2026年二季度美国风险投资生态系统的权威回顾2026

Q2

2026

Venture

Monitor

ThedefinitivereviewoftheUSventurecapitalecosystem

Sponsoredby

pitchBooKnvca

Contents

Marketoverview4

NVCApolicyhighlights7

Dealmaking8

AwordfromJ.P.Morgan11

Regionalspotlight13

AI14

Femalefounders16

AwordfromDentonsGlobalVentureTechnologyGroup18

Investortrends21

Venturedebt23

AwordfromEisnerAmper26

Exits29

Fundraising31

Methodology33

References

3

4

Sponsoredby

J.P·Morgan

EisNERAMPER

PitchBookData,Inc.

NIZARTARHUNIExecutiveVicePresident,Research&MarketIntelligencePAULCONDRASeniorDirector,GlobalHeadofPrivateMarketsResearch

Analysis

KYLESTANFORD,CAIADirector,VCResearch

EMILYZHENGSeniorResearchAnalyst,VentureCapitalKAIDIGAOSeniorResearchAnalyst,VentureCapital

pbinstitutionalresearch@

Data

CALEBWILKINSDataAnalyst

Publishing

ReportandcoverdesignbyJENNAO’MALLEY,JOSIEDOAN,andADRIANAHANSEN

NationalVentureCapitalAssociation(NVCA)

BOBBYFRANKLINPresident&CEO

SHILOHTILLEMANN-DICKResearchDirectorEVANKELLERDirectorofCommunicationsKYLIELAPSLEYSpecialProjectsManager

ContactNVCA

nvca@

J.P.MorganCommercialBanking

ANDREWKRESSECo-HeadofInnovationEconomyJOHNCHINACo-HeadofInnovationEconomy

CARLYRODDYCo-HeadofVentureCapitalRelationshipsGINGERCHAMBLESSHeadofMarketInsights

ContactJ.P.Morgan

/innovationeconomy

DentonsGlobalVentureTechnologyandEmergingGrowthCompaniesGroup

VICTORH.BOYAJIANGlobalChair

ContactDentons

victor.boyajian@

EisnerAmper

PETERCOGANManagingPartner,FinancialServices

ContactEisnerAmper

/vc

peter.cogan@

2PITCHBOOK-NVCAVENTUREMONITOR

J.P·Morgan

Wearethebankoftheinnovationeconomy

We’reheretohelpyougrow—ateverystage.Decadesofventureexpertise,anexpansiveinvestornetworkandsolutionsthatevolvewithyourbusiness.

©2026JPMorganChase&Co.Allrightsreserved.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.Member

FDIC.Visit/cb-disclaimer

forfulldisclosuresanddisclaimersrelatedtothiscontent.3252092

Exploreourstartup

bankingsolutionsat/InnovationEconomy

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Marketoverview

llkl()

DespiteSpaceXIPO,marketvaluestilloutweighscumulativeexitvalue

CumuativeVCexitvaueversusVCmaretvaue$T$12

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

CumulativeVCexitvalueAllVCmarketvalue

SpaceXwasthecenteroftheVC

universeinH1.Its$1.7trillionIPOwasthelargestUSVC-backedtechIPO

by17xandthelargestIPOofalltime.

However,theannounced$60billion

purchaseofCursor,a4-year-oldcodingstartup,andthe$250billionmerger

withxAIinQ1havemadeSpaceXthe

ultimate“kingmaker”inVC.Overall,

themarkethasstillstruggledtounlockIPOs,andfewM&Adealsoutsideof

healthcarehavebeennotable.The

distributionsthatwillbegeneratedfromtheSpaceXIPOandeventuallyfromthexAIandCursoracquisitionswillreachabroaderinvestorbasethannormalforthreecompaniesbecauseofSpaceX’ssizeanduseofsecondaries,buttheydonotsignalareopenedliquiditymarket.

Thisisthelikelystoryforthenext

coupleofquarters.Anthropicand

OpenAIhaveconfidentiallyfiledfor

IPOs.ThoseIPOswilllikelyaddtwo

moretrillion-dollarexitsbyVC-backedcompanies.AlongwiththeSpaceXIPO,theseexitswillgeneratemorevalue

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

IPOshavefallenwellshortofexpectationsPredictedversusactualIPOratesofVCTimetoExitModel

201811.9%13.2%

20199.0%9.5%

202013.5%13.9%

2021Exitwindowcloses27.5%32.3%

202210.3%26.2%

20237.0%12.7%

20246.8%19.4%

20258.5%20.1%

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%

PredictedActual

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

thanallUSVC-backedexitssince2000.Thatwouldmorethanmakeupforthelackofliquiditythemarkethasenduredoverthepastfewyears,butalarge

portionofinvestorsandtheirLPswill

notseedistributionsfromthosedeals.ThesedealsarethegreatestexampleoftheVCpowerlawandareminderthat

afewgoodexitsdonotmakeagreatliquiditymarket.IntrueVCfashion,thenextquestionis:Whathappensnext?Thenext10largestunicornswould

generate$843billioninexitvalueif

theywereascribeda40%step-upinvaluationatIPO.However,noneof

thosecompanieshaspositioneditself

5PITCHBOOK-NVCAVENTUREMONITOR

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NotallunicornsarereadytoIPOEstimatedtimestoexitforselecttopunicorns

Company

Valuation

estimate($B)

Lastknownpost-money

valuation($B)

1-yearIPO

probability

3-yearIPO

probability

Announcedexit

City

Verticals

VCraisedtodate($B)

Anthropic

$1,014.2

$965.0

76.9%

84.9%

IPO

SanFrancisco

AI&machinelearning(ML),

BigData,softwareasaservice(SaaS)

$124.3

OpenAI

$905.2

$852.0

89.2%

93.2%

IPO

SanFrancisco

AI&ML,BigData,mobile,SaaS

$181.9

Stripe

$168.9

$159.0

44.5%

87.3%

N/A

SouthSan

Francisco

AI&ML,fintech,mobile,SaaS

$8.7

Databricks

$146.9

$134.0

5.0%

39.3%

N/A

SanFrancisco

AI&ML,BigData,mobile,SaaS

$22.4

Waymo

$138.5

$126.0

3.6%

26.8%

N/A

MountainView

AI&ML,autonomouscars,mobilitytech,mobile

$27.1

Anduril

Industries

$63.9

$61.0

3.6%

18.5%

N/A

CostaMesa

Augmentedreality,AI&ML,robotics&drones

$11.9

Ripple

$46.3

$40.0

8.3%

40.0%

N/A

SanFrancisco

B2Bpayments,cryptocurrency/blockchain,fintech,SaaS

$0.8

Ramp

$45.2

$44.0

5.9%

36.1%

N/A

NewYork

AI&ML,fintech,mobile,SaaS

$3.5

Cognition

$27.0

$26.0

5.7%

26.5%

N/A

SanFrancisco

AI&ML,SaaS

$1.7

Rippling

$21.6

$16.8

14.6%

75.2%

N/A

SanFrancisco

AI&ML,HRtech,SaaS

$1.9

ClickHouse

$17.2

$15.0

2.4%

26.0%

N/A

SanFrancisco

AI&ML,BigData,cloudtech&developmentoperations,SaaS

$1.0

Devoted

$14.5

$13.0

6.7%

22.9%

N/A

Waltham

Digitalhealth,healthtech,

insurtech,LOHAS&wellness

$2.7

ShieldAI

$13.9

$12.7

6.8%

33.8%

N/A

SanDiego

Advancedmanufacturing,AI&ML,BigData,robotics&drones

$2.8

Notion

$12.1

$11.0

4.1%

19.5%

N/A

SanFrancisco

AI&ML,mobile,SaaS

$0.3

Polymarket

$10.7

$15.0

6.6%

37.7%

N/A

NewYork

AI&ML,fintech,mobile,SaaS

$1.9

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

tobethenextIPO.AndthepipelineofunicorntechIPOsislimited,at

leastwhenlookingatthosecurrentlyinregistration.

Unicornformationhasnotbeenlimited,however,whichhaswidenedthegap

betweenpapervaluecreationandexitvaluerealization.Despitethetrillion-

dollarIPOs,thereremainsaprice

imbalancebetweenthepublicand

privatemarkets.Thatisamajorreason

whyagingunicornshavenotlookedtogopublic.Thecontinuedavailability

ofcapitalforprivateinvestments

furtherexacerbatesthatimbalance,

whichlowerinterestrateswilllikelynotalleviate.Publicmarketshaveremainedstable,andindexescontinuetoreachnewhighsdespitesteadyinterestrates.

Proposedlegislationtocreatea

smoothertransitionbetweentheprivatemarketandthepublicmarketismaking

itswaythroughtheapprovalprocess.Increasingoff-the-shelfofferingsandlimitedreportingrequirementsarethemainpointsofthelegislation.These

changesareastart,buttheyalonewilllikelynotprovidetheincentiveforhigh-growth,highlycovetedcompaniestogopublic,atleastfortopstartups.

Thepitfallsofdelayedliquidityare

easilytrackedthroughthe2021cycle.Privatecapitalwasplentifulthen,but

6PITCHBOOK-NVCAVENTUREMONITOR

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$1billion+IPOsdrivethemajorityofannualexitvalues$1billion+IPOvalueasashareofallVCexitvalue

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

$1B+IPOvalue($B)VCexitvalue($B)$1B+IPOshareofallVCexitvalue

81.2%

34.8%

$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

sowasliquiditywithanabundance

ofSPACs,ahighvolumeofIPOs,and

astrongM&Amarket.PitchBook’s

TimetoExitModelshowsthatmore

companiescompletednewlistings

thanwereexpectedin2019,2020,

and2021,andbyasignificantmargin.However,thestrongfinancingmarketofthoseyearsledtomanymore

unicornsthaneverbefore.Andmany

ofthosecompaniesoptedinsteadto

raisemoreprivatefundingbecauseitwasavailable,andprobablyatahighervaluationthananexitmayhaveoffered.Butnowtheyarestuckintheprivate

marketwithfeweroptionsforliquidity.Thoseunabletoraisecapitalsince

haveseenasignificantdegradationintheirvalue.

Liquiditybenefitsarenotlimitedto

SpaceX,Anthropic,andotherlarge

unicorns,butthereturnsarenot

headline-worthy.Nomatterthepower-lawdynamics,liquiditygenerated

throughmidsizeunicornscanstillprovidestrongreturns,andthesecompaniesaremoreakintopublicmarketcompaniesthanthehigh-

MostlargetechofferingsdonotimmediatelyperformwellPost-IPOperformanceof10largesttechIPOs

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

6month

SNOW

HOOD

3monthCPNG

LYFT

2monthUBER

WRBY

DebutMETA

SNAP

monthRIVN

DASH

12month

IPO

1

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

revenue,high-losscompaniesnear

thetopofthemarket.Forinvestors

notonthecaptablesofthemega-

unicorns,thetimingofdistributions

fromtheirportfoliosisakeypiece

ofinformationthatcaninformfund-

reservemanagementandshapereturnexpectationsandthenarrativetoLPs.Ifrelaxedreportingregulationscan

restarttheIPOpipeline,thebenefitswill

haveawidereach.PricediscoveryforM&Awillbeenhanced,publiccompswillenrichsecondaryduediligence,andtheliquiditygeneratedwillreturnmoneytoLPs’handstorecycleinto

newventurefunds.Untilthen,liquidityremainstightasprivatemarket

valuationsballoon.

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NVCApolicyhighlights

Taxes:Federaltaxpolicyremainsunsettled,withnomajorpackageexpectedinthenearterm,thoughsmallerprovisionscouldstill

movethroughreconciliationorlatervehicles.Carriedintereststaysanactiverevenue-

offsetrisk,andcapitalgainsindexing

continuestofacepoliticalheadwinds.TheDepartmentoftheTreasuryisnowtargetingQualifiedSmallBusinessStock“truststacking.”

Capitalmarkets:TheSecuritiesand

ExchangeCommission’sagendaaccelerated,withproposalstoraisetheFormPFfiling

threshold,permitoptionalsemiannual

reporting,streamlinefilerstatusto

easedisclosureforallbutthelargest

issuers,andexpandshelfregistrationand

communicationsflexibilitysothatmore

issuerscanraisecapitalquickly.The

FinancialCrimesEnforcementNetwork

(FinCEN)separatelyproposedrisk-based

anti-money-launderingmodernization;NVCAcontinuestoopposeadvisorburdenswhileviewingthereformdirectionasconstructive.Mergerandcompetitionpolicy:The

DepartmentofJustice’santitrustleadershipremainsinflux,trendingtowardlighter-touchenforcement,assignaledbytheapprovaloftheParamountSkydanceandWarnerBros.Discoverydeal.Apermanentdivisionheadisexpectedtobenominated.ParticipantsarealsowatchingtheFederalTradeCommissionforrevisedHart-Scott-RodinoguidelinesafteracourtstruckdowntheBiden-eraforms.

Blockchainandcrypto:TheCLARITYAct

clearedtheSenateBankingCommitteebutstilllacksafloorvoteasillicit-financeandethicsprovisionsstallprogressbeforetheAugustcongressionalrecessandmidtermpivot.Meanwhile,thepost-GENIUS-Act

build-outaccelerated,withstablecoin-issuerrulesfromtheOfficeoftheComptroller

oftheCurrency,FDIC,andFinCEN

spanningBankSecrecyActandsanctions

requirements,butdigital-assettaxalignmentremainsunfinished.

AI:Lawmakersaretestingcompeting

oversightmodels.ThebipartisanGreat

AmericanAIActwouldsetfederalguardrailswhiletemporarilypre-emptingstateAI

laws—centralforstartupsfacingagrowingregulatorypatchwork—butdrewimmediatepushbackoncivilrightsandpre-emption.Congressstayedbipartisanonchildsafety,deepfakes,andsynthetic-contentlabeling,whiletheTrumpadministrationfavored

voluntarycoordinationoverlicensing.

AIinfrastructurebecamethefocalpoint

ofdiscussionsaboutdatacenterenergy

demand,gridreliability,andconsumerpowercosts,alongsideproposalsfornewAIanddatacentertaxes.

Nationalsecurityandemergingtech:

Federalpolicycontinuesshiftingtoward

commercial-first,fasteracquisitionand

closerDepartmentofDefensealignment

withventure-backeddual-use,AI,and

autonomycompanies.ReformadvancedattheCommitteeonForeignInvestmentintheUnitedStatesviaaKnownInvestorProgramandnarrowerfilingtriggers,withChinese

competitionshapingtechnology,capital,

exports,andsupplychains.TheTrump

administrationreleasedacyberstrategy

emphasizingprivate-sectorthreatresponseandisexploringanationalroboticsstrategytiedtoreshoringandtrustedsuppliers.

Critically,SmallBusinessInnovation

Research/SmallBusinessTechnology

Transferreauthorizationrestoresearly-stagenondilutiveresearch&developmentfundingthrough2031withcommercializationand

securityreforms.

HealthcareandIP:FoodandDrug

Administration(FDA)modernization

prioritizesspeedandclarity,including

theproposedRAPIDcoveragepathway

aligningFDAreviewwithearlierCentersforMedicare&MedicaidServicescoverageforcertainBreakthroughDevices,pluslifecycleworkonAI-enableddevices.ThePatent

andTrademarkOfficeadvancedapro-IP

agenda—includingAI-assistedprior-art

search,antifraudscreening,andbacklog

reduction—asattentioncenteredonPatentTrialandAppealBoardrulechanges.Patentcertaintyremainsmaterialforlifesciencesandroboticsformationandfinancing,evenasstartupsflagapprovaltimelinesand

reimbursementuncertainty.

Energy:Policystaysfocusedon

implementation,permitting,andexecutingexistingincentivesratherthannew

legislation.AIanddatacentergrowthare

drivingdemandtowardfirm,dispatchable

power—suchasnuclear,geothermal,and

long-durationstorage—whilepermitting

delays,interconnectionqueues,and

transmissionconstraintsthreaten

commercializationtimelines.Speedtopowerandincentivedurabilityarebecomingcentralunderwritingconsiderations.

BobbyFranklin

President&CEO,NVCA

BobbyFranklinisthePresident&CEOofNVCA,theventurecommunity’stradeassociationfocusedonempoweringthenextgenerationoftransformativeUS-basedcompanies.BasedinWashington,DC,withanofficeinSanFrancisco,NVCAactsasthevoiceoftheUSVCandstartupcommunitybyadvocatingforpublicpolicythatsupportstheUSentrepreneurialecosystem.

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Dealmaking

H12026dealvaluealreadyexceeds2025full-yearfigurebynearly30%VCdealactivity

18,303

15,475

$236.6$166.2

20222023

Estimateddealcount

14,221

14,023

$156.3$176.1

20192020

Dealvalue($B)

19,699

$358.6

2021

Dealcount

16,348

$319.2

2025

15,407

$215.2

2024

12,943

$149.7

2018

12,124

$93.7

2017

11,338

$83.7

2016

9,646

$412.7

2026

InH12026,venturedollarscontinued

toflowunevenly.Megadeals(roundsof$100millionormore)madeup87.5%

ofthe$412.7billiondeployed.That

half-yeartotalalreadyexceedsthe2025full-yearfigure.Dealsunder$100milliondrew$51.4billion,andtheirshareof

valuehascompressedconsistentlyandsharplyovertheyears,from43.8%in

2024to33.1%in2025and12.5%thisyear,furtherevidenceofhowhighly

capitalhasconcentratedatthetop

ofthemarket.Q2’ssevenroundsat

orabove$1billion—fromAnthropic,

PrometheusIndustries,Anduril

Industries,Baseten,MiRus,Kalshi,andCognition—totaled$87.2billion.FivewereforAIcompanies,asignofAI’sdominanceamongthelargestrounds.Anthropic’s$65billionroundmarkeda157.1%pre-moneyvaluationstep-upto$900billionfrom$350billionthreemonthsearlierandlifteditspost-

moneyvaluationto$965billion,aheadofOpenAI’s.

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

Q22026’sdealvalueisthesecondhighestinadecade,trailingonlyQ1

VCdealactivitybyquarter

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1

202120222023202420252026

Dealvalue($B)DealcountEstimateddealcount

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

AIcontinuedtodefinetheventure

marketinH12026.ThetotalAIdealvalueof$355.9billionmadeup86%ofallventuredollarsintheperiod.Thecompaniesdrivingthelargestprivateroundsarenowmovingtowardpublic

markets:OpenAIandAnthropicthroughconfidentialIPOfilings,andxAIthroughitsacquisitionbySpaceX,whichhas

listed.Theexitsofthesemega-roundissuersthinthenear-termpipelineof

roundsatthisscale,thoughtheydonot

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hhfldhdld

Tesareoate-stageanventure-growteasipsQoQ

QuarterlyshareofVCdealcountbystage

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

202120222023202420252026

VenturegrowthLate-stageVCEarly-stageVCPre-seed/seed

necessarilysignaltheendofoutsizedfinancingsoftensofbillionsofdollars.Thenextfewquartersshouldsurfacethelatestbatchofcompaniesableto

commandthatkindofcapital:namesfamiliartoinvestorseveniftheydonotyetcarrythebroadpublicrecognitionofAnthropicorOpenAI.

AImaintaineditsdominanceinthetechsector,anextensionofayearslong

trend.Theshiftisstructural.AIhas

loweredthecosttobuildtech,with

AIcodingtoolsspeedingupproduct

developmentandfoundationmodels

givingfoundersabaselayertodevelopuponwithouthavingtotraintheirownmodels.Thetalentthatcanbuildatthefrontier,though,isscarceandclusteredontheWestCoast,particularlytheBayArea,soifcapitalkeepsfollowingthattalent,valuecreationinAImaystay

geographicallyconcentrated.First-

timefinancingsreachedanestimated5,674dealsinH12026,puttingthe

yearonpacetoseemorethan10,000companiesraisingtheirfirstventureround,whichwouldbearecord.

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

Dealsover$50millionmakeupanunprecedentedlyhighshareoftotaldealvalue

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

$50M+

$25M-$50M

$10M-$25M

$5M-$10M

$1M-$5M<$1M

ShareofVCdealvaluebysizebucket

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

Valuationshavenotjustrecovered

fromthe2022-to-2023correction;theyhavepushedpasttheir2021highsateveryseries.Themedianpre-moneyvaluationmorethandoubledrelativeto2021atpre-seed,seed,andSeriesD+.Amongthemiddlestages,SeriesCcameclosestat95%,followedby

SeriesAat89.9%andSeriesBat83.3%.Thedriverdiffersfromthatofthe2021surge.Then,lowratesandabundant

liquidityliftedvaluationsbroadly.Now,AIisthemainforceasexpectationsoffastrevenuegrowthandmarketcapturepushthelargestvaluationshigherandsetcomparablesacrossstages.That

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2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

MedianSeriesD+pre-moneyvaluationalready

morethandouble2025level

MedianVCpre-moneyvaluation($M)byseries$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0

SeedABC

$546.0$188.3$64.0

D+

$850.0

$296.0$141.5

$48.5

$2,031.4

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

Mediandealvaluecontinuestoascendacrossallseriesexceptforseed

MedianVCdealvalue($M)byseries

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

$150.0

$74.0

$40.0

$19.4$3.0

$160

$140

$120

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

$0

SeedABCD+

$100.0

$50.0

$30.0

$14.0$3.5

PitchBook-NVCAVentureMonitor•AsofJune30,2026

relianceonasinglethemeraisestheriskofabroadcorrectionifAIgrowthorreturnsfallshort.Thepowerlawofventurecompoundstherisk:EvenifAIdelivers,returnswillconcentrateinasmallnumberofwinners,sofundingawidefieldatelevatedpricesleavesmanyofthoseentriesexposed.

Manyofthelargestroundsare

structuredintranches,ortheyfoldinpriorcommitments.Forinstance,$15billionofAnthropic’s$65billionroundwascommittedearlier,sothefigure

citedinmediaheadlinesoverstatedthenewmoneygoingintothecompany.

Thepost-moneyvaluation,usuallythehighestmarkintheround,isnotthepriceeveryinvestorpays.Thatfigure

canbemisleading:Itreflectsthetop

valuationintheround,notacommonentryprice,anditcanoverstatethe

momentumbehindacompany.Ina

marketthiscompetitive,thosemarkscanintensifythescrambletogetontothecaptablesofthemostsought-afterAIcompanies.

Thegapbetweenprivateandpublicvaluationsremainsanobstacle.

Evenwithpublicindexesnearrecord

highs,listingshavebeenlimited,and

severalrecentonespricedbelowtheirlastprivaterounds.Investorsacross

stageshavequestionedwhethereverycompanycarryingahighvaluationcanreachthe$1billion+outcomeitimplies.Highentrypricesraisethebarforthe

growthandexitsneededtojustifythem,andsomeofthesecompanieswill

notclearit.

Thenextsixmonthswilltestthese

bets.Companiesthatraisedatelevatedpricesoncompressedtimelinesneedtoshowfastgrowthtojustifytheir

valuationsandraiseagain,orthey

riskadownround.Themega-IPOof

SpaceXandthependingonesfrom

OpenAIandAnthropicwillreveal

whetherpublicinvestorswillvalidateprivatemarks.Thetimebetween

roundshascompressed,especiallyforAIcompanies,sothemarginforerroristhin,andinvestorsandtheirLPswillbewatchingforgrowththatmeets

elevatedexpectations.

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AWORDFROMJ.P.MORGAN

Ourviewsonventure

Recordventurevolumesaremaskingongoingliquiditychallengesfor

manystartups

Theventurelandscapecontinuestobe

shapedbyahandfulofhigh-profilemega-rounds.Thisisdrivingoverallinvestment

valuestonewrecords,butnotbroadaccesstocapitalacrosstheecosystem.The

concentrationofinvestmentintoAIstartupshasbeenunprecedented,reflectingboththecapital-intensivenessoftheAIsectorandindustryconsensusaroundthewholesaleimpactofAItechnology.

Withthisbackdrop,weareseeingVC

strategiessplitintotwobusinessmodels.Ononeend,GPsarerunningconcentrated,high-convictionpositionsinasmallsetoffrontierAIcompanies.Thisincreasinglyresemblesprivateinfrastructurefinance:verylarge

checks;longdurations;andanemphasisonplatformcontrol,computeaccess,andecosystempositioning.Thestrategyhereistobuildallocationsinperceivedfundreturnersandcategorywinners.

Ontheotherend,managersareallocatingexclusivelytoearly-stageandAI-native

companieswithaclassicportfolio-

constructionapproach.Thereisoptimismamongearly-stageinvestorsthatimprovedexitmarketmomentumwillunlockafreshcropoffounderstostartnewcompanies

soon.Inthemeantime,weareseeingmorenontechnicalfoundersentertheearly-stage-formationmixasAItoolscontinuetolowerthebarrierstoentry.

ForstartupsthatdonotalignwithoneoftheseactiveVCstrategies—astrongand

differentiatedAIstorytotell,oraperceivedcategorywinnerintheirspace—liquidity

GingerChambless

HeadofMarketInsights,CommercialBanking,J.P.Morgan

GingerChamblessisaManagingDirectorandHeadofMarketInsightsforJPMorganChaseCommercialBanking.Inthis

role,sheproducescuratedthoughtleadershipcontentfor commercialbankingclientsand