摩根士丹利-人工智能与经济转型-AI and the Economic Transition-20260527

MORGAN

.

STANLEYRESEARCH

MorganstanleyNorthAmerica

May27,202606:47PMGMT

May27,2026

AIandtheEconomicTransition

May27,2026

MichaelGapen,ChiefUSEconomistSamCoffin,USEconomist

DiegoAnzoategui,USEconomistArunimaSinha,GlobalEconomist

MichelleWeaver,USEquityThematicStrategist

AllinformationasofMay14,2026,unlessotherwisestated.

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

Morganstanley

MAY27,20262

AImattersforouroutlookoninvestmentspending,labormarketsandproductivitygrowth

•AI-relatedcapexshouldcontinuetodriveoverallgrowth,supportedbysustainedhyperscaler

spending–whichshouldexceed$1tnin2027–andtheongoingbuildoutofcomputeandpowercapacity.AI-relatedspendingwillremainthedominantdriverwithinbusinessspending.

•Productivitygainsarelikely.AI,likepriorgeneral-purposetechnologies,shouldraiseoutputperworker,particularlywithorganizationalchange.

•AI-exposedindustriesareseeingacleareraccelerationinproductivity,withoutputperemployeerisingfasterin2025thaninlessexposedsectors.Thisreflectsstrongeroutputgrowthratherthanwidespreadlaborsubstitution.

•OurAIdisruptiontrackerpointstoearly,narrowlyconcentrateddisplacement,moreevidentamongyoungerworkers,whileaggregateeffectsremainmodest(atmost~10bpontheunemployment

rate),alongsidesignsofbroadertaskreallocation.

•SlowtomoderatediffusionofAIproducesmanageablelabordisplacementinthepresenceoftaskcreationandindirectwealtheffectsinourframework.Iffeedbackeffectsarestrong,evenfast

diffusionproducesamoremanageableeconomictransition

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

MorganstanleyMORGANSTANLEY

RESEARCH

MAY27,20263

AIspendingtoremainrobustdespitetheenergypriceshock

Weexpectbusinessspending,measuredbynonresidentialfixedinvestment,togrowby7.0%in2026and8.0%in2027,drivenprimarilybycontinuedstrengthinAI-relatedinvestment.AI-relatedexpendituresdisplaylittle

cyclicalvolatilityandhaveprovidedthebulkofthecontributiontogrowthfrombusinessspending.

AI-relatedspendingappearsmorestructural...whichhasledtoconsistentcontributionsto

thancyclicalGDPgrowth

ContributiontoRealGDPGrowth)pp

Al-relatedNon-Al-relatedNFl

212223242526

2惠0

1惠0

0惠0

-1惠0

ReallnvestmentLevel)Billionsof2017Dollar

Al-related(left)Non-Al-related(right)

2000

1500

1000

500

2600

2200

1800

1400

121824

Source:BEA,MorganStanleyResearch

MAY27,20264

HighhyperscalercapexestimateskeepAI'scontributiontogrowthelevated

WeexpectAIcapextobethedominantdriverofgrowthinNFIin2026and2027.Ithasbecomeastructurally

drivenmacroforcethatislesssensitivetogeopoliticaluncertaintyandtraditionalbusinesscycledynamics,

supportedbythebuildoutoffoundationalcapacityratherthannear-termdemandconditions.Evenafter

adjustingforimports,weestimatethatAI-relatedinvestmentanditsassociatedproductivityimprovementswillcontribute0.4-0.5pptogrowthin2026and2027.

AIandnon-AIbusinessinvestmentcontributionstoGDPgrowth

ContributiontoRealGDPGrowth,pp

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Nonresidentialfixedinvestment

0.90

0.14

0.75

0.99

1.18

AI-related

0.31

0.26

0.83

1.03

0.86

Non-AI-related

0.59

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.31

Imports,computers&peripherals

-0.03

-0.20

-0.68

-0.88

-0.69

DomesticAI-relatedinvestment

0.28

0.05

0.15

0.15

0.18

Productivity

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.25

AItotal

0.28

0.05

0.25

0.35

0.43

Note:AI-relatedinvestmentincludesspendingoninformationprocessingequipment,software,datacenters,andpowercenters.Remainingcategoriesaredefinedasnon-AI-relatedspending.AI-relatedimportsarecomputersandperipherals.2026and2027numbersareMorganStanleyResearchestimates.Source:BEA,HaverAnalytics,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

MAY27,20265

LessonsFromtheFiveInnovationWavesthatPrecededAI

FiveInnovationWaves

Eachsuccessiveinnovationwavehascomefasteranddiffusedmorequicklythanitspredecessor

SecondWave

FirstWave

FifthWave

FourthWave

ThirdWave

IndustrialRevolution

(late18thtomid-19th

century)

~60years

Electricity,Internal

CombustionEngine

(c.1890-1950)

~50years

Steam,Railroad,

Steel

(1830-1910)

~55years

Electronicsand

Aviation

(c.1940-1980)

40years

Internetand

Digital

(1990-2020)

~30years

Automated

Assembly

line

WorldWideWeb

SixthWave:

AI?

FactoriesEmerge

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Railways

Aviation

Morganstanley

AILaborDisruption:MoreMicrothanMacroSoFar

HowisAIaffectingthelabormarkettoday?

MorganstanleyMORGANSTANLEY

RESEARCH

MAY27,20267

CalibratingAIExposure

Toanalyzepotentiallabormarketdisruptions,weclassifyoccupationsbytheirexposuretoAIusingthe

frameworkdevelopedbyFeltenetal.(2021).Feltenandco-authorsconstructanAIexposureindexbyassessinghowtaskswithineachoccupationalignwithcurrentandanticipatedAIcapabilities.

CharacteristicsofAI-exposuregroups

LowExposure

MediumExposure

HighExposure

NumberofoccupationsinCPS

119

237

118

MedianAnnualIncome

(byOccupationExposure,asof2024)

$46,390

$56,270

$96,690

PercentofEmployeesWithatleastaBachelor'sDegree(WithinOccupations)

11%

37%

67%

Mostexposedoccupationswithingroup

Heating/ACinstallers,elevator

installers/repairers,textile

bleaching,locksmiths,

telecommunicationsequipment

installer/repairer

Architects,emergency

managementdirectors,first-line

supervisorsofadministrative

supportworkers,materials

engineers,librarians

Financialexaminers,actuaries,purchasingagents,budget

analysts,accountantsandauditors,judiciallawclerks

Mostexposedindustrieswithingroup

Foodmanufacturing,apparel

manufacturing,building

contractors,wastetreatment

anddisposal,motorvehicle

manufacturing

Writers,electronicshopping,

specialtyhospitals,electric

lightingequipment

manufacturing,realestate

Accounting/taxpreparation,

legalservices,securitiesand

commoditiescontracts,

insuranceagencies/brokerage,

creditintermediation

Source:IPUMS,Feltenetal(2021),MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

MAY27,20268

Modestsignsofdisruptionsofar

Theunemploymentratehasbeenrisingsimilarlyacrossalloccupations,butdifferentoccupationshavedifferent

cyclicality

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

UnemploymentbyAl-exposure(12-monthma)%)

18.0

lowexposuremediumhigh16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

…adjustingforcyclicality,high-exposureunemploymentrateruns~0.3pphigherthannormal.

UnemploymentratebyAl-exposure

1.0(12-monthma)pp)-cyclicaladjustmentresidual

0.8

lowexposuremediumhigh0.6

0.4

0.3

0.2——

0.00.0

-0.2

-0.4-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

202320242025

Source:IPUMS,Feltenetal(2021),MorganStanleyResearch

MAY27,20269

Youngworkerslookliketheleadingedge

Slightlymoreevidenceofdisruptionsamongyoungworkers,butmagnitudesarestillsmall.

Youngworkers(22-27yearsold)unemployment

ratebyAl-exposure

(12-monthma)%)

7惠7

7惠5

5惠6

5惠2

3惠6

2惠6

lowexposuremediumhigh

202320242025

9惠0

8惠0

7惠0

6惠0

5惠0

4惠0

3惠0

2惠0

1惠0

0惠0

It’stakinglongerforyoungworkerstofindjobsthataremoreexposedtoAI

%ofworkersremainingunemployed

(workers22-27yearsold)monthlyrate)12mma)

lowexposuremediumhigh

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

202320242025

Source:IPUMS,Feltenetal(2021),MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

MAY27,202610

Tasksarechanging

TasksarechangingmoreinAI-exposedoccupations……Zoomingoutwecanseethattheratioisapproaching

levelsclosetotheICTrevolution(late90s,early2000s)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

lowexposuremedium1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

%ofworkerschangingworkactivitiesbyoccupationexposuretoAl(12mma)

1.2%

%ofworkerschangingworkactivitiesbyoccupation1.1%exposuretoAl(12mma)

lowexposuremediumhigh1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

202320242025

Source:IPUMS,Feltenetal(2021),MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

Noticeablypositiveoutputeffectsdespitetheminimalemploymenteffects

Weexaminedindustryoutput/employee.IndustriesthataremoreexposedtoAIhaveledanaccelerationin

productivity.In2025,output/employeewasfasterandacceleratedmoreinhigh.AIindustriesthaninotherindustries.

Thepickupreflectsfasteroutputgrowthratherthanlabordisplacement.

OutputgainswereespeciallyclearamongAI.relatedindustries,likelyreflectingcapitaldeepening.Otherindustriesalsoshowedsomegains.

Highhyperscalercapexwillcontinuethecapitaldeepening.

MorganstanleyMORGANSTANLEY

RESEARCH

MAY27,202612

LaborproductivityacceleratedinindustrieswithhighAIexposure

Wefindpositivecorrelationbetweenindustry-levelAIexposureandfasterlaborproductivitygrowth.WeestimatethatindustrieswithhighAIexposurecontributed1.7ppofthe2.4ppgrowthinoutputperemployeeinthefour

quartersthrough4Q2025.Furthermore,itscontributionaccelerated:itcontributedonly0.7ppin2024.

InindustrieswithhighAIexposure,outputperemployeerosefasterin2025,andacceleratedmore,thaninother

industries

Outputperemployee,4-quarter%ch.

High-AIindustriesMid-AIindustriesLow-AIindustries

4Q

06081012141618202224

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0-10.0

-15.0

Source:BEA,BLS,MorganStanleyResearch

MAY27,202613

Themaindriverofproductivityisfasteroutputgrowth,notlabordisplacement

Wefindthatitsfastergrowthreflectedfasteroutputgrowthratherthansloweremploymentgrowth.Andthe

accelerationinoutputgrowthwasbecauseoftheindustrieswithhigh-AIexposure;outputgrowthslowedinthemid-andlow-AIaggregates.

Overallindustryoutputperemployment

acceleratedin2025becauseoffasteroutputgrowth

Allindustries:Output,employment,andproductivity,4-6.0q%ch.

5.0OutputEmploymentOutput/employment4.0

3.02.01.00.0

-1.0

-2.0

232425

Source:BEA,BLS,MorganStanleyResearch

High-AIindustryoutputandproductivity

surged,whileemploymentgrowthstagnated.

MAY27,202614

Computermanufacturingcapacityhasrisensharply

Capacitygrowthhasacceleratedfrom3.7%y/yin2024to7%y/yinJanuary-February2026.Despitethesurgeincomputeroutputoverthepastyear,capacityutilizationhasbarelyrisen,andisfairlylow,suggestingfurther

roomtorunforproductivitygrowth.

Modestincreaseincomputermanufacturingcapacityutilizationin2025,amidrapidgrowthincapacity

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

1516171819202122232425

Capacity,4-quarter%ch(left)Capacityutilization,%(right)

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

Computermanufacturing

Source:FederalReserve,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

Microevidenceonusage

About25%ofS&P500firmsareidentifyingsomefinancialorproductivitybenefitfromAIusage.

Morganstanley

Source:Alphawise,MorganStanleyResearch.N=100.MAY27,202616

TheMajorityofCIOsExpecttoHaveAIProjectsinProductionbytheEndof2026

Morganstanley

Source:MorganStanleyResearchMAY27,202617

HowAreCompaniesinDifferentSectorsAdoptingAI?

MorganstanleyMORGANSTANLEY

RESEARCH

MAY27,202618

HowisAIusageprogressing?

DiscussionsofQuantifiableBenefitsfromAIAreRising

%ofCompaniesprovidingQuantifiableAIImpact

SP500MSSurveyAdopters

2023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.Note:companiesmentioningmultiplequantifiablebenefitsfromAIareonlycountedonceinthischart.

MAY27,202619

HowisAIusageprogressing?

PercentofCompanieswithinS&P500SectorsMentioningQuantifiableAI-RelatedImpacts

%ofCompanieswithinS&P500lndustryGroupsMentioningQuantifiableAl-Relatedlmpacts

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

LabordisplacementrisksfromAI

WhatmightlessfavorablelabormarketoutcomeslooklikeifAIadoptionprovesdisruptive?

OurbaselineassumesAIdiffusesatroughlytwicethepaceoftheinternetera,boostingproductivitywithoutameaningfulriseinunemploymentortriggeringa

downturn.

Risksarehighlysensitivetodiffusionspeed:muchfaster“overnight”adoption(3–4xinternetpace)

generatessignificantdisplacement,whilenewtasks,jobcreation,andpolicyfeedbacksmeaningfully

dampentransitioncosts.

MAY27,202621

MorganstanleyMORGANSTANLEY

RESEARCH

Threeracesthatdefineourmacroframework

1.Speedofadoptionvs.labor-marketadjustment:

a)Transitionhingesonspeedmismatch:outcomesdependonwhetherAIdiffusionoutpacesthelabormarket’sabilitytoretrainandrematchworkers.

b)Fastadoption=transitionshock:front-loadeddisplacementandskillmismatchdriveunemployment,disinflationrisk,andrecession-likedynamicsdespitesimilarlong-rungains

2.Labordisplacementvs.newtaskcreation

a)Jobimpactdependsonthebalance:AIdisplacessometasksbutalsocreatesnewAI-complementaryrolesthatdrivevacanciesandlabordemand.

b)Ifcreationlagsdisplacement:unemploymentstayselevatedanddemandleaks;ifitkeepspace,absorptionisfasterandthetransitionissmoother.

3.Incomelossvs.policysupportandindirectfeedbackeffects

a)Outcomesdependonbuffers:laborincomelossesvspolicysupport,wealtheffects,andnewtaskcreationdeterminewhetherAItriggersdemandshortfallsorastabletransition.

b)Withfullfeedbackloops:policy,incomegains,andtaskcreationabsorbshocks—makingunemploymentsmaller,shorter-lived,andmoremanageable.

MorganstanleyMORGANSTANLEY

RESEARCH

MAY27,202622

WhatdoesAIdiffusionlooklike?

Theshapeoftechnologydiffusion:Asthespeeddiffusionincreases,timetofulladoptionshrinks,andthepeakannualrateofadoptionincreasesinthespeedofdiffusioninanon-linearway.

Examplesofdiffusionspeeds-frominitialtofulleconomicintegrationin:

full

adoption

Slow(lnternet)~20yrs)

Moderate(~10yrs)

Fast(~6yrs)

start

01234567891011121314151617181920

Peakdiffusionrate(%oftheeconomythatseesadoptioninayear)

25

20

15

10

5

0

Slow(lnternet)~20yrs)Moderate(~10yrs)Fast(~6yrs)

Note:Fortheleftgraph,thex-axisrepresentsyearsandthey-axisispercentoftheeconomythatisultimatelysubjecttoAIdiffusionandintegration.Intherightgraph,weshowtheshareoftheeconomythatseesAIdiffusioninagivenyearduringpeaktransition,wherethediffusioncurveisatitssteepest.Initialadoptioncanbesimilaracrossdiffusionspeeds,butthepeakdiffusionratematters

substantially.Source:MorganStanleyResearch

MAY27,202623

PotentiallabormarketdisplacementfromAIadoptiondependsondiffusionspeedandstrengthoffeedbackeffects

Slowtomoderatediffusionratesproducemanageablelabordisplacementinthepresenceoftaskcreationand

indirectwealtheffects.Iffeedbackeffectsarestrong,evenfastdiffusionproducesamoremanageableeconomictransition

Peakincreaseintheunemploymentrateunder

2.3

1.9

0.5

0.2

Nooffsets

Taskcreation)lowwealtheffect

Taskcreation)greaterwealtheffect

0.7

0.2

0.0

differentdiffusionspeedsandindirectfeedbackeffects

(ppincreaseabovethenaturalrate)

4.1

Slowdiffusion(~20yr)Moderatediffusion(~10yr)Fastdiffusion(~6yr)

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.6

Note:DifferentdiffusionspeedsareshownontheX-axis.Y-axisisppincreaseintheunemploymentrateabovethenaturalrateatpeakdiffusion.Simulatedunemploymentratepathsunderthreedifferentdiffusionspeeds–cumulativediffusionin20years,10years,and6years–assuming1)lowtaskcreationwithnowealtheffect,2)lowtaskcreationandlowwealtheffect,and3)lowtaskcreationand

moderatewealtheffect.Allscenariosassumenoactivefiscalpolicysupport,butmonetarypolicyrespondsusingaTaylorrule.Source:MorganStanleyResearch

MAY27,202624

RelatedResearch

USEconomicsMid-YearOutlook:CapexOverConsumption

AIandEconomicTransition:LessonsfromtheFiveInnovationWavesThatPrecededAI

AIandEconomicTransition:AILaborDisruption:MoreMicroThanMacroSoFar

AIandEconomicTransition:IndustrieswithhighAIexposureareseeinglaborproductivityfromfasteroutputgrowth,notlaborreplacement

AIandEconomicTransition:ExpectRhyme,NotRupture:ThePaceofAIAdoption,ProductivityGains,andLaborDisplacementRisks

MAY27,202625

Morganstanley

Disclosures

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