摩根士丹利-亚太大中华半导体：云半导体催化剂前瞻-Cloud Semis：Catalyst Preview-20260428

MorganstanleyRESEARCH

April28,202609:00PMGMT

GreaterChinaSemiconductors|AsiaPacific

CloudSemis:CatalystPreview

Whererelevantandmeaningful,wehaveidentifiedand

previewedcatalyststhatcouldaffectsharepricesinthenearfuture,forcloudsemisstocksinourcoverage.

IDEA

MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+DanielYen,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Daniel.Yen@

+88622730-2863

CharlieChan

EquityAnalyst

Charlie.Chan@

+88622730-1725

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+DaisyDai,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Daisy.Dai@

+8522848-7310

MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+TiffanyYeh

EquityAnalyst

Tiffany.Yeh@

+88627712-3032

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+EthanJia

ResearchAssociate

Ethan.Jia@

+8523963-2287

GREATERCHiNATEcHNoLoGySEmicoNDucToRs

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewAttracti∨e

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

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CatalystEventPreview

Company/Catalyst

Date

Importance

Surprise

AspeedTechnology

1Q26earningscall

5274.TWO

May2026

VeryHigh

In-line

Takeaways:

•BMCshipmentgrowthtiedtoAIserverdemand

•Rampofnext-genAST2600/AST2700

•Marginoutlookasproductmixshifts

GTCTaipei2026Jun2026HighModestupsidesurprise

Takeaways:

•NVIDIAAIserverroadmapandsystemarchitecturetrends

•ImplicationsforBMCcontentperrackandremoteservermanagementcomplexity

UShyperscalersearningscallApr2026VeryHighModestupsidesurprise

Takeaways:

•Cloudcapexguidance

•AIdemandoutlook

MontageTechnologyCoLtd688008.SS

GTCTaipei/Computex2026Jun2026HighModestupsidesurprise

Takeaways:

•AIserverplatformupdates(NVIDIA,OEMs)drivinghighermemorycontent

•ImplicationsforDDR5/DDR6iterations

2Q26earningscall3Q26VeryHighIn-line

Takeaways:

•DDR5penetrationandservermemorybuffer(RCD/DB)demand

•ChinaAIservermarketoutlookandPCIevolumeramp

•MRCD/MDBcustomeradoption

UShyperscalersearningscallApr2026VeryHighModestupsidesurprise

Takeaways:

•Cloudcapexguidance

•AIdemandoutlook

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

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ValuationMethodologyandRisks

WTMicroelectronicsCo.Ltd.(3036.TW)

Basecase,residualincomemodel.Weassumeacostofequityof12.6%(2%risk-freerate,11.8%riskpremium,0.9beta),amedium-termgrowthrateof10%,andalong-termgrowthrateof3%.

RiskstoUpside

nMargintrendsupevenamidlow-marginAIbusiness.

nGlobalsemiinventorydrops,reflectingstrongmobiledevicedemand.

nMarketshareexpands.

RiskstoDownside

nMargintrendsdowndramaticallyamidslower-than-expectedAI-semidevelopment

nGlobalsemiinventoryrises,reflectingpoormobile/PCdevicedemand.

nMarketsharelost.

WPGHoldings(3702.TW)

Basecase,residualincomemodel.Weassumeacostofequityof9.5%(1.5%risk-freerate,6%riskpremium,1.34beta),amedium-termgrowthrateof5.5%,andalong-termgrowthrateof2.0%.

RiskstoUpside

nMargintrendsupamidbetter-than-expectednon-AIbusiness.

nGlobalsemiinventorydrops,reflectingstrongmobiledevicedemand.

nMarketshareexpands.

RiskstoDownside

nMargintrendsdowndramaticallyamidslower-than-expectednon-3Cbusinessdevel-opmentandpressureonclientmargins.

nGlobalsemiinventoryrises,reflectingpoormobile/PCdevicedemand.

nMarketshareislost.

AspeedTechnology(5274.TWO)

Basecase,residualincomemodel.Keyassumptions:

nCostofequityof9.8%(2.0%risk-freerate,6%riskpremium,1.3beta)

nMedium-termgrowthrateof19.8%

nTerminalgrowthrateof5.2%

nCashpayoutratioof85%

RiskstoUpside

nStrongerclouddemand

nFaster-than-expectedspecmigration

nMildcompetition

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RiskstoDownside

nSofteningclouddemand

nSlower-than-expectedspecmigration

nIntensifiedcompetition

nFurtherpolicytighteninginChina

EgisTechnologyInc(6462.TWO)

Basecase,residualincomemodel.Weassumecostofequityof9.5%(beta1.25,risk-freerate2%andriskpremium6%),payoutratioof40%,intermediategrowthrateof14.8%,andter-minalgrowthrateof5%.

RiskstoUpside

nFaster-than-expectedrecoveryinthesmartphonemarketandfingerprintshipments

nHigher-than-expectedgrowthinIPservices

nWeakeningcompetitionfromChinesevendors

nStronger-than-expecteddemandcomingfromAIASIC

RiskstoDownside

nSlower-than-expectedrecoveryinthesmartphonemarketandfingerprintshipments

nLower-than-expectedgrowthinIPservices

nWeaker-than-expecteddemandcomingfromAIASIC

MontageTechnologyCoLtd(688008.SS)

Basecase,residualincomemodel.Keyassumptions:

n8.4%CoE(1.2beta,3.0%risk-freerate,and4.5%riskpremium)

n30%payoutratio

n19.3%medium-termgrowthrate

n4%terminalgrowthrate

Theseassumptionsarejustified,givencloudcapexgrowth,DRAMinterfacetechnologymigra-tion,andMontage'sstrongpositioninChina'sdatacentersemilocalization.

RiskstoUpside

nFaster-than-expectedphase-outofUSpeers

nFaster-than-expectedspecmigration

RiskstoDownside

nWeaker-than-expectedclouddemand

nSlower-than-expectedDRAMinterfacetechnologymigration

nDelayinnewproductlaunches

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

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DisclosureSection

TheinformationandopinionsinMorganStanleyResearchwerepreparedoraredisseminatedbyMorganStanleyAsiaLimited(whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontents)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.(Registrationnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)SecuritiesPteLtd(Registrationnumber200008434H),regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch),and/orMorganStanleyTaiwanLimitedand/orMorganStanley&CoInternationalplc,SeoulBranch,and/orMorganStanleyAustraliaLimited(A.B.N.67003734576,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.233742,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyWealthManagementAustraliaPtyLtd(A.B.N.19009145555,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.240813,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimitedhavingCorporateIdentificationNo(CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305,regulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)andholderoflicensesasaResearchAnalyst(SEBIRegistrationNo.INH000001105);StockBroker(SEBIStockBrokerRegistrationNo.INZ000244438),MerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNo.INM000011203),anddepositoryparticipantwithNationalSecuritiesDepositoryLimited(SEBIRegistrationNo.IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021)havingregisteredofficeatAltimus,Level39&40,PandurangBudhkarMarg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India;Telephoneno.+91-22-61181000;ComplianceOfficerDetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:+91-22-61181000orEmail:

tejarshi.hardas@

;Grievanceofficerdetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:+91-22-61181000orEmail:msic-compliance@whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch,andtheiraffiliates(collectively,"MorganStanley").MorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited(MSICPL)mayuseAItoolsinprovidingresearchservices.Allrecommendationscontainedhereinaremadebythedulyqualifiedresearchanalysts.

Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWebsite

at/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch

,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY,10036USA.

Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2495;HongKong+8522848-5999;LatinAmerica+1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+656834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.AlternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.

AnalystCertification

Thefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:CharlieChan;DaisyDai,CFA;TiffanyYeh;DanielYen,CFA.

.

GlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy

MorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,whichisavailable

at/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.A

Portugueseversionofthepolicycanbefound

at.br

ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies

AsofMarch31,2026,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:ACMResearchInc,AdvancedMicro-FabricationEquipmentInc,AdvancedWirelessSemiconductorCo,AlchipTechnologiesLtd,AllRingTechCo.,APMemoryTechnologyCorp,ASETechnologyHoldingCo.Ltd.,ASMPTLtd,GlobalUnichipCorp,HonPrecision,JCETGroupCoLtd,KingYuanElectronicsCoLtd,MacronixInternationalCoLtd,MontageTechnologyCoLtd,MPICorporation,NanyaTechnologyCorp.,NAURATechnologyGroupCoLtd,Novatek,PhisonElectronicsCorp,PowerchipSemiconductorManufacturingCo,RealtekSemiconductor,ShanghaiFudanMicroelectronics,SilergyCorp.,TSMC,UMC,VanguardInternationalSemiconductor,WINSemiconductorsCorp,WinbondElectronicsCorp,WPGHoldings,WTMicroelectronicsCo.Ltd..

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicoffering(or144Aoffering)ofsecuritiesofMontageTechnologyCoLtd.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromASMPTLtd,MontageTechnologyCoLtd.

Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAlchipTechnologiesLtd,APMemoryTechnologyCorp,ASETechnologyHoldingCo.Ltd.,ASMediaTechnologyInc,ASMPTLtd,EspressifSystems,GigaDeviceSemiconductorBeijingInc,GlobalWafersCoLtd,GudengPrecision,HimaxTechnologiesInc,IluvatarCoreXSemiconductorCo.,Ltd.,Innoscience,KingYuanElectronicsCoLtd,MacronixInternationalCoLtd,MediaTek,MontageTechnologyCoLtd,Novatek,PhisonElectronicsCorp,PowerchipSemiconductorManufacturingCo,RealtekSemiconductor,SilergyCorp.,SiliconMotion,TSMC,UMC,UniversalScientificInd.(Shanghai),VanguardInternationalSemiconductor,WinbondElectronicsCorp,WPGHoldings,WTMicroelectronicsCo.Ltd..

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforproductsandservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingservicesfromASETechnologyHoldingCo.Ltd.,KingYuanElectronicsCoLtd,MediaTek,NanyaTechnologyCorp.,Novatek,NuvotonTechnologyCorporation,RealtekSemiconductor,SiliconMotion,SMIC,TSMC,UMC,UniversalScientificInd.(Shanghai),WinbondElectronicsCorp,WTMicroelectronicsCo.Ltd..

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasprovidedorisprovidinginvestmentbankingservicesto,orhasaninvestmentbankingclientrelationshipwith,thefollowingcompany:AlchipTechnologiesLtd,APMemoryTechnologyCorp,ASETechnologyHoldingCo.Ltd.,ASMediaTechnologyInc,ASMPTLtd,EspressifSystems,GigaDeviceSemiconductorBeijingInc,GlobalWafersCoLtd,GudengPrecision,HimaxTechnologiesInc,IluvatarCoreXSemiconductorCo.,Ltd.,Innoscience,KingYuanElectronicsCoLtd,MacronixInternationalCoLtd,MediaTek,MontageTechnologyCoLtd,Novatek,PhisonElectronicsCorp,PowerchipSemiconductorManufacturingCo,RealtekSemiconductor,SilergyCorp.,SiliconMotion,TSMC,UMC,UniversalScientificInd.(Shanghai),VanguardInternationalSemiconductor,WinbondElectronicsCorp,WPGHoldings,WTMicroelectronicsCo.Ltd..

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhaseitherprovidedorisprovidingnon-investmentbanking,securities-relatedservicestoand/orinthepasthasenteredintoanagreementtoprovideservicesorhasaclientrelationshipwiththefollowingcompany:ASETechnologyHoldingCo.Ltd.,KingYuanElectronicsCoLtd,MediaTek,MontageTechnologyCoLtd,NanyaTechnologyCorp.,Novatek,NuvotonTechnologyCorporation,RealtekSemiconductor,SiliconMotion,SMIC,TSMC,UMC,UniversalScientificInd.(Shanghai),WinbondElectronicsCorp,WTMicroelectronicsCo.Ltd..

MorganStanley&Co.LLCmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofACMResearchInc,HimaxTechnologiesInc,SiliconMotion.

TheequityresearchanalystsorstrategistsprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationofMorganStanleyResearchhavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandoverallinvestmentbankingrevenues.EquityResearchanalysts'orstrategists'compensationisnotlinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapitalmarketstransactionsperformedbyMorganStanleyortheprofitabilityorrevenuesofparticulartradingdesks.

MorganStanleyanditsaffiliatesdobusinessthatrelatestocompanies/instrumentscoveredinMorganStanleyResearch,includingmarketmaking,providingliquidity,fundmanagement,commercialbanking,extensionofcredit,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleysellstoandbuysfromcustomersthesecurities/instrumentsofcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchonaprincipalbasis.MorganStanleymayhaveapositioninthedebtoftheCompanyorinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreport.MorganStanleytradesormaytrade

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asprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatarethesubjectofthedebtresearchreport.

Certaindisclosureslistedabovearealsoforcompliancewithapplicableregulationsinnon-USjurisdictions.

STOCKRATINGS

MorganStanleyusesarelativeratingsystemusingtermssuchasOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedorUnderweight(seedefinitionsbelow).MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,holdandsell.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearch.Inaddition,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadMorganStanleyResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.

GlobalStockRatingsDistribution

(asofMarch31,2026)

TheStockRatingsdescribedbelowapplytoMorganStanley'sFundamentalEquityResearchanddonotapplytoDebtResearchproducedbytheFirm.

Fordisclosurepurposesonly(inaccordancewithFINRArequirements),weincludethecategoryheadingsofBuy,Hold,andSellalongsideourratingsofOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweight.MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,hold,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Tosatisfyregulatoryrequirements,wecorrespondOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,withabuyrecommendation;wecorrespondEqual-weightandNot-RatedtoholdandUnderweighttosellrecommendations,respectively.

CoverageUniverse

InvestmentBankingClients(IBC)

OtherMaterialInvestmentServices

Clients(MISC)

StockRating

Count

%ofTotal

Count

%ofTotalIBC

%ofRating

Count

%ofTotalOther

Category

Category

MISC

Overweight/Buy

1534

42%

461

50%

30%

698

43%

Equal-weight/Hold

1573

43%

372

40%

24%

716

44%

Not-Rated/Hold

4

0%

1

0%

25%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

568

15%

89

10%

16%

209

13%

Total

3,679

923

1624

DataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyreceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.Duetoroundingoffofdecimals,thepercentagesprovidedinthe"%oftotal"columnmaynotadduptoexactly100percent.

AnalystStockRatings

Overweight(O).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Equal-weight(E).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Not-Rated(NR).Currentlytheanalystdoesnothaveadequateconvictionaboutthestock'stotalreturnrelativetotheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Underweight(U).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinMorganStanleyResearchis12to18months.

AnalystIndustryViews

Attractive(A):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

In-Line(I):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

Cautious(C):Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthswithcautionvs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachregionareasfollows:NorthAmerica-S&P500;LatinAmerica-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCILatinAmericaIndex;Europe-MSCIEurope;Japan-TOPIX;Asia-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorMSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

StockPrice,PriceTargetandRatingHistory(SeeRatingDefinitions)

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