德银-美国半导体设备行业更新：2026年一季报展望境况还能更好吗？-1Q26 Preview：Does it get any better than this-20260409

DeutscheBankResearch

NorthAmerica

UnitedStates

TMT

SemicapEquipment

Industry

USSemicapEquipment

1Q26Preview:Doesitgetanybetterthanthis?

WithSemicapsharesalreadyup~50%YTDthisyear,investorsarenowincreasinglyaskingthequestion:“Doesitgetanybetterthanthis?”.BuysideexpectationsforWFEhavereachedextraordinarylevels(consensusnow~$170b+WFEin2027)andaretrackingwellaheadofguidancefromcompanies.ThisgrowthisunderpinnedbyahistoricoutlookforfabconstructioninthecomingyearsasnewDRAM/Foundryfabscomeonline(seeourdetailedfabtrackersforthesesegmentswithinournote).Forthisearningsseason,weseestrongfundamentalsforthegroupin1Qinto2Q,althoughtherealgrowthisn’texpectedtostartuntil2H26givenfabbuildouttiming.Wequestionhowmuchupsidetherecanbeinthenear-termgivenclean-roomconstraints,butbelievetheindustryisworkingtowardsacceleratingthesebuildplansasfastaspossible,stillleavingupsidepotential.Valuationsforthegroupnowstandanaverage+52%abovelong-termmediansonournumbers,creatinganadmittedlydifficultsetupintoearnings.Net-net,whilethebarishigh,webelievefundamentalmomentumwillremaininsemicaps’favorinthecomingquarters,helpingthesub-sectortocontinuetooutperformin2026.Ourfavoritenamesinthelarge-capgroupincludeBuy-ratedAMAT(forthosewhoaremorevaluationsensitive)andLRCX(forpositiveearningsrevisionpotential).InSMID-caps,wepreferBuy-ratedMKSI(high-betaWFE&backendexposure)andQ(balancedfront-andback-endmaterialsexposure).

RaisingWFEoutlooksfor2026and2027to+20%and+17%,respectively

WenowexpecttheWFEmarkettogrow+20%y/yin2026and+17%y/yin2027,upfromourpriorestimatesof+13%y/yand+14%y/y,respectively.OurrevisednumbersreflectafundamentallystrongerWFEenvironmentandstandclosertoupdatedcompanyWFEoutlooks(whichcallforWFEtogrow20%+in2026withfurthergrowthin2027).WesummarizeourkeythoughtsacrossthefourmajorWFEverticalsbelow:

nLeading-EdgeF/L:Ourupwardrevisionsinleading-edgeF/LprimarilystemfromourexpectationsofstructurallystrongerspendingatTSMC,whichmostrecentlyguidedits2026capitalexpendituresto$54b(atthemidpoint),implyingameaningful+30%y/ystep-upfrom2025levels.TSMCalsoindicateditexpectsitscapitalspendingtobe"significantlyhigher"overthenextthreeyearswiththeimplicationbeingthattotalCapExdollarsoverthenextthreeyears(DBe~$194b)wouldexceedthatofthepriorthree-yearperiod(~$101binexpendituresover2023-2025).Ourestimatesalsoassumeincrementalimprovementsintool-relatedspending

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Date

9April2026

IndustryUpdate

MelissaWeathers

ResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-2134

ApoorvaKumar

ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-9286

RossSeymore

ResearchAnalyst+1-415-617-3268

DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.

IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

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atINTCandSamsung(toolingspendingincreasingasamixofcapexatINTC;TaylorfabatSamsung).

nLagging-EdgeF/L:Onthelagging-edgefront,wearetakingalesscautiousstanceonspendingoutofChinaastheregionhasconsistentlydelivered~2

-3yearsofelevatedspending,despiteindustry-wideexpectationsofaslowdown.Ourhigher2026estimatesprimarilyreflectthisaswellasconstructivecommentaryoutofASMI(whichindicateditexpectsChinasalestoincreasein2026).Wealsoassumeamutedresumptionofspendingatthebroad-basedsemiconductorcompaniesfollowingrecentimprovementsincyclicalconditionsacrossbroad-basedend-markets.

nDRAM:Capexoutlooksfromthebigthreememoryvendorshavebeenparticularlybullishoverthelastthreemonths,withallthreecompaniesindicatinghighercapitalinvestmentsintheout-year.WebelievethisshouldbodewellforDRAMWFEandextendbeyond2026asvendorshavemulti-yearroadmapstobringonadditionalproductioncapacity.Thatsaid,weexpectspendinginthenear-termmaybelimitedbycleanroomconstraintsuntilmoreshellsarebuilt.

nNAND:OurNANDWFEestimatesaredrivenbyourexpectationsofstrongupgrade-relatedspendingin2026(LRCXnotedthat2026wouldbegrowthyearforNANDonitsF2Q26call).Wecurrentlymodelgrowthtocontinuein2027,againbroughtonbysteadyupgradespending.

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WFEOutlook

WenowexpecttheWFEmarkettogrow+20%y/yin2026and+17%y/yin2027,withgrowthbeingprimarilydrivenbyleading-edgeF/LandDRAMinvestments.

Withthisnote,weareupdatingourWFEforecaststoaccountforthevarietyofpositivedevelopmentssinceour

2026Outlook

atthestartoftheyear.Inshort,weareraisingour2026WFEestimatefrom$116b(+13%y/y)to$132b(+20%y/y),withournewestimatestandinglargelyin-linewithcompanyWFEoutlooks,reflectingourconstructivestanceonmemoryandleading-edgeF/Linvestmentsincreasingfurther.WeexpectaggregateWFEgrowthtoslightlydecelerateto+17%y/ygrowthin2027(albeitstillupversusourpriorestimateof+14%y/y)oncontinuedstrengthinmemoryandleading-edgeF/Linvestments.For2027,weexpectcontinuedgrowthoffthehigherbase,withmomentumcontinuinginDRAM,Leading-EdgeLogic,andNAND(thoughweseetepidgrowthinLagging-EdgeF/L).

Figure1:WFEMarketForecast

WFESPENDING

(in$m,unlessotherwisenoted)

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

Foundry/Logic

58,000

63,452

71,113

82,766

97,237

109,901

y/ychange

18%

9%

12%

16%

17%

13%

%ofTotalWFE

61%

71%

73%

75%

74%

71%

LeadingEdge

34,800

30,972

34,689

42,320

55,016

68,770

y/ychange

--

-11%

+12%

+22%

+30%

+25%

%ofTotalF/L

60%

49%

49%

51%

57%

63%

%ofTotalWFE

37%

34%

36%

38%

42%

45%

LaggingEdge

23,200

32,480

36,424

40,446

42,221

41,131

y/ychange

--

+40%

+12%

+11%

+4%

-3%

%ofTotalF/L

40%

51%

51%

49%

43%

37%

%ofTotalWFE

24%

36%

37%

37%

32%

27%

Memory

36,917

26,500

26,225

27,312

34,593

44,007

y/ychange

+3%

-28%

-1%

+4%

+27%

+27%

%ofTotalWFE

39%

29%

27%

25%

26%

29%

DRAM

16,917

18,500

19,225

17,978

23,160

30,298

y/ychange

-0%

+9%

+4%

-6%

+29%

+31%

%ofMemory

46%

70%

73%

66%

67%

69%

%ofTotalWFE

18%

21%

20%

16%

18%

20%

NAND

20,000

8,000

7,000

9,333

11,433

13,708

y/ychange

+5%

-60%

-13%

+33%

+23%

+20%

%ofMemory

54%

30%

27%

34%

33%

31%

%ofTotalWFE

21%

9%

7%

8%

9%

9%

TotalWFE

94,917

89,952

97,337

110,078

131,830

153,908

y/ychange

+12%

-5%

+8%

+13%

+20%

+17%

Source:DeutscheBankEstimates

Notes:WFE=WaferFabricationEquipment;DetailedWFEmarketmodelavailableuponrequest

CompanyOutlooksfor2026WFE:

LRCX

guiding+23%y/ygrowth;

Tokyo

Electron

guiding>15%y/ygrowth;

AMAT

guidingitsSemiSystemssegmenttogrow>20%y/ygrowth

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Leading-EdgeF/L:ExpectingrobustgrowthatTSMCwithincrementalimprovementsatINTC/Samsung

Wenowmodelleading-edgeWFEspendinggrowthtobe+30%y/yin2026and+25%y/yin2027,upfromourpriorestimatesof+22%y/yin2026and+15%in2027.OurupwardrevisionsareprimarilyafunctionofstructurallystrongerspendingatTSMC,whichmostrecentlyguidedits2026capitalexpendituresto$54b(atthemidpoint),implyingameaningful+30%y/ystep-upfrom2025levels.Overthelonger-term,TSMCindicateditexpectsitscapitalspendingtobe"significantlyhigher"overthenextthreeyearswiththeimplicationbeingthattotalCapExdollarsoverthenextthreeyears(DBe~$194b)wouldexceedthatofthepriorthreeyearperiod(~$101binexpendituresover2023-2025).Ourhigherleading-edgeF/Lgrowthestimatesalsoassumesincrementalimprovementsintool-relatedspendingatINTCandSamsung(TaylorfabscheduledtocommenceproductionbyEOY26+recent

localapprovals

pavingthewayforasecondplannedfabatTaylor).Forcontext,recallthatINTCindicatedthatthemixofitscapexspendingnextyearwouldskewmoreheavilytowardstooling(despiteaggregatecapexbeingflattodownontheyear).It'salsoworthmentioningthatINTChasrecentlyengagedinafewdealsthatsuggestconfidenceinthecompany'soutlookforfoundry(e.g.,

repurchasingApollo'sstakeintheIrelandJVfab

andjoiningElonMusk'sterafabproject).

Onaseparatebutrelatednote,wehavemappedoutallofTSMC'supcomingfront-andback-endfabricationfacilities,alongwiththecompany'sexistingfabs,tohelpinvestorspreciselyidentifythedriversoftheinflectioninTSMC'scapitalspendingplans.RefertothesubsequentDBFabTrackerportionofthisnotefordetails.

Figure2:YTDRevisionstoConsensusCY26CapExatTSMC/INTC/Samsung

YTDRevision(%)

TSMCIntelSamsung

20%

15%

+14%

10%

+7%

5%

+2%

0%

-5%

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,BloombergFinanceLP

Note:NotethatSamsungestimatesinthefigureaboveincludeF/Landmemorycapitalexpenditures

FormorecoloronTSMC,pleaserefertoourcoveringEuropeanTechnology

HardwareAnalyst,

RobSanders

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9April2026

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Lagging-EdgeF/L:PotentialforChinatoupsideagainin2026,withdigestionin2027

Onthelagging-edgefront,wenowmodelWFEspendingtogrow+4%y/yin2026,upfromourpriorforecastofa-3%y/ycontraction.TheupwardrevisioninourforecastsprimarilystemsfromalesscautiousstanceonspendingoutofChina(~70%oflagging-edgespendasperourestimates),wherewenowmodellagging-edgespendinggrowthof+5%y/yin2026andamoderationof-5%y/ythefollowingyearin2027(notethatourlagging-edgeestimatesfor2027remainlargelyunchanged).Thatbeingsaid,weflagthatthetimingandmagnitudeofadigestioninChinaremainsahighlycontestedandhighlyunpredictabletrendwithintheWFEmarket.Theregionhasconsistentlydelivered~2-3yearsofelevatedspending,despiteindustry-wideexpectationsofaslowdown.Ourhigher2026estimatesprimarilyreflecttheregion'stendencytosurprisetotheupsideaswellasconstructivecommentaryoutofASMI(whichindicateditexpectsChinasalestoincreasein2026).Ourmodelalsoassumesamutedresumptionofspendingbythebroad-basedsemiconductorcompaniesfollowingrecentimprovementsincyclicalconditionsacrossbroad-basedend-markets(seeourmostrecent

End-Market

Monitor

fordetails),whichnotablyalignswithrecentcommentaryatcompanieslikeASMI,whichguidedforamodestsalesimprovementintheirpowerandanalogsegmentsfor2026.

Figure3:CapitalSpendingatTopBroad-Based/AnalogCompanies

CapEx($m)

TexasInstrumentsInfineonSTMicroelectronicsAnalogDevicesONSemiNXP

18,000

16,223

15,000

12,704

12,000

11,559

9,717

8,931

9,181

9,000

7,614

6,000

5,222

4,605

3,949

3,000

0

2027

201820192020202120222023202420252026

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,BloombergFinanceLP

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DRAM:Expectingtightdemand-supplyconditionstodriveadditionalWFEspending

ConditionsintheDRAMmarkethaveremainedcontinuallytightoverthelast3months,withcompanycommentarysuggestingthatdemandwillcontinuetofaroutpacesupplyfortheforeseeablefuture.Thishaspromptedmanyofthememoryvendorstoguideforhighercapitalspendingin2026/2027astheyexpandcapacitytomeetstructurallyhigherdemandlevels.Webrieflysummarizecapitalspendingexpectationsbelow:

nMicron:MUindicatedthatFY26CapExwouldbe>$25bonitsmostrecentcallwithamajorityoftheincreasebeingtiedtocleanroomfacility-relatedinvestments.ThecompanyexpectsspendingtofurtherincreaseinFY27(tothetuneof>$10by/y).Weaccountforthesechangesinour

MUmodel,

butnotethatonacalendaryearbasis,weseeCapExgrowing+57%y/yin2026and+27%y/yin2027.

nSamsungElectronics:AlthoughSamsungdidnotoutlineaspecificCapExnumberonitslastearningscall,itdidnotethatitexpectsa"meaningful"increaseinitsmemoryCapExfor2026.WhileitisdifficulttoparseoutthemixofSamsung'sinvestments,wehighlightthatconsensusexpectationscurrentlyforecasttotalcompanyCapExtorise+30%y/yin2026and+10%in2027.

nSKHynix:MuchlikeSamsung,SKHynixalsodidnotprovideaspecificCapExnumberinitsmostrecentoutlook.However,thecompanyofferedthesamegeneralmessageasitspeers,citingthatits2026CapExisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasey/yduetocapacityexpansionsandinvestmentsinfutureinfrastructure.ThisseemstobefactoredintoStreetnumbersascurrentconsensusexpectationsforecast+44%y/yCapExgrowthin2026and+16%y/yCapExgrowthin2027

Allin,wethinkhighercapitalinvestmentsatthemajormemoryco'sshouldbodewellforDRAMWFEin2026and2027.Additionally,basedonourDRAMdemand-supplymath,webelievetightnessinmemorymarketscouldpersistthrough2027andinto2028astheindustrymovestowardsproductslikeHBM4/HBM4e,whichcarryhighertraderatios(refertoouroriginal

DRAMD-Snote

forourthoughtprocess).Weexpectthistosubsequentlydriveacceleratedconstruction/expansionofseveralfabsglobally(similartohowthe2025tightnessacceleratedtheconstructionofcertainKoreanfabsthisyear).Assuch,weareraisingour2026DRAMWFEforecastsfrom+22%y/yto+29%y/y,withaslightaccelerationto+31%y/yin2027(drivenbythetimingofupcomingfabramps;e.g.,ID1/TongluofabatMicron,M15X/YonginatSKHynix,P4expansionatSamsung,etc.).

*ContinuetothenextpageforasummarizedversionofourDRAMD-Smodel(fullmodelavailableuponrequest).

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Figure4:DRAMDemand-SupplyForecast(Summarized)

ForecastingRequiredDRAMWSPMNeededtoSupportDRAMBitGrowth

Forecast

20232024202520262027202820292030

25-30Growth

+201k

+2%

+537k

+20%

+7%

+11%

+1,285k

+25k+120k

+120k

+50k

+10k

+50k

+45k

+0k

+110k

+200k+55k+200k

+100k

+200k+0k+0k+0k

StandardDRAMWSPMRequirements('000s)

1,356

1,490

1,563

1,669

1,765

1,838

1,804

1,764

y/yStandardDRAMBitDemandGrowth(%)

+10%

+5%

+20%

+19%

+15%

+9%

+9%

(+)UpliftduetoHigherHBMTradeRatio

N/A

(-)ImpactfromBit/WaferEfficiencies

-8%

-8%

-6%

-6%

-6%

(-)ImpactfromYieldImprovements

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-5%

=Assumedy/yStandardDRAMWSPMGrowth(%)

+7%

+6%

+4%

-2%

-2%

asa%ofTotalDRAMWSPM

95%

85%

82%

78%

71%

62%

65%

67%

HBMWSPMRequirements('000s)

70

270

350

479

716

1,117

993

887

y/yHBMBitDemandGrowth(%)

+286%

+30%

+45%

+55%

+67%

-0%

+0%

(+)UpliftduetoHigherHBMTradeRatio

+5%

+8%

+3%

+3%

+3%

(-)ImpactfromBit/WaferEfficiencies

-8%

-8%

-6%

-6%

-6%

(-)ImpactfromYieldImprovements

-5%

-5%

-8%

-8%

-8%

=Assumedy/yHBMWSPMGrowth(%)

+37%

+49%

+56%

-11%

-11%

asa%ofTotalDRAMWSPM

5%

15%

18%

22%

29%

38%

35%

33%

TotalDRAMWSPMRequirements('000s)

1,426

1,760

1,913

2,149

2,480

2,955

2,797

2,651

EstimatedDRAMWSPMCapacity('000s)

1,913

2,028

2,288

2,556

2,893

3,198

Surplus/(Shortfall)

-121k

-192k

-399k

+96k

+547k

Demand/Supply(%)

106%

108%

116%

97%

83%

(1)TraditionalDRAMscaleslinearly;Intheory,1additionalwaferstartstranslatesto1additionalunitofnon-HBMDRAM

(2)DRAMcellshrinkageshouldyieldhigherbitdensity/waferovertime,especiallywithmajornodetransitions(1ﾅт1ﾆ)

(3)Improvedmanufacturingprocessesshouldyieldconsistentimprovementsforlesscomplexnon-HBMDRAM

(4)Growthinthetraderatio(from3:1т4:1andbeyond)impliesthatitwilltakemorewaferstoproduceanincrementalbitofHBM

(5)Advancesinfabricationshouldyieldhigherbitdensity/waferovertime,especiallywithmajornodetransitions(1ﾅт1ﾆ)

(6)ImprovementsinHBMmanufacturingshouldgraduallyimproveovertime,loweringtherateofgrowthrequiredinHBMWSPMs

(7)WebelieveHBMshouldaccountforagreaterportionoftotalDRAMWSPMovertheLT,drivenbygrowthintheHBMtrade

ratioandstructurallyhigherAI-relateddemand;Ourmodelestimatesthat~30%oftotalDRAMcapacitywillbeallocatedtowards

HBMoverthelong-term

IncrementalDRAMWSPMCapacity('000s):+115k+260k+268k+338k+305k

Big3MemoryVendors:

MicronHiroshimaExpansion

+13k+13k

MicronID1

+80k+40k

MicronID2

+20k+70k+30k

MicronNYFabComplex(Fab1)

+50k

MicronManassasExpansion(Fab6)

+10k

MicronPSMCFab

+20k+30k

MicronPSMCFab2(Expansion)

SamsungHwaseongConversion

+15k+30k

SamsungPyeongtaek(P4Expansion)

+70k+40k

SamsungPyeongtaek(P5)

+50k+75k+75k

SKHynixM15X

+35k+20k

SKHynixYonginFab1

+50k+50k+50k+50k

SKHynixYonginFab2

SKHynixIcheon(M16)

+50k+50k

ChineseVendors:

CXMTShanghaiFabExpansion

CXMTHefei(FabA1)

CXMTHefei(FabA2)

+50k+50k+50k+50k

CXMTBeijing(FabC1+C2)JHICCJinjiang

Locatedw/inMicron'scurrentHiroshimasite;ConstructiontobedoneEOY27,withshipmentsin~2028;DBe~25kWSPMID1HVMtostartin2027;DBeplannedcapacity~120kWSPM

ID2constructiontostartin2026,withoperationsbyEOY28;DBeplannedcapacity~120kWSPM4-FabComplex;Fab1tostartHVMin2030

MUindicateditwasmakinginvestmentstomodernizeandexpandthisfab;DBeexpansiontobe~10kWSPM

AcquiredfromPSMCin2026;MUPRindicatesfacilityhas~300ksq.ftofcleanroomspaceandnooutputuntil2H27;DBe50kWSPM(halfofoneofMU'sNYfabs)

~270ksq.ft.ofcleanroomspace(similarinsizetothefirstfab);ShipmentsstartinFY28andconstructionstartsEOYFY26(DBeexpects1-2yrbuildwithproductioninCY28)

Samsungreportedlyconvertinglegacyproductionlinesto1CDRAMbyEOY2025

RecentChosunDailyarticle(Feb-26)indicatedthattotalcapacitywouldbe100-120kWSPM(DBe~110kWSPM)

P5beginsHVMin2028;ReportedlyalargerfabwithmorecleanroomspacethanP4(DBe~200ktotalcapacity)

Constructioncompletein4Q25;SKwillrampin2026;Reportedlywilladd35kWSPM,withpotentialtofurtherexpandto55-60kPlannedcapacityof200k;FirstcleanroomtostartHVMin1Q27;Weexpectgradualrampupby2030

Plannedcapacityof200k;Noconstructionplanasofyet,butDBeassumespotentialrampstartingin2029

SKreportedlyexpandedproduction~190kin~2H25;FacilityoriginallystartedHVMin1Q21withplannedcapacityof~130k

Plannedcapacityisreportedly2-3xthatofHefeiFabs,whichhadcapacitiesof~100-150kindividuallybyEOY25;HVMin2027DBecapacitywas~100kbyEOY25

DBecapacitywas~100kbyEOY25

DBeAggregatecapacityof~100kWSPM

Plannedcapacityof~15k;HVMstartedin~2022post-EntityListdisruptions

Source:Gartner,DeutscheBankResearch

Note:Notethatthethetableaboveisabbreviated;Fullmodelavailableuponrequest

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%ofTotalWFESpend

61%39%

29%

27%

71%

73%

Figure6:WFESpendingMix(2022-2026E)

Foundry/LogicMemory

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,CompanyData

%ofFoundryCapEx

59%

Figure8:WFEasa%ofFoundry/IDMCapEx

WFEasa%ofCapEx5-yrAvg.

75%

56%55%

50%

25%

0%

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,SemiconductorIndustryAssociation,BloombergFinanceLP

NAND:Expectinggrowthin2026,withmoderationin2027

25%

26%

75%

74%

60%

56%

Aswe'veseenthroughout2025,thesurgeindemandforHBMhassignificantlyrestrictedthenumberofwafersandcapacityavailableforothertypesofmemory.ThishasledtoaseveretighteninginNANDsupply,especiallyforproductslikeeSSDs,whichhavebeeninhighdemandgiventheirapplicationsindatacenters.Ontopofthis,weseepositiveread-throughsfromcompanieslikeLRCX,whocontinuetoexpectstrongupgrade-relatedspendingtocontinueinto2026(LRCXnotedthat2026wouldbegrowthyearforNANDonitsF2Q26call).Thatsaid,wecontinuetohaveaconstructiveoutlookonNANDWFEandareraisingour2026NANDWFEgrowthforecastfrom+19%y/yto+23%y/y.Weexpectthisgrowthtomoderateto+19%y/yin2027(unchanged),aslightdecelerationingrowthbutstillsolid.

Figure5:WFESpendingbyVertical(2022-2026E)

WFESpending($b)

LeadingF/LLaggingF/LDRAMNAND

132

150

110

9

11

97

7

19

95

23

90

8

19

32

31

100

18

20

42

40

17

36

50

23

55

42

35

35

0

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,CompanyData

Figure7:WFEasa%ofSemiRevs

%ofIndustrySales

WFEasa%ofSemiRevs5-yrAvg.

20%

17%

17%

15%

14%

13%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,SemiconductorIndustryAssociation,BloombergFinanceLP

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DBFabTracker

TohelpinvestorspreciselyidentifythedriversbehindTSMC'scapitalspendingplans,we'vemappedoutallofthecompany'supcomingfront-endfabricationfacilities,alongwiththecompany'sexistingfabs.Refertothechartbelowforincrementaldetails.

Figure9:OverviewofTSMC'sFabs

Fab10(Shanghai)

-Production

-110-350nm

-Est.~100kWSPM

Fab16(Nanjing)

-Production

-12-16nm,22-28nm

-Est.~40kWSPM

Fab11(Washington)

-Production

-180-350nm

-Est.~39kWSPM

-3-5nm

-Currently~20-24kWPSM(aggregateest.capacity>100kWSPM)

Fab18(Tainan)

-Production

-3nm,4-5nm

-Est.~275kWSPM

Production

JapanFabsI+II(Kumamoto):

-Expansion

-12-40nm(FabI);3nm(FabII)

-Fab1(est.~50kWSPM);FabIIstarting2028(aggregatecapacityest.>100kWSPM)

Fab2A+B(Hsinchu)

-Production

-450nm

-Est.~86kWSPM

Fab24(Dresden):

-Underconstruction

-12-16nm,22-28nm

-Installationsin2H26;HVMin2027(est.~40kWSPM)

Fab3+4(Hsinchu)

-Production

-180-350nm

-Est.~108kWSPM

Fab5(Hsinchu)

-Production

-110-180nm

-Est.~36kWSPM

Fab8(Hsinchu)

-Production

-110-250nm

-Est.~79kWSPM

Fab20(Hsinchu):

-Expansion/ramping

-<2nmnodes

-20-25kWSPMcurrently(est.~120kWSPMbyYE26)

Fab12(Hsinchu)

-Production

-3nm

-Est.~150kWSPM

TataFab(Gujurat):

-Underconstruction

-28nmnodes

-Expectedtobeoperationalbylate2026(est.~50kWSPM)

Fab6(Tainan)

-Production

-110-180nm

-Est.~152kWSPM

SSMCJVFab(Singapore)

-Production;TSMC~38.8%share

-180-250nm

-Est.~68kWSPM

Expansion

Construction

-Permitting/underconstruction;

-2nmnodes

-HVMexpectedin2H28;(est.~50kWSPMatP1)

Source:DeutscheBankResearch,CompanyFiling,PressReleases

Notes:Ourfabdatabaseisnotexhaustiveandmayomitlesser-knownfabricationfacilities;OurdatasetisintendedtoprovideinvestorswithacomprehensiveoverviewofthemanufacturingbaseformajorIDMsandFoundries;Dataisupdatedonamonthlybasis

【价值目录】网整理：

Page10DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.

9April2026

SemicapEquipment

USSemicapEquipment

Foundry/IDMCapEx

Weregularlymonitorspendingtrendsacrossasetof30+semiconductormanufacturersasWFEtypicallyaccountsfor~50-60%ofannualfoundry/IDMCapEx.Basedonthemostrecentdata,foundry/IDMcapitalexpendituresareexpectedtorise+27%y/yin2026and+12%y/yin2027.Theseestimatesaredirectionallyin-linewithourWFEgrowthforecasts(+20%y/yin2026and+17%in2027),butdifferentonanabsolutebasis,thoughnotethatthedeltalikelystemsfromdifferencesinthemixofinvestments(i.e.,isspendinggearedtowardsphysicalinfrastructureorcleanroomtooling?).

Figure10:Foundry/IDMCapEx

CAPITALEXPENDITURES

(in$m,unlessotherwisenoted)

A

2018

A

2019

A

2020

A

2021

A

2022

A

2023

A

2024

A

2025

E

2026

E

2027

TSMC

10,474

14,904

17,387

30,089

36,339

30,476

29,762

40,940

54,188

65,026

SamsungElectronics

26,872

21,776

31,918

41,174

38,368

44,115

37,701

33,446

43,411

47,844

Intel

15