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CounterpointGlobalInsights
OpportunitiesandExpectations
ThePresentValueofGrowthOpportunitiesinValuation
CONSILIENTOBSERVER|June18,2026
Introduction
Thegoaloffundamentalinvestingistopayapriceforastakeinacompanythatislessthanitsvalueinanticipationthatpriceandvaluewillconverge.Aninvestorwillearnanexcessreturnifthegapbetweenpriceandvaluenarrows.
Priceisthetransparentpartofthiscalculationbecauseitisquotedcontinuallywhenthestockmarketisopen.Valueistheopaquepartbecauseitisbasedonthepresentvalueoffuturecashflows,andnooneknowswhatthefutureholds.
Youcanthinkaboutthevalueofprospectivecashflowsintwoparts.1Thefirstisthecontinuationofwhatacompanyisdoingtoday.Forinstance,youmightassumethatacompanyearning$2pershareannuallycansustainthatlevelonasteady-statebasis.
Thesecondpartistheoptiontomakeinvestmentsinthefuturethatcreatevalue.Thispartiscalledthe“presentvalueofgrowthopportunities”(PVGO),atermcoinedbyStewartMyers,afinancialeconomist.2“Growth”herereferstovaluecreation,theabilitytoearnareturnoninvestmenthigherthantheopportunitycostofcapital.“Opportunities”capturestheideathattheseinvestmentsareoptions,whichconfertherightbutnottheobligationtoact.
Forthestocksofmostcompanies,andforthemarketoverall,someofthepriceisattributabletoPVGO.ThecontributionsofsteadystateandPVGOtototalpriceareproxiesforexpectations.
Whenthesteadystateismostofthestockprice,expectationsaboutfuturevaluecreationarelow(presumingthebusinessisnotcyclicalorinseculardecline).WhenthePVGOisalargepercentageoftheprice,expectationsaboutvaluecreationarehigh.
ThisreportexaminesPVGOinthecontextoftheoverallmarketaswellasindividualcompanies.ItalsoconsidershowthePVGOpercentageperformsrelativetothetraditionalvaluefactor,pricetobookvalue.WefindthatthePVGOpercentagecanbeausefulcomplementtoothervaluationapproaches.
AUTHORS
MichaelJ.Mauboussin
michael.mauboussin@
DanCallahan,CFA
dan.callahan1@
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20282
Forinstance,hereisasimpleandusefulheuristicfordisaggregatingaprice-earnings(P/E)multiple.Thesteady-stateassumesthatthecurrentlevelofearningspersists.Asaresult,wecanvaluethatpartasaperpetuity,whichcapitalizestheearnings.Specifically,theP/Emultipleshouldequal1÷thecostofequitycapital.Assumingacostofequityof8.75percent,theP/Emultipleattributabletothesteady-statevalueis11.4(11.4=1÷0.0875).3
Apremiumtothesteady-statemultipleimpliesthatthemarketisattributingvaluetoPVGO,currentearningsareunsustainable,oracombinationofthetwo.4TheP/EmultiplefortheS&P500,anindexofapproximately500U.S.stockswiththelargestmarketcapitalizations,was21.9basedonconsensusestimatesfor2026earningsatthetimeofouranalysis(June12,2026).
WenowexaminethehistoryofthePVGOpercentagefortheS&P500,whoseconstituentsrepresentabout80percentofU.S.equitymarketcapitalization.
PVGOofStockMarket.Exhibit1showstheannualPVGOpercentagefortheS&P500from1961to2025.5Weestimatethesteady-statevaluebytakingtheoperatingearningsoftheS&P500forthetrailingfourquartersanddividingthembyanestimateofthecostofequitycapitalatyear-end.TheestimatefortheequityriskpremiumcomesfromAswathDamodaran,aprofessoroffinanceattheSternSchoolatNewYorkUniversity.Wethensubtractthesteady-statepricefromtheindexpricetoassesstheamountattributabletovaluecreation.
Onaverage,thePVGOhasbeen35percentoftheprice,andthesteady-statevaluehasbeen65percent.Therehavebeenperiodswhenthepriceincorporatedlittleornofuturevaluecreation(1974and2011)andothertimeswhenitreflectedsubstantialfuturevaluecreation(1999and2001).Attheendof2025,thismeasurewaswellabovetheaverage.
Exhibit1:PVGOPercentagefortheS&P500,1961.2025
Percent
Average
2standarddeviations
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2standarddeviations
70
60
50
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Source:CounterpointGlobal,S&PDowJonesIndices,AswathDamodaran,FREDattheFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20283
AnalysisofthePVGOpercentagepromptstheobviousquestionofhowthemarketperformsfollowinghighorlowlevels.Exhibit2comparesthePVGOpercentagetothecompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)intotalshareholderreturns(TSRs)inthesubsequent10-yearsfortheS&P500fromtheendof1961to2015.
LowerPVGOpercentagesareassociatedwithhighersubsequentTSRs,andhigherpercentagesarefollowedbylowerTSRs.6Butthecorrelationisonlymoderate.Therelationshipisthesame,butthecorrelationsareweaker,for1-and5-yearTSRs.
Exhibit2:PVGOPercentageandFuture10-YearTSRsfortheS&P500,1961-2025
Future10-YearTSR(Annualized)
20%r=-0.26
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%PVGOPercentage
Source:CounterpointGlobal,S&PDowJonesIndices,AswathDamodaran,FREDattheFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.
Exhibit3showsthePVGOpercentagerankedbyquartiles(1isthelowestand4isthehighest)andthe10-yearTSRsthatfollow.TheCAGRinTSRis11.6percentforthelowestquartileand7.6percentforthehighestquartile.TheaverageCAGRinTSRforthemiddlequartilesis11.2percent.PVGOpercentageprovidesadecentsignalwhenitreachesextremelevelsbutisapoortoolfortimingingeneral.
Exhibit3:PVGOPercentagebyQuartileandFuture10-YearTSRsfortheS&P500,1961-2025
Future10-YearTSR(Annualized)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1234
PVGOPercentageQuartile(LowtoHigh)
Source:CounterpointGlobal,S&PDowJonesIndices,AswathDamodaran,FREDattheFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20284
PVGOofCompanies.Wenowturntotheanalysisofthestocksofcompanies.7Weuseadifferentandmoresophisticatedmethodforthiswork.Toestimatesteady-statevalueforeachcompany,westartwithtrailing12-monthnetoperatingprofitaftertaxes(NOPAT)andcapitalizeitbytheweightedaveragecostofcapital.8Wethensubtractnetdebt,leavinguswithasteady-statevaluefortheequity.ThatallowsustoestimatePVGO.
Forexample,assumeNOPATis$100,thecostofcapitalis8percent,netdebtis$250,andthemarketvalueofequityis$1,500.Inthissimpleexample,thesteady-stateequityvalueis$1,000($100÷0.08=$1,250−$250=$1,000).
Becausetotalequityvalueequalssteady-statevalueplusPVGO,wecansolveforaPVGOpercentageof33percent(PVGO=$1,500–$1,000=$500,andPVGOpercentage=$500÷$1,500=0.33).
Exhibit4showsthefive-yearannualizedTSRs,byquintileofPVGOpercentage,forthestocksofU.S.publiccompanieswithmarketcapitalizationsof$1billionormorein2024USDfrom1990to2024.Thefive-yearmedianTSRwas8.7percentforthequintilewiththelowestPVGOpercentageand5.0percentforthequintilewiththehighestPVGOpercentage.ButthefactthatthesecondquintilehadthehighestmedianTSRunderscoresthatthismeasureismoreusefulattheextremesthanitisbetweenthem.
Exhibit4:PVGOPercentagebyQuintileand5-YearTSRsforU.S.Companies,1990-2024
Next5-YearAnnualizedTSR,Median
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
12345
PVGOPercentageQuintile(LowesttoHighest)
Source:CounterpointGlobal,Compustat,andFactSet.
Note:Companieswithmarketcapitalizationsofatleast$1billionin2024USD.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.
Buildingonthispoint,wesplitstocksintotwoparts.WethencalculatedtheannualizedTSRsoverthenextfive-years,onarollingbasis,foreachgroup.Exhibit5showsthedifferenceinfuturereturnsbetweenthelowandhighgroupsforeachyearfrom1990to2019.Thereturnspreadispositiveinabout90percentoftheyearsandaverages2.6percentagepointsoverthefullspan.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20285
Exhibit5:RelativeTSRofBottomVersusTopHalfofPVGOPercentage,1990-2024
Next5-YearAnnualizedReturns,Median
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source:CounterpointGlobal,Compustat,FactSet,andKennethR.French.
Note:Companieswithmarketcapitalizationsofatleast$1billionin2024USD.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.
WenextexaminethePVGOsforindividualcompaniesovertime.Thiscalculationestimatessteady-statevaluebycapitalizingtheconsensusestimateforearningsoverthenextfourquartersusingthecostofequity.Wecanattributethedifferencebetweenthestockpriceandthesteady-statevaluetothePVGO.
WepickedahandfulofcompanieswefoundtobeinterestingexamplesandmeasuredPVGOpercentagesfromthemid-tolate-1990sto2025(seeexhibit6).Afullergroupofleadingcompaniesineachsectorappearsintheappendix.Herearesomeobservations,noneofwhichshouldbeconstruedasinvestmentadvice:
•NVIDIA.Despitenowbeingthelargestcompanyintheworldasmeasuredbymarketcapitalization,Nvidia’sPVGOpercentageislowerthanitwas,onaverage,intheearly2000s.Thestockhasperformedextremelywellinrecentyears,inlargepartmirroringrapidgrowthinearningsandcashflow.Asaresult,thePVGOpercentageistodaysimilartowhatitwasattheendof2016.
•Microsoft.Followingthedot-combust,Microsoft’sstockwasroughlyflatforadecade,eventhoughthecompanycontinuedtogrowsalesandprofits.Asaresult,itsPVGOpercentagewentfrom85percentin1999tonegative53percentin2012.Fromthere,thestockandPVGOpercentagereboundedstrongly.Still,thePVGOpercentageremainswellbelowthepeak.
•Amazon.Amazon’sPVGOpercentagewasinexcessof100percentinthelate1990s(through2001),reflectingthefactthatthecompanywaslosingmoney.Butovertime,thePVGOpercentagehasdriftedlowerevenasthecompany’ssales,profits,andstockpricegrewatarapidrate.ThePVGOpercentageatyear-end2025wasthelowestyear-endreadingsincethecompanywentpublicin1997.
•JPMorganChase.Thiscompanyfollowedthesamepatternassomeofthetechnologygiants,includingNvidiaandMicrosoft,buttheabsolutelevelsofitsPVGOpercentagesweresubstantiallylower.Similartootherfinancialcompanies,JPMorgan’sPVGOpercentagepeakedataround40percentandwassubstantiallynegativefollowingtheglobalfinancialcrisisof2008-2009.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20286
Exhibit6:PVGOPercentagesfortheStocksofSelectedCompanies
PVGOPercentage
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
NVIDIACorp
PVGOPercentage
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%-40%
-60%
Microsoft
PVGOPercentage
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
A
PVGOPercentage
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%-40%-60%
-80%
JPMorganChase
Source:CounterpointGlobal,Compustat,andFactSet.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20287
PVGOandtheValueFactor.PVGOisameasureofexpectations.Soisthe“valuefactor,”whichwaspopularizedbyEugeneFamaandKennethFrench,professorsoffinance.9Thevaluefactoriscalculatedbysortingstocksbasedonbook-to-pricemultiples,controllingforthesizeofthemarketcapitalization.Thefactoristheaveragereturnsofthestockswithhighbook-to-priceminustheaveragereturnsofthosewithlowbook-to-price.
Themultipleofbook-to-priceistheinverseofthemoreconventionalprice-to-book.So,ahighbook-to-pricemultipleoftenimpliesmodestexpectationsandlowbook-to-pricereflectshighexpectations.Thisfactoriscalled“high-minus-low”(HML),or“value,”inthefinanceliterature.FamaandFrenchshowthatthevaluefactorhelpsexplainstockreturnsbeyondthepredictionsofthecapitalassetpricingmodel(CAPM)from1927to2025.
Thevaluefactorhasbeenlesseffectivesincetheearly2000s.Onepotentialexplanationhasbeentheshiftfromtangibletointangibleinvestment,whichhasmadebookvaluealessrelevantfinancialmeasure.10HereweexplorewhetherPVGOcanaddanyinsight.
Exhibit7comparestheresultsofthesortbasedonlowandhighPVGOpercentages(exhibit5)tothevaluefactor.Theexhibitmeasuresfive-yearannualizedreturnsfrom1990through2024.ThePVGOpercentageseemstoprovidehigher,andmoreconsistent,returns.Theaveragefive-yearreturnis230basispointsabovethoseofthevaluefactor.
Exhibit7:TSRofBottomMinusTopHalfofPVGOPercentageandtheValueFactor,1990-2024
Next5-YearAnnualizedReturns,Median
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%-15%
-20%
PVGOLowMinusHighValueFactor
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source:CounterpointGlobal,Compustat,FactSet,andKennethR.French.
Note:Companieswithmarketcapitalizationsofatleast$1billionin2024USD.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20288
Summary
Thegoaloffundamentalinvestingistobuyanassetatapricethatislowerthanareasonableestimateofvalue.Stockpricescommonlyreflectthevalueofcurrentearningsandtheoptiontomakefutureinvestmentsthatcreatevalue.Thisallowsustoseparatepriceintoasteady-statevalue,whichassumescurrentearningspersist,andthepresentvalueofgrowthopportunities(PVGO).Itisa“birdinthehand”and“twointhebush.”11
WelookedathowPVGOasapercentageofprice,aproxyforinvestorexpectations,servedasameasureofmarkettiming.Specifically,wecomparedthelevelofPVGOpercentagetosubsequent10-yeartotalshareholderreturns(TSRs)fortheS&P500.Theresultsshowsomemodestusefulnessintiming,butmostlywhenthePVGOpercentagereachesextremelevels.
WethenconsideredthePVGOpercentageforindividualcompanies.OuranalysislookedatPVGOpercentagelevelsandfive-yearTSRs.ThemeasureshowsameaningfulTSRspread,withthestockswithlowPVGOexpectationsoutperformingthosewithhighPVGOexpectationsby260basispointsperyear.
NextweexaminedthePVGOpercentagesovertimeforahandfulofcompanies(theappendixincludesasampleofthelargestcompanies,bymarketcapitalization,foreachsector).Eachcaseprovidesthebasisforanarrativeaboutpastresultsandfutureprospects.
ThePVGOpercentageisacomplementtotraditionalvaluationapproaches.Wealsowantedtoseewhetheritaddedanyinsightrelativetoanothermeasureofexpectations,thevaluefactor.OursimpleanalysissuggeststhatthePVGOpercentagemayhaveprovidedahigher,andmoreconsistent,returnthanthevaluefactoroverthepast25years.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/20289
Appendix:PVGOPercentagesfortheTopU.S.CompaniesinEachSector
PVGOPercentage
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Alphabet
MetaPlatformsNetflix
CommunicationServices
0%
PVGOPercentage
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
Amazon
Tesla
HomeDepot
ConsumerDiscretionary
25%
0%
PVGOPercentage
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
ConsumerStaples
WalmartCostco
Coca-Cola
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%-40%-60%-80%
-100%
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/202810
PVGOPercentage
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Energy
ExxonMobil
Chevron
ConocoPhillips
120%
80%
40%
0%
-40% -80%-120%
-160%
PVGOPercentage
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
BerkshireHathawayFinancialsJPMorganChase
Visa
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%-40%-60%
-80%
PVGOPercentage
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Healthcare
EliLilly
Johnson&JohnsonAbbVie
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/202811
PVGOPercentage
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
CaterpillarIndustrials
GEAerospaceRTX
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%-40%-60%-80%
-100%
PVGOPercentage
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
NVIDIAInformationTechnologyApple
Microsoft
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%-50%
-75%
PVGOPercentage
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Materials
Linde
Newmont
Freeport-McMoRan
100%
50%
0%
-50%-100%-150%-200%
-250%
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/202812
PVGOPercentage
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
WelltowerRealEstate
PrologisEquinix
250%
150%
50%
-50%
-150%
-250%
-350%
PVGOPercentage
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
100%
50%
0%
-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%
-300%
NextEraEnergySouthern
DukeEnergy
Utilities
Source:CounterpointGlobalandFactSet.
Note:Top3companiesineachGICSsectorintheS&P500Indexbasedonmarketcapitalization,asof5/14/26;Beginsatearliestrecordwithineachsector;Toseealongerhistoricalseries,inIndustrialswesubstitutedRTXCorporation(4thlargest)forGEVernova(3rdlargest),andinUtilitieswesubstitutedDukeEnergy(4thlargest)forConstellationEnergy(3rdlargest);Y-axisistruncatedinseveralcasesforvisualizationpurposes.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/202813
Endnotes
1MertonH.MillerandFrancoModigliani,“DividendPolicy,Growth,andtheValuationofShares,”TheJournalofBusiness,Vol.34,No.4,October1961,411-433.
2StewartC.Myers,“DeterminantsofCorporateBorrowing,”JournalofFinancialEconomics,Vol.5,No.2,November1977,147-175.Also,seeRichardA.Brealey,StewartC.Myers,FranklinAllen,andAlexEdmans,PrinciplesofCorporateFinance(NewYork:McGrawHill,2025),4.18-4.24andRichardE.Ottoo,ValuationofCorporateGrowthOpportunities:ARealOptionsApproach(NewYork:GarlandPublishing,2000).
3ThisisclosetotheJune1,2026estimatebyAswathDamodaran,aprofessoroffinanceatNewYorkUniversity.See
/~adamodar/.
4Thisapproachbreakspriceinto“earningspower”and“franchisevalue.”SeeMartinL.Leibowitz,“FranchiseValuationunderQ-TypeCompetition,”FinancialAnalystsJournal,Vol.54,No.6,November/December1998,62-74;MartinL.Leibowitz,FranchiseValue:AModernApproachtoSecurityAnalysis(Hoboken,NJ:JohnWiley&Sons,2004);andMartinL.LeibowitzandStanleyKogelman,“FranchiseValueandthePrice/EarningsRatio,”TheResearchFoundationoftheAssociationforInvestmentManagementandResearch,1994.
5Thismethodisbasedonfreecashflowtoequity,whichassumesthatearningsareaproxyfordistributablecashforequityholders.Anotherapproach,morecommoninfinance,isfreecashflowtoenterprise,whichtakesthecashflowdistributabletodebtandequityholderstoestimateafirm’senterprisevalueandsubtractsdebttodetermineequityvalue.
6JavierEstrada,aprofessoroffinanceattheIESEBusinessSchool,usesasimilarapproachanddatafrom1872to2021.Hecomesupwithmuchstrongerresultsthanwedo,includingamonotonicdeclineinreturnsforthemarketfromthelowesttohighestPVGOsasapercentofprice.Wecouldnotreplicatehisresults.SeeJavierEstrada,“PVGOandExpectedStockReturns,”JournalofAppliedCorporateFinance,Vol.34,No.4,Fall2022,109-112.
7ThereisasubstantialamountofresearchonthevalueofPVGOforindividualcompanies.Onehighly-citedpaperisW.CarlKester,“Today'sOptionsforTomorrow'sGrowth,”HarvardBusinessReview,Vol.62,No.2,March-April1984,153-160.OtherstestedKester’sapproachandfoundthattheresultsareverysensitivetotheinputs:seeJoDanbolt,IanHirst,andEdwardJones,“MeasuringGrowthOpportunities,”AppliedFinancialEconomics,Vol.12,No.3,March2002,203-212.ThereisworkonthecharacteristicsoffirmswithhighPVGO,includingMichaelS.Long,JohnK.Wald,andJingfengZhang,“ACross-sectionalAnalysisofFirmGrowthOptions,”WorkingPaper,November5,2002.AnotherthreadshowsthatinvestorshaveabiasforpayingtoomuchforPVGO.SeeHershShefrin,“FreeCashFlows,ValuationandGrowthOpportunitiesBias,”JournalofInvestmentManagement,Vol.12,No.4,FourthQuarter2014,4-26andCynthiaM.Gong,XindanLi,DiLuo,andHuainanZhao,“TheBiasofGrowthOpportunity,”EuropeanFinancialManagement,Vol.28,No.4,September2022,926-963.Foragoodsummarypaper,seeJohnD.MartinandMarkM.McNabb,“EquityValuation,GrowthOpportunities,andFranchiseValue—WhatWasOldIsNewAgain,”WorkingPaper,September2022.
8Notably,ourestimateofNOPATincludesanadjustmentforintangibleinvestment.
9EugeneF.FamaandKennethR.French,“TheCross-SectionofExpectedStockReturns,”JournalofFinance,Vol.47,No.2,June1992,427-465andEugeneF.FamaandKennethR.French,“CommonRiskFactorsintheReturnsonStocksandBonds,”JournalofFinancialEconomics,Vol.33,No.1,February1993,3-56.
10BaruchLevandAnupSrivastava,“ExplainingtheRecentFailureofValueInvesting,”CriticalFinanceReview,Vol.11,No.2,May2022,333-360.
11WarrenE.Buffett,“Chairman’sLettertotheShareholders,”BerkshireHathaway,2000.
©2026MorganStanley.Allrightsreserved.5569467Exp.6/30/202814
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