世界银行-马尔代夫发展更新2026 年 6 月 Maldives Development Update,June 2026

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MALDIVESDEVELOPMENTUPDATE

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June2026

MaldivesDevelopmentUpdate

June2026THEWORLDBANK

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Preface

TheMaldivesDevelopmentUpdate(MDU)hastwomaingoals.First,ittakesthepulseoftheMaldivianeconomybyoutliningkeydevelopmentsoverthepast12months.Placingtheseinaglobalcontext,andbasedontheserecentdevelopments,theMDUthenanalyzestheoutlookoverthemediumterm.Second,everyothereditionoftheMDUprovidesamorein-depthinvestigationofselectedeconomicandpolicyissues.Ithasawideaudience,includingpolicymakers,policyanalystsfromthinktanksornongovernmentalorganizations,andbusinessandfinancialsectorprofessionalsinterestedintheeconomicdevelopmentofMaldives.

ThereportwaspreparedbasedonpublisheddataavailableonorbeforeMay15,2026.DatasourcesincludetheWorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFund,MinistryofFinanceandPlanning,MaldivesMonetaryAuthority,MaldivesBureauofStatistics,MinistryofTourismandEnvironment,andpressreports.

Previousreporteditions:

•October2025:MaldivesDevelopmentUpdate

/entities/publication/f627bfbe-6bc1-41db-a8fa-0ad6857bf81e

•April2025:MaldivesDevelopmentUpdate

/entities/publication/57fb0365-2b75-44c0-9962-cba68da6e93a

•October2024:MaldivesDevelopmentUpdate:SeekingStabilityinTurbulentTimes

/entities/publication/44b2ff24-f864-4065-aee7-fc03b21b9fe8

•May2024:MaldivesDevelopmentUpdate:ScalingBackandRebuildingBuffers

/entities/publication/acbc24eb-8fc1-4b94-8492-a41e4e41dd2f

ToreceivetheMDUandrelatedpublicationsbyemail,pleaseemail

infomaldives@.

Forquestionsand

comments,pleaseemail

rcheng@

and

eatas@.

ForinformationabouttheWorldBankanditsactivitiesinMaldives,pleasevisit:

/en/country/maldives

@WorldBank,

@WBMaldives,

followhashtag

#MDUS

M26

/WorldBankSouthAsia

/worldbank/

/company/the-world-bank

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Abbreviations

ADF

AirportDevelopmentFee

BML

BankofMaldives

CAD

CurrentAccountDeficit

CG

CentralGovernment

CPI

ConsumerPriceIndex

DPT

DepartureTax

DSA

DebtSustainabilityAnalysis

FDI

ForeignDirectInvestment

FX

ForeignExchange

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

GST

GoodsandServicesTax

HIES

HouseholdIncomeandExpenditureSurvey

MDU

MaldivesDevelopmentUpdate

MMA

MaldivesMonetaryAuthority

MoFPE

MinistryofFinanceandPublicEnterprises

MoTE

MinistryofTourismandEnvironment

MRR

MinimumReserveRequirement

MVR

MaldivianRufiyaa

NBS

NationalBureauofStatistics

NPL

NonperformingLoan

OFC

OtherFinancialCorporation

OMO

OpenMarketOperation

PPG

PublicandPubliclyGuaranteed

PPP

PurchasingPowerParity

PSIP

PublicSectorInvestmentProgram

RBI

ReserveBankofIndia

SBI

StateBankofIndia

SDF

SovereignDevelopmentFund

SOE

State-OwnedEnterprise

TGST

TourismGoodsandServicesTax

US$

USDollar

y-o-y

YearonYear

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TableofContents

Preface ii

Abbreviations iii

TableofContents iv

EXECUTIVESUMMARY 6

A1.ECONOMICUPDATE 8

1.Economicgrowthremainedrobustin2025withinflationarypressureselevated 8

2.Householdwelfareisvulnerabletorecentpriceshocksandfurtherthreatenedbyasustainedconflictin

theMiddleEast 10

3.Fiscalbalancesimprovedin2025,drivenbyrevenueperformancebutalsoliquiditychallenges,whichwas

accompaniedbyincreasedexpenditurearrearsandfiscalrisks 12

4.Publicdebtandexternaldebtservicingpressurescontinuetoincrease 13

5.FXpositionimprovedwithrobusttourismandafavorablecurrentaccountin2025,yetexternalpressures

remain 14

6.MMAandbankingsectorexposuretothesovereigncontinuedtoincrease 17

A2.OUTLOOKANDRISKS 20

1.Growthisforecasttodecline,inflationtorise,andfiscalandexternaldeficitstoremainhighin2026 20

2.Downsideriskstotheoutlookremainhigh 22

3.Implementingafiscaladjustmentremainsanurgentpriority 22

LISTOFFIGURES

FigureA.1:RealGDPgrowthstayedrobustin2025 9

FigureA.2: astouristarrivalsincreased,buttheaveragedurationofstaydeclined..............................................9

FigureA.3:Headlineinflationlargelyincreasedin2025 10

FigureA.4: drivenbyanincreaseinfood,fish,andtobaccoprices.....................................................................10

FigureA.5:Nearlyhalfofthepopulationisatriskofpoverty 11

FigureA.6:Impactoffoodpriceshocksonpovertyandthoseatriskofpoverty–atollsvs.Malé 11

FigureA.7:Growthinrevenuesdrivenbytourism 13

FigureA.8:Expenditurefellonacashbasis,largelyduetocentralgovernment’scapitalinvestmentcuts 13

FigureA.9:PPGdebtcontinuedtogrowin2025,albeitataslowerpace,followingthereducedfiscaldeficit.14

FigureA.10:Externaldebtserviceneedsarehighin2026 14

FigureA.11:CADnarrowedin2025 16

FigureA.12: astourismrevenuesincreased…...........................................................................................................16

FigureA.13: andimportsdeclined,mainlydrivenbyareductioninconstruction-relatedgoodsandtransport

equipment 16

FigureA.14: whileFXreservesrecoveredfromalowbase,recentdebtpaymentshavesignificantlydrawn

downreserves 16

FigureA.15:Growthinnetdomesticassetscontributedtobroadmoneygrowth 18

FigureA.16: whileexposureofthefinancialsectortothesovereignandSOEsincreasedfurther...................18

FigureA.17:Privatecreditgrowthpickedupsharply 19

FigureA.18: alongsideariseindepositgrowth.........................................................................................................19

FigureA.19:RealGDPgrowthwilldeclinein2026andbouncebackin2027 21

FigureA.20:Inflationisexpectedtospikein2026andremainelevated 21

FigureA.21:Thefiscaldeficitandpublicdebtareprojectedtoriseintheabsenceoffiscalreforms 22

FigureA.22:TheCADisexpectedtoexpandsharplyandremainelevateduntilfiscalreformsmaterialize 22

LISTOFTABLES

TableA.1:Medium-termprojections 20

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LISTOFANNEXES

Annex1:BalanceofPayments(percentofGDP) 24

Annex2:KeyFiscalIndicators(percentofGDP) 25

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ExecutiveSummary

Growthpickedupin2025butisexpectedtomoderatesharplyin2026.RealGDPgrewbyanestimated6.3percentin2025,drivenbystrongtouristarrivalsandarecoveryinfishexports.However,growthisprojectedtodeclinesharplyto0.7percentin2026,reflectingsignificantdisruptionstotourismfromtheconflictintheMiddleEastduetoflightcancellations,compoundedbyhigherfuelpricesandtighterfinancingconditions.Areboundto6.7percentisprojectedin2027,contingentonarecoveryintouristarrivalstopre-conflictlevelsbythefourthquarterof2026.

Headlineinflationacceleratedin2025andisexpectedtoremainelevatedoverthemediumterm.

Consumerpriceinflationincreasedfrom1.4percent(y-o-y)in2024toanaverageof4.0percent(y-o-y)in2025,drivenbysignificantincreasesinfood,fish,andtobaccoprices.Elevatedinflationisexpectedtodisproportionatelyaffecthouseholdsintheatolls,wheremostofthepoorreside.Theprovisionofsubsidiesonawiderangeofitemshelpedcontainfurtherinflationarypressures.Inflationisprojectedtoriseto6percentin2026,reflectinghigherglobalcommodityprices,andtoremainabove4percentthrough2028duetointensifiedforeignexchange(FX)constraintsanddemandpressuresforfoodandessentialgoods.

HouseholdwelfareisvulnerabletorecentpriceshocksandfurtherthreatenedbysustainedconflictintheMiddleEast.TheMaldivianeconomy'sdependenceonimportsmeansthatpriceshockstranslatequicklyintowelfarelosses:a10percentincreaseinfoodpricesalonewouldraisethepovertyrateby1.6percentagepoints.AsaresultoftheMiddleEastshock,povertyisestimatedtohaveincreasedby0.5percentagepointsandvulnerabilitytopovertyby1.5percentagepoints,drivenbyadeclineintherealvalueoflaborandnon-laborincome.

Thefiscalbalanceimprovedin2025duetosharpcutsincapitalexpenditure,butstructuralvulnerabilitiespersist.Theoverallfiscalaccountin2025recordedadeficitofMVR5.1billion(US$332.9million)or4.3percentofGDP,comparedtoadeficitofMVR10.8billion(US$700.4million)or9.9percentofGDPin2024.Revenuecollectionincreasedby12percent(y-o-y)to33percentofGDPin2025,drivenbyrobusttourism-relatedrevenuesandnon-taxrevenues.Totalexpendituredeclinedby8.3percent(y-o-y),largelyduetoa48.9percent(y-o-y)fallincapitalexpenditureonacashbasis.However,thiscompressionincashoutlayshasreportedlynotbeenmatchedbyareductionincommitments.ThismayhaveresultedinanincreaseinexpenditurearrearsandtherehavebeenreportsoffinancialdifficultiesacrosssectorsandState-OwnedEnterprises(SOEs)

.1

Lookingahead,thefiscaldeficitisprojectedtoriseto10.9percentofGDPin2026,drivenbyweakertourismrevenuesandhighersubsidies,andtoremainelevatedataround9.6percentofGDPin2027–28.

TotalPPGdebtisonanupwardtrajectory,andMaldivesremainsathighriskofbothexternalandoveralldebtdistress

2

.Totalpublicandpubliclyguaranteed(PPG)debtreachedanestimated129.7percentofGDPin2025.Externaldebt(includingguaranteeddebt)remainedatUS$4.1billion(52.9percentofGDP)in2025Q4,slightlyhigherthanUS$4.0billion(57.4percentofGDP)in2024Q4.Domesticdebt(includingguaranteeddebt)rosetoUS$6.0billion(76.8percentofGDP)in2025Q4fromUS$5.4billion(76percentofGDP),reflectingincreasingrelianceondomesticresourcestofinancefiscaldeficitsamidconstrainedexternal

1

/71463;https://en.sun.mv/98274

2AsnotedinthelastDebtSustainabilityAssessment(DSA,2025).

/view/journals/002/2024/106/article-A003-en.xml

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financing.Publicdebtisprojectedtoexceed140percentofGDPoverthemediumterm,reaching140.5percentin2027and143.2percentin2028intheabsenceofmajorfiscalconsolidation.

Financingneedsremainsignificantwhilesourcesremainconstrained,withincreasingfinancialsectorexposuretothesovereign.DespiterepaymentsofthesovereignSukukofUS$500millionandthecurrencyswapofUS$400millioninApril2026,remainingexternaldebtserviceneedsareestimatedataroundUS$600millionforthisyear.FitchRatingsupgradedMaldives'Long-TermForeign-CurrencyIssuerDefaultRatinginJunegivenreducedimminentdefaultrisksfollowingthecountry'ssuccessfulSukukrepayment.However,financingsourcesremainconstrained,limitedtoselectedbilaterals,costlycommercialloans,anddomesticbankingsectorborrowing.Banks,otherfinancialcorporations,andtheMMAareexposedtothesovereignandSOEdebtat40,66,and42percentoftheirtotalassets,respectively,asatend-2025,comparedto36,67,and50percentoftotalassets,respectively,asatend-2024,creatingasignificantsovereign-banknexusthatamplifiesfiscalandfinancialstabilityrisks.

Thecurrentaccountdeficit(CAD)narrowedsignificantlyin2025butisexpectedtowidenin2026.

Supportedbyarecoveryinfishexports(up63.8percenty-o-yin2025)andamoderatedeclineingoodsimports(down0.5percenty-o-y),themerchandisetradedeficitmoderatelynarrowedtoUS$3.2billionin2025fromUS$3.3billionin2024.Travelsectorreceipts,whichaccountfor95percentofservicesexports,experiencedsolidgrowthof16.4percent(y-o-y)in2025.Asaresult,theCADisestimatedtohavenarrowedsharplyto7.5percentofGDPin2025,from21.2percentin2024.However,theCADisexpectedtowidento20.6percentofGDPin2026,drivenbyreducedtourismreceiptsandhigherimportcosts,beforegraduallyeasinginthefollowingyears.

FXreserveshaverecoveredmarginallyfromcriticallylowlevels,butFXliquiditypressuresremainsignificant.Withsupportfrombilaterals,FXregulationsforthetourismsector,robusttourismperformanceandtourism-relatedrevenuereforms,officialreservesincreasedtoUS$1.3billion(2.6monthsofimportsofgoodsandservices)inMarch2026,fromahistoriclowofUS$371.2millioninSeptember2024(0.8monthsofimports).However,theydeclinedsharplytoUS$717.9million(1.4monthsofgoodsandservices)inApril2026followingSukukandcurrencyswaprepayments.FXliquidityconstraintshavebeenintensifyingasreflectedinthewideningparallelexchangeratepremium.Inresponse,theMaldivesMonetaryAuthority(MMA)reducedminimumreserverequirementsforforeigncurrencydepositsfrom7.5to5.0percentinJuly2025.Lookingahead,debtservicerepaymentsanddeteriorationinthecurrentaccountduetotheconflictintheMiddleEast,areexpectedtosustainpressureonreservesintheshorttomediumterm.

Downsiderisksaresevere.ProlongedconflictintheMiddleEastposesthemostimmediateexternalrisk,withthepotentialtofurtherdisrupttourismflows,strainsupplychains,anddriveupthecostofessentialimportsincludingfuel,food,andmedicine,worseningliquidityconditions.Theriskofafiscalordebtsustainabilityshockremainshigh.Fiscalrisksarealsocompoundedbyguaranteedandon-lentloans,tradepayables,subsidies,andcapitalinjectionstoSOEs.ReservescoverageremainslimitedandFXpressuresareexpectedtointensifyinthenearterm,strainingmacroeconomicinstability.

Alargeandsustainedfiscaladjustment,combinedwitharealisticfinancingstrategy,remainsthemosturgentpolicypriority.Toreducefiscalanddebtvulnerabilitiesandeaseliquidityandsolvencypressures,itiscriticaltoimplementthegovernment'shomegrownreformagenda,including:(i)phasingoutblanketsubsidiesandreplacingthemwithatargetedcashtransferscheme;(ii)improvingefficiencyintheAasandhahealthinsurancescheme;(iii)reformingSOEstoenhancecorporategovernanceandfinancialviability;and(iv)rationalizingcapitalexpenditureandrevisingthePublicSectorInvestmentProgram(PSIP)regulatoryframework.Onthemonetaryside,continuedeffortstoabsorbexcesslocalcurrencyliquidityandaddressFXshortagesremainessential.

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A1.EconomicUpdate

1.Economicgrowthremainedrobustin2025withinflationarypressureselevated

Economicgrowthin2025wassupportedbytourismanda

recoveryinfisheries

Aftergrowingat3.5percentin2024,realGDPisestimatedtohavegrownby6.3percent(y-o-y)in2025,drivenbyrobustperformanceintourismandarecoveryinfisheries(FigureA.1).Followingasharpcontractioninfisheriesin2024–duetosectoraldisruptions,includingtheclosureofamajorcannery–fishexportsgrewstronglyby94.0percent(y-o-y)in2025,andthesectorisestimatedtohavegrownby30.8percent(y-o-y).

Whiletouristarrivalsreachedanall-timehighin2025,the

averagedurationoftouriststays

shortened

Touristarrivalsincreasedby9.8percent(y-o-y)andreachedahistoricalhighof2.25millionin2025.However,theaveragedurationofstayshortenedto7.0daysin2025from7.4daysduring2024(FigureA.2).Chinesearrivalsledthegrowth,contributing14.7percentoftotalvisitorsin2025,followedbytheRussianFederation(12.4percent)andWesternEuropeancountries(UnitedKingdomat9.0percent,Germanyat7.5percent,andItalyat6.8percent).

Growthoftourist

arrivalsremained

stronginearly2026beforeasharp

declineinMarchandAprilduetothe

Touristarrivalscontinuedtoincreaseinearly2026,by4.6percent(y-o-y)inJanuaryandby15.7percent(y-o-y)inFebruary.However,duetothecurrentconflictintheMiddleEast,therelatedairspaceclosureshaveledtomanyflightcancellationsandasharpdeclineintouristarrivalsof20.7percent(y-o-y)inMarchand24.4percent(y-o-y)inApril(FigureA.2),particularlyfromEuropeanmarkets.Thishasledtoanoveralldeclineintouristarrivalsof5.4percent(y-o-y)in2026thusfar

.3

Theongoing

3AsofMay13,2026.

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conflictintheMiddleEast

conflictisexpectedtohaveasignificantimpactonMaldives,disruptingtourism,strainingoilandgassupplies,andintensifyingexternalimbalancesgiventhecountry’sdependenceontourismflowsandcriticalimports.

FigureA.1:RealGDPgrowthstayedrobustin2025…FigureA.2:…astouristarrivalsincreased,butthe

averagedurationofstaydeclined

2024av.Durationofstay

2025av.Durationofstay

2026av.Durationofstay2024arrivals

2025arrivals

2026arrivals

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

Contributiontogrowth,percentagepointsNumberoftouristarrivals(rhs,lines),Daysofstay(lhs,columns)

Others

Tourism

ConstructionManufacturing

y-o-yrealGDPgrowth

Transp.andcomm.

WholesaleandretailtradeElectricityandwater

Agri.&Fish.

2024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q4

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsMaldives(NBS),WorldSource:MinistryofTourismandEnvironment(MoTE),WorldBankcalculations.Bankcalculations.

Note:Othersincludefinancialservices,realestate,professional,scientific,andtechnicalactivities,publicadministration,education,humanhealthandsocialworkactivities,andentertainmentandrecreation.

Headlineinflationincreasedin2025

drivenbyincreasesinfood,fishand

tobaccoprices

TheConsumerPriceIndexforallcategoriesincreasedbyanaverageof4.0percent(y-o-y),upfrom1.4percent(y-o-y)in2024(FigureA.3),andonaveragewasmorepronouncedintheatolls(4.9percent)thaninMalé(3.5percent).Thiswasdrivenbyanotableincreaseinfood,fish,andtobaccoinflation,whichreachedanaverageof5.1,7.6,and80.6percent(y-o-y),respectively,in2025(FigureA.4)

.4

Limitedlocalagriculturalproduction,highimportdependence,andheightenedforeignexchangeliquiditychallengescontributedtoimportedinflation,raisingthecost-of-living

.5

Climate-relatedfactorsthataffectedfishcatchvolumesinpartsoftheyearcontributingtotheincreaseinfishprices.Highimportdutiesoncigarettescontributedtothesurgeintobaccoinflation.Ontheotherhand(i)housingandutilitiespricesfellby1.2percent(y-o-y),duetodiscountsinelectricitytariffs;(ii)informationandcommunicationservicespricesdeclinedby4.6percent(y-o-y),reflectingafallininternetpricing;and(iii)transportationpricesmoderatedby0.7percent(y-o-y),partlyduetolowerpetrolanddieselpricesamidadeclineinglobalcommoditypricesin2025.Ingeneral,thecontinuedprovisionofsubsidiesonawiderangeofitemshelpedcontainoverallinflation.

4Contributiontonationalheadlineinflationbytobaccowas3.1percentin2025.Withouttheimpactoftobacco,theheadlineinflationgrewbyabout0.95percent.

5Ashortageofforeigncurrencyforimporterscoupledwithrisingparallel-marketexchangeratepressuresdroveupthecostofimportedgoods.

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FigureA.3:Headlineinflationlargelyincreasedin2025

Year-ony-earchangeinconsumerpriceindex(CPI),percent

FigureA.4:…drivenbyanincreaseinfood,fish,andtobaccoprices

ContributionstoCPIgrowth,percentagepoints

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

HousingandUtilitiesHealth

Info.&Comm.

RestaurantsandAccom.CPIInflation

Food&Bev.FurnishingTransport

EducationOthers

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

RepublicMale'Atolls

Source:NBS,WorldBankcalculations.Source:NBS,WorldBankcalculations.

Note:Othersincludeclothingandfootwear,recreation,sportsandculture,insuranceandfinancialservices,personalcare,and

miscellaneous.services

.

2.HouseholdwelfareisvulnerabletorecentpriceshocksandfurtherthreatenedbyasustainedconflictintheMiddleEast

Alargeshareofthepopulationisatriskofpoverty

Povertystoodat11.2percentin2019,theyearofthelatestavailablewelfareestimate

.6

Atthesametime,nearlyhalfofthepopulation(48.9percent)remainedatriskofpoverty

7

-livingjustabovethepovertylineandexposedtofallingintopovertyfromanunexpectedshock.TheCOVID-19pandemicrevealedthisexposure,pushingthepovertyratetoover30percent,andleavingmanyworkersexposedtoincomelossesduetotheabsenceofunemploymentinsurance.Povertyishighlyconcentratedintheatolls,wheremorethan9outof10poorlivewhilevulnerabilitytopovertyaffectsboththeatollsandMalé(FigureA.5).

Dependencyon

importsexposes

householdstopriceshocks

TheMaldivianeconomydependsalmostentirelyongoodssourcedfromabroad.In2024,morethanhalfofimports(over54percent)consistedofconsumergoods

.8

Poorerhouseholdsandthoselivingintheatollsfaceparticularlyacuteexposuretobothfoodandnon-foodpriceshocks.Forexample,a10percentincreaseinfoodpriceswouldincreasethepovertyrateby1.6percentagepointsandthevulnerabilitytopovertyrateby2.1percentagepoints.ImpactswouldbelargerintheatollsthaninMalé(FigureA.6).Effectswouldbesimilarinmagnitudefornon-foodpriceshocks.Theseresultshighlighthowquicklyhouseholdsinthecountrycanfallbackintopovertyandstructuralvulnerability.

6Povertyisat$8.3/day,2021PPP.EstimatesbasedontheHIES2019.

7At-risk-of-povertyareallhouseholdswhicharelocatedbetweenthepovertylineandthemiddle-classline($17/day,2021PPP).EstimatesarebasedontheHIES2019.

8WITSdatabase.

June2026THEWORLDBANK

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FigureA.5:Nearlyhalfofthepopulationisatriskofpoverty

Shareofpopulation,inpercent

FigureA.6:Impactoffoodpriceshocksonpovertyandthoseatriskofpoverty–atollsvs.Malé

Percentagepointchange

Near-poor/vulnerable(USD8.30-17/day)Poor(belowUSD8.30/day)

48.90

11.20

Poverty&vulnerabilityrate

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

NewlypoorNewlyat-riskofpoverty

Atolls