机构研究报告-Europe Economic 2025-外文版培训课件

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REGIONSEuropeEconomicOutlook2025CHAPTER

01OverviewoftheEuropeanEconomyAnnualrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthrateinEuropeancountriesin2024RealGDPgrowthratesinEurope2024RealGDPgrowthrate2%

3%0%1%4%5%6%EuropeanUnionEuroareaMalta1.12%0.83%5%MontenegroRussianFederationBelarus3.74%3.63%3.58%CroatiaCyprusAlbania3.4%3.29%3.25%Turkey3.01%Ukraine3%Poland2.96%Spain2.91%3Description:ThefastestgrowingeconomyinEuropein2024wasMalta.ThesmallMediterraneancountry'sgrossdomesticproductgrewatfivepercentin2024,beatingoutMontenegrowhichhadagrowthrateofalmostfourpercentandtheRussianFederationwhichhadarateof3.6percentinthesameyear.Estoniawasthecountrywiththelargestnegativegrowthin2024,astheBalticcountry'seconomyshrankby0.88percentcomparedwith2023,largelyasaresultofthecountry'sexposuretothe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2024Source(s):IMFAverageannualgrowthrateofgrossdomesticproductintheEuropeanUnionfrom1996to2024GDPannualgrowthrateintheEU1996-20248%6%3.9%3.5%3.5%4%2%3%2.5%2.2%2.1%2%1.8%1.8%1.6%1.1%0.9%0.6%-0.7%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-5.6%4Description:In2023,thegrossdomesticproductintheEuropeanUniongrewby0.8percent,aseconomicstagnationandhighinflationcausedbytheRussia-UkrainewarimpactedEuropeaneconomies.TheEuropeanCommissionforecaststhattheEuropeaneconomywillhavegrownby0.9percentin2024,continuingthetrendregisteredinthepreviousyear.Thisrepresentssloweconomicgrowthafterthepost-pandemicresurgence,yetavoidstherecessionmanycommentatorswarnedtheEUmight[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):1996to2024;*ForecastdatafromtheEuropeanCommission.ReadmoreSource(s):EuropeanCommissionEuropeanUnion:Shareinglobalgrossdomesticproductbasedonpurchasing-power-parityfrom2019to2029ShareoftheEUintheglobalgrossdomesticproductadjustedforpurchasingpower18%16%14%12%10%8%15.27%14.84%14.79%14.82%14.46%14.17%13.97%13.78%13.58%13.39%13.19%6%4%2%0%201920202021202220232024202520262027202820295Description:ThisstatisticshowstheshareoftheEuropeanUnionintheglobalgrossdomesticproductbasedonpurchasing-power-parityfrom2019to2029.In2023,theshareoftheEuropeanUnionintheglobalgrossdomesticproductbasedonpurchasing-power-parityamountedtoanestimated14.46percent.TheEUGDPamountedto15.91trillioneurosin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):EU;*Allfiguresareestimates.ThefiguresrefertothecurrentmemberstatesoftheEuropeanUnion,i.e.includingcountrieswhichwerenotmembersbefore.Figureshavebeenrounded.

ReadmoreSource(s):IMFHarmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)inflationrateoftheEuropeanUnionfromJanuary1997toDecember2024InflationrateoftheEuropeanUnion1997-202414%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%6Description:TheinflationrateintheEuropeanUnionwas2.7percentinDecember2024,asignificantdeclinefromthehigh-pointreachedinOctober2022of11.5percent,thehighestrateofinflationrecordedintheprovidedtimeperiod.Before2021,theinflationrateintheEUpeakedat4.4percentinJuly2008andwaslowestinJanuary2015,whenpriceswereshrinkingby0.5percent.Currently,ꢀRomaniahasthehighestinflationrateamongEUmemberstatesat5.5percent,whileIrelandhasthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;January1997toDecember2024Source(s):EurostatEmploymentrateinselectedEuropeancountriesinQ22024(asapercentageoftotalworkingagepopulation)EmploymentrateinEuropein2024,bycountryEmploymentrate0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%IcelandNetherlandsSwitzerlandMalta86.5%82.5%80.5%78.4%77.7%DenmarkSweden77.5%GermanyNorway77.4%77.4%Estonia76.6%Cyprus75.8%Czechia75.3%HungaryIreland75.1%74.4%7Description:TheNetherlandshadthehighestemploymentrateamongEuropeanUnioncountriesin2024,at82.5percent,whileIcelandhadthehighestemploymentrateamongallEuropeancountries.ThesecondhighestemploymentrateintheEUwasthatofMalta,whichhadanemploymentrateof78.4percent.ItalyreportedthelowestemploymentrateintheEUat62.3percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;Q22024;15-64yearsSource(s):EurostatUnemploymentrateoftheEuropeanUnion(EU27)fromJanuary2000toNovember2024UnemploymentrateoftheEU2000-202413.0%12.0%11.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%8Description:UnemploymentintheEuropeanUnionhasreacheditslowpointinthetwenty-firstcenturyin2024.Theshareofthelabourforceoutofworkwasslighlyunder5.9percentbetweenAugustandNovemberofthatyear,amarkeddecreasefromitsmostrecentpeakof7.8percentintheSummerof2020.WhilethejobsrecoveryhasbeenstronginthewakeoftheCoronaviruspandemicintheEU,thisnumberisstillfarabovetheremarkablylowrateintheUnitedStates,whichhasreached4.3[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;January2000toNovember2024Source(s):EurostatUnemploymentrateintheEuropeanUnionandEuropeasofDecember2024,bycountryUnemploymentrateintheEU2024,bycountryUnemployment

rateSpain10.6%9.4%8.7%8.5%7.8%7.3%7%GreeceFinlandSwedenFranceEstoniaDenmarkLatvia6.8%6.5%6.4%6.3%6.2%6.1%LithuaniaPortugalEuroareaItalyLuxembourg9Description:AmongEuropeanUnioncountriesinDecember2024,Spainhadthehighestunemploymentrateat10.6percent,followedbyGreeceat9.4percent.Bycontrast,CzechiahasthelowestunemploymentrateinEurope,at2.6percent.TheoverallrateofunemploymentintheEuropeanUnionwas5.9percentinthesamemonth-ahistoricallow-pointforunemploymentintheEU,whichhadbeenatover10percentformuchofthe2010s.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;December2024Source(s):EurostatCentralbankinterestratesintheEuropeanUnionfromJanuary2022toJanuary2025,bycountryEUcentralbankinterestrates2022-2025,bycountryBulgariaCzechiaEuroarea*HungaryPolandRomaniaSweden15%13%11%9%7%5%3%1%-1%-3%-5%10Description:EuropeanUnioncentralbanksnavigatedacomplexeconomiclandscapebetween2022and2025,withinterestratesinitiallyrisingacrossmemberstates.However,apivotalshiftoccurredinlate2023asmostcountriesbeganloweringtheirrates,reflectingthedelicatebalancebetweencontrollinginflationandsupportingeconomicgrowth.IntheEuroarea,theEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)ledthistrendbycuttinginterestratesfrom4.5percentto3.15percentin2024,implementingfour[...]ReadmoreNote(s):EU;January2022toJanuary2025Source(s):ECB;Statista;TradingEconomicsCHAPTER

02EconomicGrowthForecastsForecastedrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ratefortheEurozonecurrencyareafrom2024to2026,bydifferenteconomicforecastersForecastsfortherealGDPgrowthrateoftheEurozone2024-2026Forecasting

institutionEuropeanCommissionIMF20241.2%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.5%20251.6%1.8%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%2026%1.7%%OECDSurveyofProfessionalForecastersECBstaffprojectionsConsensusEconomics%1.5%1.5%12Description:Accordingtoprojectionsbyarangeofeconomicinstitutions,theeconomyoftheEurocurrencyareaisforecasttogrowbybetween0.5percentand1.2percentin2024.TheEurozonesawslowgrowthin2023,whenitgrewby0.7percent-albeitthiswassignificantlybetterthanmanyeconomicforecastswhichpredictedarecessionintheEUinthatyear.Acrossalltheforecastsincluded,growthisexpectedtopickupin2025,whentheEurozone'seconomyisexpectedtogrowbetween1.4and[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2024to2026Source(s):ECBGrossdomesticproductgrowthrateforecastsintheEuropeanUnionin2025,bymemberstate(percentageincreaseonpreviousperiod)GDPgrowthrateforecastsinEuropeanUnion2025Percentagechangeonpreviousyear0.0%EUaverage0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%1.5%EuroareaaverageAustria1.4%1.6%BelgiumBulgariaCroatia1.4%2.9%2.9%2.9%CyprusCzechia2.8%DenmarkEstoniaFinland1.4%1.4%3.1%France1.3%Germany1%13Description:TheeconomyoftheEuropeanUnionissettogrowby1.5percentin2025,accordingtoforecastsbytheEuropeanCommission.Thismarksasignificantslowdowncomparedtopreviousyears,whentheEUmemberstatesgrewquicklyintheaftermathoftheCOVIDpandemic.Maltaisthecountrywhichisforecastedtogrowthemostin2025,withanannualgrowthrateof4.3percent.ManyofEurope'slargesteconomies,ontheotherhand,aresettoexperiencingslowgrowthor[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2024Source(s):EuropeanCommissionGrossdomesticproduct(GDP)atcurrentpricesofEurope'slargesteconomiesfrom1980to2029(inbillionU.Sdollars)Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofEurope'slargesteconomies1980-2029Germany**UnitedKingdomFranceItalyRussiaSpain6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000014Description:Since1980,Europe'slargesteconomieshaveconsistentlybeenFrance,Germany,Italy,Spain,andtheUnitedKingdom,althoughtheformerSovietUnion'seconomywasthelargestinthe1980s,andRussia'seconomyhasbeenlargerthanSpain'ssince2010.SinceSovietdissolution,GermanyhasalwayshadthelargesteconomyinEurope,whileeitherFranceortheUKhashadthesecondlargesteconomydependingontheyear.Italy'seconomywasofarelativelysimilarsizetothatofthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France,Germany,Italy,Russia,Spain,UnitedKingdom;1980to2024;*Estimate.**OnlyincludesWestGermanypriortoGermanreunificationin1990.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFGrowthoftherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheEuropeanUnionandtheEuroareafrom2019to2029(comparedtothepreviousyear)Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthinEUandEuroarea2029EUEuroarea8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%201920202021202220232024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*15Description:Thestatisticshowsthegrowthoftherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheEuropeanUnionandtheEuroareafrom2019to2023,withprojectionsupuntil2029.GDPreferstothetotalmarketvalueofallgoodsandservicesthatareproducedwithinacountryperyear.Itisanimportantindicatoroftheeconomicstrengthofacountry.RealGDPisadjustedforpricechangesandisthereforeregardedasakeyindicatorforeconomicgrowth.In2022,theGDPintheEuropeanUnion[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Source(s):IMFCHAPTER

03InflationandInterestRatesForecastsForecastedannualinterestrateontheEuropeanCentralBank's(ECB)mainrefinancingoperationsfrom2023to2025ForecastedinterestrateontheECB'smainrefinancingoperations2023-20255.0%4.5%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%4.15%3.29%2023*2024202517/statistics/1440772/forecasted-interest-rate-ecb-main-refinancing-operationsAccordingtotheEuropeanCentralBank'ssurveyofprofessionalforecasters,theinterestrateontheECB'smainrefinancingoperationsisexpectedtodecreasefrom4.5percentinDecember2023to4.15percentin2024and3.29percentin2025.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2023to2025;*InterestrateonthemainrefinancingoperationsoftheECBasofDecember2023.ReadmoreSource(s):ECBForecastedharmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)inflationratefortheEurozonefrom2024to2026,bydifferenteconomicforecastersForecastsfortheinflationrateoftheEurozone2024-2026bydifferentinstitutionsForecasting

institutionEuropeanCommissionECBstaffprojectionsIMF20242.5%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.3%20252.1%2.2%2.1%2%2026%1.9%%SurveyofProfessionalForecastersConsensusEconomicsOECD1.9%1.9%%2%2.2%18Description:InflationintheEurocurrencyarea,whichhitapeakof10.6percentinOctober2022,issettocontinuetofallin2025.EconomicforecastspredictthattheHICPinflationratewillrangebetween2.2percentand2percentovertheyear.ꢀThissustaineddecreasefollowsadownwardtrendthatbeganin2024wheninflationsettledat.2.4percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2024to2026Source(s):ECBForecastedharmonizedindicesofconsumerprices(HICP)inflationrateintheEurozonecurrencyareafrom2023to2026,byconsumptioncategoryForecastedHICPinflationrateintheEurozonebyconsumptioncategory2023-20262023202410.9%2025202612%10%8%6.3%5.4%6%5%4%3.2%2.8%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.1%2.1%2.1%1.9%2%1.2%0.3%0%-0.1%-2%-4%-1.9%HICPHICPEnergyHICPFoodHICPexcludingenergyHICPexcludingenergyandfood19Description:AccordingtoprojectionsbystaffoftheEurosystem-thegroupofcentralbanksofcountrieswhichusetheEuroastheircurrency-theannualinflationrateoftheEurozoneissettodeclinesharply,halvingfrom5.4percentin2023to2.7percentin2024,withmoregradualdeclinesin2025and2026.ThisdeclineintherateofincreaseofthepricelevelintheEurozoneisbeingdrivenbycomparativelylowinflationinenergyprices,whichstandsinsharpcontrasttothesituationoftheEUin[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2023to2026Source(s):ECBInflationrateintheEuropeanUnionandtheEuroareafrom2019to2029(comparedtothepreviousyear)InflationrateinEUandEuroarea2029EUEuroarea10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%20192020202120222023*2024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*20Description:ThestatisticshowstheinflationrateintheEuropeanUnionandtheEuroareafrom2019to2022,withprojectionsupuntil2029.Theterminflation,alsoknownascurrencydevaluation(dropinthevalueofmoney),ischaracterizedbyasteadyriseinpricesforfinishedproducts(consumergoods,capitalgoods).Theconsumerpriceindextrackspricetrendsofprivateconsumptionexpenditure,andshowsanincreaseintheindex'scurrentlevelofinflation.In2022,theinflationrateintheEUwas[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;*Estimate.Valueshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFAnnualinflationrateoftheConsumerPriceIndexintheUnitedKingdomfrom2000to2029CPIannualinflationrateUK2000-202910%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%21Description:In2024,theannualinflationratefortheUnitedKingdomisexpectedtobe2.5percent,followinganannualrateof7.3percentin2023,and9.1percentin2022.Before2022,theinflationratewasatitshighestin2011whenitreached4.5percent,andwaslowestin2015whenanannualinflationrateofzeropercentwasrecorded.InflationhasbeensurgingintheUKsincelate2021,andreacheda41-year-highof11.1percentinOctober2022.Sincethatrecentpeak,inflationhasgradually[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;2000to2029;*Datafor2024-2029isforecastdataOutturndataisfromtheOfficeofNationalStatisticsAnnualCPIInflationRate:DatasetID:D7G7ReadmoreSource(s):OfficeforBudgetResponsibility;OfficeforNationalStatistics(UK)AnnualinflationrateoftheRetailPriceIndexintheUnitedKingdomfrom2000to2029RPIannualinflationrateUK2000-202914%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%22Description:Inflationisanimportantmeasureofanycountry’seconomy,andtheRetailPriceIndex(RPI)isoneofthemostwidelyusedindicatorsintheUnitedKingdom,withtherateexpectedtobe2.9percentin2024,comparedwith9.7percentin2023.Thisfollowed2022,wheninflationreachedarateof11.6percent,byfarthehighestannualrateduringthisprovidedtimeperiod.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;2000to2029;*Datafor2024-2029isforecastdataOutturndataisfromtheOfficeofNationalStatisticsAnnualRPIInflationRate:DatasetID:CZBHReadmoreSource(s):OfficeforBudgetResponsibility;OfficeforNationalStatistics(UK)CHAPTER

04LaborMarketForecastsExpectationsofthelevelofemploymentbybusinessesinEuropefor2025,bycountryEmploymentexpectationsofbusinessesinEurope2025,bycountryIncreaseRemainunchangedDecrease100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%24Description:ThethreeEuropeancountrieswiththegreatestshareoftheirbusinesscommunitiesstatingthattheyexpecttheirnumberofemployeestodecreaseover2025areSerbia,GermanyandAustria.ꢀAlmostonequarterofSerbianbusinessesbelievedtheywouldhavetolayoffworkersin2025.Bycontrast,almostallthebusinessesinTurkeybelievethattheywouldeitherincreasetheirnumberofemployeesorthattheiremploymentfigureswouldremainunchangedduringtheyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2024Source(s):EurochambresForecastedunemploymentrateintheEurozonecurrencyareafrom2023to2026(inpercentageterms)ForecastedunemploymentratefortheEurozonecurrencyarea2023-20267%6.6%6.5%6.5%6.4%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%2023*20242025202625Description:AccordingtotheprojectionsofthestaffoftheEurosystem-thegroupofcentralbanksofthecountrieswhichusetheEuroastheircurrency-theunemploymentrateintheEurozoneissettoincreaseslightlyin2024,risingfrom6.5to6.6percent.Intheyearsfollowing,theunemploymentrateoftheEurozoneisthenprojectedtoslowlydecline,reaching6.4percentin2026.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2023to2026;*Referstoactualdataandnotaprojection.ReadmoreSource(s):ECBForecastedannualgrowthinthenumberofpersonsemployedintheEurozonecurrencyareafrom2023to2026(inpercentageterms)ForecastedgrowthinthenumberofemployedpersonsintheEurozone2023-20261.6%1.4%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.8%0.4%20250.4%20262023*202426Description:AccordingtotheforecastsofthestaffoftheEurosystem-thegroupofcentralbanksofthecountieswhichusetheEurocurrency-thegrowthinthenumberofpersonsinemploymentintheEurozoneissettoslowoverthecomingyears,decliningfrom1.4percentin2023to0.8ꢀpercentinꢀ2024and0.4percentthefollowingtwoyears.Inspiteoftheabsolutenumberofpeopleemployedstillincreasing,theshareoftheworkforceunemployedissettoincreaseby0.1percentin2024,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2023to2026;*Referstoactualdataandnotaforecast.ReadmoreSource(s):ECBForecastedincreasesinunitlaborcosts,compensationperemployee,andlaborproductivityintheEurozonecurrencyareafrom2023to2026(inpercentageterms)ForecastedincreasesinlaborcostsandproductivityintheEurozone2023-202620232024202520267%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%6.1%5.3%4.6%4.1%3.8%3.3%2.6%2%1.2%1.1%0.4%-0.8%UnitlaborcostsCompensationperemployeeLaborproductivity27Description:AccordingtotheforecastsofthestaffoftheEurosystem-thegroupofcentralbanksofcountrieswhichusetheEuroastheircurrency-therateofincreaseinunitlaborcosts(thelaborcostatwhichoneunitofproductionisproduced)willdecreaseconsiderablyoverthecomingyears,decliningfromarateof6.1percentin2023,to4.1percentin2024and2.6percentin2025.Thisdecreaseinunitlaborcostsissettobedrivenbyaslowinginthegrowthofcompensationperemployee,which[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2023to2026Source(s):ECBCHAPTER

05OtherKeyIssuesAffectingtheEuropeanEconomyin2025BusinessconfidenceindexscoresinEuropein2024,bycountryBusinessconfidenceindexforEuropeancountriesin20242.51.872.01.51.261.141.00.670.410.30.50.240.0-0.01-0.12-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-0.22-0.51-0.71-1.5-2.2329Description:Romania,Montenegro,andPortugalarethethreeEuropeancountrieswhosebusinesscommunitiesdisplaythegreatestconfidencegoinginto2024,accordingtotheannualsurveyoftheassociationofEuropeanchambersofcommerceandindustry.Slovenia,Lithuania,andAustriaarethethreeEuropeancountrieswiththemostpessimisticbusinesscommunitiesin2024,whilethebusinesscommunitiesofGermanyandFrance,thelargesteconomiesinthegroup,werealsonegativeaboutthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2024Source(s):EurochambresForecastednumberofbusinessinsolvenciesinEuropein2025,bycountryForecastednumberofbusinessinsolvenciesinEurope2025Forecastednumberofbusinessinsolvencies010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000FranceUnitedKingdomGermanyRussia63,00027,48023,00011,000HungaryBelgiumSweden11,00010,60010,2009,700ItalySwitzerlandRomaniaAustria8,0507,4005,9505,8004,900CzechiaSpain30Description:In2025,thereareforecastedtobearound63thousandbusinessinsolvenciesinFrance,themostofanyEuropeancountry.InGermany,Europe'slargesteconomy,thereareexpectedtobe23thousandbusinessinsolvencies.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2024Source(s):AllianzSalesexpectationsindexscoresfornationalandexportsalesbyEuropeanbusinessesin2024,bycountryNationalandexportsalesexpectationsofEuropeanbusinesses2024,bycountryNationalsalesexpectationsExportsalesexpectations2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.031Description:Monteneg