伯恩斯坦-亚洲新兴机器人：人形机器人：真正的护城河-Asia Emerging Robotics Humanoid Robotics：The True Moats-20260629

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FirstPublished:28Jun202620:30UTCCompletionDate:26Jun202611:08UTC

LONGVIEW【价值目2录9】Jn整e理2：026

AsiaEmergingRobotics

HumanoidRobotics:TheTrueMoats

DienWang,Ph.D.

+85221232622

dien.wang@

StacyA.Rasgon

,Ph.D.+12135595917

stacy.rasgon@

RobinZhu

+85221232659

robin.zhu@

DavidDai,CFA

+85229185704

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LaurentYoon

+19173448502

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Min-JooKang

+85221232644

minjoo.kang@

JayHuang

,Ph.D.

+85221232631

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WeibinLiang,Ph.D.

+85221232666

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HyrumCaesar

+81367776979

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JackLin

+85221232683

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CarmineMilano,CFA

+442077621857

ano@

AndrewChung

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AlrickShaw

+19173448454

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Inourinitiation(here),webelievedthatitwasstilltooearlytoidentifytheultimatewinnersinhumanoidrobotics.Wecontinuetoseemeaningfulsecond-moveradvantagesinthisspace(Exhibit1),particularlyasfirst-movershaveyettoestablishdurablemoats.Therefore,wewouldliketoassesswhatwillultimatelyemergeastheindustry’struemoats.

Technologycanconferanadvantage,butnotamoat.InChina,techleadsareshort-

lived(withatypicalleadwindowof1~2years)andquicklyerodedwithoutsustained

innovation,particularlywhencompaniesmisjudgetechnologypathsorhitinnovation

ceilings.Thispattern,seeninsolarandnewenergyvehicles,isnowemerginginhumanoidrobotics:stronglocomotioncapabilityhasrapidlyshiftedfromadifferentiatortoabaseline,withlateentrantsevenovertakingfirstmovers(here).

MoatsforhumanoidrobotOEMsarelikelytorestonfourpillars:high-valuedata,

ecosystem,IP&brand,andcostleadership.1)High-valuedata(Exhibit9),e.g.corner-cases,iskeytopushingroboticperformancefrom95%towardnear-perfectreliability,

whichinturnenablesbroaderroboticdeployment.2)Ecosystemisaclassicmoat,withself-reinforcingloopdrivingusergrowthandretention(Exhibit11).However,itremainsunclearwhetheritwillbeledbyhumanoidpure-playsorbyincumbentsintegratingrobotsintotheirexistingecosystems.3)IP&brand(e.g.Tesla,Sony,Nintendo,Disney,Hybe)willbecomeincreasinglyimportantdifferentiatorswhenrobotsenterconsumermarkets(Exhibit16

toExhibit20).4)Costleadershipwillremaincriticalformassadoptionandcompetitive

advantage(Exhibit15).Sofar,however,nocompanyappearstohavebuiltatrulydefensiblemoatinhumanoidrobotics.

Componentsuppliershaveaclearerpathtobuildingmoats.Theadvantagesthatdrovesuccessintheirexistingend-marketsarelikelytocarryoverintohumanoidrobotics.Weseethreecoremoats:superiorqualitycontrolinmassproduction,costleadership,

andrapid-responseR&D.Whilebest-in-classqualityandcostcontrolremaintraditionalleanmanufacturingadvantages,rapid-responseR&Disincreasinglyimportantinmeetingcustomers’evolvingneedsanddeepeningpartnerships.Shuanghuan,thegloballeaderingears&reducers,standsoutasarareplayerthathasbuiltdeepmoatsandcontinuestogainshareacrossmultipleverticals.Amongsemicomponentssuppliers,Infineon

andRenesasarekeybeneficiariesgiventheirestablishedindustryleadershipandbroadproductportfoliosspanningpowersemiconductors,analog,sensing,connectivity,etc.

ComputeandsoftwareplatformprovidersalsohaveaclearpathtobuildingmoatswithNVDAandQCOMattheforefrontofdevelopingprocessorsthatfunctionasthe“brain”

oftherobot,allowingittoprocesssensordata,reason,plan,andexecuteactionsquickly.

Thesearehighlycomplicatedsystemsolutionsthataredifficultdevelopwithoutexpertiseinsemiconductordesignanddeepengagementswithdevelopersandcustomers,somethingbothNVDAandQCOMhavecultivatedovertheyears.Furthermore,NVDAoffersfull-stackrobotics,withanecosystemspanningacrosstraining,models,simulationandon-robot

inference,whichfurtherensurescontinuedengagement,designwinsanddeployment.

ThoughnotquiteasextensiveasNVIDIA’secosystem,QCOM’sworkflowisalsoend-to-end,withthecompanybuildinghardware,generatingdataandmodels,anddeployingintocustomerenvironments,alsoensuringcontinuedcustomerengagement.

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

TableOfContents

HumanoidRobotOEMs 2

ComponentsSuppliers 14

ComputeandSoftwarePlatformProviders 22

InvestmentImplications 27

DETAILS

HUMANOIDROBOTOEMS

Humanoidrobotics,anindustrywithsecond-moveradvantages.Todate,theprimarytechnologicalbottleneckshave

shifted:hardwareandmotioncontrol,oncethekeyconstraints,arenolongerthelimitingfactors.Instead,thecorechallengeliesinroboticintelligence,orthe“brain,”whichultimatelydefinesthepaceandscopeofcommercialization.Asaresult,real-worlddeploymentofhumanoidrobotsremainslimited.Whileseveralleadingplayershaveemerged,nocompanyhassecuredadominantpositionorbuiltadurablemoatacrossconsumer,commercial,orindustrialapplications.Thiscreatesacompellingopportunityforwell-establishedincumbentsfromvariousindustriestoavoidmuchofthecostlytrial-and-errorfacedbyfirst-movers,andacceleratealongaclearertechnologicalpath(Exhibit1).

Technologycanconferanadvantage,butnotamoat.InChina,asingletechnologicalinnovationtypicallyprovidesonly

a1-to-2-yearlead,whichrequirescontinuousinnovationtosustain.However,misjudgingthetechnologicalpath(especially

withoutrealcustomerfeedback)orfacingdiminishinginnovationheadroomcanquicklyerodethisleadasfollowerscatchuprapidly.Thisdynamichasbeenevidentinindustriessuchassolarandnewenergyvehiclesoverthepastfiveyearsandisnowemerginginhumanoidrobotics.In2024,onlyafewcompanies’robotsdemonstratedstronglocomotioncapability.Today,thishasrapidlybecomeabaselinefeatureratherthanadifferentiator.Moreover,lateentrantscanevensurpassfirstmovers.Forexample,Honor,theChinesesmartphonemaker,developedarobotinlessthanayearthatoutperformedallcompetitorsatthe2026HumanoidRobotHalf-Marathonandsweptthetopsixplaces(here).

Webelievethelong-termmoatsinhumanoidroboticswillcomefrom:high-valuedata,ecosystem,IP&brand,andcostleadership.

•High-valuedata.Withtherobotic“brain”stillimmature(Exhibit2),industrydebateremainscenteredonthefeasibility

andpotentialofdifferenttechnicalpaths,suchasVLAmodelsvs.Worldmodels(Exhibit3toExhibit5),andonwhichdata

collectionapproaches(Exhibit7,Exhibit8)canscaleandmeaningfullyimproveroboticperformance.Weseegrowing

evidencethatscalinglawsalsoapplytorobotics(Exhibit6),pointingtotheincreasingimportanceofdataassets.Atsome

pointinthefuture,whentechnicalpathsconverge,sustainingdifferentiatedcompetitionwillbecomedifficult,because

corealgorithmicideascanbederivedfromacademicresearch,experiencespreadquicklythroughtalentmobility,andlargevolumesofgeneraldatacanbeavailablefromthemarket.Bycontrast,theassetdifficulttoreplicateisreal-worldoperationaldatacollectedduringrobotdeployment(Exhibit9),whichwedefineashigh-valuedata.Thistypeofdatacapturesrare

objects,complexenvironments,specializedinstructions,andcornercasesthatarecriticaltoimprovingroboticperformancefrom~95%tonear-perfectreliability,andarenoteasilyaccessibletocompetitors.Somestartups,suchasGalbot,have

alreadyrecognizeditsimportanceandplaceditatthetopoftheirdatapyramid.Ananalogycanbedrawntohumanlearning:

teenagedriversmaycompletesubstantialgeneraltraining,yetstillfacemuchhigheraccidentratesbecausetheylackreal-worlddrivingexperience(Exhibit10).Thesamelogicappliestorobots,andweseethehigh-valuedatamaypowerdata

flywheeltodeepenthemoat:morehigh-valuedataimprovesroboticperformance,betterperformanceenablesbroaderroboticdeployment,andmorerobotsinturngeneratemorehigh-valuedata.

•Ecosystem.Ecosystemsareamongthemostpowerfulmoatsbecausetheycreateself-reinforcingloopsthatdriveusergrowthandretention(Exhibit11).Thekeyuncertaintyiswhetherhumanoidrobotpure-playscanbuildanewstandaloneecosystemorwhetherincumbentsintegraterobotsintotheirexistingecosystems,suchasthosedevelopedbyApple

andHuawei(Exhibit12).Thisiswhywebelievetheexpansionpotentialofindustryincumbentsinthisfieldshouldnotbeunderestimated.

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DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

•IP&brand.Whenhumanoidrobotsmoveintoconsumermarkets,IP(IntellectualProperty)andbrandwillbecome

increasinglyimportant.Inearlystages,whenfunctionalityremainslimited,theycanimproveusertoleranceforimperfect

performance.Ascapabilitiesmature,theywillbecomekeysourcesofdifferentiation.Manycompaniesarealreadyexploringemotionalengagementaspartoftheiroffering,e.g.DisneyhasdevelopedroboticOlaf(Exhibit16).TheplayersthatleveragestrongIPandbrandtounlocktheconsumermarketearlyaremorelikelytoactivatethedataflywheelsooner,andeven

potentiallybuildecosystemmoat.

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•Costleadership.FallingcostsimprovetheROIofhumanoidrobots(Exhibit13andExhibit14)andmakethemaffordabletoabroaderconsumerbase.Companiesthatachievemass-marketpricepointsearlierarebetterpositionedtounlockdemandaheadofcompetitors.Inaddition,costandpricingwillremaincriticalcompetitivefactors,asdemonstratedbytheclearcostadvantagesofChinesenewenergyvehiclesintheglobalmarket(Exhibit15).

Overall,wehavenotseenwhichcompanyhasestablishedatrulydurablemoatinhumanoidrobotics.However,established

incumbentsfromvariousindustrieshavethepotentialtotransfertheirexistingstrengths(e.g.experience,resource,talentpool)intohumanoidroboticsandtaketheleadinbuildingbarriersinspecificareas.

EXHIBIT1:Humanoidrobotplayers:Competitiontointensifyduetosecond-moveradvantages

Note:BYD,Xiaomi,XPeng,LiAuto,SAICandGACGrouparecoveredbyBernsteinAsianAutosteam.SamsungiscoveredbyBernsteinGlobalMemoryteam.AppleiscoveredbyBernsteinU.S.ITHardwareteam.Meta,GoogleandAmazonarecoveredbyBernsteinU.S.Internetteam.HexagoniscoveredbyBernsteinEuropeanCapitalGoodsteam.Tencent,JD.comandMeituanarecoveredbyBernsteinChinaInternetteam.WaltDisneyiscoveredbyBernsteinUSMedia&Telecomteam.ToyotaiscoveredbyBernsteinJapanAutos&AutoPartsteam.OthersarenotlistedorcoveredbyBernstein.

Source:Companywebsites,WikiCommons,Doubao(forcreatingimages),Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT2:Thetechnicalchallengesofhumanoidrobots:The“brain”

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Source:NVIDIA,industrychannelcheck,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT3:VLA(Vision-Language-Action)modelsandworldmodelsaretwocommonlyusedapproachestobuildingthe“brain”ofhumanoidrobots

Source:“ASurveyofEmbodiedWorldModels”,Bernsteinanalysis

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT4:VLAmodelshavebeenevolvingrapidlyoverthepastfewyears

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Note:Colorsindicatethearchitecturalfamily:autoregressive(blue),flow-based(red),diffusion-based(green),hardwareplatforms(orange),andhybrid/efficientmethods(purple)

Source:“Vision-Language-Action(VLA)ModelsforUnmannedAerialRoboticsandBimanualManipulation:AReview”,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT5:Worldmodelshavealsoevolvedrapidly,buthaveyettoconverge

Source:“TowardsGeneralistEmbodiedAI:ASurveyonWorldModelsforVLAAgents”,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT6:Scalinglawforhumanoidrobots:Datascalevs.Validationloss

Source:“EgoScale:ScalingDexterousManipulationwithDiverseEgocentricHumanData”,Bernsteinanalysis

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT7:Fourmainstreamdatacollectionapproaches

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Note:Theimageswerefrom“EgoScale:ScalingDexterousManipulationwithDiverseEgocentricHumanData”,“SONIC:SupersizingMotionTrackingforNaturalHumanoidWhole-BodyControl”,“HumanoidMimicGen:DataGenerationforLoco-ManipulationviaWhole-BodyPlanning”,and“GR00TN1:AnOpenFoundationModelforGeneralistHumanoidRobots”

Source:NVIDIA,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT8:Mixedtrainingdata(e.g.,simulation,real-worldteleoperation,humanvideos,etc.)hasbecomeamajortrend

Source:“LDA-1B:ScalingLatentDynamicsActionModelviaUniversalEmbodiedDataIngestion”,Bernsteinanalysis

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT9:DatapyramidproposedbyGalbot:Real-worldlive-rundatawillbethemostvaluable

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Source:Galbot,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT10:Newdrivershavesignificantlyhighercrashrates,mainlyduetoalackofreal-worlddrivingexperience(similartorobots’lackofreal-worldlive-rundata)

Source:U.S.InsuranceInstituteforHighwaySafety(IIHS)andHighwayLossDataInstitute(HLDI),Bernsteinanalysis

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT11:Anecosystemcreatesaself-reinforcingloopthatdrivesbothusergrowthandretention

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Source:Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT12:Huaweihasbuiltanall-scenarioHMS(HuaweiMobileServices)ecosystemwithacomprehensiveportfolioofhardwareandapplications

Source:Huawei,Bernsteinanalysis

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT14:China:Humanoidrobotpricevs.Paybackperiod

EXHIBIT13:TheU.S.:Humanoidrobotpricevs.Paybackperiod

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Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS),Robozaps,Bernsteinanalysisand

estimates

Source:ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Robozaps,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT15:Costasakeymoat:Anexamplefromtheglobalautomotiveindustry

Source:IEA,Bernsteinanalysis

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

IPANDBRAND

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Humanoidrobotsholdenormouspromisefortheconsumermarket,butadoptioninthehomemaynotbeasstraightforwardasthetechnologyroadmapsuggests.Imaginewalkingintoyourhomeandbeinggreetednotbyapetorafamiliarvoiceassistant,butbyahumanoid-shapedmachine—a“hunkofmetal”withhumanproportions,yetfundamentallyunfamiliar.Despiteitsutility,suchapresencecouldfeelalien,evenunsettling,tomanyhouseholds.

Thechallengeisnotprimarilytechnical—itisemotionalandpsychological.Thevaluepropositionofhumanoidrobotsisclear:theycouldeventuallyhandlehouseholdchores,serveaspersonalizedentertainmentorrecommendationagents(“What’s

everyonewatchingthesedays?”),andactasamobileembodimentofAIsystemsthatalreadyexiststoday.Infact,aspects

likeconversationalintelligenceor“mobileAGI”arearguablyeasiertodeliverinthenear-termthandexterousphysicaltaskslikefoldinglaundryorcooking.Asaresult,earlyconsumerrobotsmaybefunctionallylimited—capableofmovingaroundandinteracting,butnotyetfullyreplacinghumanlaborinthehome.

Inthisinterimphase,whencapabilitiesarestillcatchinguptoambition,differentiationmaymatterlessinwhatrobotscandoandmoreinhowhumansfeelaboutthem.ThisiswhereIPscouldplayanimportantrole.

Familiar,belovedcharacters,suchasDisney’sOlaf(Exhibit16)andCaptainAmerica,offersomethingthatrawhardwarecannot—instantemotionalrecognition,connection,andtrust.Arobotthatlooksandbehaveslikeaknowncharactercanreducethe

cognitiveandemotionalfrictionofintroducinganewkindof“being”intothehome.Forchildrenespecially,interactingwitharobotmodeledafterafriendlycharactercouldfeelnatural,evendelightful,ratherthanawkwardorintimidating.

Inthiscase,IPactsasabridgebetweencutting-edgetechnologyandhumanacceptance.AnOlaf-likerobotdoesnotjust

performtasks—itembodiespersonality,narrative,andculturalfamiliarity.Thatfamiliaritycansignificantlyincreaseusers’

tolerancefortherobot’searlylimitations,whetherthosearefunctionalconstraints,occasionalerrors,orawkwardmovements.

Importantly,thissuggeststhattheearlycompetitivefrontierinconsumerhumanoidroboticsmaynotbedefinedsolelyby

engineeringprowessandsupplychainadvantage,butbyecosystemstrategy.CompaniesthatpairhardwareandAIcapabilitieswithstrongIPcouldaccelerateadoptioncurvesbymakingrobotsfeellessliketoolsandmorelikecompanions,perhapsevenafamilymember.

Overtime,ascapabilitiesimproveandrobotsbecomemoreseamlessintegratedintodailylife,theimportanceofIPmaydiminishrelativetoutility.Butintheearlystages—whentrustisfragileandexpectationsarestillforming—recognition,familiarity,andemotionalresonancemaybeanimportantadoptiondrivers.

Inshort,thedifferencebetweena“hunkofmetal”andacharacterlikeOlafisnotjustaesthetic—itcouldbethedifference

betweenhesitationandacceptance.Andinanascentmarket,thatdifferencecouldshapethespeedandtrajectoryofadoption.

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT16:DisneyhasdevelopedaroboticOlaf

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Source:“Olaf:BringinganAnimatedCharactertoLifeinthePhysicalWorld”,Disney,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT17:AlmostanythingthatcreatespopularrecognitioncantechnicallybeconsideredcontentIP…butonlysomecontentIPsevolvetobecomefashion;evenfewerbecomeevergreeninnature

Source:Corporatereports,WikimediaCommons,Twitter/X,andBernsteinanalysis.

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

EXHIBIT18:Disneyfranchisesandclassicscontinuetogeneratevaluethroughremakesandsequels

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Source:DisneyandBernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT19:CreatingnewIPisdifficult,butonceestablishedmanytopIPshaveshownincrediblelongevity…thetop20globalIPsbyrevenuewerecreatedanaverageof45yearsago

MostvaluablemediaIPs

0

Pokémon(1996)

MickeyMouse&Friends(1928)

WinniethePooh(1924)

StarWars(1977)

DisneyPrincess(2000)

Anpanman(1973)

Barbie(1987)

WizardingWorld(1997)

MarvelCinematicUniverse(2008)

HelloKitty(1974)

CallofDuty(2003)

Batman(1939)

Spider-Man(1962)

Transformers(1984)

DungeonFighterOnline(2005)

Cars(2006)

CandyCrush(2012)

LooneyTunes(1930)

TeenageMutantNinjaTurtles(1984)

TheLionKing(1994)

02040608010012

Totalrevenue(US$bn)

Source:Companywebsites,news,andBernsteinanalysis.

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

FROMHUMANSCARCITYTOSCALABLEPRESENCEWHEREK.POPIPEXPANDS

K-popIPhasalreadycrossedthethresholdfromartist-centricbrandingtogloballyscaled,fandom-drivenplatforms,where

millionsofhighlyengagedfansco-owntheculturalrelevanceandcontinuouslyamplifydemand.Thiscreatesauniquely

powerfullaunchpadforhumanoidextension:amassive,emotionallyinvestedinstalledbasewithprovenhighwillingness-to-

payforaccess,intimacy,andstatus-drivenexperiences.Inthiscontext,humanoidembodimentsarenotspeculativetechadd-onsbutadirectmonetizationlever-translatingexistingattachmentintoalways-oninteraction,deeperpersonalization,andnew

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premiumlayersthatcanunlockincrementaldemand(Exhibit20).Thequestionisnotwhethertheaudienceexists,butwhetheramodelhistoricallybuiltonhumanscarcitycansuccessfullyevolvewhenthatscarcityisnolongerthebindingconstraint?

EXHIBIT20:K-popIPisanchoredinhumans-andthescarcityofartisttimeisitscorevalue.HumanoidsbasedonK-popIPcouldbeawaytotapintoagloballystickyfandombase.Buthere’sthequestion:dofanspaytolaughandcrylivewiththeirbias,orforarobotthatsimplylookslikethem?

Disclaimer:ThefollowingimagewasgeneratedusingAI(Copilot)basedonaprompttodepictahumanoid-stylerepresentationinspiredbyBTSJin,anddoesnotreflectanyrealindividual,endorsement,orofficiallikeness.

Source:Instagram,Bernsteinanalysis.

DienWang,Ph.D.+85221232622

dien.wang@

29June2026

COMPONENTSSUPPLIERS

ComparedwithhumanoidrobotOEMs,componentsuppliershaveaclearerandmorecertainpathtobuildingmoats.The

approachestheyhaveusedtoestablishmoatsintheirexistingmarkets(e.g.automotive,consumerelectronics,industrial)arelikelytocarryoverintohumanoidrobotics.Inaddition,componentsupplierstypicallyhavelongertrackrecords,makingtheircompetitiveness,corporategovernance,anddecision-makingcapabilitieseasiertoassessandvalidate.

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Webelievethemoatsofcomponentsuppliersinhumanoidroboticsmainlycomefromthreeareas:

•Superiorqualitycontrolinmassproduction.WhilemanyhumanoidrobotOEMsshowcasein-housecomponents,this

doesnotimplyreadinessfortruemassproduction.Asoutputrisesfromsmallbatchestomillionsofunits,maintaininghigh

qualitybecomesexponentiallydifficult,asanyminorvariationsinmaterials,equipment,environment,orexecutioncanleadtodefects