房地产 -城市轨道交通对奥克兰房地产的影响 City Rail Link Real Estate Impact in Auckland

RealEstate

ImpactsoftheCityRailLink

REPORT

FutureCities|NewZealandResearch

CBRERESEARCHJUNE2026

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

2NEWZEALANDCBRERESEARCHCopyright©2026CBRE.Allrightsreserved.

Contents

1

ExecutiveSummary

2

IntroductionandProjectOverview

3.1

Themechanism:accessibility,agglomerationandtheannouncementeffect

3.2

Globalevidence

3.3

Localprecedent:Britomart2003

3

HowTransportInvestmentCreatesRealEstateValue

4.1

Traveltimesavings

4.2

Accesstojobs

4

TheCRL:TravelTimeandAccessibilityGains

5.1

Patronage

5.1

Residentialpricingacrossstationcatchments

5.2

Thesupplyresponseandthemutedannouncementeffect

5.3

OfficeabsorptionandCBDhollowing-out

5

TheAucklandEvidenceSoFar

6

ThePlanningResponse:PlanChange120

7

SectorImplications

7.1

Office

7.2

Retail

7.3

Hotelsandhospitality

7.4

Industrial

7.5

Residential

7.6

Investmentmarketandyields

7.7

Carparking

8

Place-BasedOpportunities

8.1

Midtown(TeWaihorotiu)

8.2

MtEden(Maungawhau)

8.3

Karanga-a-Hape

8.4

Westernlinestations

8.5

Southernstations

8.6

Transit-oriented

developments

9

RisksandDownsideScenarios

10

BarrierstoCapturingtheUpside

11

ConclusionandOutlook

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01

ExecutiveSummary

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

4NEWZEALANDCBRERESEARCHCopyright©2026CBRE.Allrightsreserved.

ExecutiveSummary

Soon,Auckland’sCityRailLink(CRL)willopenafteradecadeofconstructionanda$5.5bnbuildcost.Itsrealestate

consequencesextendwellbeyondfastercommutes:theCRLrecalibratesaccessibilityacrosstheAucklandregion,andaccessibilityisaprimaryinfluenceonlanduse,propertyvalues,andthespatialpatternofnewdevelopment.

HeadlineFindings

01

02

03

TheannouncementeffecthasbeenpresentinAuckland.

Residentialpricesinstationcatchmentshavegrown36%overtenyearsagainstanAuckland-wide

averageof29%.Forseveralstationlocationstheannouncementeffecthasalsomaterializedasnewhousingsupply.

ImprovedpositioningwillhelpabsorptionintheCBDofficemarket.

PostCovid-19CBDvacancyof18.4%sitsalongsideCBREofficeoccupiersurveyevidencethatmorebusinessesrankproximitytopublictransportasatoplocationpriority.TheCRLconvertsthatdesireintoacrediblerelocationthesis.

MtEden(Maungawhau)isthemajornewdevelopmentopportunity

Government-owned,masterplannable,andnow

fiveminutesfrommidtown—themostcontrollableupsideonthenetwork.

04

05

06

07

MidtownastheepicentreoftheAuckland’seconomy.

ThestrongestaccessibilityprofileonthenetworkhasdrivenanticipatoryinvestmentintheleaduptotheCRL.

Industrialsectorbenefitsoccurindirectly.

Reducedroadcongestionandviableouter-urbanprecinctsarethemainmechanisms.

Build-to-rentisthemostcredibleapartmentdeliveryvehicleinthenearterm.

For-saleapartmentbuildingsatscaleremain

difficultwithpresalevolumesnearrecordlows;BTRavoidsthisandisalreadyclusteringaroundstations.

Thebiggestdownsideriskispatronage.

Useofrailasamainmeansoftraveltoworkfell

from2.9%(2018)to1.6%(2023).If‘workfromhome’continuestosuppresspatronage,theassumedrealestateupliftwillbeslowerandshallowerthanglobalprecedentssuggest.

WhatCBREexpectsover2026–2036

Sector

Direction

CBDoffice(Prime)

Absorption;flighttoconnectivity;rentalrecoveryintandemwithimprovingeconomy

CBDoffice(Secondary)

Bifurcation;redevelopmentorrepurposingforthosethatcan;obsolescenceforthosethatcan’t

Retail

(CBDandstation-adjacent)

Foottrafficuplift;foodandbeverageandconvenience-led;redistributionratherthanuniformgrowth

Industrial

Lossofolderstockingentrifyingsuburbs;new

developmentsinlocationsthatarecustomeraccessible

Residential

(stationcatchments)

Modestdirectuplift;biggerupliftonparcelsthatcanberedevelopedunderPC120

Build-to-rent

Mainapartmentdeliveryvehicleduringtheearlyoperationalyears;clusteringaroundrailnodes

Hotels

CBDcatchmentmostexposedtoupside

Investmentyields

Someyieldcompressionforstation-adjacentassetsrelativetonon-catchmentcomparables

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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02

Introduction&ProjectOverview

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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IntroductionandProjectOverview

TheCityRailLink isnotjustatransportstory.

MayorLenBrown

OurAuckland

21January2016

TheCRListhemostexpensivetransportinfrastructureprojectinNewZealand’shistory.Itscoreengineeringachievementoftwo3.45kmtunnelsandtwonew

undergroundCBDstationsconvertsBritomartfromaterminusintoathrough

station.Thisunlocksrailcapacityacrosstheentirenetworkbyenablingagreaterfrequencyofservicesthatwillhelppeoplegettotheplacestheyneedtogo

faster,elevatingtheutilityofrailasamodeoftransportandultimatelyimprovingaccessibilityacrosstheurbanarea.Theeffectonaccessistheleverthatturnsatransportprojectintoarealestateproject.

Thisreportsetsouttheglobalevidencebaseofotherrailinvestmentsimpactsontheirrealestatesector,theAucklandevidenceaccumulatedduringthebuild,and

thesector-by-sectorimplicationsforthedecadeahead.Itisintendedforinvestors,developers,occupiersandcapitalallocatorsmakingdecisionswhosepay-offperiodsextendbeyondtheCRL’sopeningdate.

ProjectFacts

$11.9B

Modelledeconomicbenefits

NewCBD

Stations

TeWaihorotiu(midtown),Karanga-a-Hape,plustheredevelopedWaitematā(Britomart)andMaungawhau(MtEden).

2026

Openingyear

$5.5B

Cost

45

Followingsouthernlineextensions

Stations

TOTAL

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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Groundbreakingceremony

2022

Tunnelboring

machinecompletes

finalbreakthrough

2026Fullyoperational

Timeline

Centralgovernmentfinancialsupportannounced

2013

2016

Firstbreakthrough connectingAlbertStreettunnelstoCommercialBay

2018

2020

TunnelboringmachinearrivesinAuckland

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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03

HowTransportInvestmentCreatesRealEstateValue

3.1Themechanism:accessibility,agglomerationandtheannouncementeffect

3.2Globalevidence

3.3Localprecedent:Britomart2003

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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HowTransportInvestmentCreatesRealEstateValue

3.1Themechanism:accessibility,agglomerationandtheannouncementeffect

Threeeconomicmechanismsconverttransportinvestmentintorealestatevalue:

01

02

03

Accessibility

Landvalueisinlargepartafunctionofwhatcanbereachedfromaparcelwithinagiventraveltime.Improvingaccessibilityextendstheeffectivecatchmentofasiteforlabour,customersandamenity,andiscapitalisedintoprices.

Agglomeration

Firmsandhouseholdsclusterbecauseproximityraisesproductivity,expands

matching,andlowerstransactioncosts.TheCRLincreasestheeffectivesizeoftheAucklandCBDagglomerationbyshorteningthetime-distancebetweenthecity

centreandtherestoftheregion.

Theannouncementeffect

Marketsarepricedonexpectationoffutureaccessibility,notjustcurrent

accessibility.Internationalevidenceconsistentlyshowsrealestatevalueuplift

beginningwellbeforeaprojectopens,andinsomecases,severalyearsaheadof

theactualdelivery.Thiseffecthasbeenseeninprojectswhererailstationsalreadyexistedbutwereimprovedwithmajorinvestmentsaswellasinprojectsthat

createdbrandnewstations.

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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3.2GlobalEvidence

CBREResearchundertookaliteraturereviewoflocalandinternationalworksfromacademicandindustrysourcesonthepropertyimpactsofurbanrailinvestment,togainan

understandingofhowotherprojectshaveimpactedtheirlocalmarketrealestatepricing,propertydevelopment,andrailutilisation.TheprojectsthatwerecanvasseddifferinscopetotheCRLprojectwhichchangesaterminusstationintoathroughstationtounlocktotalnetworkcapacity,

makingitafundamentallydifferentprojecttosomeof

theglobalexampleswherewholenewraillineshave

beencreated.Withdueconsiderationofhowsituationaldifferencesmightapply,theresearchfindingshavebeenclusteredintofourthemes.

TheimplicationforAucklandistwofold.First,theaccessibilityimpactoftheCRLshouldalreadybevisibleinproperty

pricing.Second,newsupplyupliftwilllikelyoccuratstationswithcapacity—pointingstronglytoMaungawhau(MtEden),thesouthernextensionstations,andgentrifyingwesternlinesuburbsthatcurrentlyhavesemi-industriallanduses.

Theme

Keyfinding

Whentheimpactbegins

Realestateimpactsbeginatannouncement,notatopening.

Example1:Motu’s‘AnticipatoryEffectsofRailUpgrades:Auckland’sWesternLine’(2010)foundastatisticallysignificantriseinthevaluesofhouseslocatedneara

westernlinestationuponannouncementoftheAucklandrailupgradeproject.Thepaperalsociteda2004studybyMcMillenandMcDonaldwhichfoundanticipatedbenefitsofanewtransitlinetobecapitalizedintohousepricessixyearsbeforetheconstructionofthelinewascompleted.

Example2:CBRE’sresearchreportontheSydneymetrorailnetwork‘Metro-fication2.0’(2025)foundhighervalueupliftofapartmentsnearCityandSouthwestlinestationsuburbs,comparedtoneighbouringsuburbs.Thishigherupliftstartedfiveyearsbeforeopeningin2024,despiteretailspendonlyliftingpost-delivery.

Landandpropertyvalue

Newrailinfrastructureincreaseslandvalues.

Example1:AParliamentofAustraliainquiryintotheroleoftransportconnectivityonstimulatingdevelopmentandeconomicactivityfoundalargeamountof

evidenceontheeffectofnewpublictransportinfrastructureonlandvalues.AreviewconductedbytheBureauofInfrastructureandTransportResearchEconomicsof18heavyrailprojectsfoundanaveragevalueupliftduetotheinfrastructureof6.9%.

Example2:CBRE’sresearchreport‘Crossrail:TheImpactonLondon’sPropertyMarket’(2014)identifiedthatsincetheprojecthadgotthegoahead,housepricesaroundaffectedstationshadincreasedby20%.ThiswasontopofunderlyingcapitalappreciationinLondonandtheSouthEast,andoccurredseveralyearsin

advanceofthefirstlinesbecomingoperational.

Networkutilisation

Ridershipincreasesuponcompletion.

Example1:CBRE’sMetro-fication2.0reportanalysedstationusagetrendsbeforeandafterdeliveryofmetrolines.Itfoundthatofficenodeshadbeenamajorbeneficiaryofthenewnetwork,withusageatthemajorofficenodeofMartinPlaceincreasingby~50%sincedeliveryin2024.

Example2:Whileridershiptendstojumpimmediatelyatthemostpopularstations,amoregradualupliftathistoricallyunderservedoneshasbeenobserved.TheMetro-fication2.0reportnotedthatridersatTallawongwhohadpreviouslybeenunderservedbytransithavetakensometimetoadjust,butwithridershipgrowthcontinuingmorethanfiveyearsafterdelivery,therewasfurtherpotentialforupliftgoingforward.

Propertydevelopmentresponse

Railinvestmentleadstopropertydevelopment.

Example1:In2013theOMEGACentreatUCLprofiledtheJubileeLineExtension(JLE)whichcompletedin1999.TheresearchfoundthatresidentialdevelopmenthadincreasedatafasterrateintheJLEcorridorthantherestofinnereastLondonreferenceareasincetheJLEwasapproved.In1991and1992thenumberofnewdwellingsinthecorridorwas17%ofthetotalreferencearea,whilebetween1993and2000itwas34%.

Example2:CBRE’sCrossrailreportnotedthatinthe1980s,theIsleofDogshadnoofficemarket,howeverthearrivaloftheDocklandsLightRailway,andoveradecadelatertheJubileeLine,helpedtransformCanaryWharfintooneofLondon’sleadingofficemarkets.

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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3.3Localprecedent:Britomart,2003

Britomart’sopeningin2003istheclosestlocal

precedenttoamajorCBDrailstationcomingonline.

InthedecadefollowingBritomart’sopening,thesurroundingprecinctwentfromalow-gradewarehouseandsurface-CarparkingfringetooneofAuckland’smostprimemixed-use

precincts,withrentsandcapitalvaluesthatconsistently

outperformthewiderCBD.Thestationopeningactedasacatalystforawiderprecinctmasterplanthathadastrongemphasisonplacemakingandaqualityurbanenvironment.

Lookingcloselyatcommerciallandvalueperformancepost

stationopening,theaccelerationinvaluetookafewyears

togathermomentumwithmuchofthestructuraluplift

occurringduringaperiodwhenthewiderpropertymarketwasstrengthening.Thedataindicatesthatsomewidercitywide

economicforcesneedtobeatplaybutthatthegrowthrateincommerciallandvaluearoundstationlocationscanbeboostedaheadofthewidermarketgrowthduetonewinfrastructure.

TheBritomartprecedentsupportstheideathatthebrandnewTeWaihorotiuandKaranga-a-Hapestationswillmaterially

reshapetheirimmediateprecincts.Italsohighlightsthetime

horizon—thebulkofBritomart’supliftoccurred3-5yearsafteropening,notinthefirst24months.Investorsexpectinga2027step-changeinmidtownvaluesarelikelytobedisappointedbuthistoricevidencesuggeststhatinvestorswitha5+yearhorizonwon’tbe.

Index

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

JUN03JUN04JUN05JUN06JUN07JUN08JUN09JUN10JUN11JUN12JUN13

Date

QueenStAlbertStCustomsSt(Britomart)HighStMixeduseandsuburbancommercial

Indicativecommerciallandvalues(IndexJune2003=100)

Source:CBRE

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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04

TheCRL:TravelTime&AccessibilityGains

4.1Traveltimesavings

4.2Accesstojobs

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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TheCRL:TravelTimeandAccessibilityGains

4.1Traveltimesavings

TheCRLreducestraveltimesnotbyrunningtrainsfasterbutbymakingjourneystoand

fromnewmidtownstationsmoredirect,andbyreducingcongestiononcompetingroadroutes.Railtraveltimesavingsvarybyline:

ThereshapingofAuckland’seffectivetime-geography

expressedastheproportionoffuturetimesavingson

journeysismoremeaningfulforrealestatethanheadline

minutecounts.Formanypeople,thesouthernfringe

becomesaviablecommutingcatchmentforCBDjobsina

wayitwasnotbefore,andsuburbanweststationofMtAlbertbecomeseffectivelyasclosetomidtownaswhatParnellandOrakeiaretoday.

WESTERNLINE

20min

morethan20minutessavedonjourneysintomidtown.Western

Linetravellersnolongerdetour

viaNewmarket;instead,theyenterthecityviaMaungawhau.

SOUTHERNLINE

10min

morethan10minutessaved.Pukekohe-to-midtownimprovesby15minutesdespitethree

newintermediatestations.

EASTERNLINE

10min

sub-10minuteimprovement

ONEHUNGALINE

5min

approximately5minutessaved

%Proportionofjourneytimesaved

Swanson

Ranui

SturgesRoad

Henderson

Sunnyvale

GlenEden

FruitvaleRoad

NewLynn

Avondale

MtAlbert

BaldwinAve

Morningside

Kingsland

Grafton

Newmarket

Parnell

Papakura

Pukekohe

Takaanini

TeMahia

Manurewa

Homai

Puhinui

Papatoetoe

Middlemore

Otahuhu

Penrose

Ellerslie

Greenlane

Remuera

Onehunga

TePapapa

Manukau

SylviaPark

Panmure

GlenInnes

Medowbank

Orakei

PostCRLtraveltimesavingsforjourneystomidtowninthemorningpeak

Source:AucklandTransport,CBRESaving%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

90%

80%

0%

FUTURECITIESRealEstateImpactsoftheCityRailLink

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4.2Accesstojobs

Awalkablecatchmentforrapidtransitstationsisusuallydefinedasa10minutewalk,howevera2013paperbyAucklandCounciltitled‘WalkableCatchmentsAnalysisatAucklandTrainandNorthernBuswayStations’foundevidencethatmorethan50%ofsurveyrespondentswalkedfurtherthan800mtogettoatrainstation,andmorethan15%walkedfurtherthan1,500mi.e.acirca20minutewalk.Timesavingsfrom

CRL,highfuelprices,mildwinterweather,andtheroleofphysicalmobilityinlong

termhealthmeansthatweconsideritreasonableforwalkablecatchmentstoextendbeyond800m,howeverforthepurposesofthisanalysis,wehaveusedthestandarddefinitionbeinga10minutewalk.

Walkablerailaccesscorrelateswiththeagglomerationpotentialofeachstation.

Withina10minutewalk,thethreeCBDstationscanaccessasizeablechunkofthe

centralcityspine.MRCagneyd