轻工制造行业2026年中期策略：需求压力下掘金供给逻辑与个股亮点

H2....................................................................................................................................7H2（一）回溯26H1：国补潮来基数承压，基本继续磨底 7（二）26H2展望：市场境持，政策拉动带来机 9（三）投资建议：注头部企变化 11..................................................................................................................12（一）木浆：价格位磨底，本端压力边际缓和 12（二）文化纸：供压力仍在价格底部震荡，关旺季修复 13（三）白卡纸：新供给压力大，底部震荡中等需求修复 14（四）箱板瓦楞纸改善最快价格落地情况较好旺季仍有价弹性 15（五）特种纸：部赛道格局善，关注成本拐点提价落地 16（六）投资建议：注供给格改善与成本拐点 16..............................................................................................................................................18（一）纸包装：主需求平稳成本低位与降本增支撑盈利善 18（二）金属包装：求稳定，业整合推动格局改善 19（三）包装企业转：围绕客、材料与制造能力展边界 20（四）投资建议：注主业稳与转型边际 22.....................................................................................................................................................23（一）成熟市场的长性：渠与产品红利变化，图扩张能边界 23（二）增量市场的长性：情经济+技术新，趋势呈大波动 26（三）传统消费：持稳定性期待消费改善 29（四）投资建议：优布局优企业边际变化 30..................................................................................................................................................31（一）H1部政治局势&成本素扰动，利润波动后续有望转 31（二）26H2展望：关税境稳，头部标的成长仍在 34（三）投资建议：注绩优个，把握多维成长阶段 37...................................................................................................................................................................................................38（一）家居行业下行 38（二）宏观经济波动 38（三）行业政策风险 381 ...................................................................................................................................................72 ...................................................................................................................................................73 ............................................................................................................................................74 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................................................................................................................................................................14/ ................................................................................................................................................................14%.................................................................................................................................................................14%.................................................................................................................................................................14/ ................................................................................................................................................................15/ ................................................................................................................................................................16/ 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45%1040%1035%30%25%20%15%2024-012024-032024-012024-032024-052024-072024-092024-112025-012025-032025-052025-072025-092025-112026-012026-035%0%27-2888101 10%26Q1 27-28112026221%1120262 257%4pct48% 2026257%4pct1112/ / -14%/-9%/-4%1112200,000180,000160,000140,000100,0000%80,000-5%100,0000%80,000-5%60,000-10%40,000-15%20,000-20%

20%15%10%5%20162017201820162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203013130

80%60%40%20%0%

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50%40%30%20%10%0%

24Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q4 2026:2026:26H226H220252526Q12526Q125Q42526Q12526Q125Q4%%%%171860%50%40%171860%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%25%20%15%10%5%2015Q12015Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q12024Q32025Q12025Q32026Q122H2-23H1 Arauco UPM23H123 6242322-232525Q125Q12523H123 6242322-232525Q125Q1252026 6 22 48674458 / 2026||1980007500700065006000550050004500400020251120265.3%2017-011980007500700065006000550050004500400020251120265.3%262017-07262018-0112.7%20252018-0712.7%20252019-0162019-0762020-013.4%252020-073.4%2525222021-0125222021-0725Q112.1%2022-0125Q112.1%2022-072026/2023-012026/2023-0717.6%2024-0117.6%252024-072562025-01626Q12025-0726Q132026-0131.0%1.3%22-23207500700065006000550050004500400035003000241.0%1.3%22-2320750070006500600055005000450040003500300024453844502017-07112018-01112018-072019-01/2019-07/252020-01252020-07“2021-01“20262021-0720262022-01”2022-07”/252023-01/252023-072024-012024-072025-012025-07244.0%2026-01244.0%||2020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-012024-062024-112025-042025-092026-02218000750070006500600055005000450040002330%20%10%0%2020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-012024-062024-112025-042025-092026-02218000750070006500600055005000450040002330%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%1.4%1.4%/%2026/%20265566221.8%221.8%20256202562020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-012024-062024-112025-042025-092026-0222800075007000650060005500500045002020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-012024-062024-112025-042025-092026-02228000750070006500600055005000450040002430%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%261.1%1.1%40384038///%/%2022-0720262022-07202625255.1%5.1%256 8.0%22.7%|256 8.0%22.7%|//110001000011000100009000800070006000500040003000202526520262025265202637663104 / 2026 1.7%6.4% 54.3%10.5%4.3%10.5%||266500600055005000450040003500300028140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%266500600055005000450040003500300028140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%//%%276000550050004500400035003000250027600055005000450040003500300025002000//2026202633|| ||100080060040020000100080060040020000300%250%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%0150100500-50-100150100500-50-100

2018-03AI29312018-09AI29312019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-092024-032024-092025-032025-0930203020100-10-20-30-4030300002500020000150001000050000322018-0330300002500020000150001000050000322018-0925Q4-26Q12019-0325Q4-26Q12019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-03AI2023-09AI2024-032024-092025-032025-0916141614121086420-2||0%26Q1/26Q1/353635360

6000450030001500

8%0%-8%0201720182019202020212022202320242025

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8006004002000

201620172018201920202021202220232024Bloomberg

8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%++++326M126M226M326M426M5115.48%15.32%17.39%18.28%17.80%29.46%11.35%12.39%8.65%10.34%38.49%7.57%7.37%6.80%8.70%46.48%7.31%6.92%6.77%8.44%56.26%5.81%6.60%6.20%7.75%66.09%5.41%6.45%6.13%6.27%75.89%5.20%5.27%6.05%5.52%85.48%4.88%4.02%5.39%5.23%95.32%4.82%3.97%5.32%4.41%426M126M226M326M426M5113.99%17.94%21.78%19.65%15.65%212.38%10.41%12.34%9.68%10.90%35.89%8.81%8.58%8.76%9.39%45.72%6.73%5.03%7.73%7.99%55.37%4.93%4.05%3.92%5.39%64.18%4.54%3.38%3.72%5.18%74.06%2.85%3.36%3.42%5.12%83.91%2.68%2.81%3.32%3.02%93.56%2.52%2.65%2.97%2.92%2434424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q170%434424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q160%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%

350300250200150100500

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025Bloomberg

8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%526M126M226M326M426M5110.03%10.05%9.80%14.55%17.11%28.84%9.61%9.09%9.78%11.45%38.27%9.46%8.73%8.30%9.81%47.45%8.67%8.73%8.14%9.07%57.30%6.87%7.37%7.44%7.43%67.04%6.57%7.29%6.82%7.04%76.98%6.47%6.31%6.04%6.71%884.21%4.58%3.20%4.02%3.52%626M126M226M326M426M5110.27%16.89%14.33%11.59%10.00%29.63%9.56%9.43%9.25%9.97%36.53%7.25%6.95%7.26%6.76%45.30%6.24%5.47%5.17%5.95%54.99%5.15%5.15%4.71%5.37%64.99%4.17%3.60%4.56%4.80%74.59%3.73%3.46%3.78%4.43%83.67%3.45%3.42%3.64%4.33%++IP4546Z1IP4546ZZZBCG2023IPIPBCG2023IPIPCIC3D6020303DGMVCIC3D6020303DGMVIPIPIPIPAI2AIAIAIAI++AIAIAIAI++AI///+AI47AI33D3D33D3DGMV 2025 272 2026-2030 CAGR 33.2%3D3D482021-2025482021-2025CAGR 2026E-2030ECAGR1.935.2%33.9%4.135.5%34.8%1.537.9%31.0%34.2%27.5%3.27.335.6%33.2%2.90.20.60.41.334.3252015100.60.7..30.4CICCIC

2022

2023

2025

2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E3D3DAI3D3DAIMakerWorldThingiversePrintablesMyMiniFactoryCrealityCloud3D73D3D73D//MakerWorld

Bambu

20251,0007,0002.9BambuStudioBambu8003D1,0007,0002.9BambuStudioBambu8003DThingiverse

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