摩根士丹利-全球新兴市场策略：路演十大要点-Ten Takeaways from the Road-20260429

Morganstanley

April29,202602:39PMGMT

REEARCH

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GlobalEMStrategist

TenTakeawaysfromtheRoad

Wepresenttentakeawaysfromtheroadhavingspentthelasttwoweeksseeingclients.ThemoodisgenerallyconstructiveonEMlocalfundamentalsandmostinvestors,thoughfarfromall,assumethepathistowardanormalisationinoilflowsevenifittakestime.Thatassumptionisnowbeingstress-tested.

KeyTakeaways

Aftertwoweeksontheroad,wepresenttentakeawaysfromourclient

meetings.EMinvestorsareconstructiveonthebottomupfundamentalsandhaveexpressedawillingnesstolookthroughoilrisks.

InvestorsaremoreconstructiveonFXvsrates,reflectingconfidenceincentralbankeffectivenessandtheirwillingnesstoactamidinflationpressure.Wesharetheview.

WesharetheconstructiveviewsonBRLandHUF,thoughwearemoreneutralonCNYvsthepositivebiasinvestorsseemtohave.

InvestorswemetwitharemorecircumspectontheideaofaUSDdiscount,

relativetoourviewthatthishasbeenandremainsakeythemeintheFXmarket.

Risksentimenthasstayedpositiveasoilpricesroseagain.Thisdisconnectmaynotlastifoilmakesnewhighsandmarketspriceinaprolongeddisruption.WeseeMXNasagoodhedgeagainstthatrisk.

MustreadsfromGlobalEMStrategy

EMFixedIncomeStrategyandEconomics:MorganStanleyIMFPolicy

PulseTakeaways|

23-Apr-2026

WesummariseourviewsfromtheIMFSpringMeetings,highlightinginsightsfromourownmeetingsacrossbotheconomicsandstrategy.WealsocovertheoutlookforEMfundamentalsandkeyIMFannouncements.TheappendixincludesourpopularIMF'cheatsheet'.

ChileEconomicsandStrategy:CentralBankReview:Readytoactif

needed

|29-Apr-2026

TheBCChkeptthepolicyrateunchangedat4.50%,asexpected,ina

unanimousdecision.TheBoardstandsreadytoactifneeded,butmore

evidenceisrequiredtojustifyashifttowardtightening.Strategy-wise,wethinkthatthetoneoftheAprilstatementmoremeaningfullyalludestothepossibilityofhikesandweadda1yCAMpayertargeting5.35%.

HungaryEconomicsandMacroStrategy:NBHReview:Patiencein

Abundance

|28-Apr-2026

TheNBHguidedtoacautious,data-drivenapproach.WithinflationlikelytoriseandtheECBtotighten,westillexpecttheNBHtofollowsuit.Still,risks

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remainskewedtolessornotighteningatall.Weexpectthecurveto

continuetoflattenasriskpremiumreducesonthelongendofthecurve.

Peru:OurLatestThoughtsonthePeruElectionandFAQs

|27-Apr-2026Thelatestpresidentialcount(nowabove~95%)pointstoaFujimori–

Sánchezrunoff,thoughuncertaintyremainselevatedgiventhetightgap.Werecommendbuying2037PERUGBs,butseeelectionriskstillexpressed

throughFXhedgingintothe2ndround,andfavorsellingPERUvsCHILEincredit.

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Risksentimenthasstayedpositiveevenasoilpriceshaveclosedinontherecenthighs,orevensurpassedthemonsomecontracts.Amorehawkishtonefrom

majorcentralbankswouldbearisktosentiment,aswouldabreakdownin

negotiationsthatcausedinvestorstopriceinprolongedenergysupplydisruption,vsthemorerecentexpectationsofnegotiationsresultinginresolution,and

associatedglobalgrowthimpacts.

HavingspenttwoweeksseeingclientsintheUS,it'sclearthoughthatdespitetherisingrisksasoilpricesmovehigher,investorsretainaconstructivebiasonEM

localmarkets,particularlyFX,whichisthepreferredexpressionrelativetorates,duetothenear-terminflationrisksthattiltthebiasofCBpolicyhawkishand

provideforsomeFXstability.Wesharethisview,andshouldacorrectioninFXmaterialisenear-term(forwhichMXNislikelyanattractivehedge)webelievethefundamentalsoftheEMlocalmarketsassetclasssuggestitwouldbetemporaryandprovideopportunitiesforinvestorstoaddexposuretopositionforamedium-termgains.

Below,wehighlighttentakeawaysandbitsoffeedbackfromourrecentmeetings.ForeigninvestoroutflowsfromEMlocalcurrencygovernmentbondmarketshavealmostreachedtheentiretyofyear-to-dateinflowsseenaheadoftheconflict.

Significant,butnotsuggestiveofcleanpositioninggiventhelargeinflowsseenin2025.InFX,investorsarenowneutralUSD.

Localmarketstradesoverview

•Rates:CEEMEA:LongNGOMOB22-Sep-26(FX-unhedged);Asia:1s5sTHBNDTHORsteepener;pay5yINRNDOIS;LatAm:Pay1yCLPxCAM,Buy2037PeruGBs

•FX:CEEMEA:Re-entershort3mUSD/TRYforward.Asia:LongSGD/INR.

TenTakeawaysfromtheRoad

4

Thelasttwoweekshavebeenspentontheroad,hostingmeetingsinDContheIMF,andthenseeingclientsalongtheEastCoastoftheUS.Herearetentakeawaysfromthoseclientconversations.

Clientsshouldtakethesepointsoffeedbackasarealtimewindowintotheconversationshadatthetime,notnecessarilyasanindicatorofhowmarketswillevolveovercomingweeks.Iwillsprinklemyownobservationsandviewsonthelatteramongstthefeedbackfromtheroad.

1)InvestorswanttoreturntowhattheyweredoingbeforetheIranconflict:ThisbiasofinvestorstolookbeyondtheconflictwasclearinDCduringtheIMFweek,butalsoinmymorerecentmeetings.Theexpectationisthat,onewayoranother,theoilwillflow,asinvestorsperceiveadealtobedesiredbybothsides.Therehasbeen,quiteevidentlyfromthepriceaction,awillingnesstolookthroughtherealtimesupplydisruptionsaswellasthemorerecentriseinoilprices.Clientsnotedthattheirriskappetiteortheriskappetiteoftheircolleagueswashigherthatitwasbeforethewar,asinvestorleverageinequity

marketswaslower,risksaroundprivatecreditwerebetterunderstoodamongstmarketparticipantsthanwaspreviouslythecaseandcorporateearningsinQ1werestrong.

2)ClientsagreeEMfundamentalsaresupportiveofaddingexposureinlocalmarketswithapreferenceforFXoverrates:WeremainoftheviewthatEMfundamentalsare

supportiveoftheEMlocalmarketassetclass.MonetarypolicyhasincreasinglygainedtheconfidenceofmarketparticipantsacrosscentralbanksinEM,andacontrastcanbemadeherewithDM.

ManyEMcentralbanksemphasisetheimportanceoftheexchangerateintheinflation

processandwhiletheymaynottargetspecificexchangeratelevels,currencystabilityorstrengthisstillhelpful.SeveralEMcentralbanksarequiteexplicitaboutthisandweviewthisasanimportantanchorfortheassetclassboththroughclearcurrencyfocusbutin

helpingstabiliselong-runinflationexpectations,whichshouldbegoodfordurationovertime.

Intheshortterm,giventheinflationrisksfromthecontinuedtighteningintheoilmarkettheimplicationisthatFXwillbetheprimarydriverofindexreturnsaspolicystaystightershortterm,orpotentiallyneedstotighten,withbenefitstodurationandinflation

expectationinthelongerrun.

3)Thedisconnectcannotlastforever:Whiletherewasaclearbiasamongstclientstolookthroughtheshort-termsupplydisruption,withaviewthatresolutionwouldoccur,thereisrecognitionthatthereislikelyonlysolongthatriskmarketscancarryon

regardless.Indeed,theriskisthateverydaytheenergydoesnotflow,thetightertheoilmarketgetsasinventoryisdrawndown.

Asthisisreflectedinhigheroil,itwilltaxgrowthfurtherandraisetheriskofratehikesfromglobalcentralbanks,absentoffsetsfrom,say,AI-ledproductivitygains.AccordingtoMSresearchAIeffectshaveonlycontributedtoamodestincreaseintheunemploymentrate(see

here)

.

Theongoingriseinoilpricesthushasthepotentialtoderailriskappetite.Thetipping

pointisunclear,buthopecanonlycarrycarrystrategiessofar.AreturntoconflictintheMiddleEast,wouldsimilarlyactasacatalystforhigheroilandareturnofglobalgrowthconcerns.Forinvestorsworriedaboutglobalgrowthrisks,wethinkUSD/MXNwouldbe

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

anattractivehedge.

4)MixedviewsontheUSDdiscount:ClientshavemixedviewsontheextenttowhichpolicyuncertaintyislikelytodriveaweakerUSDoutcomethanwhatatraditional

fundamentalframeworksuchasratedifferentialswouldsuggest.ItisthecasethattheUSDhastradedweakerattimesoverthelast12mthanratedifferentialswouldhave

suggested,andthoseperiodshavebeenassociatedwithpolicyuncertainty.Yetsome

clientsbelievetheriseinoilpriceshaschangedtheoutlookfortheUSD,whileothers

believethepolicyuncertaintyvariableistoo,well,uncertaintoanchoraviewaround.

OthersaremoresympathetictoourviewthatthereremainsscopefortheUSDtotradeatalargerdiscounttowhatratedifferentialswouldsuggest–thoughevenwedo

recognisetherearelimitstohowlargethediscountcangetgiventheheadwindsfacedbyothermajorcurrenciesaswell.

5)BRLisastrongconsensustrade:WecontinuetobeconstructiveonBRLvsUSDandhaveflagged4.70-80asatarget.Wethinkthecurrencyismoreattractivethanreceivingrates,thoughweawaitmoreguidancefollowingtheBCBmeetingthisweek.Clientsare

generallyofthesameview.MycolleaguesdiscussedthisaspartoftheIMFfeedback(see

herea

nd

here)

butitwasapparentinmorerecentconversationswithclientsinthepastweektoo.Asanetenergyexporterandacurrencyofferinghighyieldsinexcessofthe

levelthatlikelystabilisesthecurrency,therearegoodreasonstoexpectthisconsensus

viewtoberewarded.Theelectionlaterthisyearisarisk,butmostclientswespoketo

assessitasunlikelymateriallydisrupttheoutlookinthenearterm.SomearguethatthereisverylimitedscopefortheBCBtocutratesandwhilewedonotsharethatview,theriskrewardaroundreceivingratesisnotattractivegivenmarketpricingandoilpricerisks.

6)MXNasthegrowthhedge:ClientsgenerallyagreedwiththeviewthatMXNhasahighbetatoriskappetiteandtheglobalgrowthoutlook-atleastinsofarasaglobalgrowthslowdownwouldimpacttheUSeconomy.Andwithinterestratedifferentialsbetween

MXNandUSDnarrower,thecostofbeingshortMXNisnolongeraheadwindforthoseconsideringsuchaposition.OureconomistsalsoseeBanxicocuttingratesfurtheroverthecomingmonths(see

here)

.Forsure,therearealternativecurrenciesthatcouldbeconsideredasagoodhedgetoarisingoilpriceandglobalgrowthslowdown.

7)TRYtrendstillintact,fornow:ClientsgenerallyagreethatTRYremainsanattractivelong.WhiletheCBTdecisiontokeepratesonholdwasasurprisetomanymarket

participantswedonotseeitasunderminingthecurrency.AsteeperupwardpathinUSD/TRYtoaccountforinflationrisksfromenergypricesisoffsetbyhighercarryrelativeto

thestartoftheyearandthecentralbankhasreservestofinanceportfoliooutflows.Akeyrisktothecurrencywouldemergeiflocaldemandforforeigncurrencypickedup.Sofarthereislittlesignofthat,butitwillbeakeyrisktomonitorasregionalanddomestic

politicaltrendsunfold.Fornow,wecontinuetobelieveUSD/TRYwilltradeinsidetheforwardcurveovertimedeliveringpositivetotalreturns.

8)HUFinteresthighfollowingelections:TheinterestinHungarianlocalmarketsishigh,withtheprospectofEUfundflowshelpingshort-termsentimentandrisingexpectationsthateurozonemembershipisontheagenda,anchoringthelong-termoutlook.Changestothecentralbankinflationtarget,shouldtheybeannounced,drawcomparisonswiththeinvestmentopportunitiesthatarosefollowingthechangesintheSARB'sinflationtarget,whiletheadoptionoftheEURwouldalsoremoveexchangerateriskandlowerfiscalrisks

6

fromholdinglocalbonds,helpingdurationaheadoftheevent.Weexpectinvestor

interestinHungarylocalmarketstoremainhighfortheremainderoftheyear.WeseeEUR/HUFtradingdowntothe340-350area,particularlyifweheadtoade-escalationscenariointheMiddleEast.

9)InvestorshaveabullishbiasonCNY-wedon't:InvestorsentimentaroundCNY

amongthosewespoketowasconstructive.Somebelievethegovernmenthasmore

toleranceofcurrencystrengthgiventhesizeofthecurrentaccountsurplus,while

conversationsaroundtheimplicationsofa"Petroyuan"skewbullishtoo,relativetothe

statusquo.Wediffergivena)theCFETSbasketisclosetothehighs;b)thegrowthmodelisskewedtowardexportcompetitiveness,andsustainedcurrencystrengthwillbe

unhelpfulintheabsenceofstrongerdomesticdemandandc)choosingtodenominatemorebilateraltradewithChinainCNY-atrendthathasbeeninplaceforsometime-shouldithappen,probablywon'thavesignificantimplicationsforthecurrency.

10)InvestorsexpectAsiaex-Chinatolag.WefoundthatthefocusofEMfixedincomeinvestorsistiltedtowardCEEMEAandLatam.AsiaexChinahaslaggedforsometime,and,amongthosewespoketo,thetermsoftradeandgrowthimplicationsoftheoil

supplyshockappeartohaveremovedanytemptationtopositionforacatchuptrade.

Whatcanwesayaboutpositioning?

InEMlocalcurrencybondmarkets,ourflowtrackercovers8EMmarkets–all

benchmarkcountries–thatreportdataonforeignholdingsoflocalcurrencygovernmentbondsonareasonablyhighfrequencybasis.Someofthedataaremoretimelythan

others,butoverallwecangetareasonablesenseofforeignflowsbymakingvaluationandexchangerateadjustments.

AsoflastFridayApril24th,wehaddatafrom4ofthe8countriesandasoftheFridaybefore(April17th)6ofthe8countrieshadreported.Thedataareagoodapproximationfortrendsintheoverallmarket(seeour

primerhere)

.

•YTDflowsrebounding.Cumulativeinflowsintoour9countriesreached$22bnandfellbackcloseto0beforereboundingtoaround$9bnbyApril24th.Thisleavestotalcumulativeflowsatasimilarpaceto2025.

•3msumflowsbacktoneutralzone:Rolling3msumflowshaddroppedfrom$40bninmidFebtoroughlyflatbytheweekendingApril24th.

•YTDreturnsarebacktored:TotalreturnsforEMlocalmarketspeakedin2HFebandhavenowunwoundallthegainsfortheyear,andtheindexisnowroughlyflatontheyear.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

Exhibit2:3mflowsmomentumnotyetflippedtonegative

$bn

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

3msum

Exhibit1:Flowsstartingtorebound

EMLCFlowTrackerYTDCumulative

40Flows,US$bn

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2013-202420252026

Source:Haver,NationalSources,Bloomberg

Source:Haver,NationalSources,Bloomberg

Ourflowtrackerinto9EMlocalmarketsiscorrelatedwiththereturnsoftheoveralllocalcurrencygovernmentbondmarket.Thisisnotsurprising,butconfirmsthevalidityofourtracker.Overthepast6m,returnsandflowsareverymuchintheneutralzone.

Exhibit3:Inflowsarecorrelatedwithreturns.Soifwehitextremesonoutflows(notthereyet)therisk/rewardtoenterthemarketcouldbestrong

$mn(26wsum)

4020%

3015%

2010%

105%

00%-10-5%

-20-10%-30-15%-40-20% Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25Apr-26

Flows(26wSum)Returns(26w,rhs)

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,Bloomberg

InFXmarkets,weuseFXoptionsdatatogaugepositioning,andthesedatacontinuetoshowalongUSDbiasforinvestors.

•UnwindinglongUSDpositions:TheDXY,BBDXYandareUSDindicesthat

investorstrack.AggregatingtheindividualcurrencypairstoreflecttheseindicesshowsthatpositioninginUSDisneutral.

Thepositionsthatinvestorsdohavethoughsuggestariskonbias,withHUF,NOKandAUDamongthemostpopularcurrencies,followingbyCZK,lDRandBRL.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

GLoBALlDEA

8

Exhibit4:PositioningintheFXOptionsMarketshowsneutralUSDpositioningoverallbutariskonbiasisclear

HKD

JPYvsEUR

SEKvsEUR

CHF

JPY

CHFvsEUR

TRY

PLNvsEUR

ZAR

CNY

GBPvsEUR

CAD

BroadUSD

BBDXY

DXY

TWD

EUR

NOK

INR

GBP

MXN

SGD

NZD

BRL

IDR

CZKvsEUR

AUD

NOKvsEUR

HUFvsEUR

Datalabelsshowlatestvalueinpercentileterms

47444480

32463450454646

2949

Level

100

50

0

-50

-100

Latest(28thApr)TwoWeekChg

9498

85

7256

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

49574561

5031

71

20

60

59

54

Source:DTCC,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:Usingoptionsthatweretradedinthepastthreemonthsandexpireinthecoming

onemonth.Notionalsaredelta-adjusted.DataasofApril27th.See

FXTradingSignalsFromOptionsData

and

AssessingFXPositioningwith

CurrencyOptions

EMfixedincometotalreturnsYTDarediverse,withAsianotjustlaggingbutsubtractingfromindexreturns,withLatamcontinuingtogeneratethebulkofreturnsforinvestors.OveralltheindexisnowflatYTD,andinCEEMEAonlyHUFhasdeliveredasignificantpositivecontribution.

Exhibit5:CEEMEAandAsiahaveunderperformedytd(updated)

BRL

CLP

COP

MXN

PEN

CZK

HUF

PLN

RON

TRY

ZAR

IDR

MYR

PHP

THB

CNH

2.1%

-1.1%-1.3%

-3.9%

LatAmCEEMEAAsia

DurationFXTR(inUSDterms)

2.8%0.9%

-3.8%

YTD

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

0.9%

-2.4%

9.3%

6.3%

-10%-15%

13.3%

-4.6%

-7.3%

Carry

3.5%

9.8%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

GLobALIDEA

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9

Requiredreading

ChileEconomicsandStrategy:CentralBankReview:Readytoactifneeded

|29-Apr-2026

•TheBCChkeptthepolicyrateunchangedat4.50%,asexpected,inaunanimousdecision.

•Thestatementreinforcesacautious,data-dependentstanceamidelevatedexternaluncertainty.

•TheBoardstandsreadytoactifneeded,butmoreevidenceisrequiredtojustifyashifttowardtightening.

•Strategy-wise,wethinkthatthetoneoftheAprilstatementmoremeaningfullyalludestothepossibilityofhikesandweadda1yCAMpayertargeting5.35%.

HungaryEconomicsandMacroStrategy:NBHReview:PatienceinAbundance

|28-Apr-2026

TheNBHguidedtoacautious,data-drivenapproach.Withinflationlikelytoriseandthe

ECBtotighten,westillexpecttheNBHtofollowsuit.Still,risksremainskewedtolessornotighteningatall.Weexpectthecurvetocontinuetoflattenasriskpremiumreducesonthelongendofthecurve.

Peru:OurLatestThoughtsonthePeruElectionandFAQs

|27-Apr-2026

•Thelatestpresidentialcount(nowabove~95%)pointstoaFujimori–Sánchezrunoff,thoughuncertaintyremainselevatedgiventhetightgap.

•Sofar,theemergingCongressconfiguration(Senate+Deputies)ishighlyfragmented,withnogroupclosetoamajority.

•Thisislikelytosupportpolicycontinuityinthenearterm,butlimitsthescopeforstructuralreforms,increasingfiscalpressuresovertime.

•Werecommendbuying2037PERUGBs,butseeelectionriskstillexpressed

throughFXhedgingintothe2ndround,andfavorsellingPERUvsCHILEincredit.

•WealsoprovidealistofFAQsonthelogisticsofpotentialnextstepsfollowingthereleaseofthefirstroundresults,inlightofpotentialrecountrisks

IndiaFixedIncomeStrategy:BondFlowsTracker

|27-Apr-2026

TheflowpictureremainsmixedinApril,withoutflowsinIndiadebtandequitiesoffsetinpartbyimprovingFARflows.AlthoughFXhedgingconditionshaveimprovedfromearlyAprillevels,FX-hedgedG-secyieldsarestilllowerthanUSTs.

BrazilEconomics&Strategy:CentralBankPreview:CuttingThroughUncertainty|

24-Apr-2026

•WeexpectBCBtocutratesby25bpsto14.50%atitsnextmeeting,despitetherecentriseininflationexpectationsamidMiddleEasttensions

•WeanticipateBCBwillhighlighttheongoingdecelerationineconomicactivity;itsinflationforecastshouldremainunchanged(3.3%)helpedbythestrongerBRL

•Thestatementshouldremaindata-dependent,butwestillexpectBCBtosignalthecontinuationofthe"calibration"cycle,inourview

•WeexpectBCBtoaccelerateeasingpaceinJune,withSelicreaching12.00%by

10

year-end;risksremainforfewercutsifMiddleEastconflictextendsfurther

•Strategy-wise,allelseequal,wefavorFXoverratesandwethinkthatUSD/BRLcouldgrindtowards4.80overthenexttwomonths,withelectionpollsasthemaintwo-wayrisk

ColombiaEconomics&Strategy:CentralBankPreview:Scalingdownhikes|

24-Apr-2026

•Thestartofthetighteningcycleappearstohavebeendeliberatelyfront-loaded,largelyreflectingacatch-uptothepolicystancefromlastyear.

•Withmuchofthatrecalibrationnowinplace,thepaceofhikesislikelytomoderateto50bpincrements.

•WeexpectBanReptodelivera50bphiketo11.75%atitsApril30meeting,continuingatighteningcycletowards12.25%.

•Pricingincorporatesa0%chancethataratehikewillnotbedeliveredattheAprilmeeting,implyingthatrisksareskewedtowardsanon-decisionoutcome.

•Atthisstage,ratestradesarefundamentallyexpressionsofpotentialelectionoutcomes,soweprefertoremainneutralonIBR.

EMSovereignCreditStrategy:WhereSupplyMeetsDemand|

24-Apr-2026

EMflows:Global-mandatedEMDDfundssawinflowsworthUS$3.3bnlastweek,fromUS$748minflowsfromthepriorweek.

EMFixedIncomeStrategyandEconomics:MorganStanleyIMFPolicyPulseTakeaways

|23-Apr-2026

WesummariseourviewsfromtheIMFSpringMeetings,highlightinginsightsfromour

ownmeetingsacrossbotheconomicsandstrategy.WealsocovertheoutlookforEM

fundamentalsandkeyIMFannouncements.TheappendixincludesourpopularIMF'cheatsheet'.

TurkeyEconomicsandMacroStrategy:CBTReview:OnStandby|

22-Apr-2026

TheCBTkeptitskeypolicyrateunchangedat