商贸零售行业2025年报暨2026一季报综述：曙光初现精益增长

2025年综述：出海链景气延续，商超百货呈现波动商贸零售行业2025年营收端保持稳健、扣非净利降幅收窄。20251.08万亿元/+0.2%254亿元/-13.2%204亿元/-5.7%滑，且部分公司如永辉超市因调改进入深水区产生较高的费用支出、部分公司因推进业务转型导2024图1：商贸零售行业2025年收端稳健 图2：商贸零售行业2025年利端波动0

营收(亿元) 增速202020212022202320242025

30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%

0

归母净利(亿元) 扣非净利(亿元归母净利增速 扣非净利增速2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%商贸零售行业2025年费用投放相对克制，反应追求精益增长的主旋律。202517.52%/+0.35pct1.89%/-0.12pct13.05%/+0.18pct8.99%/+0.01pct2.85%/+0.07pct0.59%/+0.1pct图3：商贸零售行业2025年利率稳定、净利率波动 图4：商贸零售行业2025年用率小幅提升5%0%

毛利率 净利率2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

8%6%4%2%0%

销售费用率 管理费用率财务费用率 研发费用率2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025分板块：跨境电商营收、净利保持较快增长，百货商超波动较高。百货商超：2025年营收增速-8.2%、归母净利增速-55.7%、扣非增速-60.6%，部分公司2024年存在较高的一次性收益如REITs收益或者重整收益等，导致净利端基数较高；此外，线下零售竞争激烈且受到互联网巨头入局线下的冲击、消费环境扰动亦导致净利端承压。专业连锁：20256.3%38.3%65.5%，主要因万辰集团净利高增，此外孩子王、博士眼镜等亦有较强表现。⚫ 跨境电商：202518.7%16.3%14.5%，2025年虽存在关税扰动但头部公司通过提价或供应链转移等方式保持较强的经营韧性。黄金珠宝：20257.5%6.2%7.5%，金价上涨的背景下行业呈现“量减价增”的特征，从渠道驱动逻辑转向产品与品牌驱动逻辑。表1：2025年商贸零售细分板块：跨境电商保持较快增长，百货商超波动较高营收(亿元)20212022202320242025同比20212022202320242025商贸零售10,84310,60511,26410,76610,79124.1%-2.2%6.2%-4.4%0.2%-百货商超3,3633,1413,0482,9082,6710.5%-6.6%-3.0%-4.6%-8.2%-专业连锁1,8651,9012,1952,0562,18532.8%1.9%15.5%-6.4%6.3%-跨境电商40844553770884135.9%9.0%20.7%31.9%18.7%-黄金珠宝1,4901,4901,7751,6731,79831.3%0.0%19.1%-5.7%7.5%归母净利(亿元)20212022202320242025同比20212022202320242025商贸零售3131803062922549.8%-42.6%70.4%-4.5%-13.2%-百货商超80157510145-0.9%-81.6%410.6%34.7%-55.7%-专业连锁221512131913.7%-30.0%-20.0%9.2%38.3%-跨境电商2730384249-13.4%12.9%23.8%11.3%16.3%-黄金珠宝5116664952146.4%-69.2%322.2%-26.1%6.2%扣非净利(亿元)20212022202320242025同比20212022202320242025商贸零售26213124921720418.7%-50.1%90.6%-13.0%-5.7%-百货商超18-8504518-33.1%-141.6%-755.7%-9.9%-60.6%-专业连锁1914991523.6%-26.4%-32.4%-0.8%65.5%-跨境电商2226333743-24.7%14.3%29.0%13.3%14.5%-黄金珠宝4713484448171.5%-72.1%265.2%-7.0%7.5%毛利率(%)20212022202320242025同比20212022202320242025商贸零售17.0415.8916.5017.1717.52-2.26-1.160.610.670.35-百货商超29.6827.8830.0929.9329.870.75-1.812.22-0.16-0.06-专业连锁5.935.875.366.847.87-0.29-0.07-0.501.481.02-跨境电商41.3042.4742.5341.3741.78-5.831.170.05-1.150.40-黄金珠宝11.9711.1810.4410.269.93-0.83-0.79-0.74-0.19-0.33净利率(%)20212022202320242025同比20212022202320242025商贸零售3.402.193.173.192.89-0.29-1.220.990.02-0.30-百货商超2.430.612.633.651.90-0.13-1.822.021.03-1.76-专业连锁1.240.860.600.871.42-0.21-0.38-0.260.270.55-跨境电商6.686.957.176.045.94-3.850.270.22-1.13-0.10-黄金珠宝3.731.404.143.273.181.56-2.332.75-0.87-0.09公司层面：出海链/跨境电商、黄金珠宝公司净利增速居前。百货商超：2025对较低的原因更易率先实现企稳及增长。黄金珠宝：金价上涨背景下行业显著分化，主打古法金、高溢价、精品化的品牌凭借文化能与工艺价值实现高增，其中老铺黄金/潮宏基/菜百股份等仍具拓店逻辑，周生生/等业务结构优化；部分公司因投资金占比较高同样实现高增。出海链跨境电商：2025好表现，其中康耐特光学因业务结构优化、高毛利率业务占比提升；绿联科技/安克创新等因品牌资产强化及核心单品高增；部分公司库存结构改善或减值计提降低。其它：β，赛道中头部公司实现高增。图5：2025年商贸零售部分公司营收、净利增速对比营收增速（%）归母净利增速（%）毛利率（%）净利率（%）20212022202320242025202120222023202420252021202220232024202520212022202320242025300972.SZ万辰集团专业连锁潮玩-5.426.41,592.0247.959.2-74.7103.7-273.7454.0358.110.816.09.310.812.45.77.6-1.61.94.79992.HK泡泡玛特78.72.836.5106.9184.763.2-44.3127.6188.8308.861.457.561.366.872.119.010.317.325.435.1301558.SZ三态股份出海链/跨境电商13.7-29.97.13.0-3.4-27.0-10.0-12.1-88.4238.5230.531.034.131.428.432.737.632.66.98.97.30.82.96181.HK老铺黄金黄金珠宝41.22.3145.7167.5221.029.4-17.0340.4253.941.241.941.941.29.07.313.117.317.80116.HK周生生46.6-6.521.7-15.36.02.518.1-29.7123.9-20.5113.225.326.426.428.32.92.24.03.87.69.2301177.SZ迪阿股份87.6-20.4-40.8-32.0131.1-44.0-90.5-23.1162.3156.770.169.868.865.565.828.219.83.23.6002345.SZ潮宏基44.2-4.733.610.543.0151.0-43.267.4-41.933.430.226.123.622.17.74.65.62.65.14.0603900.SH莱绅通灵7.9-31.1-19.766.825.1-63.1-203.3-99.2-141.9132.4126.056.455.454.233.238.22.9-4.4-10.5-15.1600738.SH丽尚国潮百货商超7.217.716.4-24.3-4.878.6-44.2-4.3-12.269.345.754.766.665.623.911.09.47.025.2003010.SZ若羽臣电商服务13.4-5.512.329.394.3-67.015.660.994.684.064.231.633.640.244.659.82.22.84.06.05.73.54.03.97.4301078.SZ孩子王专业连锁8.3-5.82.76.710.0-48.4-39.4-13.972.430.629.929.629.729.52.21.41.42.2605599.SH菜百股份黄金珠宝47.25.650.622.242.40.626.653.61.757.653.552.452.252.143.441.536.835.911.311.210.78.98.33.54.24.33.6000058.SZ深赛格百货商超42.1-8.36.6-12.2-4.578.9-66.0473.4-58.521.715.623.024.626.95.02.25.82.9301606.SZ绿联科技/跨境电商/跨境电商25.911.425.128.553.8-0.510.418.419.337.137.437.637.437.08.88.68.27.5002803.SZ吉宏股份17.43.824.5-17.421.6-1.613.1-59.3-19.187.6-47.338.440.746.743.946.94.03.25.03.35.0603708.SH家家悦百货商超4.54.3-2.32.8-168.6118.4127.0-3.323.323.323.923.323.8-2.00.10.80.71.0300622.SZ博士眼镜专业连锁35.28.422.22.337.0-20.768.9-19.164.961.863.161.760.610.67.711.28.411.310.0300792.SZ壹网壹创电商服务-12.635.6-16.3-4.0-13.25.4-44.9-40.0-29.647.633.629.324.829.331.431.713.88.46.1600415.SH小商品城出海链/跨境电商62.026.348.339.326.622.715.01.76.123.516.20.5-2.315.244.0-17.2142.314.933.315.326.531.422.014.523.719.621.2301110.SZ青木科技电商服务35.6-3.714.319.219.4-55.8-20.973.847.240.741.950.155.317.28.14.57.78.4301381.SZ赛维时代出海链/跨境电商5.9-11.833.756.5-22.9-46.881.6-36.232.231.830.220.419.218.013.811.69.262.865.645.843.842.76.23.85.12.12.43.1603101.SH汇嘉时代百货商超12.9-20.330.8-3.4223.5-397.4203.1-63.935.535.637.534.035.22.2-8.26.52.42276.HK康耐特光学/跨境电商/跨境电商24.115.112.717.142.935.431.631.033.934.537.438.642.045.113.515.918.620.825.5300866.SZ安克创新34.413.322.941.114.716.441.230.935.738.743.543.78.18.39.78.98.6300945.SZ曼卡龙黄金珠宝54.928.619.422.610.4-22.647.520.020.016.614.613.415.05.63.34.14.14.23.1600710.SH苏美达出海链/跨境电商71.1-16.3-12.9-4.740.419.412.811.73.94.95.76.86.81.42.02.52.8000715.SZ中兴商业百货商超1.1-20.116.8-5.840.1-37.056.9-25.355.155.155.956.656.615.712.416.613.215.3002315.SZ焦点科技出海链/跨境电商28.70.63.89.341.322.626.119.175.380.279.480.379.317.120.525.227.426.4002867.SZ周大生黄金珠宝80.121.446.5-14.7-36.520.9-10.920.7-23.227.320.818.120.831.413.39.88.17.212.5002419.SZ天虹股301376.SZ致欧科2026Q1综述：各板块净利均正增，景气赛道依旧强劲2026Q1营收增速稳健，归母净利增速较强劲。2026Q17.7%27%表现均较强劲，且毛利率整体稳健，净利率小幅提升且为2022Q1Q1图6：商贸零售行业2026Q1营收增速保持较好水平 图7：商贸零售行业2026Q1归母净利保持增长营收(亿元） 营收增速 归母净利(亿元) 归母净利增速0

50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%

0

200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%-300%图8：商贸零售行业2026Q1毛利率略降、净利率提升 图9：商贸零售行业2026Q1费用率处于较低水平5%0%

毛利率 净利率

8%6%4%2%0%

销售费用率 管理费用率财务费用率 研发费用率-5%

分板块：百货商超净利端有所改善，跨境电商受汇兑影响。百货商超：2026Q1营收增速-7.8%26%，营收增速仍承压或与行业竞争趋激烈及门店优化调整有关；部分公司如百联股份/永辉超市归母净利显著增长(2026Q1归母7.9/2.92025Q11.9/1.5亿元)专业连锁：2026Q128.3%89.5%，其中万辰集团/孩子王/博士眼镜均实现超30%的归母净利增长，印证部分景气赛道表现强劲。跨境电商：2026Q1营收增速18.7%、归母净利增速3.6%，我们认为出海链景气趋势仍在，Q1黄金珠宝：2026Q113.8%17.8%，我们认为“量减价增”特征延续，通过优化业务结构、聚焦门店提效及品牌势能提升等措施，行业实现精益增长。图10：跨境电商2026Q1营增速环比提升 图各板块2026Q1均实净利正增百货商超 专业连锁黄金珠宝 跨境电商

百货商超 专业连锁黄金珠宝 跨境电商60%50%40%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%表2：2026Q1商贸零售细分板块：商超百货净利端修复，跨境电商受汇兑影响营收(亿元)2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1同比2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1商贸零售2,7762,9943,0092,7052,9145.0%7.8%0.5%-10.1%7.7%-百货商超923864834767707-1.6%-6.4%-3.6%-8.0%-7.8%-专业连锁4955556015246727.1%12.2%8.3%-12.8%28.3%-跨境电商84108137177210111.6%28.9%26.3%29.4%18.7%-黄金珠宝4405455944425049.6%23.9%9.1%-25.6%13.8%归母净利(亿元)2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1同比2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1商贸零售109.72115.36112.2598.03124.526.2%5.1%-2.7%-12.7%27.0%-百货商超48.2953.4347.0939.3349.5410.5%10.7%-11.9%-16.5%26.0%-专业连锁4.444.363.634.668.82-2.3%-1.7%-16.9%28.4%89.5%-跨境电商4.817.408.6010.5910.9753.9%53.9%16.2%23.2%3.6%-黄金珠宝15.9718.2220.3116.2519.13-6.6%14.1%11.5%-20.0%17.8%毛利率(%)2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1同比2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1商贸零售17.4316.5716.8318.0417.7417.43-0.860.271.20-0.30-百货商超29.3930.5330.6329.9030.4429.391.140.10-0.730.55-专业连锁5.985.235.677.197.535.98-0.750.451.510.34-跨境电商42.6244.9542.7641.2642.1742.622.33-2.19-1.500.91-黄金珠宝11.5210.229.4911.3011.2011.52-1.30-0.721.81-0.10净利率(%)2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1同比2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1商贸零售4.454.324.214.224.904.45-0.12-0.110.010.67-百货商超5.616.646.085.707.885.611.03-0.56-0.382.18-专业连锁0.950.850.811.271.900.95-0.11-0.030.460.63-跨境电商5.876.906.306.135.295.871.03-0.60-0.17-0.84-黄金珠宝3.983.783.854.124.093.98-0.200.070.27-0.03公司层面：与2025年相比，2026Q1归母净利正增的公司明显增加，多个子板块均有佼佼者。百货商超：部分公司如永辉超市/家家悦/汇嘉时代等调改成效显现，百联股份因土地收储等因素获得一次性收益，富森美因参投企业上市获得公允价值投资收益。出海链跨境电商：Q1受汇兑损失影响，我们认为华凯易佰因库存改善、通拓整等因素实现高增，绿联科技同样表现强劲，小商品城/20-25%(24%同样表现亮眼)黄金珠宝：Q1202562/74%一文化/莱绅通灵/迪阿股份/飞亚达/35%其它：图12：2026Q1商贸零售部分公司营收、净利增速对比营收增速()归母净利增速()毛利率()净利率()证券代码证券简称2025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12024Q12025Q12026Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1600790.SH轻纺城/跨境电商/跨境电商-5.321.9-12.1-36.54.0-46.811.8-107.9-124.51,079.850.537.927.825.814.5157.1300592.SZ华凯易佰35.123.3-15.2-17.7-16.1-118.4-1.4-76.9608.9574.036.531.535.94.8-0.73.8002127.SZ南极电商电商服务2.0-25.9-25.0-36.0-31.3-128.5-9.7223.2-11.5339.514.913.014.16.6-1.66.5301110.SZ青木科技电商服务21.323.833.714.225.1-58.6-2.9439.7137.2320.548.852.354.79.83.512.3600827.SH百联股份百货商超-14.0-10.7-10.0-5.4-8.90.146.9-101.3742.7310.824.624.624.13.35.312.3002721.SZ金一文化黄金珠宝14.8317.167.7232.854.6-892.847.5-412.2378.2261.620.227.336.92.1-14.512.8300972.SZ万辰集团专业连锁124.093.344.227.253.73,344.14,940.3361.2133.8193.19.811.012.91.43.65.8003010.SZ若羽臣电商服务54.279.6123.4111.473.3113.971.773.287.0163.824.653.964.73.44.87.3002818.SZ富森美百货商超-13.2-9.8-20.3-21.6-21.7-21.111.7-22.9-45.8162.068.770.063.850.946.3267.5605136.SH丽人丽妆电商服务-23.6-4.832.62.815.1-91.9-218.087.8-1,380.9156.431.838.842.5-2.1-5.22.5601933.SH永辉超市百货商超-19.3-22.6-25.5-15.0-23.5-80.015.8-32.9-32.894.422.921.522.83.30.82.1603900.SH莱绅通灵黄金珠宝53.227.033.3-3.0-2.2251.0276.3190.993.288.841.241.047.8-7.87.614.7301177.SZ迪11.2-1.9-11.4-29.71,547.9310.111.381.465.863.568.66.95.110.1000061.SZ21.0-31.3-18.5-9.8-11.9-27.454.380.931.722.025.710.56.913.0301606.SZ绿联科技出海链/跨境电商42.039.460.467.753.447.218.767.369.258.139.638.039.37.98.18.5301078.SZ孩子王专业连锁9.57.87.015.22.5166.064.628.177.156.829.926.328.50.71.42.5000026.SZ飞亚达黄金珠宝-13.2-15.0-7.5-7.57.0-40.0-48.2-15.7-265.943.636.335.134.47.14.96.6002345.SZ潮宏基黄金珠宝25.413.149.585.810.944.444.3-116.5247.339.524.922.926.97.38.410.6300945.SZ曼卡龙黄金珠宝42.915.736.2-15.9-15.333.537.425.3-35.032.817.215.826.86.46.09.5300622.SZ博士眼镜专业连锁10.218.125.4-2.78.320.5-5.52.2201.732.259.058.158.08.59.511.7601366.SH利群股份百货商超-5.1-0.1-8.6-22.2-22.1-58.2-75.855.0-23,671.331.631.430.033.80.50.10.2603214.SH爱婴室专业连锁6.69.915.15.83.56.110.92.4-50.227.924.923.825.00.91.11.3605599.SH菜百股份黄金珠宝30.250.319.970.873.617.39.221.9194.824.610.08.37.14.34.02.8600415.SH小商品城出海链/跨境电商17.911.439.034.045.312.720.8100.50.223.339.136.233.826.525.421.6002803.SZ吉宏股份出海链/跨境电商11.655.525.03.122.138.299.656.429.522.340.645.646.93.04.25.4600916.SH中国黄金黄金珠宝-39.718.928.473.239.5-63.0-20.2-89.4-181.621.74.15.62.72.01.21.1601888.SH中国中免百货商超-11.0-8.5-0.42.81.0-16.0-32.2-28.953.621.233.333.033.612.912.314.0300792.SZ壹网壹创电商服务-12.1-16.1-11.3-12.6-14.1-11.219.1-0.6148.620.732.328.632.510.410.514.7002867.SZ周大生黄金珠宝-47.3-38.5-16.7-33.7-26.9-26.131.313.642.716.415.626.239.46.79.415.0600693.SH东百集团百货商超0.6-0.47.50.02.85.1-0.75.9-0.813.755.958.057.212.413.414.6603101.SH汇嘉时代百货商超3.01.3-1.13.44.650.5195.448.2-143.313.333.534.933.55.47.88.5000829.SZ天音控股专业连锁-14.4-3.95.070.630.4-279.0-452.7-51.0240.511.02.72.72.60.1-0.1-0.1002187.SZ广百股份百货商超8.5-62.4-40.2-57.0-62.0-9.4-704.0-148.1-1,224.07.822.518.041.71.71.43.9603708.SH家家悦百货商超-4.8-2.6-3.95.82.2-3.682.624.391.17.024.024.324.02.92.93.0600710.SH苏美达出海链/跨境电商8.0-8.54.20.620.89.615.36.673.45.66.16.25.82.82.92.4600697.SH欧亚集团百货商超0.40.3-6.7-9.6-6.4-74.61,204.90.7-53.05.537.535.537.52.22.02.5600738.SH丽尚国潮百货商超-8.5-9.7-4.14.5-0.8-7.8131.64.5237.64.368.069.569.031.532.334.9600814.SH杭州解百百货商超-6.2-5.21.5-1.23.8-29.6-13.2-11.6345.14.279.376.977.538.729.829.5600694.SH大商股份百货商超-8.0-5.4-12