mckinsey -对工业企业而言未来十年属于建设者 For industrials,the next decade belongs to builders

May2026

Mckunsey

&company

McKinseyBusinessBuilding

Forindustrials,thenext

decadebelongstobuilders

Ascoregrowthstalls,asmallsetofAI-enabledbusiness-buildingplaysis

emergingasthefastestpathtonewrevenueforindustrialandenergyleadersthatknowhowtoexecutesuccessfully.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyChristianJansen,DavidFiocco,HaraldBauer,andPaulJenkins,withEduardoManasPontandWendyZhao,representingviewsfromMcKinseyBusinessBuilding.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders2

Growthhasbecomethedefiningchallengeforindustrialandenergycompanies,butthepathforwardisshifting.Thisisnolongerastoryaboutoptimizingthecore.Itisaboutbuildingnew

businessesanddoingsofaster,withlesscapital,andinmorerepeatablewaysthanhasbeenpossible.

Asmallsetofrepeatable,

AI-enabledbusiness-building

playsisemergingasthefastestpathtogrowthforindustrialandenergyleaders.Companiesthat

treatventurebuildingasarepeatable

capability

consistentlyoutperform,achievingfastertimetomarket,lowercapitalintensity,andhighersuccessrates.

AIisthecatalyst.Ourresearchshowsthat88percentofcompaniesnowuseAIinatleastone

function,and62percentareeitherexperimentingwithorscalingagenticAI.1AIisaccelerating

everythingfromproductdesigntomodeltestingtocustomerengagement,reducingthebarriersthathavelongmadeindustrialinnovationslow,expensive,andtalentintensive.

Themacroenvironmentisbecomingmorefavorabletobusinesscreation.Highercapitalcosts

arepushingcompaniestowardfasterpaybackmodelsandrecurringrevenue.Atthesametime,valuationcorrectionshaveopenedawindowforstrategicM&A—particularlyacqui-hires,data

assets,andearly-stageventuresthatcanaccelerateinternalbuilds.Inthefirsthalfof2025,

globaldealvaluefortransactionsover$25millionrose22percentto$2trillion

,andaverage

dealsizereachedafive-yearhighof$544million.Forincumbents,thiscreatesanopportunitytobuycapabilities,talent,andtechnologythatwouldotherwisetakeyearstoassemble.

Thisarticleoffersapracticalplaybookforindustrialandenergyleadersseekingtocapturetheventure-buildingopportunity.Itidentifiesfivegrowthopportunitieswherevalueis

emerging—eachcombiningstructuralmarkettailwindswithnewAI-enabledventure

economics—andoutlinesthethreeoperatingshiftsrequiredtoexecutethemsuccessfully.

Recurring-revenuemodels

Transformingone-timesalesintoserviceofferingsisshiftingindustrialeconomicsascompaniesturnone-offequipmentsalesintonew,service-ledbusinesses.Bybundlingmaintenance,

analytics,andguaranteedoutcomesintolong-termcontracts,companiescansmoothcashflowswhilehelpingcustomersreducedowntimeandrisk.

Demandforthesemodelsisgrowing.Supplychainshocksandgeopoliticaluncertaintyhave

madereliabilityaboard-levelissue,andservicecontractsprovidetheresiliencebuyersare

seeking.Investorsalsoarerewardingrecurringrevenue:Companieswithembeddedservice

streamsandstickiercustomerrelationshipsarecommandinghighervaluationsandattracting

privateequityinterest.Ontopofthat,sustainabilitypressuresareaddingmomentum.Extendingproductlifecyclesandreducingwastealigndirectlywithnet-zerogoals,allowingmanufacturerstodifferentiatewhileembeddingenvironmentalresponsibilityintoprofitablebusinessmodels.

1“

ThestateofAIin2025:Agents,innovation,andtransformation

,”McKinsey,November5,2025.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders3

TakeGoodyear,forexample.Itstire-as-a-servicebusinessreflectsthecompany’sexpansionofitstotalmobilityoffering.Thissubscription-basedsolution,availableforcommercialandlast-

miledeliveryfleetsintheUnitedStatesandEurope,cansavetimeandimprovetotalcostofownershipthroughoutsourcedtiremanagement.

2

Forindustrialincumbents,recurring-revenuemodelsareoftenthefastestpathfortranslatingexistingassetsintonewventures.

Actionstotake

—Monetizeexistingstrengths.Identifycapabilities,suchasmaintenance,logistics,and

analytics,thatcanbepackagedintocustomer-facingserviceofferings.Goodyear,for

example,leverageditsglobalservicefootprintandtire-monitoringtechnologytobuildafleetmanagementofferingontopofitscoreproductbusiness.

—Shifttooutcome-basedmodels.Buildcontractstiedtouptime,efficiency,orperformanceratherthanone-timeproductsales.InGoodyear’scase,itstire-as-a-servicemodelusesapay-per-milestructure,directlylinkingrevenuetofleetusageandaligningincentiveswithcustomercostsavings.

—Rewireincentives.Alignsalesanddeliveryteamsaroundrecurringrevenueandlong-termcustomervalue.

Greenventuresandcircularity

Asdecarbonizationtargetstighten,globalenergyandindustrialcompaniesareunderpressuretocutemissions,reducewaste,andsecuresustainableinputs.Newventuresbuiltaround

recycling,reuse,andalternativefuelsarerapidlybecomingenginesofgrowth.

Whilecircularitybeganasaregulatorymandate,ithasquicklyprovenaneconomicadvantageaswell.Governmentsacrosstheworldarefuelingthemomentumwithfundingandtaxincentives,fromtheEU’sCircularEconomyActionPlantotheUSInflationReductionAct.Carbonprices

haveclimbedsharply,andsector-leveltargetsinindustriessuchasautomotiveandconstructionarepushingcompaniestoembedcircularpracticesacrosstheiroperations.

Thescaleoftheopportunityisevident.Aluminumdemandisprojectedtogrowfromabout

106

millionmetrictonsin2025toabout130millionby2035

,mainlydrivenbygrowthinthe

automotiveindustryandincreasedadoptionofelectricvehicles(EVs)—leavingrecyclingtofill

thegapatafractionoftheenergycost.Intransport,zero-emissiontrucksmustrisefromless

than2percentofsalestodaytoone-thirdby2030tomeetregulatorytargets,despiteacurrentcostdisadvantageofupto

40percent

comparedwithdiesel.Thesegapscreateopeningsfor

venturesinchargingnetworks,batteryreuse,andalternativefuels.

2“Goodyearintroducesasubscription-basedtires-as-a-serviceofferingdesignedtoreducetotalcostofownershipforfleets,”

Goodyearpressrelease,June24,2024;ArielleKass,“Goodyear’stiresubscriptionserviceat10,000vehicles:‘Big,bigwaytodobusinessinthefuture,’”AkronSignal,December30,2024;“GoodyearleveragingAperiaHalofortires-as-a-servicetechnology,”Trucks,Parts,Service,March11,2025.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders4

Thismomentumisalreadytranslatingintoresults.InEurope,Cylibrecentlysecured€63.4

millioninpublicfundingtobuildanindustrial-scalelithiumironphosphatebatteryrecycling

facilityinGermany,acceleratingitsabilitytorecoverlithium,graphite,andothercriticalmaterialsatcommercialscale.Thegrantsupportsexpansion,buttheunderlyingmodelisbuilton

structurallyattractiveeconomics:recoveringscarceinputsatlowerenergyintensityand

reducedsupplychainrisk.

3

Similarly,BASF’sChemCyclingprogramchannelssignificantannualinvestmentsintocircularrawmaterialsthatfeeditschemicalproductionnetwork.

Forleadersinenergyandindustrialsectors,circularityisincreasinglyshiftingfromcompliancerequirementtoscalablegrowthplatform.

Actionstotake

—Targetnear-termvalue.Focusongreenventureswithshortpaybackperiodsandcleareligibilityforpublicfundingorsubsidies.

—Embedsustainabilityinstrategy.Positioncircularitynotascompliancebutasagrowthleverthatdifferentiatesthebrandandattractsinvestors.Cylib’sscale-up—fromitspilotfacilityinAachentoaplannedindustrialplantinDormagenwith60,000-metric-tonannualcapacity(includingadedicatedlithiumironphosphateline)—reflectsamodelbuiltforcommercial

viabilityandsupplychainrelevance.

4

—Scalewhatworks.Pilotquickly,measureresults,anddoubledownonmodelsthatdeliverbothfinancialandenvironmentalreturns.Honeywell’sUpCycleplatformillustratesthis

approach.Ratherthanscalingalone,ithaspartneredthroughjointventuresandsupply

agreements—includingwithSacyrinSpainandTotalEnergies—toacceleratedeployment,securefeedstock,andbuildecosystemsupport.

5

Direct-to-customer(D2C/B2B2C)

Industrialbuyersincreasinglyexpectdigital,personalized,andfrictionlessexperiences.For

manufacturers—especiallyincategorieslikeappliances—buildingdirect-to-customerchannelshasbecomeatopstrategicpriority.Morethan80percentofappliancecompaniesexpecttheirwebsitestobecomemoresalescenteredwithinthenextthreeyears,reflectingabroaderpushtobringdistribution,data,andbrandexperienceclosertothecustomer.

6

Despitegrowingtraffic,mostmanufacturers’websitesremainunderleveraged.Roughly32

percentofcustomersvisitthemduringthepurchasejourney,yetfewerthan2percentmakeapurchase.

7

Mostvisitorscometoexplore,nottobuy—butthat’spreciselywheretheopportunitylies.Companiesthatcombinetransparentpricingandseamlessdeliverywithstandout

serviceability,convenience,andthoughtfulextras(suchasfreeaccessoriesorproactivesupport)canconvertcasualbrowsersintocommittedbuyers.

3“Cylibsecures€63.4MgrantfundingtobuildLFPbatteryrecyclingfacility,”Cylibpressrelease,December19,2025;“Cylibcloses€55MSeriesAforindustrialscaling,”Cylibpressrelease,May15,2024.

4“Cylibsecures€63.4MgrantfundingtobuildLFPbatteryrecyclingfacility,”Cylibpressrelease,December19,2025;“Interviewwithcylib,”EICScalingClub,March5,2026.

5“Upcycleplasticsrecycling,”Honeywell,accessedJanuary2026;“Honeywellintroducesrevolutionaryplasticsrecycling

technologytodriveacircularplasticseconomy,”DigitalRefiningPTQ,November2,2021;“TotalEnergiesandHoneywellsignastrategicagreementtopromotethedevelopmentofadvancedplasticrecycling,”Honeywellpressrelease,February17,2022.

6“

Direct-to-consumere-commerceinappliances:Astrategicgrowthopportunity

,”McKinsey,August4,2023.

7“

Direct-to-consumere-commerceinappliances:Astrategicgrowthopportunity

,”McKinsey,August4,2023.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders5

Theeconomicsarecompelling.Bybypassingintermediaries,manufacturerscanliftgross

marginswhilegainingdirectaccesstodemandsignalsandusagedata.Directchannelsalso

unlockfasterinnovationcycles,enablingreal-timetestingofnewproducts,bundles,andpricingmodelsoftenin

weeksratherthanmonths

.

Leadingcompaniesarealreadydemonstratingwhatdirectengagementcanunlock.ConsideranotherexamplefromGoodyear,whichisembeddingagenticAIintoitscustomerjourney

throughanetworkofdigitalagents.Theseincludepersonalshoppingassistantsthatguide

customerstotherighttirebasedonvehicleanddrivingpatterns,aswellassalesandserviceagentsthatautomaterecommendations,follow-ups,andappointmentscheduling.By

integratingthesecapabilitiesintoitsdirectchannels,Goodyearissimplifyingthebuyingprocess,increasingconversion,andcreatingamorepersonalized,end-to-endcustomerexperience.

Directchannelsarebecomingacriticalroutetomarginexpansion,fasterlearningcycles,andclosercustomerownership.

Actionstotake

—Definethevaluepropositionandmanagechannels.Articulateaclearcustomervalue

propositionthatdifferentiatesonservice,convenience,andtrust.Activelymanagepotentialchannelconflictasdirectsalesgrow.

—Designthefullcustomerjourney.Drivequalifiedtraffictodigitalchannels,makediscoveryandpurchaseeffortless,andcreatepost-purchaseexperiencesthatbuildloyaltyandrepeatsales.

—Buildcross-functionalenablers.StandupadedicatedD2Corganizationsupportedbyanagileoperatingmodel,scalabletechanddatafoundations,andtightintegrationacross

marketing,supplychain,andfulfillment.

AIaccelerationanddatamonetization

Industrialcompaniesaresittingonvaststoresofdata,suchasequipmentperformance,

productionflows,andcustomerusage,butmuchofitremainsunderutilized.Turningthisdataintoproducts,platforms,andservicesisbecomingahigh-valuegrowthstrategy,particularlyasAImakesmonetizationeasierandfaster.Beyondunlockingnewrevenuestreams,

AIis

reshapinghowtheseventuresarebuilt—

compressingconceptvalidation,acceleratingproductiteration,andenablingleanerteamstoscalefasterthantraditionalmodels.

Momentumisbuildingacrosstheecosystem.Publicinvestmentisrising,withprogramssuchastheEU’sInvestAIdesignedtofundlarge-scaleindustrialplatforms.Adoptionisacceleratingasmanufacturers,logisticsoperators,andenergyplayersmovefrompilotstoscaleddeployments.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders6

Atthesametime,thecostofstoringandprocessingdatahasfallendramaticallyoverthepastdecade,makingitfeasibletopackageandselloperationaldatasetsatscale.

AgenticAIisamplifyingthisshift.Byreasoningacrosscomplexdatasetsandactingoninsightsinrealtime,agentscanautomateanalytics,streamlineR&D,andlowerthecostofbuildingnewdata-drivenventures.Thepayoffissignificant.McKinseyresearchestimatesagenticAIcould

unlock

$450billionto$650billion

inannualrevenueby2030inglobalenergyandindustrialleaders,alongside30to50percentcostreductions.

Thisshiftisalreadytakingshapeacrossindustries.ConsiderHERETechnologies,which

aggregateslocationdatafrom70OEMsandsellsAPIstomorethan1,300clients.Walmart’sScintillagrew173percentyearonyearafterevolvingintoanAI-poweredintelligenceplatform.

Formanyindustrialincumbents,proprietarydataisincreasinglybecomingoneofthemostscalableanddefensiblegrowthassets.

Actionstotake

—Auditandactivatedataassets.Identifyproprietarydatasetswithcommercialpotentialandtestpilotproductswithin90to120days.JohnDeere,forexample,hasbuiltapowerfuldatamoatfrommorethan370millionacresofland,withfield-levelmodelsthatimproveover

timeandincreaseswitchingcosts.Similarly,HEREaggregatesanonymizedlocationdatafrommorethan90OEMbrands—spanninghundredsofmillionsofvehicles—andlayersitwiththird-partyinputstocreatereal-timelocationintelligence.8

—Buildscalablemodels.Choosemonetizationpaths—platforms,embeddedanalytics,or

outcome-basedservices—thatcreaterecurringvalue.Exemplifyingthisapproach,HEREappliesatransaction-basedAPImodelacrossservicessuchasrouting,geocoding,andmapping.9

—Linkinsighttoimpact.Tiedataproductsdirectlytomeasurablecustomeroutcomesto

reinforceloyaltyanddifferentiation.JohnDeere’soutcome-basedpricingmodelreflectsthisshift.Farmerspayperacreonlywhenmeasurablesavingsaredelivered,whichaligns

revenuedirectlywithcustomervalueandstrengthenslong-termloyalty.

Newmaterialsandingredients

Astheenergytransitionaccelerates,demandforcriticalinputssuchaslithium,cobalt,andrareearthelementsissurging.Supply,however,isstrugglingtokeepup.Forglobalenergyand

industrialplayers,thiscreatesopeningstobuilddifferentiatedmaterialsbusinessesthataddresssupplygapswhilecapturingpremiummargins.

Theseopportunitiesareunfoldingamidabroaderreconfigurationofglobalsupplychains.Tradeflowsareshifting,regionalproductionnetworksaredeepening,andmanufacturersare

8“JohnDeerecustomersuseSee&Spray™technologyacrossfivemillionacresin2025,”JohnDeerepressrelease,November4,2025;“Deere&Company:PrecisionagricultureAIandthedatamoatinfarmequipment,”PitchGrade,January5,2026.

9HERETechnologieswebsite.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders7

reassessingconcentrationriskincriticalmaterials.Ratherthanrelyingonsingle-source

geographies,manycompaniesarediversifyingthroughlocalizedprocessing,regional

partnerships,andmoreresilientvaluechainarchitectures.Leadersthatanticipatetheseshiftscanpositionthemselveswithinnewlyemergingsupplyecosystems,balancingoperational

disciplinewiththeupsideoffirst-moveradvantage.Theeconomics,however,areshifting.

Extractingtraditionalresourcesisbecomingmoreexpensiveandenvironmentallyintensive,

whilerecyclingandprocessingaremovingtothecenterofindustrialstrategy.Policymakersarereinforcingthispivot.The

EUCriticalRawMaterialsAct

setsambitious2030targetsfor

domesticextraction,processing,andrecycling.FundingisexpandingthroughinitiativessuchastheEUAdvancedMaterialsStrategyandtheLIFEProgramme,whichtogethermobilize

hundredsofmillionsinpublic–privateinvestment.Atthesametime,nearshoringandshiftingtradeflowsareforcingOEMstorethinksupplychains,creatingopportunitiesforlocalized

processingandrecoveryventures.

Acrossthevaluechain,newventuresareredefininghowmaterialsaresourcedandscaled.TakeRedwoodMaterialsasanexample.Itisscalingfromrecyclingintolithiumioninputproduction,havingrecentlyraised$350milliontoexpanditsabilitytosupplygrid-scaleenergystorage

systemsaselectricitydemandsurges.10Theseventuresdemonstratehowincumbentscanusecompliance,certification,andsupplysecurityascompetitivemoatstocarveoutdurable

positionsinfast-growingmarkets.

Assupplychainsregionalizeandcriticalinputstighten,materialsinnovationisbecomingbothagrowthopportunityandastrategicmoat.

Actionstotake

—Spotandspinouthiddenassets.Identifymaterials,tools,orprocesseswithstand-alone

marketpotential.RedwoodMaterialsillustratesthisshift.Ratherthanstoppingatrecycling,ithasverticallyintegratedintotheproductionofbattery-gradematerials,suchascopperfoilandcathodeinputs,capturingmorevalueacrossthesupplychain.

11

—Builddefensiblemoats.Usecertification,compliance,andstrategicpartnershipstosecurecompetitiveadvantage.Redwoodhasanchoreditspositionthroughsupplychain

partnershipswithOEMsincludingGM,Lyft,Panasonic,Toyota,andVolkswagen—securingbothfeedstockandofftakewhilereinforcingitsroleinthebatteryecosystem.

12

—Localizeandscale.Leverageregionalsupplychainshiftsandpolicyincentivestoanchornewventuresclosertoendmarkets.

Theseopportunityspacesshowwheregrowthisemerging.Whatwillincreasinglyseparatewinners,however,isnotsimplywheretheychoosetoplaybuthowtheybuildacrossthesespaces.

10AlanOhnsman,“RedwoodMaterialsraises$350milliontoboostelectricgridbatterybusiness,”Forbes,October23,2025.

11KirstenKorosec,“RedwoodMaterialsraisesanother$350Mtopowerupitsenergy-storagebusiness,”TechCrunch,October23,2025;“2025:AdefiningyearforRedwood,”RedwoodMaterials,accessedJanuary2026.

12ScottSnowden,“Redwoodsecures$350milliontoexpandrecycling,storage,”ResourceRecycling,November6,2025.

Forindustrials,thenextdecadebelongstobuilders8

Threeshiftsthatwillseparatethenextgenerationofsuccessfulbuilders

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Manyofthenextgrowthenginesareextensionsofwhatleadingcompaniesalreadydowell,butfirstmoverswillshapetheeconomicsandlockinadvantage.WhatdistinguishesleadersisnotjustwheretheyplaybuthowtheyrewiretheiroperatingmodelforAI-firstventurebuilding.AsoutlinedinourlatestAIventure-building

research

,thesamethreeshiftsareincreasingly

differentiatingtheleadersacrossthesegrowthspaces.

1.Resetperformanceexpectationsacrossasset-heavyventures

Successfulbusinessbuilderswillshiftfromincrem