美联储-多花钱少买：2025年关税和美国家庭支出 Paying More and Buying Less 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries

FederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.

ISSN1936-2854(Print)

ISSN2767-3898(Online)

PayingMoreandBuyingLess:2025TariffsandU.S.Household

Spending

SinemHacioglu-Hoke,LeoFeler

2026-035

Pleasecitethispaperas:

Hacioglu-Hoke,Sinem,andLeoFeler(2026).“PayingMoreandBuyingLess:2025Tari优sandU.S.HouseholdSpending,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSe-ries2026-035.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,

/10.17016/FEDS.2026.035

.

NOTE:Sta优workingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.Theanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchsta优ortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.

1

PAyⅠNGMoREANDBuyⅠNGLEss:2025

TARⅠFFsANDU.S.HousEHoLDSpENDⅠNG

SinemHacıo˘glu-Hoke*LeoFeler†

FederalReserveBoardVisitingEconomist

CEPRFederalReserveBankofChicago

May21,2026

Abstract

Thispaperestimatestheeffectsofthe2025U.S.tariffsonhouseholdspendingusingtransaction-leveldatalinkedtotariffexposureandatariffsentimentsurvey.Comparinghighversuslowtariff-exposedcategories,wefind15to20percentpricepass-through.Atthemeanincreaseintariffexposure,pricesriseby1to2percentwhilespendingfallsbyroughly4percent.Surveyevidencelinkingstatedintentionstorevealedbehavioridentifiesamechanismforthelargespendingresponse:reallocationtowardessentialsandtrade-downwithincategories,concentratedamongmiddle-incomehouseholdswithdiscretionaryslackwhoexpresstariffconcerns.Low-incomehouseholdsbearadisproportionatewelfareburdenthroughregressivepass-through.

Keywords:Tariffs,Passthrough,Prices,HouseholdSpending,Welfare,Uncertainty

JELClassification:F13,D12,E31

*2001CStNW,Washington,DC20037.Email:

sinem.haciogluhoke@

Web:

www.

†Email:

feler.leo@

Web:

/

WearegratefultoFarihaKamalfortheguidanceonthetradedataandtoSamanthaMitchell,JackChylak,andAmandaSchoenbauerforhelpwiththesurvey.MasonThieuprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.WealsothankAaronFlaaen,ColinHottman,ChrisKurz,RobbieMinton,EkaterinaPeneva,ErickSager,DanielVillarVallenas,aswellastheparticipantsoftheSNDE2026conferenceandFederalReserveBoardseminarfortheircommentsandfeedback.SomeofthisworkwasdonewhileLeoFelerwasthechiefeconomistofNumerator.Artificialintelligencewasusedintexteditingandcoding,butallAI-generatedtextandcodewerethoroughlyverifiedbytheauthors.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperaretheresponsibilityoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeinterpretedasreflectingtheviewsoftheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystemorofanyotherpersonassociatedwiththeFederalReserveSystem.

2

1Introduction

Inearly2025,theUnitedStatesimposedbroad-basedtariffscoveringvirtuallyallofitstradingpartners,leadingtooneofthemostsubstantialshifts

inU.S.trade

policyindecades.Howmuchofthisshockhouseholdsfaceorfeelandhowtheyrespondhasbecomeacentralquestionforassessingitsimplications.Agrowingliteraturehasmadeprogressonthepriceside,documentingthatpass-throughtoretailpriceshassofarbeenpartialandgradual(

Cavalloetal.

,

2025

;

MintonandSomale

,

2025

;

Dvorkinetal.

,

2025

;

BarbieroandStein

,

2025

;

Hacıo˘glu-Hokeetal.

,

2026

).Considerablylessisknownaboutthesubsequentmarginofadjustmentastowhetherhouseholdscontinuetopurchasethesamegoodsathigherprices,whethertheyreduceexpenditure,andwhethertheresponsevariessystematicallyacrosstheincomedistribution.

Thispapertakesupthesequestionsusingtransaction-leveldataonover125,000U.S.householdsobservedcontinuouslyfromJanuary2024throughDecember2025.ThedatacomefromtheNumeratorhouseholdpanelandrecordtheprice,quantity,andproductattributesforhouseholdpurchasesfrombrick-and-mortarandonlineretailersandalsocontainarichsetofhouseholdcharacteristicsincludingincome.Theconsumptioncategoriesthatdominatethepanel,includinggroceries,healthandbeauty,apparel,homegoods,andelectronics,arepreciselythosethataremostdirectlyaffectedbytariffsontradedgoods.Theyarealsothecategorieshouseholdsweightmostheavilywhenforminginflationexpectationsandadjustingspendingdecisions(

D’Acuntoetal.

,

2021

;

Weber

etal.

,

2022

),whichmakesthemparticularlysalientforthequestionsweexplore.Thecentralempiricaladvantageofthedataisthejointobservationofpricesandquantitiesatthehousehold-productlevel.Thisallowsustoestimatetheprice,spending,andquantityresponsestotariffsfromasinglesource.Forasubsetofapproximately21,000panelhouseholds,wefurtherlinkthetransactionrecordstoatariffsentimentsurveyfieldedbyNumerator,whichrecordstariffawareness,concernaboutpriceincreases,andstatedbehavioralintentions.Thesurveyallowsustoconnecthouseholdbeliefstospendingbehaviorandtodistinguishprice-drivenresponsesfromprecautionaryresponsestotariffs. Welinkeachpurchasetoameasureoftariffexposureconstructedatthe4-digitHarmonizedSystemlevelfromU.S.Censusmonthlymerchandisetradedata,combining

3

realizedeffectivetariffrateswithproduct-categoryimportpenetration.Ourempiricalstrategyisadifference-in-differencesdesignthatcomparescategorieswithhighertariffexposuretocategorieswithlowerexposurebeforeandaftertariffswereimplementedinFebruary2025.Weestimatethesamespecificationonthreeoutcomes:aFisherpriceindexconstructedfromthehouseholddata,realspending,andquantitiespurchased.

Wedocumentthreemainfindings.Thefirstisthattariffstranslateintosubstan-tiallylargermovementsinspendingthaninprices.Wereportpass-throughundertwocomplementarytreatmentdefinitionsthatanswerrelatedbutdistinctquestions.Usingtherealizedtariffratedirectly,whichweightsallproductcategoriesequallyregardlessoftheirimportdependence,aonepercentagepointincreaseinthetariffrateraisesretailpricesbyapproximately0.15percentagepoints,implyingretailpass-throughofaround15percent.Ourbenchmarkspecificationinsteadscalesthetariffratebyimportpenetra-tiontoisolatecategorieswherethetariffisactuallybornebydomesticconsumers,andyieldsalargerpass-throughestimateofroughly20percent.Bothestimatesarebroadlyconsistentwiththepartialpricepass-throughdocumentedforthe2025episode(

Cavallo

etal.

,

2025

;

MintonandSomale

,

2025

;

Dvorkinetal.

,

2025

;

Hacıo˘glu-Hokeetal.

,

2026

).Ontheotherhand,aonepercentagepointincreaseintariffexposurereducesrealhouse-holdspendingonaffectedcategoriesbyapproximately0.6percentagepoints.Evaluatedatthemeanincreaseintariffexposureoverthesampleperiod,theseestimatesimplythataveragepricesinanaffectedconsumptioncategoryrisebyapproximately1to2percent,dependingonthespecification,whilethecorrespondingspendingdeclineisroughly4percent,acontractionthreetofourtimeslargerthantheimpliedpriceincrease.

Mechanically,thewedgebetweenpricesandspendingisdifficulttoexplainbyhouse-holdssimplycuttingbackinresponsetohigherprices.Thisobservationisconsistentwithhouseholdscurtailingpurchasesoftariff-exposedgoodsbeyondwhatthepricechangewouldpredict,achannelrecentlyemphasizedasoperatingthroughhighertariff-rateun-certaintyin

Candiaetal.

(

2026

).Moreover,

denBestenetal.

(

2026

)documentthattariffsdepressrealoutputandourhousehold-levelevidenceonspendingcontractionsoffersami-crochannelconsistentwiththataggregatefinding.Wealsofindnoevidenceofstockpilingasanexplanation.Thespendingcontractionisaslargeinthesteadystateasinthefirstpost-tariffmonths,andstatedstockpilersreduceratherthanacceleratetheirpurchases,

4

consistentwithanxietyabouttariffsdominatinganyanticipatorybuyingmotive.

Thesecondfindingconcernsthedistributionoftheburdenacrossincomegroups.

Low-incomehouseholdsbearadisproportionatepriceburden.Tariffsoperatethroughtwodistinctchannelswithdifferentincomeprofiles.Thefirstisaprice-incidencechannelthatdominatesatthebottomofthedistribution.Thepriceresponsetotariffexposureismonotonicallydecreasinginincome.Whenthesedifferencesarecombinedintowel-fareterms,low-incomehouseholdsbearlossesofapproximately0.19percentofincomecomparedwith0.02percentforhigh-incomehouseholds,creatingagapdisproportion-allylargerforlow-incomehouseholds.Wecomputethiscostusingtwocomplementarymethods:astandardconsumersurplusformula(Harbergerdeadweightloss)andanexactcost-of-livingindex(Sato-Vartia)thatusesobservedspendingreallocationratherthananassumeddemandelasticity.

Thethirdfindingusessurveyevidencetoaskwhyspendingfallsbysomuchmorethanpricesrise.Whiletheaggregateresultsdocumentthefact,thesurveyidentifieswhodrivesitandhow.Allincomegroupscontractspendingontariff-exposedgoodsbysimilarmagnitudes,butthemarginofadjustmentdiffers.Withincategoriesthathouse-holdsflagastariff-affected,trade-downtocheapervarietiesiscommonacrosstheentireincomedistribution:spendingfallswhilequantitieshold,apatternthatdoesnotvarywithincome.Themarginsthatdovaryareacrosscategories.Middle-incomehouse-holdsadditionallycutthelevelofnon-essentialspending,drivingthebasket-compositionshifttowardessentials,areallocationidentifiedfromthedifferentialresponseacrosstar-iffexposurecategoriesandconfirmedbylinkingstatedintentionstorevealedbehavior.Low-incomehouseholdsabsorbthetariffprimarilythroughhigherpricesoncontinuingpurchases,withlimitedroomtorestructurethecompositionoftheirspending.Thetwochannelsthusdiffernotinthetotalmagnitudeofthespendingresponsebutinitscom-position.Thepricechannelisregressiveinwelfareterms,theprecautionarychannelisareallocationstoryconcentratedwherehouseholdshavediscretionaryroomtoreweighttheirbaskets.Weusetheterm‘precautionary’throughouttorefertothisdefensivereal-locationofthebasketunderuncertainty,ratherthantotheaggregatesavingsresponsethatitusuallystandsforinthemacroliterature.

5

Relatedliteratureandcontribution.Ourpaperrelatestoseveralstrandsofworkontheeffectsoftradepolicy.

Afirststrandstudiestariffpass-through.Workonthe2018–19tradewarestablishednear-completepass-throughtoimportprices(

Amitietal.

,

2019

,

2020

;

Fajgelbaumetal.

,

2020

)andexaminedtransmissiontoretailprices(

Cavalloetal.

,

2021a

).Forthe2025episode,agrowingbodyofworkusingonlineprices,PCEdata,firmsurveys,andscannerdatafindsretailpass-throughthatispartialandgradual(

Cavalloetal.

,

2025

;

Minton

andSomale

,

2025

;

Dvorkinetal.

,

2025

;

BarbieroandStein

,

2025

;

Hacıo˘glu-Hokeetal.

,

2026

)andourestimatessitwithinthisrange.Themodestpercentagepass-throughwefindpartlyreflectsdatacompositiontowardeverydayconsumergoodsandtwoconcep-tualpointsintheliterature.First,

Sangani

(

2026

)showsthatincompletepass-throughinpercentagescandisguisecompletepass-throughinlevels,andsecond,

Ganapatiand

Hottman

(

2026

)showthataccountingforendogenousquantityresponsesreducesmea-suredpass-throughtoaround60percent.Ourestimatesshouldthereforebeinterpretedasquantity-attenuatedpercentagepass-through.

Asecondstrandexamineshouseholdconsumptionresponsestotradeshocks.

Waugh

(

2019

)documentsthatU.S.countiesexposedtoChineseretaliatorytariffsexperiencedlargeconsumptiondeclines,operatingthroughthelabormarketchannelaslostexportaccessreducedlocalemploymentandspending.

Maetal.

(

2025

)and

DeDadandGhosh

(

2026

)useNielsenIQscannerdataforthesameepisode,with

Maetal.

(

2025

)showingthatwealthierhouseholds’greatersubstitutioncapacitydrivesdistributionaldifferencesinwelfarelosses.Weprovideamongthefirsthousehold-levelestimatesofprice,spending,andquantityresponsesjointlyidentifiedfromthesamedataforthe2025episode,andlinkthepaneltoasurveythatmeasurestariffawareness,sentiment,andbehavioralintentions.Thisallowsustoseparatepriceincidencefromprecautionarycontractioninawaynotpossiblewithscannerdataalone.Incontrasttothesubstitution-capacitystoryin

Ma

etal.

(

2025

),ourevidencepointstowarddifferentialaccesstodiscretionaryadjustmentsuchthatlow-incomehouseholdsaredistinguishednotbysubstitutiontechnologybutbylackofslack.

Athirdstrandstudieshowtradeaffectshouseholdwelfarethroughtheconsumptionbasket.

FajgelbaumandKhandelwal

(

2016

)showthattradeliberalizationdisproportion-

6

atelybenefitslower-incomehouseholds,

AcostaandCox

(

2024

)provideevidencethat

U.S.tariffsareregressive,and

Porto

(

2006

)developsthemethodologicalframeworkforassessingdistributionaleffectsthroughhouseholdconsumption.Ourcontributionistoconstructwelfaremeasuresfromtwoidentificationmargins,eachanchoredtoincome-

group-specificbehavioralresponses.

1

Afourthstrandtakesamacroeconomicperspective.

denBestenetal.

(

2026

)showthattariffincreasesarecontractionaryforoutputand,post-WWII,disinflationary,point-ingtowardaggregatedemandchannels.

Candiaetal.

(

2026

)arguesthattariff-inducedpolicyuncertaintylinkssmallpriceeffectstolargespendingdeclines.Ourhousehold-levelestimatescomplementthesefindingsbyshowingthathouseholdsreducepurchasesevenwhenretailpricesmovemodestly,andweprovidemicroevidenceonthemechanism:spendingcontractionsongoodsfacingnegligibletariffs,isolatedusingsurveymeasuresofpessimism,identifyaprecautionarychannelconcentratedinthemiddleoftheincomedistribution.

Finally,wecontributetoworklinkingahouseholdsurveyontariffexpectationstospendingbehavior.Consumersentimentsurveyshavelongbeenusedtostudymacroe-conomicexpectations(

Coibionetal.

,

2024

),butdirecttariff-sentimentmeasureslinkedtotransactiondataarerare.Weshowthatstatedreductionintentionspredictrevealedspendingcutsforhigher-incomehouseholds,thatstatedsubstitutionintentionsdonotpredictrevealedsubstitution,andthatstatedstockpilingisassociatedwithlowerpost-tariffspending.Thesepatternssupportaninterpretationinwhichthebehavioralresponseisdominatedbycontractionratherthanreallocation,concentratedamonghouseholdswithslack.

Theremainderofthepaperproceedsasfollows.Section

2

describesthedataandtheconstructionofkeymeasures.Section

3

presentstheempiricalstrategyandthemainresultsonprices,spending,andquantities,documentsheterogeneityacrossincomegroupsandproductessentiality,andprovidesevidenceagainststockpilingasanexplanationforthespendingcontraction.Section

4

quantifiesthewelfarelossesfromthepricechannel.

1Relatedworkexploresbroaderlabormarketandwelfareeffectsoftradeshocks(

Topalova

,

2010

;

Autoretal.

,

2013

;

PierceandSchott

,

2016

;

Autoretal.

,

2021

;

CaliendoandParro

,

2023

;

Borusyak

andJaravel

,

2021

).

JaravelandSager

(

2025

)showthatU.S.-Chinatradehistoricallyreducedconsumerprices,especiallyforlower-incomehouseholds.

Fengetal.

(

2023

)documentpriceeffectsofChineseimportsandretaliatorytariffs.

7

Section

5

usesthelinkedhouseholdsurveytoidentifythetwochannelsthroughwhichtariffsoperateandtheirdistinctincidenceacrossincomegroups.Section

6

concludes.

2DataandtheConstructionofKeyMeasures

Thissectionpresentsthedataandkeymeasuresusedthroughoutthepaper.Webeginwiththetransaction-levelhouseholddataandtradedata.Thesetwodatasetsaremergedusingacrosswalk,whichwedescribenext.Followingthedataoverview,weoutlinethekeymeasuresemployedinouranalysis:thetariffexposuremeasureandtheFisherPriceIndex.

2.1Transaction-LevelHouseholdData

OurprimarydatasourceistheNumeratorhouseholdpanel,whichprovidescomprehen-sivetransaction-levelrecordsofconsumerpurchasescombinedwithdetaileddemographicinformation.PanelistssubmitpurchaserecordsthroughtheReceiptHogmobileappviathreechannels:uploadingphotographsofpaperreceipts,connectingemailaccountsforautomaticdigitalreceiptcollection,andlinkingretailerappsincludingAmazon,Wal-mart,andothermajorretailers.Numeratorprocessesthesereceiptsusingautomatedtoolssupplementedbymanualhumanverification.Thedatasetincludesrichdemographicattributesobtainedthroughperiodicsurveys,suchasincomebracket,educationlevels,agegroups,5-digitzipcode,householdcomposition,andrace/ethnicity.Thedatasetprovides16categoricalincomebracketsthatareself-reportedbypanelists.Appendix

A

providesmoreinformationondatacollectionandrepresentativeness.

Thepanelbytheendof2025comprises200,000householdsselectedfromabroaderpoolexceedingonemillionregistereduserstoensuredemographicandgeographicrepre-sentativeness.TheNumeratorpaneloperatesasarollingpanelwithpanelistsjoiningandexitingeachmonth.Numeratordesignateshouseholdsas“staticpanelists”iftheymain-taincontinuousandcompletetransactionrecordsforaminimumof12months,enablingreliablelongitudinalanalysis.Forouranalysis,werestrictthesampletothe126,448householdswhoremainedactivethroughouttheentire24-monthperiodfromJanuary2024throughDecember2025,minimizingcompositionalchanges.

8

Thehouseholddatacontainproductsthatareidentifiedwiththeiruniqueitemiden-

tificationnumbers(itemID).Thedatastructurelinksthreecoreidentifiers:userID(household),basketID(shoppingtrip/transaction),anditemID(product),allowingustotrackindividualpurchasedecisionsatthehousehold-product-triplevel.Allproductsaremappedtoahierarchyofclassifications.Toensuredataquality,weomititemswithpricesbelow$1,assomezeroorverylowpricesreflectbuy-one-get-one-freedealsortran-scriptionerrors,andweremoveanyproductwhereunitpriceexceeds$5,000,or$500forgroceryitems,whichconstituteanegligibleshareoftotalspending.Thefinaldatacoversapproximately$3.8billioninexpenditureonover29millionuniqueitems,over2024and2025.

Table

1

liststhebroadersectoralclassificationwitheachsector’sexpendituresharesinthefinaldata.Thedatasetprimarilycapturesexpendituresonphysicalgoodspurchasedthroughbothbrick-and-mortarandonlineretailers.However,severalspendingcategorieshavelimitedornocoverage.Amongservices,onlyrestaurantsarewell-representedwhileotherservicesaremostlymissing.Healthcarespendingispartiallycapturedthroughover-the-counterpharmaceuticalproducts,co-pays,andsomemedicalservices.Motorvehiclepurchasesandleasesarenotcaptured,thoughautomotiveproductssuchasoilandpartsareincluded.Certainmajorspendingcategoriesareentirelyabsent,includ-inghousingexpenditures(rent,mortgage,utilities)andfinancialservices.Giventhesefeaturesofthedata,wesystematicallyexcluderestaurantspendingfromouranalysis,duetoitsminimaldirectexposuretotariffs,andmedicalspendingsincewecannotcap-tureitsfullextent.Theresultingcoveragerepresentsapproximately20percentoftheconsumptionbasketcapturedinthePCEandCPI.However,thissubsetcapturesthehigh-frequencypurchasesmostdirectlyaffectedbytariffsontradedgoods.Moreover,recentresearchindicatesthathouseholdsforminflationexpectationsprimarilybasedonpricesoffrequentlypurchaseditemssuchasgroceriesratherthanexpenditure-weightedbasketaverages(

D’Acuntoetal.

,

2021

;

Weberetal.

,

2022

),suggestingthatthecategoriesinourdataareparticularlysalientforunderstandingspendingresponsestotariff-policydrivenshocks.

9

TABLE1:ExpenditureSharesbySector

SectorDescription

ExpenditureShare(%)

Grocery

46.36

Health&Beauty

9.57

Home&Garden

9.52

Apparel,Footwear,andAccessories

6.57

Household

5.13

Tools&HomeImprovement

4.23

Pet

4.14

Electronics

3.83

Party&Occasions

2.80

Toys

2.06

Automotive

1.40

Baby

1.19

Sports

1.00

TobaccoProductsandAccessories

0.87

Office

0.83

Books

0.40

Entertainment

0.11

Note:Valuesinpercent.ExpendituresharesarecalculatedbyaggregatingtotalexpenditureacrossallhouseholdsintheNumeratorpanelforeachsectorfordataspanningJanuary2024throughDecember2025;totalspendingoverthe24-monthperiodis$3,802,841,523on29,362,394items.Sectorsaresortedindescendingorderbyexpenditureshare.

2.2TradeData

Intrade,productsareclassifiedintoHarmonizedSystem(HS)codes,astandardizedin-ternationalclassificationsystemusedbycustomsauthoritiestoidentifyandcategorizetradedgoods.Everyproducthasa10-digitHScode,providingdetailedproductclassifi-cation.Tradedatacanbeaggregatedtodifferentlevels,suchas6-or4-digitHScodes.Inthispaper,weworkwith4-digitHScodes(HS4),whichprovidebroadproductcategoriesforreasonswediscussbelowinthehousehold-to-tradedatacrosswalksection.

WeassemblethreecomponentsfrompublicU.S.Censussources.First,monthlytariffratesattheHS4levelfor2024and2025areconstructedfromtheCensusBureau’smonthlyimportmerchandisemicrodata.

2

ForeachHS10record,weobserveconsumptionimportvalueandcalculateddutiesbysourcecountryandmonth.WeaggregatetoHS4

2Source:Merchandisedata,TradeImports.

/foreign-trade/data/

dataproducts.html

.

10

bysummingdutiesandimportvaluesacrossall10-digitcodeswithineachHS4andacrossallsourcecountriesseparatelyforeachmonth.TherealizedeffectivetariffrateforHS4codehinmonthtisthencomputedasinEquation(

1

)below.ThisyieldsapanelofHS4×monthtariffratesspanningJanuary2024throughDecember2025.

Second,importpenetrationratiosareconstructedfrom2022tradeandproductiondataandheldfixedthroughoutthesampleperiod.Weobtain2022monthlyimportandexportmerchandisemicrodatafromtheCensusBureauandaggregatetotheHS4levelbysummingacrossallsource(destination)countriesandacrossalltwelvemonthsof2022,yieldingannualHS4-levelimportsMhandexportsXh.

3

DomesticshipmentsShcomefromthe2022EconomicCensus,coveringmanufacturingandagriculture,restrictedtoU.S.nationaltotals.

4

WemapshipmentsfromNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)codestoHS4codesusingtheCensusBureau’s2022importandexportconcordances,withhierarchicalmatchingatthe6-,5-,4-,3-,and2-digitNAICSlevelstomaximizecoverage.

5

The2022EconomicCensusisthemostrecentcomprehensivesourceofdomesticproductiondatabydetailedindustry,sincetheEconomicCensusisconductedeveryfiveyears.Consequently,wefiximportshares,importandexportvalues,shipments,andimportpenetrationratiosattheir2022valuesthroughoutouranalysis.ThetimevariationinourtariffexposuremeasurecomesexclusivelyfromthemonthlyHS4tariffratesover2024–2025.

Wenowdefinethetariffrateandtariffexposuremeasureformally.ForeachHS4codehinmontht,therealizedeffectivetariffrateis:

wherethesumrunsoverall10-digitHScodeskwithinHS4codehandacrossallsourcecountries,andDutiesk,tandImportValuek,taretotalcalculatedconsumptiondutiesand

3ExportsarematchedtoHS4viathe10-digitScheduleBcode,whichwetruncateto4digitsinthesamewayasimports.

4ManufacturingandagricultureshipmentscoveralltheHS4codesinNumeratordata.ManufacturingiscoveredunderNAICS31–33andagricultureisunderNAICS11whereNAICSstandsforNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem.ThesedataarefromtheEC2231BasicfileformanufacturingandEC2211Basicfileforagriculture,downloadedfromthe2022EconomicCensus:

https://www.

/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/tables.html

.

5Concordancesavailableat

/foreign-trade/reference/index.html

.

11

totalconsumptionimportvalueforHS10codekinmontht.Thisyieldseffectiveapplied

tariffratesthatreflecttheactualtariffburdenonimports,ratherthanannouncedstatu-toryratesattheFederalRegister.Duetodelaysinimplementationandexemptionsatthecountryorproductlevel,realizedratescandiffersubstantiallyfromannouncedrates(

Azzimonti

,

2025

;

Cavalloetal.

,

2025

;

GopinathandNeiman

,

2026

).

Importpenetrationiscalculatedusing2022annualvalues:

whereM,X,andSdenote2022annualimports,exports,anddomesticship-

mentsattheHS4levelconstructedasdescribedabove.Thisratiocapturestheextenttowhichdomesticconsumptionreliesonforeignsources.Avaluenear1indicatesnearlycompleteimportdependence,whileavaluenear0indicatesthatconsumptionisprimarilymetbydomesticproduction.

Thetariffexposuremeasurecombinesthesetwocomponents.ForeachHS4codehinmontht:

TariffExposureh,t=τh,t×ImportPenetrationh(3)

Sinceimportpenetratio