汇丰-全球行业分析：能源供应中断的二阶影响-Energy disruption：second-order consequences-20260313

HSBCGicbanvestmentRearch13March2026

GlobalSectorAnalyst

Equities

Global

Energydisruption:second-orderconsequences

uProlongeddisruptionintheMiddleEastcouldleadtosecond-orderconsequencesnotyetpricedbythemarket

uWeaskourglobalsectorteams–whatcouldbethelonger-termrisks,whichstockscouldbemostorleastimpacted?

uDownstreamchemicalproduction,inflationarypressuresinsomepartsofConsumer&Industrials,andrelativestrengthofHealthcare,Telecomscouldsurprise

AstheMiddleEastconflictcontinues,thenext-ordereffectshavebeguntoform.Ourglobalequityteamslookacrosstheircoverage,identifyingkeyareastowatchandthestocksthatwouldbemostandleastimpactedbyaprolongedconflict.

Asoil&gaspriceshaverisensharply,investorscontinuetowonderaboutthe

consequencesofaprolongeddislocationinenergyprices,shut-induration,andtherestartcomplexityofoilproduction.Intankershipping,thereremainsunemployedcapacitydespiterecordhightankerfreightrates.Shut-insofoilproductioninMENAwouldalsoleadtoshut-insofdownstreamchemicalproduction,potentiallypushingupproductpricesandbenefittingex-MENAproducers.Forutilities,risingpower

priceswouldsupportapushtowardAsiapowersupplysufficiency,whichcouldbepositiveforrenewableenergyandnuclearoperators.

Inglobaltechplatforms,weseecloudandAI-relatedactivitiesmoreexposedto

energypricehikesoutsidetheUSandChina,thoughbroaderdatacentreexpansionandfinancingstrategiescouldbeinquestion.Forindustrials,heightenedinflationarypressuresforequipmentsupplierscouldshifttheeconomicsforgas-firedpower

generation,particularlyrelevantforAIdatacentres.Elevatedoilpriceswouldbe

headwindsfortechhardwareandsemis,consideringthesubstantialpower

consumptionrequiredtomanufacturechips.Wecontinuetobeconstructiveonthesoftwaresector,wherewearguethatenterprisespendingonAIisa“must-have”.

Forglobalfinancials,risingenergypricesincreasedownsideriskstoeconomic

growth;banksincountrieswithapositiveenergytradebalanceappearmostresilient.Ininsurance,specialtylinesofbusinessareatgreatestriskofseeinglosses.

Healthcare’sdefensivenesslooksattractive,andweseetelecomsasbroadly

resilientwithstickyspends.Whilerapidde-escalationcouldseeregionalrealestatemarketsbounce,wealsoexplorethescenarioofastagflationaryperiod.Inthe

consumerspace,weseeHPC,sportinggoods,andfoodmanufacturingasmostatriskandluxury,beauty,andChinaliquorP&Lsmostresilienttooilpricehikes.For

autos,webelievedirectdemandimpacttobelimited,thoughsustainedhighenergypriceswouldweighonconsumersentiment.

RajSinha*

Co-HeadofGlobalEquityResearch

HSBCBankMiddleEastLtd,UAEbranch

raj.sinha@

+97144236932

EliotCamplisson*

Co-HeadGIRAsia-Pacific&GlobalEquityResearch

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

eliot.camplisson@.hk

+85228221622

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

HSBCGlobalInvestmentSummit

14to16April2026

Findoutmore

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:HSBCBankMiddleEastLtd,UAEbranch

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

2

Contents

Sectorimpactsnapshots3

Energy9

Transport14

Autos15

Chemicals16

Consumer17

Financials19

Industrials21

Insurance23

LifeSciences&Healthcare25

RealEstate26

Technology&Software29

TechHardware&Semis30

TechPlatforms31

Telecoms33

Utilities&Renewables36

EMequities38

Disclosureappendix44

Disclaimer48

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

3

Sectorimpactsnapshots

uAstheMiddleEastconflictapproachesitssecondweek,thenext-ordereffectshavebeguntoform

uOurglobalequityteamslookacrosstheircoverage,identifyingkeyareastowatchastheconflictcontinues

uWelookacrosssectorstoidentifystocksthataremostandleastimpactedinaprolongedconflict

Sectorimpactsnapshots

Oil&Gas

Evenafterflowsfullynormalise,lowerglobalinventories,alingeringriskpremium,anddelayedupstreaminvestment(outsidetheUS)arelikelytokeeptheforwardcurvehigherthanpre-crisis.

Onefactorthatmaynotbeappreciatedbythemarketisthenon-linearrelationshipbetween

More

impacted

shut-indurationandrestartcomplexity.Afour-weekcurtailmentlikelyimpliesatimelineforfullrestorationmeasuredinmonthsratherthanweeks.

Chemicals

Intheeventofanear-termresolution,ourbasecaseofahighlyoversuppliedchemicalmarketholds,butanextendeddisruptionquicklyflipstheoversupplynarrativeintoanupcycle.

ThosemostimpactedinthesectorwouldbeallMiddleEasternchemicalcompanies,especiallythosewithproductionassetsthatneedtoaccesstheStraitofHormuztoreachthemarket.WepreferFertiglobe,Sasol,andBraskemwithinourcoverage.

Transport

Intankershipping,around35%ofglobalseaborneoiltradeand20%ofglobaloilsupplytransitstheStraitofHormuz(SOH).Forcontainers,only2%ofseabornecontainertradetransitstheSOH,butabout10%offleetcapacitycallsontheMiddleEastports.Weexpectnetworkdisruptions,port

congestionsandapotentialdelayinresumptionofRedSeasailingstodrivefreightrateshigher

whichcouldstrengthenshippinglines’positionsinupcomingannualcontractnegotiations.In2025,MiddleEasterncarriersaccountfor13%ofglobalairfreighttrafficand9%ofpassengertraffic.

Inthecontainersspace,Maerskhasupsiderisksfromelevatedspotfreightrates.WhileIndian

airlinesaremostatriskonhighMiddleEastexposureandunhedgedfuel,CathyPacificisamongbestpositionedvs.Asianpeers,withfuelhedgeandcargotailwinds.

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

4

TechnologyHardware

More

impacted

Elevatedoilandgaspricesaswellastransportdisruptionscouldbethebiggestheadwindsforthetechhardwareandsemiconductorsector.Semiconductorfabsrequirealotofpower

consumptiontomanufacturechips,andallmajorfoundriesstillrelyheavilyonthepublicenergy

grid.Giventheongoingsituation,limitedsupplyofLNGcouldraiseenergypricesandinthe

worstcase,impactmanufacturingaswell.CurrenteventsarealsodrivingashortageofHelium,whichisacriticalcomponentduringthewafermanufacturingprocess.Heliumshortagecould

driveuppricesaswellascreatepotentialproductionbottlenecks.

TSMCgetsmajorityofitspowersupplyfromthepublicgrid,whichisdependentonLNGforpower.Utilities&Renewables

InAsia,powerpricesmaygainstrengthbecauseoftightnessinfuelsupply,whichcouldindirectlybepositiveforrenewableenergyandnuclearoperatorswhoseoperatingcostsarelargelyfixed.We

mayseefurtherpolicypushesforpowersupplysufficiencyduetoconcernsinenergysecurity,

particularlyforemergingmarketslikeChinaandIndia,whichalreadyhaveaggressivecommitmentsforclimatereasons.Overthemediumterm,thebuild-outofrenewableenergy(e.g.solarandwind),energystorage,nuclearandgreenfuelsmayenjoymorestructuralopportunities.

Impactsvarysignificantlybygeography.WeseeUSutilitiesleastaffected,butinEurope,longerdisruptioncouldproducesomepositivesforcompaniessuchasEngieorCentrica.Our

analysisshows7%relativeoutperformanceforHongKongutilities(vsHSI)inthe60daysfollowinganymajorglobalincident;CKIisourpreferredpick.

TechnologyPlatforms

Weestimateutilitycosts–mostlyelectricity–areabout6%ofrevenue(7%ofoperatingcosts)foraGPU/AIfocusedCloudServicesProviders(CSP).Cloudprovidersusuallyhavecontractualrightstopassthroughhigherenergycosts.However,playersrentingcapacities,includinglargelanguagemodels(LLM)firmsandcorporatesmayhavetopayahigherprice.WeseecloudandAI-relatedactivitiesmoreexposedtoenergypricehikesoutsidetheUSandChina;though

broaderdatacentreexpansionandfinancingstrategiescouldbeinquestion.

WeseeAmazonasrelativelymoreexposedduetothecombinationofitsfootprintintheMENAregionanddisruptionrisksofe-commerceactivities.

Industrials

Highergaspricesriskdrivinghigherproductioncostsforheavyindustrialproducers,particularlyinregionsthatimportnaturalgasforpower(Europe,Asia).Mostcapitalgoodscompanieshavelimitedtheirexposuretohigherenergycostsbymovingtoalessenergyintenseassembly-typeproductionmodelwithanincreasedfocusonservices.

Though,risingnaturalgaspricesriskdrivingupthelevelisedcostofenergyforgas-firedpowergeneration.ThisisparticularlyrelevantforprovidersofgaspowerequipmentforAIdata

centres,giventhatnaturalgasisthepreferredfuelsourceforlargescaledatacentres.

Amongprovidersoflargegasturbinesforpowergeneration,wehighlightGEVernova,SiemensEnergy,Caterpillar,andWeichai.

Less

impacted

Financials

TheMiddleEastconflictisalteringoutlooksforinflationandinterestrates.Forbanks,higher

short-termratesaregenerallypositivefornetinterestmarginsinthemediumterm,buttherearefewplacestohideinbankstocksgloballyifsevereeconomicdownturnsorrecessionstake

hold.Thatsaid,therecouldbevaryingimpacts,withbanksincountrieswithnegativetrade

energybalancebeingmostnegativelyimpacted,whilethoseinenergyproducingcountriesliketheUS,Canada,andAustraliawouldbecomparativelybetteroff.

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

5

More

impacted

Amongtheleastimpactedstocks,super-regionalbanksintheUSlikePNCFinancialstandoutgivenitspositiveexposuretoahigherforlongerratesenvironment.

RealEstate

Globalrealestatepricesfellbyc30%+inthelaststagflationaryperiod,whilstde-escalationandarelativelyquickresolutioncouldresultinahockeystick-likebounceinlocalMiddleEastreal

estatemarkets.

Inthecaseofaprolongedconflict,UAEmasterdevelopersAldarandEMAARwouldbemostimpactedduetotheirrelianceonresidentialdevelopmentsalesanddevelopmentprofits.Botharelikelytobenegativelyimpactedbylowerpurchaserconfidence,andthereforedemand.

Consumer

Consumercompaniescouldhavesignificantlyvaryingimpactstoaprolongedconflict.Wesee

luxury,beauty,andChinaliquorP&Lsresilientinthefaceofoilpricehikes,butnotethatthefeel-goodfactormightaffectsalesifconflictdragson.Ontheotherhand,HPC,sportinggoods,and

foodmanufacturingcouldsuffermorefrominputcostpressures.WeseebroadlythatstocksleastaffectedincludeEuropeanluxurynames,beautyandChinaliquornames,whilegenerallythosemostaffectedwouldincludesportinggoodsandfood/HPC.

Forluxurycompanieswhogenerategrossmarginsinexcessof70%,suchasHermès,webelievethepressureofoiloroilderivativesasaproportionoftotalcostofsalesislikelytobequiteminimal.IntheHPCspace,Cloroxisexposedtocostsofpetrochemicalderivativesusedasinputsin

cleaningproductsandpackaging.ThisisalsothecaseforChurch&DwightCo(CHD).

Autos

Forautos,weseelimiteddirectdemandimpact,Toyotaismostexposed,butthec500kunitsitsellsannuallyintheregionrepresentarelativelymodest5%ofitsglobalvolumes.Intime,wewouldexpectsustainedhighenergypricestoweighonconsumersentiment.Consumer

confidenceisakeydriverofautosales,sotothedegreehigherenergypricesleadintohigherinflationandinterestrateexpectations,thiscoulddampenglobaldemand,thoughlikelytobegradual.Weseethesupplysideimpactlikelytobesecondaryashigherenergypricescouldleadtohigherprocessingcostsforsomecommodities.

Insurance

Whilemoredefensiveforthebroaderinsurancesegmentintheshortterm,specialtylinesof

businessareatgreatestriskofseeinglosses.Morebroadly,therecouldbeknock-oneffects

fromtheshiftineconomicbackdroporrisinginflation.Mostlikelyimpactswillcomethrough

fallingassetpricesfeedingthroughintolowermarktomarketlosses,andhigherinflationcouldhaveawiderimpactoninsurancegrowth–though,relativetoothersectors,isrelatively

immunegiventhatalargeportiontendstobemandatoryproductsbutincertaindevelopedcountriesitcanbeamoresignificantdriverforgrowth.

Less

impacted

WeseeTaiwaneseinsurersasleastimpactedandshouldbenefitfromhigherUSD,whichhasbeenameaningfulpressurepoint.NameslikeFubonFHCandCathayFHCcouldbenetbeneficiaries.

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

6

TechnologySoftware

Whenconsideringtheanticipatedlargeimpacttotheworld’sbusinessmodelsthatadoptanddeployAIwithintheiroperations,weseenear-termAIinvestmentsasa“musthave”in2026andbeyond,nomatterwhatshapethemacroriskenvironmentisin.Wealsosee2026asthestartingpointforthesaleanddeploymentofAgenticAI.

MicrosoftremainsatthecenteroftheAIrevolutionandiswell-positionedtocapturemuchoftheinfrastructureinvestmentssupportingthebuild-outofAI.

Healthcare

Inperiodsofheightenedgeopoliticaluncertainty,healthcare’sdefensivecharacteristicsare

increasinglyattractiveforcapitalallocation.OngoingfeedandenergyinflationcouldcontinuetochallengetoolsandMedTech,withdemandrecoveryintheseareasdependentoninterestratetrendsandemergingmarketsentiment.Indiscussionswithourcoveredcompanies,direct

exposuretotheregionappearsminimal.Biopharmaislikelytoremainthepreferredsegment.

OurpreferredpicksfromthesectorareAstraZenecaandJohnson&Johnson.

Telecoms

Wealsoseetelecomsasbroadlyresilientconsideringthatspendstendtobesticky,though

marginscouldbeadverselyimpactedifenergypricesremainhigherforlonger.Safetyof

Less

impacted

infrastructureismostimportantinaffectedareas,butgenerallyweshouldseeastrongrecoverywhenstabilityensues,thoughwewouldbemindfulofthesignificanceofpopulationstability,

especiallyconsideringthefocusontourismandexpatpopulations.

AMX,TMUS,TelefonicaBrazil,andOrangePolskaareleastaffectedBuy-ratedstocksinourcoverageduetohavingnoexposureintheMiddleEastregion.

Equities●.Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

7

Stocksmentionedinthisreport

Company

BBGticker

Rating

CCY

CP**

TP

Marketcap(USDbn)

ADTV(USDm)

HSBCanalyst

adidas

ADSGR

Buy

EUR

140.05

180.00

29.2

136.4

ErwanRambourg*

AIG

AIGUS

Buy

USD

77.97

90.00

41.8

379.7

VikramGandhi*,CFA

AirChina

753HK

Reduce

HKD

5.60

4.30

17.1

24.5

ParashJain*

AirChinaA

601111CH

Reduce

CNY

7.36

6.80

17.1

117.5

ParashJain*

AirtelAfrica

AAFLN

Hold

GBP

3.38

3.50

16.5

19.4

MadhvendraSingh*,CFA

AldarProperties

ALDARUH

Buy

AED

8.07

11.00

17.3

37.5

StephenBramley-Jackson*

AlibabaGroup

BABAUS

Buy

USD

136.29

193.00

325.1

1767.0

CharleneLiu*

Alphabet

GOOGLUS

Buy

USD

308.70

385.00

3474.4

10739.9

PaulRossington*

A

AMZNUS

Buy

USD

212.65

280.00

2282.8

10844.2

PaulRossington*

AmericaMovil

AMXBMM

Buy

MXN

20.96

25.00

72.7

69.6

MadhvendraSingh*,CFA

APMollerMaersk

MAERSKBDC

Buy

DKK

16385.00

17500.00

39.5

48.5

ParashJain*

ArmHoldingsPlc

ARMUS

Reduce

USD

120.10

90.00

127.4

698.0

FrankLee*

Asana

ASANUS

Reduce

USD

7.05

6.50

1.1

47.8

StephenBersey

AstraZeneca

AZNLN

Buy

GBP

144.84

170.50

301.0

265.1

RajeshKumar*

BancodelBajio

BBAJIOOMM

Buy

MXN

51.20

65.00

3.5

8.0

NehaAgarwala,CFA

Braskem

BRKM5BZ

Buy

BRL

12.04

16.00

1.7

9.0

SriharshaPappu*

BYDA

002594CH

Buy

CNY

99.22

123.00

96.6

583.9

YuqianDing*

BYDH

1211HK

Buy

HKD

98.15

139.00

96.6

305.0

YuqianDing*

CaterpillarInc

CATUS

Buy

USD

707.59

850.00

329.2

1947.0

HelenFang*

CathayFinancialHolding

2882TT

Hold

TWD

71.80

63.00

33.2

69.9

JeremyChen*

CathayPacific

293HK

Buy

HKD

13.17

16.00

11.3

17.4

ParashJain*

Centrica

CNALN

Hold

GBP

2.01

1.75

12.4

28.1

CharlesSwabey*

ChervonHoldings

2285HK

Hold

HKD

24.20

20.50

1.6

4.0

HelenFang*

ChinaEasternAirlines

670HK

Reduce

HKD

4.29

2.60

14.6

16.6

ParashJain*

ChinaEasternAirlinesA

600115CH

Hold

CNY

4.76

4.40

14.6

133.3

ParashJain*

ChinaReinsurance

1508HK

Hold

HKD

1.81

1.31

1.5

4.4

AllenChen*,CFA

ChinaResourcesLand

1109HK

Buy

HKD

30.64

39.00

27.9

72.8

MichelleKwok*

ChinaSouthernAirlines

1055HK

Reduce

HKD

4.83

3.30

15.3

17.7

ParashJain*

ChinaSouthernAirlinesA

600029CH

Reduce

CNY

6.36

5.10

15.3

93.0

ParashJain*

ChubbLtd

CBUS

Buy

USD

322.76

357.00

125.9

558.4

VikramGandhi*,CFA

Church&DwightCoInc

CHDUS

Hold

USD

99.67

102.00

23.6

218.7

DiegoSerrano*

CKInfrastructureHolding

1038HK

Buy

HKD

65.85

75.00

21.2

24.1

EvanLi*

CloroxCo

CLXUS

Hold

USD

112.15

129.00

13.6

258.3

DiegoSerrano*

CNOOC

883HK

Buy

HKD

28.06

32.00

177.0

370.1

EvanLi*

CNOOCA

600938CH

Buy

CNY

41.76

47.10

177.0

377.6

EvanLi*

DubaiIslamicBank

DIBUH

Hold

AED

7.54

7.70

14.9

15.6

AybekIslamov*,CFA

EmaarDevelopment

EMAARDEVUH

Buy

AED

14.60

19.30

15.9

18.1

StephenBramley-Jackson*

EmaarPropertiesPJSC

EMAARUH

Buy

AED

12.15

18.00

29.2

75.2

StephenBramley-Jackson*

ENGIE

ENGIFP

Hold

EUR

26.95

22.30

79.3

142.3

MeikeBecker*

Fanuc

6954JP

Hold

JPY

6269.00

6400.00

38.8

259.5

HelenFang*

FertiglobePlc

FERTIGLBUH

Buy

AED

2.81

3.30

6.4

4.8

SriharshaPappu*

FubonFinancialHolding

2881TT

Hold

TWD

89.20

91.00

39.4

57.6

JeremyChen*

GAIL

GAILIN

Buy

INR

147.95

225.00

10.6

23.0

PuneetGulati*,CFA

Garanti

GARANTI

Hold

TRY

139.30

160.00

13.3

120.7

CihanSaraoglu*,PhD

GEVernova

GEVUS

Hold

USD

847.65

740.00

228.5

2151.1

SeanMcLoughlin*

GlobalFoundriesInc

GFSUS

Hold

USD

44.09

45.93

24.5

188.9

FrankLee*

GreatStar

002444CH

Buy

CNY

34.22

43.00

5.9

64.1

AmyHu*(Reg.No.S1700520090001)

Hermes

RMSFP

Buy

EUR

1920.50

2350.00

234.5

146.3

Anne-LaureBismuth*

HersheyCo

HSYUS

Buy

USD

217.85

249.00

32.3

397.8

DiegoSerrano*

HyundaiMotor

005380KP

Buy

KRW

530000.00

620000.00

84.9

849.3

WillCho*

Iberdrola

IBESM

Buy

EUR

19.21

21.50

150.2

239.8

MeikeBecker*

IntelCorp

INTCUS

Hold

USD

47.98

50.00

239.7

4604.4

FrankLee*

Johnson&Johnson

JNJUS

Buy

USD

242.99

265.00

585.6

2005.7

MortenHerholdt*

Kepco

015760KP

Buy

KRW

47950.00

83000.00

21.0

152.3

YushinPark*

KweichowMoutai

600519CH

Buy

CNY

1400.00

1883.00

255.2

951.6

KathySong*(Reg.No.S1700517120001)

L'Oréal

ORFP

Buy

EUR

361.90

437.00

223.4

151.5

JeremyFialko*,CFA

Microsoft

MSFTUS

Buy

USD

404.88

588.00

3006.5

14616.7

StephenBersey

MondelezInternational

MDLZUS

Buy

USD

55.36

71.00

71.0

648.8

DiegoSerrano*

MonsterBeverage

MNSTUS

Buy

USD

77.52

98.00

75.8

491.4

CarlosLaboy

MTNGroup

MTNSJ

Buy

ZAR

186.60

270.00

20.8

56.9

MadhvendraSingh*,CFA

Netflix

NFLXUS

Buy

USD

94.89

106.00

400.6

4352.0

MohammedKhallouf*,CFA

NetLinkNBNTrust

NETLINKSP

Buy

SGD

0.96

1.02

3.0

4.0

RishabhDhancholia*

NexteraEnergy

NEEUS

Buy

USD

91.66

103.00

191.0

846.3

MeikeBecker*

OrangePolska

OPLPW

Buy

PLN

13.24

15.50

4.7

4.8

AliNaqvi*

PepsiCo

PEPUS

Hold

USD

160.15

175.00

218.9

1274.7

SorabhDaga*

PetroChina

857HK

Buy

HKD

10.50

11.50

314.2

168.6

EvanLi*

PetroChinaA

601857CH

Buy

CNY

12.13

14.40

314.2

445.5

EvanLi*

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

8

Stocksmentionedinthisreport

Company

BBGticker

Rating

CCY

CP**

TP

Marketcap(USDbn)

ADTV(USDm)

HSBCanalyst

PetronetLngLtd

PLNGIN

Hold

INR

289.75

330.00

4.7

11.5

PuneetGulati*,CFA

PingAnInsuranceGroup

2318HK

Buy

HKD

63.50

84.00

157.5

378.4

AllenChen*,CFA

PNCFinancialServices

PNCUS

Buy

USD

205.64

257.00

82.9

568.7

SaulMartinez

Renault

RNOFP

Buy

EUR

28.90

43.00

9.9

50.6

PushkarTendolkar*

Sanlam

SLMSJ

Hold

ZAR

95.40

110.00

12.3

23.9

FaizanLakhani*

SanyA

600031CH

Buy

CNY

22.25

26.40

29.7

220.3

AmyHu*(Reg.No.S1700520090001)

SanyH

6031HK

Buy

HKD

24.40

26.70

29.7

9.3

AmyHu*(Reg.No.

S1700520090001)

Sasol

SOLSJ

Buy

ZAR

162.45

220.00

6.4

32.6

SriharshaPappu*

SaudiNationalBank

SNBAB

Buy

SAR

40.40

53.00

64.6

54.4

AybekIslamov*,CFA

SaudiTelecomCompany

STCAB

Buy

SAR

42.36

55.00

56.4

31.4

MadhvendraSingh*,CFA

SiemensEnergyAG

ENRGR

Buy

EUR

154.60

180.00

154.0

388.9

SeanMcLoughlin*

SwireProperties

1972HK

Buy

HKD

24.76

30.20

18.2

12.7

RaymondLiu*,CFA

SynopsysInc

SNPSUS

Hold

USD

432.98

460.00

82.9

1011.4

FrankLee*

TataMotorsLtd

TMCVIN

Buy

INR

445.55

534.00

17.8

59.1

YogeshAggarwal*

TechtronicIndustries

669HK

Buy

HKD

117.80

142.00

27.5

86.6

HelenFang*

TelefonicaBrasil

VIVT3BZ

Buy

BRL

41.30

52.00

25.8

36.0

PhaniKanumuri

TencentHoldings

700HK

Buy

HKD

552.00

770.00

642.4

1862.0

CharleneLiu*

TheCoca-ColaCompany

KOUS

Buy

USD

77.63

84.00

333.9

1351.1

CarlosLaboy

T-MobileUS,Inc.

TMUSUS

Buy

USD

213.44

285.00

235.2

1238.1

AliNaqvi*

Toyota

7203JP

NR

JPY

3510.00

NA

349.0

555.3

NA

TravelersCompaniesInc

TRVUS

Hold

USD

299.40

291.00

41.8

473.6

VikramGandhi*,CFA

TSMC

2330TT

Buy

TWD

1940.00

2400.00

1587.2

2266.8

FrankLee*

VodacomGroup

VODSJ

Hold

ZAR

148.84

165.00

18.8

14.2

MadhvendraSingh*,CFA

VolkswagenOrd

VOWGR

Buy

EUR

93.25

132.00

53.7

7.2

MichaelTyndall*,CFA

VolkswagenPref

VOW3GR

Buy

EUR

91.72

132.00

53.7

104.5

MichaelTyndall*,CFA

WeichaiPowerA

000338CH

Buy

CNY

26.56

33.00

33.7

419.2

HelenFang*

WeichaiPowerH

2338HK

Buy

HKD

30.30

39.00

33.7

68.3

HelenFang*

XCMGConstrMachinery

000425CH

Buy

CNY

12.30

13.50

21.0

161.5

AmyHu*(Reg.No.S1700520090001)

YangzijiangShipbuilding

YZJSGDSP

Buy

SGD

4.07

5.00

12.7

55.4

ParashJain*

ZoomlionA

000157CH

Buy

CNY

9.80

12.40

12.1

112.1

HelenFang*

ZoomlionH

1157HK

Buy

HKD

9.77

12.00

12.1

13.3

HelenFang*

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

**Pricedasof11March2026.

Source:HSBCestimates,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates.FactSet,Bloomberg.

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13March2026

9

Energy

KimFustier*

SeniorGlobalOil&GasAnalyst

HSBCBankplc

kim.fustier@

+442033592136

SadnanAli*,CFA

GlobalOil&GasAnalyst

HSBCBankplc

sadnan.ali@

+442079910569

IldarKhaziev*,CFA

SeniorEMOil&GasandUtilitiesAnalyst

HSBCBankplc

ildar.khaziev@

+442079923302

EvanLi*

Head,AsiaEnergyTransitionResearch

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

evan.m.h.li@.hk

+85229966619

CharlesSwabey*

GlobalUtilities&RenewablesAnalyst

HSBCBankplc

charles.swabey@

+442032683954

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

uHSBC’sBrentpriceforecastisUSD80/bfor2026andUSD70/bthereafter,aftereffectiveclosureofStraitofHormuz

uEvenwithade-escalationintheconflict,thebiggestphysicaldisruptionintheoilmarket'shistorywillhaveanimpact

uForgas,theStraitofHormuzclosureandQatarLNGshutdownmarkmajorLNGmarketdisruptions

Oil:Hormuzclosurecreatesbiggestdisruptioninhistory

OurBrentpriceassumptionfor2026isUSD80/b(table2.1).See

Oilmarkets:Disruptionfrom

Hormuzclosure;raisingforecasts

(10March2026).ThisreflectstheeffectiveclosureoftheStraitofHormuzsince28February;weadoptScenario2(aone-montheffectiveclosure)asour

workingbasecase.PresidentTrumpsaidon9Marchthatthewaris“veryfaraheadof

schedule”relativetohisexpectationatthestartoftheconflict.However,weexpecttosee

continuedvolatilityinthedaysandweeksaheadasthemarketdigestsadailybarrageofbearishandbullishnews,withpricestrendingupaslongasnodiplomaticandpracticalresolutionisin

sight.Wereferreadersto

OilandMiddleEast:Hormuzclosed:Fourscenariosfromhere

(5March2026)forthefullHormuzclosurescenarioanalysisandmitigationframework.

2.1.HSBCcrudepriceassumptions(USD/b)

Annualaverage

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026e

2027e

2028e

Brent

64.2

43.2

70.8

99.1

82.2

79.9

68.2

80.0

70.0

71.4

WTI

57.0

39.5

68.0

94.4

77.5

75.8

65.1

76.0

67.0

68.4

Quarterlyaverage

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26e

2Q26e

3Q26e

4Q26e

1Q27e

2Q27e

3Q27e

4Q27e

Brent

68.2

63.1

81.0

88.0

78.0

73.0

70.0

70.0

70.0

70.0

WTI

65.0

59.1

77.0

84.0

74.0

69.0

67.0

67.0

67.0

67.0

Source:LSEGEikon,HSBCestimates.NB:Pricesareinflatedby2%perannumbeyondtheendoftheexplicitforecastperiod

The1QaveragereflectsaspikeinMarchtouptoUSD120/b,triggeredbymoreannouncementsofoilproductioncurtailments,potentiallywithindays.Countriesthathavealreadyannouncedsome

outputreductions(Iraq,Qatar,Kuwait,UAEandSaudiArabia)mayhavetodeepenproductioncuts.Weexpectrisingfearsofdamagetokeyoil-producinginfrastructureafterthethwarteddroneattackonSaudiArabia’sShaybahfieldon7March.ConsumersscramblingforalternativestoMiddleEastcrudesshouldkeepthephysicalmarkettightandpriceshigh.

WethenassumepricesdropsharplyinlateMarch/earlyApriloncethereopeningofHormuziscrediblyconfirmed,albeitfromtriple-digitlevels.Gradualupstreamfieldrestartsandlogisticalconstraintsshouldslowthereturntopre-crisisconditions.Weexpectpricestoremaininthe

USD80-100/brangethroughApril-May,beforeeasingbacktocUSD80/bbyJune-July.

Evenafterflowsfullynormalise,lowerglobalinventories,alingeringriskpremium,anddelayedupstreaminvestment(outsidetheUS)arelikelytokeeptheforwardcurvehigherthanpre-crisis.

Equities●Global

https://www

HSBC

13