高盛-美国数据中心电力需求有望激增-US Data Center Power Demand Likely to Surge-20260505

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hp

itsi:e/s/wse.vaaruhelist5May2026|2:20PMEDT

POWERANALYST

USDataCenterPowerDemandLikelytoSurge

nWeusetherelationshipbetweenscheduledandactivateddatacentercapacitytoforecastanaccelerationinUSdatacentergrowth,thekeydriverofthe

infiectioninUSpowerdemand.

nWeexpectUSdatacentercapacitytomorethandoublebetweenend-2025andend-2027,reaching95GWinend-2027,asannualadditionsacceleratefrom

8.5GWin2026to13.6GWin2026and36GWin2027.Thisforecasttakesintoaccountthatonly60/50%ofcurrentlyscheduledadditionsarerealizedoverthenext1/2years.

nAccordingly,weexpectUSdatacenterpowerdemandtoincreasefrom31GWin2025to41/66GWin2026/27assumingacapacityutilizationrateof70%.By

2027,weexpectdatacenterstoaccountfor8.5%oftotalUSpowerdemand.Werecognizethatawiderangeofoutcomesexistdependingonanumberoffactorsincludingdatasources,withGSresearch2026/27estimatesrangingfromour

equityresearchcolleagues’39/50GWbasedon451Researchdata,andour41/66GWbasedonAteriodata.

nWeexpectthisdatacenteraccelerationtoincrementally

tighten

USpower

markets,andreinforcethe

divergence

acrossregions.Weexpecteventighter

powerbalancesinalreadycriticallytightmarkets,suchasPJM(Mid-Atlantic),butonlymarginaltighteninginlooserregionalmarketslikeERCOT(Texas)givenrapidongoingpowersupplygrowth.

nConsequently,wecontinuetorecommendhedgingagainstbothupsidepowerpricerisksfromsurgingdatacenterpowerdemandanddownsidepowerpriceriskswhereregionalsupplygrowthmaytemporarilyoutpacedemandgrowth.

HongcenWei

+1(212)934-4691|

hongcen.wei@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DaanStruyven

+1(212)357-4172|

daan.struyven@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SamanthaDart

+1(212)357-9428|

samantha.dart@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachs

httpsP:o/wA.

nalyst

Evenadjustingforpotentialdelaysandcancellations,weexpectdatacentercapacity

additionstoaccelerate,morethandoublingUSdatacentercapacityto95GWbyend-2027vs.end-2025levels

USDataCenterPowerDemandCapacity

GW

160

140

120

GW

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

RawSchedule

GSForecasts

LinearTrendof2025

GSEstimatedDelaysandCancellations

100

80

60

40

AccelerationvsTrend

20

0

Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26Sep-26Dec-26Mar-27Jun-27Sep-27Dec-27

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

WeexpectdatacentergrowthaccelerationtofurthertightenUSandregionalpowermarkets

PeakSummerEffectivePowerGenerationSpareCapacity

Realized2025GSFcast2027

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

CriticalReliabilityThreshold

Tighter

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%

NW(Northwest)PJM(Mid-Atlantic)

MISO(Mid-Continent)

SE(Georgia)CAISO(California)

0%ERCOT(Texas)USLower48

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

USDataCenterPowerDemandLikelytoSurge

AsweexpectdatacenterstobetheprimarydriverofUSpowerdemandgrowth,weseeawiderangeofdatacenterpowerdemandforecasts.Ourequityresearchcolleagues

forecastUSdatacenterpowerdemandtoincreasefrom31GWin2025to50GWin2027,basedon

analysis

ofsemiconductors,chips,anddatacenterinfrastructure

5May20262

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5May20263

companies.Consensusexpectationsshowwideranges,including~30-55GW

(

DepartmentofEnergy

andLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory)andfrom42GW(

McKinsey

)to67GW(

BostonConsulting

)in2027.

InthisAnalyst,weexamineAteriodata

1

ondetailedUSdatacenterprojectdevelopmentschedules.Specifically,wecomparehistoricalrelationshipsbetweenscheduledand

realizednewcapacityactivationtoforecastfuturedatacentercapacityadditionsinUSpowermarketsandcorrespondingpowerdemandgrowth.

SubstantialAccelerationinScheduledCapacityAddition

WeseesubstantialaccelerationinUSdatacenterexpansionschedulesstartingfrom2026.Year-over-year(yoy)capacityadditionsarescheduledtoreach19/69GWin2026/27,vsrealizedadditionsof6.4/8.5GWin2024/25(Exhibit1).

Keyregionalpowermarketsarescheduledtoleadthegrowth.Theaverageannualadditionsin2027ineachofthePJM(Mid-Atlantic),ERCOT(Texas),andMISO

(Mid-Continent)powermarketsarescheduledtoexceednationaltotaladditionsin2025.

WeuseAteriodatacenterdevelopmentschedules,restrictingthesampletodata

centerswhichhavestartedconstructionandhavesecuredresources(e.g.,land,water,permits,power).TheAteriodataontheexpecteddatefordatacenteractivationare

basedongranularinformationacrossindividualfacilities,includinglocations,permittingandconstructionprogressesfromofficialannouncements,satelliteimages,etc.

Exhibit1:Currentdatacenterdevelopmentschedulessuggestrapidgrowthinthenextfewyears,subjecttoschedulechanges

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

DelayandCancellationRisks

However,wenoticethatasignificantshareofscheduleddatacentercapacitycanfailto

1AteriodatatracksdatacenterconstructionandactivationprogressesintheUSbasedonpublicfilings,applications,announcements,andsatelliteimagery.

5May20264

beactivatedontime.ComparingDecember2024datacenterdevelopmentschedules

withlaterdatacenteractivations,wefindonly72%ofdatacentersthatwerescheduledtobeactivatedinthefollowingfourquarterscameonlineontime(Exhibit2).

Furthermore,thelikelihoodofactivationdecreasesastheleadtimeincreases(betweenthetimeofthescheduletimeandthescheduledactivation).Weattributethesepatternstoseveralfactors,whichareconsistentwithwhatweheardfromclients,industry

experts,anddatacenterdevelopers.

nSiteshopping:Tomitigaterisksfrom

localpushbacks

,permittingdelays,orresourcescarcity(crucially,power,land,andwater),itisnotuncommonthatdatacenter

developerssubmitmultipleapplicationsacrossregionsandproceedonlywiththemostfavorablesite.

nSupplychainandlaborissuesarethemostcommonreasonsforadelay,e.g.,apauseofmonthsduringconstructionwaitingforelectricalparts.

nConstructiontimelines:Adatacentertypicallyrequires1.5-2yearstoconstructoncepermitted,sothat,forexample,thelikelihoodofadatacenterishigherifitisscheduledtobeactivatedsooner.

Exhibit2:Asignificantshareofscheduleddatacentercapacityfailedtobeactivatedontimeduetodelaysandcancellations

Dec2024ScheduledRealized

2025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1

GW

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2024Q4

GW

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

USCumulativeDataCenterCapacityAdditionsSinceScheduled

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Toaccountfortheserisks,weadjustexpecteddatacentercapacityadditionswith

decreasinglikelihoodofactivationintime,followinghistoricalrealizationsofdatacenterschedules(Exhibit3).Specifically,wecalculaterealizedactivationlikelihoodsof

developmentschedulessinceDecember2024(thebluelinesinExhibit3),smooth,andextrapolatethemtotwoyearsintotheredline.Givencurrentdatacenterdevelopmentschedules(Apr26),weexpectthatapproximately60%ofdatacentercapacityadditionscurrentlyscheduledforthenextyearwillmaterializeontime,andapproximately50%forthenexttwoyears.

5May20265

Exhibit3:Calibratedtohistoricalrealization,weestimatedecreasinglikelihoodsofscheduleddatacenteractivationsastheleadtimeincreases

USDataCenter-LikelihoodofScheduledAdditionstoBecomeActive

%ofSchedule%ofSchedule

110%110%

Dec24Scheduled(RealizeduntilQ+5)

100%Mar25Scheduled100%

Jun25Scheduled

90%90%

GSForecasts

80%80%

70%70%

60%60%

50%50%

40%40%

30%30%

SchedulingQQ+1Q+2Q+3Q+4Q+5Q+6Q+7Q+8

Thelikelihoodisfortheperiodfromtheschedulingquarteruntilthequarteronthex-axis,asopposedtoasinglequarter.Forexample,~60%ofscheduledadditionsareexpectedtobeactivatedinfirstfourquartersafterbeingscheduled,asopposedtointhefourthquarterafterbeingscheduled.

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

DataCenterPowerDemandGrowthForecasts

Evenafteradjustingforpotentialdelaysandcancellations,weforecastasignificant

accelerationindatacentercapacityadditions(Exhibit4).Specifically,weforecast11.5GWdatacenterpowerdemandcapacityadditionsin2Q-4Q2026intheUS,following

2.2GWrealizedin1Q2026and8.5GWin2025.Weexpectfurtheraccelerationin2027,withannualadditionsof36GW/y.ThiswouldbringtotalUSdatacentercapacityto95GWbytheendof2027,morethandoublingtheend-2025level.

5May20266

Exhibit4:Evenadjustingforpotentialdelaysandcancellations,weexpectdatacenter

capacityadditionstoaccelerate,bringingtotalUSdatacentercapacityto95GWbytheendof2027

USDataCenterPowerDemandCapacity

GW

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

GW

RawSchedule

GSForecasts

LinearTrendof2025

GSEstimatedDelaysandCancellations

AccelerationvsTrend

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26Sep-26Dec-26Mar-27Jun-27Sep-27Dec-27

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Accordingly,weexpectUSdatacenterpowerdemandtoincreasefrom31GWin2025to41GWin2026to66GWin2027,assumingapowerdemandutilizationrateof70%thatisconsistentwiththefive-yearhistoricalaverage(Exhibit4).Wenotethatour

developmentschedule-basedforecastsbasedonAteriodataareaboveourequity

researchcolleagues’forecastsbasedonS&P451dataof39/50GWin2026/27(Exhibit5).Thedi仟erencerefiectsdi仟erencesindatasourcesandmethodologiesinadjusting

potentialdelaysandcancellationsthatcouldresultinarangeofestimatesforfuturedatacenterpowerdemand.Wealsonotetheshorthistoryofdataweusedinour

analysisandthefast-changingmarketenvironmentkeepuncertaintyelevated.

5May20267

Exhibit5:Accordingly,weexpectUSdatacenterpowerdemandtomorethantriplefrom31GWin2025to66GWin2027,constituting8.5%ofitstotalpeaksummerpowerdemand

USDataCenterPowerDemand

GW

9%

8%

GSForecasts

70

ShareinPeakSummerDemand(rhs)

60

7%

50

6%

40

30

5%

4%

3%

20

2%

10

0

1%

0%

202120222023202420252026E2027E

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

IncrementalTightnessandRegionalDivergence

Consequently,weexpectthisaccelerationindatacenterpowerdemandgrowthto

furthertightenUSpowermarkets,whichweestimatearealreadycriticallytightinsomeregions(Exhibit6).Atthenationallevel,weforecasttheshareofUSdatacentersintotalpeaksummerpowerdemandtoincreasefrom4.1%in2025to5.3%in2026and8.5%in2027,leadingtoincrementaltightnessintheUSpowermarket.

Exhibit6:WeexpectdatacentergrowthaccelerationtofurthertightenUSandregionalpowermarkets

PeakSummerEffectivePowerGenerationSpareCapacity

Realized2025GSFcast2027

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

CriticalReliabilityThreshold

Tighter

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%

NW(Northwest)PJM(Mid-Atlantic)

MISO(Mid-Continent)

SE(Georgia)CAISO(California)

0%ERCOT(Texas)USLower48

Source:EIA,Bloomberg,Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5May20268

AcrossUSpowermarkets,wealsoexpectsignificantdatacentergrowthacceleration(Exhibit7)withdivergentimpacts.

nElevatedreliabilityrisks:WeexpectsignificantadditionstoexacerbatepowerreliabilityriskswitheventighterbalancesinthePJM(Mid-Atlantic),MISO

(Mid-Continent),NW(Northwest)markets,givenlimitedscheduledgenerationcapacityadditionsvssignificantdatacentergrowth.Weseeincreasingrisksthatthesemarketsmayhavetoturnsomefuturedatacentersawayandrecommendhedgingtheupsideriskstolocalpowerprices.

nMarginaltightening:SignificantadditionstoonlymarginallytightenpowerbalancesinERCOT(Texas),SPP(Central-Southwest),andSE(Georgia),whichweexpectto

remainontheloosersidegiventheirscheduledpowergenerationcapacityadditions.

nConstrainedadditionsinalreadycriticallytightmarketssuchasTVA(Tennessee),ISONE(NewEngland),andFL(Florida).

Exhibit7:WeexpectsignificantdatacentergrowthaccelerationinboththeUSnationalandreginalpowermarketsinthenextfewyears

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Weexpecttheseimpactstoreinforce

regionaldivergence

instructuraltightening.Thistrendisconsistentwithourviewthatpoweravailabilityistheprimarydriverofdata

center

locations

(e.g.,additionsinTexasandGeorgia),alongwithtime-to-client,

particularlyinthecaseofPJMthatisstilladdingsignificantlydespitecriticaltightpowerbalances(e.g.,additionsinVirginiaandOhio,Exhibit8).

5May20269

Exhibit8:Weexpectregionaldivergenceinstructuraltighteningtobereinforcedbydivergentdatacenterimpactsacrossthenation

Source:Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Two-SidedRisks

Wenoteafewcaveatswithourdevelopmentschedule-basedforecasts.

nIncrementaladditions:Aswelookfurtherintothefuture,newprojectsarelikelytobescheduled,resultingin

oRealizedcapacityadditionspotentiallyexceedingoriginalschedulesinlateryears.

nDataconstraints:

oLimitedhistory:DuetodataavailabilityandtherelativelyrecentstartofthecurrentAIwave,weareconstrainedbyhistoryofdatacenterdevelopments(goingbacktoDecember2024andrealizeduntilMarch2026),whichfuturedatacenterdevelopmentsdonothavetofollow.

oLimitedvisibility:Manydatacentersdonotmakeapublicannouncement

whilepublicfilingsmaynotbeavailableimmediately,makingthempossibletobeaddedintothedatasetatatimethatisonlyfewmonthsbeforeoreven

aftertheiractivation.

nVariableconstructiontimelines:Elevatedcapexcouldshortendatacenter

constructiontimelinetoaslittleasoneyear,whilepotentialsupplychainandlaborissuescouldextendit,bothdeviatingfromhistoricalpatterns.

Givenbothdownsiderisksduetodelays/cancellationsandpotentiallysubstantialupside

5May202610

risksduetoincrementaldatacenterprojects,wecontinuetorecommendhedging

againstbothupsideriskstopowerpricesfromsurgingdatacenterpowerdemand(e.g.,PJMinMid-Atlantic)anddownsiderisks(e.g.,ERCOTinTexas)whereregionalsupply

growthmaytemporarilyoutpaceload.

Appendix

USPowerMarketTightnessScenarios

Exhibit9:WeexpectdatacentergrowthaccelerationtofurthertightenUSandregionalpowermarketsacrossscenarios

PeakSummerEffectiveSparePowerGenerationCapacityin2027E

Realized2025

Given2022-2025DemandGrowthRate

FasterDataCenterGrowthGivenDevelopmentScheduleGSFcast(=AverageofTwoBlues)

CriticalReliabilityThreshold

Tighter

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%

0%ERCOT(Texas)USLower48

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NW(Northwest)PJM(Mid-Atlantic)

SE(Georgia)CAISO(California)

MISO(Mid-Continent)

Source:EIA,Bloomberg,Aterio,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachs

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5May202611

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,HongcenWei,DaanStruyvenandSamanthaDart,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyrefiectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfiuencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.ContributingAuthors:HongcenWeiGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,DaanStruyvenGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,SamanthaDartGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedintheContributingAuthorsdisclosureofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

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