库存周期跟踪报告：季节性“主动补库”

内容目录库存期览 3库存期览分业） 8风险示 9图表目录图表1：工企产存货比升2.7百点至6.3_2026.02 3图表2：库周的段论 3图表：全工行业“主补存_206.02 4图表：上行（矿业仅全库的“动库”_0262 5图表：中行（上游造，全库的54主补存2026.2 6图表：下行（游制业水气占部存43主补存_02602 7图表：电子“动库存_206.02 8图表：电机械“动补存_206.02 8图表：化工“动库存_206.02 8图表0：造被库存_206.02 8图表1：汽被库存_206.02 9图表2：有主库存_206.02 9图表3：仪仪动补存_206.02 9图表4：通设动补存_206.02 91.库存周期概览2026年2月工企成品货比升2.7百分至6.6。1.库存周期概览图表1：工业企业产成品存同比上升2.7个百分点至6.3 _2026.02工业企业:产成品存货:累计同比%2008.092005.012008.092005.012011.112014.092021.092018.092001.076.60129M234534M649M740M8302520151050-5-1001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26注：灰色虚线部分为将21年同比数据转化为两年平均图表2：库存周期的四阶段论国金证券研究所整理全工业行业自去年秋旺后再现“主动补库”状态。图表3_2026.022016-072016-082016-092016-072016-082016-092016-102016-112016-122017-022017-03主动补2017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-122018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-08被动补库存被动补被动去库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动补库存被动去库存2018-092018-102018-112018-122019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-11主动去库存主动去被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存被动去库存被动去库存2019-122020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-07被动补库存被动补库存被动去主动补库存2020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-06主动补库存主动补库存主动补被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动补库存主动补库存2021-072021-08被动补库存被动补库存被动补2021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-02主动去库存主动去主动补库存主动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存2023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11被动去库存被动去库存被动去主动去库存主动补库存主动补库存被动去库存被动去库存2023-122024-022024-032024-042024-05主动补库存主动补库存主动补被动补库存主动补库存主动补库存2024-062024-07被动补库存被动补库存被动补2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-02主动去被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存主动补库存

库存阶段上游行业重回“被动去库存”。图表4：上游行业（2_2026.02上游行业主动补库存 被动补库存 主动去库存 被动去库

库存阶段（按百分比孰高）

29% 43% 14% 17% 0% 67% 0% 14% 43% 0% 50% 33% 17% 33% 50% 0%0% 29% 29% 0% 50% 50% 0%0% 57% 43% 0%0% 29% 57% 17% 0% 67% 50% 0% 33% 17% 17% 17% 20% 60% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%50% 17% 17% 43% 14% 29% 50% 17% 33% 0%0% 14% 29% 29% 14% 29% 0% 29% 57% 14% 43% 14% 33% 0% 17% 0% 83% 0% 29% 14% 0% 33% 17% 50% 0%67% 0% 33% 0%29% 29% 29% 29% 14% 43% 14% 57% 0% 14% 29% 43% 14% 43% 29% 14% 43% 43% 0%86% 0% 14% 0%14% 14% 14% 14% 57% 14% 14% 14% 43% 0% 17% 17% 29% 14% 14% 29% 14% 29% 17% 33% 33% 33% 17% 17% 57% 0% 0% 43% 0% 0% 43% 43% 0% 14% 0% 29% 29% 43% 14% 14% 14% 29% 14% 0% 14% 14% 29% 43% 43% 29% 14% 29% 14% 57% 0%57% 14% 29% 0%29% 14% 14% 43% 14% 14% 33% 50% 0% 50% 50% 0% 0%0% 20% 40% 33% 50% 17% 0%0% 57% 43% 0%17% 67% 17% 0%0% 17% 83% 0%33% 17% 50% 0%0% 50% 33% 17% 50% 0% 17% 17% 50% 0% 33% 50% 0% 0% 100% 0%0% 50% 50% 0%17% 17% 67% 0%0% 40% 40% 17% 0% 17% 57% 14% 14% 17% 17% 0% 60% 0% 20% 29% 14% 43% 43% 29% 0% 29% 43% 0% 14% 0% 43% 0% 0% 57% 50% 50% 0% 0%14% 14% 43% 14% 14% 57% 0% 50% 0% 14% 14% 57% 29% 14% 29% 43% 29% 29% 0%33% 67% 0% 0%43% 29%33% 33%17% 50% 33% 0%0% 29% 57% 33% 33% 33% 0%17% 33% 17% 20% 20% 0% 17% 17% 17% 50% 17% 0%40% 20% 20%29% 0% 29%

被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动补库存被动去库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存主动去库存主动补库存主动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存主动补库存主动去库存主动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动补库存主动去库存被动补库存

主动去主动补主动去被动去被动补主动去被动去中游行业大面积“主动补库存”。图表5：中游行业（54_2026.02中游行业主动补库存 被动补库存 主动去库存 被动去库

库存阶段（按百分比孰高）2017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-112017-1214% 64% 7% 14%20% 13% 33% 33%25% 6% 19% 50%13% 31% 50% 6%7% 33% 47% 13%25% 25% 19% 31%44% 31% 0% 25%0% 50% 44% 6%18% 35% 47% 0%被动补库存主动去主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存主动补库存主动去库存主动去库存2018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-0828% 33% 33% 6%18% 35% 18% 29%11% 11% 11% 67%24% 53% 12% 12%29% 47% 12% 12%53% 35% 12% 0%29% 35% 18% 18%被动补库存被动补库存被动补被动去库存被动补库存被动补库存主动补库存被动补库存2018-092018-102018-112018-122019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-116% 33% 50% 11%22% 39% 22% 17%6% 31% 25% 38%12% 6% 65% 18%6% 39% 50% 6%11% 0% 0% 89%0% 83% 17% 0%13% 19% 44% 25%12% 35% 53% 0%0% 13% 20% 67%13% 31% 44% 13%6% 19% 63% 13%13% 6% 63% 19%19% 6% 25% 50%主动去库存主动去被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存被动去库存2019-122020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-076% 61% 11% 22%0% 94% 6% 0%89% 0% 6% 6%11% 0% 6% 83%17% 0% 6% 78%17% 11% 0% 72%24% 0% 6% 71%被动补库存被动补库存被动去主动补库存被动去库存2020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-0853% 6% 6% 35%53% 0% 0% 47%28% 0% 11% 61%56% 6% 0% 38%44% 11% 6% 39%61% 0% 0% 39%17% 72% 11% 0%11% 0% 0% 89%56% 6% 17% 22%28% 28% 11% 33%22% 44% 28% 6%44% 33% 17% 6%主动补库存主动补库存主动补被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存2021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-0422% 22% 50%6%22% 56% 0% 22%33% 56% 11% 0%17% 28% 56% 0%6% 39% 44% 11%6% 65% 24% 6%0% 61% 39% 0%主动去库存被动补被动补库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存被动补库存2022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-070% 24% 53% 24%11% 28% 33% 28%6% 17% 50% 28%6% 6% 67% 22%22% 33% 28% 17%0% 29% 47% 24%0% 24% 65% 12%6% 13% 75% 6%11% 67% 22% 0%18% 0% 24% 59%0% 0% 29% 71%6% 12% 47% 35%11% 22% 39% 28%18% 24% 35% 24%主动去库存主动去被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动去库存主动去库存2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-022024-032024-042024-052024-0644% 31% 6% 19%44% 6% 33% 17%28% 11% 22% 39%50% 6% 6% 39%56% 17% 6% 22%53% 0% 6% 41%0% 50% 44% 6%62% 23% 15% 0%50% 21% 7% 21%41% 24% 29% 6%主动补库存主动补库存主动补被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存主动补库存2024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-0229% 35% 6% 29%0% 39% 50% 11%18% 29% 47% 6%7% 20% 47% 27%11% 33% 28% 28%47% 0% 18% 35%29% 35% 12% 24%被动补库存被动补主动去库存被动补库存主动补库存被动补库存2025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-0944% 17%6% 13%0% 17% 72% 11%0% 50% 39% 11%12% 18% 47% 24%22% 22% 33% 22%25% 31% 31% 13%主动补库存主动去主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存2025-102025-112025-122026-026%56% 39%0%被动补库存38% 31% 25%11%50%28%6% 11%83%0%主动补库存下游行业时隔1年再现“主动补库存”。图表6：下游行业（43“主动补库存”_202602下游行业主动补库存 被动补库存 主动去库存 被动去库

库存阶段（按百分比孰高）

29% 57% 0% 38% 13% 25% 24% 18% 0% 21% 21% 50% 7%17% 39% 39% 6%6% 22% 28% 24% 35% 24% 6% 44% 44% 6%14% 14% 71% 0%33% 11% 22% 22% 28% 22% 11% 22% 17% 11% 61% 22%6%6% 50% 31% 17% 39% 22% 18% 35% 29% 7% 36% 43% 25% 25% 50% 0%0% 33% 33% 19% 44% 19% 25% 44% 25% 6%13% 0% 13% 13% 63% 13% 0% 29% 43% 13% 31% 31% 33% 0% 33% 21% 29% 36% 7% 29% 43% 27% 13% 53% 7%38% 8% 38% 6% 44% 44% 6%0% 81% 13% 6%63% 13% 6% 40% 0% 0% 50% 0% 6% 13% 0% 7% 19% 0% 13% 50% 6% 0% 33% 0% 0% 13% 13% 6% 36% 14% 0% 44% 13% 13% 63% 0% 0% 38% 44% 6% 19% 0% 31% 25% 44% 13% 25% 13% 38% 19% 38% 38% 6%19% 69% 13% 0%31% 6% 38% 19% 38% 19% 50% 13% 19% 25% 25% 13% 27% 33% 20% 13% 44% 13% 13% 44% 44% 0%19% 19% 44% 25% 25% 38% 14% 21% 43% 13% 13% 63% 7% 40% 33% 13% 38% 38% 7% 40% 47% 7%0% 31% 50% 19% 44% 38% 0%13% 33% 13% 6% 13% 31% 25% 13% 31% 13% 20% 27% 7% 13% 53% 21% 36% 29% 21% 29% 7% 20% 0% 27% 36% 0% 7% 21% 7% 21% 56% 13% 19% 6% 50% 31% 20% 33% 27% 25% 19% 38% 13% 25% 50% 19% 38% 31% 7% 57% 21% 21% 21% 43% 21% 29% 29% 7% 36% 14% 50% 25% 17% 8%20% 47% 20% 31% 6%20% 13% 40% 25% 19% 38% 13% 27% 33% 0% 20% 60% 0% 9% 91% 0%7% 21% 50% 13% 13% 67% 7%20% 33% 33% 0% 47% 53% 0%

被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存被动去库存被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存被动去库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存主动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动补库存主动去库存被动补库存

主动去被动补主动去被动去被动补主动去被动去2.库存周期概览（分行业）2.库存周期概览（分行业）图表7：电子“主补库存”_206.02 图表8：电气机械“主动补存_2026.02计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业:产成品存货（%）计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业:营业收入（%）40 40

电气机械及器材制造业:产成品存货（%）电气机械及器材制造业:营业收入（%）0-10

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