瑞银-中国股票策略：萌芽初现？-China Equity Strategy Green shoots emerging-20260604

婚§ +86-21-38664873婚§2 PEofMag6PEofMag6relativetothemarketHYcreditspreadHYcreditspreadwellbehavedConsensusS&P5002026EPSRevisionsUShyperscalercapexasConsensusS&P5002026EPSRevisionsSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§3Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§4OnshoremutualfundholdingsinAshareelectronicsCrowdingscoresvsperformanceofpopularChinaAInamesOnshoremutualfundholdingsinAsharetelecomandelectronicsTMTturnoveras%oftotalAshareturnover(30DMA)Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§5ChinaAInamessharepriceperformanceChinaAInamesforwardP/ESource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§64Gindexsharepriceperformance4GindexforwardP/E5Gindexsharepriceperformance5GindexforwardP/ESource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§7CumulativeforeignCumulativeforeignnetinflowsintoEMequities(ex-China)CumulativeforeignnetinflowsintoKorea(blue)andTaiwanequitiesSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§8US10YtreasuryyieldhasbeenrisingCorrelationofselectedpopularChinaAIhardwarenamesandNYSESemiconductorIndexSource:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimatesChinaAItechhardwareearningsYoYvssharepricequarterlychangeForwardP/E-ChinavsUSAItechhardware婚§9 Oilpriceshigherforlonger(UBSe)–globaloilinventoryUBSpowerandcapexdemandgrowthforecastsRecentgovernmentinitiativesContractliabilityas%ofrevenueSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§10 婚§11Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§12Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSa§ ForwardForwardmarginChinavsGlobal–Sharepriceperformance-ChinavsglobalForwardROE–ChinavsGlobalForwardPE–ChinavsGlobalSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§14ChinaindustrialenterpriseChinaindustrialenterpriseprofitYoYChinaretailsalesYoYChinaexportYoYSecondarySecondarypropertysalesYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimatesa§ Domesticexcavatorandheavy-dutytrucksalesYoYCateringretailsalesYoYCapexintentionsimproving–Ashareex-fincapexYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§16 a§ChinaaverageChinaaverageretailgasolineprice(RMB/L)ShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndexChinachemicalpriceindexEstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/dSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,MinistryofTransport,UBS a§ContainerthroughputYoYChinaweeklyflightsYoYInternationalfreightflightYoYPostaldeliveryvolumesYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,MinistryofTransport,UBS a§AshareAsharenon-financialstrailingearningsgrowthvsPPIYoYExporterstrailingrevenuegrowthvsPPIYoYSource:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimatesAsharenon-financialstrailingearningsgrowthvsBrentoilYoYExporterstrailingearningsgrowthvsPPIYoY 婚§20Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§21HSTECHsectorweightingmixHSTECHFY26earningsrevisioninthepast12MHSTECHvsUSSoftwareQuarterlysouthboundflowsvscapitalraisingSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§22QuarterlyearningsgrowthtrendCapexYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSMargintrend1Q26earningsgrowthbysector 婚§23Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§24Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§25EarningsgrowthSource:Wind,UBSRevenueYoY 婚§26CorrelationwithMSCIACWorldCSI300vsA-sharemarketturnoverA-shareequityriskpremiumvsS&P500A-sharemoreresilientamidglobaluncertaintySource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§27Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS婚§28 AsharequarterlyAsharequarterlyearningsgrowthCSI300monthlyearningsrevisions(2014-26F)NBSindustrialprofitgrowthandA-shareindustrial-relatedsectors’earningsgrowthChinaPPIvsA-sharenon-financialsrevenuegrowthSource:Source:Go-goal,Wind,FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§29TrailingROEtrendsA-HpremiumValuation(Chinext,CSI300)DividendyieldminusgovernmentbondyieldSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§30HSTECHforwardP/EFY2612-monthconsensusearningsrevisionbreakdownforHSTECHSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSHSTECHsharepriceperformanceHSTECHvsUSsoftwarecompanies a§HouseholddepositYoYvsSSEHouseholddepositYoYvsSSECompositePrivatehedgefunds:numberofregistration&scaleNBFIdepositYoYvsSSECompositeMonthlymutualfundnewfundraisingSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§32Southboundnetinflowsminusequityraising(quarterly)OnshoremutualfundholdingofH-sharesInsurers’holdingofstocksA-sharenewretailinvestoraccountopeningsatSSESource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§33 婚§34QuarterlynorthboundnetinflowsHKshortsellingturnoveras%oftotal(7DMA)Source:Source:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBSCumulativenetinflowsintoEMex-ChinaequitiesTop40globalinvestorpositioninginChineseequity(%ofportfolio) a§SelectedmutualfundpositioninginChineseequityTop40globalinvestorpositioningSelectedmutualfundpositioninginChineseequityActivelymanagedfunds'ChineseequityholdingsvsbenchmarksForeignnetinflowsintoEMequitiesoutsideoftheChinaregionSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§36Source:FactSet,UBS a§MSCIChinaforwardP/EMSCIChinatrailingdividendyieldMSCIChinaforwardP/ErelativetoMSCIACWorldMSCIChinaforwardFCFyieldSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS a§Source:FactSet,UBSestimates a§Source:FactSet,UBSestimates 婚§40Outputprice2025Capacityoutlookfor2026Outputpriceexpectation2026A-sharenon-financialscapexYoYSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS婚§41 ChinaPPIYoYvsMSCIChinarevenuegrowthAsharenon-financialsprofitgrowthvssalarygrowthBottom-uppricingtrends–ChinaairfareimprovingA-sharecompaniesaveragewagegrowthSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§42JapanSpringwagenegotiation(Shuntou)monthlyavgwageincreaserateJapanunemploymentrateandlaborparticipationJapanfiscaldeficitPPIvscommoditypricesSource:Bloomberg,Wind,FactSet,UBS 婚§43Source:Datastream,UBSestimates婚§44 %oftotalenergyconsumption%oftotalelectricitygenerationSource:EnergyResearchInstitute,UBS 婚§45Source:UBSestimates,FactSet.Note:Valuesaremarket-capweighted.婚§46a§ 12-MonthRatingDefinition254%24%40%21%6%21%a§ 12-monthrating28,18ZijinMiningGroup-H2,婚§49婚§50 a§