponentsbyharnessinglivingsystems)

3.ContestedLogisticsTechnologies(ensuringseamlesssupplychainsincontestedenvironments)

4.Quantumandbattlefieldinformationdominance

5.Scaledhypersonics(massproductionofhypersonicmissiles)

6.Scaleddirectedenergy(microwavesandlasers,primarilyforuseasanti-dronedefense)

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Prediction#4:AITechTransferand“GrossDomesticIntelligence”

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•InresponsetoPr