中烟香港烟叶进出口基本盘稳固出海长期空间广阔

1......................................................................................................................................................................................522026 7 3 .....................................................................................................................................63.............................................................................................................................................................64..........................................................................................................................................................65.............................................................................................................................................................76.................................................................................................................................................................77%............................................................................................................................................88%..............................................................................................................................................................892011-2024 ............................................................................................................................................9102011-2023 ........................................................................................................................................................9112011-2025 ..................................................................................................................................................10122011-2025 ..................................................................................................................10132011-2024 ...........................................................................................................................................11142007-2021 ...............................................................................................................................................12152000-2022 ......................................................................................................................................................13162015-2023 ......................................................................................................................................................13172007-2021 ...............................................................................................................................................13182019-2023 ...........................................................................................................................................14192020-2025 ..................................................................................................................15202020-2025 .............................................................................................1621...........................................................................................................................................17222025 %...................................................................................................................................18232025 %...................................................................................................................................1824HNB 1925%.......................................................................................20262020-2025 ........................................................................................................21272020-2025 ......................................................................................................................22282011-2025JT 24292011-2025JT 24302020-2025 ........................................................................................................................................25312021-2025 ....................................................................................................................................2632.....................................................................................................................................................................261HNB................................................................................................................................................182...............................................................................................................................................................203...............................................................................................................................224JT..................................................................................................................................................235...................................................................................................256...........................................................................................................................................................27720260706 ......................................................................................................................................................29198920042018198920042018口业务型烟草制品口业务， ““”1172.29%22026220267 380.64/83.24/118.36/130.74/145.79 +131.67%/+3.23%/+42.19%/+10.46%/+11.51%2021-2025 7.03/3.75/5.99/8.54/9.8 +638.33/-46.66/+59.71/+42.58%/14.82%2021xiechen34xiechen34160140120100806040200

营收（亿港元） YOY(%)20182019202020212022202320242025

150%100%50%0%-50%-100%

12 YOY(%)108642020182019202020212022202320242025

700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%-100%-200% 2025//2025////24.81/95.38/16.66/0.64/8.29 202582%20252025202555160140120100806040200

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

20252021 202553.28/55.17/90.15/95.54/109.53 23202157.56% 70%23202124661601401201008060402002018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025+5.52%/+10.14%/+9.19%/+10.54%/+10.10%218.90%5.58%5.85%6.91%7.18%2177%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20252022-20252.62%2.73%4.07%6.31%11.98%9.07%10.00%8.09%10.41%13.57%17.63%22.84%2.91%4.38%5.18%5.31%22.55%18.40%17.51%19.36%15%8%8%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%2021 2022 2023 2024H1 2024 20252024604.82202460%202459.9%+0.40% 225.8 -1.75%60%202459.9%2024202437.3%/12.0%/10.5%92011-2024 102011-20238006004002000

YOY(%)-

20%10%0%

80%60%40%20%0% 20142.61201420152016201520162016-2024 2.387.98%2.382.47CAGR 0.40%2025 2.47 +0.20%7.98%2.382.47112011-202526,500

YOY(%)4%26,00025,5002%26,00025,5002%25,0000%24,500-2%24,00023,50023,000-6%22,500

1/1/111/1/121/1/131/1/141/1/151/1/161/1/171/1/181/1/191/1/201/1/211/1/221/1/231/1/241/1/25

-8%-10%37.27 9.13%2024122011-20252024%YOY%40

40%35 30%30 20%25 10%20 0%15 -10%10 -20%5 -30%020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

-40%2024 2020 2022 13.58202419.992024

2011-16.45%132011-2024YOY(%)30

30%20%2510%200%15 -10%-20%10-30%5-40%020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

-50%570 /-100/570 /-100/16.5100 /30 /-70 /16.5 /-30 //20075.49% 100 /30 /-70 /16.5 /-30 //200729.88% 2007 7.32% 2021 200734.76%200732.32%20214.88% 2.44%32.32%2021142007-2021100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212000-2022 / 4.060 / CAGR 7.5% 2015 20230.440.6220220.440.622022152000-2022 162015-20234.543.532.521.510.50

YOY(%)//

201520162017201820192020202120222023 201720175.10% 34.30% 2017 2021172007-2021100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022202260.10%60.10%202050%202350%182019-2023202050%202350%

2019-2023 2023 11.722021-2023 14 90%12 80%70%1060%8 50%6 40%30%420%2 10%02019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

0%20252020-2025202524.81 202595.3815.6%2020-2025 5.1%95.3847.8%47.8%192020-2025YOY YOYYOYYOY%%120 300%%%100

250%200%80150%60100%4050%20 0%0

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-50%2020-2020-2025 19.24 24.81 55.56% 17.02%13.5195.38 38.81% 13.512020-2025 2.37% 6.31% 5.46%8.09%202522.84%20204.54% 2025 11.43%20258.09%202522.84%202019.36% 2021 3.91% 2025 5.69%(%)(%)202020-2025(%)(%)80% 14%(%)(%)70%(%)(%)

12%60%

10%50%8%40%6%30%4%20%10% 2%0%2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

0%2025212114000

FortuneBusinessInsights 20251058220262%203412848202378.5%10%109681058220262%203412848202378.5%10%202320231200010000800060004000200002025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034EFortuneBusinessInsights415344%FortuneBusinessInsights 2025415344%202519% 44%1793 202519% 44%23%14%6% 22%/18%23%14%6%/5%6%/5%222025%232025%222025%232025%11%19%11%19%44%26%23%42%6%6%5%19%FortuneBusinessInsights FortuneBusinessInsightsHNB2024HNBHNB1HNBHNB2024HNBHNB1HNBHNB(HNB()GlobalInformation,2025 HNB 203420252026-2034 21.62%20342025HNBHNBHNBHNBHNBHNBHNBHNBHNB 2025-2032202358%IQOS70%202440%242500202358%IQOS70%202440%24

200200HNBHNB50%HNB50%350HNBHNB3%350HNBHNB3%20001500100050002025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034EGlobalInformation““” 2020-2023202318011390%15%202318011390%15%%%25250 3.50%25200150

100

1.50%1.00%500.50%0

2021国内市场规模（亿元）

出口额（亿美元

国内渗透率

0.00%HNB10%HNBFDA(PMTA)FDAIQOS“”(FDA)HNBHNB10%HNBFDA(PMTA)FDAIQOS“”(FDA)HNB“”“”“”“”20212022≤20mg/gHNBHNB2027 “ ” 2030 8%28%2HNBHNBHNBHNBHNBHNB2021-20221.28/1.16 2023-2025 4.24/6.10/6.97875%2024-202512.09323.820%3315.74/16.66 202512.09323.820%33262020-20258.00

YOY

%300%%7.00

250%6.00

200%

2.00

50%1.00 0%0.00

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-50%HNBHNB200+202550200+2025502020-2025 20253.723.900.64 52.5% 3.723.9051.5%272020-20251.60

YOY

200%%%

0.80 50%0.600%0.40-50%0.200.00

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-100%202512 3121HNB=*1-3202512 3121HNB=*1-3 4JT4JT1904190419491999 JT 78 R.J.ReynoldsTobaccoCompany JapanTobaccoInternational,JTI751472007 GallaherGroup751472011 4.5 HagTobaccoFactoryLtd.Ploom2011Ploom4.755.97Gryson20124.755.97Gryson2013 7.5 Megapolis20%20132015 LogicTechnologyDevelopmentLLC2017 6.77 Kretek KaryadibyaMahardhikaSuryaMustikaNusantara 9.36 MightyCorporation2018 16 DonskoyTabakJT,JapanTobaccoInc.PMIBAT 2011-2018PMIJT 2020-2025202020202025 3.47 JT40%10.5%2024 2025 5132 181.1%JT40%JT60%NaturalAmericanSpirit JT60%Ploom282011-2025JT 292011-2025JT%4%3.532.521.510.50

YOY%20.00%20112012201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

YOY

35.0030.0025.0020.0015.0010.005.000.0020112012201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025352352JT JTJTJT“”2020-“”2020-2025 2021-2024 5% 202515800 2.3% 16570 3.5%52.452.40.53%CNTC 202115111511CNTC302020-202518000

YOY

%7.00%%6.0000%6.0000%100004.00%80003.00%60002.00%40002000

1.00%02020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0.00%55 20212021202120214.95“”“”201124.95“”“”201126202520213.1520248.292021-10.50 202520213.1520248.292021-2025 27% 202519.36%2025312021-202512.00 80%10.00 60%8.00 40%6.00 20%4.00 0%2.00 -20%0.00

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-40%%YOY%32322024-2025 130.74/145.79 +10.5%/+11.5%2024202520252026-2028 -12.2%/+9.4%/+10.0%1 2024-2025 20.62/24.81 +24.8%/+20.4%227.79/30.02/33.02 +12.0%/+8.0%/+10.0%22024-2025 82.54/95.38 +2.2%/+15.6%20252026202678.21-18.0%2027-2028 86.03/94.6478.21+10.0% 3 2024-2025 15.74/16.66+30.2%/+5.9%202420262026

12.83 -23.0% 202614.11/15.52 +10.0%20264 2024-2025 1.35/0.64 +4.0%/-52.5%2026-2028 -18.0%/+5.0%/+10.0% 5 2024-202510.50/8.29 +37.0%/-21.0%20252026-2028 8.70/9.40/10.34 +5.0%/+8.0%/+10.0%662024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E20622481277930023302(%)24.78%20.37%12.00%8.00%10.00%(%)4.07%6.31%8.00%8.00%8.00%82549538782186039464(%)2.17%15.56%-18.00%10.00%10.00%(%)10.00%8.09%8.09%8.09%8.09%15741666128314111552(%)30.19%5.89%-23.00%10.00%10.00%(%)(%)17.63%22.84%30.00%30.00%30.00%)4.00%-52.46%-18.00%5.00%10.00%(%)5.19%5.31%6.00%6.00%6.00%10508298709401034(%)36.98%-21.03%5.00%8.00%10.00%(%)17.51%19.36%21.00%21.00%22.00%1307514578128071401215412(%)10.46%11.51%-12.16%9.42%10.00%(%)10.54%10.10%11.14%11.14%11.21% 2024-2025 10.5%/10.1%2025 202610%202611.1%11.1%11.1%/11.1%/11.2% 1 4.1%/6.3%2026-20288.0%20251.7pp22024-202510.0%/8.1%20252026-202820258.1%32024-202517.6%/22.8%20262026-2028 30.0% 2025 ————4 2024-2025 20%52026-2028 6.0%20%52024-2025 2026-2028 21.0%/21.0%/22.0%2024-2025 1.21%/1.18% 1.54/1.33/1.46 1.20%/0.95%/0.95%2024-2025 1.48/1.63 2.08/1.582026-2028 0.06/0.13/0.19 0.72/0.62/0.562026-2028 128.07/140.12/154.13 /9.20/10.59/11.88 -6.1%/+15.1%/+12.1%EPS 1.33/1.53/1.72/ODM2026ODM2026720260710202620PE26.61 /“” 2025AEPS(/2026E)2027E2025APE2026E2027E06969.HK410.3262.3129.2419.1100336.HK97.8-2-16.6611.63HNBHNB::2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E9,3728,4928,7189,85710,4726291,0351,4061,0231,1175172795081,2011,3019031,0479701,1261,26173968762668575455565555555,4264,0624,1194,5074,954-3774290-220-2552,6903,4643,4643,4643,46498-5926256444482427372317-460-527-2000413933282200-200000000-19-7000350339290240191-579-694000531041041041041381730009,8178,9739,14410,22810,789-164-751-1,157-330-1,0176,5345,0534,5844,9314,666412-1540002,9482,7662,0102,1301,605000003,4202,1172,4042,6302,891-325-346-338-389-436167170170170170-251-251-81958-5819574747474-53-238229693100000005715172795081,20195747474745172795081,2011,3016,6295,1274,6575,0044,7401,4041,4041,4041,4041,404