【高盛】Top Projects 2026：AI、勘探、全球页岩及能源资本支出浪潮

shale(drillingefficiency).2.Explorationsucces$60+/bbl...TopProjectsreservelife,byyearofreportand一一$60-S70Exhibit4:ExplorationsuccearlysignsofrevivalwithdiscoverTotalreservesdiscoveredbyyear,basedMonthlyrollingcorrelation(r)betDiscoveredoilandgasresourcesasa%of2025reportedprovedsteepenedovertheTopProjectscostcurveofpre-plateauoilprojExhibit6:UAEexitingOPEYoYliquidsproductiongrowth(kboe/d)fromnon-OPECandex-Russia,t2wave...TopprojectsShaleyoygSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalsurprisecapexsurprise20Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalCumulativepeakproductSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:IEAWEI(historicals),GoldmaNon-OPECgrowth:Under0TopProjectswinners:BigOilsleadershiprestoredMethodology:TopProjects2026capturesc.50%ofindustryproductiona60%ofglobalprodu60%ofglobalprodu---%globaloilprod.(RH)Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchAfteryearsofdemandingcperformance(r=+0.80),whiletherelationshipwithshHighercapex=higherreturnsSource:LSEGData&Analytics,Goldma39.5%39.5%Exhibit33:Thecapex-return?Commodityboom-CalcasieuPass2,RioGrandeT4-5andWoods2025(GSe)capexsurprise2027-28...Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchdeepwater...—oil(nc.heavyoil,deepwate,traditional,explotation,ex.Russia)——Naturalgas(incl.LNG,traditional,ex.RussSource:GoldmanSachsGlobal2020,butstill25%belowthSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalBrazilandUAEsupportpeaknon-OPECproductiongrowthin2027,deceleratiWeexpectnon-OPEC(exExhibit42:Inaddition,weseeameaningfulcontSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalFollowingadecadeofrforthemarginalquartile(from$67/blin202thisyear,whileaddinCumulativepeakoilproshaleandWestAfrica10,00015,00020Exhibit47:>75%ofthecurrentCumulativepeakoilprCumulativepeakoilproductionforSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchandshouldsupportcostrationalizatio SeaHerfindahlIndex(DeepwatHerfindahlIndex(Deepwat25.0%sands...Capexperbarrelsofreserves(Sbb)1yrfwd2yrfwd1yrfwd2yrfwd1yforwardshowsTopProjectsactualproductproductionvsourforecastsfor2015-25inthe2015-25TopProactualproductionvsourforeca---Globalgastightness:Thenextwaveofprojectshasstartedtorampupin2025AwaveofnewLNGFIDsin25/26ESource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch980Exhibit70:...withQatar,MozambiqueanSource:GoldmanSachsExhibit72:ProfitabiliExhibit72:Profitabiliprojects'profitabilshale/LNGandpre-FIDwSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchBreakevenpricesacrossdifferentwinzonesincreaplace...Exhibit75:In2026regionalbreakeven①accountedforthebulkofthegiantdisc2021-20232024-20twoyears(operationaldelivery)a5%AveragingtheresultsacExhibit82:Short-cycleprojectShortSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalGrowthmap:KeyprojectsthatdriveoilgrowtJan-26BarossaSantosAustralia2021Jan-26CorpusChristStage3CorpusChristStage3-Train4CheniereEnergyUS2022UnderdeJan-26二CorpusChristiStage3CorpusChristiStage3-Train5二CheniereEnergyUS2022Underdevelopment1.43Sep-30CorpusChristiStage3CorpusChristiStage3-Train6二CheniereEnergWoodsideLouisianaLNGTraJan-26二CorpusChristiStage3CorpusChristiStage3-Train7二CheniereEnergyUS2022二Underdevelopment二1.43二Dec-30二Fob-26CongoLNGTrain2ENICongo2022Underdevelopment240二Dec-30GoldenPassLNGGoldenPass-Train1二QatSabinePassQxpansionSabin7ChenioreEnorgyJu-26CostaAzulLNGSempraEnergyMexico2020Underdevelopment二3.30DDeC-26CapLopezLNGPerencoGabon2023Underdevelopment0.70Dec-30二 Jan-27GoldenPassLNGGoldenPass-Train2QatarpetroleumUS2019Underdevelopment6.00Jan-27ScarboroughLNGWoodsideAustralia2021Underdevelopment5.00May-27NorthFieldEastLNGExpansionTrain10otarPetclota12021Underdevelopment8.00PortAthurLNGWoodsideLouislanaLNGTrain3二Jul-27WoodfibrePacifcEnergyCanada2023UnderdeveJu1-27RioGrandeLNGT1-3RioGrandeTrain1NexDecadeUS2023二UnderNigeriaLNGTrain7NDec-27SouthemEnergyFLNGFLNG1-HiliYPFArgentina2025Underdevelopment2452028。NorthFieldEastLNGExpansionTrain2QatarPetroloumLNGCanadaLNGCanadJan-2BGoldenPassLNGGoldenPass-Train3二Qatarpetroleum二US2019Underdevelopment6.00Jan-2BSatuFLNGPFLNG3PetronasMalaysia2022Underdevelopment二2.00二DelinLNGMar-28RioGrandeLNGT1-3RioGrandeTrain2NextDecadeUS2023Underdevelopment5.40Apr-28CorpusChristiTR8-9二CorpusChristiStage3-Train8二Apr-28CorpusChristiTR8-9二CorpusChristiStage3-Train8二CheniereEnergyUS2025UnderdevelopmJul-28PortAthurLNGTrain2SempraEnergyUS2023UnderdevelopmentSep-2BNorthFieldEastLNGExpansionTrain3QatarPetroleum二Qatar2021UnderdeveloomentOct-28CorpusChristiTR8-9二CorpusChristStage3-Train9ChenilereEnergyUS二2025Underdevelopment2.50 Oct-28CalcasieuPass2LNGCP2Phase1二VentureGlobal,Inc.US2025Oct-28MarsaLNGTOTAL0man2024UnderDec-28二RioGrandeLNGT1-3RioGrandeTrain3NextDecade二US2023Underdevelopment5.40DelfinLSouthemEnergyFLNGFLNG2-FujYPFJan-29CedarLNGPermbinaNorthFieldEastLNGExpansion二Train4二QatarJun-29二ArcticLNG-2Train3Jul-29CoralFLNGNorth二Coral-AgulhaFLNG2ENI二Jul-29RuwaisLNGJu-29RuwalsLNGTraln2Oct-29CalcasieuPass2LNGCP2Phase2二VentureGlobal,Inc.USDe0-29二MozambiqueLNGGolfinho-AtumTrain1二TOTALMozambiqueDec-29WoodsideLouisianaLNGWoodsideUSDe0-29二MozambiqueLNGGolfinho-AtumTrain1二TOTALMozambique DeC-29CalcasieuPass2LNGSep-28PlaqueminesLNGExpansionPhase1VentureGlobal,Inc.USProjectFIDs:Re-ignitionofFIDs,supportedbythereturnofenergyExhibit86:Projects/phasesexpectedtEIk-AntilopeTrain2UnderdevelopmentUnderdevelopmentUnderdevelopmentUnderdevelopmentUnderdevelopmentUnderdevelopmentPre-Sanction20BlockGBlockSK310B-14Malaysia RevitBarracuda-CarBlock52SurinameSurinameBlock52SurinameSurinameWaha(NorthGialo&NC-ArgentinaLNG000000000000000000000000990000000000000040000000000770000000000 00 Exhibit87:Projects/phasesexpectedtoSangomarWaha(NorthGialo&NC-Bumerangue-FPSO2000000000000000070000000012020321902032108203222520317520324420322152032252033152203224720311720311720311002032552032552030WaterHandlingWaterHandling*Non-covered/coveragesuspended/privatecompanies